Has The Next Silver Run Started?

hi and welcome back to the channel today if this is the first time you've ever landed on my channel my name's neil and i talk about economics so this is predominantly a finance channel where i specialize in the housing market i also specialize in some other investments predominantly in silver and today what i'm going to do is revisit a forecast that everyone said i was crazy and insane to make on the 22nd of march 2020 this year you can visit that video on my youtube channel where i said that silver was about to boom to explode in price any time now anytime in the next few months personally i would go into silver now that is one bit of advice i don't mind giving you i would buy into silver right now because even if the price does drop lower you are still going to make money on silver you have to when the price of silver is below the price to mine it so your finished product is below the price to mine it you can only make money i was really expecting it to happen around august or september but we've just had that early run on the silver price in july so it was exactly four months to the day that i made that prediction where i said that the 120 to one that's the gold to silver ratio 120 ounces of silver equaled or to purchase one ounce of gold would go back to 80 to 1 that's what i said 80 to 1 and it could even go to 40 to 1 in the most extreme of situation gold is definitely going to go up silver is going to match gold in terms of this silver to gold ratio that could be 80 to 1 it could even be 40 to 1 we don't know at this stage again people thought i was crazy to make that prediction but right here as i stand and as you're watching it today we are sat at 83 to 1 as a ratio i also made a follow-up video to this and it's coming up to three months ago when i made that follow-up video uh if you haven't seen that i'd highly recommend watching it explains gold to silver ratio and a whole host of other things around investing into silver and i explained that i'd gone pretty much all in on the spare cash that i had because i'm already diversified but the spare cash i had i went all in i bought tens of thousands of ounces of silver because i said that silver was historically low right now and i explained why that was um again i'd watch that video and i said there's only one way silver can go and that is up to a new record high i'm going to talk about that in a moment and i don't feel that what i do as an investor a lot of people say how is it that you're 100 accurate over the years on all of your investments and your forecasts um well again as i said last week on the q a at some point i will be incorrect on an investment so just add that can be out there but the main reason is i'm a student of benjamin grahams i study warren buffett charlie munger ray dalio these are the only people that i follow a good book for you to read is the intelligent investor it never leaves my desk that book is my reference book for investing because i'm a long-term investor i study the trends and as a famous person once said those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it and that's really what i've done with the success of my silver investing in that i studied the last recessions and actually we're going to go to a screen share in a moment i'm going to show you how you can also forecast this and learn from the situations that have occurred in history with the recessions and what happens to the silver price but the main point i want to get across to you is that the silver market is absolutely tiny in comparison to other markets such as the stock market so what happens is with the silver market anytime that a large investor gets into the market it really alters the price dramatically and we've had a lot of influences on it of late including the us dollar with all the quantitative easing this has really put a lot of pressure on the dollar and investors have run back to their safe havens which is gold and silver a lot of people have been talking about bitcoin as a safe haven and other cryptos i am anti-cryptocurrency just so you know i'm sure i get a lot of dislikes for that but that but i am i believe that gold and silver are historically when you look back a store of value and they are safe if you look at the bitcoin and some of the cryptos which i predicted on uh four or five maybe six months ago now i said that they wouldn't be a store of value in a recession and that prediction did actually come true in that they didn't spike with gold and silver yet they may still do it but they haven't as of yet so before we go to the shared screen then and run the analysis if you're a subscriber i'd really appreciate if you click the like button for the youtube algorithm so this video actually gets ranked thank you so much and if you're not a subscriber why not consider subscribing join in the community and if you want some more one-on-one investment advice you really want to take your investment to the next level or you need some assistance with what to do with your finances maybe consider joining the patreon community where there are other investors just like you okay so welcome to my shared screen now on my laptop now we're going to start off by looking at the silver price over the last six months so this is the silver price in us dollars per troy ounce for the last six months so going back in 2020. now i've managed to grab the low point of the last six months which was 11.66 which was on the 18th of march 2020. now is it a coincidence that i then made a video just four days later saying that we've now reached the low point of the silver market and it's all uphill from here um some people think it's a coincidence but if you've been following me for a while you'll know that wasn't a coincidence and what i said was that we were now ready to start the silver run and that has happened if you look what happened as we came out of march and we started this run we had a little bit of a jump here late march and then it's sort of gone up very gradually this is what happens you know some people say oh it went you said it was going to go up and then it dropped a little bit for everyone who you know understands investments you'll know that that isn't actually how things happen you will have ups you'll have downs up down up down and it will continue like that even when you've got a run so you can see how we went right through may it was gradually gradually climbing until second of june early june we're at 18 20 cents and then it just dropped a little bit to 17 and a half but overall it started to climb now this was the big boom here that i predicted if you watch my other videos you'll see i made this prediction this is the boom that came in or the big jump and you'll see we went from here and if i can get on this at 19.37 an ounce and we jump to 23. and 27 cents as an all-time high these last six months now if we go back then what i want to show you is the all-time high here so let's just get on this okay so here we are on the all-time high which was 49.40 now this occurred this is very important this occurred right here the 18th of january 1980 49.45 an ounce i'll come back to this in a moment but if you look whenever there's been recessions what happens is you have gold in fact let me pull up the gold chart all right so here's the gold chart we're on now again another recession recessionary period 1980 what always happens is people run back to hard assets stores of wealth stores of value like gold so here we had the run from the 08 crisis the housing crisis and people ran to a safe haven which was gold and we got if i can get on this 1 855 per ounce as a high of that time on the 8th of september 2011. a lot of people don't understand metals and they don't know how to read the charts but this is a crucial date right here because what happened was we really reached a peak in the recession with people jumping across we had a drop then it went down to what 1500 1565 then we had another rebound again up to just under 1800 and then it came down as we came out the recession this ladies and gentlemen is pretty normal for these sort of uh events now look what happened what did i say would happen to the gold price i said it would go up because it's always the first safe haven this is first every single time and what follows is silver and it's the same it happened last time let's pull up the silver chart again silver was just behind gold up to its peak now what's happened here is gold started this run early so gold started this run um the summer 2019 we started this run before there were any major issues now when i say major issues i'm talking about coronavirus but already a lot of serious investors knew that the stock market was over inflated and it is people who say it's not um they're living in a dream world the stock market is overinflated the real estate market is also over-inflated and again real estate is regional but it's over-inflated by maybe 35-40 percent house prices are overpriced that's why i say there will be a correction there will be a crash soon the stock market as well there's going to be a correction there so what happens is people who are very very good especially value investors they will run to the safe haven assets like gold and look at this look at where we are at the moment with the gold it is just climb it's going it's going on a room and silver is closely mirroring and matching now so we've started this room and again does this mean that i'm saying that this is the big boom now and we're going to go to say 50 an ounce silver well not necessarily that's not what i'm saying we could even have another dip that might happen anytime but it will it will go on a run there's no doubt i've got absolutely zero doubt otherwise i wouldn't have put so i wouldn't have gone in so heavily into silver so i do believe that we're going on a run now do you think this is going to happen and just to show you now the gold to silver ratio that i talked about so remember when i was talking about the peak the of the gold silver ratio at 120 to 1 and i said it would come back to about 80 to one and then it may even in in crazy crazy uh instances go to 40 to one in terms of this silver to gold ratio that could be 80 to one it could even be 40 to one we don't know at this stage but look where we are now we are at 83 where are we 83.49 so 83.5 to 1. so we're almost there this is the prediction that people said neil is an idiot has he lost his mind has he gone crazy this is what people were saying these these experts it will never come back down silver's never going to go anywhere and yet it's it's happened and again it's not because i've got a crystal ball i just know how to read the markets and the investments and where they're going i also said that there was a massive silver shortage back then and the silver shortage four months ago would it would take a while but there would be a knock-on effect and that has also happened now so you remember i said i purchased let's bring up my account here yep so here it is i'll just blur out my details here but you remember i said that i purchased in at quite a number of monster boxes a monster box is basically 500 american eagles so i bought a number of these monster boxes i won't tell you how many i bought but i bought a fair amount of them and these ones are in you in the u.s so they're stored in the california vault and i bought these at 8 960. for the box um so it's a spot price of 15.33 and again a lot of people said i was crazy for going all in like this i'm buying all these monster boxes but again i don't see it as craziness i just see it as studying the his the the past study in history and having a really strong idea of what's going to happen especially with all of this quantitative easing that's really the key indicator here when there's so much money printing quantitative easing or currency printing more accurately it pushes up the price of gold and silver now i said there'd be a massive shortage and it's taken me about 20 minutes of searching online just so i could find some mints that actually have metal and it was really really really hard in the uk there's almost no one that has large quantities yes you can buy a few britannias here and there a few maples a few eagles but if we're talking about large quantity for a serious investment good luck you're really struggling so i found let's let's have a quick look jm bully and i thought they'd have some for sure here's a monster box here you can buy look currently out of stock so even j and bullion haven't got any let's go over to mike maloney's company gold silver which is a again i recommend mike maloney if you don't know who he is i don't know if they've got it in stock because it doesn't say here but you can see i bought in at just under 9000 and look at the price here this is not a long time ago and already i pretty much almost doubled my money on that investment let's see who else we've got kitko i thought they'd have it sorry this item is out of stock so even kitco haven't got it let's move over to sd bullion now and you can see uh notify me so again out of stock uh it looks as though they've got one in stock here but 18 000 right so if you purchase this you buy in 18 000 and you'd have bought at the same time when i bought right at 9000 you would have doubled your money in just nine months and i still think we've got a lot more of a run to come on this um but yeah at max as well good luck struggling to gain the quantity we this was the only one i found that i could buy right now i can 16 380 but it's so difficult to get to get much a quantity of metal right now very very difficult indeed because it's uh in fact let me go to my notes and i'll tell you a few of the reasons why so the first point i want to bring up is that i said that the mines would close down as a result of the coronavirus that did happen a lot of the mines that produced silver were closed down and remember people always think it's just silver mines that produce silver that's not accurate silver is actually produced by a lot of other mines that produce metal so a lot of these mines were closed down limiting the supply and there's also been roughly known those exact figure but it's looking like about a 60 to 65 percent increase in demand on coinage so the one ounce coins that we're talking about there's been a massive demand in these coins at a time when mining output is down quite heavily which means that there isn't much supply available and yet there's a higher demand industry has also just opened up again so the industry's opened up ready to start doing business and a lot of these companies especially electronics and and other industry they need silver so they use silver day in day out to manufacture their products so you can see where this is going but i think the main indicator the main point that's going to drive silver up quite dramatically over the next six months a year maybe two years could even be three years the reason i'm uncertain on on when it will go up and and and by what amount is because there's just too much uncertainty in this market this is not like the oa crisis there's stimulus being printed constantly given out and now we're talking about another round that's going to pass probably any day now of stimulus we don't know exactly how much it's going to be but i'm pretty sure there's going to be a trillion um at the end of that number it's going to be a trillion or more this is way more than what was done in the last crisis so we're seeing more qe which again stands for quantitative easing so all of this new currency that's being created goes into the monetary supply and what this does is it drives up the price of things like stocks and shares like housing but in my opinion i don't think that that will happen in this crisis not initially anyway or or let me put it this way it may do that initially but there will be a drop you can't keep printing into infinity it's just not possible without there being a knock-on effect later on so does that mean then that house price is going to crash and the stock market's going to crash straight away well yes they could but at the same time it could be that they go up they inflate in value before there's a crash it's very hard to know exactly what's going to happen but i'm pretty sure on my investments and again this is just what i'm doing i'm not advising that you do this this is you know it's up to you to make your own financial decisions but what i'm saying is this is my investment strategy i've been pretty accurate over the last couple of years i don't think i've made any mistakes on my investments in the last couple of years or my predictions so based on that that's why i went in so heavily on silver and why i believe that silva is a big opportunity right now but i think if you leave it too late to get into silver you know if we're you know a spot price of 22.65 cents right now if it goes much past say 25 30 that wouldn't be a time that i'd be buying because there's a massive premium on it anyway and you could be buying um on the upward trend uh trying to you know time the peak which is a really really bad move so that's why i've bought over the last five years when prices have been very low they've been historically low prices in terms of the silver versus dollar and other the variables we won't go into on this video and that's why i will be selling my silver uh fairly soon once we see coin prices so not necessarily spot price but coin price of let's say forty dollars per coin forty five dollars maybe i'll probably move about twenty percent to thirty percent of the silver holdings i've got and when we see fifty dollars um coins on the market 50 to 60 coins that's when i'll you know sell on the majority of my portfolio i'll probably hold 10 to 20 percent left over just in case there is a big spike but i'm not really looking to you know clean up from this as long as i i get 80 of my my holdings sold and i make you know at least 100 to 200 percent on on them on the prices i've been buying because remember i've been buying these incredibly incredibly low prices for my silver so i'm going to make a lot of money when i sell so that would be my selling point my maximum selling point of about 50 when i see coins going on the market for about 50 dollars maybe 60 but i'll probably start moving at 50 and um yes prices could go much much higher we could see a 50 spot we could see some people say a hundred dollar spot uh it's possible i don't i don't know if that's going to happen i'm really not sure so that's my strategy so you know exactly what i'm going to be doing my silver i will be moving it once i see coins on the market for 50 to 60 well guys thank you so much for watching today i hope you enjoyed the analysis and looking at my prediction and what i think will happen to silva in the very near future i hope you've clicked the like button to help out the channel and i hope you subscribed i'd love to have you on board with all the other subscribers with this community this is a no-nonsense community we only talk about finance investing we put some fun videos in from time to time we do a lot of q a we do a lot of fantastic stuff on this channel and i'd really love to have you on board all right take care until next time see you soon

Channel: Neil McCoy-Ward

Views: 61,306

Rating: 4.9180703 out of 5

Keywords: silver price, Silver, neil mccoy ward, silver coins, silver investing, physical silver, should i be buying silver right now, buy silver, silver stacking, buying silver, investing in silver, silver etf vs physical, silver etf, bullion, precious metals, silver news, silver price forecast, prepper, usa, 2020, silver price manipulation, gold silver ratio explained, vault storage, finance, silver bullion, gold and silver, breakout, silver prediction, eagle, maple, 1oz, monster box, Coin

Id: 5YVqf4C7wSw

Length: 21min 8sec (1268 seconds)

Published: Fri Jul 24 2020