China and the Philippines: Asia's next hot war? | DW News Desk

the potential for for outright conflict is much higher now than it was before and it uh we worry in the Philippines because it could come from not not a strategic decision by anyone saying okay we're going to war but just by making some some serviceman making a mistake and that was a comment from the president of the Philippines Ferdinand Marcos bong bong Jr here last week to a reporter at ABC News Australia that comment caused a massive stir in his country and Beyond including the neighbors and possibly the United States you're watching news desk and uh this is a weekly conversation where we take one uh topic dive deep into it take your contributions and hopefully walk away with a better understanding of what's happening my name is Melissa Chan yeah and I'm Alex Forest Whiting and I'll be paying special attention to what you're putting in the chat trying to bring your comments to life to our discussion also putting some of your questions to our great experts who will be joining us a little bit later and I must say a big thank you to the hundreds of you who had already uh posted some of your comments uh on uh the on what we had put up earlier and a quick hello to uh canones Elanor who wrote can we please stop living in interesting times and I think that kind of sums it all up isn't it an underplay definitely interesting times crazy times maybe but yeah thanks very much for being here and I'll be keeping an eye on everything you've got to say yeah so this week uh these comments from buang bang left us wondering everyone talks about a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan uh the global concern seems to be uh around the Taiwan Straits but what if the hot War actually happened elsewhere in Asia in Southeast Asia so this week's big question is China and the Philippines Asia's Next Hot War and joining us around this table for DW we have got to my right we have Michelle Stockman and she is our reporter she will be helping us keep up to date with the latest of what's been going on and why we're discussing it this week across from me on the table we have Jared Reed everyone Hi he's also going to be in the chat along with me keeping helping me actually a little bit and also um commenting um for some of your questions putting in important links um so thanks very much for doing that we couldn't do this without you and the man we really couldn't do this without is Dustin Hine he is in our control room you can't see him we can hear him when he speaks to us he's very important to all this because he's our producer so that is US yeah and in a few minutes beaming in from Asia we'll have two experts incredible people who'll be able to answer your questions our questions about what is going on uh on the high seas in southeast Asia we have Colin Co senior fellow at The Institute of defense and strategic studies at the s rer rajaratnam school of international studies in Singapore and we also have Richard hadarian A an author a columnist and a political scientist usually out of Manila he's joining us from Osaka and he's also an indopacific expert yeah and um I must just pick up on a quick comment that has come in from Adrian Gare why are two women talking instead of men like it should be I know you're joking we're all laughing we're all laughing um anyway we do want your questions and your comments hopefully um you will be you know behind the women who are leading this discussion um but particularly if you have got some comments for our two special guests Richard and Colin and to kick things off we've actually got a poll question um that we have put out and we'd love it if you could vote and you can see it obviously on your screen but I just read it anyway what is more likely a Chinese conf with the Philippines or a Chinese conflict with Taiwan a is with the Philippines B is with Taiwan C there will be no conflict so do please vote on that because it would be great uh to see what you say and thank you Adrian he's put LOL so yeah we're all laughing here yeah I'll be very curious about the the poll numbers um but uh look before we get to our guests from Asia Michelle I know you've been working on this and preparing a 101 sort of the base BS for anyone who doesn't really understand what's going on right okay well let a woman take it away here uh let's go back to those comments from president Marcos they came just after what is a long series of Maritime incidents on the South China Sea between China and the Philippines who have competing sovereignty claims on the South China Sea and so I'm going to bring up a map here on my laptop to show all of you out there uh the context behind this conflict and why these run-ins keep on happening so here is the South China Sea that's what the UN calls it of course other countries with coasts along this Waterway have decided to name portions of it different names such as the Philippines calls a portion of it the West Philippine Sea but for today's discussion we're going to go with the UN with the UN name but this is a very important body of water uh it's got vital trade routs fish oil and gas deposits strategic military outposts and so the latest encounter that we're talking about between the Philippines in China happened right around here which is called the second Thomas sh so there was a Philippines resupply ship that was headed out to Marines who are stationed on a scuttled World War II era ship basically guarding the Philippines claim to this at and uh Chinese Coast Guard ships came and sprayed high pressure water cannons trying to make it Veer off Course and there were several crew members on board who were injured now this AOL is one of at least two that both the Philippines and and China claim uh the other one is up here the Scarboro sh which actually China seized control of in 2012 there are other Islands within the South China Sea that are disputed we've got the parisel islands up here that is claimed by uh Taiwan China and Vietnam and then also the spratly islands right here all these countries that you see in Orange have claims among the spratley islands okay but let's go back again to the two uh the second Thomas sh and the Scaro shol these both lie within areas that are claimed both by the Philippines within its exclusive economic zone here and also within uh China's n-h line claim this is the red lines that you see here these were drawn on a map and released by China in 1947 they've changed a little bit since then but basically at that time China claimed about 90% of the South China Sea and they said kind of extreme extension just uh eyeballing it just looking at the map yeah it's like a third of China's Mainland land area it's extending the country by like a third okay China says this is backed up by history for centuries the part the parasol islands and the sproutly islands were considered part of mainland China but these other countries in Orange again here said well China we can say the same thing we can say that history backs up our claims to these islands and so they disputed these claims uh in fact the Philippines brought a case against China uh in the permanent Court of arbitration in the heg and basically disputing the n- line claim among other things in 2016 the Court ruled China's n-9 claims have no legal basis China of course has ignored these claims ever since blatantly ignoring them and for basically the past 20 years has been on a campaign of military buildup throughout the South trying to see and also a campaign of intimidation against other countries who are trying to maintain control of their claims such as this encounter that just happened with the Philippines so that that bring that's I think a time now to bring in Dustin Dustin I hope you can hear me um you have prepared I know Dustin some video of this encounter that we've been talking about and we can bring it up here what you're about to see here okay so we've kind of got you see these high- press water cannons that are being sprayed at this resupply ship wow yeah it's really tiny and then there's going to be uh I mean can you imagine just the high press water that's coming at this little tiny ship and then boom wow boom it breaks the glass oh my God so it's pretty you think that do you think that was intentional I mean that was quite some Force absolutely and they're really close to each other oh and it's being surrounded there's two boats I mean if we talk this has been described by President Marco by Bango Marcos as a David and Goliath battle here okay let me take back battle it's a it's a David and Goliath moment let's say that however we can see that the David in this case does not have nearly kind of the the kind of weapon I don't want to call it a weapon again sorry the kind of strength or power intimidation tactics that the other boats I mean I can also see looking at this video that they could easily end up ramming each other and causing a lot of dangerous a dangerous situation where a boat starts sinking people people start drowning I mean that has happened they have rammed uh these uh resupply boats they've also used other tactics like shining high-powered lasers uh and so it's really um these run-ins just keep on happening because if we see this um this is this is the resupply boat but it's headed towards the Sierra Madre which is this uh scuttled World War II era ship the Chinese vessals are just waiting for that to fall apart interesting yeah and so it's just intimidation tactics until that time thank you very much for that um yeah full on stuff isn't it you that's quite quite some video um just want to say hello to everyone who's joining us in the chat thank you very much there seem to be quite a few of you um from the Philippines so hello um and a couple of um comments um worm boy says I tell you this your federal government and I think by that they mean the US has a treaty with with us to defend the Philippines never forget the hundreds of thousands of Filipinos who fought and died because of your war with Japan during World War II and Vietnam uh you have a big responsibility because you've been using us as your Shield against many enemies in Asia and Mr s and chess says keep out and let Powers shift so um and there are many many more comments in the chat yeah but yeah I mean I think later we should ask about that treaty and find out a little bit more more um but uh now is a good time to um oh yes to bring in to bring in our guests yeah yeah we uh we have Richard hadarian T sort of beaming in from Osaka and and if you have any questions for Richard uh specifically about uh the perspective from the Philippines definitely post that in uh the chat and uh all of us are looking at what's online and and we're going to try to bring in as many questions as possible um for those catching up just tuning in the question we're asking today is China and the Philippines Asia's Next Hot War and um hopefully we get closer to uh a better understanding of tensions in the South China Sea after uh this conversation so I'm going to first uh Richard stand by we're going to replay that sound bite from the president of the Philippines and his comments in regards to China the potential for for outright conflict is much higher now than it was before and it uh we worry in the Philippines because it could come from not not a strategic decision by anyone saying okay we're going to war but just by making some some service when making a mistake so those were the comments of from the president of the Philippines last week to ABC News Australia and caused a a brewhaha a Richard hadarian is joining us now from Osaka thank you so much first of all we know it's pretty late there and um Richard is an I would describe it a national security rock star he is an author columnist U political scientist I know he was a Munich Security Council a young leader uh Richard how are you first of all thanks so much for joining us pleasure pleasure always good to join you guys I want to ask uh can you just react respond to what the president said um how was it received in the Philippines uh and was he addressing a domestic audience was he addressing China I mean why did he say what he said yeah I think uh as far as president Marcus Jr is concerned he was definitely trying to engage the international media and and my senses he tends to be much more engaging when he's dealing with actually western or intern ational media especially in the United States or Europe or in this case in Australia actually the the news back in the Philippines did not concern his comments on the South China C China but some of the uh questions regarding his family's background I mean after all we're talking about Ferdinand Marcus Jr right um they're quite a notorious Dynasty to put it mildly right but this is the thing if you look at the things that Marcus Jr is saying about the South China Sea um there's nothing new there I mean these are the things that we were warning about throughout the years these are the things that the late and former president benno Akino Jr was warning about in early 2010s he's the president behind our unprecedented decision and in many ways historic decision to take China to International court but the reason why Marcus Jr suddenly sounds like a breath of fresh air ironically for for that matter is because we had six years of Rodrigo duterte a president who was to put it mildly really from an alternative Universe when it comes to anything regarding the sou chin issue if you listen to the interviews that the former president gave on the south chin issues he was always trying to essentially lawyer or apologize for China so now I think president Mar J is saying the correct things something that ping is not excited about starting a war we know that President Xi Jinping uh is focused on the economic troubles at home but at the rate things are going if China continues to send an armada of militia forces on professional forces of you know uh you know trigger happy Maritime Force accidental clashes escalate into something much bigger uh Richard uh thanks so much for that you were breaking up a little bit there so I don't quite think I got the the back half of that but um but uh point taken about the the difference between the duterte administration and the Marcos Jr Administration can we just follow up on uh the comment from one of the people online uh regarding this treaty what does the treaty actually say what uh are the US obligations and um and what is the sense and confidence that the from the Philippines that the Americans will stick to whatever they have promised yeah I'm actually well current in the United States uh that treaty is pretty clear uh about America's obligations to come to Japan's rescue if ever it's invaded uh by a third party for that matter let's say China um but in the case of the Philippines and the United States there's a certain inbu ambiguity uh into the mutual defense treaty in fact for instance there has to be some sort of a Buy in or some sort of implied veto by other branches of the US government let's say the US Congress for instance so there is a degree of ambiguity and that degree of ambiguity actually was very much Central to America approach to the uh South chines issu during the Nixon Administration all the way to the Obama Administration but towards the end of the well first maybe first Trump Administration and now under the Biden Administration we see a political decision to diminish that 19 we have a multiple American Administration saying that if the Philippines uh troops vessels or aircrafts were to be attack H I think Richard's Frozen up uh I was hoping that it come through and after all he is in Osaka where uh when we think the internet is pretty fast and furious you compared to Berlin but but I think we got our answer in terms of uh just the mutual defense treaty that the United States has with the Philippines um you know it looks like the Americans if they really didn't want to uh engage uh with China on this matter in the South China Seas they have an out uh through Congress and through other mechanisms and because we're trying to reconnect with Richard I think this is a good time to try to bring in Colin uh Dustin can you confirm uh that Colin is also on standby and ready to join us okay let's bring in Colin I know he's been listening to part of the conversation Colin Co thank you so much for joining us um and again it is also very late in Singapore a quick reminder of um of Colin uh and who he is he is a special also another rock star in the Indo Pacific uh and a specialist in Naval Affairs and he joins us from uh the S rajer ratnam School of International uh studies thank you so much for um joining us we really really appreciate it thank you so much you're very kind I help as much as I can absolutely so we were just talking to Richard about sort of the the why Marcos Jr uh said what he said and then of course Richard explained a little a bit about the mutual defense treaty and uh the US obligation to that um I'm a little curious um do you like why has the Philippines become more wary of China uh under uh Marcos Jr and why has there been this shift in in policy uh since duterte I think there is very much uh sort of a you know often circulation assumption that everything all started under the current Administration that's not exactly true and I agree with what Richard has said earlier about the six years of du's administration that is considered rather abnormal give you context um during the time when du3 was President uh throughout the six years public uh surveys in the Philippines highlighted a few important uh I would say characteristics I think one is that duti himself um as a president was pretty popular amongst the people uh he was uh sort of you know praise and given a pretty high public approval ratings on various areas such as for example how he handled the covid-19 um how he handled the economy in general how he handled internal security but there's one area that he consistently didn't do very well has been his approach to China uh and by the extension uh it is also with regard to how the public in the Philippines perceived China and the South China SE issue so I think that has been pretty consistent but as what Richard had rightly pointed out you know D had uh somewhat preferred to lawyer for China throughout his six years and he had reached some from agreements with China uh those are not written agreements but it appeared to have been verbal agreements that were not uh in tionalized and but they were nonetheless taken as a concrete form agreement by China um and of course you know that seems to have changed uh and I thought the change started around early 2020 uh during the time when um you know that was uh the uh covid-19 um that was a time when China was going around and somehow getting to some pretty serious incidents with the various South China Sea parties in Southeast Asia like the case of Indonesia the case of Malaysia with West capella and then you would think that China would somehow leave the Philippines alone given that the3 was somewhat you know taken as the poster boy of Sino Philippine relationship uh after the aino administration back there but uh I think it was all proven wrong because in 2021 um with sun Reef incident BW up and I think that was what I believe to be um the turning point of du's policy towards China we saw for example duti resined the earlier decision to scrap the visiting forces agreement with the US and thereafter um in the final months um what we saw was a more a much harder stun towards China in terms of how the Philippines deploy Maritime forces and so essentially maros junor Administration be on that very interesting and I think yeah there there's lots of comments um particularly about what's um you know the um what's going on in the Philippines and Richard has rejoined us so questions for either of them for either so this is from pomy um who just states it is obvious that the Philippines is trying to hedge between the two giants in other words between the US and between China is that correct yeah Richard if you um since you you got knocked off why don't you get answer that one do you think it's a hedge probably I'm being sabotaged probably some people didn't like my answers a while ago it always happens to me but I was surprised it happens to me in Japan I thought this is a safe space um well I mean calling is calling is Bri I mean actually even towards the end of the duter administration 2021 he openly called out China and essentially said hey you don't do this to your friends this is if I'm not mistaken during the aan China Summit uh in 2021 now uh going back to your questions what was the question again sorry so it's from some it's from um a user called pomy he says I um basically is saying that um the Philippines is hedging its bets between two great Giants the US and China yeah yeah well hedging I I always say it's like 50 Shades of hedging right across the Southeast Asian region all of us are hedging in one way or another and in the Philippines different administrations have been hedging differently even duterte was hedging at some point but he was tilting far more towards China than the United States if you look at uh president Marcos Jr he has also been hedging uh initially actually he also wanted the new era of golden relationship with China he said that when he met wangi uh in 2022 just a few months after he won he called Xi Jinping and said we're going to shift our relationship to a higher ground and this is where you can see China is not a very sophisticated Rising power everyone talks about especially there in Europe I always hear Chinese statecraft sophistication I don't see that they had a golden opportunity with duterte to seal the deal to come up with at least some white elephant Pro projects but all they offered us was pledge trap forget about Deb trap because in Deb trap there's investment in the Philippines there was just empty pledges nothing came in and then they tried to do that to Marcos Jr except marcoses unlike dues are OG right they have been in this geopolitical business for decades I mean you can find pictures of Marcus Jr with ma zedon in the 70s so you're not going to pull off what you pulled off with duterte with Marcus Jr so when Marcus Jr last January went to China he only had two days unlike his father who had like 10 days I think when he was there in the 70s he brought in hundreds of Filipino businessmen including Chinese Filipino businessman and he got really nothing uh China did not offer any compromise on the south Chinese issue any compromise on the uh unfulfilled Investments and only a few weeks after that you see a dramatic change in Marcus Jr tone especially in the world economic forum and then the following month he greenlighted not only expansion of the Philippines military cooperation with the United States but also with Japan so they're now conversation with a trilateral security cooperation among Japanese and Filipinos and Americans also focusing on Taiwan not only on the South China Sea so this hedging is not like you know there's a software download and then you know this is President's hedging no no the presidents are um responding to China's own actions and calculus so Colin is absolutely right China has been trying to to have the cake and eat it too and they have been really abusing their so the Strategic opportunism of China coupled with their inability to make the most out of their strategic opening the Philippines is why we are where we are today so what really annoys me with China's rhetoric nowadays is twofold one is dismissing the Philippines as a pawn of the United States when we're not defending America's territory we're defending the Philippine Sovereign rights and number two completely denying the Philippines strategic agency when in fact the Philippines is doing this for its own National interest right not for anyone's National interest and we're defending our own Sovereign rights so I call this strategic gaslighting China is gaslighting the Philippines for doing what is right and they're now gaslighting Marcus Jr when Marcus Jr is doing nothing genius he's just continuing what Akino was doing seven eight years ago except because duterte came before him he suddenly looks like the hero of the day right um that is fascinating there more questions I I just wanted to say that your nine shades of hedging was was well liked in the chat scotch and salmon roll that's a great name scotch and salmon roll um certainly liked it and others um yeah I mean there there are lots of questions generally about um China and Views about um you know what China is going to do with the Philippines but I don't know if now is the time to mention that or whether I'm going hold on that we're going to talk about sort of the 50,000 fet sort of China why China thinks the way it does but before we do that I think it'll be fun fun our idea of fun to talk about the boats on the sea like I I know that sounds so simple but we we often in news talk about a skirmish on the South China Sea what is actually happening on these Waters how many ships are there are there just Chinese Coast Guard ships like we saw in the video um what uh how what is the strength of the Philippine Navy we of course know that the Americans talk about freedom of the navigation of the Seas there so so are they out there like many count trees I imagine must be represented uh on these Waters just I'm trying to wrap my head around it um I just want to say this is a really busy global trade route I've read articles like 20 to 30% of global trade correct me if I'm wrong Richard or Colin but I mean there's a lot of boats out there so and this military activity going on so yeah I'd love to know like what's it like yeah and while we're talking about this guys um both of you so you're aware I mean Michelle's has a lot of maps teed up and graphs so as you're talking if you want to describe something geographically we can zoom in and do all kinds of things like that um so Colin can you just start like just broad Strokes like what is actually bobbing out there on the waters oh sorry uh is that a specific area that you want to look at uh okay so South China Seas um are we seeing American ships are we seeing more Chinese ships is it just a a pope perie of different um countries na navies out there I mean I guess for someone who doesn't who you know doesn't study the military it's hard to wrap my mind around what's actually happening in the context of these skirmishes right like these ocean waters are vast the the South China Sea appear on the map to be pretty small but it is a still a large semi-enclosed sea body and we are looking at a very complex what we call pattern of Life uh of um you know Maritime activity so if you talk about uh not just government vessels we are looking at a whole uh you know array of Civilian vessels ranging from the big tankers container ships um and Coastal Freighters and I think more commonly also uh we're looking at offshore support vessels that were you know supporting the offshore uh energy activities and of course I think most prevalently will be the fishing vessels of various sizes but but there is no not really you know a sort of a of the count figure on what each country tends to have but let's just focus on a few countries right for China I think in terms of the offshore presence uh that actually has been pretty more dominant uh Visa the Philippines and even Visa the US why I say that um for China over the uh one decade or so it has managed to build two things one uh would be the Fleet of Coast Guard as well as navy vessels um and of course secondly would be those artificial islands that started to appear after 2014 these China yeah Michelle's gonna pull up the artificial Islands or the the first I think it'd be good to look at the Chinese naval fleet we've got an infographic as of 2015 that shows what kind of ships that are part of the Chinese Fleet um and you were just mentioning the Coast Guard there Colin down here we've got um the Chinese Coast Guard ships I'm going to zoom in here everybody bear with me col I I didn't want to interrupt your thought but please continue your thought while Michelle pulls these visuals up for us and I know Jared's probably going to drop the link in it's in there now yeah for those of you who want to follow along sorry Colin so you were saying yes about these this is the largest buildup uh of the Chinese Navy and I understand that the Chinese Navy is larger than the United States one I don't know by what metric is that true it's true um in terms of the number of ships built per year China's uh ship building capacity dwars what the US has been able to do uh within one year on the average um this is a ve very phenomenal build up by China not just for the Navy itself but also for the Coast Guard we are looking at a phenomenal growth of you know the Coast Guard and navy and of course we are even looking at the maritime militia um you know sort of boasting uh pretty uh capable vessels as well so col I'm so sorry can I jump in there because we've got an infographic that is directly related to what you're talking about right now uh kind of comparing the US versus uh China Chinese Navy fleets um so I'm just going to um bring that graphic in here so says overtime um this is the Chinese naval fleet back here in 2000 and then it shows we're right here right around 2024 it definitely is bigger than the US Navy Fleet and is projected to be way bigger um do you mind talking about why this is happening this this difference in trajectory between the two navies okay so I will summarize more concisely on that now we are looking at of course you know on the one hand a PR Navy that is you know rather busy trying to modernize a whole huge Fleet of Cold War era vessels and thereby what we're seeing here is what we call a block replacement of a huge number of ships within a short span of time U those Legacy vessels that belong to the Cold War are progressively being decommissioned and replaced with relatively newer and younger vessels whereas on the other hand for the us while it has a much higher Baseline of more capable vessels but they dated uh back earlier say in the 80s and say in the early 90s and gradually as they age uh they become less available and then they s of get the commission now the one thing that we are seeing here is that the US Navy is not building as quickly as it would to replace the ships that you will want to decommission so for example just this week the um Financial year or fiscal year 2025 budget request for the US Navy means that you know more than 10 vessels will be decommission but only six ships uh will be ordered uh for that fiscal year so as you can see the replacement isn't catching up with the decommissioning so in other words we are seeing here the shrinking of the US Navy and on the other hand we're looking at the expansion of the Chinese Navy now um the Chinese Navy Fleet as represented by the graphic you you need to give some context to it one is that the Chinese Navy still actually has a huge Fleet of smaller vessels smaller vessels like corvet and Patrol craft and fast attack craft usually they are more useful in the lorals or the coastal Waters whereas for the US Navy the part of its Fleet are actually blue water capable vessels but the only problem here is that for the Chinese Navy um they have the luxury of focusing on Regional hotpots that were close to shore but the US Navy is a global Navy that has wide- ranging responsibility so they can't focus like the Chinese Navy on one single region so the trend that you are presenting here uh is something that we are going to see as a structural uh problem going forward that that is fascinating and while we continue this conversation Michelle why don't you just pull up the man-made Islands visuals and we can talk over that and about other stuff because I know you were getting to it and well just from the chat just picking up on the Navy um bad mats 89 China's Navy is larger but it's made in China that's a point um there that that Colin was making um and also um you know quite a few uh comments just about um the strength of the uh Chinese Navy coming in um and uh Ed Roes the days of grand Naval battles are over um he says um obviously um I well maybe that's controversial actually but I guess he's talking about the fact that um the Chinese it's so much bigger at the moment than um than the American Navy anyway particularly in that part of the world but quite a few comments a lot of interest can I say in the Navy and the ships and um the actual you know what they are so if we know anything more about that um that would be great to get any more info Richard um let's bring in Richard um because you've been you've been listening to all this um can you tell us just a little bit about what's the thinking behind uh the Chinese building these man-made Islands um you know there are these amazing before and after photos uh is this again trying to plant their flag uh on the soil and sort of claim it uh if you look at these they're uh just building out these military assets is it strategic or is it just symbolic what's going on here well I I think it's all of the above that there's there there's definitely the symbolic value to this uh I mean and there's the legal aspect to it or at least that's that's the hope of China because you know as far as international law is concerned effective and continuous exercise of jurisdiction is one way of proving that they have sovereignty over certain territory except of course China is never going to be open to taking these cases to International court but that's that also gives them a kind of a psychological and symbolic Edge changing the facts on ground essentially right like changing the facts on we see this all around the world right in disputed territor it's the party that has the upper hand in terms of changing fast on the ground over time creates a py some sort of psychological reality a political reality for that matter now militarily I remember very well back in 2013 when China went on this kind of a geoengineering on steroids there were many dismissive commentaries came coming out of the United States um many people in the US Navy and Pentagon were saying ah we can just bumb that thing in a few hours they'll be gun but I think more and more studies throughout the years I'm sure Colin has his own take on this have shown that it could actually give China some significant amount of military PRS especially when dealing with the smaller powers in the region but perhaps also Vis A America and more importantly remember China has not reached the Final Phase of its strategy in the South China Sea so I think it's now perhaps only in phase three so first phase was Reclamation second phase was militarizing those fake Islands third is what I call militi meaning using militia forces fake uh you know fishermen to create intimidation tactics but short of the threshold of triggering war or the Philippines Mutual defense treaty but we know that the Final Phase would really be China declaring an air defense identification Zone meaning completely dominating the skies in the area as a way to dominate the seas in the area and that means it will have to have a network of air bases uh and all sorts of Defense capabilities in the area so it has an end goal but and and that reminds I mean you talk about the air defense identification Zone that's what it's doing uh to Taiwan right that's where we're seeing that the the jets flying in the Adis uh do you guys call it ad or ad I don't know but um and so you're saying that they're kind of taking that strategy they have with Taiwan and sort of expanding it to the South China Seas or the West Philippines Sea depending right yeah Melissa fantastic Point actually the Taiwan angle is very important I think many strategist would say that one way of China also dominating Taiwan and winning over Taiwan is to secure the rear of Taiwan in the rear of Taiwan will be the South China Sea and to a certain degree the Philippines something that we can discuss later on so you really cannot separate this thing I mean we we tend to separate East China Sea Taiwan Straits South China Sea but China today treats all of these bodies of waters as an integrated theater of operation so all of the things that they're doing on the ground is part of that strategy now as far as the Philippines is concerned the latest tensions I would say there are essentially three areas one is in the scar barall perhaps you can pull it up in the map it's just over 100 nautical miles off the Philippines uh Lon um uh Island the northern Island when the capital Manila is we see a lot of tension STS in fact the 20 in 2012 we saw a monthlong naval standoff between the Philippines and China there and that was really the wake up call for the Philippines because for almost a century the Philippines essentially outsourced its external security needs to the United States of America it was a very peculiar and I would say as a Philippine quite an embarrassing situation for quite some time but we were shaken out of that store and since 2012 we have been engaging in a modernization of our Armed Forces now China is just so big that they make all of us look small but I think the Philippines has a good chance of becoming a credible middle power modern power later this decade but the two other areas are of course in the spratly group of violence particularly around around Theo Island and the other one where we see a lot of really violent potentially explosive tensions is the second thas show which you mentioned a while ago we have we have a ground rounded ship there since 1998 we have a de facto Marine Detachment there are preventing we have we have pictures of it and and while we're pulling those pictures up I I this is exactly the kind of this is the question I want to ask we've been looking at the Chinese the strength of the Chinese Navy we've talked a little bit about the the assumed strength of the Americans what is the strength of the Philippine Navy I mean you're talking about um the Philippines needing to ex exert you know and and it's its sovereignty over the waters that it believes uh it it it controls um and then yet we have these images of the Sierra Madre it doesn't look great um let's pull it up um it's is it Michelle or Dustin that has this uh these photos I've got this on my laptop I'm gonna try and make it bigger here uh yeah uh so this is what we've got um this is you can see it's just really a a rust bucket a rusted Hulk I mean I've read of people who have reported from there it's yeah it's a tetanus friendly site I would say it's a tetanus friendly site it's it's a horrible site as far as uh the Philippines position is but this reflects the horrible strategic decisions made by former Filipino presidents right none of them you know actually the last Filip president who was forward looking and did something on the ground remember 1977 78 the Philippines already had a modern air strip in that area that was under Ferdinand Mar Senor I'm no fan of dictators but if there's one thing that that guy got right wasn't foreign policy that's why Kissinger and Nixon were worried that they could get dragged into a war hence your question in the mutual defense treaty the reason why America was ambiguous was because the Philippines was the mini bully back then we had the best armed forces or among the best in Southeast Asia but for 30 years the Philippines was in economic doll drum strategic neglect but we're coming back so Philippines obviously is not 10 out of 10 and China makes all of us look pathetic in certain ways but we're going from let's say one or two towards five six or seven out of 10 in the coming years or so so I think the Philippines have come very far especially if you look at the Philippine Coast Guard I'm sure Colin has to say something about this but I think Philippine Coast Guard right now is among the best in the Southeast Asian region and some of the new um vessels they have they're pretty fancy I've been in many many modern vessels all around the world Colin knows that but the ones I'm seeing in the Philippines right now are very encouraging thanks to not because they're my host right now but also thanks to Japan uh former president Shin among others made sure countries like the Philippines on the front line will get that capacity building help so the Philippines is nowhere close uh to to to China but it's getting closer to becoming at least a David versus the Goliath of China if the current trends continue and let me just pick up on that because jetpack um Russia has said a modernization in the Navy which is paid for and supplied by dot dot dot the US is that correct no not at all actually I completely agree AG with one of the comments earlier like we have been with the Americans shoulder Tosh shoulder how many world wars by the way first world war second world war Cold War Vietnam War Korean War so I mean ju just look at the amount of Aid America is giving to countries Ukraine of course I understand it's a war situation or look at some countries in the Middle East of countries that are even not even us treaty allies like like Jordan or Egypt you know Israel is a totally different level or Pakistan these are countries have been getting billions of dollars in Aid they're getting Advanced weapon systems f-16s Abram stanks the Philippines until quite recently were getting Vietnam era kind of weapon systems from the Americans so as I said it was really under Trump and Biden that things have begun to change but the Philippines is not just going to rely on the Americans anymore we're reaching out to the Americans as as we speak president Marcus J's there in Germany talking to Chancellor schz or was talking to Chancellor schz we're looking at France for potential acquisition of Submarine so we're finally looking at the whole network of Partners and allies because we know we cannot just on the Americans and are any more questions maybe you can throw one to call just let me pick up on one thing um that uh has come up in the chat by somebody called um uh Randy Rowdy um who seems to um be making a suggestion that the uh chat um is being done by Ai and I can tell you 100% is not I am looking at it and Jared across from me is looking at it and together we are trying to read all your comments so please understand we are not using AI I'm sure it would be a lot easier if we were but we're not hence wearing glasses exactly that was important um just to point that out um so yes we do make make mistakes and read things incorrectly but we are um trying to do it the best we can um yes so I just wanted to say that point and um do we have any questions for a Colin maybe um for Colin we've got quite a few um coming up about China and the us but I think we probably don't want to get onto that yet but I have a question that I would like to ask which is about um you're talking about Coast Guards um these fishermen that we seem to be seeing on on both sides particularly on the Chinese side are they fishermen that we're seeing or are they militia people in Disguise because um I seem to be reading two different accounts on that yeah they seem to be very adventurous fishermen yes Colin can you can you help us on that okay yeah um the Chinese Maritime militia is essentially um you know what we call uh um a reservist force for the most part uh they have in hyan a force that is designed as a core force uh that is equipped with specialized vessels um there are some of these specialized vessels uh that were actually you know very active in the South China Sea now give you the context the average age of a maritime militia Personnel is uh aging so younger Maritime militia men are not as motivated as a more senior um counterparts of their predecessors and usually know what happened was that during the time when there was a fishing ban by right the maritime militia uh Personnel will undergo some refresher training but in the recent years the trend had been that um these Maritime militia men they will prefer to find jobs on land uh during those time when there was no fishing and some uh many of them may not necessarily undergo the training so recognizing that uh the Chinese thereby also created a specialized force uh within High especially but for the most part uh it's not right to say that you know all of them are Maritime militia vessels it's also not right to say that none of them are Maritime militia vessel the issue here is that they don't wear uniforms they do wear uniforms during their training and during parades but on any normal day they're out there fishing uh even in daytime while they are operating as fishermen they have the obligation to take part in activities when called upon by the Navy or by or by the Coast Guard um and of course they have to report any uh sort of a anomalous activities that they encounter that will require their authorities attention so what I'm trying to say is that you know those fishermen whether you are looking at them you know being put there for Specialized or specific marip Duty or just fishing duties that they essentially play a part in asserting China's sovereignty yeah so fishermen soldiers but are they pay are they paid extra for doing those um those special I mean I suppose you can't call them missions but you know well maybe you can't call the missions but are they paid extra by the by the Chinese to do that okay so I will quickly draw on that um for sure depending on the missions that they are assigned to they may get additional allowances on top of that the more common uh practice is that they get pretty heavy uh State subsidies for things like fuel uh ship maintenance and repairs that cover a lot of the cost in fact and in fact you know suffice to say put it bluntly is that um even if there's no fish out there the government sees it fit to actually pay them and fo the bills to send them out there because they are essentially floating pieces of sovereignty so therefore you know uh we don't underestimate the fact that even if there are no fish out in the South China Sea um they still play an important role and it's a politic go one that's fascinating and um before we go any further though Jared yes what's been cooking online well just in terms of the fisherman uh Harry namkung says some are Fisherman some are militia um interesting comment uh we are being accused of fearmongering and slander towards uh China so so I think there's a lot of different heated opinions on exactly what we're talking about but um that was one opinion someone else's written Here China is acting like a bully um of course when we're talking about China in this context it's it's easy to um sort of make a link to Russia which is what this person's done much similar to Russia but less aggressive but they are completely dependent on Western consumers which buy their goods we can stop buying according to FJ uh one comment that I I kind of wanted to point out some people are talking every so often about the hag and that is because uh an international tribunal ruled in 2016 uh dismissing beijing's claim Michelle had mentioned that earlier the South China Sea exactly what you were talking about of course that seems to have had little impact on what China's been doing but some people pointing out that the Philippines maybe themselves failed to capitalize on that ruling they could have been more assertive at the time they weren't and maybe they've missed that opportunity some people making that I mean China's been making hay a sense in terms of the buildup that we've seen we've got some pictures of the before and after if we want to get to that at some point but go ahead just quickly just picking up on um on the fisherman again um Amber Drake reporting to duty when called is 100% a militia Reserve Force so um this whole thing about that you know it's it's just a bit of an allowance obviously Amber Drake does not believe that well I mean I'm I'm the fearon green let's let's get into that I mean for those of you still uh just joining we've been talking about uh the question China and the Philippines Asia's hot uh next Hot War and and uh someone accusing uh the conversation of being too much fear-mongering uh when it comes to China I want to present that question uh to both of our guests Richard and uh Colin uh you know we've spent time looking at the what's actually happening on the waters um let's pull back now why is this fearmongering why is China interested in this region is it ideological is it nationalistic uh what's going on here uh maybe we should start with um Richard since Colin was uh speaking earlier well I mean I'm sure Colin also has a lot of quote unquote follower troller who are happy to always bash whatever we say here but this is precisely what I've been saying this gaslighting that they are doing two countries I mean all we're doing is just calling out some of the excesses there you know you know the Philippines wants to have a good relationship with China we have an interest in having a good relationship with China we don't want to have war with China but China cannot expect us not to say anything when they're essentially slapping us around intimidating us several Filipino Naval Personnel including a vice admiral commander in the Philippine West command near the South chin disputed areas were injured during one of these operations so to say the Philippines is the fearmonger is quite Rich from some of the people who are clearly sympathetic to the other side I mean China always does it it escalates the situations it tries to impose its will it bullies its way around and if someone says something they'll say oh you're provoking oh you're trying to to make things you're making drama right you're a drama queen right they always do that it's classic strategic uh gas lighting having said that though it is important that we don't forget the value of diplomacy so I think I appreciate president Marcos Jr's tone because as much as president Marcos Jr points out the dangers and threats on the ground if you look at his tone he always tries to extend an olive branch to China he he went to China last year he met president shinp on the sidelines of ape last November he is open to have negotiations with them but the red lines of the Philippines as a Sovereign Nation should be respected if China wants to be seen as a peaceful Rising power it has to respect so the basic Sovereign rights of neighboring countries so that is why I mean if this is fear mongering then what do we call people just water cannoning other country's Navy and injuring people right and left and that's what that's what war mongering well um DeVos says in the chat this isn't fearmongering um this is talking about something that could lead to a World War situation yeah I mean uh Colin can you i' would love to hear your thoughts I mean is is this how would you respond to the person who is saying that this is fear-mongering and what is the ideological Drive of China if you can get into the psychology of Beijing a little bit for us okay so I will I will first tackle the second question I think that is probably something that uh interest uh many of our audience here there is no one single reason why China wants the spread lease or you know more broadly those contestant China Sea archipelagos uh there are various reasons for that and all of them I believe are equally important one has to do with um emotion right that um the South China Sea was variously referred to in China as a historical blue territory the use of the word blue territory is a very strong one because if you go by international law you don't claim Waters as territory beyond your 12 naal miles territorial sea uh as simple as that so that that is one of course there is a clear economic uh stick in the South China Sea we talk about the fishery we talk about the hydrocarbon resources and for China these days they're talking about you know some for of meane deposit that is considered what they call a Next Generation energy source um we're talking about the Strategic value and you bring in Taiwan and I I fully agree with what Richa has said earlier that both the South China Sea and Taiwan are seen as a contiguous hope um the South China chy essentially is the southern flank of any future potential conflict over Taiwan so therefore it's important and the fourth one is that if you look at the you know open source uh intelligence uh material it's very clear that the South China Sea has become a Key Arena for China Sea based nuclear deterrent U most of its nuclear submarines in fact one would say all of his nuclear ballistic missile submarines are all based in hyan um and the South China is believed to be what they call a safe Sanctuary for those um you know ballistic Miss submarine from which they could launch our M uh and be saved from any uh potential action from the enemy so this there are a whole slw of these reasons to underpin why the South chin is so important to China but one thing to note is that the current uh ruling Communist party has to go on with the current narrative because doing otherwise is going to be detrimental to its political legitimacy one will argue that you know over the time National Education in China has been very successful but the CCP also finds itself a victim of his own success because basically you are talking about a young generation of Chinese citizens who are born and raised in the era where they saw no hardship uh essentially they are born in the era where China is strong and they and they expect China to be strong they expect the ruling party to fight back against any perceived grievances uh say on the South China Sea without hesitation um so therefore in a way it is public diplomacy also for CCP now to address the second question and of course going back to the first question and I really wanted to weigh in on what uh Richa has said about whether we are fear mongering look um just to share with you I've been looking at the South China SE as part of my research on southeast Asia uh neighbor Affairs and Mar Security for the past 10 years at least and I saw the trends I documented the incidents and I think it's very clear that we are seeing here a very dangerous situation now you remember you know back in 2020 when all the Southeast Asian countries are busy trying to cope with a new maners and that is covid-19 right China wasn't letting up China was essentially making use of the destruction of covid-19 to basically po the eye of the various of East Asian parties in the South China Sea um you know Indonesia Malaysia and then you know the following year in 2021 we saw the Philippines become the next victim um essentially China doesn't really care now my my advice to those who want to argue that we are Fe mongering is first go and do your research right don't just read certain newspaper don't just read certain social media do your research you know and trust the scholars who are doing impartial research and we present you know hard data just to show you for example people who say that oh this thing about Maritime militia doesn't exist let me share with you if you have access to the Chinese database uh which is an academic database for example National knowledge uh infrastructure or cnki or even one fun you'll have all the ton of you know Chinese literature on the maritime militia and let me share with you there is one Chinese Journal called the Journal of the militia okay and all those papers of Maritime militia are all written by their office okay and political commissar high ranking officers and even senior Scholars tell me whether they exist or not okay they exist and it's very clear what they are writing about you know with regard to what they want to do what they need to do and of course there is a whole SL of journals on the China Coast Guard highlighting you're you're recommending no you're recommending articles of that from China but this is a perfect opportunity for you and Richard to Showcase and share to viewers articles and Journal pieces that both of you guys have put out so I just want to throw that out there you're far too humble Colin tell tell us what you've written and in what media so that people who are online right now can Google search it and and and read some of the things that you've been writing recently oh maybe you want to ask we to go first no finish your thought I you're in such a role why why don't you tell us like two articles or Journal articles from from you that we should all be yeah and then Richard you get ready with with your your uh plug as well okay uh I I roughly remember the year that I wrote some of those articles were around 2017 2018 and they were published with the national interest um you will can Google my name and the national interest and you'll find articles that wrote on the maritime militia and the China coast guard for example um there is this piece that I wrote on the um Chinese Maritime militia that was published with the AG Foundation just a few years back as well so uh you can look at them I recommend but obviously you know if you read Chinese and you have access to databases that's where you find a whole gam of knowledge regarding you know what the Chinese Maritime militia is doing and what they're thinking about in the future uh what the China Coast Guard is doing what what challenges they face and what are the things they want to do all written by Chinese Scholars and practitioners okay and you would say that if anyone says are Fe mongering hey look you know are you trying to say that you know the Chinese themselves are Fe mongering themselves okay yeah so I just want to end that yes they actually there this is what they're saying that they're going to do and their intentions so Richard over to you uh what should we be looking up uh articles podcast uh you do so many different things well I mean I don't know probably a thousand articles read on but these are popular articles and a dozen probably academic articles but I just I have two books which focus on the South China Sea either directly or or at least a chapter or two where focus on that one is the Asia's new Battlefield I wrote it back in 2015 and the Indo Pacific uh more a recent book but I have another book um on China's relations with sou Asian countries with South China C obviously also prominent there hopefully coming out later this year with Melbourne University press but if you don't want to read my stuff just follow me online and you'll get the more I I don't know juicy sexy version of my academic works so I because I wear many hats so it depends which version of M do you want to see the various shades of I am not gonna be invited anymore for me it's 12: p.m. it's almost midnight here in Japan so I'm not at my Shark sorry no no I mean but but guys uh Richard and Colin stay with us uh but I want to at this time since we threw up that poll at the very beginning of this discussion we had thrown up a poll you might have missed it if you were uh but it's actually online all the time Jared I think you have been following that can you just tell us what the results have been and what you're what's going on over there exactly so the poll was asking what do you think is more likely a Chinese conflict with the Philippines or a Chinese conflict with Taiwan uh at the moment we have a bit over a thousand votes um 32% of people I'll start with the least actually so 28% of people say there'll be no conflict 32% of people believe believe that there'll be conflict with the Philippines and coming out on on top is a conflict with Taiwan on 40% but there's a butt to this isn't there because although there's one over a thousand votes so far there was another poll wasn't there before right I mean the we had we had some technical uh issues so we had a poll that had started before the stream but quite aot of people V yeah so we we probably had roughly double uh these amount of votes that uh half of them got deleted by accident these things happened but uh I think it was roughly similar figures so okay okay the internet has spoken and let me just pick up on a couple of um of of more comments that we've had just talking about the situation with China and what's it trying to do um we have got here um pomy China can't just let go of claims because they need that legitimacy of a strong China um that's what Colin just said and that's what Colin was saying exactly um we've got bad mat 89 no one wins in war um we've got Carlos sto Domingo China needs to focus on its own issues instead of bullying Asian neighbors um and so it goes on quite a lot more on those so a lot of people weighing in on a question China and the Philippines Asia's Next Hot War uh maybe this is a good time to go around and just uh if everyone has takeaways or or or thoughts and then we also want uh Richard and Collins's sort of takeaways over the last hour as well um but uh Alex um well I think that that what I was had never seen before was um the rust bucket of that um Filipino naval ship that was originally American called the SE MRA maybe we can show it one last time I just find it extraordinary that um that the Philippines are sort of using that to try to basically to bag to bags a sand Bank to bags a piece of land or land something in the sea and I just find that whole concept mindblowing that plus these fisherman stroke militia it's just incredible what's actually going on if you don't know and you're not interested Michelle's pulled it up there it is I just find that amazing that that is still floating let's keep that up while uh we go to Michelle sure I have to go back to the comments and something that Colin said for my takeaway uh he said there do your research and uh that goes back to a comment um that North 545 said um basically referencing that he find he found it amusing women talking about war well as we all know the war has really affected the lives of all genders uh here in Europe um when we're talking about um the invasion of Ukraine and so you know we're talking about potential scenarios here but everybody really needs to be aware and do their research of what's happening so we can be aware of these events that are shaping are very interesting times yeah yeah I think that that rust bucket ship was my takeaway as well I'm going to copy you Alex and and also just touch on Michelle we had we just had the comment uh no one wins in war and that really is absolutely the case that's probably my takeaway and and for me um Richard I have to say I really love that term strategic gaslighting so you know I think I'll try to use it at some point um my myself um but o over to you guys sort of like uh a takeaways you guys have had from either uh people's comments that we've shared uh and and this conversation I know that you spend a lot of time thinking about this but uh you know uh one big top line or something Colin uh do you have any thoughts yeah okay just uh one very quick talk uh especially with respect to the whole issue of Fe Mong and whatnot I think yeah I agree that you know no one wins it as a war however everyone wins if everyone obeys international law I think what's more important here is things will get better if China obeys international law I think simple as that thank you thank you Richard well thank you for for mentioning that I mean you're free to uh check my copyright on that term but thank you trar that term right first of all let me first of all yeah yeah let me first strongman my government I mean after all I've been criticizing the Philippines for quite some time and uh in in this show alone uh but actually that may be rusty and ugly on the outside but they may have better internet inside than my internet over the past hour or so so there have been efforts by the Philipp government to fortify uh that that feature so we may be seeing a better version of that uh inside and out uh in the coming uh years or so so do not judge a marine Detachment by its Rusty tetanus friendly uh uh exterior but but let me just end on this Point um what's interesting is we didn't mention this a while ago but China's n- line 10 Das line whatever you call it comes from Taiwan or to be more specific about it chanai Sheek and the Coman oh you're throwing in a curve Republic of China let's let's be also clear about this I mean I love them back in time I'm just saying um so so there so China is not even original about that but what's interesting is that they never clarified the exact coordinates of that n-h line or 10 dash line as bad as that is that also means China wants to negotiate that down the point because if they were to clarify the exact coordinates they would have locked in in themselves especially with all the popular nationalism and patriotic education that Colin correctly pointed out last point this issue with the Philippines even if it doesn't lead to war it says a lot about China as a rising superpower China is presenting itself as a peacemaker in the Middle East a peacemaker I don't know in Ukraine all around the world but if it's not a peacemaker or a source of peace in his own backyard in his own supposed backyard and in East Asia and South China Sea then perhaps that should be a wake up call for the rest of the world including you guys in Europe very than true um just just quickly um Charles M in the chat talking again about that that rust bucket of a ship um this s mro um it's no longer a ship it's part of a coral um he says and also just picking up and what Colin had had said about the about that law the 2016 law um bis bis Kings says no matter how strong China's military a law is a law Philippines is is legal China is squatting in this territory so that is what that comment has just come through yeah well Richard hadarian call and Co thank you so much for joining us uh it's late over there so uh should bid you Adar and have a sweet dreams no nightmares of South China Sea conflicts we really grateful for this thank you pleasure guys always and great to join Colin again hopefully he can have both of us in the future I'll behave myself better if it's better hour thank you thanks so much guys good to share the same panel as you yeah see you Richard and see you guys see you guys well it's been a great chat I've learned so much um and frankly as someone who used to be based in China and Asia for over a decade I thought I knew a lot but uh I learned so much today um right thanks to everyone who took part um thank you to those of us uh to to not those of us well all of us around the table also I want to thank Michelle Alex Jared thank you Dustin in the control room thanks to everyone online absolutely love it yeah absolutely massively thank you it's been a really really active chat really grateful for that um next week you can check out in our community tab what we will be discussing on our YouTube platform about 24 hours before so that'll be next Tuesday to find out what we're talking about on Wednesday and then please engage again it is so great to have this kind of chat going on we're really grateful we'll see you next week thank [Music] you [Music] [Music] [Music] a [Music] [Music] [Music] a [Music] [Music] a [Music] [Music]

Channel: DW News

Views: 625,666

Keywords: DW News, philippines, philippines china, philippines south china sea, indo pacific, south china sea, taiwan, china disputes, china territory, asean, aukus, freedom of navigation, quad, pacific, pacific navy, south china sea militarisation

Id: RhtJl4rBk_s

Length: 74min 53sec (4493 seconds)

Published: Wed Mar 13 2024