Dr. Gilbert Doctorow : Putin’s Next Moves

[Music] [Music] hi everyone Judge Andrew Nal tenno here for judging Freedom today is Thursday July 11th 2024 Professor Gilbert Dr o joins us now Professor Doo a pleasure of course my friend thank you for all the time uh that you spend uh with us uh as we speak maybe it's a little early in Washington DC but certainly yesterday and probably later on today uh we have heard a lot of a saber rattling uh from uh NATO uh I'm going to play you one or two of the more extreme uh uh Rattlers and that happens to be the president of the United States so here is President Biden on uh Wednesday uh excuse me on Tuesday saying that uh did you know there are 100,000 US troops in Europe and they're ready to go cut number six he before Russia bombs are fall in Ukraine the alliance active I ordered the US reinforcements at NATO's Eastern flank more troops more aircraft more capabilities and now the United States has more than one 100,000 troops in the continent of Europe for what purpose does the UN do you think the United States has 100,000 troops on the continent of Europe given what's happening in Ukraine is this a a trip wire well I think it's to intimidate the Russians and the Russians are looking at these numbers uh with um increased frequency on their their television broadcasts exactly going over uh what they see in in American uh academic papers and government releases regarding NATO's full capabilities in number of tanks and number of servicemen and so forth so this particular American um number uh will be followed very closely by them uh what is it a trip wire well it's a rather rather big trip wire you can stumble on that all right uh how prepared these people are the servicemen are to engage in combat uh that is an interesting subject to investigate but I don't have any any data in front of me surely uh the Russians know exactly where these troops are Poland Romania Germany I don't know where else they would be but I would imagine the Russians know exactly where they are and the Russians know exactly what offensive Weaponry is available to them yes that's probably true the the real issue and this this is something that's debated within Russia it's been discussed on talk uh in in the the states and programs like your own uh that is um the the abil the Readiness of the Russians to respond in a forceful way to these mounting pressures and threats from the United States and others and uh this is a this critical issue is Mr Putin the right man is and the horses for courses at this particular moment of existential threat is his uh diplomatic civilized um religiously motivated uh conduct of Russian military and foreign policy appropriate to the threat that's an open question is is he under pressure uh from those on the right of him and I I don't even know if right and left means what it used to mean when you and I first began studying this but you know what I'm talking about from hardliners from Hawks well being more aggressive you heard what Dimitri Medvedev said yesterday I I think the med you is sometimes the the good guy the bad guy to Putin's good guy I don't I don't know what what is your analysis there's more than one bad guy to Putin's good guy and to put in proper context your remarks about what is right and what is left certainly among the most um uh the most forthright um spokes people for a Hardline uh on on the west uh is the Communist Party of of the Russian Federation so we want to call them the right or the left that's that's that's optional but the point is there are nationalists uh who are very dissatisfied with Mr Putin's conduct and who are genuinely fearful that it is being misread and can lead to uh uh to tragedy uh misread in the West B is as as weakness and indecisiveness and uh inability to act uh in a proactive way uh to prevent escalation we hear on on American television we' hear from the state department that the Russians are escalating but the what you have just described uh in the uh all of the the presentations at the NATO Summit here in in Washington U indicates that the the real escalation is coming out of Washington the discussion of the f-16s it it sounds like this summer we are in the summer so it means that uh that um Holland and Denmark have already dispatched F-16 somewhere it also is clear that there are not enough Ukrainian trained pilots to fly those planes which means they will be uh NATO Pilots uh wearing Ukrainian uniforms so we are headed into a very dangerous um conflict between Russia and and NATO would any of those NATO Pilots wearing Ukrainian uni forms be Americans it's reasonable to assume so but not necessarily but American um Air Force officers trained to uh fly and use f-16s and that training is very expensive and it takes at least a year beyond their regular training would Dawn the uniform of a foreign country I I am not prepared to to confirm that that who exactly will be uh in those in those cockpits uh we don't know but uh that they will be uh reporting to Nato in one way or another and that they are not ukrainians that is a high a high probability however the F-16 issue is not the only very Troublesome uh point to have come out of the discussions going on in Washington uh I understand that that either yesterday or today there will be discussion of America's dispatch of Tomahawk uh medium range cruise missiles now these missiles have an 18800 kmet range uh that is on the I can tell you that Russian um television the Sol ofor program that's widely watched that's a panel show talk show uh last night was suggesting that the United States is shipping these tomahawks to Ukraine they show put up on the screen maps showing the the range of of tomahawks assuming they were launched from Ukraine and going well past Moscow that's to say the whole the whole of European Russia would be subject to to attack and potentially to nuclear attack in these in these missiles I don't know how correct the information that reach solov was I have my doubts about it the United States the reports that I've seen coming out of western western news suggest that the delivery of tomahawks is scheduled for 2026 not for the immediate days and one of the factors is the um the adaptation of the tomahawks to landbased use since they are normally they are ship based uh it is also an issue that's closely related to another topic that has been in the Russian news for several years now that is the convertibility of the supposedly defensive um anti- ballistic missile bases that the United States has built in Poland and Romania that they are convertible to use by exactly by tomahawks so these questions are interrelated but they are very very troubling and I I can tell you I put on the table as as an unresolved issue where was Mr solv off well informed last night is this really something to worry about because it's it's just a hair's breath away from World War I refresh my memory please on who a saloia is a Sal um he he is a uh he's the dean of Russian journalists or at least of the Moscow journalist Society I'm not sure if it's a national Society uh he is in the very close circle at the top of news presenters and at Russian State television very close to to uh the the head of of of news Mr kof um and he has interviewed Putin in his he's close to to the to the Kremlin inside so he's a credible um a credible Source he's incredible source and he is a he been a promoter of uh of um strong nationalist positions within uh Russia going back more than a decade he frequently invited uh Mr xowski onto his program he shared many of janowski's positions in their anti-western nature and and so he his position on this are they pushing Mr Putin from the right he is one of those people who is pushing from the right here's uh President Biden also on Tuesday not mentioning tomahawks not mentioning f-16s but saying probably to the dismay of prime minister uh netan yaho of Israel Ukraine goes to the head of the line cut number eight in the coming months the United States and our partners intend to provide Ukraine with dozens of additional Tactical Air Defense systems the United States will make sure that when we export critical air defense interceptors Ukraine goes to the front of the line that we'll get this assistance before anyone else gets it this was at uh the opening session of NATO's 75th birthday celebration which as you mentioned a few minutes ago is going on in Washington DC uh even uh even as we speak H how do you uh assess the kremlin's assessment of the saber rattling going on in Washington and we'll play before you even answer that we'll play an example of one of them uh he doesn't use the word IR reverse ible or inevitable but those two words are in draft documents that have been leaked to the Press referring to Ukraine joining NATO but he does say that it will happen here's the secretary of state of the United States whom we haven't heard in two weeks but here he is uh yesterday at the summit uh in NATO cut number 18 we have an incredibly robust package that will be unveiled over the next couple of days at NATO that builds a very very clear strong robust well-lit bridge to Nato membership for Ukraine including as you mentioned the first time NATO's dedicated a command to helping an aspiring country join the alliance this in and of itself is extraordinary he didn't actually use the word irreversible but as I indicated it appears in one of those drafts that his people uh uh leaked how does the Kremlin uh react to all that well not being a Kremlin Insider I I have a hard time answering it in their name the most the best that I do would I say I deal with uh with uh very responsible um people who are criminal insiders Mr solv was one of them right VES nikonov nikonov the the grandson of Molotov who has a program of his own the great game together with Demitri SS formerly head of the Nixon Center and and now now well established in Moscow these people are the ones whom I listen to and still in all let's be open about it the the signals that Moscow is is is receiving must be as confusing to them as they are to us I me my good friend Ray McGovern was saying just a few days ago how things are looking better because we we had receive news that zalinski is ready for to have the Russians present at the next round of his peace uh peace Summit uh we've heard that he is ready to accept the inevitability that that Ukraine will have to acknowledge the loss of territories that that Russia has already captured all of this sounds like Mr zalinsky was be was listening to realist uh sane advice Among his advisers to make peace with Russia now it may well be that this stepping up this very energetic uh speechmaking by the by the administration in in Washington is to overturn a decision that zansky has made uh in the realization that the game is up and he's losing too many of his people it that could be an explanation but certainly there signals between what what zalinsky has said to have to have acknow as reality a few days ago and what we see now in Washington that is they are in sharp contradiction which is the real way that things are going uh is very hard to say and if we have a hard time I think the Kremlin also has a hard time I'd like your thoughts on what you think the kremlin's reaction uh will be to this kind of a message also from uh President Biden uh on Tuesday cut number s in Europe Putin's war of aggression against Ukraine continues and Putin wants nothing less nothing less than Ukraine's total subjugation to end Ukraine's democracy to destroy urine's Ukraine Ukraine's culture and to wipe Ukraine off the map and we know Putin won't stop at Ukraine but make no mistake Ukraine can and will stop Putin how bitterly ironic and harshly inappropriate is his language to suggest that Putin President Putin wants to destroy democracy in Ukraine when Joe Biden and his buddies in 2014 did exactly that I completely agree with you and they've been on that same path ever since if there's any shred of democracy left in Ukraine it's only dumb luck because the United States has done its best to uh to serve those elements uh in and around the presidency uh mainly not Nazi Pro um Neo-Nazi elements that have been controlling the the presidency ever since 2014 and leading it as far away from democracy and and as fre and all freedoms there's no freedom of the press there's no Freedom uh of politics in Ukraine to speak about today's Ukraine as a democracy is is an insult to anybody's intelligence is there any evidence of which you're aware of Putin's desire to attack Europe or to reassemble the old Soviet Union or is Joe Biden's mentality now I know you're you're a doctor but you're not a shrink stuck in the Cold War era well he he never left the Cold War era and this was patly clear from uh from articles in the in the um Foreign Affairs magazine they were issued early in his camp in his 2020 campaign the he the these were all based on premises of a cold war so he he didn't move very far from where he'd been during his whole political life it's just that he has he lost touch with and had no interest in um objective reality um the he was been these are wonderful political speeches to make to rally the troops but they have little of to do with with objective reality and that so he hasn't changed um the circumstances of Mr Putin um you have to look at what Russians have been saying about the Soviet past and uh among themselves without any intent to influence thinking outside the country Mr xowski was one of the biggest um realists and the one who said on on Russian State television repeatedly that the Soviet Empire had been parasitical and had drained the Russian core of assets um since the allegiance of these of these um uh allies was being bought at every turn the Russian the Russian foreign policy that Russian nationalists have been trying and these are the people you assume would be the the um the ones pressing for an Empire they're exactly the opposite they don't want an Empire because they know Russia can't afford it they would like to look after their own people and not look after uh um subservient people who are subservient only because they're being bought off at Russia's expense one last um question about NATO before we move on uh to another subject president zalinski is apparently fearful uh I guess he thinks he'll still be in office that Donald Trump may be elected president and may try to remove the United States from NATO I was quite surprised to hear him say this uh but uh here he is in Washington on Tuesday cut number 16 I hope that United States will never seriously will never seriously think to go out from NATO I think so but it's it's it's not my decision I'm just sharing with you my my thoughts uh and I hope that if uh people of America will vote for uh president Trump I hope that his policy with Ukraine will not change very interesting I thought that he uh he said that and of course as we speak literally at their breakfast meeting this morning the NATO leaders are trying to have you heard this phrase before Trump proof NATO I don't know what they can do something that will commit the United States and NATO to something in a way that couldn't be undone if Donald Trump becomes president president but um Professor it must be of concern to them uh the the potential that Trump would enter re-enter the picture and his attitude about uh NATO is hardly that of Joe Biden's I don't think that Mr Trump would me would try to dismantle NATO that would embroil him in enormous uh um fights on Capitol Hill that would deete his political Capital without any any any notable gain in his position with respect to the war in Ukraine and American foreign policy generally uh all he has to do is not support that is not provide additional funds not go begging Congress to to um to raise monies for Ukraine uh and to ship uh military hardware from our stock or uh to back uh orders to place orders with American Arms manufacturers for shipment to Ukraine he would he by doing nothing he would be doing everything and that they cannot proof proof proof Trump proof and that number uh the LA last count of what uh Joe Biden's Administration with congression overwhelming Congressional support has sent to Ukraine thus far 175 billion dollar wor worth it it's extraordinary and what kind of shape is the Ukraine military in on its last legs don't you agree uh not entirely it's a big country even though it's been been reduced from 40 million population to maybe 25 million population but when you look at the day-to-day fighting uh even if as some of my peers have said correctly that daily kill Ratio or Ming ratio of um uh of the Ukrainian forces suggest 2,000 men are taken out of action a day still there still still there are bodies to fill those slots um the Russians uh when you look at what is happening you have to remember this war has changed all of our thinking uh this war has introduced Technologies and and tactics on the ground that that influence greatly how you measure the the strength of of one side or the other I have in mind particularly the drones uh the the Russian forces artillery and these um these glider bombs they are wonderful against masted um Mass troops uh those of my colleagues who remark that there is no room for training uh Ukrainian recruits because you can't you can't find Barracks for you can't find fields for them to practice in without there being bombed by the Russians that's fine and it's I'm sure it's true but it's ignoring the fact that just a few people who are well trained in the use of drones are creating havoc in the battlefield and also uh that influences Russia Russia is also subject to Ukrainian drone attack or everywhere in the battlefield so uh the situation is more complicated than it looks it's not just numbers of men surely you surely Professor you don't agree with um Joe Biden when he said make no mistake Ukraine can and will stop Putin oh it's not going to stop Putin that is that is clear uh the the Russians are determined the Russians have vast numbers of volunteers I go back in history a little bit this is not the first war that Russia's been engaged in uh they have been in in in enormous uh engagements um of a military nature for several hundred years I have compared Mr Putin to to Peter the Great also about 25 24 25 years in power also uh uh in the Great Northern war he uh he waged battle was enormously costly in every way that that that placed Russia among the foremost European powers um M Mr Putin is is doing the something similar but um the the nature of warfare as I say has changed and vast numbers of men are no longer a decisive Factor um when you have these technical devices now Will can can you stop the Russians no you can't uh and they are advancing in 1 two three kilometers a day almost all across the front but not 5 km and not 10 kilm um and they're doing and it's slow precisely to avoid catastrophic losses that uh can accompany an offensive the the the offensive side as opposed to the defensive side uh Switching gears as we speak uh Professor Dr o are there Chinese troops in bellarus engaged in war games this has been reported uh in in the in the alternate media uh and it may well true but let's put this in a context it would be entirely logical considering what happened in aana two weeks ago uh remember that Belarus became this Alana was the host the Alana is the capital of of Kazakhstan it was the host to the Shanghai cooperation uh organization Summit at which uh belus was made the 10th member now this is this is an extraordinary change in the um composition of the Shanghai cooperation organization which going back to its founding around 2001 was to to to shore up Security in Central Asia that was under threat from from the from the uh the extremist islamists in Afghanistan uh and that Shoring up was done by The Neighbors on one side China on the other side Russia and also to as a means of um uh steadying the Ambitions of both those two big powers for for control of this Territory between them from that it has moved on expanded it has it has India it has Pakistan it has Iran in it and now they added belus so the Chinese would be going to Belarus has to be put in that context that they are going to a country that is now a member of the security Arrangements that are enshrined in the uh the founding documents of the Shanghai cooperation organization uh it is of course is remarkable for sending a message to Europe and of course to the immediate neighbors Poland and Ukraine that if you think that you are going to overrun the bellus borders and this is entirely thinkable since the poles have have drawn a lot of troops close to the Ukrainian border and they are supporting the um the failed um uh alternative to to lukashenko as Head of State in in in Belarus so the if they would try to carry this Pretender across the border that they would try to Stage attacks uh which the Russians would call terrorist attacks across the border as the ukrainians have done in the belg province near kov this is entirely thinkable and the presence of these Chinese troops suggests gentlemen you don't have to wait for the North Koreans to come we're here W well you um you never fail to give us uh uh thought-provoking analysis Professor Dr o very very much appreciated uh I'm going to be away for two weeks but I hope you can come back and resume your regular uh weekly time with us uh at the end of July thank you so much my dear friend it's a great pleasure thank thank you uh just to uh go over who's coming up the rest of today which is a very interesting day for uh all of us at 3 o'clock this afternoon Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson at four o'clock this afternoon professor John mimer and at the end of the day at five o'clock the always worth waiting for Max Blumenthal judge napalitano for judging freedom [Music] [Music]

Channel: Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom

Views: 45,148

Keywords:

Id: puIOb1wyZF0

Length: 30min 24sec (1824 seconds)

Published: Thu Jul 11 2024