Free Online Seminar: My Favorite Intraday Trading Strategy

okay let's officially get started here this evening welcome everybody tonight's presentation is going to focus predominately on intraday trading strategy of course brought to you by Co trade now a few upfront disclaimers we are not financial advisors or a broker dealer the reason I mention that is well my previous 15 years in this business I not only worked for but ran the education division of thinkorswim and TD Ameritrade you know I will use the thinkorswim platform oh just once or twice tonight it is not essential to be on thinkorswim in any way shape or form for anything that we're going to discuss tonight ah the other copyright Disclaimer well this says don't duplicate this without the expressed written consent of course of Co trade the National Football League and there's our address obviously here in Scottsdale a little bit about me my name is Don Kaufman the co-founder here of Co trade I've been an option strategist but you know when I first started in this business it started in the late 90s in Chicago and come from a family of traders I was derivatives risk manager at about a 19 year trading career and yeah I do have 17 years of thinkorswim platform experience about two years into my career I was invited into a startup brokerage firm that was called thinkorswim thinkorswim was eventually acquired by TD Ameritrade I remained there pretty much my entire career so 15 year career and built the education division of course a thinkorswim then ran education of TD Ameritrade and there's seven million clients I've done the CNBC tour over there I just like this saying I mean listen if you're going to get pitted against somebody on CNBC make it him all right which is mr. wonderful over there this is actually when Apple we did this Apple was trading in about the hundred and thirty realm Apple traded all the way down to $89 I was the short he was the long so it worked out then again Apple right now one hundred one hundred and forty plus all-time high in fact today in fact one of the stocks we're going to discuss today is going to be Apple here's a little bit about Co trade so what would you hear at Co trade we specialize in education for options futures and stocks was founded by professional traders trading educators everybody here that does any trade instruction whatsoever at Co trade has a minimum of 15 years of experience several with many decades fear trade I mean we're here to help you mitigate the risks of the market everybody if you know like let's make money let's make money first and foremost we do talk about risk mitigation while really learning a skill set we do a tremendous number of course courses tonight's presentation I think you guys really enjoy and you know more than what is a Theo traders who is Theo trade so Theo trade is not just myself again Don Kaufman we actually have doc Pedersen who's involved heavily in stock options and technicals Jeffrey Biermann Jeff actually worked with me at both sink-or-swim n TD Ameritrade it's kind of uh my market technician he was also the chief market technician for TD Ameritrade predominantly traded stocks some options and ran a hedge fund for a number of years we also have on board Steve better known as Slim Miller who's got a lot of experience 43 year ah veteran of the Chicago Board Options Exchange stock futures trader and of course the last definitely at least tony ray go tony's our in-house Nasdaq futures and intraday strategist so that's just a little bit about who is theö trade so what we're actually going to talk about tonight what you are going to learn in tonight's presentation first and foremost how to generate high probability outcomes with intraday trading setups how to select the right options for intraday trading okay this one is of critical importance how you can be right less than fifty percent of the time and still receive consistent trading results think about that for a second we're going to talk a lot about when it when it comes to trading we're going to talk a lot about trade logic why intraday trading does not mean be glued to your screen all day so we're going to look at some setups for intraday trading where you can walk away how is that possible because we're not going to put you an extensive risk and how to circumnavigate day trading margin restrictions with various alternatives dunked everybody's worried about I don't have twenty five thousand dollars minimum in the account I get it I spent 15 years in the brokerage industry we haven't learned how to circumnavigate day trading margin restriction using alternative products out there so again if you don't have the twenty five thousand in your account that's the day trading margin regulation will show you how to circumnavigate a little bit about this I mean these last two are critically important I don't want you to sit in front of the screen for six-and-a-half hours a day I've been doing that now a prelude to what I called on in market direction tonight we're going to focus okay on what creating directionally biased trades right we're limited to an hour this free online seminar is designed in effort to impact your approach to trading the markets if you've got skin in a game or if you've traded in the past many of the examples used tonight are going to resonate so I spent 15 years looking at retail and professional client accounts and a lot of the skill set that I'm going to talk about tonight comes from where traders are effective and where they need work so that's one of the things on the cover right up front right here right now so let's jump into it a few Theo trade principles to begin tonight's presentation so again tonight we're going to focus predominantly on intraday trading setups right and usually when people like okay intraday trading setups let's get to the chart first of all back up back up all right it's critical to distinguish for effective trade performance it's got to be based on these three factors and I always want to stress this and I'm going to you know highlight this trade logic trade logic trade logic what does that mean I'm going to show you here momentarily what it means to have trade logic number two capital allocation out capital allocation frankly tonight we're not going to have a tremendous amount of time to talk about capital allocation tonight we're going to focus on trade logic okay and directional bias directional bias what does that mean it means we got to look at something and figure out what is the market likely to do on an intraday basis okay now I say obey the rules out there so let's get into it with trade logic first or trade logic know how you approach trade is vastly more important than being right or wrong in the markets so I just can't stress this enough right how you approach trades is way more important than being right or wrong people always look at this like well follow the bouncing balls red and green flashing arrows which way are we going to go how many times you've been right directionally but if still lost money in a trade by the way these are not rhetorical questions okay there's several thousand people joining us tonight let me know I mean how many of you guys have ever been right in a trade but maybe he got stopped out you know first recall stop is a four-letter word okay nobody here has ever been right but still lost money in the trade you know you either you if you trade adoption fine traded futures fine traded stocks by everybody's done this okay you get stopped out of it well we're going to put a little bit of an end to that so moving right along over here tonight's trade logic the first step before we go in and we really want to start talking about intraday strategy before we can do that you have to define the strategy you're like okay a strategy it's not like go in there like look for the breakout look for the gap print higher you know look for the MACD to cross this level forget about this that has to be secondary you got to ask yourself in every single trade if I were to do this trade 1000 times what would be my outcome just timeout for a second and think about that if you did the same trade you know a thousand times okay because many of you are what I love this phrase and hopefully nobody's offended by this but many of you are directionally challenged traders you guys heard that one before I should coin the phrase Challenge traders can still perform if given the correct trading logic think about that for a second when I talk about like being right like a thousand times you're doing a trade a thousand times there's no joke okay everything you do in the markets you have to do it again and again and again and again it's about a number of occurrences you know you may never create a thousand times that's fine hopefully you do trade a thousand times but even if you don't trade per se a thousand times okay maybe you do it a hundred times what's your outcome going to be after trading 100 times and you know the irony of this nobody ever seems to answer you know and again we've got to get to different chat rooms set up over here we're broadcasting you know into GoToWebinar or broadcasting it to you know another room over here and nobody ever answers that question I don't know what my outcome is going to be you have to know that intraday options in trade logic in order to create a viable intraday trading strategy we shall employ the use of options okay so why am i doing that well it's because we're using a defined risk option strategy as the trade will not have to be monitored the entire trading day so we're going to go out there and we're just going to define our risk we're going to say we have X amount of risk why because it translates you don't have to sit in front of the screen all day I do this all the time I'll go out there and you know do something which I'll show you here momentarily and I do watch the screen throughout the course of the day because well you know that's why I live and breathe markets for the past it's almost 20 years now but you don't necessarily have to be glued to the screen all day which brings up a point I know this question always comes up you can you do this off of like a mobile device of course you can trade off the mobile device right as long as your eyes are pretty good or you have to have a bigger mobile device so if you have absolutely no options experience do not have cause for concern I'll take you through a very very basic options example and for those of you listen for those of you that have a bit more experience you understand options hang out a minute you know because again we're going to jump right into this trade logic here momentarily but it's important to get everybody at least moving in the right direction so again in order to create a viable intraday strategy you got to use the options okay we could do this with stock we could even do it with futures contracts but options are going to be the great equalizer options are going to allow us to not have to use things like stop orders options are going to allow us to be able to walk away from the screen and again there's a lot of different ways you can employ this strategy with that let's get some of the basics of options options basics explained well for this well I've got a blank screen over here right oh I'm going to I'm going to make myself the John Madden of the of the markets I'm actually going to draw on the screen over here this could be any stock out there you know for for number of years every stock I have it's called we're actually going to make this okay the stock is called stock so this is a stock and let's say the stock is trading right smack at $100 so you have a stock and it's trading at $100 well if you go out and you purchase that stock and again even on an intraday basis okay where could this thing go alright so stock where could it go on an intraday basis obviously depends and how wild how volatile a product happens to be but you know I've seen stocks an intraday basis gapped down you know for instance 295 I've seen gap up 5 bucks to 105 over here so the variance okay on an intraday basis could be quite substantial alright so instead of just trading the outright stock not to mention the variance could be you know substantial think about the amount of capital you're tying up there tying up $100 per share which is going to be a little bit limiting if you have for instance you know two thousand dollars in your account you're probably not going to go up by a hundred dollars stock okay it'll also trigger of course the day trading margin rule if you trade it off it so once again here is the stock in trading a hundred instead of going out and buy the stock in this particular case we're going to go out I'm going to use what's termed in at the money option right we're going to go out we're going to consider buying a 100 call now just for my own curiosity over here just for my own curiosity how many of you have some options experienced now again there's about a thousand people total in here it's okay alright so alright a lot of people are coming back yes yes yes yes me me me me me me me by the way it's okay you know you can say like I have absolutely no options experience whatsoever so you going to buy a 100 call and I'll talk about the 100 call here for just a moment and we're going to pay right approximately two dollars for this option that's $2 per share okay so we're going to buy a 100 call what is the 100 call give us the right to do gives us the right to buy the stock we're at a hundred right now I want you to keep in mind that this trade is only going to be quote unquote intraday now what if you intraday mean to you well to me it means to get out in every case by the end of the day so if you're buying a 100 call you have no intent of actually buying the stock at 100 why are you buying the 100 call for $2 because you hope that that $2 appreciates in price okay now again buying a 100 call gives you the right to buy the stock at 100 if you buy a 100 call you have the right to buy the stock at 100 where would you want the stock to go well if you buy a 100 call you want the stock up here what's up here to 200 that's probably not going to go to 200 in one day but let's say the stock was capable of getting for instance to 102 that day you buy a 100 call for $2.00 okay ultimately the product it's all the way to 102 and you're going to be like Oh what do I make okay what do you make well on an intraday basis okay this $2 will again it will appreciate it will appreciate by how much okay now this can get a little bit crazy but do not look at this 100 call as necessarily moving dollar for dollar with the stock okay what that means is if the stock goes up a dollar with this option increase by a dollar no this option will increase OK by about its defense ok for every one dollar move in the stock so think about this if the stock goes up a dollar the option goes from two dollars and will go to 250 ok the stock goes up two dollars again we're going to do this on a nice linear basis let's say it's another 50 cents for another dollar ok then the option is worth 3 bucks ok so you've actually got this option that you purchased for what for two dollars by the end of the day if the stock actually goes up to 102 that option could go from two dollars and literally be worth 3 you're like oh that's on a percentage basis this is a big return however ok the opposite could also be true what happens if the stock doesn't go up what happens if the stock goes down what happens if the stock goes down to 98 ok well the same will be true you can actually lose money how much would you lose well the option might go from two dollars and again if the stock went down to 98 well let's say the option is worth a buck so in this particular setup I wanted to keep it clean I wanted to keep it easy I just and again there's a lot going on on the screen but cleaning easy if you're right ok and the stock goes up two bucks gonna make a dollar if you're wrong and the stocks going to go down two bucks you're going to lose a dollar okay where's the edge in that there isn't but now I'm going to take you into a real logical options example the real logical options example and again I'm keeping this nice and easy for those of you that have no experience remember 100 calls is what does it give you the right to eat right to buy the stock at 100 do we have intend to buying the stock at 100 no we have no intent of buying the stock in hundred we will out of the trade by the end of the day they regardless of what happens okay now let's show you some real option pricing okay so we're going to move forward from here we're going to go options logic example in this example you buy an option an intraday basis this means you bail out prior two days and in every single case the big question which option do you buy that's always that's always the question that you should be asking oh I need to know what option would option okay which option which option which option because risk versus reward is critically important now the previous example what did I do I set up like a risk one to make one that's what I originally set up their risk one to be able to make one yeah well guess what I think we could do better than that like again which option do you buy that's what you know what people are actually in the in the chat room right now they're like how far out do you go in timing do I do this option do I do that option what do I use okay 100 trades later or even a thousand trades later in this scenario you will need to create a trade setup whereby we could be right 50 percent of the time and still see a degree of profitability now think about that right in the affirmation example in the after mention example we're basically risking one to be able to make one if you risk one to be able to make one and you're right 50 percent of the time now why do I talk about being right 50 percent of the time okay remember when we talked about this tonight what's the first thing you got to worry about when we go back to those CEO trade principles the first thing you worry about trade logic trade logic trade logic what's the second thing you worry about capital allocation what's the third thing you're going to worry about directional bias why because I can do a lot of things right but you can still screw up direction I want you to know that now because everything that you're bombarded with in this business everything everybody bombarded with you follow the bouncing ball it's MACD it's a Fibonacci it's a Bollinger bam they have prior Terry you know studies we gave you a proprietary study prior to this evening's presentation okay because the keys the keys to this tonight aren't just about like all let's be right sure think I can actually make you more effective and being right but first you better setup the right trade logic because you're not always going to be correct with the direction of bias if you could do a hundred trade to be right 50% of the time and still have some positive outcome still come out ahead does that interest you anybody anybody okay think about that for a second if you could be right 50% of the time still come out ahead does it interest you of course that's what you want to do now this isn't a little bit more in-depth this ladies and gentlemen spiders okay and I actually took this screenshot today you know I had a I had a nice presentation ready but I took the screenshot today because I wanted to make a point with this what you're looking at here is the spiders what are the spiders the S&P 500 ETF now I could have just Apple I could have used you know the Russell I could have used the SPX I could have used Facebook um Tesla you name it but I chose the spiders because it's one of the most liquid products in the known universe and here the product itself when I say products I just mean spiders the spiders themselves you're trading for okay 235 20 they're trading for 235 20 and I have gone out and we're going to die and again I want to elaborate upon this we're going to buy not sell by the 235 50 calls just for 37 cents now again timeout timeout 37 cents if you do one contract because options traded contracts they don't trade and shares one contract will cost you thirty seven dollars there's nobody mess on tonight that couldn't afford a $37 trade and here's the other interesting irony if you go out okay you do this you don't have to have special like tier two margin approval you can have just Tier one you can buy a call a buy a put for intraday training is by a thirty thirty seven cents we're just going to buy a 37 sent option and I go okay why what's the most few lose 37 cents right so we're going to buy a 37 sent option with the underlying trading at 235 20 okay let's continue from here so you can see the exact price by the way so we're all clear 37 cents at the time of this screenshot okay you're pretty much guaranteed to fill their why but did it's 36 the offer is 37 just buy it on the offer 37 cents done filled okay moving along what's the most you can lose well 37 cents so the spider is trading at 235 20 now this happens to be a bullish example again I elaborated upon that right spy intraday bullish example could I have done a bearish example of course now I wanted to do a bullish example because I believe that it's easier to interpret that way people get kind of confused with puts like I bought to put does that mean I bought the right to sell oh no I don't know what it is get it it's a little confusing so I'm just using a bullish example for the hell of it tonight in this example we bought the 235 50 calls for a 37 sent debit our maximum risk is 37 cents that's it if you do one contracts 37 bucks you do 10 contracts it's 370 dollars what are the 235 50 calls worse if spider moves up a dollar this is the ultimate question got to be able to answer this what's the 235 50 call worth the spider moves up a dollar what's the 235 to call worth the spider moves down a dollar you've got to look to both sides see in here is their directional bias no there's no directional bias whatsoever in there all I want to know what happens if we go up a buck what happens to go down a buck you're not seeing anything about charts just yet because I'm going to get to that that's the second half of tonight's presentation now let me show you here's the exact the exact same screenshot and what I want you to see if the spider moves up a dollar okay the option will be worth 96 cents if the stock moves down a dollar the option be worth roughly nine or ten cents right so what I did is I looked at the 235 50 call I looked at his 235 50 call and I said what's it worth if we move up a buck so to figure out what a 235 50 is worth if the stock moves up a buck look at the 234 50 because this option becomes this option if this stock moves up a dollar but what happens if we move down a dollar well the 235 50 call becomes the same as the 236 50 call okay which means it drops in price to about 10 cents so that's minus a dollar so what I'm doing is I'm actually pricing the future I'm saying what happens to go to 236 20 or what happens if you go what you know I don't care what happens if the market goes to zero the market goes to zero think about that for a second think about it good now you want to see exactly what happens again we paid 37 cents for the option if the spider moves up one dollar we're going to gain 59 cents if the spider moves down a dollar we're going to lose almost the full 37 cents we're going to lose 27 cents of it now think about that for a second if we move up a buck we make 59 cents we go down a buck all right we lose 27 cents now assume you're correct 50% of the time still alive edging here yes even after commissions people always ask me about what about commissions for those of you if you're in the co trade okay and we'll talk about this later we do have negotiated commission structures with brokerage firms that's all all they will say we have negotiated Commission structure with the brokerage firms that will make commissions really a very much a non-factor commissions are commoditized these days but again let me go back one slide over here so we're all clear again the option would jump okay this option would jump from 37 cents to 97 cents okay or the option goes from 37 cents to 10 cents that okay that's where I come up with you're going to make 69 cents you're going to lose 27 cents you realize even if the spiders literally crash and burn that day you're not going to lose more than 37 cents timeout why doesn't everybody do this okay how easy is that example it's pretty easy I just pulled it out today of the marketplace every single day these trades are going to present themselves but very few people go after this because they don't understand the logic and the right options okay the trade logic implications first of all they're huge and constructing any intraday trade the option selection it's imperative that you get this right think about the implications of selecting a strategy that can provide a degree of edge in the markets before we have discussed direction of the markets long live trade logic it's always first and foremost okay and somebody actually asked a great question too and I don't mind answering this why is it a non-symmetric move okay why is this a non-symmetrical move it actually has to do with something called Delta Delta is the rate of change of option for every dollar increment move in the stock okay the Delta of this at the money option is almost 50 cents the del key to get steeper as we go in the money the Delta gets more shallow as we come out of the money moreover okay what it really means is when the option goes in the money it trades at almost a one-for-one rate with the stock yet we only have 37 cents at risk okay options afford is the ability to be able to do this and it's not quote unquote symmetric again when you're capable of making more losing less this is a good thing okay get edge this is why so many options now trade okay on an intraday base so again long live trade logic I love love doing this all right you guys ready to move on everybody okay over here and by the way volatility has almost no impact whatsoever I know somebody quite at question dad about options there's no impact of volatility you didn't pay attention which option do I live did you right just making sure that we always like you a little bit of time out make sure you get what trade logic means what does trade logic means it's the implication behind strategy strategy is not just about being right or wrong directionally okay strategy is really about having the right mathematical setup for the trade and that's that's what we do all right all the good questions in there now ladies and gentlemen we move to part two directional bias danke finally let's approach a directional bias that's what people are really here for okay you know more often than not people don't really get into like you know oh yeah I get it option strategy yada yada yada the greatest thing about having 37 cents at risk in the previous and after mention example is that you can walk away from the screen I don't think you're going to be sweating over 37 cents a risk and that's the most important thing if you can think clearly in a trade you're going to be fine in that trade but directional bias I'm not going to discount directional bias you know why okay if you're right more often than you're wrong you're going to make more money period there's no if and or buts about it okay no if and or buts about it if you're right more than you're wrong you will make more money if you have good trade logic this is what I call the quant guide to market direction first of all I should let everybody know and I didn't an up front if you're brand-new and you've never been to one of the presentations that I do I am actually referred to as a quantitative trader or quant for short it means trader math geek okay any strategy that I present is going to have some mathematical logic to it and it's going to be based on probabilities and outcomes like I don't care like red and green flashing arrows listen I will look at a chart right but that's not my main say I'm not going to make a decision just based on you know a red or green candle out there Kwan's just do not typically rely on charts and studies but rather on probabilities relationships and seeking statistical edge in the markets one of the first things as you showed you tonight with the option side of it it's all about statistical edge in the markets but if you're not familiar with this idea of a quantitative trader and again quant is such a buzzword okay after the movie you know the big shorter is like Quan Quan it's the math geek in the corner that doesn't usually come out and talk right but again you know I'll be going over throughout this presentation why and how quantitative analysis will really become kind of your your best new friend and I kind of grew up around like quant traders out there so markets speak volumes trading for you needs to be about reading into market relationships right reading market relationships can help you construct probability based outcomes on an intraday basis so people don't typically think of this way but what I'm saying is well the market speaks volumes guys right let's go into let's go into an actual example over here the apple of my eye and I loo Tweel of that picture over there it's quite disturbing exemplifies a little bit about me here's another kind of perfect example imagine you're trading Apple on an intraday basis imagine it how many come on how many people here have ever traded Apple in an intraday basis people admitting it is the first step today okay yeah anybody anybody anybody Apple on an intraday basis a listen I'd give a couple seconds tonight no no no no no apples a okay by the way I'm a equal opportunity trader I will literally trading stock options futures Apple Facebook okay and by the way here here at CEO trade you cannot talk badly about stock unless you're short that stock so if you mention the word snapchat I can officially say I am short snap because I like to talk poorly about it but imagine you trading Apple I need a base let's give a nice bullish setup and going to go long the stocks there have even about options for a second we're just going to talk about long the stock here you can stare at a chart on Apple but did you think to yourself whatever factors will influence the outcome of your Apple trade again think about that you stare at an apple chart throughout the course of the day right you know you've got a ped down it's an apple chart an apple an apple chart but what are the factors of an influence the outcome your Apple trade intraday set up some strategies the following trade setup on Apple is a quintessential breakout on all-time highs now we're going to actually review the chart setup I don't look for this one to the chart crossing through the old Apple insignia over here so think about this for a second people talk about this all the time you know following the Apple trade it's quintessential breakout on all-time highs what type of the trade am I talking about well let me show you okay this is just the other day will come to timeframes and when this is right in just a moment when I say it's just the other day what you actually had here this is the previous day's close okay you guys with me it's a previous day is closed that previous day's close was right in this neighborhood here it was about a hundred and forty $1.43 that's the previous day's close Apple actually gaps higher the cash open cash open means ding-ding-ding the bell goes off gaps open where does it open right in this neighborhood by the way if is a 1-minute chart the thing moves up okay and rips higher at the cash open over here now think about that it's wildly bullish right stock it's again it's kind of that quintessential gap from the open guys with me all right this was an earnings this is literally just the other day so there's no earnings over here this is just a gap higher again this is as I mentioned earlier that Arum actually show you two breakout at all-time highs it's like it's like the quintessential trade that people look for the gap higher okay now you're really going to like this Apple cracks to an all-time high and appears to be breaking out to the upside that print right there if I had the chart zoomed out you'd even see this this print right here is Apple okay at an all-time high Apple at an all-time high over there all right hey now here's the question now again this is you know these are not you know subjective obviously but they're not rhetorical questions jump in here are you ready for your ancient strategy you see Apple gap higher gay prints to the open goes for an all-time high what strategy might you employ to take advantage of Apple okay intraday breakout to new highs okay what strategy might you employ to take advantage of Apple B for a breakout to new highs anybody anybody okay again intraday oh there's there's a ton of different questions over here things breaking out to all-time highs over here I like this the answer is stop everything oh hold on hold on I love it I love it people are like I want to do this I want to do that I want to do this okay why do we want to hold everything okay let me show you exactly where we've gone massively wrong in here first and foremost again hold everything did you check the bond market before entering into the Apple intraday trade did you check the bond market have you viewed the volatility futures with the Russell what was the Russell doing at the time of Apple breaching it and new highs over here Apple is smokin hot what was the Russell doing and the Nasdaq please tell me you were checking the Nasdaq at the exact same time okay one thing that is driven is crazy over years people are with doing what we call myopic trading are you guilty of it are you guilty of being a myopic trader sorry to tell you but while you were focused on Apple breaking out to new highs he missed the trade opportunity Apple is actually poised to sell off hard within minutes myopic traders are those focusing on one product and failed to see the larger probability of an impending sell-off don't worry happens to everybody there's a cure for this okay the point that I'm making over here is every every time I've gone to get for trade shows and I watch other webcast out there it is like look at look at Tesla's breaking out two all-time highs who the hell cares what Tesla's doing like oh oh look at Apple oh it form the perfect formation with a heavy shoulders and a breakout and this is that are you kidding me okay that's looking at one chart one chart doesn't drive the market let me show you what does drive the market the main optic cure enter the intraday setups first step in intraday trading looking at any one product should be the death of an intraday trader it literally will be the death of you you cannot look at one product you cannot focus on one product myopic traders fail to see the markets move in relative cohesion and I'll show you what that actually means you know what this translate to if you watch one product you fail to see the bigger picture of the market the intraday setups used properly okay will keep you from tunnel vision you know it just takes off the goggles over there and Apple ultimately ate you for lunch back to our example here in the dangers of myopic trading as you're glaring blindly okay at an Apple you failed to notice the bonds are rallying the volatility futures are being bought heavily oh I mean everything that day is screaming to get short what do you think this this translates to literally what do you think it translates to okay translate to Apple upside down appellate for lunch what appeared to be a breakout to the upside and it was that quintessential breakout to the upside over there you just looked at one chart this is a chart setup that's supposed to be bullish but if you looked at the one chart you were you're buying it hook line and sinker over there again what appeared to be a breakout to the upside with an excellent short opportunity based on probabilities in the markets we were short where were you that's right I led you down the path that most traders are going to take now here's why you should have shorted Apple for the record I did short Apple it's March 21st that was last Tuesday that was a big sell-off over here and in this particular case I did happen to use the stock okay I did actually use the stock in here you can see my execution time and by the way this is Pacific time so I shorted 753 ok and I closed the trade 15 minutes about 15 minutes prior to the close so 1:00 p.m. gay Pacific time is actually the close 15 minutes prior to the close over here we shorted ok at 1:40 to 7 ok and bought it back at 1:40 in change that short it paid us and nicely so you know what was the past why did we actually short Apple that's that's the real question first of all the Nasdaq futures now is that futures Halling they were just getting hammered falling hard minutes after the cash market opened again when I say cash market what am I talking about right down here at 6:30 in the morning okay Nasdaq futures out of the gate this is actually the indicator that we provided you what is the indicator well it's the quad indicator what it actually do heavy yellow candles indicate confluence and sell-side activity in all four metrics what are the four metrics it's the tips it's the advanced decline line okay it's the breath over here and the candle itself there are four common metrics we're not looking at the the tape over here and going I think it's going to sell off it's ultimately showing us confluence confluence confluence gay sell side activity and all four metrics yellow means you have confluence of all four simultaneously and they're all again quantitative indicators in here we're looking at advanced decline line numerical quantitative data numerical the breast numerical gate the candle itself is the only thing okay that has to actually be measurably lower once again quantitative data on there so the Nasdaq futures they were getting hit hard but that's just some quantitative data that's that's not necessarily going to going to do it for me number two over here volatility futures okay in volatility futures they were tearing to the upside providing further evidence risk is imminent so if you take a look at the volatility futures right out of the gate okay here's the cash open right there they're thought to be futures boom I mean this is a huge the monumental move it's screaming that the markets going to sell off it's well before the market actually sold off last but not least in this particular setup the bond futures don't dumb-dumb oh this was a fun one because the bonds they were actually look this is 6 a.m. this is a half an hour before the open at 6 a.m. the bonds were already ripping the bonds are ripping up ok it's everything is screaming risk is imminent risk is imminent risk is intimate across the board over there what we're actually doing is creating a probability based outcome for you even intraday trading is based on probability based outcomes by looking at select products you can create a higher probability outcome for intraday trades let's review a few products that can allow you to create viable intraday probabilities over here and this is what a checklist might look like now you have to get comfortable with where is everything supposed to be for example here okay bonds what are they doing advance the klein line which advanced to klein line volatility futures Nasdaq futures S&P futures financials energy sector ok if you know the correct products to watch and what to look for you create a probability based outcome and an incredible viable intraday setup its massive to be able to look through this and again all I've listed here is a handful that's right off kind of a cuff I mean these are you know for the most part a lot of people probably look at these but what specifically are you looking for now I'm going to deviate just a little bit for you okay because in this intraday checklist and this is where I want to deviate for a minute I'm going to take you into a live market environment over here this happens to be my own watch list okay and when I say that you want to create a bit of a checklist first and foremost many people don't even understand if you can't see futures you can't even see the marketplace this is what drives order flow the S&P 500 futures why are they so imperative like why are the future so imperative they move the entire SMP 100 so the way to actually construct this in your mind okay here is the S&P 100 whatever these futures do whether they go down whether they go up they will drive every stock in here okay and this all works through a system okay called it's called statistical arbitrage now is that a big scary term what it basically means it's a bunch of quant raters that have figured out mathematically how to move every stock out there okay and that's what they're doing oops I got a green screen over here so this may have actually figured out how literally how to move every single stock in the S&P in accordance with what the S&P 500 is ultimately doing out there now think about that all right and think about the logic behind that so again every single stock is moving with the futures the future start kicking up the stock stick up the futures take down the stock stick down and it's going to drive trade what also drives trade well volatility futures it's going to drive the bonds over there if you know exactly what products to watch you get a much better probability in an intraday basis and again when it comes to probabilities on an intraday basis how do you do this okay if you were to look for example at 10 different things on the screen okay and those paying different things all pointed towards being bullish is that a better outcome think about it is it a better outcome if you have 10 products and all 10 products say we're going to be bullish today it provides you an outcome and a positive outcome however on the side you still have to know what options to trade you have to know how far out in time to go you have to know exactly when to employ that particular strategy out there and that that's what we really do these are key factors to intraday success here's the key factors we discussed this evening number one you must employ about like a viable trade logic all right we talked about that like the 37-cent option out there if you risk 37 cents emotional is 37 cents but if the position goes our direction okay you know you can technically make dollars with 37 cents at risk number two primary again key factor in intraday success you got to use a multitude of quantitative indicators they can really assist you in creating a higher probability intraday setup again we gave you an indicator to get you started on the right track over there here's an indicator and when you're like what are these blue okay what are the blue well the blue ultimately one is a confluence whatever confluence mean the ticks are up the advanced client line is positive the breath is positive and the candle is positive out there but there's much more to it there is much more to it over there is the right trade logic coupled with quantitative approach to directional bias what most of you guys have been looking for I mean again this is is very different but I'm presenting tonight and I've never put a class together about okay directional bias with a quantitative approach because it's hard to actually go through to you know exemplify my own quantitative approach but you know first of all fear not the intraday trait you may not know options you have limited experience and placing option trades again using options are going to be a key factor to the logic we can show you how and when to place intraday option trades in a matter of a few hours what we do here at Co trade is just create detailed recipes for every strategy including the intraday trade and the way I always think about this like when it's a recipe it literally is a recipe and again as I was mentioning in the previous slide over here I never put a class together before on a quantitative approach there's a tremendous amount of detail to the recipe over here and I have been spending inordinate amounts of time doing this you know you wouldn't bake a cake without a recipe so I'm trained without one and everybody says why doesn't everybody do it first of all everybody has the right questions over here you know here's what you need to know what stocks do you do this on okay that's kind of a big question what stocks to you this one well I showed you the spiders obviously you know you can do it on an Apple how do you determine whether you're bullish or bearish we have to use that subset of quantitative indicators the bullish or bearish is obviously a key portion of the directional bias out there right you want to know are we going up or are we going down and then the intraday basis using a number of indicators we can do that and again they're much more mathematically oriented what expiration do I select what strikes do I use and if you're getting into the options you need no expiration strikes position sizing one contract two contracts we contract more with the correct probability for each trade how do I execute the trade when do I exit what do I do in a losing position well if you have 37 cents it's not that bad of leaving position is it and that's what we do here criteria it's what we do at Co trade okay trading is all about answering the what-ifs again the right stock candidate the correct options how much capital do you commit the right stock options you know do I buy what about intraday margin restriction now you know I promise I had looted to this earlier and I promised I would tell you intraday margin restriction how do you get around it circumnavigate it now you guys may know nothing about this but there's a product called the S&P futures the es futures did you know that options on these futures did you know that these options coming to April gonca in April they're now going to have a Monday a Wednesday and a Friday expiration Monday Wednesday Friday there are three separate expirations now why do I mention options on futures you know like I don't even know what a future is man I have no idea what a futures contract is that's okay teacher what the futures contract is and then well then you can trade options on futures why because there's no day trading margin rule because a day trading margin rule is from the SEC and FINRA futures are regulated by the NFA the National Futures Association and CFTC commodities and futures exchange so you can actually trade anything you want with minimal amount of capital and as many times as you want in and out in a given week that's how you get around again do you trade it's the answer to your questions again the bright probability the options contract closing the trades what if the stock sells off big what's the correct return for the strategy we rally massively can you fix losing trades we answer all of those by building definitive criteria definitive check links with each unique variable you actually go through whatever go up what if we go down but if we stay flat you have to have recipes for every single variable now how the wind the why at what price it's just the beginning of the variables you're going to face especially on an intraday basis I mean the secret it's in the sauce you know everybody thinks to themselves I could read about setups listen you're right somebody's actually going to show you a setup if I going to have some crazy proprietary technical indicator and it's going to have red and green flashing arrows over there you can do this well think again you got to follow the strategy the corresponding criteria it's the utmost attention to detail this quantitative approach to years to fine-tune okay you got it when you approach these trades you've got to follow the steps to build a trade would you guys like the criteria to build the intraday trades of course everybody wants we're doing a class on it okay the class coming April 8th now most people at vo trade already aware there's a class coming April ace okay and I'm going to explain this in some detail I will be the instructor for this particular class it will be a three hour class however the class that is on April 8th also includes okay an April 10th full live day of trading now I'm going to do a few hours during the live trading day but you're also going to get input from doc Severson you're also going to get input from Tony Rago you're also going to get input from Jeff Bierman okay we're stacking the room you're going to have approximately five full hours okay this is recorded not everybody can take off a Monday on April 10th I get it the whole thing is recorded don't feel like you're going to miss anything and we will do live trades okay but the class takes place on a Saturday why I needed three hours to prime you the entire class one hundred ninety-seven bucks and just to be clear over here the class is one hundred ninety seven bucks and everybody's like one hundred ninety seven bucks yes for the live class which includes all archived you have unlimited access to it you get the whole slide deck the class is recorded you learn again you can go back to the class five hundred times if you want addition to the class in addition to the live trading you're also going to get a number of bonuses with this column bonuses listen they're prerequisites all right you know to do a class of this magnitude make no two ways about it you got to get ramped up to it right so we gave you options 101 some of you guys have ready bins your options 101 just out of curiosity almost everybody in here okay has done options 100 I like this can you set an exit trigger while I'm at work yeah you can I'll get to that in just a minute so options 101 options 201 okay which is vertical and calendar essentials it's just priming you by the way these are some long classes do you need to start watching them these are available right here right now the class that happened April 8th happens April 8th but these bonuses you start watching them tonight I don't care if it's like 11 o'clock in Eastern Time nobody sleeps anymore anyway so what's the fun in sleep volatility essentials classes pretty pretty good but in addition to it I needed you to understand some future so we included futures 101 this class just recently happened and just recently sold for 97 bucks ok the options mini class its weekly this is a weekly options mini class you had to understand weeklies before this because we're going to use weekly options what products to watch and why this is a three part series this bonus class right here I don't care how much experience you think you have you need to watch this number six class of what products to watch and why class you have to watch that before and last but not least we have a Pheo quant day trade chart setup with Inter day indicator for thinkorswim if you don't have sink-or-swim that's okay if this is not an essential indicator but again I just want to like you know display this that there's indicators we're giving to you all the prerequisites were giving them to you each one of these classes is over a hundred bucks we're doing this for one hundred ninety seven dollars because we want your introduction to Theo try to be a good one we do classes every single month you know I want to make sure that we do the classes they to the best of our ability just go to fioat Raycom /j Theo trade comm /de now with all the bonuses and everything again every one of these classes available to you tonight and the indicator okay there's an additional like and a whole package of indicators that's in here that we'll go over a little bit in a class the class is not essential that you have the indicators we built them okay if you do not have thinkorswim I will show you away during the class to work around no problem whatsoever but every one of the bonuses available tonight let me take you through some of the curriculum during the class the class is called consistent intraday strategies and setups and by the way yeah there's a question coming up in here so it's all recorded so April 10th if you can't make it like on the Monday April 10th that it's during the live trading session so I start at 8:20 a.m. 8:20 a.m. and we will then end at the close the closing bell ding ding ding it's over and we'll record everything ok subcategorize and give you access to that now here's the curriculum how to create intraday trades probabilities on your side ok minimize risk maximize your term how to analyze the markets so you can read and anticipate the market's direction the option setups with detailed step-by-step entrance criteria so we got to get to which option ok how the market provides predictable and manipulated ranges for every stock ok now some of this again we're giving you the prerequisites because some of this gets kind of in-depth like this is a lot of again a lot of material being covered in a three-hour class we're going to give you a little known market insights and what drives markets to move in one direction so you can get on the right side of trade you guys I'm telling you what products to watch and why that's a three part series that alone is going to be worth one hundred ninety seven bucks you watch bonus number six tonight and you come around tomorrow and email us and tell us like holy crap that was worth at least one hundred ninety seven dollars this is a huge again primer for this class over here the tools and strategies for analyzing market conditions so trade with confidence in the intraday and how to minimize your risk maximize returns all right in addition to it this is continued curriculum generate returns with a small account or a retirement account you can do this in a retirement account if you have an IRA because you're only going to be trading calls or puts that's it we're not going to use spreads in an intraday basis which stocks and indices make the best candidates for intraday trading obviously the spiders are going to be a good one okay what strikes an expiration do I select when to open when is the best time to close all right what market correlations do we watch over there literally the market correlations and some of this is going to help manage your longer-term investments over there and literally why intraday trading doesn't have to mean glued to your screen all day again I don't mind telling you I do sit in front of the screen six and a half hours a day okay today I will I laughed a little bit today came back over there and what really some of the best times of the day for intraday trading so you can really get a good set up and a good jump on the day now can continue on with this and I will answer I see a ton of questions coming in so uh uh by the way the bonuses again everybody keeps asking about the bonuses over there will give you a link to thinkorswim no problem over here the products again tonight like literally if you want to see how crazy cool this class is going to be just check out what products to watch and why because I just reviewed some of the class in in the last few days over here this is the session get a while ago and it fits perfectly into the class and it's just it's the best primer for it but I'm going to tell you right now if you watch bonus number six and you know you think you know about the market this one's going to be shocking you but in addition to all of this you know we offer an alternative would you like to access right to every class we have ever done Co trade we do at least one class per month at least a class per month we will give you access to every class we've ever done every indicator we ever had and access to every class we will do for the next year and it's what we call all right Co trade kind of curriculum and here's what's actually included in the Co trade curriculum just go to Co trade comm /de if you want access to just the one class it's fine the one class still comes with all seven you know bonuses in there or we will offer you okay it's nine hundred and ninety seven dollars for an entire year you know these are some of the classes that are already in the archive so you can go oh here's being 101 301 there's actually a guide to selling high probability spread a risk to its class surviving extreme volatility you might want to watch this one even those of you that have some experience you might want to watch this and by the way there are many of you that are tuned in right now that are members of co trade you don't have to pay this class coming up like if you're a member of Theo trade you have access to the coming class you have access to all these different gay classes right that are prerequisites over here iron Condor class sell premium manage risk with covered calls class essential skills for consistency trading class this is also another big one I think this is a wonderful prerequisite for really trading in general this is about trade logic ok huge class this is a weekly options class a butterfly class pairs pairs dunked on the final frontier we also have classes and technical analysis technical analysis 101 we have technical analysis you know 201 out there fractal energy class which is docked Severson the RSI class which is dock Severson planner gets slaughtered which is docked Severson by the way some of the technical analysis classes are Jeff Bierman some of Murdock's Severson we've actually got a futurist class in there as well I didn't even lift it in here Tony Ray goes Nasdaq futures classes in here the small account trading workshop 10 10 top 10 skills for growing a small account the whale workshop by the way there's this and a lot more I know it's totally overwhelming to look at this it's 9 97 whatever it's a thousand bucks ok for an entire year and it gives you every archive that we've ever done and it's again pretty spectacular way and entrance into into Theo trade so here's the actual site to sign up for it again CEO trade comm /de 197 bucks ok it's 3 hour class or check out again what we call total Theo it's a 12 month mentorship by the way when you sign up for an entire year you can email us you can ask as many questions as you want we're in the chat room live just so you guys know here's the chatroom right now okay here's the chatroom right now and by the way hey if you're in the chatroom right now you want to give any comments these are all current members of Theo tre they're chatting right now because they're able to watch this live inside of the room this is where the class to take place you're like what do you mean this is actually the room it's a video player you can even maximize it to a full-size screen okay we stream in 720p so again and if anybody wants to put something in this this whole chat room right now is live all right don't forget swim so yeah of course don't forget slim Steve Miller the guys got 43 years of experience in here and again this is unfiltered these people can write anything they want about Pheo trade live in here and there's there's a lot of people in the room right now I mean we have okay now thousands of members that are in the 12-month mentorship and a lot of people always question you know what what else can you possibly buy listen it's nine hundred ninety seven dollars we do not charge you extra for indicators there's no additional charge for an indicator okay we give that to you there's no additional charge for like some coaching we give that to you there's no additional charge for anything every single class okay is involved here at vo trade and I know it's kind of overwhelming and additionally we even email you out trade ideas so while you're learning this if you need when we mail you out trade ideas we do it all the time but just did a trade on you know PLT the other day emailed it out closed it we didn't read on spider the VA closed it we've actually got a whole strategy being emailed out to you called the fly by okay um don't write there's actually good comments in here so where's every penny sweet this is kind of cool to broadcast it in here because again so uh don't forget you'll get a daily dose of Don sarcasm yeah there's there's a lot of sarcasm I'm going to throw at you too I hope you uh because I'm on I mean we took a lot of time on a much more quantitative trader and I surrounded myself with chart geeks market technicians right so Jeff Bierman doc Severson Slim Miller some nose in the cyclical analysis if there's something you guys need we're trying to provide everything that you need for an entire year at one cost because you know oh look at this you spent forty three thousand bucks another way I just want you guys to know this this is live here so dick is not being prompted alright although I'm sure I've emailed her a number of times over there Tony Rago and his futures class is in there oh the sarcasm is free too nice thank you Mobius by the way Mobius who is in the chat room this evening he happened to actually build the indicators that you will be presented with after enrolling for these classes so Mobius actually builds many of the indicators we do some pretty rigorous testing over here and those that make the cut boom they go to everybody which is it's been phenomenal for us so I always give credit credits to in möbius möbius by the way is not employed not employed by CEO trade use but the client that I've known since I was at thinkorswim a long time over there so let me answer a couple of questions over here because I think that's that's fair and and again I want to put the the address up there it's Theo trade comm /de you can email support at Theo trade comm by the way that email goes directly to me and everybody like everyone at Co trade everyone at Theo trade see every email that comes into support of Theo trade comm there's also our phone number you got questions email okay it may lie let me let me answer a couple of questions that are right up front over here

Channel: TheoTrade, LLC

Views: 22,543

Rating: 4.7934275 out of 5

Keywords: don kaufman, intraday trading, day trading, theotrade

Id: PHmYT-OfxcM

Length: 68min 3sec (4083 seconds)

Published: Wed Mar 29 2017