2021 was the year of coups. In total, six countries experienced at least
one attempt — five of which were successful. That’s as many as the previous six years
— from 2015 to 20 — put together and over three times the two-decade average. The last time the world saw this many in a
single calendar year, in fact, was after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. The UN Secretary General went so far as to
call it an “epidemic”. Clearly, coups are not a thing of the past. But what’s remarkable is how little they’ve
changed. In 1968, political scientist Edward Luttwak
released “Coup d'État: A Practical Handbook” — essentially a step-by-step cookbook for
would-be dictators. Today, over 50 years later, the same basic
recipe is used to seize control of countries like Mali, Guinea, Sudan, and Myanmar. These dictators even look like they did in
the 60s. So, how do coups work, why do these steps
seem to transcend time and place, and what does that tell us about how to prevent them? Sponsored by Storyblocks, where you can find
over a million high quality stock videos for all your creative projects. To answer our questions, we’re going to
have to temporarily inhabit the mind of an aspiring, Machiavvelian autocrat. Our very first step is to select a target. As Americans learned on January 6th, no country
is immune from coups and it always pays to stay vigilant against them. Still, there are some characteristics that
make a coup more or less likely to succeed… We see that in their geographic distribution. Coups are not as common as this chart from
earlier might suggest. Rather, a few countries seem to be trapped
in a perpetual cycle. Of the countries which have seen at least
one attempt since 1950, the average number during that period was five — or once every
fourteen years. They’ve been a regular feature of Thai politics,
for instance, since 1912. And this is just a list of the successful
ones. If you include failed attempts, there’ve
been at least 30. The Sahel region of Africa, likewise, has
been referred to as a “coup belt”. Since 1950, Sudan has experienced 16, and
both Sierra Leone and Ghana, 10. Many of these countries are poor, yes, but
not all poor countries are represented here. So what do these, in particular, have in common? For starters, they tend to have a high concentration
of power. As we’ll see, coups rarely command a numerical
advantage. They’re surgical operations, not overwhelming
displays of firepower. Our ideal country has a definite political
center — a single Capital city home to all the administrative and bureaucratic headquarters. AKA, a single point of failure. The greater the separation of powers, the
more branches of government we’ll have to infiltrate. The same is true of redundancy in general. Syria’s Assad, for example, maintained not
2, 3, or even 4, but five separate intelligence services. One might defect, but it’s very unlikely
that all four will. Besides, someone has to spy on the spies. Next, the ideal target also has low political
participation. Where revolutions are built on passion, coups,
on the other hand, thrive on apathy. Dissatisfaction with the current government,
of course, is preferable to satisfaction. But the more important dimension is engagement. Though we’ll probably want to package our
actions with some ideological window dressing, remember: we, the elite, are performing the
coup, not the masses. We’re not soliciting rebellion. Quite the contrary. We want to avoid civilian intervention. The population should know very little about
politics and — above all — believe their involvement simply doesn’t matter. “They’re all the same, anyway” and “Who
am I to change things?” are music to our ears. Now that we’ve chosen a target, it’s time
to move on to step two: Infiltrate. This crucial phase will almost entirely determine
our ultimate success or failure. But set down your aviators and take off your
barret, because this is largely an academic exercise. Our job is to draw one, giant org chart of
the current government. This includes everyone in the bureaucracy,
military, and party — from the Prime Minister all the way down to his limo driver. Except, unlike one you’d find on the national
website or Wikipedia, ours will include only the real sources of power. Corruption and simple mismanagement are likely
to have produced a large number of pencil pushers and ceremonial leaders who we can
safely ignore. We can cross off, for example, the 80-year
old general who everyone knows is all but retired. Now what we’re left with is effectively
a map of power. Our next task is to divide everyone into one
of three categories: Allies, indifferent pragmatists, and enemies. To do this, we’ll start by asking: Do we
absolutely need this person’s active support? If the answer is yes — whether because they’re
a top decision maker or simply know the email passwords — our only option is to buy their
support. If there are multiple candidates for a given
role, we’ll pick the less qualified among them. We want someone who feels under-utilized. Someone who's been passed over for promotions. With less to lose, they’ll more readily
join our cause, where we’ve promised them a shiny new office. Some, of course, will be tempted to alert
their authorities of our plan. Luckily, we anticipate this and raise the
stakes. “Your superiors are already on board,”
we tell them. Joining us should feel like the ‘safe’
option. We’ve now established our small circle of
allies. But that still leaves a wide cast of characters,
ranging from powerful military commanders to glorified mall cops. To identify the real threats, we’ll simply
ask: Is this person loyal to the ruling party? Our enemies are those for whom the answer
is ‘yes’. Many will be loud but powerless figureheads. They may even incidentally help our cause
thanks to their own unpopularity. The others we’ll make sure are distracted
at the time of the coup. Off fighting some distant war, for example,
or we may even create for them a wild goose chase. Everyone else, which constitutes the vast
majority, are “indifferent pragmatists”. Not loyal to any particular party or ideology,
they’ll sit back in silence while the coup unfolds, waiting to see how things play out. No need to worry about them; we’ll slowly
win their support as we consolidate power. …Which brings us to step three: freeze. If we’ve carried out the first two steps
well, this phase will seem shockingly easy. With our allies in place and awaiting instructions,
one could argue the coup has already occurred — it’s just that nobody knows it yet. This, again, is what differentiates a coup. Although it’s often performed by the military,
it is not, primarily a military operation. Ideally, in fact, no one will be killed or
even hurt. It’s best to avoid creating a martyr or
risk breeding discontent. Besides, we have neither an advantage in strength
nor numbers. We’ll begin this phase by freezing all movement
— both that of people and information. Airports will be shut down, TV stations taken
off the air, roads blocked, and the internet cut. Lack of information will make civilian resistance
difficult — the average person won’t even know what’s going on. The disorder will be indistinguishable from,
say, a natural disaster. Next, while our allies form a perimeter around
the Capital, a small tactical team will covertly enter the palace and arrest the current government. Upon noticing the turmoil, whatever army,
police, and security forces are outside the perimeter will make their way to it. But our secret weapon, remember, is chaos
and confusion. At the perimeter, they’ll discover not hostile
foreign targets but calm soldiers wearing their exact same uniforms . 9 times out of
10, Occam’s Razor will prevail. When faced with uncertainty, the vast majority
of soldiers will do as they’re trained: await further instructions, assuming incompetence. Even if they suspect something is fishy, few,
if any, will risk their lives on a hunch. Once again, apathy will play in our favor. By now, the opposition has been silenced,
the public thoroughly confused, and the physical symbols of power occupied. It may seem as though the coup is complete. But note the word “symbols”. Power is not merely the possession of the
telephone on the Resolute Desk, but the odds that the person on the other end will follow
the orders spoken into it. We may posess the telephone, at this point,
but one could say there effectively is no government. Our task is to somehow transform this symbolic
power into actual power. What we’re attempting is a sleight of hand
trick. We begin by deceiving just one person — convincing
them that we already have power. Their belief in our power thus becomes our
foothold — something tangible we can point to as evidence of our authority. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. A lie that — we hope — becomes true by
virtue of speaking it. It’s faking it until you make it. But be careful. This positive feedback loop can also work
against us. Slow down or lay bare the seams of our rule
and resistance will develop. And as soon as one person resists, all others
will be emboldened. Speed, therefore, is of the utmost importance. With each building we control, flag we raise,
and law we pass, the greater the rebel-or-comply risk calculus will fall in our favor. In practical terms, this means, as soon as
possible, we’ll perform the ultimate coup cliché — a victorious televised address. This is why the old government was illegitimate
and this is why we needed to intervene for the good of the nation, slash democracy, slash
economy. To increase our authoritative momentum, we’ll
immediately institute a dramatic change in policy — re-distribute land, kick out foreigners,
or do something else rash. Oh and by the way, in case you don’t see
things the same way, there’s no point resisting anyway: the battle has already been fought
and won. Fill in the blanks. It’s Mad-Libs, really. Much of the international community will no
doubt condemn our rule, but they will inevitably recognize it as it becomes clear they have
no other choice. Now, although the active part of our coup
is now over, statistically speaking, the most dangerous phase has only now begun. Recall, from earlier, the chart of coups since
1950. Of them, 242 were successful and a remarkably-even
244 were failures. What this means is that if — and, granted,
this is a big if — your coup makes it past the planning stage and becomes public — it
has an almost exactly 50% chance of succeeding. Coups, as their similarity across time demonstrates,
aren’t really that difficult to pull off. At least, in these countries. What is difficult is holding on to that power. That’s because, if you think about it, a
coup is both the product of a lack of legitimacy and a cause of it. Where they occur frequently, they become normalized. Each successful operation invigorates the
next, in a downward, bottomless spiral. The public slowly loses hope, believing none
of it matters. Apathy sets in. Apathy which makes the next one even easier. Thus, while it’s often not enough, resistance,
however small and however symbolic, still matters. Myanmar, for instance, continues to bravely
defy authority. Refusing, despite the country’s turbulent
and at times repetitive history, to succumb to numbness. And it’s through images like these that
we, thousands of miles away, connect with these important stories. Video transcends time, place, language, and
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