Everything Elon Musk Said At Tesla's Autonomy Day

if I can add something that the general principle here is that any part of this could fail and the car will keep driving so you could have cameras fail you could have uh Power circuits fail you could have one of the Tesla full full St driving computer chips fail car keeps driving the probability of of this computer failing is substantial lower than somebody losing Consciousness that's the key metc at least in order of magnitude at first it seems improbable how could it be that Tesla who has never designed a chip before would design the best chip in the world but that is objectively what has occurred not best by a small margin best by a huge margin it's in the cars right now all Tesla is being produced right now have this computer we switched over from the Nvidia solution for snx about a month ago and switched over uh model 3 about 10 days ago all cars being produced have the have all the hardware necessary compute and otherwise F full self-driving I'll say that again all Tesla cars being produced right now have everything necessary for full self-driving all you need to do do is improve the software and later today you will drive the cars with the development version of the improved software and you will see for yourselves we finished this design like maybe one and a half two years ago and began design of the Next Generation we're not talking about the Next Generation today but we're about halfway through it all the things that are obvious for Next Generation chip we're doing the strategy here and it this started basically three little over three years ago was design build a computer that is fully optimized and aiming for full self-driving software that is designed to work specifically on that computer and get the most out of that computer so you have tailored Hardware that is a master of one trade self-driving Nvidia is a great company but they have many customers and so when as they apply their resources they need to uh generalize solution we care about one thing self-driving so that it was designed to do that incredibly the software is also designed to run on that Hardware incredibly well and the combination of the software and the hardware I think is unbeatable what we're going to explain to you today is that lar is a Fool's errand and anyone relying on lar is doomed doomed expensive sensors that are are unnecessary it's like having a whole bunch of expensive like one appendix is bad now want to put a whole bunch of them that's ridiculous you'll see if you're driving for an hour in in a city and you had a solution hypothetically that was was a kilowatt you'd lose 4 miles model 3 so if you're only going say 12 M an hour then that's there would be a 25% impact on range in city it's basically power is the power the power of the system it has a massive impact on City range which is where we think most of the rubber taxi Market will be so power is extremely important we don't want to talk too much about the Next Generation chip but it's it'll be at least let's say three times better than the current system I I think if if somebody saw it today and they were really good they might have something like what we have right now in 3 years but in two years we'll have something three times better the thing that's I think a very powerful sustainable Advantage for us is the fleet nobody has the fleet those weights are constant being updated and improved based on billions of miles driven Tesla has 100 times more cars with the full stoft driving Hardware than everyone else combined we have by the end of this quarter we'll have 500,000 cars with the full a camera setup 12 Ultrasonics some of them will still be on Hardware 2 but we still have the data Gathering ability and then by a year from now we'll have over a million cars with full self-driving computer hardware everything it's just a massive data Advantage it's similar to how like the Google search engine has a massive Advantage because people use it and the people are programming effectively programm Google with their queries and the results the the simulator we have a quite a good simulation too but it just does not capture the long tale of weird things that happen in the real world if the simulation fully captured the real world that would be proof that we're living in a simulation I think yeah it doesn't I wish but it simulations do not capture the real world the real world is really weird and messy you need the cars on the road simulation you're fundamentally gring your grading your own homework if you know that you're going to simulate it okay you can definitely Sol for it but as Andre is saying you don't know what you don't know the world is very weird and has millions of corner cases and if you if somebody can produce a self-driving simulation that accurately matches reality that in itself would be in a Monumental achievement of human capability they can't there's no way everyone's training the network all the time is what it amounts to whether the whether order aut on or off network is being trained every mile that's driven for the car that's hardware to or above is training the network the crazy thing is the network is predicting paths it can't even see with incredibly high accuracy it can't see around the corner but it's saying the probability of that curve is extremely high so that's the path and it Nails it you will see that in the cars today we're going to turn on augmented Vision so you can see the the lane lines and the path predictions of the cars uh overlaid on the video the car is an inference optimized computer we do have a major program at Tesla which we don't have enough time to talk about today called Dojo that's uh super powerful training computer the goal of Dojo will be to be able to take in vast amounts of data and train at a video level and do unsupervised massive training of fast amounts of video with the the dojo program Dojo computer that's for another day we're just being like more conservative right now and then as we gain higher higher confidence we'll allow users to select a more aggressive mode that'll be up to the user but in in the more aggressive modes in in trying to merge in traffic there is a slight no no matter how many you there's a light chance of fender bender not a serious accident but you basically will have a choice of do you want to have a non-zero chance of a fender bender on freeway traffic which is unfortunately the only way to navigate LA traffic the car can operate if it's completely disconnected from the fleet it just the it uploads the training that's better and better as the fet gets better and better so simply if you disconnected it from the fleet from that point onwards it would stop getting better but it would still function fine the compute power in the full cell driving computer is incredible and it maybe we should mention that if it had never seen that road before it would still have made those predictions provided it was a road in the United States they're all going to dump lar that's my prediction marck my Woods I should point out that I don't actually super hate lar as much as may sound but at SpaceX SpaceX Dragon uses lar to navigate to the space station and dock not only that we SpaceX developed its own lar from scratch to do that and I spearheaded that effort personally because in that scenario lar makes sense and in cars it's freaking stupid it's expensive and unnecessary and as Andre was saying once you sol Vision it's worthless so you have expensive Hardware that's worthless on the car the we do have a forward radar which is low cost and is helpful especially for occlusion situations so if there's like fog or dust or snow the radar can see through that if you're going to use active Photon generation don't use visible wavelength because once with passive Optical you've taken care of all visible W stuff you want if you you want to use a wavelength that is occlusion penetrating like radar so lar is just active Photon generation in the visual Spectrum if you're going do active Photon generation do it outside the visual Spectrum in the radar Spectrum so like at 3.8 mm versus 40000 Nan you're going to have much better occlusion penetration and that's why we have a forward radar and then we also have Ultra 12 Ultrasonics for near field information in addition to the eight cameras and the the forward radar you only need the radar in the forward Direction cuz that's the only Direction you're going real fast so we've gone over this multiple times are we sure we have the right sensor Suite should we add anything more no we have 425,000 cars with Hardware to and Beyond which is means they've got all eight cameras the right the radar and the Ultrasonics and they've got at least a video computer which is enough to essentially figure out what information is important what is not compress the information that is important to the most salent elements and upload it to the network for training so it's a massive compression of real world data I suppose it could possibly be used for something besides self-driving we've been super focused on self-driving so as we get that really nailed maybe there's going to be some other use for millions and then tens of millions of computers with Hardware three full driving computer yeah maybe there would be it could be there some sort of a angle here it's possible there there are a number of important signals as Andre was saying Lan lines are one of those things but one of the most important signal is drive space so what is drivable space and what is not drivable space and what actually really matters the most is drivable space more than Lan lines and the prediction of drivable space is extremely good and I think especially after this upcoming winter will be incredible it'll it's it's it will be like how could it possibly be that good that's crazy it's extremely important that things not be rigidly tied to GPS because GPS error can vary quite a bit and the the the the actual situation for a road can vary quite a bit so that be construction there could be a detour and if the car is using GPS as primary this is a real bad situations asking for trouble it's it's fine to use GPS for like tips and tricks so it's you can drive your home neighborhood better than a neighborhood in some other country or some other part of the country so you know your own neighborhood well and you you use like the knowledge of your neighborhood to drive with more confidence to maybe have counterintuitive shortcuts and that kind of thing but it the GPS overlay data should only be helpful but never primary if it ever primary it's problem High Precision GPS maps and lanes are a really bad idea the system becomes extremely brittle so any change like this this might any change to the system system makes it it can't adapt so if if it it locks onto GPS and high Precision Lane lines and does not allow Vision override in fact V Vision should be the thing that that does everything ex and then like Lane lines are a guideline but they're not the the main thing we briefly bed up the tree of high Precision Lane lines and then realized that was a huge mistake and reversed it out it's not good there's three steps to self-driving is being future complete then there's being future complete to the degree that where we think that the person in the car does not need to pay attention and and then there's being at a reliability level where we've also convinced Regulators that is true so it's there's three levels we expect to be feature complete in self-driving this year and we expect to be confident enough from our standpoint to say that we think people do not need to touch the wheel look out of the window sometime probably around I don't know second quarter of next year and then we start to expect to get regulatory approval at least in some jurisdictions for that towards the end of next year that's roughly the timeline that I I expect things to go on and probably for trucks the tuning will be be approved by Regulators before anything else and you could have maybe if you're a long haul doing long haul Freight you could have one driver in the front and then have four semis trailing behind in a platooning manner and I think that probably The Regulators will be quicker to approve that than other things if to in order to have a self-driving car or Robo taxi you really need redundancy throughout the vehicle at the hardware level starting in I it was October 2016 all cars made by Tesla have redundant power steering so we redundant Motors on the power steering so any one failure of the if if the motor fails the car can still steer all of the Power and data lines have redund so you can sever any given power line or any data line and the car will keep driving the auxiliary power system even if the main pack you lose complete power in the main pack the car is capable of steering and braking using the auxiliary power system so you can completely lose the main pack and the car is safe um the whole system from a hardware standpoint has been designed to for to be a robo taxi since basically October 2016 so when we rolled out where autopilot version 2 we we do not expect to upgrade cars made before that we think it would actually cost more to make a new car than to upgrade the cars just to give you a sense of how hard it is to do this unless it's designed in it's not worth it so we've gone through the future of self-driving where it's C it's Hardware it's vision and then there's a lot of software and there's the software problem here should not be minimized it's a massive software problem that yeah managing vast amounts of data training against the data how do you control the car based on the vision it's a very very difficult softw forare problem so going after going over just like T Tesla master plan obviously we made a bunch of forward-looking statements as they call it um and but let's go through some of our other forward-looking statements that we've made know way back when we created the company we said it build Tesla Roadster they said it was impossible and that even if we did build it nobody would buy it this was like Universal opinion was that building an electric car was extremely dumb and would fail I agreed with them that probability of failure was high but but that this was important so we built Tesla roads going production in 2008 and shipping that car it's not collector's item then would build a more affordable car with the the model S we did that again we were told it's impossible I was called a fraud and a liar it was not going to happen this is all untrue okay famous last words now is we we went to production with the model S and 2012 exceeded all expectations there is still in 2019 no car that can compete with model S of 2012 it's 7 years later we waiting so we' build a an affordable car maybe highly AFF it's affordable more affordable with the model 3 we built the model 3 we're in production said we'd get over 5,000 cars a week for model 3 at this point 5,000 cars week is a walk in the park for us it's not even hard so we do large scale solar which we did through the Solar City acquisition and that we develop and deploy the solar roof which is going really well we're now on version three of the solar tile roof and we expect to SP a production of the solar tile roof significantly later this year I I have it on on my house and it's great and I make the power wall and the power pack we made the power W and power pack in fact the power pack is now deployed in massive grid scale Utility Systems around the world including the largest operating battery projects in the world that at above 100 megawatts and in the next probably by next in the next year tiers at the most we expect to have a G gwatt scale battery project completed so all these things I said we would do them we did it said we do it we did it we're going to do the robot taxi thing too only criticism and it's a fair one and sometimes I'm not on time but I get it done and the Tesla team gets it done so what we're going to do this year is we're going to reach combined production of 10,000 a week between SX and three feel very confident about that and we feel very confident about being feuture complete with self-driving next year we'll expand the product line with model Y and semi and we expect to have the first operating Robo taxis next year with no one in them next year it's always difficult to like when things are on an exponential at an exponential rate of improvement it's very difficult to W one's mind around it because we're used so you're extrapolating on a linear basis but when you've got massive amounts of as the hardware massive amounts of hardware on the road the cumulative data is increasing exponentially software is getting better at an exponential rate I feel very confident predicting autonomous Rover taxi for Tesla next year not in all Juris not in all jurisdictions because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere but I I I'm confident we will have at least regulatory approval somewhere literally next year so any customer will be able to add or remove their car to the Tesla Network so we expect this to operate is some like a combination of maybe the Uber and Airbnb model so if you own the car you can add or subtract it to the Tesla Network and Tesla would take 25 or 30% of the revenue and uh and then in places where there aren't enough people sharing their cars we would just have dedicated Tesla vehicles so we'll when you use the car we'll show you our ride sharing app so you'll able to able to summon the car from the parking lot get in and go for a drive it's really simple so you just take the same Tesla app that currently have we'll just do we'll update the app and add a summon Tesla or commit your car to the fleet so it's either summon summon your car or add summon a Tesla or add your add or subtract your car to the fleet you'll be able to do that from your phone so we see potential for smoothing out the demand distribution curve and having the car operates at a much higher utility than a normal car operates so like typically the use of a car is about 10 to 12 hours a week so most people will drive 1 and a half to two hours a day typically 10 to 12 hours a week of total driving but if you have a a car that can operate autonomously then most likely you could probably most likely you'd have that car operate for a third of the week or longer so they're 100 hours in a week so probably you've got something on the order of 55 to 60 hours a week of operation maybe a bit longer so the fundamental utility of a vehicle increases by a factor of five so you look at this from a macroeconomic standpoint and say just if if this was like some if we were operating some big simulation if you could upgrade your simulation to increase the utility of cars by a factor of five that would be a massive increase in the economic efficiency icy of the simulation just gigantic we'll do model 3 S S3 and Xs taxis but we we made an important change to our leases so if you lease a model three you don't have the option of buying it at the end of the lease we want them back if you buy the car you you can keep it but if you lease it you have to give it back and as as I said where in any locations where there's not enough supply for sharing Tesla will just make its own cars and add them to the network in that place so the current cost of model 3 Robo taxi is less than $38,000 we expect that number to improve over time and we're designing the cars the cars currently being built are all designed for a million miles of operation the drive units designed design and test and validated for million million miles of operation the current battery pack is about maybe 300 to 500,000 miles of the new battery pack that probably going into production next year is designed explicitly for a million miles of operation the entire vehicle will is designed to operate for a million miles with minimum maintenance so we'll actually be adjusting Tire design and really optimizing the car for a hyper efficient Robo taxi and at some point you won't need steering wheels or pedals and we'll just delete those so as these things become less and less important we'll just delete Parts just they won't be there you say like probably 2 years from now we make a car that has no steering wheels or pedals and if we need to accelerate that time we can always just delete Parts easy you probably say longterm 3 years rub taxis with eliminated Parts maybe it ends up being $25,000 or less and you want a super efficient car so the El electricity consumption is very low so we're currently at 4 and half miles per Kow hour but we can we'll improve that to five and Beyond and there's just really no no company that has the full stack integration we've got the the vehicle design and Manufacturing got the computer hardware in-house we've got the in-house software development the and Ai and we've got by far the biggest Fleet it's extremely difficult not impossible paths but extremely difficult to catch up when Tesla has 100 times more miles per day than everyone else combined this is these these today is the cost of running a gasoline car or the average cost of running a car in the US is taken from AAA so it's currently about 62 cents a mile half th000 Mi 250 million Vehicles adds up to 2 trillion a year these literally just taken from the AAA website cost of ride sharing is according to U left is $2 to $3 a mile the cost to run a rubber taxi we think less than 18 cents a mile and dropping like this is current this this would be current this current cost future cost will be lower you say what would be the probable gross profit from a single Robo taxi we think probably something on the order of $30,000 per year and we expect that we're literally designing we're we're designing the cars the same way that commercial semi-trailer semi- trucks are designed commercial semi- trucks are all designed for a million mile life and we're designing the cars for a million mile life as well so nominal of dollars that would be a little over $300,000 over the course of 11 years might be higher I think these consumptions are actually relatively conservative and this assumes that 50% of the miles driven are does nothing or not useful so this is only at 50% utility by the middle of next year we'll have over a million Tesla cars on the road with full soft driving Hardware feature complete at a reliability level that we would consider that no one needs to pay attention meaning you could go to sleep in your from our standpoint if you fast forward a year a little maybe a year and 3 months at but next year for sure we will have over a million Roo taxis on the road the fleet wakes up with an over theair update that's all it takes you say what what is net present value of a roo taxi probably on the order of a couple hundred, so buying a model 3 is a good deal questions production rate generally if you look at our compound annual production rate since 2012 which is like the that's our first pool year of Model Model S production we went from 23,000 Vehicles produced in 2013 to around 250,000 Vehicles produced last year so in the course of 5 years we increased output by a factor of 10 I would expect that something similar occurs over the next 5 or 6 years as for sharing sharing versus I don't know the nice thing is that essentially customers are fronting us the money for the cost it's great sure we expect the solving solving for the snake charger is it's pretty straightforward it's from a vision Prof standpoint it's like a known situation any kind of known situation with vision is like a charge port it's trivial um yeah the cars would just automatically Park and automatically plug in there would be no one no human supervision required yeah sry other part was pricing yeah we just threw some numbers on there I think like definitely pling whatever pricing you think makes sense we just randomly said okay maybe a dollar and the thing is it's there's like on the order of two million cars and trucks in the world so Robo taxis will be in extremely high demand for a very long time and from my observation thus far is that the the Auto industry is very slow to adapt like I said there's still not a car on the road that you can buy today that is as good as the model S was in 2012 so that suggests a pretty slow rate of adaptation for the car industry and so probably a dollar is conservative for the next 10 years because like people think there's like actually not enough appreciation for the difficulty of manufacturing is insanely difficult but a lot of people I talk to think if you just have the right design you can like instantly make as much of that thing as the world wants this is not true it's extremely hard to design a new manufacturing system for new technology um Audi is having major problems manufacturing rron and they are extremely good at manufacturing and if they're having problems what what about others so the there's on the order of 2 billion cars and trucks in the world on the order of about 100 million units per year of production capacity of vehicles but only of the the old design it will take a very long time to convert all of that to uh full self driving cars and they really need to be electric because the cost of operation of a gasoline diesel car is much higher than an electric car any robot tax that isn't electric will absolutely not be competitive there's a clause that we put into our cars I think it was about 3 or 4 years ago they can only be used in the Tesla Network yes but it's like the App Store that you can only you can add only add or remove them through the Telsa Network and then Telsa gets a revenue share I guess you could operate a rental car Fleet but I think this this is very unwieldy I I think there will be a phone home thing where if the car gets stuck it'll just phone home to Tesla and ask for a solution things like being pulled over for by a police offer that's easy for us to program in that's not a problem the it will be possible for somebody to take over using the steering wheel at least for some period of time and then probably down the road we'll just cap the steering wheel so there's no steering control we'll just take steering wheel off put a cap on yeah we literally just unbolt the steering wheel and put a cap on where the steering wheel handle currently is I think there'll be a transition period where people will be able to take over and should be able to take over from the r taxi and then once Regulators are comfortable with us not having steering wheel we'll just delete that and for cars that are on the that are in the fleet obviously with the permission of the owner if it's owned by somebody else we would just take the steering wheel off and put a cap where the steering wheel currently attaches in future we the probability of the steering wheel being taken away in the future is 100% consumers will demand it this is not me prescribing a point of view about the world this is me predicting what consumers will demand consumers will demand in the future that people are not allowed to drive these two ton death machines they were amphibians but then pretty much things just become like land creatures they be a little bit of ampian phase I I think it are a mistake we actually had HT maps for a while actually can that because you either need HT maps in which case if anything changes about the environment the car will break down or you don't need HD maps in which case why you're wasting your time during HD Maps the HD Maps thing it like the two main crutches that of that should not be used and will in where be obviously false and foolish are lar and a if you need a Geo fenced area you don't have real self-driving I think we're actually going to want to push a sort of standard range Plus Battery more than our longrange battery because the energy content in the long range pack is is% higher kilowatt hours so essentially you can make a third more cars if you just if they're all sort of standard range Plus instead of the longrange pack so one's like around 50 Kow hours the other ones around 75 Kow hours so we're actually probably going to buy us our sales intentionally towards the small battery in order to have a higher volume of basically want the obvious Max thing is to maximize the number of autonomous units or the number of maximiz the output that will subsequently result in the biggest autonomous lead down the road so we're making doing a number of things in that regard but it's it's just not for today's meeting U the million mile life is basically just about getting the the cycle life of the um the pack to you need basically on the order let's say you've got a basic math if if you got a 250 mile range pack you're going to need 4,000 Cycles so very achievable we already do that with our stationary storage some our stationary Storage Solutions like power pack we're ready to play power pack with 4,000 cycle life capability really fundamental message that consumers should be taking today is that it's financially insane to buy anything other than a Tesla they will be like owning a horse in 3 years fine if you want to own a horse but you should go into it with that expectation if you buy a car that does not have the hardware necessary for full self-driving it is like buying a horse and the only car that has the hardware necessary for full self-driving is a Tesla people should really think about their purchase any other vehicle it's it's basically crazy to buy any other car than Tesla we need to make that convey that argument clearly and we will have to today yeah we talked to Regulators around the world all the time as we introduce additional features like navigate on autopilot we this requires like regulatory approval on a a per jurisdiction basis I think fundamentally Regulators my experience are convinced by data so if you have a massive amount of data that shows that autonomy is safe they listen to it they may take a they may take time to digest the information their process may take a bit bit of time but they have always come to the right conclusion from what I've seen I think like probably yeah like Tesla owned Robo taxis would be in in Dan open areas along with customer vehicles and then as you get to medium and low density areas it would tend to be more that people own the car and occasionally lend it out yeah there are a lot of edge cases in Manhattan and say downtown San Francisco but th those are and there are various stes around the world that that have challenging open environments but we do not expect this to be a significant issue when I say future complete it'll work in downtown San Francisco and downtown Manhattan this year right now ai or neurals are used really for object recognition and we're still basically just using it as still frames so identifying objects and still frames and tying it together in a perception path planning layer thereafter the but what's happening is steadily is that the neural net is eating into the software base more and more and so over time we expect the neural net to do more and more now now from a from a computational cost standpoint there are some things that are very simple for for a and very difficult for neural net and so it probably makes sense to maintain some level of heuristics in the system because they're just computationally a thousand times easier than a neural net a neural net is like a cruise missile and if you're trying to swat a fly just use a fly swatter not a cruise missile so but over time I would effect that it moves really to just training on against video and then video in Car steering and pedals out or basically video in L lateral longitudinal acceleration out almost entirely that's what we're going to use the dojo system for there's no system that can currently do that it's essentially the car is going to do what a human would do you think of a human is like basically uh a camera on a slow Gimbal and it's remarkable that people are able to drive the car in the way that they are cuz if if you know you can't look in all directions at once the car can literally look in all Direction at once with multiple cameras so humans are able to drive just by looking this way looking that way they're actually stuck in their driver's seat they can't really get out of the driver's seat so it's like kind of One camera on a Gimbal and is able to drive a conscientious driver can drive with very high safety the cameras in the cars have a better Vantage Point than than the person so they're like up in the B pillar or at in front of the rearview mirror they've got they've really got a great vantage point so if you're turning onto a road that's got a lot of highspeed traffic you can just do what person does just like grab turn a little bit don't go fully into the road let the camera see what's going on and if things look good and then the rear cameras don't show on any oncoming traffic off you go and if it looks sketchy you can just pull back a little bit just like a person the behavior is like remarkably it starts to become remarkably lifelike it's like quite Eerie actually the car just starts behaving like a person well we publish the accidents per mile every quarter and what we see right now is that a pilot is about twice as safe as a normal normal driver on average and we expect that to increase quite a bit over time like I said in the future it will be consumers will want to Outlaw saying they will succeed nor am I saying I agree with this position but in the future consumers will want to outl people driving their own cars because it is unsafe if you think of like elevators used to be operated on a big lever go up and down the floor and there's like a big relay and you had elevator operators but then periodically they would get tired or drunk or something and then they' turn the lever at the wrong time and sever somebody in a half so now you do not have elevator operators and you it be quite alarming if you went into an elevator that had a big lever that could just move between floors arbitrarily so there's just buttons and in the long term again not a value judgment I'm saying I want the world to be this way I'm saying consumers will most likely demand the people are not allowed to drive cars and Elon a followup can you share with us how much Tesla's spending on autopilot or autonomous technology by order of magnitude on an annual basis thank you it's basically our entire expense structure between now and when the robber taxis are fully deployed throughout the world the sensible thing for us is to maximize rate and drive the company to cash flow neutral once the rubber taxi Fleet is active I would expect to be extremely cash flow positive who is liable for an accident is it Tesla or is it me if the vehicle has an accident and harms probably Tesla it's probably Tesla yeah I think the right thing to do is just make sure there are very few accidents

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Id: iNa62HS--Zg

Length: 30min 16sec (1816 seconds)

Published: Mon Apr 22 2024