IS UP ALMOST 30% IN THE FIRST HALF. AND THE BEST PERFORMING SECTOR. CAN THE RALLY ROLL ON IN 2-H. JOINING US JEREMY SIEGEL, PROFESSOR AT UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA'S WHARTON SCHOOL, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT WISDOM TREE. GREAT TO HAVE YOU. PRETTY NICE GAINS HERE MID YEAR. WE ARE SEEING PEOPLE SAY WHY NOT TAP THE BRAKES. WHAT DO YOU THINK? >> WELL, I THINK THE MOMENTUM IS STILL THERE. BY THE WAY, WE'RE TALKING ABOUT, YOU KNOW, WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT DURING THAT HOUR AND A HALF, S&P FUTURES WERE TRADING AND THEY WERE UP 10 POINTS. SO THE QUESTION OF, AT LEAST AT THIS POINT, DID THE STOCK MARKET LIKE TRUMP BETTER THAN BIDEN, I THINK THAT VOTE AT LEAST WAS TAKEN THEN. NOW, OF COURSE, WHEN POLICIES FINALLY GET ENACTED, THINGS CAN CHANGE VERY, VERY DIFFERENTLY. AND SECONDLY, YOU KNOW, IF TRUMP DOES -- IS -- DECIDED TO STEP DOWN AND A FREE NEW POSSIBLE NOMINEE FOR THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, REMEMBER, EARLY HOPEFULS WERE INTERESTING, ALMOST ANYBODY BUT TRUMP ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE EASILY BEAT BIDEN AND ALMOST ANYONE BUT BIDEN ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE EASILY BEAT TRUMP. SO IT WAS SORT OF AN INTERESTING JUXTAPOSITION BETWEEN THESE TWO MEN. SO, YEAH, POLITICS IS IMPORTANT. ON THE ECONOMY, I WOULD SAY THE RECENT DATA HAS BEEN ON THE WEAKISH SIDE. NOT REAL WEAK. NOT A RECESSION SCARE, BUT, YOU KNOW, WE WERE COMING IN 3%. A LOT OF PEOPLE THE SECOND QUARTER, 3.5. I WOULD SAY WE'RE BARELY TWO AT THIS POINT WITH THE DATA COMING IN. AND GIVEN THE GOOD PCE DATA AND WHAT I THINK IS GOING TO BE VERY GOOD DATA, CORE INFLATION IN THE SECOND HALF, I REALLY THINK THE FED IS -- SHOULD TEE UP THE CUT ON THE JULY 31st MEETING, CONFIRM IT AT JACKSON HOLE, IN AUGUST, AND DO IT IN SEPTEMBER. >> DO YOU THINK THE MARKET IS ALREADY PRICED THAT DAY? >> WELL, I THINK THE FACT THAT THE YIELDS ARE DOWN AND THE STOCK MARKET UP, AND THOSE PROBABILITIES ARE PRICED IN. ACTUALLY, MY FEELING IS, I WOULD SAY, WHAT, 1, MAYBE 1.5 CUTS IS PRICED IN, IF YOU LOOK AT THE JANUARY FED FUNDS. I THINK THERE WILL BE MORE. BECAUSE I THINK THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT MORE SOFTNESS IN THE ECONOMY AND BETTER INFLATION NUMBERS, BOTH OF THOSE FEEDING LOWER RATES. NOW SLOWER ECONOMY ISN'T THE ONE THAT YOU WANT TO BE GOOD FOR THE STOCK MARKET, BUT LOWERING INFLATION IS CERTAINLY AND RATE CUTS BECAUSE OF THAT, AND LOWER RENTAL RATES, YOU KNOW, WE KEEP AN INDEX OF CURRENT RENTALS AND CURRENT HOME PRICES AND OUR CPI CORE AND PCE CORE IS NOW BELOW THE 2% TARGET ON A YEAR OVER YEAR BASIS. AS MANY ECONOMISTS HAVE MENTIONED, IN FACT, EVEN POWELL AND JANET YELLEN, WHO WE'RE WAITING FOR THOSE LOWER RENTAL RATES TO FEED IN, LOOKS LIKE THE SECOND HALF OF THIS YEAR THEY WILL TO GIVE US THAT GOOD INFLATION. >> PROFESSOR SIEGEL, I GUESS TO BROADEN IT OUT A LITTLE BIT WE'RE UP 50% IN THE S&P FROM THE 2022 MARKET LOW AFTER THAT BEAR MARKET THAT WE DID HAVE THERE. YOU GOT ABOUT 18% ANNUALIZED GAINS FOR THE LAST FOUR YEARS OR SO. IT SEEMS AS IF THE MARKET HAS BUILT IN A LOT, ALTHOUGH IF YOU COUNT IT FROM THE 2022 HIGH WE'RE NOT REALLY OVER OUR SKIS. I WONDER WHERE YOU THINK WE ARE IN THE LIFE CYCLE OF THIS BULL MARKET? >> IT'S HARD TO SAY. THAT'S ALMOST SAYING YOU KNOW WHEN IT'S GOING TO END. LISTEN, THE P/E GOING FORWARD, YOU KNOW, THEY'RE 21, BUT WITH STRONG MOMENTUM ON EARNINGS AND AS HAS BEEN SAID, THERE'S A BIFURCATED MARKET. YOU TAKE OUT TECH AND YOU'RE MORE AT 17. YOU GO TO THE SMALLER AND MID-SIZED MORE LIKE 13 AND 14. TECH AS I'VE BEEN SAYING HAS BEEN DELIVERING THE BACON FOR ALL THOSE INVESTORS AND THAT MOMENTUM IS STILL THERE. I'VE BEEN SAYING THAT FOR THREE ARE FOUR MONTHS I DON'T SEE THAT BREAKING. YOU KNOW, EX-TECH, THERE'S ABSOLUTELY NO OVER VALUATION AND TECHS IS NOT OVER VALUED IF IT KEEPS OFF PULLING OFF THE EARNINGS GAINS THAT IT HAS BEEN ABLE TO DO SO FAR. WE ARE ALSO, THANK GOD, NOWHERE NEAR 2000. THE QUESTION IS, ARE WE 1997 OR 1998? NO ONE REALL
