How the World Will Change in 2021 - Robert Kiyosaki, Kim Kiyosaki, and Raoul Pal

this is the rich dad radio show the good news and bad news about money here's robert kiyosaki hello hello robert kiyosaki the richard ready to show the good news and bad news about money and today we have a fantastic guest fantastic timely subject so the other thing is somebody says you thought 2020 was bad 2021 is off to a great start so that's why i want to be very cautious on the date so that when you say something you have a relatively uh starting point any comments kim well i'm very very excited to have raul paul with us today's the founder and ceo of go global macro investor and real vision i've watched many of your videos and learned something new every single time and i'm very fascinated and thank you for your time to be with us today it's great to be here really looking forward to this and he's hiding out in the cayman which i always think is interesting you know where people are spending time these days yeah it's like james bond player that reminds me of that movie with tom cruise the firm they went to cayman didn't they yeah everybody hates that so before we go into the global macro and all this um we had this uh i don't know how i can't describe it i mean to me it's first amendment violation you know i mean parlors taken off trump they censored the president-eight states they stormed the capital and they blame him for it but it's okay to burn down a city you know i'm sitting there going que pasa you know what is happening so as a person who you're not american then you're sitting outside on the shores here but you understand the macro view when we're not politically correct you can say anything you like we just won't de-list you but anyway what do you think what is your view today again this is around january 15 2021 and so things are changing so rapidly what what is your viewpoint on the world the u.s and the economy um i think the easiest summary is to call it a [ __ ] show i mean that's a good that sums it right up that's scientific look it's very you know i don't really want to get involved in the politics of the united states because it's far too hot a subject anyway so i look at it from a macro lens what does this all mean right so what it all means right now is so biden comes in next week or whenever it is he fought on the coved virus and therefore he's likely to have to do something about it because that's kind of what he promised so again whether we like it or not our job is not to impose our once you as american voters can do that but from an observer i'm trying to look at probabilities what is the probability that the us goes into stricter lockdowns as europe is doing all over extremely high again whether we like it or not those are the facts we're likely to be dealt with so if we think of peak virus in the u.s and the fact that the political uh consensus from the democrats is going to be about more restrictive measures and again we've seen that all over the world whether it's south korea whether it's japan we've seen it in china again and we're seeing it all across europe so the market right now is having a huge bet it's maximum short the dollar it's maximum short bonds it's maximum long equities so they're expecting utopia straight to reflation don't worry about the biggest recession any of us have ever faced in our lifetimes there's no overhang everything's straight to normal having done this for about 30 odd years i know that almost all recessions get this phase in the middle and i call it the hope phase where people extrapolate a future that is probably unrealistic at that point in time so i worry that everyone's going to have these bets wrong and again there's no certainties in this world we deal in a probabilistic world and i worry that we probably got some more downside again from the stock market we've probably got the fear and a real economic slowdown that's not priced in there's more pain to come on main street there's more pain to come from small businesses there's more pain to come in unemployment that's not going away yet my guess is it starts to improve in the second half of the year and really picks up after that so i'm pretty anti-consensus here consensus is everything's fine my view is it looks fine on wall street but when you speak to any friend of ours who owns a restaurant or a bar or a any service industry i mean they're decimated and it looks like more restrictive measures are coming so it's only going to be worse for a while well anyway i can't argue with that i just i don't see that i don't see the silver lining anytime soon no but the the outcome is okay so given that set of facts what are the government going to do well we're already hearing about a larger stimulus than the one that we've just had so there's a larger stimulus in the making if the market falls if economic weakness falls and continues in the way that i think the probability of a larger fiscal stimulus goes up and the probability of the central bank being involved goes up so one of the big themes that i'm sure you guys have been following as i've been following is the kind of devaluation of fiat currency the excess of printing and what that does to hard assets um and that i think that theme is you know gold's been trading sideways for a period of time now but my guess is all of this kicks back into gear again once people realize that okay we're actually not through this there's more similars europe needs to stimulate again maybe japan needs to stimulate and a bunch of other countries as well and that plays into the hands of many of these hard asset trades that we've all looked at so can i ask you an off-the-wall question if you don't think you know that's why i'm watching is you have yellen who is secretary of the treasury and you have powell who's the fed do you see anything in that because what i see is the marriage of the treasury and the fed i thought they were separate without question so the central bank digital currencies is a big movement the imf have told us about this so the um ecb the bank of england um the pboc in china everybody's talked about it and they're essentially talking about the fact that monetary policy has run its course so the only way monetary policy can work is if it's tied to fiscal policy which is the mmt style discussion that's coming again whether we like it or not it's coming so i think purposefully to have yelling in means that those two offices basically become more linked because if not the central banks can't do any more than what just keep printing money for what to make the one percent richer and doesn't help anybody else that doesn't work what you need is stimulus that helps those restaurants that our friends have or the dry cleaning business or whatever it is and there's no way of doing it by because the banks won't lend so let me say this then isn't it helicopter money i mean they're gonna they can't you know like if you you don't have a good balance sheet you can't borrow any money but they need to get the money into the hands of joe mr mrs public so by yellen and powell marrying up they can bypass the banks and just inject cash straight to mom and pop i mean is that how you see it that's how i see it exactly right that's what central bank digital currencies do at core they create a banking function from the central bank that they could say hey robert i'm going to stimulate you this much and i'm going to charge you a different interest rate so you could have a negative interest rate because you're a saver and a student could have a positive interest rate all of this the behavioral economics of monetary policy and the combination of monetary and fiscal is all coming over the next few years so we're going to see a massive change and in the end yes it is helicopter money there's nowhere around that so how does this central bank digital currency what does that look like how does that play out and how does that affect like bitcoin and gold and silver well it's basically twofold one is this need to extend monetary policy in a way that might work because they're kind of acknowledging it doesn't work the other thing is they're acknowledging we live in a digital world everything we do we're talking over zoom now it's like sitting in the same room right the world has changed we're totally digital so you need a payments platform that can instantaneously move money around also they've decided that they want to be able to instantaneously create stimulus or withdrawal stimulus to different parts of the population so central bank digital currencies allow all of that but what it also allows is on-ramps and off-ramps for the digital world of bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies because it becomes seamless very quick i can transfer money out of dollars straight into bitcoin straight across to yen and all of that world flows so it does give us this life raft which is bitcoin that we can use as our own reserve currency much like many of us have used gold for many years and you know gold has always formed part of the system that's not going away but bitcoin is the kind of new element in the room that's really adapted to our modern environment and it makes it super super easy to use well as i was saying to you before i got on this thing is i listened to a lot of guys on youtube and you know like anthony pompliano and um of course peter schiff who trashes it and all the other characters max kaiser but you're the one who pushed me over the line because i'm sitting there and i said well rel is a um you know you're a hedge fund guy and all this stuff but when you said there's a wall of money coming in to bitcoin when when you said that it struck a chord to me i said they have to all this money is going to have to go somewhere and so that's why i want to thank you because you made me very rich it's exactly that i mean i'm i'm very lucky because i sit in the middle of you know a big public audience but also i'm i'm at the core of the financial system i know kind of everybody involved everybody is doing their due diligence on trying to set this up it's not it's easy for you and i to buy bitcoin we just set up a wallet and transfer some money but for an institution it's actually difficult because how do you account for it to bear an asset which nobody's used to um and also for accounting systems and audit functions really difficult but that's all being sold right now there's a bunch of companies doing that and so all of these companies the first were the family offices because it was easier for them but income you know we're hearing blackrock talking about it you know fidelity have made a big play in the space we've seen mass mutual we've seen corporate treasurers and that's just the start so that's the wall of money coming in because that's too much of it money it was retail money to start with 2017 the bull market in crypto was retail what's great is retailers already in this trade and we're going to get to front run wall street that never happens wall street front runs the individual this time the little guy gets his opportunity to front row on wall street well we just interviewed simon dixon and he says it's the geeks win this time so yeah it's it's the geeks the retail dreamers everybody they get their chance which is if i could plug my book i wrote this book fake fake money fake uh fake teachers fake assets and i said gold and silver are god's money because you know kim and i have um tons of gold and silver real stuff you know we started two i saw a gold mine and a silver mine that's how much i'm into it and then i call bitcoin people's money and it's it's the network right i mean could you that i think that's the thing that's hard to understand for people that it's not centralized it's a network of people watching out for their own money i mean is that kind of what the network means to you yes now think of network effects which is a thing that we've all learned about from facebook and google and twitter all that stuff what that means is the value of a network increases exponentially with the number of people using the network what bitcoin actually is is a distributed network of money so it's got all this perfect behavioral incentives um on facebook the incentive was you can speak to your friend that you saw at school right you you can keep up to date with your friends or twitter might be we can connect all of these smart people together and learn from them bitcoin is actually the more people you bring to the network the more the value of the money goes up the behavioral incentives are super powerful it's probably the world's most perfect behavioral economics incentivized program ever created it's called self-interest right it's self-interest yeah so that's my that's why it gets this religious fervor around it because people realize the more people you convert to your cryptocurrency the more value it has so it's getting so it's getting very popular institutions are coming on board governments are coming aboard it's like everybody was getting wants to get in the game but from my understanding there's only so much available is that correct that's right i mean there's 21 million bitcoins but there's only 650 mind per day now right now paypal and square alone who have it on their apps take all of the daily supply so yeah and then we've got the grayscale trust and then we've got these institutions trying to get in and the retail guys adding to their trades and getting in so there's no supply it's a crazy situation where there's literally no supply so how does it sell off we had a big seller the last couple of days so january 13th the 15th what is that that was just um leveraged traders getting stopped out of positions because a lot of people use a lot of leverage in this space because everyone wants to make super amounts of money so people who borrow money they get stopped out quickly that's the only supply there is nobody else selling their bitcoins everyone takes it off the exchange hides it in their wallet and says you're not having it much like we all do with gold we stick it in a gold hole inside it so how do you buy it so you buy it via you know one of the big um exchanges whether it's coinbase or gemini or whoever you transfer money to your bank account you do your kyc as you would with a brokerage account or you would with a gold account same thing it's not that complicated and you just buy it and then you decide to store it on the exchange which in the past has been problematic because money has been stolen from exchanges or you can keep it in a hard wallet where you kind of own the keys and the uh and you're the only person get into it and those are the two methods so when we come back i'm gonna talk to you more about this is how expansive is bitcoin i mean can it be the money of the world you know via micro satoshi's or whatever they're called i'm saying i have so many questions about it but i just want to blame you for making me rich when you said there's a wall of money coming in and i know something about you ralph you've seen the wall of money i haven't but i know you've seen it anyway i wanna thank you we'll be right back we're going more into people like you who are sitting on the fence right now saying [ __ ] am i in or am i out and we're not we don't make recommendations because that's not our job but i was once you understand the logic behind it so we were right back with bellapill welcome back robert kiyosaki radio show the good news and bad news about money and today we're very very special guest israel pal he's a founder and ceo global macro investor but i think more importantly is his real vision program you know just watching your new ad your new commercial where we promote you so you can democratize financial education and i think that is sorely needed so great job on that because you know i've been to your offices in new york and it was like going to the studio you know oh this this i've seen i've seen this studio so many times before but anyway ralph pal is a hedge fund manager who retired at 36. ralph raul is a co-founder of real vision and then he's also run a global macro hedge fund and the reason i blame him for getting me into he pushed me over the line basically because i was i was [ __ ] footing around you know after what went to 20 000 and it dropped down and it was this and when he said the words there's a wall of money coming in and as a hedge fund guys they know what walls of money look like you know kim and i don't we're real estate guys but there's a wall of money so we were learning a lot and i mean we thank you for sharing your wisdom yes and ralph i'm just curious you are you are a hedge fund manager and you retired at 36. how did you do that and then how did you get to into the whole cryptocurrency and all that what you're doing now yeah so i was lucky enough i was at goldman sachs i ran a sales business the hedge fund sales business and equities and equity derivatives i then ran a hedge fund and i you know my investment has always been in lifestyle i'm not the one who wants to be the richest man in the world i want to be the happiest so i decided that um i could probably create an income by writing macroeconomic research the global macro investor because i've been in the hedge fund industry for a long time so i i learned a lot of you know i've earned a lot of jews so i knew that i could probably write for a living and so it was a very expensive research service uh for the world's biggest hedge funds which i still write to this day and i moved to the mediterranean coast of spain and opted out of the rat race um worked about a week a month and had a great time um but in that whole process i was in europe for 2008 and then 2012 when we almost lost the european banking system and the whole eu and people came to me and said you knew what was going on and i did i was the epicenter of the financial system why didn't we know that was my parents friends friends of friends and i realized the media had let people down and so i thought i had a moral duty to do something about it i made a good career out of this i thought i could educate people and help people and give them the tools that they need to navigate extraordinary times because i knew these times weren't over and here we are in truly extraordinary times and it's still not over and so people need to understand what's going on and that's what real vision is all about we even created an entire free crypto channel real vision crypto and that's free because crypto's so important that it can change people's lives you know if you joke about you've made money but it's real what is that uh what is that channel it's called realvisioncrypto.com and it's free so anybody watching this you can sign up there and there's interviews with everybody in the space it'll give you a chance to understand you know how really monumental this shift is that's going on because it's huge and we can all make money from it more importantly so i have a question you know there's 21 million bitcoin is it theoretically possible that that could be the money for the rest of the world can it keep expanding out i mean i know that thing called satoshi's i don't know what they are but can they keep going keep dividing yes well it divides down to eight decimal places and one the eight decimal place is a satoshi so it's divisible which means that it's expandable so you know you could theoretically get to one satoshi equaling one dollar i mean that's a huge number um the reality is is we talked about before about this network effects with this but it also applies for institutional money managers and corporate treasurers because if they have it on their balance sheet they're outperforming everybody else so it encourages other people to get involved because they need to catch up then the market cap goes up so it goes from 350 billion to a trillion now at a trillion dollars it means blackrock can get involved so they get involved and the market cap goes up to two trillion dollars and that brings in the sovereign wealth funds and it goes up to five dollars and as it broadens out in its number of users the volatility comes down and it becomes a more usable form of money right now it's basically a store of value plus a call option on the future on the future of financial technology which is why we've got such this racy trajectory that it has eventually that trajectory will flatten out and it will look much more like gold which is a stable store of value but right now we're at the exciting part where we get two parts of this the store of value and the future of technology that's amazing and and one of the arguments early on i don't know if it's still an argument today is that well bitcoin is not at some point bitcoin is going to get too powerful or too much attention and the governments aren't going to like it and the government's going to try to shut it down is there any reality to that so currently the regulations are going the other way you know they're making it very clear that they want to regulate the exchanges make it viable what are you going to tell blackrock once they've got it on their balance sheet i'm sorry we're going to ban this now that's highly unlikely but let's say all the imf get together and said this is destabilizing the fiat currency world okay so then another country is going to say oh well we're going to allow it let's say the cayman islands i know come here with your cryptocurrency oh they attract capital so that game theory means that if it's such a strong hard asset somebody's going to accept it also if you think about the game theory of central banks and their reserves one of these latin american countries who've always had problems with currency depreciation is going to put it on their balance sheet and it's going to give them a hard currency in their basket and their currency is going to appreciate and somebody else is going to look at that and go we can do this too and before you know it it gains central bank adoption so it's a it's a really interesting path and i think it's it's a probable path as well over what time horizon i'm not sure let's call it 10 years do we start to see central bank government adoption at various levels and then we'll see whether it really threatens the bigger currencies right if i could put it in really simple terms is the problem with the dollar or any fractional reserve money currency is that your incentivizer spend it you know and it it goes down in value the longer you hold it correct so what that does is it causes people to spend money or get into debt as quickly as possible because the money is going down this value is dropping it's not a store of value yeah and you can look at that a number of way ways if you look at inflation-adjusted wages median wages in the united states they've basically stayed the same since 1974. but other things have got more expensive versus wages so people have taken debt to fill that gap so people feel the something going on they don't really understand it because it's not the dollar falling against the yen or the euro it's all of them going down because they're all printing money so that's why gold keeps stair stepping higher over the years it's basically holding its value and reflecting that all of the fiat currencies are going down so i actually follow gold versus a basket of 27 currencies because that shows you what it's like as a world currency and i think of gold as a world currency works perfectly because it holds its value as these currencies keep printing etc so and bitcoin works perfectly in that but has as i said the racy upside of the the technological output so we don't give recommendations as you know because that's not our job out here but let's say you have mom and pop and they've got a 401k and they've got a hundred thousand dollars in it would you ever recommend that somebody consider an investment in bitcoin or ethereum or something like that yes it depends what age it is and what you're trying to achieve um and right now it's difficult to put in a 401k because there's no or simple vehicle you can buy that the the grayscale trust it trades at a big premium but let's say you can find 20 grand yourself for 25 grand yourself and think of it in these terms if you lose half of your money if that's too painful don't do it if you think i can lose 12 and a half thousand but i could make 200 000 or 500 000 over the next five years that's the kind of bet that you have so it's really going to enhance your portfolio the younger the you are the more you should put in it because the more risk you can take the older you are the less you put in it but you might have some in because it's going to help offset other issues they might have and we were just having a discussion here with some of the members on our team and um the young guys were liking ethereum and older guys are liking bitcoin and that's narrative arc so bitcoin is an easy narrative because one step from gold you kind of understand digital goals okay easy ethereum is like the internet of money it's like a platform so younger people are more adoptive of the whole disruptive technology that a theorem represents bitcoin does too it'll have many of these attributes as well but ethereum is that and i'm very bullish on ethereum because i think the whole system is changing to this new internet of value i think real estate will be tokenized you know we're talking about it here for example on seven say that again that's something near and dear to my heart so the real estate will be tokenized and this is something great so right now i mean let me explain so right now on seven mile beach in the cayman islands is expensive apartments the average citizen of the caymans can't afford to buy them they're sold to americans and some of the wealthy families here and canadians and brits and stuff now you could tokenize it which means you can have the recorded ownership your fractional ownership that trades on an exchange so i can sell my 5 000 investment in a 10 million condo to you instantaneously what that means is your pension fund in the cayman is looking after the general population you can share in these projects that ordinary people couldn't do so let's say you're a real estate developer well you can now sell real estate high-end real estate to individuals because you're not selling one thing you're not creating a reit you're creating something that's instantly tradable it was kind of like timeshare was but this is a real ownership recorded ownership that i own a share of the property that you just built and i can trade it with somebody else instantaneously for money and that is now you're stepping on my favorite territory here i know obviously i know no it's because you know i drive around and you know kim and i are our main asset is apartment houses we have about 8 000 units but then i look at the the cmbs as you know the clients mortgage-backed securities they're in they're in the office buildings and shopping centers and all that so from your view what do you see going to happen for office buildings and large shopping centers given the information age we're going into look there was a secular shift going on i i grew up in the uk and there was a massive societal shift much like we're seeing in the us now back in about 79 80 81 and what happened was we lost the steel industry the ship building industry the coal mine industry and the tin mining industry all in one go and that never came back and guess what it's pretty difficult to retrain a 55 year old steel worker into the services economy for example so it creates structural rigid unemployment for extended periods of time and those cities took a long time to come back none of them never came back um so i think the same is true i mean realistically shopping malls that game's finished um there'll be some in certain routes but it's not really going to be there so i i think there's a there's a structural shift coming and my guess is you'll end up buying shopping mall knocking them down and building apartments because these apartments because this massive millennial population can't afford there's not enough supply they need to get into stuff we need cheaper high quality apartments but for that huge population because they're still having to live with their parents they're still in the rental economy there's a bunch of things that can be done so my guess is we'll be ripping up shopping malls and changing into other things now in in terms of office space who knows the jury's out and in stores in let's say new york city i think the jury's out i think young people will find that there's lower rents and they can create their own businesses and they can start the entrepreneurial cycle again you know changing some awful chain store like staples and turning into an artisan bakers and somebody's in control of their own income great i think that's coming because rents will come down because the chain stores won't be there any longer there is no point but artisan stuff yes shopping malls no and apartments of course so in given your let's say you have a crystal ball if you are looking into what to invest in in the future what trends do you see that people may not see yet what do you see coming look i think this cryptocurrency trend overall is bigger than people can yet get their heads around it's currently the whole space is about a one trillion dollar asset my guess is we'll be talking about a 20 trillion dollar asset plus in the next 10 years so okay we don't get many of those opportunities the other long forgotten one is emerging markets because the u.s has dominated so much this last cycle that nobody invested in emerging markets anymore can you name it an emerging market so people know which one india right there's etfs straight on india india has a phenomenal demographic high savings rate low debts it's completely the opposite of the us or europe in terms of how it looks structurally the probability of making money in india over the next 10 years extremely high and you know if you look at the relative valuation of emerging markets they're very cheap so people have forgotten about these things but my guess if we come back in five years time and have this conversation everyone's going to be talking about the bets that they've got in india and some of these other big emerging market countries and then what about china what's happening there with the uh china's more complicated so a it's got an aging population b it's got massive debt um but it kind of does know that it's got its structural problems with this banking system and the excess leverage and they're trying to clear it out so i i don't know it's not the one that i have a clear vision on india i've got clear opportunity china i don't know it's a mix and match here maybe it's just japan we've had the peak and it goes up and down with the business cycle for the next 30 years which is what japan did it took a long time for japan to change any of that excess debt dynamics so um final this is my big question if they you know what what japan did was they started buying equities is the u.s heading there i guess right now they don't need to because equities are all-time high europeans do it they don't need to because most of the pension system is in bonds so the european society of bondholders the us are equity holders equities at all-time highs the real reason to buy equities is you don't want to default on the pension obligations of the baby boomer generation which is 76 million people so if equities fall let's say there's another catastrophe and equities fall fifty percent here and stay down yes i think they will because you're going to rob all of the baby boomers of their retirement that's already a problem yeah and then i've heard i've heard the other programs you've talked about this pension crisis yeah final word on that what do you see in the pension area for boomers because i'm the old guy here it's really serious because the pensions never made enough returns because of zero interest rates to pay what people think they're going to get to retire and there's a big shock coming so whether it's the state pension plans that are bankrupt or people's 401ks that just won't have enough money for them to retire so they either stop spending which is what i think is going to happen so the whole u.s economy lowers like japan did and europe did or we end up with a pension crisis as everybody has to sell out of their equities at the same time so they've got money to spend on their bills as they retire i worry about many people talk about this the expected future returns from the stock market is negative the expected future returns from the bond market is negative and the credit market is negative so that leaves you with potentially real estate if you find the right bets and it probably leaves you with emerging markets which are positive and cryptocurrency so people are gonna have to navigate and this is again why we started real vision is people have to understand this we have to take control of our own finances now we can't leave it to some other guy because they don't actually care if we don't have the money to retire exactly exactly well thank you very much and keep up the great work you know i really appreciate it we the world appreciates and you guys do you're doing great work as well but you made me a very rich man again so i'm much more will come appreciative with a final word so thank you general welcome back robert kiyosaki mr radio show the good news and bad news about money i want to thank ralph pal he's the ceo of global macro but is also one of the co-founders of real vision fantastic financial education program uh you can listen to the rich dad radio program anytime anywhere on itunes android and youtube as long as we don't get deep platformed and you can please leave a review with us also we archive all of our programs at richdad radio.com we archive them because repetition is how we learn you listen to this program a second time you'll learn twice as much but more importantly we have friends family and business associates who are let's say not in the know financially this would be a great program to start with because ralph hall's credibility in the financial world is solid and he's a pure educator and he's the guy that pushed me over the line about bitcoin so anyway so it's a it's not a time to be complacent what i'm saying so that's why we're the rich dad radio show any comments kim well that was a fascinating interview and uh it was from the big picture down to bitcoin the most important thing he said was at the very end of the show he said you know he does what he does because people need to be educated and nobody's going to look after your money more than you are you can't put it into somebody else's hands and expect them to care about you they care about themselves so i it's so aligned to the rich dad message of taking charge of your financial life i love that and he's a heck of a smart guy oh my gosh yeah i've listened to him for years like i said i went to his office up in manhattan when they're the old real vision when they originally started and it was a nice set it was like it was like a tv studio but i've always wanted to interview them and you know they provide fantastic program they put out 20 programs a week so please listen to real vision and ralpal and they bring in some very very smart people this is the difference between going to school and listening to real vision is it trouble with academics their academics they don't operate in the real world and the people that ralph pal brings in a lot of people on these youtube sites and all this they're people who are operating in the real world nothing wrong with school teachers because my whole family is our school teachers but they don't operate in the real world they operate in the real world of academics so anyway that's why i'm very very happy to have real vision on rel pal and all of the other guests so thank you all for listening to the rich dad radio show thank you

Channel: The Rich Dad Channel

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Keywords: TheRichDadChannel, robert, kiyosaki, rich dad poor dad, motivational speakers, business ideas, make money, how to get rich, network marketing, how to make money, how to invest, passive income, cashflow game

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Length: 36min 53sec (2213 seconds)

Published: Wed Jan 27 2021