Patrick Karim: Next Steps for Silver are $27 and $58, Trade of a Lifetime

[Music] welcome back to palisade radio i'm your host tom bogerovich and joining me today is returning guest patrick karim from badcharts.com he's a proprietary capital manager and chart trader how are you today patrick hi tom i'm great thanks for having me back great to have you back i wanted to get your take on how your emotional management has been how has it fared after uh breaking through 1800 and uh the all-important 18 um mark in silver well it's uh for gold it's kind of weird because since i've been tracking it so so closely for a while like since we had the 1350 breakout the 1400 and it's like it's almost too hard to believe like we're already 1800 a lot of wall of worries a lot of uh it's gonna stop or it's like a 2011 where uh it's we're not ready and when all those words are there they're kind of cool because they kind of keep you you're emotional in check right you want to hear them you don't want to be like the horse there with them those two things he has on the side of his eyes right blinders yeah the blinders you don't you don't want that and it's very sometimes i wish i had some blinders and just have a and think it's going to go the moon and it's kind of weird because i saw today like a lot of people like almost like celebrating 1800 but sometimes the charts are very still very constructive and we're probably going to go through some charts that i could show you there that were were not extended yet to the point to worry but it's sometimes i feel like we're close like i'm very close to the like the complex the precious metals complex so when we have like this um we get that want to try to get that sentiment that scent that i'd like to see are we uh is everybody too bullish on gold uh everything i look around me yeah it looks everybody oh man gold uh it's gonna go up i'm all in but then i like i did a poll on twitter and then i said where do you think it's gonna best perform the next six months is it gonna be nasdaq gold and silver and silver i think it came in first around 50 54 then gold at 30 and then nasdaq at 15 or 20. and some people were commenting saying pat uh i think i should sell tomorrow like but that's because i it's like people that are that like gold that have been following me that have been answering those uh that poll but if we'd have that poll let's say msnbc would have that poll and say what would you think if i'd see the the crowd say oh gold's gonna outperform nasdaq over the next six months then i probably start to get worried you know it's like a large scale a real crowd effect you know people that are too long too many people are long ball for gold so we're not there yet but it's always fun seeing the price going up i'm never going to complain seeing that i've had targets way back at the beginning we've had measured moves we had arcs like northstar's arcs everything was going to these levels a lot of people are looking at important monthly defined quarterly defined levels around that 1700 1800 level so we're there now and um people are expecting now it's going to be like a crunch like decision time are we pulling back from here are we going back above we're about at that region right and uh still very constructive i think uh for gold and uh for silver yeah 18 silver is a really really wild specimen because i've had it's like hard to believe that silver still at this price like when i turned from gold after the march uh breakdown and then the gold to silver ratio peaked and started going down and then you saw like this might be the time for silver and when you look at the chart gold was already up i think at 1700 pullback i think maybe to i forget where 1450 or something like that but silver it went down really low and it came back nice but we're still pretty much close to the base it's a eight or six year base around fourteen dollars monthly defined base we're not that far off so the risk is very low for silver it could dip below but you have a lot of room especially that gold paved the way through the gold miners paved the way through and the whole complex as a whole is really starting to drive upwards um i was really really happy to see gold silver like stick closed especially at least one day above 18 18 uh dollars and hopefully the week we're going to close uh we're going to stay above and we're not going to retrace because we've been burnt so many times and i guess that's like uh for the every time for the past six months that we've tried to go over these levels we've been refuted refuted refuted and a lot of people are giving up and but once all those sellers are gone and the chart says it's time to go up and we could have a nice and nice ride up guys so that's pretty much how i feel on silver i nobody's bullish on silver maybe i'm like i'm super bullish silver but um i haven't like i said if i s until i hear my my dad saying hey where could i get a gold uh i'll start to worry and i'll worry even more if he tells me hey i want silver it's time to get sober but until then i think uh we're pretty good the technicals are not too stretched and i think it's gold time for silver gold might stall where it is a little bit and let that gsr right gold silver ratio for it to go down you need gold to keep you could keep going up but if it stalls a little bit and goes up slowly but silver starts out performing we have that trend and that goal silver ratio that wants to go down and i think that's the place where we should be right now they're in silver yeah it's funny patrick as you and i were speaking about before the call having yourself in an echo chamber isn't really ever valuable and i think that's part of my goal on the show is to bring differing opinions on to to try and either confirm or or tear down our opinions and how we're looking at the market and to try and really construct a an ironclad way forward for our listeners and really appreciate having experts like you on to be able to get that information from so let's turn a little bit to one of your charts here it's the dow jones industrial average versus the silver futures tell us a little bit about why you mapped the dow versus silver and what this chart actually shows us sure well i just started uh often we like oh u.s equities have been kicking uh gold and silver's bad for a while and but then uh the first chart i did it's not this one it was i did the dao versus gold and then i saw hey wow look at that the dial actually peaked versus it priced in gold all the way back in 1999. okay but what about silver and what i like to do to fit the maximum amount of information and remove noise always revert to my pnf chart so it's only when there's important price movement reversals that has a new column so if you look at the timeline at the bottom you'll see that it's all over the place sometimes for an inch it's two years and time for an inch could be eight years but you get really the price action movement and the trend lines are very very clear uh silver um also uh outperformed the dao has been underperforming silver since 2001 and it's been what we've been having now since the 2011 was actually a bear market rally for that ratio so that means the ratio is going back up um the dials are performing silver but that's within a bigger bear market that actually started in the late in the early 2000s and right right right now one two three four important tests on the pnf chart that line i made a big circle and that was taken probably before before price action of silver uh exploded recently and that's an important trend line so i think if that breaks we have those important moving averages they're going to start crossing over doing a bearish cross those two technicals are very very strong signal that we're resuming silver outperforming the dial so it's not just the gold it's actually silver inflows of capital going in silver versus the dow and there's a clear peak that the bear market rally for that um ratio peaked in the 2018 and fall of 2018 even for silver so often now people silver underperforming it doesn't look super duper on a chart maybe by itself with that big base and it's still lagging gold but versus the dao it's a it's actually performing very very well and to give another representation i added a histogram with the three the 36 uh sma and you see right now the dial has been losing steam uh it was way above its moving average and now less and less and it's about to go negative that means it's going to go below its moving average so reverse is silver and that's just the beginning for me for silver uh outperforming or at least doing as good as the dial and outperforming steam rolling eventually uh whatever uh isn't is required maybe as a money printing to keep the dial inflated and that's i believe it's going to drive silver price up smelling that inflation and until we get eventually where silver bottoms out versus the dow and also for those fans of macd you can see a big big paradigm shift a crossing of those wires those msad wires really crossing over and heading downwards so there's a lot of weight in that chart for inflows of silver versus the dow that was very telling for me like i did not expect that and just adds to when i saw that i said okay silver as soon as it uh breaks out it's gonna break out violently because i've seen also if you could go back to 2002 when it broke down from that important trend line it was violent it was silver really outperforming uh the the dow finally so i'm expecting that type of drop right here and we're right on that trend line uh it's just beautiful uh patrick can you just uh tell us what pnf stands for on that channel okay uh sorry i put pnf is for those not it's an old old-school type of charting called the pointed figure i wish i remembered the name of the person that actually came up with it and it's just a point figure chart so it's x's and o's and when there's a reversal of a certain amount of price action it adds a new column and then it goes in the direction of that reversal and then when there's enough price action that the warrants a reversal it adds a new column then you have o's so the o's go down and the x's go up and it just does that when there's enough price action so let's say the price action just fluctuates between a certain range for 10 years then you'll just have one column for those 10 years until there's a sufficient price action that uh that the warrants there that knew a new column of o's going down perfect and just a reminder to our listeners we have these charts up on the youtube video if you're just listening to this on audio so the next chart that we can talk about here is the junior miners daily chart and you have on the right side on the vertical axis what you call volume defined vacuum so tell us a little bit about what that indicator kind of shows us and what we're seeing on this chart sometimes i fall in the in these rabbit holes there i'm not quite sure what i'm falling into so then i started experimenting and seeing observing um what that new indicator tells me about the chart within that chart and then after that i i try i span it off to other charts so right now that the what you see on the right is volume profiling so volume profiling is the every time there's a transaction a buy in a cell at a certain price it adds to that um that histogram on the on on the right so it's not volume over time it's a volume over a certain price and it's like i see that as a magnet pull an important price action fair value where the market says okay that's a pretty good price well it's like a magnetic pole attracting little ferrite pieces and then it just glues it glues together until you have a nice nice peak and that's where the consolidation area happens and once it's overloaded it just lets go of those little particles which are buys and sells and then the price action just moves up it vacuums and slides down whichever direction it took and right now for the silver miners it's actually sliding down if you could uh down that peak so the peak was around at 11 25 price action now the price action is above and we're sliding down less and less transactions less and less resistance less and less buyers that buy higher up that want to sell creating some resistance so for me that's like super super bullish and since you see on the right axis there's no volume to find resistance for this period of time until 15 dollars the only thing that could stop it is hitting some new uh volume defined resistance that we can't see yet so eventually when there's important areas where people say okay you've moved uh far enough uh you've stretched enough far away from your moving average or i think the fundamentals justify that the price actions stop then volume will start accumulating for certain price action and then that's what we we see as a range or a flag and that's just healthy stuff until then the market decides okay do we go back down or we continue with the prevailing trend so that's where i look at the bottom so also you use distance from moving average and i call that the distance from moving average resistance so you could look at a chart and you want to know when can i sell i want to sell and i want to try to sell close to the top i don't want to sell into fear i want selling to greed well all you have to do is look at a chart how ba previously so let's say uh on previous moves it stalled when it was let's say 10 20 or let's say 20 away from its 50-day moving average and then the market's okay you're stretched enough it's time for consolidation next time we have a nice uh thrust up with the weight of evidence okay i have some targets i want to see my upward targets then you could think okay i could at least get to that previously known distance from that moving average that's talk likes to be stretched it's volatile i'll let it run i don't want to sell too early but when it's stretched to what it's previously been known to revert back consolidate or pull back i want to take some profits so that's one of the tools i'm using and right now i was just on that chart arbitrarily i put a at 42 distance away from the moving average which is a previously known resistance and it brings me to 15 but the longer it would take to get to uh that the price action moves up that actually is going to slide up so that 15 over time is going to be 16 17 18 19 uh 20 dollars until we stretch that that amount from the moving average right because the moving average it keeps going up and up so whenever distance from moving average you add on to that you're adding it on from a higher entry point so it's kind of like a sliding scale as it progresses yes it's a yeah so it's pretty dynamic it's a lot i use some swing rules and measure moves i know for the silver junior miners we just completed the head and shoulders inverted head and shoulders pattern which has a measured move to 20 dollars but if you want to be more flexible maybe this this target right here is going to is going to end up at the same target as the measure move from that invert the head and shoulders so different systems different frameworks eventually the price action the targets have a tendency to end up pretty much at the same region where it's a good spot there to take in some profits but from here even if it exploded uh crazy overnight or in the next few days i have a minimum 15 target before i would consider taking profits for the silver junior miners and that's for sil right s-i-l-j okay sorry silver junior miners okay uh as you were talking about the distance from moving average um your next chart that we have is spot silver's daily chart um and you have right on the bottom there the distance from the 50-day moving average so uh you also have a price target on here of 20 and 50 cents um is that target still achievable do you think uh yes for sure so this is a pretty recent target uh chart i did and always trying to see where could i hit my resistance where because when the price section is at 20 i know we're all gonna be europhoric we'll be checking our our broker's account uh look at my my my net gains we're all going to be patting each other on each other's and like you said we're going to be in an ecosystem all of us and my followers myself they're following me because i have some bullet juice on silver sometimes not for the same reason they have it some people it's for like philosophical reasons or they're pro gold because they're anti establishment or whatnot but it's gonna be very dangerous to be able to sell here at twenty dollars i'm probably gonna say ah pat why don't we go to 55 right away we could stretch it somewhere i know because i've been trapped i've done that to myself and uh i rolled back some stocks all the way back to entry point and then you give up and then it goes back up and then it's just like what am i doing in in this trading field i'll just stick to my regular day job but so that's why i try to come up with these tools to um and try to expand them so you see silver like from september uh distance from moving average about 17 where it stalls so it really and there's probably a lot of a lot of fomo right there when we're when the price action can be 17 away from the this 50-day moving average a lot of greed and that's when us with our tools of our technical analysis we say okay i'm going to take some off the table take some off whatever it is 50 100 percent you want to leave a little bit but you know okay this you're increasing your probabilities of hitting a stop and we know also that 20 if i would stretch out to a monthly chart that's some important monthly defined resistance from those 2016 highs so that 20 dollars at 20 50 21 is a very significant signific significant level for silver just like 1350 or 1400 was for gold so that's silver catching up that's just what gold did back in june of 2019 silver is going to get all the way up here so that's a good way to take profits uh into um using that distance that elasticity defined by the distance from the 50 moving average and you could also see while i'm profiling right i'm leaving it pretty much on all my charts right now because it helps as a visual cue unit if i misread the patterns you would clearly clearly see that we're past the apex of that uh that peak volume that was uh just under 18 at 17.75 we're above it and we're really sliding down and we see there's not much volume resisting there's not a lot of buyers that want to sell until we start hitting that 1925 1950. so that could be a con little congestion area we're going to find out when we get there if we start attracting more and more consolidation so that small volume node could get a little bit bigger so that's also an area where we could expect some resistance or a pullback but uh until we reach that distance from the 50-day moving average i'm not gonna sell all of my position um because i want to let it run and it's not letting it run just based on the i think silver's going to the moon it's letting it run based on previous behavior and that's the beauty of using a technical analysis and looking back at the history it's not going to get there in the same exact pattern it did previously but you get a behavior of when sellers are going to jump on board human emotions right because it's always humans emotions they buy and sell based on emotions so for silver that's the type of stretch you need for really that fomo to kick in and then we run out of steam there so let's just make that rule a little more explicit and simple patrick when we get close to the 50-day moving average um that's when we're going to sell no when we get the 17.8 percent away from the 50-day moving average so we'll be way above it so we're going to be selling into um greed into uh fomo so the moving average is going to be below us but we're going to be stretched just like there's a section in may where you see all those white candles and we really exploded away from the 50-day moving average the charge kind of gonna look like that it's gonna look like a parabolic uh move so it's when we're above so when we're so far away from the 50-day moving average which is below us that's when it's going to be time to take some off the table perfect well let's move on to there's a really interesting chart uh the big cup and handle formation and you have an upper price target on silver's yearly log masterpiece so let's talk a little bit about that yeah this is the ultimate noise reduction yearly candles you don't have to do them often because they we only add a candle every year but when you do it with silver all every time like i i think we've talked about this um previously people uh silver's peaks is 45 in the 80s or 50 in the 2011 but i always draw my trend lines on closes so if i look at the clothes and the wicks i see them as noise that's the noise from monthly candles from weekly candles we have a clear clear neckline at 31 dollars and there's kind of like a rule that usually the entry the angle of entry into a um symmetrical arc is often the same angle of exit and right now and this chart was done a little while back so now the silver price is actually 1826 okay just a little bit higher than that we could actually this year we could get pretty pretty close to that 31 and we would still be respecting that entry of uh that entry of descent that we had going inside that is the the handle part of that huge huge cup you could kind of see it also look on the huge cup we had that uh 1979 peak or 80 and then it goes down violently then bases and it didn't go up slowly it went up pretty much violently like a mirror effect on the other side and that's what we're expecting here that's what happened with the gold chart that's what happened with the gold miners look at those charts up we're expecting a beautiful and a lot of people love precious metals complex for the the beauty the how the charts respect technical analysis they're not all over the place they're very harmonious and they respect those classical charting patterns very well and uh we could see we actually had a breakout in gold and silver last year confirmed above uh it's hard to tell right here maybe 17 and right now all we had in march was just wick just noise and if you look at the smart time frames your trader yeah that's violent you'll you'll get a you'll get shakened out but for those holders about right that are position sized correctly for them that was actually a buying opportunity which is probably incredibly hard to do bravo for anybody who's able to buy at those 2000 at the march madness bottoms for silver i wasn't able to buy at the exact bottom because it's almost impossible to do super hard except those guys who really know who have conviction who know where this is going we've been looking at the charts with live previous the bull and bear markets so i'm still learning there but we see that that was one of the greatest buying opportunities probably ever for for silver and that's all the up room all the way to 31. once we're at 31 then we'll have to see it could be a wick above like that 2011 wick that really spikes up that goes above only to close below that could happen maybe in 2021 but eventually the final target is a at least 58 minimum target it kind of fits with some of my other techniques i use there to get some measure moves uh for for silver around 60 65 so that's a conservative target there that we should be reaching for silver but it's very volatile it could peak spike upwards during an intra year above 31 but definitely possible i believe for not this if not this year for at least early next year that we should be hitting a 31 for for silver guys awesome and as uh as ronnie stofferly says let's leave the bottom picking to the proctologists right oh god nice what kind of price target could or what kind of timing uh are we looking at for that 58 to 65 dollar target um it's it's too hard i think to uh to tell there's a there's some cycle analysis uh out there that um the market for silver i don't know if i won't have it's too hard to tell honestly it's a measured move but i i'd rather get uh to that 31 first see how it behaves if we close above the 31 convince the heavier close convincingly above 31 then we we could have a do a measured move and look at the angle of uh uh draw some new trend lines see where we're at but for for that 58 it's uh it's it's hard to tell uh from where we are right now perfect our last chart that we're going to look at here is the silver futures monthly log chart what if it is actually already broken out tell us where we are right now and the the volume and basically the the different things we're looking at on this chart sure okay so this is kind of a a lot of people looking at silver spot price which has um because of contango and discount there's like often a premium on the silver futures versus spot so the chart is not always the same and if you look at the futures um the way i drew i had a descending trend line there that started in 2000 mid 2013 going the way down and the way i drew it i actually had a confirmed breakout in may june july and may so we had a solid maribuzu candle closing about horizon closing above a horizontal breakout line i think at 17 75 had a descending multi multi-year trend line that we closed above we closed above peak volume so if i could come back to my volume profiling the the most of the volume was around 17 so for for those watching this on youtube there's a huge huge uh peak of volume with uh going down in valleys on each side that was at 17 that's huge huge um monthly if we're above it it becomes monthly defined support and that is an important important bottom and we're above that we're starting to slide down and i put a little tag because it's kind of hard to see and the price action when i did this chart for silver was around 18 21 and we're already starting to slide down and i i was looking at that chart and i said pat we're already broken out the june candle we had a week below that breakout line but look we closed above and right now we're just consolidating above that super duper important uh breakout line we're testing it and we're sliding down that volume vacuum right here until we find the next volume node which is around that 1950 and if we come back if we came back to that first chart then you would see that the price action actually bounced off that where i thought the breakout line was and we're actually heading upwards uh towards that uh 19 1950 to test that volume node right there and after that if you have a little bit of imagination then you see there's a huge valley with barely any volume and that's going to create a section a vacuum all the way back to the next volume node which is around 27 29 dollars i did a post recently and i said guys all the hard work has already been done silver has already done homework it's already decided that it's starting to slide down uh upwards the whole pressure smells complex the weight of evidence everything's going upwards and we're right there we're going to see this thing fly i don't want to be maybe too too optimistic maybe i'm in too much of my ecosystem but based on this chart and my volume profiling as we've seen in other charts there's a vacuum actually that's going to silver is going to move very very fast to that 27 29 level once we break above at the 19 that 20 dollar level so we've got maybe a little bit consolidations once we're there um since we'll be away from that 50 day too high above that 50-day moving average where we're going to have to it might consolidate a little bit but once we're past that last hump it's going to be uh everybody's going to be on the sure of missing out on the silver train right there then you'll get those robin hood guys that probably want to jump on there when it's close to the that resistance there at 29 where we should be starting to consider to sell and that'll be one of the warning signs there and also i overlaid the bollinger band on that chart and also there was some talk okay how do i know if i'm too stretched so always try to find techniques to uh to see if you really stretch and you're doing the improbable well silver rarely has it had a severe consolidation there if it didn't close out of those bollinger bands that little uh beige with that black outline and right now we're really within it so the there's no price stretched according to the bollinger bands we're not in we don't have a peak a candle outside of it like in 2011 or in 2016 where we had some consolidation important consolidation once we're out of those bollinger bands we're really within it so it's really really nice and coiled and ready to go up we know the gold silver ratio is starting to go down it's uh following the vix that is also going down it's following the dxy which is also going down so when you add all those pieces without knowing exactly why the charts are beating that way the whole um weight of evidence is really supporting silver is going to go for that 20 and once it pass that 20 we're going to vacuum up to 27 and if you go back to that yearly chart then you would also see that's the target for the next 12 months hitting that uh at 31 target there on the on that you really charge for silver awesome patrick um i think that was a a pretty good episode on all things silver let's say um i know last time everybody really enjoyed um your book recommendations do you have any new ones to suggest okay the book i could recommend which uh i didn't mention last time because i believe that everybody maybe they knew it it's the edwards and mcgee technical analysis of stock trans this is like known as the bible of uh classical charting so if anybody didn't never wrote read the john mcgee and robert edwards book of technical masses of stock trends that's a bible to keep in handy there on your side table if you ever want to reference how the pattern is how it's built it's the prerequisites it's a it's a staple in any technical analysis uh traders uh library perfect we can find you at badcharts.com and at bad charts on twitter right it had bad charts so one on twitter somebody stole it before me so uh twitter bad charts one that's where you could find me and uh don't hesitate to ask me ask me questions or have a contra view there i welcome it anything to keep me in check there and uh prevent me from uh drinking too much opium right now patrick well we really appreciate your time today thank you thank you sir this podcast is for general informational purposes only nothing on this podcast should be taken as investment advice guests on this show are not compensated for their appearance listeners are urged to educate themselves and make their own decisions do not base any investment decisions on the information contained to view our full disclaimer please visit our website [Music] i think you understand the junior mining sector and you think that the participants in the mining sector junior mining sector are good people and kind people hit the bid how violent that term could be it actually could be quite violent it could be a rip your face off uh uranium rally and the world is always going to need raw materials it's going to be copper and gold and nickel and so forth totally destabilized hey hey troll did you hear what's going on

Channel: Palisades Gold Radio

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Keywords: Palisade Radio, Collin Kettell, buy, sell, invest, gold, silver, precious metals investment, QE, QE4, QE5, Stock, Market Crash, low, high, best, worst, trump, central, banks, freedom, bitcoin, blockchain, uranium, potash, expert, alpha, beta, fortune, billionaire, ounce, pound, mining, energy, independence, freefall, rise, fall, outlook, private placement, warrant, decline, increase, value, price, Monthly Report, Update, millionaire

Id: CGJ6rzLHuyA

Length: 34min 32sec (2072 seconds)

Published: Thu Jul 09 2020