Could The US Enter a Serious Crisis?

the united states of america is doomed it seems like every year since the mid-2010s life in america has only gotten more and more chaotic it seems like the government of the usa is going to fail one day it seems like the usa might split apart it seems like the easiest thing to do to explain the decline in the american lifestyle is to blame some other group what is really going on under the hood of the american system is a shift in american political and social culture that has happened plenty of times in the past this video is going to be an oversimplified summary of the book the storm before the calm by george freeman where he attempts to explain that america will experience a massive crisis during the 2020s and potentially the 2030s the main point of the book is that america has two simultaneous cycles and that when either repeats a crisis breaks out the institutional cycle repeats about every 80 years and defines the relationship of the government to the people usually book ended by a country changing war the socio-economic cycle repeats about every 50 years it is defined by how the economy is structured in the society that grows under that system usually ended by a failing economy the last institutional cycle started about 80 years ago after world war ii and the last socio-economic cycle started about 45 years ago in the 1980s meaning if his theory is correct both cycles will end in the 2020s causing a national crisis the united states has never seen before what really are these cycles is the united states destined for pain in the next few decades before we get into the cycles it's extremely important to understand first that america is no ordinary country the usa is an invention both institutionally and culturally and because it is an invention it shifts much more predictably and much much faster than most other countries other nations have thousands of years of history progressing at a much slower pace and having some traditions to look back on and conserve america has no thousand-year-old traditions it's not even 300 years old but instead of having tradition america has always had something that made it stand out another way innovation in america inventions and new ideas are much more valuable than old ones and since the people who came to america all shared the idea of leaving their old home for a better faster paced life it has created a massive culture of rapid technological change america has been a driving force for creations of new technologies for the last few centuries both in actually making them and popularizing them the combination of rapid innovation and massive business sector in the us has created technologies from the light bulb commercializing electricity to the car and plane the atomic bomb the microchip and the internet you're watching this video on each radically changing the world the government was created too it was set up from an enlightenment point of thinking that all men were created equal it was an experiment to see if democracy had the capability of working in full force it also held the point of view that the government should limit itself as much as possible the early united states was less of a singular country and more of a collection of countries each much different than the other depending on your point of view this original experiment has either failed or succeeded failed in the sense that the original governmental forum of the usa is definitely non-existent but succeeded in the way that the usa has been the dominant power on earth for around 100 years now the great american experiment is the central reason to why the u.s is so fast-paced a government which does not interfere in invented population who came to accept change rather than reject it and a massive consumer base has turned america into the most powerful force in the world and that is why everyone will be affected by the future american turmoil [Music] the founding fathers invented the federal government they made it so they would not only stay out of different states as business but they purposely made it inefficient so the fed could physically not interfere with state governments that of course changed the federal government today is so much more powerful and larger than the founding fathers ever designed it to be but that doesn't make it worse just different the federal government has changed twice throughout history both because the fast-paced american life was changing and the original government was not set up for the new life the federal government is again due for a change we'll see a specific flaws in a bit but for now let's look quickly at the old institutional cycles of the usa the first institutional cycle was created out of the revolutionary war the colonial government was not working for the average american overseen by the british raising their taxes the war created a new identity of an american who simply did not want a government of course a world with no government would not go so well so it was minimized as much as it could state governments had much more control over the daily lives of americans than the fed ever did during this period there is tension between states though especially between slave and free states these only grew when the usa expanded westward having to maintain a balance between free and slave states with no real power overseeing the states the tensions grew and you guessed it the usa had a civil war the federal government grew in power after the war and the second institutional cycle of the usa had begun 80 years after the first this time the federal government oversees the states but the relationship was still a little confused it wasn't sure if the fed had total control over the state's decisions they definitely had more than before but states were still fairly autonomous surprise surprise the question of autonomy wasn't answered until 80 years after the 1860s in the 1940s this time it wasn't just a war with itself like the last two but a global war america came out of world war ii stronger than it had ever been avoiding much of the damage the war caused economically providing for the rest of its team and developing world ending weapons the usa was now the leader of the western world and as a leader it could not have any questions about the role of its own government the federal government expanded vastly after world war ii it started with a nationwide initiative to educate veterans coming home from overseas and the integration of science into the military and thus the government the university was now almost fully integrated into the american government and when the university does anything most other institutions are soon to follow the feds soon expanded to include almost every aspect of life going to school buying a house building a new company or new infrastructure and living day-to-day all involved some aspect of the federal government the budget was about 6.6 trillion dollars in 2020 or around 98 of the gdp something which would have made the founding fathers die of cringe and it's not like the government is fast anyone who waits on a driver's license tax return or a bill to pass can tell you that the government moves very very slowly there are simply so many departments of the government all working under the magic of bureaucracy and it's time for a change 80 years past the 1940s is after all the 2020s but it has always been a war to change the government where is our war perhaps it's the sheer length of the war on terror which might have symbolically ended with a retreat from afghanistan or it could be some other unforeseen work coming this decade but it's the end of the violence which makes the government re-evaluate itself perhaps to a much more streamlined version of itself this time which brings us to war changing the fed isn't the only change to american life every 50 years it seems like the economy fails and then a president comes along who sees that it's failing and changes the system this has happened five times throughout history so far and it's soon time for a sixth every president after the change is seen as a hero at least in the time and unites the country under their popularity and the couple presidents before the change are seen as a failure as they are actively promoting an economic system which is about 50 years old at the time hurting the nation rather than helping it ulysses grant herbert hoover and jimmy carter were all seen fairly negatively in their time and if low popularity is any indication of this system changing then trump and biden's fairly low popularities are signs that it will change of course they were also the ones who ruled over a broken economy so it's not hard to see why they're disliked but then comes along a president who sees the broken system and makes a change maybe small maybe large but the change works and the economy is restored again later presidents then look back at the new and shiny change and keep applying the same methods because they worked and then so does the next president and the next one after that and the next one after that and you get the point eventually time passes people change the country changes and now you're applying a 50 year old fix to a modern problem in fact it is usually the fix that caused the problems in the first place so when you keep applying the same ideas you cause more harm than good this is why fdr is seen as a great president he was one of the five men to change the american economic system and allowed the country to flourish after the great depression it's also why another one of the five men ronald reagan is not exactly seen in the best light today as it's his economic system which has been repeated over and over to cause harm to today's americans after all it has been almost 50 years since reagan was president we're due for another system soon with a crash before that in the 2020s the five presidents all roughly 50 years apart to change the system were george washington who well made the system in the first place andrew jackson who established the gold and silver standard and limited the national bank's role rutherford hayes who created a mix of gold and fiat money standard even if it was maybe accidental he still caused the change and failed the 50 year old role franklin roosevelt who made the new deal essentially helped for the unemployed and poor and increased government spending and ronald reagan who lowered taxes especially among the rich and decreased government spending all of these presidents besides hayes won in a landslide election showing the country was begging for a change they all fixed the issues of the time but hurt the country 50 years later and before every shift the country starts to panic during the build-up to the crash unrest is much more common the country is more partisan and the economy seems to fail the average person check check check for the modern day america is going through all of these phases right now politics are a mess the economy is stunting and the average middle-class american can't even afford a house let alone a family it's why there are so many political figures today calling for some pretty drastic change the current presidents are using a 50-year-old system to solve today's problems as did the president's 50 years before them to be specific the 1970s were a time when america had a capital shortage lack of foreign investment and massive inflation without economic growth called stagflation reagan did enact policies to solve the problems of the 1970s he was pro-business especially big business and anti-tax the capital shortage was solved and ended up creating some rather important companies today but those were the problems of the 1970s we now have the problems of the 2020s with essentially a capital surplus with no sign of the capital making its way to the average american staying with the rich almost directly because of 50 years of reaganomics so like five other times in american history it's time for a new system during the election of 2028 or 2032 look out for a candidate who will absolutely change the economic system of america because they're probably gonna be the winner trust in the federal government is at an all-time low so is the amount of people who hold universities in a high regard management jobs are only held by those with credentials not aspects of being a good manager and trust in scientists has recently been declining leading to a rise in climate change denial and anti-vax movements what do all of these institutions have in common all are run by experts it's simple public approval of experts at an all-time low why technocracy is the form of government run by experts the usa has essentially been a technocratic system ever since universities created the atom bomb and suddenly gained massive power over the government experts specifically from prestigious universities run the government supreme court ceo positions and the country in general it seems like a fair system to have a political expert run the country a legal expert be a judge and an expert in finance be the manager of your firm it makes sense to me so how is it failing well it's because the american system is all linked together universities created the technocracy and the technocracy runs both the federal government and economy but both the federal government and economy are about to change in a pretty serious way so it stands to reason that the root cause of both sectors will be the cause of their changes what would it be replaced by though well there's no way to know for certain one theory might be that leadership is not given to whoever is most formally educated and leading people like having an mba but to those who are simply the best leaders can think rationally and use common sense it's very likely we will see less hierarchy in both government and business those with less experience might be the ones making decisions based on their specific situations instead of following an all-knowing central guide and this simple shift in our culture would create a massive effect on society government institutions could run freely of each other making a much more efficient government big tech and huge companies would make way for new smaller companies and university was no longer essentially be in acclimatization for the future elite of this hierarchy i mean sixty percent of people who attend ivy league universities come from the top one percent of families they're quickly becoming less of a place to learn and more of a place for the next generation of elite to get socialized the 2030s would bring a streamlined government and a new economic system for america in my personal opinion i think the new economic system could be a strong focus on small business capitalism the monopolies of big tech big banks and big pharma are some of the most hated industries in the country as well as a perfect symbol of the technocracy the new america could very well reject them taxing the hyper rich and focusing on small businesses and the gig economy and if you think big tech will never die just look at the car industry cars were once the fancy new technology of america even becoming the center of american identity during the 50s and 60s but as time went on cars started hurting the well-being of the nation causing awful effects in some of the us's largest cities even being rejected by younger americans all together in favor of walkable cities social media usage is already starting to stagnate it might only take another generation or two for it to become rejected from society or at least only used as a tool much like the car is today so the institutional and socioeconomic cycles are both coming to a close in the 2020s but just because the us will likely be better in the 2030s it doesn't mean that i won't feel the pain institutional cycles end in war and socioeconomic cycles end in economic collapses with the economy not doing the greatest by any metric and america's longest war coming to an end it's clear that these changes are happening i mean if the election of donald trump wasn't an indication that america is changing i don't know what is it's usually followed by massive social unrest and we're already seeing the start of it on both sides of america's political spectrum during the 2020s expect more riots expect more crime expect more political polarization more deaths and more chaos inside of america's borders but beyond the turmoil a new america will likely bring another golden age of political stability and economic growth to the country america is a unique country because of its invented nature through its people and government it is easy to predict its changes its government changes every 80 years after the end of a war and its economy changes every 50 years after an economic crisis the 2020s will be the first time these two cycles align in the same decade there will be mass chaos and unrest inside of the usa there will almost certainly be economic failure there might even be another war with who knows what other countries but beyond the storm there will be an age of efficient government and smaller business likely in america with much less technocracy well there's no way to know for certain what will happen the world is confusing like that but just know that america is about to change if the world especially america seems crazy throughout the 2020s that's good it means these predictions are true just wait until the 2030s and beyond and you might be living in some of the best times of your lives

Channel: hoser

Views: 792,494

Keywords: h0ser, hoser, geopolitics, geography, history, economics, economy, usa, america, economic collapse, video essay, stock market collapse, american war, war, the usa, 2020s, usa 2020s, america 2020s, american crisis, usa crisis, institutional cycle, socioeconomic cycle, george friedman

Id: IGxp3webS2s

Length: 17min 7sec (1027 seconds)

Published: Wed Jun 01 2022