How robotics will affect the availability of employment and social benefits
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Channel: Brookings Institution
Views: 13,361
Rating: 4.7419353 out of 5
Keywords: Robotics (Industry), Industry (Organization Sector), Employment (Website Category), social benefits, workforce, Technology (Industry), Artificial Intelligence (Industry), AI, robotic revolution, Brookings Institution (Educational Institution)
Id: Mt-Hqn9qiDs
Channel Id: undefined
Length: 88min 34sec (5314 seconds)
Published: Tue Oct 27 2015
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I think it's laughable to think that 10 million truck driving jobs could simply be "transitioned" (as Nick put it) into full time Youtubers. Even though Youtube was just being used as an example to show that there are other avenues for those displaced by automation, it's still a silly comparison to make. What are the odds that those 10 + million truckers will all have an aptitude for video creation or the arts? Assuming there are a good number they still have the uphill battle of gaining a following, having ideas that generate traffic, etc. And he suggests that we come up with solutions to help them transition into roles like this. How is the government going to help someone "transition" into a full time Youtuber. Like Scott said the Youtubers who make it into a living are the stars or stand outs on the site. Also found it a bit arrogant to suggest that by raising the minimum wage cooks will all suddenly find their work meaningful and inspired. Maybe that one cook he talked to in Seattle had renewed purpose from the raise but there are millions of fast food workers who do menial tasks that could be left to automation. I agree with Nick's view that we should be optimistic about the future but blind optimism is dangerous. There are going to be frighteningly huge ramifications from the inevitable automation of millions of jobs. The consequences faced by millions of displaced workers in a short breadth of time will be dystopian in nature if a solution isn't implemented before hand to soften the blow.
This is an excellent video, and it's great that people are talking about these things. (Great job Scott!)
Does it conclude that "the industrial revolution didn't hurt people the way the luddites feared....."
Why the emphasis on physical robotics. Software has and is killing skilled jobs and the extra buying power they create is expanding lower skilled jobs. Low skilled jobs with a lot of complex physicality are very difficult and expensive to automate with a cost saving in the minimum wage range. (See the DARPA robotics challenge the check how bad they are right now) While software is killing well paid jobs right now. Wether it's online shopping, financial advice. mortgage calculators, free news sites, free music downloads, Googled knowledge, Netflix............
The value of people watching youtube is going to be proportional to their spending power. I mean, this essentially is just the people giving money to each other. Things like these don't lead to a net influx of money into the people.
Furthermore, youtube disempowers people over what ads it shows, what data is available to who, etcetera. That said, could easily imagine contenders coming up, despite googles massive infrastructure.
I suppose i am nitpicking, he wasn't really saying that it would be, though i do think he was claiming youtube would provide more jobs than it actually will. Perhaps assuming power-laws/the-same-attention-distribution, and assuming some total income, and sharing according to attention, and assuming those channels that earn enough sub-hire, you can estimate the number of jobs.
Furthermore, the "constant innovation".. adapting to the situation, continuous learning. They claim that things always get better, yet then ask this from the people. If you combine that with the claim of basic income, well, either UBI isnt going to be enough, or people will check out. And they won't come back, because they need to "continuously learn".
That is not.. well, people have to do stuff with their lives. If you're not learning in some way, you're probably stuck in a rut. People will learn, but not to "continuously adapt". I find it funny that they warn about "dystopian views" and then say things need to be done that suggest those images.
Of course, there are plenty of dystopian views. I mean, nuclear war disaster, global warming, or overstraining of resources causing famine and shit is still possible, you know. (possibly causing each other) (Hell, past dystopian images are possible; an indocrinated populace allowing their government and companies to support genocide abroad) More realistically though, you just look at what happens, and in which case "dystopias" are just the worst of disasterous events. (necessarily, by their totality)
Thanks for sharing. This video is riveting! Unfortunately riveting is no longer a human career path ;)
I mean we're gonna have to get rid of the concept of employment one day, might as well transition as quick as possible IMO.