Imagining the Future: The Transformation of Humanity | Peter Diamandis | TEDxLA

good morning everybody we are living during the most extraordinary time ever in human history and during our lifetime during our lifetime that we're about to see the transformation of the human race truly something that blows my mind every time I think about it and the conversation I keep having with my colleagues my friends my investors my community in Silicon Valley goes something like this people have no idea how fast the world is changing and I want to give you a sense of that because it fills me with awe and with extraordinary sense of responsibility for how we guide it what we do with him this is the computational power of our planet and over the last 40 plus years from the 1980s to 2000 we were in a period of what I call deceptive growth where the growth was slow it was beginning to change us but we didn't try to feel it yet and then we enter a period of disruptive growth where it's exploding on to the world and you saw part of the implications from what Jeff Dean was saying and the implications of that explosive disruptive growth is that we're plummeting the cost to bandwidth millions of times cheaper computational costs are dropping through the floor the cost of memory is dropping through the floor and global connectivity is exploding on this planet now there are two applications I want to talk about during my presentation that are critically important the first is that of abundance and I had a chance to write a book called abundance the future is better than you think and here are the facts the per capita income for every nation on this planet has increased 300% our lifespan over the last hundred years has increased two and a half times the cause - food has dropped 13 fold Energy's dropped 30 fold and then on top of that what we're seeing is the following literacy on this planet over the last hundred years going 12% to 88 percent across the globe the cost of transportation going a hundred times cheaper the cost of communications going a thousand times cheaper and the cost of knowledge and information giving Google billions of times cheaper for every single person for a child in Mumbai having access to knowledge information as good as the president knighted States had 20 or 30 years ago a child the poorest child Mumbai in a smartphone having access to the same knowledge information that Larry Page has on Google so besides creating this abundance and D monetizing the cost of living what we're also seeing is we're about to see the transformation of the human race when I say that we're going to change over the next few decades how we raise our children how we govern ourselves how we communicate person-to-person how we employ ourselves commerce entertainment and we're about to become a multi planetary species and here's the most amazing time the thing it's happening during our lifetime it's happening during your lifetime it's happening in the next thirty years so don't blink so what's driving all this this is gordon moore one of the cofounders of intel pianist plot and his partner started in 1958 and by 1965 gordon moore had noticed something on the chips that they were producing at intel the integrated circuits and he noticed that the number of transistors per piece of silicon per dollar was roughly doubling every 12 to 18 months and in 1965 he publishes his paper and he goes you know this is likely to continue and it's been known as Moore's law and it's continued for 50 years and I want to show you what that looks like that's the first integrated circuit 1958 here we see two transistors about a half inch feature-length on each let's fast forward to the first commercial product in 1971 the Intel 4004 2300 transistors about a dollar each now let's fast forward 45 years to intel's i7 processor here we see a processor that it's 330 billion times faster when you want to understand why the world is getting faster why we're able to do the things that we do it's right here it's that transformation 330 billion times faster over the course of 45 years let me give you another visualization of what this looks like right in 1956 this was a hard drive 5 megabytes $120,000 and if you happen to have your cargo airplane you could move it from office to office now we probably notice when this happened 2005 here's 128 megabytes for 99 bucks pretty extraordinary transformation but did we notice this when over the course of nine years it went 120 gigabytes right on schedule on Moore's Law for 99 bucks a thousand times better I'm an investor in an advisor in a nanotechnology company that's focused on doing this a billion times better again right we're talking about all Google's data centers in a sugar cube and if you look at this this is from my partner Ray Kurzweil he's a co-founder with myself at singularity University this is the computational growth plotted on the log scale over the last 110 years what we see here on this curve and five paradigms the last of which is Moore's Law what ray calls this is the law of accelerating returns that we're using faster computers to build faster computers to build faster computers and it's not slowing down we don't see World War 1 or Wald war 2 we don't see boom times or recessions right and so if it's likely to continue what you get is something pretty interesting see in 2023 7 years from now the Brij computer we go and buy from Best Buy if they're still around is now calculating at 10 to the 16 cycles per second which a neurophysiologist will tell you that's the rate which your brain does calculations so what happens you can buy a human brain for a thousand bucks well it doesn't slow down right 25 years later now a thousand bucks buys the computational power of the entire human race now your kids homework gets really easy and what the insight I want to share with you is that these faster cheaper computers that are going on and on and on are sort of the foundational you know growth medium upon which all these other technologies are growing so as computers are getting thousands and billions and times faster so are these other technologies and these technologies computer sensors networks AI robotics 3d printing ARV our synthetic biology are literally recombining and giving us unexpected convergent consequences you can be an expert in one area but actually understanding where these come together and what they do the new business models are transforming our planet right here right now so the first of these networks right this is the world's population growth over the last 15 years we've just crossed the seven billion mark but if you look at Internet penetration in 2010 we had 1.8 billion people connected on planet Earth to the Internet today it's about 2.9 by 2022 225 let's call it you know eight years from now we're at a low estimate going to have 5 billion people connected which means we're adding 3 billion new minds onto the global economy they've never been accounted for before but that's the low estimate why because this guy at Facebook with drones and satellites wants to connect every single person on the planet my friends at Google with Google loons and satellites and drones when it connect every single person on the planet Paul Jacobs Richard Branson Greg wheeler have just raised a billion to deploy one web a 648 satellite constellation in the next six years to connect every single person on the planet and last week Elon was announcing with SpaceX a four thousand satellite constellation to connect every single person on the planet so I want you to imagine in the next six to eight years not five billion but eight billion connected people not coming online like you and I did right on a o L and 9600 baud right coming online with a megabit connection or better with access to the world's information we are about to see a massive explosion innovation like we have not seen yet innovation coming from parts of the world that we would have never thought of five billion new thinkers five billion new innovators five billion you creators problem solvers entrepreneurs coming online within this next decade and it's not just people it's things right last year we had 15 billion connected devices by 2020 my friends at Cisco talked about the Internet of Things the low estimate is 50 billion connected devices and by the way each one of these devices have a dozen sensors on them we're talking about heading towards a world of a trillion sensors where everything is being seen and measured and known fast forward 10 years later now we've got 500 billion connected devices 100 trillion sensors sensors everywhere in micro drones on the fabrics inside your body right letting us know anything we want anytime we want anywhere we want and oh those sensors on your body and in your body we're about to see an explosion in how we think and we connect we communicate this is Google's contact lens that's picking up glucose in your tears which correlates to glucose in your blood but that's the first step of sort of connecting to your neural system there are amazing companies right now like Colonel a friend of mine Brian Johnson one of our benefactors at the XPrize Foundation when my investors has launched 100 million dollars to be able to connect your brain to the cloud right my friend Ray Kurzweil your brain is a collection of a hundred billion neurons with a hundred trillion synaptic connections that make you you and me me now the last time we had an upgrade of the human brain was two million years ago when we said our large prefrontal cortex or sort of exploded and gave us language in art and the ability to think and and thinkin similes in all of these different areas but as we start to connect the brain to the cloud we're about to see for the first time ever an explosion in human intelligence Brian talks about it's not AI versus humans it's a chai it's the most important asset we can ever have it's the increase of human intelligence I love this copy of Time magazine plugging in the brain into the grout but that's that 2045 is not a right estimate from the companies I'm seeing Ray's estimate is by the early to mid 2030s so imagine when when you need additional memory capacity or a thousand times more intelligence you can sort of like split up like your phone does on the cloud today but by the way the early 2030s oh my god that's 20 years from now so what's the world going to be looking like we heard about AI whatever version you want from how to Siri to Google now to IBM Watson I prefer Jarvis I think we're all going to have a version of Jarvis will be talking it'll be listening you'll give permission to your Jarvis your personal software shell to read your emails watch what you're eating listen to your blood chemistry is sorting your conversations because it's giving you all the information you need just in time and these AIS are also helping us solve the world's grandest challenges on the Google stage last year I was with a head of the Watson team from IBM on an X Prize than a mere one of the co-organizers here runs and we're challenging teams to work a is to solve the world's biggest problems we get frightened about Grand Challenges because we see them from far away but guess what the tools and technologies we have to solve these grand challenges is exploding onto the scene that gives me the greatest hope for the future AI is our most important tool ever to solve our Grand Challenges and besides all of these technologies we're now beginning to understand the software code of the human species right look at this curve that white line is Moore's law it's the increasing power the reducing costs of computation that green line is how fast we've gone to sequencing DNA a hundred million dollars to sequence the human genome in 20 and 2000 by craig Venter nine months of time today it's down to a thousand bucks in two hours but it's not just reading DNA we can now write DNA we can actually create novel life forms you can design a life form your computer printout a string of DNA put it into a blank cell have it boot up for life and it's not just writing DNA CRISPR casts nine and unless you buried your head in the sand you probably have heard about CRISPR cast nine right the ability to edit our own genomes to have a disease and say let's edit that away think about word for your genome click paste' repair one of the implications that i'm focused on is extending the healthy human lifespan through genomics and stem cell science my two companies human longevity and cellularity our mission is to add 30 to 40 healthy years onto your life to give you the aesthetics the cognition and the mobility at 60 at 100 that you had at 60 and if you get that we're heading towards a world of an indefinite lifespan these are crazy ideas but they're coming because the tools we have to enable them are accelerating faster than we could possibly know the second implication I want to close with is the transformation of human species we are heading to what I call the formation of a meta intelligence I haven't talked about this publicly but I want to share it and I look at a historical analog to see where we're going based on where we have been as life on this planet 3.5 billion years ago the first life-form was a prokaryote it was a single bag of cytoplasm with a string of DNA the simplest life we knew and over the course of a billion years that prokaryotic life-form developed into a complex life form called a eukaryote and what it did was incorporated into it technology the mitochondria and the plasmic reticulum Golgi apparatus that allowed it to process information energy more efficiently and so that transformation from a simple life-form to a technology-enabled life-form is what I believe we are doing right now as we as humans are beginning to incorporate technology into our brains into our bodies we're undergoing that same transformation in the first step the second step that life took was going from eukaryotic life to multicellular life collaboration and we are massively collaborating as we go from small tribes not connected to tribes connected by the internet and soon connected by the cloud where when I think I can understand in in the purest form of empathy what you see what you hear what you feel the third is the emergence of technology of intelligence this is a moria at the early stages of a human embryo sixteen cells that grows into what we are today a collection of 10 trillion human cells in my body or your body and emergence of intelligence and what we're about to do is to connect not one but eight billion minds connecting the fashion like never before that I call a meta intelligence and I think as we connect and become a new species a new creation of eight billion connected Minds we're going to look out into the solar system to the universe and see many others remind it'll close on the notion that 400 million years ago lungfish crawled out of the oceans onto land hasn't happened since today we as a species are crawling out of the birthplace of humanity this fragile planet to the moon to Mars to the asteroids a million years from now whatever we become we're going to look back at these next few decades as the moment in time that we become an interplanetary species I believe we have during our lifetime the next 30 years the mission to inspire and to guide the transformation of the human species on and off the earth non or pleasure thank you [Applause]

Channel: TEDx Talks

Views: 149,179

Rating: 4.8148732 out of 5

Keywords: TEDxTalks, English, United States, Technology, 3D Technology, AI, Astronomy, Biology, Culture, Evolution, Future, Human origins, Innovation, Robots, Transportation

Id: 7XrbzlR9QmI

Length: 18min 52sec (1132 seconds)

Published: Tue Jan 17 2017

Reddit Comments

[u/MisanthropeX]

Bold and Brash? More like Belongs in the Trash!

[u/advancedatheist]

Did Diamandis ever practice medicine after getting his MD? Because I can guarantee that if he did practice long enough to see his patients die regardless of what modern medicine can do, he wouldn't have developed his delusion that we are on the threshold of a longevity escape trajectory.