>>> WELCOME BACK, EVERYBODY. A NEW REPORT FROM PROPERTY DATA PROVIDER ADAM SHOWS THAT ABOUT 1 IN 37 HOMES WERE WHAT THEY CALLED SERIOUSLY UNDER WATER THE FIRST QUARTER. BUT WHILE THAT NUMBER IS TICKING UP, IT REMAINS MUCH LOWER THAN BEFORE THE PANDEMIC WHEN THIS RATIO WAS CLOSER TO 1 IN 15. JOINING US RIGHT NOW FOR MORE ON THE HEALTH OF THE HOUSING MARKET IS AN ANALYST AT HOUSING WIRE. LOGAN, THE NUMBER ON A NATIONAL LEVEL TICKING HIGHER, OBVIOUSLY NOT A MAJOR CONCERN. THAT REPORT DID GO TO POINT OUT THAT THERE ARE SOME SOUTHERN STATES WHERE THE NUMBER IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WHAT'S HAPPENING >> YES, THERE'S ACTUALLY A CERTAIN SMALL PERCENTAGE OF HOMES THAT ARE THE VALUES ARE 125% FOR A FEW YEARS NOW, BUT IN GENERAL WE HAVE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF UNDER WATER HOMES EVER IN HISTORY. NOW, THERE'S POCKETS OF AMERICA WHERE ASSUMING THAT YOU BOUGHT AT THE VERY PEAK IN 2022, BOISE, AUSTIN, SEATTLE, TECHNICALLY YOU COULD BE UNDER WATER, BUT IN SCALE TERMS THE UNDERWATER ISSUE IS NOT A PROBLEM I THINK IT BECOMES MORE OF A PROBLEM IF WE DID HAVE A JOB LOSS RECESSIONS. HOME PRICES FELL, THEN THAT PERCENTAGE WOULD GRADUALLY RISE ALL ACROSS THE COUNTRY FOR THOSE THAT BOUGHT AT THE VERY END OF THE ECONOMIC CYCLE. >> THAT MAKES SENSE THAT IT'S NOT A PROBLEM UNLESS SOMEBODY LOSES THEIR JOB OR THEY NEED TO MOVE THOSE ARE THE ONLY TWO SITUATIONS WHERE I GUESS IT BECOMES A HUGE ISSUE WHY IS IT A BIGGER DEAL IN SOME OF THESE SOUTHERN STATES, SOUTHERN CITIES? >> THERE ARE POCKETS OF THIS COUNTRY WHERE HOME PRICES REALLY DIDN'T APPRECIATE, AND IF ANYBODY DID HAVE A VERY LOW DOWN PAYMENT, THEN YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THOSE HOUSE. BUT WE ALSO HAVE TO REMEMBER 40% OF HOMES IN AMERICA DON'T HAVE A MORTGAGE, AND THE LOAN TO VALUE IS GENERALLY TERMS ARE THE L LOWEST LEVELS EVER THERE ARE GOING TO BE POCKETS. THAT'S WHY I HIGHLIGHT SEATTLE, AUSTIN, AND BOISE, THOSE HOMES COULD BE DOWN 10%, THOSE HOMES ARE ONLY 3% DOWN YOU'RE TECHNICALLY UNDER WATER. IT'S NOT JUST A SHORT SALE OR FORECLOSURE RISK IT'S A SUPPLY SUPPRESSION AND THE LACK OF ABILITY TO MOVE UNLESS YOU BRING CASH INTO THE CLOSING OF THE TRANSACTION SO YOU CAN SELL YOUR HOUSE AND MOVE. >> IT IS THE SPRING SELLING SEASON WHAT ARE WE SEEING AT THIS POINT? ARE THERE MORE HOUSES THAT ARE GOING ON THE MARKET? IS THERE MORE SUPPLY IS THERE BUILDING THAT'S BEING DONE >> YES, THIS HOUSING MARKET THIS YEAR IS MUCH BETTER THAN LAST YEAR INVENTORY IS GROWING YEAR-OVER-YEAR, NEW LISTINGS DATA IS GROWING YEAR-OVER-YEAR, IT'S NOT A LOT IT'S ABOUT 150,000 HOMES FROM LAST YEAR AT THIS POINT, BUT IT'S STILL A POSITIVE. LAST YEAR WASN'T A POSITIVE FOR THE HOUSING MARKET WE WERE AT RECORD LOW LEVELS OF SALE INVENTORY DIDN'T GROW, PRICES ROSE, WHICH MADE HOUSING LESS AFFORDABLE THIS YEAR EVEN WITH MORTGAGE RATES ELEVATED WE ARE GROWING INVENTORY YEAR-OVER-YEAR, NEW LISTINGS DATA IS GROWING YEAR-OVER-YEAR, BUT CONTEXT IS KEY. 2023 WAS THE LOWEST LEVELS EVER RECORDED IN HISTORY. WE'RE STILL TRENDING AT THE L LOWEST LEVELS EVER IN NEW LISTINGS OR ACTIVE LISTINGS. MUCH MORE POSITIVE THIS YEAR THAN IT WAS LAST YEAR, AND PRICE CUT PERCENTAGES ARE SLOWLY RISING. >> THAT'S THE CHART WE WERE JUST LOOKING AT IT'S A LITTLE COUNTERINTUITIVE THESE ARE THE NUMBER OF HOMES THAT HAVE TO HAVE A PRICE REDUCTION. WHEN YOU SEE THAT GOING UP, IT'S SIGNALING THAT MAYBE HOUSES ARE STAYING LONGER ON THE MARKET, BUYERS HAVE TO OFFER -- OR SELLERS HAVE TO OFFER A DISCOUNT TO GET A BUYER IN? >> YES, AS INVENTORY GROWS AND RATES STAY ELEVATED, PRIETCE CUT PERCENTAGES SHOULD GROW. AS YOU CAN SEE IN THE CHART, THE SLOPE OF THE CURVE WAS VERY FAST, MORTGAGE RATES FROM 3% TO 7%, THE SLOPE WENT UP. HERE IT'S A MUCH MORE SLOWER SLOPE. IT IS A MUCH MORE HEALTHIER MARKET THIS YEAR THAT ACTIVE INVENTORY IS GROWING AND NEW LISTINGS GROWING MOST SELLERS ARE BUYERS SO YOU GET A LITTLE BIT MORE DEMAND AS MORE PEOPLE SELL THEIR HOMES BUT AGAIN, REALISTICALLY WE'RE AT RECORD LOW LEVELS OF SALES. IF MORTGAGE RATES WERE TRENDING TOWARDS 6% AND STAYED THERE, WE COULD HAVE DEFINITELY THE SALES LEVELS START TO PICK UP AND HOLD, BUT LATELY WE HAVE RATES FALL DOWN, DEMAN
