Evidence of explosion near Ukraine dam say Norway scientists - BBC News

and we begin with breaking news this hour about the kakovka dam in Ukraine it was breached leading to mass flooding and evacuations well now scientists from Norway say that seismic signals detected in Romania suggest there was an explosion in the area at the same time that water began flowing Downstream questions have been asked as to whether the explosion caused the breach or where the previous damage had simply weakened the structure well let's go straight to our diplomatic correspondent Paul Adams who is in the Ukrainian Capital Kiev and Paul it is hard to know the exact details but we're starting to get more evidence now aren't we about what could have caused this catastrophic failure of the dam because I think the one thing we can say with some confidence now is that it was clearly an event which occurred at 254 in the early hours of Tuesday morning the seismic readings that were detected around 400 miles away in Romania indicate that this was a very very large explosion they describe it as between one or two magnitude they're still working on the data they haven't translated that magnitude into a kind of calculation as to how much explosives that would require that is quite technical work but it is clear that that explosion which they identify within a uh less than 20 mile radius of the dam at Nova kakovka was a very very large explosion we're probably talking about tons of explosives so I think that I to my way of thinking that establishes that what caused this breach because that is exactly the time when local reports started talking about this catastrophic breach we now know that it was the result of a major explosion now of course does that tell you who did it no but the dam and the adjacent hydroelectric plant were controlled by Russia the explosion We Believe or the breach We Believe came from the end of the dam adjacent to the hydroelectric station the ukrainians have been arguing since last April that the Russians had mined the dam and this morning Ukraine's internal domestic Security Service released what they say and we cannot verify this but they say as a recording of two Russian military figures discussing the demolition of the dam by a Russian sabotage group they say that the two men at least one of the men observes that it was designed to frighten the ukrainians not necessarily to destroy the dam completely it's worth remembering that this is on a front line and that at various areas along that front line the ukrainians had shown some interest in trying to cross the river de nipro and so from a purely military point of view there may have been some incentive for Russia to warn off Ukraine about any possible any Prospect of a river crossing so it's if you like it's an accumulation of evidence that really does point the finger very strongly in the direction of Russia being responsible and Paul while all of those uh questions uh see cancers there's a humanitarian crisis that is unfolding too we were just looking at images of drones trying to drop water to people who were still trapped in those flood waters what can you tell us about rescue your efforts there particularly because there are reports those efforts to get people out have been hindered themselves by artillery fire on the people that we're trying to evacuate well again remember this is a city a song that is also on that front line albeit now a rather broad front line due to the enormous flooding down the river her son has been shelled ever since the ukrainians took it back in November so in in one sense what we're seeing and what we've seen throughout the week is not particularly different from what we had seen before the dam burst but certainly rescue workers in Hesson who are still plucking people from waterlogged homes report that they believe that they are coming under Fire some of that those uh that fight is be uh exchanges of gunfire with you know artillery being fired in both directions but they they do sense that at times they have been targeted you mentioned getting water to people that is probably top of the list of things that the Ukrainian authorities are wrestling with now because the dam and the reservoir behind it uh was at the heart of Ukraine's water supply system in the whole of that area of Southern Ukraine so in terms of Agriculture but also in terms of the provision of clean water to hundreds of thousands perhaps even millions of Ukrainian civilians in towns and cities not even adjacent to the river but quite some distance from it all of that has been jeopardized and thrown into into question by the events of uh Tuesday morning so water is the number one preoccupation particularly as it's hot uh Hassan is still flooded with filthy polluted water and there's a real danger of disease Paul for now thank you it's good to talk to you Paul Adams our correspondent live in Kiev well let's take you to the areas outside of the capital we can speak to our presenter yilda Hakeem who is traveling in Ukraine and yolder what are you seeing where you are train we're heading towards Kiev at the moment but 12 hours in total we came in from NATO territory from Holland overnight and we came through leviv which is a place that I was at just over a year ago when this war broke out and changed a lot there were massive queues at the border a year ago with women and children trying to flee the country and of course martial law remains in this country men weren't allowed to leave the country at the time and and they still can't go and of course you heard Paul there talk about the humanitarian crisis in the east of the country where uh the dam has been breached and the impact of that but life is very different here in the west of Ukraine life continues as normal we are seeing military vehicles lorries passing coming over from NATO territory into Ukraine supplying this country with the military equipment and Hardware it needs as it begins it's counter-offensive but when you look out the window life here is as normal as it would appear anywhere else in the world you wouldn't think that we are currently in a conflict Zone when you come through the west of the country yes and Yoda the line holding up for now so I want to speak to you while we can and I know you're going to be doing a lot of reporting in the coming days but you touch there on that much touted spring offensive now the summer offensive that counter-offensive from Ukrainian forces lots of suggestions that is focused right now in a very specific area but what sense are you getting of what people know about what is going on in different parts of the country right now well as you say Ben the spring offensive now becoming the the summer offensive was much heralded much talked about for many months you and I have spent time speaking with Ukrainian officials uh military experts who have talked about this counter-offensive and the ukrainians themselves the military officials have kept their cards close to their chest they don't want to talk about it in fact they launched a a little campaign a video a few days ago where they had their military officials had their their fingers to their mouths almost shushing people to say stop talking about this uh counter-offensive that this won't be some kind of blow of a whistle to say that it has begun they are focusing on the east of the country as you say the epicenter is now the east in places like zabrisha for example and we know that zapricia the nuclear power plant is there and has been the front line for a long time since this conflict has begun of course we're seeing things developed in as well so the Ukrainian officials themselves are keeping their cards close to their chest but they are trying to make this a very targeted very specific uh counter-offensive without it being some kind you know the conflicts in other parts of the world many people uh liken it to the war was a description of a shocking or attack we're not going to see that here uh in Ukraine as we launch into this counter-offensive begin reporting on it um and then obviously it'll turn into a summer offensive they do have a small window or window of about three months before the winter kicks in so the ukrainians are trying to push back the Russian forces as much as possible before they get into those sort of October November months and it gets much colder much harder to fight Yoda it's really good to have you with us on the program and I know you'll be reporting extensively from there so we will let you go for now but thank you that's our presenter there Yoda Hakeem joining us live from Western Ukraine so yold are talking us through some of what we know so far let's just put a bit of that into context for you and show you where on the map this fighting is beginning once again Russian officials say that Ukrainian attacks in the key southern region of Sapporo Asia are continuing that's amid reports of heavy fighting there several military experts have said the area will now be the focus of Ukraine's long-awaited counter-offensive the government in Kiev is deliberately saying very little about those plans well zapparito is in Ukrainian control but much of the region which is highlighted here in bold is occupied by Russian forces what Ukraine wants to do now is tear down some of those positions it holds in the north of zapparesia region down through russian-controlled territory towards the Sea of azov giving them access to Crimea so it is here that Russian forces are concentrated they are deeply embedded they've been building fortifications for months creating very elaborate defenses and laying mines with Tom tokmak which you can see in the center of your screens being particularly well fortified by the Russians so that is the overview let's talk some more about that and where all of this leaves the country we can speak now who's a senior Consulting fellow for Russia and Eurasia program at the think tank Chatham house uh it's good to have you with us here and we've touched on some of those issues there we've looked at the map what is your assessment right now of the state of this counter-offensive and where the fighting will be most heavily focused well it's worth bearing in mind we've just heard two very different things from your correspondent and your intro just then first that we don't actually know where the main thrust of the offensive is to be and then you laid out very confidently exactly where it's going uh the problem is at this point it is still probing and shaping and figuring out exactly where the weak points of Russia's defenses are there isn't the overall shape of the campaign actually yet becoming clear we can make some educated guesses as to what Ukraine might actually want to achieve but as your correspondent says their campaign of operational security of keeping everything silent has been very successful and let's not forget that was a key element in the success of Ukraine's offensive last Autumn when they liberated vast areas from Russian occupation now they've been careful to manage expectations on this occasion and not say that the Russian army is going to collapse and they're going to push forward and Liberate the whole of Ukraine but it will become clear when this campaign has developed a little further where the main effort is actually going to be made yes and you're quite right to point out that reporting from the front line is very difficult and it's hard to know exactly what is going on right now the reports that we do get may be coming a little later than the actual activity um quickly for us if you will because time is tight but how difficult will all of this be for Ukraine given what we've said about the uh the heavily fortified defenses of Russian troops of course it's been immensely frustrating for Ukraine and for its supporters to watch Russia building up its defenses while Ukraine's Western backers divided and delayed over preparing the providing the weapon systems that Ukraine needed to push forward but Ukraine says it is ready and of course it has it all of this time to plan and prepare for its operations and make the best use of those additional equipment and training that the West has actually provided on top of its own capabilities so we can be in little doubt that they will know best where they can actually push forward and make the maximum possible gains

Channel: BBC News

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Id: U0EZNjJM-ZI

Length: 13min 2sec (782 seconds)

Published: Fri Jun 09 2023