Global Citizen: Hans Rosling at The University of Oslo: "Fact Based World View"

so today I would just say it's a great day because this is the first lecture in the series called global citizen and of course you're all global citizens and that's one of the things that we would like to discuss with you why are we global citizens and what should we do about it the University of Oslo has as one of its slogans global presence and global responsibility and this slogan says everything as soon as we recognize that we are part of a larger community that we are global citizens with it follows a sense of responsibility but we need to know what are we responsible for we need facts we need knowledge and this we will hear more about later today by Hans Rosling I'm Petrossian and the rector of the university of oslo and i am in gabbatha i'm at the pro rector of the university Wessel and i should tell you that it's extremely rare isn't it that we have this dual presence like today mm do you sell them well you said it you said it okay we shall keep on because Hans Rosling is what brought you here today and very soon he will show you all why he is called the champion the world champion of science communication the world champion of science communication are we humans endowed with an imagination that is powerful enough to regard the whole world as one community isn't that a key question Inga mmm-hmm yes older people perhaps have discussed the same thing well maybe I can cite the Barack Obama who in a lecture in 2008 said the following words we have drifted apart and forgotten our shared destiny but the borders of global citizenship continues to bind us together so I would just say few words how do we encourage critical thinking ethical discussions that are scientifically based what are the facts we should rely on what questions and dilemmas are relevant and as rector has already said a person who are especially well prepared to answer these questions and especially brilliant in making us imagine the world through facts and figures and make us reflect on the use of facts and lack of knowledge is Hans Rosling a world-renowned Swedish professor who will kick off the lecture series global citizen with his talk fact-based worldview the floor is yours it's always a thrill to come to Norway no and I really really appreciate the initiative by the University and I'm touched by the turnout of people here can you recognize this meeting 50th November 2008 the date when the Second World War ended the Second World War created the modern world it created the institutions of the modern world it created the concept of the modern world and it ended that period this day and do you recognize the people here on the photo it is actually I mean this is if summit of financial market bah-bah-bah but is g20 is the g20 group and obviously this is the host George W Bush and I'm going to honor him it's very rarely that Swedish public health professor honor George W Bush but this will happen tonight here because it did some good things and this was one because he had a problem dear mom brother and the financial market had gone into the drain Wall Street caused the global financial crisis it was not the banana republics or Argentina or Thailand or anything it was there on Manhattan it was made and he needed tax money so he looked for tax money he just had the business court and nothing more during the good years he lowered the taxes so when the crisis came here nothing he lost his friends the g-seven they had nothing so he had to invite g20 and that was quite it's quite interesting out there standing when you have a diplomatic meeting at this level you know these discussions four days who is going to stand where on the photo and I think this photo will be in the history books of your children it will be there so it's very interesting to see that is what he had to do together this meeting he had to do something very painful for a Republican president he had to phone a Latino trade union leader in Latin America it's very painful and he had to be polite and he had to say president Lula da Silva does Brazil have any money and Lula responded yes we have and then came the second question can you lend us some of your money and Lula said yes but then we want to be in the board of the International Monetary Fund anything and he has come with the money etc so he's standing here so Luna got the position next to him here you know Luna standing it and it's so interesting can you see that Bush is sort of living through he likes Lula he likes Luna he's a socialist and he like because on the other side this tide and the Communists the entire you know first secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and next to him the dictator monarch or Saudi Arabia so he's here with a socialist or communist and a Muslim and look at Sarkozy standing here how come that France is between a Muslim and a Buddhist is that it's very strange you know who they said they are very proud can you see how proud they are abroad the Orient this air Dogen from Turkey also being very proud Singh from India you know strauss-kahn is over there you know they left that way that what happened here was that the richest country if we take away smokers the richest country started to borrow money from the less rich and they had been doing it from China for a long time but now it was an emergency situation when normally the rich country would borrow to Argentina Atlanta Indonesia when they messed up now it was the other one United States of America become the Banana Republic who couldn't keep the money nor this interesting when doing I came back he said they were polite it was interviewed when he came here they were polite but you see we had to rethink also because we used to blame everything bad on us and on UK but now they accept they messed it up and they needed us and we had to help them and now we can't just listen to their lessons we have to think for ourselves and we have to take responsibility for the world economy in the world situation this is a very new situation and you know people who want to lend money they become very polite very polite I remember I spoke to the Minister of Finance of united arab emirate he said that George Brown was very polite when it came to Abu Dhabi wanted to borrow money you know how is your family how is your children it was a completely new relationship in the world but it also scared in power got very scared Abdullah gets very scared it was a joint economy the world is we are all global citizens if not by heart we are it by water the economy is linked to such total they were scared they had this meeting so what does more we have to do it well the interesting thing is that Norway gives aid to Brazil Oh point 13 billion US dollar per year its interested Norway is giving money to the one who hence money to Bush and I don't context plane why and I know it's called reinforced billion and so on but you should think about this you should discuss what is this you know and you see if someone can lend the money to Bush 30 billion per year the last five years thirty new fresh billion every year that's from Brazil and and and why you give money to them I was kindly invited to government in Norway very kindly I had one and I asked your Prime Minister why don't you send the money directly to Washington to avoid you cut the transaction cost you know lean economy you know and then he he would cut off you know only borrow twenty nine point eighty seven you know it could reduce it by that now it's a new situation and our institutions our concept our way of acting doesn't fit the reality because those very very strong institution we built off to the second me the global citizens all we built the United Nations you know we try to run the world in this way they don't seems to work really well any longer so what we are trying to do here is to look how much have you catched up on the changes we have Gabriela which is here with me from Gapminder foundation we have actually left the University and we run an independent foundation gapminder.org on the net and and we have an idea that we want if it's allowed in the universe is play casino the world is taking a lot of risk you know rich people who I can't be so we wanted to put the following question to you length of life 40 years 60 years 80 years healthy population sick population size of family two children four children 16 large families small families babies born some may have died by babies born per woman in 1970 Peru you know Peru quite big country you know having a mixed mixed European your origin and First Nation people Indians from from America's they had 1970 50 years life expectancy and they had six children Catholic country Norway was down here where is Peru today how many children per woman in this Catholic country in Latin America and how long they live place your bets can I have a bet here who would like to bet on Peru for babies here a for baby Braithwaite for babies you have to say how long do people live 65 for babies you put it up there we let it be there keep it to keep it there keep it there keep it there keep it there this is the bet huh this is the bet and then we we look what happens what happens here now no more bets here we go you see Peru is progressing they are living better and better and they are vaccinating they start to get fewer children they don't care about the Pope they take the condom they take the pill they go on they approach Norway's position and they come down here 70 they live now and they hit there they are like Norway 1970 and they have good data on this not registered data but surveys done to secure this that means that the bet on 60 + 4 is 88 it's only about 25 years of your time we take another country will take another country will take Tanzania I'll take Tanzania I go back I go back here to 2 19 1970 again 10 years after independence Tanzania was there well you know East Africa about 30 40 million people in Tanzania have had peace first a socialist government and a little multi-party but really no big resources of anything mixed religions where are they today can I get the bet on Tanzania directly bet on Tanzania yes oh yes oh yeah you can come consult since you're together you can consult yes vvvv oh the objective is to consult you here have a get three children three children and how long do they live sixty sixty and three children you keep it there here we go here we go here we go three we have the bet on three and we have this that's very good you see they are improving their literacy stores they're building this is the HIV the tragic HIV but their heart passing HIV is going the right way in Tanzania and now they are moving but they only come to them so you underestimated Peru and you overestimate the Tanzania so Tanzania you're like think there are twenty years ahead of where they are so let's take we take let's go for the Muslims let's go for the Muslim we go to 1970 and we take the red gnome cut the Islamic Republic of Iran Oh 1972 really really not yet Islamic that was under the Shah six and a half child fifty-three years place your bed who would like back row somewhere up there how many children in Iran - and a lot do they live seventy four seventy four and two children keep it there huh they are moving I forgot to put the tracks I can put the tracks there Harry Ron is coming the result of the revolution and down they go and they get less children per woman than Norway and uh applaud for the back row you can come and talk with a rake the roster were to become assistant in the course someone obviously knew it's quite it's quite interesting isn't it very few people are aware of this you know so so this was the war and and the revolution it's compulsory to pause the test in family planning to be allowed to marry in Iran abortion has been legal and then not legal any longer but it's being done and and it's it's there is full access to family planning she a Muslim campus is much less problem with family planning than Christian countries 1961 the world was like this give me that's right give me this we really had developing countries up here all large families and short lives and then down here we had the Western world of the developer they were too you can see from the back row the patent is very clear very few in between very very few in between who are they these in-betweens here Hong Kong and Cuba if you want to see if Cuba has been successful you compare with Hong Kong because this was the year of the revolution in Cuba you don't compare Cuba with these countries because Cuba was never part of that it was a very special history historical background in Cuba and then they've been successful but they didn't move from here to down there but look at what has happened with the whole world countries get healthier and healthier come to a certain and then it drops they can be Catholics Muslims communist Democratic doesn't matter you know because in the bedroom there are other rules you and it's quite interesting that you see it's down here and you will see even Bangladesh being so successful India here Pakistan here Afghanistan up there can you see the clear limit between the developing world and the developed countries no it's taxonomy there is no difference they're all down here and you said yes lately because the one child policy in China people attribute too much to communism yes Moulton gave literacy some health and electricity to people but there's one point six children per woman in China by the communist rule in Hong Kong where there was no one child policy there there is one bad performance a this is what I said director you have too much discussion too much ideology about the world you have to start by the fact you can't discuss what is the course how cruel is one-child policy do they follow it or not if you don't know why well there is no one child policy it's let's try one is one child per woman Japan is is 1.3 and why is it one child per woman in Hong Kong I think I found the solution not in statistic but at a dinner I lectured at the Bank conference in Hong Kong and got at the dinner and I sat next to a young very successful banker she was less than 40 years old and I understood from our conversation that she didn't have children and she was not married and she lived single so we got friendly so I asked her you know what the desert not as a proposal because I'm a married man but just really interest you know don't you think about children it's good when you grow old you can start to discuss these sort of things with young women again don't you think yes she said I think about children every day it's the idea of a husband I can't stand this means it seems the last thing to come with progress and modernization is gender equity gender equity doesn't come in some automatic way with literacy or with economy or new but it's a fight of its own and educated young women in Asia in from Japan all the way to Singapore if they marry they in fact cannot divorce it will be severe stigma if a divorce and that means they had to be with that person forever and and they don't marry yes the men they marry their parents in the world and expect to take care of them you know and they just don't like it so you have a very high proportion of young educated women that doesn't marry that's why we have a very fast drop on number of children you see the some in the upper quinta the most educated in Vietnam the same thing the most educated in Thailand the same thing it's very very interesting that we have the lowest number of children here whereas Switzerland where Italy is there on Spain where do we have Sweden here Sweden is in this regard relatively success 1.93 because we have a lot of transfer of money if you divorce you have the same economy you have in Norway the number of children per woman is climbing in Norway at best so this is this is more or less the situation we are so this has changed a lot and what has been changed with the whole population in the world because when we are concerned about the environment we think about this when I was born 1948 there was less than 1 billion children in the world and then the number of children that 0 to 15 years old increased to almost 2 billions and what has happened since in this mid in this century is the number of children continuing to increase or is it slowing down or is it stable it's stable the number of children is not projected to grow it may grow it may grow if you get the under equity in Asia and you have steel poverty remaining in Africa you will get more children if poverty gets away in Africa they get access to family plan that and gender inequity remains in Asia then we get fewer children so the good thing doesn't work for lower population my conclusion is take care of the people the population will solve itself you don't go into bedroom and tell people what to do and when to get children or children that ends up in a political mess it just seems as when the number of children's hands in the home gets more than the number of parents hands then there will be no sex and no more children that was yes it seems to work anyway you bet not two or three you know it evens out at a smaller family so we are seven billions today 1 billion live in America 1 billion live in Europe 1 billion in Africa and 1 2 3 4 in Asia the interesting to study the number of foreign students you have at the university and divided by population in their countries we said that Carradine's Institue we are so many Chinese and then I did that division and China was actually under represented because we and India also because they are the real big countries and in the next 50 years there will be 2 billion more and there will be 1 billion in Africa and 1 billion in Asia Asia will increase with 25 percent Africa will double in 40 years from now when many of you will still be working Africa will have a bigger population than Europe and the whole Americas together and this is what haha this won't happen everyone sits like this this won't happen exactly what we said about India 1960 when I went to school this won't happen now they have 1.2 billion people and they are healthier than before and and it many things go well in India but they still deep poverty and shameful inequities in India this is what our people say that I I am too post did not by selling what has happened they spin horrible poverty in India but the general thing is progress 2.6 children per woman in India 2.3 in Bangladesh 2.4 in the whole world and if I divide this into North America and South America and this into East and West Europe then you can draw a line around what used to be called the Western world it doesn't have any definition as soon as a lecture tell say Western world you raise the hand and say what do you mean with Western world as soon as I said developing countries you ask is Turkey and Iran included we must know what we talked about when we discuss the world I didn't know how much of Greece to include here and it was it seems I cut off Paulo Sicily that does a nasty joke but it really shows that we don't have a group of country which is in one way there and another group of countries there that it's more of a gradient all the time whatever we look at and this then used to be called the developing world in textbooks in seminars and everything I have invented a new term for it basically I don't want to have two types of countries I want us to have several groups but if you had two groups of countries I know what you should call this one call it what it is the world it's actually the world this is the exception this is the exception that's what Bush learned 15th of November 2008 Lula in Tao and Abdullah they were lending the money he learnt it and he hasn't started to pay back yet Obama's and pay back they continue to borrow money so the question is with this course a global citizen with this concept disappear and we will start discussing the world instead we discuss it in geographical regions and then the inequity between the countries in the region and most of all the inequity within countries that are quite big and to understand how big difference it is in education in health in writes in access to money within countries this is this is more or less how we see the world and what is it then which it may be three billion in Africa 2100 but this is where we will end on on ten billion the first population growth will be over in about 40 years then it may continue to increase slowly or start to decrease or remain the same nine to ten we will be I will show you why because first I will show you that you can trust United Nations Population it's actually study done by Nikhil Killman professor in economics here at the University ten years ago I don't if he still is here he published this study where he looked at what united nations thought of world population 1951 they thought it was 2.5 billion and they made this projection could just make a projection to 1980 1958 they said oh we were more and then they made this projection the difference here is only one census in China when matzo tune off to the piece counted the population there were more people in China than anyone had thought of how everyone thought during those wars so many would have been killed but they were really more people in China 63 they did this projection 6 to 8 they did this projection and 78 they did this projection and today we know what it was 2000 we don't know for sure what it was this year because we the last 5 to 10 years is in fact also projections so but 10 years back we know and it they said was the result respect people from medicine and economy should pay respect to demographers you know we don't know the epidemic that will come next month you know and then the economies know even less so but the mugger first candy so the whole all these discussion all these emotions about population miss the fact that we know quite well what will happen with the population and why do we know it is because we know how it works father and mother in material time or in the rainforest today yes I know that I'm boring the Hedren formative but I'm aware of it and they are unisex to fit for the future we'll get six children on average strangely some got very many children some didn't get any children some fewer on average why didn't the population grow why are there so few people in the rain forest but they have such a lot of knowledge about nature because four of them died before growing up and becoming parents themselves people don't live in ecological balance in rainforests they died in ecological patterns in rainforest but they have an enormous knowledge about the rainforest and they have the human rights and they should be respected I don't talk bad of them but I don't want naive ideas about it otherwise I have done research in the fringes of rainforests most of our my 20 years of research in Africa and one thing I never saw in the rainforest was an illegal immigrant and when Matias Klum goes to the rainforest to take photos it doesn't bring his children to work he brings a doctor in intensive care very dangers in the rainforest the dangerous place in any way it take very good photos what happened here after the start of Industrial Revolution still six children but only two died that was what started a population growth nor people from Norway and Sweden didn't emigrate to the United States because life got worse they emigrated because it got slightly better and when it was like a better the population increased and there was no more land and an increase of population was faster than the increase in economy technology and agricultural output and now we are seven billions and anything or it will continue like that no no don't we have almost reached the new balance the new balance 2.4 children per woman now Oh point 14 children dies per woman in the world we have 200 million pregnancies in the world every year 20 million said miss carriages miss fun we have 45 million abortions we have 135 million children who are born and seven million of them dies the deaths of children is very low and that's why it's one of the it's not the factor it's one of the factors that makes couples decide to have fewer children that they see that they survive it's one of the factors there's there are other things also so why will it then continue to grow if the number of children will not increase and the average length of life is already 70 years in the world why will we get 3 billion more many environmentalists tell me all we should stop at 7 billions we are exhausting the resources that's why we have developed this new educational tool here imagine that one toilet paper roll is 1 billion people then we have 2 billion children below the age of 15 2 billion in your age group 15 to 30 1 billion 30 to 45 1 billion 45 to 60 and then me 60 plus here on top this is the world population today the reason that 3 billions are missing here is not that they have died it was that 30 to 70 years ago there were fewer born because the total population were fewer but then we hit to Bill and now we won't get more children and it will not grow because we will live so much longer everyone talks about this because they are scared of they dying but it's we know what will happen at my age we know it so what will happen these ones will die the rest of you you will grow 15 years older and you will get 2 billion children and the old dies again and the rest gets 15 years older and they get 2 billion children and the old die and the rest get 15 years older two billion children voila ten billion people if you want to avoid these three billion you have to kill them it's very serious when people say we can be no more people on this planet they are proposing a new Holocaust and that should be forbidden because it's forbidden to deny the old and you should also be forbidden we have to accept that we are going to be three billion people more and it's fought so much it's just 30 percent more and it's those who are already born these ones are already born they get their children and do you want to get in there have someone in your bedroom who check that you just get one pregnancy no you don't want that and and and and this way then in the future they want to die they will grow older they become like this they will die and they will get older if you don't believe me and you have this at home you go home tonight and shake it we did the study in Sweden because we got this idea the problem is we are rightly concerned about the world we rightly have ideological views and emotional feelings about the world but we need to upgrade the facts not that we shouldn't have ideology we shouldn't have analysis proposal had discussions all this but it has to be more in fact so we have been asking the statistics Sweden have been asking Swedish population for the last 25 years what they feel about poverty in the world and how willing there are to give aid but they never check their knowledge so I was invited to put some questions these are two of the questions I asked them how many of the twenty years old in Tanzania can read this 20 40 60 or 80 percent it's a quite clear question isn't it men and women at the age of of 20 in Tanzania how many babies per woman in Bangladesh 5.54 3 or 2.5 quite big difference between it and then the Swedes answered in a completely independent survey well done this for the Swedish guess is there this was the Swedish guesses and the right answer of course is this and then I went to the zoo Wisconsin in stoker manaslu chimps and they are 25% here because if you guess by random you know this one is one chance in for you end up here so the the shrimp's out outnumber the Swedes fivefold you know and getting the right answer and what was the answer they gave it was this and this is not like like I just out of the blue this is what it was 25 years ago we have a view of the world how it was 25 years ago and that we keep discussing and then we think we can kill these three you and if we have to accept what we have in the world and and what we are planning for and the challenge we have and it's too much this if I a skeptic or not the skeptic I'm so bored on this climate sceptics and here here and there no we have to emit Sun probable it's a probability judgment we have to do and then we have to act on probability judgment but some things we know much better and at least we should know that it's like this if you see my video religions and babies you will see that the number of children the number of babies per woman is the same whether you have a Muslim country or a Christian country no difference it depends on economy and schooling but not on that you have poor companies were Christian or Muslims and they are more or less the same you are middle you have high and it's the same this is what we have today the normal family in the world once more I don't say that every family is happy going on you have one to two billion fellow human being who did live in deep poverty who fight to have food and shoes you know that we have but that's 1.5 billion out of 7 take away the richest 1 billion you still have six - one and a half four and a half billion who have food for the day who have shoes or somewhere in between and there this is the most common family building their house like this in Mexico remember this 1950s when my father and mother got the state loan and a private loan and a family owned and could build the little house which I grew up he has got this bicycle rickshaw in Bangladesh he's going to work hard with his voice so that the two daughters can go to school and get a better life than them this is more like my my grandparents how they did with my my parents you know this is this is in India where large parts of India now have two child families 2.6 is the average any some of the poorest part you still have five to six children is a per woman under educated women in the cities who work for Google in Hyderabad making Google Maps they have one child or no child you have the range within it and here you they have a small motorbike and go to the future Buddhist Catholic Muslim Hindu religion is on Sunday or Friday but it's not in the bedroom and religion can work as guidance I'm fully respectful to religions I'm not saying religion is anything bad I just say that all religion had proven that they can adapt to the interest and the best life for families there is not anyone who I put an obstacle perhaps the Catholic Church in Philippines or very resistant but on the other hand the number of children per woman in Brazil is lower than in Sweden and Norway and that's pretty Catholic country so it all depends on what sort of how that religions organization and representative act in that country during one decade then fanatic religious people they are involve religious let me go a little more detail since this is a university here I had one billion in each now each doll here is hundred millions but it's the same here fifteen fifteen to thirty thirty four to five forty-five to sixty and then this is Asia this is Africa this is America this is Europe so obviously this is me sixty plus in Europe and and and and what we have now is this twenty dollars down here which is the two billion children below 15 look there are four hundred billion children below fifteen in Africa that's after the child death so if we get to child families tonight in Africa and a decent life the population will double it will be four four four four four and you get two billion it's inevitable to get two billion in Africa it's inevitable that Africa will be as many people as America and Europe together we already know that Asia have stopped growing here if Africa will continue here that's the question but there's still very little old people in Asia and we say that populations grow old and then you think they live longer no that's not the reason they grow old if they get fewer children and the big general the big cohorts of children they grow up and become more Germany becomes an old population because they get so few children that's a reason that this happens so the old will die the rest will grow 15 years older they will get their children the old will die that grow 15 years older they get it's pretty isn't it they die and they grow oh this is my demographers are so good you know they can foresee this can you see more and more children in Africa less than destination if we get away poverty in half African countries and families and local communities and companies are successful with the help and trade with others then this may be less it may stop earlier this is inevitable this is up for discussion but if you get the under equity here perhaps you get lovely marriages with two or three children's in Asia then they just change color these kids and then they grow up and they get their children so this is the fill up in evitable fill up two and a half billion or more this one is up for discussion this is up for discussion this is the uncertainty one or two billion here population is not an issue when it comes to resources and I'm not the one standing here and saying that environment is not the problem all the contrary I think some of the environmental problems are underestimated especially the climate change people seems to be concerned about polar bears I can live without polar bear so what is it what is it we get here let me show you what is the concern there are many several different mmm please you one could discuss I'll stick to climate change and carbon dioxide emission and let me then make a statement about carbon dioxide emission it's not for sure that carbon dioxide emission is causing climate change that's not proven beyond doubt it's highly probable the extent it will happen and how it will change the climate is even more difficult to know if it if it will do so but the only thing we know absolutely sure if we want to change the energy system we have to do them before we know for sure because it tests twenty-five to fifty years and that to me is fact that's not up for discussion then you can see how do we solve it I would say my I wore a most because the walls to the sea will be so they are so costly to build it will destroy the economy of the world and and and but but what we see today is the present situation look here carbon dioxide emission per person income per person size of bubble is how much carbon dioxide the country is emitting and then they say all the Chinese bubble is bigger than the American bubble is the Chinese causing the problem the more people in China than in u.s. you have to count per capita I only hear one thing when I talk to students in Asia when I talk to scientists in Asia politicians in Asia media people activists we count per capita in this world because the rector of Oslo University have said that we are global citizens this is one little exercise looking at not a much country's emit but looking at this and then it's up here and if solar power is six well why doesn't Australia use it instead we're meeting 19 tonne per person and Norway is their 9.7 it's coming down it was some gas flaring which was right Norway's doing one thing very good and that's meticulous fast reporting of carbon dioxide emission as being very Norway's almost leading that international but it's not lowering it nobody don't laugh about that Sweden went to the discussion in Durban and hadn't reported carbon dioxide emission for the last 23 months and when we reported it it had increased with 10% we don't we report carbon dioxide emission with such a delay but we report unemployment and economic growth per quarter per month unemployment we have to report that you had to become a political issue 1970 in Norway emitted 7 ton and Bangladesh emitted 7 children per woman today Bangladeshi emit two children per woman in Norway still amid 17 - you see it which countries change in which country doesn't change basically these rich countries doesn't change actually some of our emissions hit them because we start to import products from these countries here so some of the emission is transferred to these countries but really I think you have to start measuring justice and see what enormous difference and start to say all Africa can only use solar energy because they are down here doesn't make sense doesn't make sense in the account use code of course they can if it's cheaper and in many places it is cheaper it's up here we need to see the change and we don't see it we talk about rich and poor and the rich people they have all these sort of electrical stuff and they have all the machines and they fly for holiday abroad and the poorest people don't have electricity and fire on which they cook their food and light their home but there are only 3 billion 2 billion there and 1 billion the other four billions there are somewhere in between that's what you miss if you think developing countries and rich world and how do they live well this is the poverty line 1 to $2 a day that's travel food clothes house kids to primary school this guy called the airline it's when you can go by air for all you fly Norwegian to the Mediterranean and then out of these ones 1/2 washing machine I call it the wash line how many here is it that does not use washing machine regularly that the regularly used washing machine to wash your your or your trousers and your sheets in the bed how many is that that hand wash we had one in Stockholm University was sitting there but then it was empty around him like it's interesting everyone here use washing machine that means that every family in the world should have access to washing machine they don't have to own it they can use a commercial alternative if that's more effective they can have a cooperative organization but we love the steel mill who made the washing machine we love the power station I made the electricity and we love the chemical processing industry who produce the washing powder but all these three things can be environmentally much more cleverly done and recirculated and taking care we can have green electricity for for the washing machine we can have chemicals which are much more clever we can use less water we can recirculate all the metals but we want washing machine I think that's the level and when we talk about the development of Africa I have worked abroad with people my friend my best friends are there ice-t and Africa where people are washing machines that's what it's all about it's not about having a little lamp in the evening and the mosquito net that's temporal for the next five years all my African friends they want their grandkids to have washing machines until some environmentally concerned students in northern uber or Northern Europe stop using motion machines then we can discuss it but it's just that one boy at Stockholm University and they have a lamp one lamp at home lowers child mortality more or less as much as the vaccines do and when the children have diarrhea at night you can light that you can clean up everything gets better you can read that hope the family life starts no your parents and children can spend time together inside with home is all that difference when you have an electric line kerosene lamp is not the same and firewood is not the same so this is our people now these ones use six units of force and fuel they use two unit of fossil fuel and this one one unit of fossil fuel each and these use less than half I don't want to kill the watts and all this stuff you know just complicated this is more or less the units that use so you see these ones over here this 1 billion use half the fossil fuel and this shouldn't come and say that China is a bigger problem become its per capita since this course started so what will happen from 2010 to 2015 is population growth or economic growth the challenge for the environment this is my question yes there will be 2 billion more but they will increase here where they use very little fossil fuel but the difference they will be they will add the litter they will move here hopefully they won't consume more because they don't need to consume more it already have a nice life they won't be more happy everyone asked me about happiness index there is no indication that people over here get happier some would get when it's unjust in society but on an average as a population having a total average but it's not really what makes life so much better so they can go that these ones want to go on holiday so they will move over there a China is on its way Brazil is on its way and they will increase their fossil fuel use these ones love the washing machine so they will go there and double their fossil fuel and this one hates that fire and they go there to get the lamp and they increase to this this is what we can is what we think will happen so this means that population growth only added one and a half unit whereas economic growth added 9.5 units stop messing with a population that's not the issue it's very dangerous when you don't know this because we don't take the action that are so urgently needed by talking about something else emotionally Laban surround no sorry sorry sorry then it gives very bad connotations blaming other populations love children but that's the environmental problem when the youths are molded this is not the issue we will be 9:00 to 10:00 9:00 to 10:00 plan for that but this is not sustainable to double the use of fossil fuel in and what I say I'm not emotional not an active I have study I was try to say what I consider the fact undisputable I will be very clear more careful there is a high probability that it's not sustainable it's a high probability may take the chance you don't need to have an insurance don't need to have a home insurance you can take the risk you don't need to have an or me perhaps Russia won't attack you you can save all that money but you never know you know where the Russians perhaps it's better I mean if you have an army you have to do something about climate change if you don't have an army and you don't have insurance you don't have to do anything about climate change yeah you bet that your casino game but there are so many other things which we have very lower probability about and we still make huge investments to avoid the risk we have so they have to reduce their consumption and out as I read we could be more efficient and we could have a behavior in which we used it you have this fantastic speed link from from the airport you don't need to have taxis from the airport often you can come in to so you can plan meticulously a society so you use less energy and you don't have to have more two boats you can build sandcastles on the beach instead with the kids you can have a lot of more fun than having this old martial consumption of oil and so on so so behavior and more efficiency then you can produce your energy in greenways so you actually reduce it but you start with the richest who have all the capital and the innovation power and can do it don't start to ask the poorest to solve the problem for you for the time being that is one we get green and I accept that they may build Koehler power plant I'm quite happy that India build a Kohler power plant in northern Mozambique where I worked when people also enormous leap or just need the electricity and it may be one of the lost one it may be that solar turns out to be to be cheaper but it still isn't proven cheaper at big scale and it has to be complimented for industrialization with other things then with this one we are in a better situation to do diminishing III strongly a combat less ideological studies more looking and calculating what it really means and what did happen what will happen my daughter should study she shouldn't have a life like me don't come and tell her that her daughter's would continue to wash by hand she doesn't like it the favela in Rio they voted for Dilma Rousseff she was Minister oh and ain't she beautiful the old revolutionary now now makes good situation for the market forces and the economic growth there you know and her her motto when she was Minister of Energy with Lucia para todos in Portuguese electricity for everyone it means light and electricity at the same word this one people want electricity so we will have a lot of more consumption in the world we will be 10 min but it's the economic growth but there's not economic growth for wasteful things that's why I took the washing machine as example and not cars in China everyone said all Chinese cannot have a car that wouldn't work no I said if every household doesn't have more or less the same situation how do we think the world world will function when we are global citizens we have to accept that and take the most feminine machine you can find the washing machine and think about that instead it's serious this is from 20th of August this is from national snow and ice data center Denver Colorado it measures the area of the Arctic ice this is the average from 1980 to 2000 this is the year 2007 when Al Gore came and gotten Peace Prize it was this line that brought him the Peace Prize then we had the lowest ever area here in the mid September this is this year's line we have less Arctic ice today the reality melts the ice faster than the models did you hear it's faster than the models that many of us including me thought perhaps they were exaggerated now we look at it you can I look at this daily now it's absolutely fascinating every day I say I go it on my iPhone and go and look it it's very interesting its all-time low at present this is the Arctic sea volume it's even more terrible situation because when you just look at the area you don't see the volume and that has since 1990 decreased from 12 what is it thousand cubic kilometers sort of difficult you need to understand but it's now down to three that ice we have is very thin it can go very fast and be careful in Norway because this may be good for Norway in one respect because Kirkham has maybe the new Rotterdam where all the containers in Europe will be united and sent off through the open sea to Shanghai you will be as a country in a very difficult situation because you will be suddenly this orc with your graphical position you had the only excuse is that your country is so beautiful but but it's very really cold and it's very special in many ways this mass suddenly become aware if you own some land in Kilkenny's you are happy if not you buy it tomorrow you know this will change and it will melt this is the melting you will see this map daily it's very interesting to me this is quite this is what I see I'm most lecture about what I actually can see what we can see generally in the world is an economic situation that looks like this 1800 all countries had less than 40 years in life expectancy miserable they had just two thousand dollars on average very unique unequal Britain Netherlands and the Americas and then the rest of the world and this is more or less what happened they got richer and richer through technology and market economy and then through medical and public health discovery healthier and healthier also behind this is better education of those and and and there we came in the into the new world 1948 with the rich countries up there and then China starts to go up but not so to make some severe mistakes and then he comes up again here and not certain guys and things European goes for the money look here that's the world today you have down here you have Congo and up here you have Norway where is most people their hand in the middle just here in the middle this is Chile they get aid from Norway this is Mexico this is Brazil you get aid from Norway Norway so I criticize nowhere this let me say Norway is having an absolutely fantastic steady Paulinus steady policy in health aid when it comes to vaccinations and lowering child mortality much more than other countries together with Gates Foundation I've been very steady also the nor father investment fund you have there's a number good death initiative not to mention the peace negotiation that Norway have been able to contribute to but when it comes to this what I criticize Nora for with its joint for all the rich countries they don't know who they are they have an idea the crisis and they don't know how to relate to Russia Brazil India and China so you sort of you sort of don't don't you can't handle what poverty's and what this is this is the the the income distribution in the world I should show it from when I was a student in 70 and I take away health just money money for families one dollar per day ten dollar per day hundred dollar per day I compress the high income I took apart the low ones because really you should have a relative scale or a logarithmic scale as it's cool for money and and and when I went to university we had all this hump of people who was below $1 that's more or less when you are hungry every evening Africa's here Latin America East Asia and South Asia this was the Soviet economy trying to catch up with the OECD the West Latin America was here in between and and and and what happens was this that was indeed an economic growth in the world but the inequity didn't decrease the distance between the richest and the poorest got wider because the rich got richer what I hate to hear when people say the poorer yes get poorer and poorer they can't get poor there's so many hundreds of millions of people are so poor that if they get poor they die and disappear yes they're hungry Matthew nine eleven mati materials new Alva our daily bread gave us today that's here we just have food so the poor a the the terrible thing is the projection here to 2015 we are working a lot with projection but if I go to where we are now we still have this huge number one and a half billion of people are still in poverty as we are stretching away in this end so you have to have more than one thought in the head at the same time to understand the world this is dreadful poverty and many people who get to work at very bad working conditions and just an accident at work and they don't have insurer once they fall back into poverty but the overall picture is positive the overall pictures process but people don't stand here and say hooray for market economy we love globalization because they know they are just one step back in poverty I started to lecture about global health I said poverty course diseases it was here poverty caused diseases now I say these theses cause poverty because the people who have just got out of poverty and start to hope their children's will get to scold they need the cesarean section traceurs knit they need they get a broken leg they get tuberculosis and they are back in poverty most common cause to fall back in poverty so we have this dramatic situation where you emotionally can be neoliberal and say free the markets trade that will be better to be this is the truth in them or you said no this globalization just tear but we still have so many poor people workers are badly that's right both things at the same time but we are also they're a little too late we think that companies move to Asia because of those salaries yes that still exists now Emma Klein is right but it's not the whole story why does Swedish ball-bearing company SKF move to Asia because that's where they buy big ball bearings they are building nations there I do they what do they hire their cheap labor no they hire university engineers that are very good and competitive and their problem is that they don't stay in the company they pay them up to the same level as in Europe and they still don't stay why because they are brilliant people brilliant as the best of you and there are more on that brilliant level now being filtered through the universities in Asia and they don't want to work the hell of their life to save the future of a European company they want to see an Indian brand grow they want to see a Chinese brand grow I was guest researcher at Google for a half a year and that was this day when you stood there in Mount than view and you lined up but it was someplace 96th when I came in you know everyone was 30 years and younger and then me you know was they by some sort of mistake and I came in and I said there was a 25 year old Chinese woman on this side a 35 year old British guy on this side he has worked with the naked chef and he was going to cook the food for the Chinese she had came out on computer science in Beijing with the highest score she had gone to the net she did the coding for Google on the net without going to us they sent her the green card and hire her and now a British guy was going to cook the food for the bridge Chinese that's a new world isn't it I like it when it becomes very concrete and you see it and I alter now your futures in San Francisco she said five years and I go home and work for Alibaba because she want to see her companies beat you know so you have at the same time and I'm not saying that low paid workers are badly treated in Asia they are but a little less bad now by the major company and and and and things are getting better in that also now it's more the internal companies that treat them badly but they move they move on in their in a very very interesting way forward this is the poorest this is the diseased I've been working with in Africa for many years I have the permission to show this photo from the family's poverty those who one step more and they die this is also poverty can look at Nick and night but imagine every day have to walk for what see the girls there can't go to school there to carry water so this is progress this is economic growth she is so happy she says I love ball bearings you know I love Industrial Revolution and ball bearings in this for for a woman she can carry home water for three other woman's now this is increased productivity of the individual that's to me its economic growth it's not what these bankers are doing with their accounts that's not doesn't interest us normal people but this is things having a tap in the home that's economic growth and this woman we interviewed in our studies in Malawi she told the whole story she said it's very good that I went to school thanks for aid that gave me the books very good that my kid is healthy thanks for aid that gave us a mosquito net mosquito nets does not function if you sell it at the market the poor are so poor so they can't pay for it but when they get healthy kids they get fewer kids and then they get microcredit and then they can grow their economy thanks the World Bank for the toward road now I can reach further rights is good I want to make my own decisions I'm alone because my good husband is working in the city to earn money so we can build a better house for the children microcredit was good that bought me the bicycle and I can go with my products but I really don't want the market I want a job content even invest here doesn't matter if they're white or yellow I just want to work in a factory and have a paycheck every month you know and information is good the cell phone is good bye I have a dream I want electricity and fertilizer but it won't give it because the a doesn't like to build ants and they don't want to give me fertilizers they want me to do ecologic conformance and damn it I do the moat ecological forming in the world he had to cut down the energy using the right and the resource using the richest part of the world but in the poorest people have to use more we have to differentiate him the poor are not going to solve the problems of the rich this is the cut off you see here money that is health up here this is where oacd say everything on this side is aid but they took away Russia and Ukraine for some obscure reason and Brazil was hit this line in four years all that idea of giving so much money to to Brazil won't work Gavi which is where Norway is really doing well so having criticized Norway let's take example global aliens for vaccine initiatives together with with Gates Foundation they cut here and say every country on this side gets free vaccines symbolic payment here you graduate for five years then you pay yourself damn it you should be able to pay vaccines for all kids there are rich people in that country tax them we won't help that country too progress if we keep paying the vaccines for the kids it's in the interest of the rich to pay for vaccines for everyone huh it's very interesting that it's so much difference here how would you relate to this here in the middle those are the ones that lend money to Bush why should Sweden give aid to China the same year China buys Volvo explain that to me I can tell these are the countries that have been removed on the list I really advise you to do this no one studies this why we have this list it's a very good thing to run for your for your seminars what the relation should be we gave you this map you have our website there you can get free access to all the software we have Creative Commons I sit on it we call this mind the gap from London Underground it's a good idea you know you can upgrade your worldview and remember if Bush did it you can do it [Applause]

Channel: UniOslo

Views: 78,042

Rating: 4.7651992 out of 5

Keywords: Hans Rosling, TEDTalks, TED, Karolinska Institute, UiO, University of Oslo, Universitetet i Oslo, Gapminder, statistics, interactive, graphics, economic development

Id: nvUxnnlKZSc

Length: 70min 23sec (4223 seconds)

Published: Mon Sep 17 2012