<i> ( APPLAUSE )</i>
>> Stephen: HEY, EVERYBODY, WELCOME BACK TO "THE LATE SHOW." MY NEXT GUEST IS A SENIOR FELLOW
AT THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION WHO HAS ADVISED THREE PRESIDENTS ON
RUSSIAN AND EUROPEAN POLICY. HER NEW BOOK IS, "THERE IS
NOTHING FOR YOU HERE." PLEASE WELCOME FIONA HILL! ♪ ♪ ♪<i>
( APPLAUSE )</i> ♪ ♪ ♪<i>
( APPLAUSE )</i> >> Stephen: THANKS FOR BEING
HERE. AS I SAID, THE BOOK IS "THERE IS
NOTHING FOR YOU HERE." U.S. INTELLIGENCE OFFICER IN THE
BUSH AND OBAMA ADMINISTRATIONS, NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL,. THOUGH MOST PEOPLE HERE MIGHT
RECOGNIZE YOU FIRST FROM YOUR TESTIMONY IN THE 2019
IMPEACHMENT HEARINGS. ( CHEERS AND APPLAUSE ). THE FIRST ONE, THE O.G.,
IMPEACHMENT CLASSIC. YOU'RE A FORMER INTELLIGENCE
OFFICER. IT'S BEEN SIX DAYS SINCE RUSSIA
INVADED UKRAINE. AND THE E.U. HAS SHOWED
UNPRECEDENTED UNIT NERESPONSETO THIS. WHAT IS MOST SURPRISING TO YOU
ABOUT BOTH THE INVASION AND THE RESPONSE? >> WELL, FIRST OF ALL, ON THE
INVASION, SADLY, WHAT'S BEEN MOST SURPRISING IS THAT IT'S
GONE ON FOR SO LONG. BECAUSE --
>> Stephen: WE WERE TOLD IT WOULD BE VERY QUICK, LIGHTNING
STRIKE, TAKE OVER THE CITIES, AND YOU THOUGHT IT WOULD BE THE
SAME THING. >> I THINK EVERYBODY DID,
THINKING OF THE PREPONDERANCE OF POWER THE RUSSIANS HAVE,
VIS-A-VIS THE UKRAINIANS. WHEN THEY'RE FACING AN INVASION
FORCE OF ALMOST 190,000 MEN WITH ALL OF THE STATE-OF-THE-ART
EQUIPMENT THAT THE RUSSIANS HAVE GOT, WE THOUGHT THEY WOULD HAVE
MOVED A LOT FASTER. SO WE THINK IN PART THE RUSSIANS
MIGHT HAVE INITIALLY BEEN TRYING TO MINIMIZE CASUALTIES. AND IN TERMS OF WHAT YOU SAID
ABOUT THE EUROPEAN RESPONSE WAS, YES, WE WERE PRETTY SURPRISED BY
ALL OF THIS AS WELL. AN I'M SURE THAT PUTIN AND THE
RUSSIANS HAVE BEEN QUITE SURPRISED, TOO. BECAUSE THERE WAS AN ASSUMPTION,
FOR EXAMPLE, THAT A LOT OF BUSINESSES IN EUROPE WOULD HAVE
BEEN VERY RELUCTANT TO PULL BACK FROM THEIR INVESTMENTS IN
RUSSIA, GIVEN OIL AND GAS AND THE DOMINANCE OF THE RUSSIAN
ENERGY SECTOR IN EUROPE THAT PEOPLE WOULD HAVE THOUGHT, "I
DON'T WANT TO FREEZE TO DEATH." SO IT'S VERY SURPRISING TO SEE
MAJOR OIL AND GAS COMPANIES, FOR EXAMPLE, PULLING OUT OF RUSSIA,
ALONG WITH ALL KINDS OF OTHER BUSINESSES. SO IT'S NOT JUST THE GOVERNMENT
RESPONSE. IT'S WHAT EVERYBODY ELSE HAS
DONE ON A LEVEL OF BUSINESS, COMMERCE, AND ORDINARY PEOPLE. >> Stephen: WELL, SO FAR, THE
GOVERNMENT SANCTIONS, RESTRICTED AIR SPACE, BANNED RUSSIA FROM
SWIFT. THEY DON'T GET TO SEE THE NEW
"BATMAN" MOVIE. >> THAT'S RIGHT. >> Stephen: WHAT, SHORT OF
DIRECT MILITARY INTERVENTION, CAN OR SHOULD BE DONE IN YOUR
OPINION? >> THERE ARE ALL KINDS OF THINGS
WE COULD BE DOING NOW, AND I'M SURE A LOT OF THESE ARE UNDER
DISCUSSION. IT'S VERY DIFFICULT FOR US TO DO
SOMETHING ABOUT THE AIR SPACE OVER UKRAINE BECAUSE THAT WOULD
BE SEEN AS DIRECT INTERFERENCE. BUT WHAT WE'VE CLOSED AIR SPACE
TO RUSSIAN COMMERCIAL CRAFT AND ALSO MILITARY AIRCRAFT. BUT THERE ARE HUMANITARIAN
CORRIDORS THAT WE MIGHT NEED TO BE ESTABLISHING THERE, BECAUSE
WE HAVE HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF UKRAINIANS WHO ARE BASICALLY
FLEEING INTO ALL THE NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES. WE'RE GOING TO NEED TO HAVE A
LOT OF MEDICAL ASSISTANCE ON THE BORDERS, FOR EXAMPLE, BECAUSE I
CAN QUITE WELL IMAGINE WE WOULD START TO BE HELPING WOUNDED
UKRAINIAN SERVICEMEN, AS WELL AS CIVILIANS. AND THERE'S ANYTHING TO BE AN
AWFUL LOT OF ASSISTANCE THAT IS GOING TO COME IN, NOT JUST FOR
THE REFUGEES IN PLACES LIKE POLAND OR SLOVAKIA OR FURTHER
AFIELD IN EUROPE. BUT YOU'RE STARTING TO SEE
PEOPLE GO IN THERE TO FIGHT. IT'S NOT JUST UKRAINIANS. UKRAINE HAS AN ENORMOUS NUMBER
OF HEAVYWEIGHT BOXING CHAMPIONS WILL OF THE WORLD, INCLUDING THE
MAYOR OF KYIV. AND HIS BROTHER, THEY'VE MADE
THIS AMAZING SET OF VIDEOS FOR SOCIAL MEDIA. YOU'VE GOT ONE OF THE CURRENT
HEAVYWEIGHT BOXING CHAMPIONS WHO HAS GIVEN UP HIS FIGHT TO GO
BACK. YOU HAVE PEOPLE SAYING I WANT TO
GO IN THERE AND DO SOMETHING TO HELP THE UKRAINIANS, WHICH IS
NOT SOMETHING I DON'T THINK RUSSIANS WOULD HAVE ANTICIPATE. >> Stephen: YOU HAVE STUDIED
PUTIN FOR DECADES AND YOU MET HIM MANY TIMES. YOU SAY IN THE BOOK-- AGAIN
"THERE IS NOTHING FOR YOU HERE--" YOU WRITE ABOUT SITTING
NEXT TO HIM A DINNER. "A," WHY WOULD PUTIN LET SOMEONE
WHO STUDIES PUTIN SIT NEXT TO HIM AT A DINNER? <i> ( LAUGHTER )</i>
AND WHAT'S HIS DINNER CONVERSATION LIKE? IS IT LIGHT AND SPARKLY? IS HE FLIRTY? WHAT'S HE LIKE? >> AS YOU CAN IMAGINE, IT'S
PRETTY SPARSE. AND THE MOST DISTURBING THING
SITTING NEXT TO HIM AT DINNER-- HE WAS ON THE SIDE RIGHT HERE--
HE DIDN'T EAT OR DRINK ANYTHING. THAT'S WHY I'M NOT TOUCHING THAT
CUP OF WATER. >> Stephen: NOT EVEN WATER. >> HE DOESN'T EVEN TRUST HIS OWN
WATER AND TEA THAT'S THERE, TEA PROBABLY WE CAN THINK ABOUT
PUTTING THE PILOANIUM IN THE TEA FOR THE FORMER SPY IN LONDON. >> Stephen: WAS THAT THE
POLONIUM IN THE SUSHI? >> IT COULD BE. GIVEN THE RISKS --
>> Stephen: DID YOU TALK TO HIM? >> SORT OF. THE THING THEY COULD SEE IS,
LIKE YOU HAVE ON YOUR DESK HERE, YOUR NOTES. YOURS ARE IN VERY SMALL FONT. HIS WERE IN ENORMOUS FONT SO I
COULD SEE THEM, AND HE WASN'T WEARING GLASSES AND I WAS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SEE HE WASN'T WEARING CONTACT LENSES. MOST OF US-- CERTAINLY ME-- I
COULD READ HIS NOTES BECAUSE THEY WERE THAT BIG IN TERMS OF
FONT. THE ONE THING I NOTICED IS HE'S
SHORTSIGHTED. HE'S NOT THE SUPERMAN WE THINK
OF. >> Stephen: YOU CAN'T READ MY
CARD? >> I CAN'T READ THE CARD. >> Stephen: YOU CAN'T READ,
"GET HER TO DRINK THE TEA." NOW, DO YOU THINK THAT THERE'S
ANY FEAR OF HIS OWN OLIGARCHS, YOU KNOW, LIKE BECAUSE THERE'S
NO HONOR AMONG THIEVES. AND IF HE SHOWS WEAKNESS, THEY
COULD TURN ON HIM. >> I DON'T THINK IT'S REALLY THE
OLIGARCHS SO MUCH AS THE PEOPLE IN HIS INNER CIRCLE. SO THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE COME UP
WITH THIS PLAN OF INVADING UKRAINE, LET'S SAY FIRST OF ALL,
IT'S NOT RUSSIAN PEOPLE, AND IT'S NOT ALL THE PEOPLE IN
RUSSIAN BUSINESS. IT'S A VERY SMALL CIRCLE OF
PEOPLE THAT INCLUDES THE HEAD OF INTELLIGENCE, ALL OF THESE
SECURITY SERVICES. AND THESE ARE NOT THE KIND OF
GUYS WHO HAVE YACHTS OFF MONACO, BASICALLY PALACES IN PARIS OR
ANYTHING LIKE THIS. THESE ARE PEOPLE WHO ARE VERY
MUCH ROOTED IN RUSSIA ITSELF. AND I DON'T THINK THEY'RE TOO
WORRIED ABOUT ALL OF THESE SANCTIONS AND EVERYTHING THAT'S
CUT OFF, BECAUSE THEY'RE NOT INVESTED IN THE WEST. THEY'VE REALLY GOT THAT BUNKER
SIEGE MENTALITY. AND THEY'RE THE PEOPLE HE
PROBABLY DOES HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT. BECAUSE IF THIS WAR DOESN'T GO
WELL, IF IT LOOKS LIKE RUSSIA IS LOSING, I DON'T THINK THEY CARE
ABOUT THE WORLD OF PUBLIC OPINION, BUT IF THERE'S NOT ANY
MOVEMENT ON THE GROUND, IF THAT GREAT CONVOY OF TANKS JUST
BASICALLY RUNS OUT OF GAS AND IS JUST LEFT THERE AND THEY HAVE TO
MOVE FURTHER-- IF THEY HAVE TO LAY WASTE TO UKRAINE TO GET A
SUCCESS, THAT'S ALREADY GOING TO BE THE THE KIND OF PROBLEMS. YOU MIGHT THEN START TO GET A
BACKLASH FROM THOSE PEOPLE THINKING THIS HAS NOT GONE AS
THEY INTEND. >> Stephen: NOW, YOU'VE SAID
IN ANOTHER INTERVIEW THAT, YOU KNOW, HE DOESN'T BUILD WEAPONS
NOT TO USE THEM. SO IT IS-- IT IS-- IT IS
CONCEIVABLE HE WOULD USE A TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPON. PUTTING THAT ASIDE, THAT IS THE
IMPETUS FOR THIS QUESTION IS WHAT OFF RAMP IS THERE FOR
PUTIN, SHY OF ACTUALLY TAKING AND HOLDING UKRAINE-- BECAUSE
THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE SUCCESS OF HIS ARMY SO FAR AND
THE SIZE OF HIS MILITARY-- THAT THEY CAN HOLD THAT SPACE. WHAT CAN HE GET, SHY OF UKRAINE
AND THE WEST SAYING, "OKAY, TAKE UKRAINE," THAT WOULD ALLOW HIM
TO LEAVE AND SAVE FACE. >> THAT'S THE REAL PROBLEM WE
HAVE RIGHT NOW. WE HAVE TO THINK LONG AND HARD
HOW WE STRUCTURE, FIRST OF ALL, DISCUSSIONS AND NEGOTIATIONS,
WHICH WE CAN'T IN THE MIDDLE OF A MASSIVE INVASION BECAUSE WE
WANT TO SEE THE PULLBACK FROM UKRAINE, AND THE WITHDRAWAL OF
ALL OF THE FORCES, NOT JUST THE PULLBACK FROM HOSTILITIES. THE PROBLEM IS, JUST AS YOU'VE
LAID IT OUT, PUTIN WANTS US TO TAKE AN OFF RAMP. HE WANTS FULL CAPITULATION-- HE
ALREADY SAID THAT. HE TOLD THE UKRAINIAN MILITARY
TO LAY DOWN THEIR ARMS AND EVEN OVERTHROW PRESIDENT ZELENSKY AND
THEIR GOVERNMENT. THAT'S NOT HAPPENING. HE WANTS TO TAKE AS MUCH
TERRITORY AS HE POSSIBLY CAN AND BASICALLY HAVE A NEGOTIATION
THAT LEAVES HIM IN CHARGE OF AS MUCH OF UKRAINE AS HE CAN
POSSIBLY HAVE. THAT IS UNACCEPTABLE. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO BE
THINKING ABOUT HOW WE TRY TO GET SOME PRESSURE ON HIM TO FIND A
WAY OUT OF THIS THAT WE'RE ALL GOING TO HAVE TO FIGURE OUT. AND I THINK, HONESTLY, ONE OF
THE FEW WAYS THAT WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET TO HIM, IS IF FOR
EXAMPLE, PRESIDENT Z I AND THE CHINESE EXPRESSED SOME
DISPLEASURE, BUT THAT SEEMS A PRETTY LONG SHOT AS WELL. >> Stephen: FIONA, THANK YOU
SO MUCH FOR BEING HERE. THE BOOK IS "THERE IS NOTHING
FOR YOU ERE." IT'S AVAILABLE NOW. FIONA HILL, EVERYBODY. ( CHEERS AND APPLAUSE ). WE'LL BE RIGHT BACK.
