How Putin’s rule will end - as Russia collapses around him | Defence in Depth

notorious gangster and racketeer alfons Gabriel Capone alternatively known as Scarface bigal and snorky which somehow was a slang term in 1920s America meaning sharp dresser wasn't eventually undone by his bootlegging activities or the St Valentine's Day Massacre no in 1932 he was sent to the federal prison in Atlanta having been convicted of tax evasion that plus a diagnosis of syphilis meant it was a pretty derisory end for the gangster once dubbed Public Enemy Number [Music] One when you look at supposedly roughy toughy strong men I wonder if Putin for all his be chested horse riding and other manly Pursuits might like Al Capone similarly be brought down to earth one day for an equally humdrum reason sh there was a window early in the fullscale invasion when the oligarchs around Putin the money men the ones who control the assets and therefore to a very large extent the economy of Russia could have group together to unseat him of course they would have needed the assistance of the security operators and probably the Army but that's fine they can all be bought however once the lightning 3-we offensive that's now motoring with the Elegance of a rusty t 55 towards the 2-year Point faltered and was shown to be an utter shambles many of those who had made vast fortunes from Putin's system of kleptocracy had a chance to act not that they had anything against dictators and taking for themselves money that should rightfully have gone to the people their motivation was not born of a sudden outbreak of ethics and a desire to support democracy and the rule of law on the contrary they love a bit of cronyism and the trappings it brings they enjoy their yachts and their wives and girlfriends enjoy the High Life provided they never meet but the oligarchs as powerful as they were knew their assets were only really worth anything if they were able to be listed on the international exchanges positions that also lent the whole sorry Venture of the near of respectability London grad didn't earn its Torry nickname for nothing so they were all for the kleptocratic business model and quite frankly that's fair enough they put a lot of energy into embezzling money into secret bolt holes around the world why shouldn't they enjoy the fruits of other people's labor they were happy to play second fiddle to a thug in charge as long as he kept the gravy train going but once that train was derailed which just about coincided with Russian ammunition Trains being derailed by partisans in bellus and belgrad Putin was vulnerable however either through fear or incompetence the oligarchs missed their chance those that wanted to get out of Russia did and fast those that remained were soon sanctioned and even if sanctions are a medium to long-term game in economic terms they can have an immediate effect on Mrs nook's plans for Wimbledon the oligarchs stuck in Russia might still have the gold the cryptocurrency and the cash in the Cayman but they either can't get it or can't use it they are trapped in the Noto gilded cage of Russia and as a result have lost a lot of the leverage they once had over Putin he meanwhile has been no Louch in communicating exactly what he expects of them sure they're allowed to vaunt their position of being close to the Sun but don't overdo it Lads or like yny progan you'll soon be doing your own Icarus impression when the beeswax holding together the wings of your private jets melts so no Palace coup from the old guard anytime soon ditto the military who can be bought off with the occasional pay rise and don't expect an outbreak of revolutionary Zeal from the doile and aging society that could be harmed off with Tales of Uncle Joe and the occasional hike in Social Security but what of the Young Bucks Putin has to keep one eye and preferably a heavy lid on the younger generation the adaptable optimistic adventurous and entrepreneurial digital natives that are truly generation Zed generally well educated many with mbas from prestigious Western institutions these guys are financially and socially ambitious much of what should have been the upand cominging entrepreneurial class of modern Russia have looked at the deal Putin is offering and seen it as so last century they're not interested in having to pay the bribes sorry the 5% cost of business on each deal the unacknowledged consultancy fees or additional charges to ensure you can maintain your banking license for example they've watched colleagues and family members who refuse to pay bribes suddenly be subjected to vat investigations against their businesses the cost of which usually ends up being more than 5% so are unable to vote with their hands they voted with their feet when Moscow announced the partial mobilization last year an estimated 1 million people fled the country mostly the young men who otherwise would now be running towards Ukrainian machine guns in abiva now put to one side the debate about whether they only chose to leave once their own Futures were imp periled that is a valid question but not one for today I'm interested in the effect this flight of human capital has had on Russia had it not been for the international reaction to Putin's stupidity these people could have been working abroad sucking up Global best practice innovative ideas and technological developments to power Russia through the 21st century instead they've taken their Capital human and financial and invested in places like usbekistan and Georgia locations they can still escape to all of which means Russia's future economic Outlook is not looking so Rosy but that's a problem for tomorrow isn't it surely today's fine well cracks are starting to show take Russia's oil fields companies like Exxon and Chevron have gone others too some energy companies are dragging their feet when it comes to ending their activities in Russia but they're not expanding the lack of investment in maintenance as much as ideas is impacting the efficiency and profitability of the sector and what about the labor market here too there's been a massive crunch with businesses complaining about a shortage of workers for months Central Asian migrants a traditional labor route have been encouraged to mve to Russia but many are now being put off by the risk of being forced into military service Putin of course doesn't care how many people die for his cause at the front but he will care when those bodies either aren't replaced with new soldiers or when the effect of those additional people choosing to fight in Ukraine is felt by them not working or spending at home the babushkas are still there but the economically active are increasingly to be found in a soggy trench in the D bass this all feeds inflation and weakens the ruble signs of the system struggling to cope are there if you know where to look a shopping mall in his vesque has been converted into a weapons Factory Bakers are quitting bread production because they've been told to make drones office workers are asked to volunteer to work in Munitions factories after work aavas a car maker an oen Russia's Amazon are employing prisoners it all adds up to domestic trouble Russia's Central Bank has just increased interest rates to 15% and the ruble is hovering around the psychologically important level of 100 to the dollar this wasn't the outcome Russian Society was promised Putin may be able to bury bad news about Ukraine but people notice when their money doesn't go as far as a few months before and then horror of Horrors last May McDonald's pulled out of the country the golden arches were replaced by a Russian knockoff outfit called vuso and Toka which translates as tasty and and that's it and sounds more like an order from the Kremlin than an appealing Prospect for my lunchtime custom Russia is heading for an inflection point when the war in Ukraine has an impact on the home front regardless of what is happening on the battlefield Putin can play the big man and try to lie his way to success but the evidence of his recklessness and the sickness of the system he has built is becoming apparent to Russian Society whether he likes it or not a dodgy big Mac may be a pretty lame reason for losing your crown but lame reasons count too just ask Al Capone who by the way would have seen Putin for the gangster he is a crook is a crook Capone said and there's something healthy about his frankness in the matter but any guy who pretends he is enforcing the law and Steals on his authority is a swell snake the worst type of these punks is the big politician defense in depth is a weekly video output by the telegraph of the big defense stories if you'd like a daily fix of content about the war in Ukraine I suggest Ukraine the latest the telegraph's podcast for more defense stories we've left links in the description below and if you have a topic you'd like us to cover let us know in the comments please do visit our website for the latest updates news and Analysis or failing that you 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Channel: The Telegraph

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Keywords: Telegraph, News, Defense, Defence, Defense in Depth, Defence in Depth, Putin, Russia, Путин, Россия, Russian collapse, Geopolitics, Analysis, Dom, Dom Nicholls, Ukraine, Ukraine war

Id: DvuS4NSScjk

Length: 9min 26sec (566 seconds)

Published: Thu Nov 02 2023