BJP has played the biggest masterstroke of the election. They have set a narrative that they will go beyond 400. First, they will keep facts, performance and promises on the line and will say to go beyond 400 Second, more importantly, puncture the opposition and anyway Modi is winning, so what's the point in fighting? If BJP and NDA cross 370-400, Congress will fall from 50 seats and come to 25 seats. So, is this 400-seats just a election slogan? Is it just a narrative? Is it a toolkit? No. BJP really wants to achieve this. And it is difficult to achieve this. Not impossible. Point number 1. Congress and Congress leaders have demoralization. Party has not worked on its grassroots cadre for years. Congress is in the worst state in its history. Point 2. Congress loses one-on-one contest with BJP. BJP hopes that this trend continues in 2024. Point number 3. Opposition is under ED raid or breaking apart To make this possible, BJP had formed a whole committee which had only one purpose. How to break the candidates from other parties, the good MPs Look, how generous, how open-minded is BJP. Everyone will be respected. Everybody is welcome. No matter how corrupt you are. Point number 4. 2 years ago, under Mission 370, the party targeted 144 seats as weak seats. And then they started working on how to win them. This number was revised. 160 seats were targeted. And this targeting will decide whether 400 can be crossed. BJP can't do this alone. NDA alliance partners have now nearly 40 parties. These 40 allies will fight on 100 seats They will have to win these seats if 400 is to be crossed. It seems that BJP will win the election IPL on paper. But, as in cricket, so in politics, the outcome of the match is not determined by the strength of the paper. 30-40% voters do not make up their mind who to vote until the last few hrs before the polling This is why all the opinion polls are proven wrong because people don't make up their minds. If BJP was confident, IT dept would not have frozen Congress accounts, ED would not extend Kejriwal's custody, and Soren would not be in jail. They would not have chosen corrupt leaders to join her party. We will try to understand the chemistry of the parties in the country. Where is the interest? And if we want to cross 400 seats, where will the 100 seats come from for BJP? Or where will the 50 seats come from for NDA? Lok Sabha has 543 seats, majority mark 272. In 2019, BJP alone won 303 seats Combine with NDA allies - 353 seats they got. So 400 is not just a dream But, BJP did a clean sweep in Gujarat and Hindi heartland in 2019 They did a sweep in Karnataka, expansion in North East, Bengal and Odisha. Remember, 2019 election had Pulwama and Balakot factor. It was a wave of Modi and nationalism. And the opposition was scattered. So, there was no big opposition alliance. Things are a little different this time. There is no big explosion this time at least, till we are recording this episode. There is an opposition alliance, India Block. Whether effective or not, but they are trying. And on top of that, 10 years of Modi double anti-incumbency. BJP knows that some people will be unhappy, some seats will be lost. So, they will have to counter it. New seats will have to be won. Let's simplify. We can divide states into three categories in our country. Number 1, relatively stable states. The same results will be repeated in 2024. Overall numbers will not change. This will give you an idea of BJP's seats. 2. Battleground states These are the states where you will see a clash of thorns. Because seats can be up and down. These seats are also very important for the opposition. Every seat matters. 3. Swing states are the third type of states. The battleground is here but the issue is not only about 5-6 seats. But about 20-25 seats These are the states where no one can predict where the seats will go till the last moment. These are the states that will decide the outcome of 2024. Let's quickly look at these states. But remember, we are only talking about possibilities and scenarios in analysis. You have to do the real work when you cast your vote. Let's start with the most difficult challenge of crossing 400. 130 seats in the South. That means if BJP has to cross 400, they have to win here. BJP has already maxed out in North and West. So, if seats are to be increased, South is a must. But, you will get two relatively stable states here- Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Here, BJP and opposition will have chances to repeat the same old numbers. In Kerala, India block will get 20 seats In Tamil Nadu, DMK Congress left alliance got 38 seats out of 39 This time also, their dominant performance is going to repeat. Modi is trying hard in Tamil Nadu but the hope is less. In Andhra, BJP and Congress both got 0 seats in 2019. Here, YSR Congress and TDP are powerful parties BJP is in alliance with TDP and contesting 6 seats BJP gave 5 tickets to defector candidates. Where will their loyalties be? Will TDP BJP alliance survive? But BJP has hopes from Andhra. Now, let's talk about South's battleground states, Karnataka and Telangana. Karnataka has two major parties, BJP and Congress And JDS is a third force state party. Last time, BJP won 26 of 28 seats, despite Congress JDS alliance This time, BJP is in alliance with JDS This time it seems BJP will struggle to repeat the 2019 performance as per local report and analysis Congress has got a boost in state election victory. Party is strong in this state, which has always been a problem for Congress. But not in Karnataka. with leaders like Siddaramaiah, D. K. Shivakumar, Kharge given 5 guarantees to the citizens of Karnataka. BJP has tried to use Modi factor and Rameshwaram bomb blast as a security angle. But if Congress plays last mile, it can snatch 10-15 seats from BJP In 2019, BRS got 9, BJP got 4 seats, Congress got 3 seats. This time, after the state election, BRS has a low morale. Some of the leaders of BRS are running away. Some of the defectors of BRS have been given tickets by BJP. For now, Congress is the number one position There is a boost to win the election. Some of the leaders of BRS have joined the Congress party. But, in the South, it is clear that Congress can benefit from 15-20 seats and BJP can lose some seats So, this time, the formula of 400 + extra seats are not coming the South. Now, let's come to Odisha, a relatively stable state. There are 21 seats in total. In 2019, BJD got 12 seats, BJP got 8 and Congress 1. Even this time, the result is not expected to be very different. If you listen to the surveys and reports, BJP and BJD's neck-to-neck fight. But, it is almost the result of the last election. West Bengal is very interesting. It is a battleground state. What will happen? Last time, TMC got 22 seats out of 42. BJP got 18. This 18 is very significant and unexpected. Because BJP was not present in West Bengal historically. For 2024, BJP is competing with TMC for 42 seats. INC and Left are contesting together. But BJP's 18 might be difficult to increase And TMC vs BJP this 18 might be difficult to decrease A few seats here and there but the 400+ cannot be crossed with Bengal Let's come to northeast BJP and its allies have already got 19 seats in 2019. This time, target is 22 seats. But remember, after Manipur, parties like MNF have refused to support NDA. Free movement regime end, CAA implementation, etc. are all creating sentiments against BJP. Anti-incumbency is also a factor. Because of all this, BJP might lose some seats but they are not getting a major boost. Now, let's talk about North India. BJP got more than 50% vote share on most seats BJP cannot increase its seat share because it is a max-out area. The party has done its best. Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are relatively stable states. Reports say that seats will not shift. BJP's party machinery is strong. They have strong state leaders. Congress, unemployment, MSP, tribal rights... But in these states, Congress leaders have defected to BJP. Maximum 2-3 seats can be shifted. You can see a relatively stable situation in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. Gujarat is also stable but it is a battleground because BJP has a strong hold in Gujarat and this has been for years BJP leaders who are angry rebel are contesting because they did not get the ticket. BJP did not give them the ticket because a defector of Congress got it. Such independent rebels may not win but they can help Congress and AAP alliance. Let's talk about Punjab. Here, AAP vs Congress vs BJP vs Shiromani Akali Dal NDA got 4 seats last time but Shiromani Akali Dal left the alliance. Because SAD knows that it is very difficult to win if you team up with BJP especially after farmer protest BJP is not going to get anything in Kashmir Valley. You will get two seats in Jammu but what about Ladakh? Forget it. BJP doesn't have any special love for Ladakh. People are starving there. This maths cannot work in Hindi belt battleground states - every seat matters there Rajasthan, Haryana and Delhi BJP won all the seats in 2019. But what will happen this time? BJP is strong in Rajasthan. It recently won assembly election But ground reports say that BJP might have to face some losses here as well. Agni Veer scheme Farmer protest effect on areas near Haryana and Punjab. And especially, Jat community is angry with BJP. If 5-6 seats are lost, there is nothing surprising. Haryana is in the same condition. Agni Veer, Farmer movement, Anti-BJP sentiment in Jat community Some seats are tight. But BJP managed to change the Chief Minister. And gave MP tickets to many new candidates. Congress defectors have been assimilated in BJP so will they retain Haryana? Because BJP knows that the situation is tight. They won't get extra seats for 400 seats from here. As far as Delhi is concerned, AAP and Congress have shared seats. According to the analysis, there won't be any problem in vote transfer. But those who vote for AAP in Assembly elections, vote for BJP in Lok Sabha election So, there is an overlap between you and BJP. Will that overlap work this time as well? Because AAP has been tried to break, Kejriwal has been jailed And AAP is saying that this will backfire. Because AAP is getting a sympathy wave in Delhi. Similar reason in Jharkhand Hemant Soren was arrested but Jharkhand Mukti Morcha did not break and sympathy is there for former CM BJP is very strong here. Last time, they won 12 seats out of 14. This time, some seats may be lost. We will have to see where the wind is blowing. But where are the extra seats? We are not getting them from here. That is why UP is a critical battle ground state. BJP can increase its seat share here. Last time BJP got 62 seats out of 80 seats in UP. 2 BJP allies, 5 SP and 10 BSP Last time it was SP-BSP-RLD alliance. This time Congress was trying to make SP-BSP alliance. But it didn't work. Because Mayawati said that she will contest all the seats. So, the alliance was not formed. Now, Congress SP has an alliance. The vote will be transferred. But even after that, the vote share will not enough to challenge BJP And many reports clearly show that BSP is fighting separately. Because of their candidates, the non-BJP vote share will be split. On top of that, there is RLD, a small party, but that too has joined hands with BJP. On top of that, BJP has Yogi Modi factor, strong Ram Mandir and Hindutva agenda, Labharthi schemes, and initiatives, social engineering has also been done. So, BJP is confident that 2019's performance will not only repeat It will bring more seats than that. Some people are saying, all of them will be maxed out total whitewash. We have covered every corner of India except two crucial states. There are 90 seats in both states. It is a close contest. It is difficult to say who will win and who will lose. I am talking about Bihar and Maharashtra. JDU was in alliance with BJP, LJD and it got 39 seats out of 40. JDU joined India alliance for a few months. Nitish's U-turn and went back to NDA alliance It seemed like NDA would clean sweep in 2024. But Tejashwi Yadav has done a lot of good work and campaigned well. He has become one of the most active opposition leaders in the last few months His rallies are full of enthusiasm and crowd. The issue of Agniveer and Rozgar is very solid in Bihar. NDA has arithmetic, money power, Modi factor. But what is Tejashwi doing against it? He is trying to localize the election. He is not talking about national issues but about Bihar. He is talking about special status for Bihar. On the other hand, JDU has been a bit slow. They are repeatedly changing sides, no succession plan, you don't have an ideology, you have so much dependence on BJP. That's why India alliance can benefit from JDU vs RJD seats BJP, JDU, LJP still have numerical advantage. But the last moment of the story can change again for 20 seats. It is important to follow Bihar closely. Here, a lot will depend on the last moment, on the campaigning. And the state of Bihar, you will get the pro-max version of it in Maharashtra. Pro-max level of Palturam, washing machine, using it... In total 48 seats, BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won 41 seats in 2019. Congress-NCP alliance had only 5 seats. But those numbers are not important in this election. Because Shiv Sena and NCP have divided into two parts. One faction is with India alliance and the other with BJP. Maharashtra Congress' top politician Ashok Chavan also left to join BJP. But even after all these political games, can BJP keep the record of 41 out of 48? Does NDA have that much power? BJP has benefited a lot but on the ground level, for Sharad Pawar, and especially for Uddhav Thackeray, there is a lot of sympathy. People can see what kind of dirty politics has been done MLAs shifted. Will voters also shift? According to ground reports, NDA may face 20 seats loss. Remember, Maharashtra is also facing a huge agrarian crisis. There is a strong state pride sentiment which Uddhav Thackeray is trying to mobilize. He is trying to consolidate Maratha community to his side. But BJP is still strong. Their Hindutva ideology and Ram Mandir are strong enough to win votes. But if the wind changes at the last moment, then 30 seats can go anywhere No one can predict how this will play out. Maharashtra can become a game-changer state in 2024. BJP's perspective is clear. Sweep in Hindi belt and Gujarat. Increase seats in UP. Don't let them decrease in Bengal and South India. Try to increase seats in South India and Bengal. India allies want to sweep in South India. To help TMC in Bengal. At least, don't let it increase in UP. In all other Hindi-built states, especially Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, give them small defeats so overall figure is less And in Bihar and Maharashtra, try to reverse the situation. But, even after all this, there are two wild cards. Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. BJD, TDP, YSR Congress. After the election, which party will be supported by them? In total, 30-35 MPs can go anywhere in the hung Assembly. So, at a very high level, the performance of regional parties will decide whether it can go beyond 400 this time or not. BJP will not decide... regional parties performance will decide It is not in BJP's control if they can conformably come to power. The figure of 400 is quite difficult and there is emotional reason In our country, in our democracy, in our history, only once has it happened that we achieved a figure of 400. that was in 1984, when Congress achieved this figure. But that was after the brutal assassination of Indira Gandhi. There was a shock, mourning and support for Congress So, until there is no such explosion, the whole country will not follow a single party. No matter how much you try to get money, power, agency, fancy dress, interviews, it's not easy to get such a big number. After all this I will say... You and I will have to do the deed by voting Keep your voter ID card ready. Check your name on the electoral roll So that you don't get surprised at the last minute. Vote now. Remember, all this analysis is a waste in front of all the analysis you do on that one day It is not just the right to vote. Remember, it is your duty. I just have a request for you in the comment section. Just write one thing - I will vote. Our efforts will be paid off. Just one promise - I will vote
