How America could lose its allies | 2020 Election

[Music] the trump presidency is full of viral photos but take a look at this one from 2018 it's the leaders of america's closest allies all looking in one direction and president trump looking at another it's just a photo but it speaks to one of the biggest questions in the world right now almost 70 years ago the us built a network of alliances that helped make it the most powerful country on earth but today the future of those alliances is in doubt and they were in trouble even before donald trump took office now the world is watching a u.s election that could determine what the future looks like so how did we get here what is trump's vision for america's role in the world and what's the alternative [Music] in the beginning the us had just one alliance with france during the revolutionary war against great britain but after the us won the war it backed out and that's because back then allying with another country usually served one purpose alliances were primarily used to fight and win specific wars the us was already protected by two giant oceans so for the next 150 years america was alone until 1941. the united states of america was suddenly and deliberately attacked when japan attacked a u.s naval base it shattered the idea that oceans could protect the us any longer so they formed an alliance with these countries and declared war on japan and its allies together they won the war but faced a very different world in the aftermath after world war ii there were only two major powers the us and the soviet union european countries were weak and some worried the soviets might invade them and spread communism to protect against that the u.s formed a collective alliance with 11 other countries the north atlantic treaty organization or nato the agreement was simple an armed attack on one member would be regarded as an attack on all requiring every member to come to its assistance but the reality was more complicated the us had a massive military while these countries had weak ones if any at all that meant nato was really a guarantee by the u.s to protect all these countries from attacks it was risky but it gave the us leverage over countries that now depended on them for protection it used that leverage to align those countries with its own foreign policy and many allowed the us to build military bases inside their borders giving the u.s a first line of defense against the soviets the u.s also saw threats elsewhere in 1948 north korea had become a communist country and in 1949 so did china so the u.s signed individual alliances with six more countries the us also signed a collective alliance with 21 countries in latin america by 1960 the soviet union was surrounded by countries that if they attacked would trigger war with the us for hundreds of years alliances had been used to fight and win specific wars this was something new the real gamble that the united states was taking was the idea that it would use alliances to keep wars from starting at all one of the first tests of this idea came in berlin the city laid deep in soviet-controlled east germany but was divided between the nato countries and the soviets in 1961 the soviet leader told western powers to leave instead the u.s and its allies quickly moved troops into berlin and the u.s publicly committed to uphold its promise the united states is there the united kingdom and france are there the pledge of nato is there in response the soviets built a wall through the city and back down the u.s guarantee also helped prevent further wars in taiwan and korea it proved that this system worked but only if america's enemies and allies actually trusted that the us would follow through so for the next 60 years u.s presidents said it out loud a nation cannot remain great if it betrays its allies and lets down its friends our ties with japan and our european allies are stronger than ever we will strengthen our historic ties and assure them of our support and firm commitment and it worked the soviets believed it world war iii never happened and the u.s won the cold war history is unfolding in the soviet union last one out of the soviet union please turn out the lights united states recognizes and welcomes the emergence of a free independent and democratic russia between 1989 and 1991 the soviet union and its communist allies in europe fell apart now the u.s was the world's only superpower and most of its allies were safe from invasion but for nato that created an existential question should the alliance go out of business because its primary adversary had disassembled itself or should it find a new case for its being european leaders and many american leaders supported keeping nato around to support democracy and security in europe ultimately the best strategy to ensure our security and to build a durable peace is to support the advance of democracy elsewhere it would be a catastrophe for american interest if instability were to alter the current situation in europe do we want the peace to last in 1999 nato added three former soviet allies poland the czech republic and hungary and nato started intervening in conflicts outside of its membership in 1999 it bombed serbian forces fighting in kosovo nato also helped the u.s invade afghanistan after the 9 11 attacks in 2001 and supported parts of the war in iraq in 2003 meanwhile in asia the us had stayed close with south korea and japan to counter north korea but the fall of the soviet union had made the alliances with these countries harder to justify and those relationships in a lot of ways went adrift and that all created something of a soft strategic underbelly in southeast asia some u.s leaders began to question the cost of those alliances the u.s had asked nato allies to spend 2 percent of their gdp on defense but few countries were meeting that goal so they urged nato along with south korea and japan to increase their spending while still reaffirming its promise to back its allies their cause is america's cause we will defend our allies and our interests america will always act alone if necessary to protect our people and our allies still these alliances were drifting and two countries were starting to test their weak points russian flames again bombing georgian targets this morning in 2004 nato had added seven more members including these three known as the baltic states leaders in russia became concerned that nato had reached its borders and after nato made plans to add georgia and ukraine it decided to act russia invaded georgia in 2008 than ukraine in 2014 preventing either country from joining nato but those invasions also had another purpose you can think about russia's invasion of ukraine as a prelude to what could happen if russia decided to make a quick fade accompli grab in the baltics russia was building up a massive military presence along its border and now its willingness to invade its neighbors raised an uncomfortable question would the u.s and its allies actually be willing to go to war to defend one of these small countries over in asia china developed a similar strategy since the end of the cold war china has become the second biggest economy in the world and it built a military and missile stockpile capable of controlling this whole region both russia and china have developed military strategies that seek to demonstrate two american allies that the united states can't protect them they've also introduced strategies that advance their own regional interests but in ways that wouldn't trigger a u.s response russia began launching cyber attacks all over europe and spreading disinformation in support of radical politicians in the south china sea china turned remote reefs into man-made islands with military bases on them all in an area disputed by many countries it's also issued huge loans and build infrastructure projects in dozens of countries around the world giving them not just economic leverage in those places but political leverage as well russia and china leave the united states and its allies scrambling to respond and without triggering a treaty commitment that might result in their cooperation to defend their mutual interests all of this is designed to force america's allies to doubt its commitment and potentially peel off from each other in the u.s but exactly how the u.s should deal with this was unclear then in 2016 it elected a president who took things in a dramatically new direction we've defended other nations borders subsidize the armies of other countries it's going to be only america first president trump's view was that many international agreements were inherently unfair to the u.s and that the u.s could get a better deal by negotiating relationships with each individual country so we pulled the us out of several agreements previously made with allies and be considered withdrawing from alliances unless allies spent more on defense nato members must finally contribute their fair share and meet their financial obligations trump had a point in 2016 many allies were still under their spending goals he demanded that nato south korea and japan dramatically increase it or face consequences south korea is costing us five billion dollars a year and they pay they were paying about 500 million for five billion dollars worth of protection and we have to do better than that in 2018 he abruptly canceled military exercises with south korea and in 2020 he pulled 12 000 troops out of germany all this has caused u.s allies to further doubt the us's promises in some cases it's made them move closer to its adversaries even the united states closest allies in asia like japan have increasingly deepened their tries with china so what we're starting to see is a set of hedging behaviors in case the united states does not return to the status of predictable ally and now these countries are watching an election that could decide if the us will continue to pull away from its alliances or come back trump's opponent joe biden was one of the most vocal supporters of the us alliance system as a senator and a vice president working cooperatively with other nations to share our values and goals doesn't make america suckers it makes us more secure and he's running on a platform that would pull america's allies closer who's the first world leader you would reach out to i would call a meeting of nato leadership and i would make clear that we're back but the limitations of these alliances are also the reason the us is in this situation to begin with [Music] but how exactly to update this decade's old system is a daunting question what's certain is that russia and china will keep trying to separate america from its allies and the next president will have a huge amount of power over what to do about it he'll have to answer something that every american ally is wondering who does the us want to be in the world thanks for watching this episode of our 2020 election series we asked you what you think the candidates should be talking the most about and america's role in the world was one of the most common requests marcus asked that we cover the new relationships with other countries both close allies friends and partners as well as rivals and historical counterparts jonathan asked about the international position of the u.s and especially how to restore the us's relationship with allies and tim asked how will the nominees repair america's relationships with governments and peoples of key allies like germany south korea japan and france we're still working on more episodes but we still want to hear what you think the candidates should be speaking about so please visit us at vox.com election videos and finally we'd like to thank our sponsor for these videos absolute who'd like to encourage every american to make their voices heard and prioritize voting this election so whatever you do please drink responsibly and vote responsibly

Channel: Vox

Views: 3,605,079

Keywords: election, foreign policy, trump, Map, Vox.com, vox, explain, explainer, nato, asia, france, great britain, allies, alliances, uk, britain, us history, ussr, soviet, china, china us, japan, south, south korea, taiwan, NATO, europe, ww2, america, mutual defense, us military, army, military, strategy, geopolitics, history, biden, international, ukraine, georgia, south china sea, belt and road, baltics, russia

Id: S5LrQv496Iw

Length: 12min 29sec (749 seconds)

Published: Tue Oct 20 2020

Reddit Comments

[u/Gustacho]

Vox.com and neocons, a crossover more ambitious than Avengers: Endgame

[u/[deleted]]

I say this as somebody who was a non-US vet that worked alongside most NATO countries. Anybody who has ever worked alongside NATO coalition partners knows that the United States is NATO. Without it, NATO doesn't exist. The United States represents not only the bulk of the forces, but almost the entirety of logistics and capabilities that NATO possesses. The idea that an American President taking a hard line on delinquent countries that do not meet their spending pledges is going to lead these countries to abandon US military protection is one of the silliest things Vox has produced in a longtime.

[u/[deleted]]

Could? More like, already has