Evaluating Child Care and Housing Promises

[Music] the agenda with steve pakin is made possible through generous philanthropic contributions from viewers like you thank you for supporting tvo's journalism affordability for many canadians after a year and a half of pandemic disruption that's the top concern in this election tonight we assess the offerings for improving costs on two big ticket items first party plans for housing and then child care it's tuesday september 14th and that's tonight on the agenda [Music] [Music] right out of the gate all of the parties knew that housing affordability would be a core election issue and that's why it's in all of their platforms let's get some analysis about those plans with in the leslieville area of the provincial capital john pasalis he's the founder president and broker of real osophy realty who crunches real estate data on the move smartly blog in dawn mills there's tim hudak ceo of the ontario real estate association and in the beach sabrina meadow a columnist with the national post and it's great to have john and tim back again sabrina you for the first time let me just before we talk about the subject at hand here i want to do a little in the interest of full disclosure uh aria tim hodak's organization is a sponsor of the agenda we are very pleased to have them as a sponsor because it suggests that they support what we're doing and we're glad about that but i should point out tim hudak was a guest on this program well before his sponsorship he will be a guest on this program well after his sponsorship ends we have him on the program because urea is a big player on this subject and i promise to treat tim with the same benevolent hostility i did when he was ontario pc party leader so everything will be as it once was uh that having been said let's just briefly go through uh the main platforms and then we'll get into some discussion about this so if you would sheldon let's bring up the graphics here the liberals promised to build preserve or repair 1.4 million homes over four years the conservatives promised to build a million homes in three years the ndp say they will build a half a million affordable homes in 10 years and the greens promised 300 000 units of affordable non-market co-op and non-profit housing over the next decade that's what the four main parties have to say on building homes how about on fighting speculation both the liberals and conservatives promised to ban foreign buyers for two years the liberals would also create an anti-flipping tax on properties owned for less than 12 months the ndp is pushing a 20 foreign buyers tax instead of a ban and the greens want a vacant homes tax on foreign corporate residential property owners let's do one more plank first time home buyers such a key demographic here new tax-free first home savings accounts come from the liberals the conservatives are offering to encourage a market for seven to ten year mortgages which they say will offer more stability for first-time buyers and the ndp is offering to reintroduce 30-year mortgages on entry-level homes for first-time home buyers all right that's what the four major parties have on offer and i'm not asking you three to endorse any of the above platforms what i am asking though is what from what you've just heard do you like what will work what will be useful tim start us off um the first prodigy sponsors uh steve thanks for saying that uh despite the fact he used to beat me up in in back in politics days uh the agenda and your work the the top show in canada where please support this public affairs program uh look we we've worked very hard along with our national association the canadian real estate association to help create that next generation of canadian homeowners and that also includes improved rental units so we're really excited because housing affordability is a major plank in each of the major parties platforms and off the top steve the stuff around housing supply that is the core issue we have fallen far behind in creating enough supply to keep up with demand and home ownership is slipping out of reach for hard-working canadians as a result that's top of the list there is more of a focus as well from some of the platforms on rental housing the third i'll put out there is stopping dirty money coming from foreign corrupt officials or criminals snapping up real estate ontario realtors want to make sure that any piece of real estate any property any home is available to canadians who play by the rules not somebody who's laundering money into canada all right understood uh sabrina why don't you go next and tell us what of what you've just heard you think we'll work well i agree with tim that i like what i'm hearing about bans on foreign ownership and addressing investors and speculators i'm highly skeptical of all of the plans and the reason for that is that they're still fueling demand um and as long as you're fueling demand prices are going to increase and just become more unaffordable and whether that's through increased first-time homes buyers programs whether it's through tax incentives whether it's through extending mortgage terms the end result is prices are going to go up and when it comes to the supply side of the equation we've heard this before i mean in 2017 the liberals instituted their national housing plan and they're far behind on where they should be they've built under half the number of homes they've promised so i'm not sure what's going to change this time around especially when i've yet to hear a political candidate acknowledge that we need to see a drop in house prizes for houses to become affordable john your take uh i i mean i i agree both with i mean tim and sabrina on all these issues i mean at the end of the day um you know the federal government's role in the supply side effectively uh is indirect i mean uh you know they they really are trying to introduce policies to try to stimulate more demand and you know they they each party has different policies they're all decent some may be more effective than others i mean one important thing to note is that when we think about supply you know housing starts in canada at our 40-year high right now i mean we haven't seen uh housing starts like this since the 1970s so supply is coming on the market um and when we look at the demand side policies i mean i agree with sabrina i mean a lot of the policies that are being put forward especially the pcs and the ndp are just going to fuel more demand i mean extending amortizations allowing people to borrow more and take on more debt it's just go it seems like a good idea but it's going to fuel demand and actually push prices up even higher all right in which case tim let me come back to you and i'm i'm sure you've looked at the party platforms in more depth than the simple bullet points that we put up there for simplicity's sake so by that account what do you think is missing from the party platforms that you wish had been in there detail uh look uh you use this expression yourself steve you campaign in poetry you govern in prose um the realtors are thrilled that at least these highlights are part of the platform after the election campaign then you know we go to work to twist arms and make sure they carry through in those details to my colleagues comments i think we all agree that supply is the issue more inventory more choice across the spectrum it's a first time home middle class homes rentals and social housing as well for the most vulnerable no doubt about it pleases the aspects of that in all the programs i get what they're saying around demand so i totally get that but here's the issue right now the system is working for those that are connected if you are rich your mom and dad have an enormous bank where they can lend you money the system works okay but if you're a new canadian you're an entrepreneur you're somebody trying to get into the middle class and own a home that great canadian dream you're kind of shut out so we're happy to see in the conservative and new democrat platforms and some degree in the liberal platforms assistance for those who don't have the access to the big money the principal they're making sure that they are appropriately cautious but modernizing the stress test for example not making people renew their mortgage if they've already um sorry go to another stress test and renew their mortgage these are sensible policies that will keep the principle of being thoughtful and long-term investment but open up opportunities wherever you are in the financial spectrum sabrina what's not here that should be more concerned about what is there unlike tim i'm more concerned about stoking demand and the issue for young canadians ones who don't have family money or who may be low income isn't that they can't access more credit and more debt it's that home prices are too high so putting in the programs that are going to make those prices higher um and allow young people and first-time home buyers to take on more debt isn't helpful our housing debt is already at two trillion dollars nationally um and according to international organizations when household debt goes over 80 percent of the country's gdp you're in a danger zone canada's is at over 112 percent right now so anything that increases the ability to take on more debt for longer is not a solution john what's missing yeah i think the one big thing that i would have liked this scene is you know when we're at a we're effectively a crossroads in our housing market in canada where it's unbelievably unaffordable and i really think policymakers should have focused on policies that effectively make it harder for investors to be buying single-family homes at the end of the day in canada one in five homes are bought by investors and the gta it's nearly one in four homes that are bought by investors um and again i mean to tim's point i mean investors are the people who are benefiting i mean they're the ones that probably have their own homes have multiple properties um you know and if our policy makers wants to help people get on the ladder i mean i agree with him it's hard for people who don't have parents cutting them big checks but when you relax the stress test when you lack these policies for all you're not just helping uh people who don't have that that equity from their family or helping everybody so if they wanted to target one group i mean helping helping first-generation home buyers would have been smarter than relaxing credit and you know allowing all buyers to take on more debt well i keep hearing this recurring issue of encouraging demand and tim maybe i can get you to draw upon your political experience with this if if too many of these policy planks are encouraging even more demand in what is already a white hot real estate market why are they doing it it is a huge political issue i mean the canadian dream has been to own a home that's what my grandparents did when they came here from then chuckles back they bought a home they rented out part of it they worked hard saved every buck they wanted some security and some stability that remains a part of what many people want to do so steve we've done a lot of research through the ontario real estate association folks watching the agenda can go to urea.com to see it but you will see not only for millennials and the parents who love them dearly but want to see them get a place of the run and get out of the house this is a driver of an issue so if the sweet spot to win this election is going to be the greater toronto hamilton area and the lower mainland of vancouver then you cannot you cannot blame the parties to try to tap into that vote but it's also a theme that's very important and that is helping create that next generation who can get the keys of the home and say i got a place to call sabrina tim just in fact echoed what everybody assumes to be true which is that everybody wants to be a homeowner someday it is a great canadian dream i gather you're a tenant though is that right you rent yes i'm a renter so does that speak for you do you want to be a homeowner someday it does i'd love to be i'm a typical millennial where i was raised with the dream of homeownership and i was raised with the idea that if you work hard and you secure a certain type of job you should be able to afford a home and you can't these days and quite frankly it's a struggle to afford rent in toronto because we've allowed our housing crisis to get to a point where it's not just an ownership crisis it's also a rental crisis and young people are spending ever increasing amounts of their paycheck on housing and the problem with that is it doesn't just affect young people it affects the entire economy because we're diverting investment from other more productive areas especially coming out of kobe we should be out spending our money at small businesses at restaurants instead all that is just going to our landlord's bank accounts or to the banks if we do have a mortgage and that's why it's important that we just don't allow access to more debt do you think any of the plans that we've talked about here so far and that you guys have analyzed will get you closer to eventually being able to afford that first time home as it stands i hate to say it but no how do you feel about that angry um and that's what you're seeing among many young people that's why cost of living is by far the top issue for voters under 40 in this election uh housing affordability is the top issue for voters in the gta and there's a lot of frustration out there and we're not seeing that echoed as far as i can tell by any politicians um instead we're seeing still a lot of pandering to homeowners we're seeing a lot of platitudes and vague promises um and we really need to see more this is a crisis this is a serious shortage um and it doesn't seem like anyone in power is taking it seriously all right let me follow up with john on that all the parties i have on offer some kinds of ideas to help first-time buyers get into the market but if you're helping more people get into an already white-hot market therefore increasing demand how exactly does that help with house prices john well i mean it's exactly the point i mean it doesn't it actually drives house prices further i mean you know the the all the parties are trying to sort of walk this tightrope they obviously don't want to do anything that's going to have a negative impact on the housing market because the majority of canadians are home owners on the other hand they want to make it look like they're doing as much as possible to help first-time buyers get into the market but the more you do to help first-time hours the more money you give them the more debt you allow them to take on you know it might help that first round of buyers but ultimately it just pushes house prices up further uh and i think that's the the challenge that that we're in right now and i think that's why a lot of a lot of the younger people that we speak with who are looking at these policies are not optimistic that they're going to have any real impact on house prices uh in the near term all right tim let me try sorry yeah go ahead tim a lot of cynicism here and i and i get it right but this is the most we've ever seen in a federal um campaign ever when it comes to housing affordabilities and i congratulate the leaders on on doing all that thrilled number ideas are on the table i would take a little bit of upward pressure on prices if you can level the playing field and allow those who are new canadians entrepreneurs uh people who don't have access to bank mum and dad access to the market but fundamentally let's not forget it is around supply we are seeing one million homes is the goal of the conservative need about 80 000 new homes a year in ontario so it's pretty good number 1.4 million to liberals which is new homes and refurbished 500 000 the ndp that is the core issue the last planet home ownership not only is it part of the dream aspirational but we can demonstrate quite clearly that homeowners tend to give back to their community their volunteerism levels are higher the kids do better in school and get better jobs health outcomes are stronger there is an enormous spin-off of social benefit from home ownership as well and that's reason enough to try to get as many people as possible into homes i guess agreed okay all right while you've got the floor let me follow up with uh with you tim on this the liberals are pitching something called a home buyer's bill of rights part of which would ban blind bidding as part of that bill of rights what do you think of that so we don't like that let me tell you why i mean part of our job is to highlight the positive aspects of their platform when it comes to affordability of homes we've done that but also to warn people of ideas that are going to actually drive prices uh higher so if you don't have the traditional offer process which protects privacy it becomes an auction in australia and new zealand auctions are not mandated but they're pretty common and the reason why is homeowners like them because auction fever develops people want to beat the person next to them and they over bid for homes uh certain new zealanders are facing similar price appreciation as we are in canada the core issue is not enough supply there just like here but i don't think changing the way that you do musical chairs is going to address the problem it's the lack of chairs of people to find you need to concentrate on supply this we worry will actually drive prices higher in the marketplace sabrina what's your take on the banning of blind bidding i support it fully um we do have similar issues to australia and new zealand but that comes to things like the speculation in the market it comes down to foreign speculation in particular and when it comes to blind bidding as far as i can tell prices would only go down there's no other item that you buy and you can't tell what other people are trying to purchase it for um and ultimately when we're seeing bids come in you know hundreds of thousands of dollars more over the next competing bid that's raising that one homes price higher which then raises the values of all the homes around it and we get caught in the cycle where the values are just spiraling ever higher and that's exactly what we need to stop john i wonder if you know all of the well-intentioned good-faith efforts by all of the political parties and all of the special interest groups around this issue just just are not nearly up to the task of dealing with a supercharged overheated um white hot real estate market i mean is it that seems to be the case tell me i'm wrong no i i mean i think you are a hundred percent right and and i think the challenge is that you know at the federal level i mean historically most of the levers that federal policy makers used to to pull were on the demand side you know when we look at the supply side uh you know most of the constraints on supply are at the municipal and provincial level so everything that the federal policy makers are trying to do on the supply side these are very very long games you know these might stimulate supply five to ten years from now they're not going to have an immediate impact whereas the demand side policies have an immediate impact and i think that's the challenge right now and especially in canada when you know our population is growing at a much faster rate than our ability to build homes that's just going to fuel higher house prices in the future well again tim i'm going to follow up on that raising the issue of how much control and or influence can any federal government truly have over the market conditions we find ourselves in third place right most impact is going to be the provincial level followed by municipalities nationally will have the least impact on supply but they can still make an effort i'll give you a couple of examples so some of the platforms talk about investing in infrastructure particularly transportation infrastructure but as a carrot approach they'll say to municipalities if you increase density around transit stations for example a great policy for affordable living then you'll be higher on the list for this infrastructure so they can make a difference there the conservative party platform has a rollover so if you invest in rental housing and you sell it you won't pay the capital gains tax if you reinvest in new and enhanced rental housing great the new democrat platform talks about waiving the gst or sorry the hst on new rental housing so they can have an impact in that area steve even though it's third it's still worth pushing all right let's go back to first then and in that resp in that regard sabrina i'm gonna quote steve clark the ontario minister of housing tim hudak says number one the province is number one when it comes to the influence over housing here's the quote from his article writing in the toronto sun toronto consistently under zones for density where they need it and councillors continue to call for increased affordability but they often don't support more density at least not in their wards if toronto is serious about tackling housing affordability they need to champion the construction of new housing and support opportunities for densification where possible uh okay you've looked at this sabrina is the minister on to something there um the federal government can't address this alone it has to be addressed by all levels of government and especially municipalities because that quote is exactly right we have a lot of zoning issues especially in toronto where we have huge swaths of land that have single-family detached homes i live in one of those neighborhoods the beach um it's it looks like you're in a suburb but you're really in what should be the downtown core and anytime there's a new proposal for a condo even if that condo's only six seven stories there is just so much activism that comes out against it so if people want affordable housing they have to support it being built in their neighborhoods and we need to really see municipal politicians pushing for that um and explaining to their constituents why it's so important well tim that would take a level of political courage and i'm not taking a swipe at them here but you're you're essentially you know putting a target on your back against the people who currently live in the neighborhood in the hopes of helping those who don't live in the neighborhood what politicians going to do that not too many like i get the incentive municipal politicians you phrased it well they're more concerned with voters who live there today than voters who are going to move in that they don't know yet and therefore don't vote so you do need the province to take again a carrot and stick approach here i think rewarding municipalities that will encourage affordable homeownership and rentals by moving further up the list when it comes to infrastructure funding every provincial every federal budget will have infrastructure funding reward those who are bringing homes people can afford to market ultimately you also need sticks if they're not doing so if they're not keeping up with provincial standards you do need tools like minnesota zoning orders to push those matters they should be last resort but unless we have that carrot and stick approach we're going to be spinning our wheels we recently did a study at area that showed that almost half of canadians 45 and under are considering moving to another province just because of home affordability so i'd encourage the province to use the approach i just laid out all right to that end john tell me whether you think the unusually historically low interest rates that we've been i guess quote unquote enjoying for the last many years what part does that play in what we're talking about tonight you know it's it's quite interesting i mean it definitely plays a a significant role not not as much as you would think because at the end of the day you know home buyers are qualifying at this stress test rate which we've talked about which is significantly higher than the interest rate they're paying so in terms of their ability to take on much more debt you know it's not they're not actually benefiting from the low interest rate they benefited once they bought the home and their rates are lower i'd say the people who are probably um you know driving the the sort of the low interest game a lot are probably investors who uh who are really benefiting from low rates and the cash flow on their properties and can kind of benefit uh on the profit i think those investors probably are really driving a lot of demand in some markets and benefiting from ultra low interest rates right now in which case do you think the finance minister whoever that is after election day ought to try to convince the governor of the bank of canada to raise interest rates well no i don't think so because i mean at the end of the day the bank of canada is concerned about the entire economy and you know the way they tried to mitigate uh and offset sort of the ultra low rates and not you know not encouraging higher household debt is through the stress test so we don't necessarily need that i mean we have the stress test which ultimately uh is putting a cap on how much homeowners and even investors can actually can borrow today sabrina would higher interest rates cool off the housing market i believe it would the low rates are just encouraging the financialization of the housing market and it's benefiting people who already have assets who already have capital for example either investors or current homeowners who are taking advantage to leverage that and take on a second home perhaps or an investment property or maybe many more investment properties the problem for first time home but buyers is we can't come up with the down payment to begin with so the interest rates when they're low don't help us they just make affordability more out of reach tim what's the industry's view on the advisability of raising interest rates um it's not going to help new homeowners get into the market that is around supply and affordability yeah you're right you could put the housing market to huge halts but who's going to have the greater ability or sort of the greatest challenge of higher interest rates it's going to be first-time home buyers steve can i throw one more thing on the table in terms of innovative ideas and platforms around supply please so the the liberal party has a really good idea to convert commercial space into housing so it's already built we think we'll see a downsizing of that footprint because of covet and work from home so their policies help convert some of that to housing it's already built you can move quickly there similarly the conservative party is a platform commitment of 15 percent of federal land that they have is underutilized to put towards housing the new democrats want to change mortgage rules to allow co-ownership of homes so all three have some new ideas that can actually make an impact pretty quickly in the housing market for first-time buyers okay in our remaining moments here let me just put one final overarching issue on the table here which is and i think our numbers are right about this about two-thirds of the families in this country maybe a little more live in a home that they own or that the bank owns maybe but you get my drift the parties all say during this election campaign that they want to make homes more affordable how does a politician campaign for that when it effectively goes against the financial interests of two-thirds of canadians sabrina you first i'd argue it doesn't go against their financial interest in the long run short term perhaps but ultimately our economy is at stake here there's only so far you can push the housing bubble up before it bursts and eventually everyone has to pay for it um also like i've mentioned before we're diverting money from more productive sectors of the economy which seeing their children have to move hours away or out of the province or even out of the country that takes a social toll on families as well so i would say there's a lot at stake even for people who own own homes currently a minute to go let me give 30 seconds to john 30 seconds to tim go ahead john i mean really i mean the best thing that the government can do and we could expect for is at least them try to attempt to stall this rapid appreciation in house prices to allow supply to catch up to allow incomes to catch up you know no government wants to see house prices fall but at least they need to ease up on demand and population growth to allow you know supply and incomes to catch up to these prices last word to tim yeah third world canadian politics you touch housing the biggest savings for the middle class and that is radioactive it really is i think steve adding enough supply to control the increase of housing prices and make sure that incomes can catch up and the homeownership rate will increase but not driving prices down for those that currently have homes well as all things in life and politics we shall see i want to thank tim hudak john posales sabrina meadow for joining us on the agenda tonight be well everybody and remember as they say in cook county chicago on monday vote early vote often thanks for joining us tonight thank you thank you thank you [Music] for families with small children child care could well be the make or break issue determining how they vote next week with us on the choices on offer we welcome in the nation's capital economist armenia al-nisian atkinson fellow on the future of workers and newly minted columnist for the toronto star congrats on that armen and andrea marozzik is here senior fellow with the independent think tank cardis and andrea it's been too long since you've been on our program so we're delighted to welcome you back as well i'm just going to take a minute here and beg your indulgence to read some of the planks in the three main party platforms dealing with child care so sheldon if you would let's go with this and here's where the ndp and the liberals basically said they are in favor of the 10 per day universal child care by the year 2026 average fees cutting in half by the end of 2022 for all families the cost on this about 30 billion dollars over five years to set up the program and then eight billion dollars per year after that the conservatives conversely have a different approach they would repeal the child care agreements including for provinces which have already signed deals with the federal government that's basically alberta and ontario and new brunswick who have not the other seven provinces have and one territory has they would replace the child care expense deduction with a refundable tax credit for families reaching up to six thousand dollars per year for the lowest income families and the costs of their program run to about 2.3 billion dollars per year okay let's uh i mean i know what both of you are going to say in answer to this first question but let's get your positions on the record anyway andrea which is the preferable approach in your review um we prefer anything that recognizes a real diversity of care and the types of care options that parents are choosing so child care is the care of a child no matter who does it and as a result there is a greater diversity in the refundable tax credit proposal it also helps lower income people more the main problem i see with national daycare of any kind is that while it sounds nice and certainly any parent would jump at the chance to pay a lot less for child care it can't possibly deliver what it says it will and so there's a lot of agreement actually across the spectrum that in the short to medium term we'll have uh wait lists and shortages of child care should we choose to go down that path okay armen your view there is a lot of agreement that we will have a lot of shortages and waitlists should we go down that path or the path of tax credits because the tax credits do nothing to add supply um and with respect to poorer families getting more help through the tax credit in the version that the conservatives have presented that is true but only about 0.1 percent of families do get more help under the liberal slash ndp endorsed plan uh poorer families get more uh uh economic support and there is a plan that is not a cookie-cutter plan that is the the eight provinces and terror the one territory they're designed um have each got their own priorities on how to improve both the quantity and quality of care and it is definitely not just quantity of care about quality of care we are looking to improve we did not build a health care system or a public education system without it being regulated and we need to do the same for the social revolution that has taken place amongst young families with kids we went from the minority of parents both parents working to the majority of both parents working without a public policy response in two generations it's time to act okay quick follow-up with you our mean do you have you crunched the numbers enough to be able to tell us how much the average family would save under the liberal ndp endorsed proposal well uh the conservatives did slash their own numbers for us telling us that the maximum return on tax credits would be six thousand dollars so you have to pay up front but you would get up to six thousand dollars back if you are a poor enough family their own measures indicate that that would uh because it's basically based on the ontario tax credit plan that would then get um nationalized and that would affect less than one percent of families with kids uh so it's not going to bring much help when it get when it's the most generous it's not going to bring much help to the lowest families plus it doesn't add any more spaces it's just helping families that already have care when it comes to the liberal plan uh if you are using infant daycare in toronto instead of six thousand dollars you could be saving over ten thousand dollars once we get to the ten dollars a day but even in the period till the end of 2022 which is when you're cutting your fees in half you're very close to that six thousand dollar mark that the uh the conservatives promised but child care costs vary dramatically across the country so to bring it down to a uniform average ten dollars a day for all age groups of preschoolers is going to be more difficult in some jurisdictions than others so it really depends on where you live and whether you've got an infant or a preschooler a toddler or a preschooler or a school-aged child what kind of help you're going to get okay let me get andrea to offer her view on how she has crunched the numbers and how the plan she prefers uh would help parents and buy how much so first of all it's not true that refundable refundable tax credits don't create spaces we do have research suggesting that they do and so we actually have proof of that within canada when quebec created their provincial day care system it created the expected shortages by eradicating other forms of care you know it just makes sense that if you choose to fund only one form of care licensed spaces then other forms of care will not be able to compete and that's precisely what happened in quebec and what did they do to bring supply back they created a refund a tax credit sorry um this tax credit could just as well be based on the quebec model um of of how they got that care to come back so again it's a very limited view of child care that those who support national daycare have i believe that child care is the care of a child no matter who does it doesn't have to be a professional paid it could be families and it can be home-based unlicensed daycares there's a a lot of care that's happening that we just ignore if we exclusively look to the licensed system and i'm really concerned about steamrolling the existing ecosystem of care finding ourselves in a crisis that we haven't seen before in canada for the shortages that it will create now we're really getting to the nub of the disagreement between you two right now which is good so i think we should let's just focus on this a little bit more armen you you've heard the suggestion from andrea that that while you prefer a proposal that creates new spaces and and allows parents a more affordable option than currently exists if they want that option your plan doesn't take into account or the plan you endorse doesn't take into account the other options for example stay-at-home parents who would like to take care of their child at home and still recognize some kind of tax advantage for doing so could you speak to that we do have tax advantages for parents that choose to stay at home we do also have the canada child benefit which has been doubled by every single conservative or liberal government that has come into power at the federal level since 1993 we've poured billions upon billions of dollars to support families to stay at home and take care of their kids but somewhere around the 80s young families with kids went from 35 percent with only one parent working to over some over three quarters so from just a bit over a third of um both parents working in families raising kids to three quarters of both parents working we need more help we have not created spaces it is incorrect to say that the existing plan that has been signed by seven provinces in one territory and was being negotiated by ontario as well which would have stood to receive 11 billion dollars it is unfair to say and incorrect to say that it would ignore what exists it keeps in place what exists it simply says we need to add capacity and when we add capacity using the taxpayers dollar we don't do it by not planning the quality and quantity and location of care we need so it requires planning just like building a hospital just like building a school we need to plan spaces or there is no bona fide choice for parents particularly low-income parents who face the biggest child care deserts and have to scramble we've been scrambling for 50 years as parents of children it's time to stop scrambling and start maximizing the potential of both parents and children by providing good quality care to say that it's unlicensed and unregulated and that makes it great that's nonsense you wouldn't do that for your high school student you wouldn't think that unregulated teachers for your high school student would be excess accessible that your frail grandmother being in a long-term care facility should have no standards of care no enforceable regulations on how that care is provided and we certainly wouldn't do it in hospitals when we talk about the care economy we need to set standards in place there will be always people that operate outside of that nobody's taking care away from them but when you present parents with the choice of having high quality affordable licensed care that's what they will run not walk to okay andrew you want to come back on that yeah parents need to choose the quality they are the parents are the ones who choose the quality and i say that i stand in favor of all the different options that parents are are using could be licensed centers could be unlicensed care in homes could be a variety of other cares care forms i happen to be the mom of a two-year-old right now using a myriad of different forms all at the same time and weaving together a really rich tapestry of care that i have decided for our family is the best quality that we can possibly get it is patronizing frankly to suggest that families who are doing that are not able to discern what is quality and something i've said before and i'll say here now is that regardless of who's providing the care if it's a public license center parents need to be going in there you need to be there need to be markers of what's quality and that needs to be easily discernable to parents at all points in time the child care deserts only come up when you're only measuring licensed care so again that's a frustration because i for example brampton is apparently a desert but oakville is an oasis so you've got wealthy oakville where apparently they wanted that type of care and they built it and brampton has other forms of care there's a high portion of south asians and immigrants from different communities who have different values around child care these values need to be recognized and they need to be accepted and not judged as being inferior in favor of another another system that as i've mentioned already is unlikely to deliver the spaces even for those parents who really want to use them can i do quick follow-up with you here now andrea and that is can you speak to the criticism one hears that the conservative plan will cost billions of dollars and won't actually create any new spaces we've heard that criticism even in this discussion here can you speak to that and and why the conservative option would be preferable given that it would cost billions and not create new spaces well on the cost you're looking at um it's not even the same sphere of of of cost a national daycare system to be good quality and truly universal would need to be funded at a very much higher level than what it the federal government is currently offering we did an extensive costing assessment of what national day care in canada would truly cost and a low quality system would came in at 17 billion dollars annually and then using better ratios so the number of children per adult rang in at over 36 billion dollars annually so when we look at the budgets um of course if you look at the federal allocation of funds um they are only giving a certain amount in ontario they would probably need to spend upwards of nine billion dollars annually to get a system for just the province of ontario so the fact that ontario hasn't signed their right to be cautious unless the billions from the feds come in at a very flex in a very flexible way ontario risks eradicating all those other forms of care that parents are already using and then also needing to cough up nine billion dollars annually so a refundable tax credit costs money yes research there are studies suggesting it creates spaces and that's exactly what it did in quebec the fact that my opponents on this don't like the spaces it creates um is something that that i i think they should answer to not not me well okay do you want to answer to that army oh where to start there's a like a cornucopia of things that can be responded to in that answer so the reason why the federal government is not doing the whole nine yards according to andrea's calculations is because the federal government is catching up to where the provinces are at they want to become an equal player in an in an area of public policy that has not been addressed by any federal government for 50 years and canada came in in last dead last place in an oecd study on how do how does governments in in its entire entirety deal with child care issues in the oecd countries that's 27 countries so we've got nothing to brag about thus far and having the federal government want to weigh in to help add space i'm just going to underscore again andrea is incorrect in saying that any of the federal plans would get rid of spaces all they're doing is adding spaces but when they add spaces they're not going to be adding unlicensed spaces because they want to see as all taxpayers should what are we getting for our money which requires some form of regulation so you can get some kind of report back from it uh so i i would think that anybody that's interested in a good use of public dollars should uh actually love love that uh i want to remind people that um the child care deserts in brampton are not there because the families in brampton have different values than the families in oakville uh it's because they can't afford the quality of care that it costs to provide high quality licensed care and so that's part of what this federal plan is about in the provinces that have signed deals each province has said where they wish to prioritize the expansion of space quebec's um premier le go campaigned in 2018 on bringing full day junior kindergarten to the province ontario is the leader in that not because of premier doug ford but because of premier zoltan mcginty and wynn but we are the leader in offering free to to the parent free uh a full day junior came to kindergarten if parents wish to send their four-year-olds there and 90 over 90 percent of families do wish to do that all right let me jump in for a second in the summer time and it doesn't work uh beyond three o'clock in the afternoon and that's why parents like andrea have to do these patchworks of different types of systems and i completely agree we need a huge variety of care but when the public taxpayer pays for the expansion of a system it should not be unregulated we should be able to have a say in the quality and the quantity and location of that care andrea is it your view though that that the current federal liberal government's plan incentivizes i don't know inappropriately or unfairly one aspect of child care over others and that's what you object to if i got that right absolutely yeah and i don't find that our mean is adequately responding to what happened in quebec there's definitely evidence that they created their provincial system there and then other forms of care fell by the wayside we have that evidence incidentally in canada already so when the federal budget was announced and money was going to be put into licensed care one form of care roughly 30 percent of kids under six are in that form again i have no problem with that form of care i think we need that along with other types but the preferential funding of one form of care it's kind of economics 101 that then suddenly the other providers who can't are not able to offer 10 a day daycare um they either exit the business um or they struggle to compete and i got several emails on that note from providers in british columbia and you know british columbia is further along in their path to 10 a day care so um it's it's not an easy thing to say it's an easy thing to to say ten dollar day daycare but the devil in the is in the details on how it gets enacted and i don't see a way around that um the and the patchwork of care that people weave together within their families is something that is desired so if you ask parents it's not affordability is an issue in child care hear me when i say that but it's not the first issue so polls and research suggests that location is a big issue for parents and then the quality of care and the provider and who's providing care is also more important to parents than affordability alone so affordability is one factor among many but saying you're going to offer 10 day day care and then subsequently not offering it and eradicating other forms of care is a very real possibility in canada nobody is eradicating any form of care with the 10 a day child care system i don't know why you keep saying this there's just no evidence that that is part of anybody's that's what happened provinces including the provinces that accepted the deals nobody's taking anything away you just cannot add unlicensed care number one number two in the quebec story yes uh number two adding uh coming down to what was originally five dollars a day that was eight dollars and fifty cents a day did create spaces because darn right you're gonna create demand but didn't create enough license spaces that's the reason why the quebec system sucks as much as it does and that's why the quebec government has been talking about full-day kindergarten more uh santro deputies all of them are licensed and regulated forms of care because they recognize the quality issue number three andrea if affordability isn't on the top of the list why are you talking about a tax credit if location and quality are at the top of it why aren't we talking about how we can plan for the best availability accessibility and quality of care for our youngest learners and most vulnerable citizens why would you accept that caregivers don't that caregivers who are not your parents not your grandparents should not have some kind of standards of care and qualifications to take care of your youngest it's just incomprehensible to me for somebody who values so much the quality of life for young families and for children don't focus on tax credits okay let's get a response to that well i'm glad we have agreement on a quebec system being crappy and the reality is that 10 20 years later now there still are not enough of those license spaces which is exactly my point and i think that parents need to be aware of that that 20 years down the road from launching this canada-wide system we're still going to be seeking out more license spaces the wait list will remain the auditor general and quebec has reported very recently that there are wait lists and there are not enough spaces so i think that just makes my point for me that we are embarking on something that is uh rife with problems and um i definitely disagree on the nature of it eradicating care when i have emails in my inbox from providers saying that they are going to exit the industry knowing they're not going to get any of the money from the government again parents are the arbiters of what constitutes good care for them and they can do it and i think we can give them tools to do it the family is a huge part of this story in fact i'd argue it's the whole story and when we do child development and child care right we're going to be having a higher level of involvement of families and parents in whatever form of care they choose i i'm happy to be learning these new technical child care terms such as sucks and crappy these are very helpful to me to see what's going on here we've got a couple of minutes left and armen let me try this out with you you know this is an expensive issue to be sure and unlike hospitals which people will use from cradle to grave this is one of those issues that's very important to obviously parents but for a relatively short period of time in their lives that they are parents and and of course there are a whole bunch of people out there who don't have kids at all so this may not be an issue for them at all and there are other people i think like andrea and those who agree with her uh who who think that the way the approach you want to take doesn't take into account the sacrifices that they make to stay home with their children and forego whatever income is involved in that i guess my question for you is how would you convince those who are skeptical about this kind of outlay that it's worth doing um i will start with families that are able to keep one parent home less than 20 percent of all families with young children god bless you if you can do it there's 70 over 80 of young families with children who cannot or are not staying at home i will remind you that hasn't changed basically in the last 15 years i will remind you that child care is the equivalent of a mortgage and most young families over over half of our preschoolers live in seven cities and those are the seven cities where the cost of housing has soared people have to work to live as a family i think it's great if you can take care of your family nobody's trying to stop you from doing that we have poured money into the child benefits to be able to help parents make that choice now it's time to help parents make the choice of being able to work and deploy their human capital without it actually breaking the bank child care costs in many big cities are the equivalent of another mortgage and we have no choice for that we have no you know systematic approach to make child care and high quality child care affordable and i will finish by saying does it like even if you don't like kids much less have them it will make a difference to you because what it will do is permit you know people love to say businesses create jobs it's not businesses that create jobs it's customers so if you're permitting young families who are the biggest uh spending block uh in society and society's economy runs on 57 of the economy runs on household spending families with young kids are the biggest spending block there if you permit the people who do want to work to work as they can because child care is not a bottleneck for them then you you as a person who doesn't like children or doesn't have children will be benefiting from more customers and the economy as a whole will be better but wait there's more the last thing i will raise is that when we provide high quality child care to our earl our youngest learners it's a pedagogy you don't fall off the turnip truck knowing how to take advantage of the fact that our brains are hardwired from ages 0 to 5 before we enter school so if we ensure that every child is learning ready when they enter school and learning supported as they go through school we're going to maximize their learning potential and we're going to maximize their earning potential it's good for us as individuals it's good for us as society both today and tomorrow for our economic and our social uh potential i it's the slam dunk plus it pays for itself according to the data in quebec so like i don't know why we wouldn't be doing this andrea i'll give you the last word so um the research on child outcomes in quebec is very poor um we agree that that's not the best system it is unfortunately this system that the federal government is modeling theirs after what we see in the research is that targeting um some families who are disadvantaged can benefit from early learning programs but that's not the majority and so the need for a universal so-called system uh isn't something that we see across the board and wouldn't be beneficial to all families um 47 of ontario kids are cared for by their parents and that's a significant portion of care that is ignored when we fund licensed sector spaces so i feel um like again the family needs to be at the forefront of our discussions of child care child care needs to be woven into a cohesive family policy it's not just refundable tax credits no but developmentally children of that age are not the same as going to public school in grade one or two or three i think that there are principles and factors that matter more than pedagogical approaches allowing their development to unfold attachment to key caregivers etc fortunately everybody on this panel wants high quality child care but when child care is the care of a child no matter who does it and parents are making different choices then we need to strengthen their ability to provide high quality care in the in the type of care that they prefer for their families which isn't um licensed center spaces across the board is only that for a minority of parents i want to thank andrea marazzi and armenia al-nisian for so eloquently and passionately defending their respective positions on this subject this is the last word for this conversation but surely the last not the last word on this issue thank you for joining us on tvo tonight thank you thank you [Music] and that is the agenda for tuesday september 14 2021. just this note before we go if you are looking for more of our election coverage we've gathered all of it in one place for easy access we've got a special website for this go to tvo.org forward slash federal election 2021 you'll find everything from agenda segments to articles including from yours truly to our podcasts and our ontario hubs reports once again that's tvo.org federal election 2021. now polls show that reconciliation and canada's way forward with indigenous peoples matters to voters tomorrow we'll assess how well this election is addressing those concerns with less than a week to go until e-day i'm steve pakin thanks for watching tvo for joining us online at tvo.org and we'll see you again tomorrow [Music] the agenda with steve pakin is made possible through generous philanthropic contributions from viewers like you thank you for supporting tvo's journalism the agenda is always on to catch up on conversations from this week or any week visit our website tvo.org slash the agenda or our youtube page at youtube.com the agenda it's all there for whenever you want to watch [Music] you're not afraid of anything what would i be afraid of okay zombies looking for work can be daunting i am here for my interview especially during a pandemic it's a hard time for everyone it's kind of scary and especially for these 12 unique people i have asperger's and adhd i'm visually impaired on the autism spectrum that's just who i am see disability become ability my dream is to be a model i would love to have a job and customer service i wish to be a voice actor okay okay expect the unexpected with austin and it's that diversity that brings innovation because it's not just about getting a job it's life so i can be independent it probably started i got a job i'm finally a working staff we're all on a journey right now and we make a difference one person at a time employable me begins next on tvl destination northern ontario is a proud supporter of tvo visit www.northernontario.travel to explore the region kayla was driving they were stopped at a checkpoint and taken prisoner jim had totally disappeared we had no information what can you do when your loved ones are kidnapped by terrorists no one knew a lot about who isis was they wanted a hundred million euro follow ordinary people under extraordinary circumstances finding kayla is the key it's very terrifying here this compound is now full of taliban islam and what happens when their worst fears are realized breaking news tonight an american journalist has been beheaded by isis terrorists and find out if justice is possible but these are difficult crimes to investigate no one has access to the crime scene so somebody's got the answers i do want to confront these men who beheaded a friend of mine in the face of terror continues thursday at nine on tvo there is no handbook for incoming first ladies a six-part series featuring the women who helped lead america women's rights are human rights once and for all the trolling was unlike anything any first lady had faced before she didn't blink our motto is when they go low we go high i'm afraid i did some things

Channel: The Agenda with Steve Paikin

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Keywords: Agenda, Canada, current affairs, Nam Kiwanuka, News, Ontario, Ontario politics, politics, Steve Paikin, The Agenda, TVO, Queen’s Park

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Length: 59min 23sec (3563 seconds)

Published: Tue Sep 14 2021