MARKET >> EIGHT MONTHS AGO THE S&P HIT THE CLOSING LOW. EIGHT MONTHS YOU HAVE NOT BEEN THE BIGGEST OF BELIEVERS, AND ARE YOU COMING AROUND TO A MORE BULLISH PERSPECTIVE? >> WELL, MY POSITION IS COMING AROUND TO SOME EXTEND. I MENTIONED A WEEK OR SO AGO I BOUGHT DEERE, AND I DID SELL A SMALL PART OF TREASURIES THAT ARE COMING DUE IN SEPTEMBER. LOOK, YOU KNOW, I THINK I SAID AT SOME POINT LAST WEEK THAT 4,200, IT WAS BREACHED AND INSTEAD OF RESISTANCE -- IT'S UNDENIABLE PEOPLE WANT TO PUT MONEY IN THE MARKET. IN TERMS OF BAD POSITIONING -- >> WELL, THEY ARE NEVER THE GREATEST INDICATORS. >> NOTHING IS AN INDICATOR THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT AND EVERY TIME IS DIFFERENT. THE OLD SAYING, IT'S NEVER ANY DIFFERENT. IT'S ALWAYS DIFFERENT BECAUSE OF THE FACTORS THAT GET YOU TO THE DIFFERENT POINT. THE ENDING MAY BE THE SAME I THINK WE HAVE AVOIDED FOR NOW ARMAGEDDON, AT LEAST, BUT WE STILL HAVE NOT SEEN THE IMPACT OF THE FED TIGHTENING POLICY WILL WE EVER SEE IT AT ITS MAXIMUM? AS FAR AS THE ECONOMY GOES, IT'S A DIFFERENT STORY. BUT YOU SEPARATE THINGS WITH WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH THE ECONOMY. IT'S UNDENIABLE. >> MARK SAID THE ODDS THAT A DOWNTURN IS DEAD AHEAD ARE RECEDING, AND THIS TIME MIGHT BE DIFFERENT. GOT A LOT OF EXCESS SAVINGS. LABOR HOARDING, LOW LEVERAGE, NUMBER THREE THE CATACLYSMIC SCENARIO MANY POINTED, AND NOT SAYING YOU SAID IT WOULD BE A CATACLYSMIC EVENT, BUT THE FED GOES 500 BASES POINTS AND THE ECONOMY AND THE MARKET CAN'T POSSIBLY HANDLE THAT, BUT HERE WE ARE. MAYBE THE PEOPLE WHO ARE USING THEIR FORECAST, ARE USING OUTDATED METHOLOGY WE HAD A ONCE IN 100 YEAR EVENT IN THE PANDEMIC, AND WE FLOODED THE ZONE WITH MORE CASH THAN WE CAN REMEMBER AND PEOPLE SAT ON THE CASH BECAUSE THEY COULDN'T DO ANYTHING WITH IT, AND PEOPLE HAD JOBS AND THE LABOR MARKET IS STRONG AND PEOPLE ARE STILL SITTING ON SAVINGS WHERE IS THE END IS NEAR WHERE? >> IT DOESN'T MEAN IT WILL BE FELT ULTIMATELY. YOU MAY HAVE DELAYED THE IMPACT. I WAS NEVER LOOKING FOR A DEPRESSION I WAS LOOKING FOR A SLOWING ECONOMY. WE HAVE A SLOWING ECONOMY. I WAS LOOKING FOR A RECESSION AND WE MAY STILL GET A RECESSION. WHAT IS DIFFERENT AS FAR AS MARK GOES, AND AS I SAID REPEATEDLY, YOU HAVE A DIFFERENT CLASS OF INVESTORS, A DIFFERENT TYPE OF INVESTOR THE OGs, THEY ARE RETIRED AND SPENDING THEIR MONEY AND OFF IN THEIR YACHTS, AND THE NEW ONES COMING UP ARE LOOKING AT 30 AND 40 YEARS AND SAYING IN MY INVESTING LIFETIME, AS LONG AS I HAVE BEEN AWARE OF THE MARKET, EVERY TIME IT HAS GONE DOWN IT HAS GONE BACK UP YOUR BOOK -- >> HE SAID I SEE A FINANCIAL CRISIS AHEAD AND HE IS WORRIED ABOUT THE DEBT BOMB -- >> I DO NOT THINK THAT'S OFF THE TABLE. LOOK, COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE, YOU WILL SEE THE REFINANCE NOT THAT FAR AWAY FROM NOW WE HAD SILICON VALLEY BANK AND FIRST REPUBLIC BANK, THAT'S THE BLOW, AND NO OTHER BANKS BLEW UP AND NOTHING HAPPENED, AND NO, BECAUSE LEASES HAVE NOT ENDED AND PEOPLE HAVE NOT WALKED AWAY FROM THEIR LEASES AND THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED >> WE ARE 20% OFF OF THE LOW, AS WE SAID, AND STEVE SUDMYER, HE GOES BACK TO THE AVERAGE RETURN OF 114%. SO ARE WE ON TO SOMETHING HERE HAVE WE TRAVELED TOO FAR FROM THE DEPTHS OF WHERE WE WERE TO TURN BACK NOW? >> I THINK THAT THIS TECHNICAL BULL MARKET WHETHER IT'S CYCLICAL OR SECULAR GETS TOUGH FOR THE BEARS WHO HAVE BEEN SITTING ON THE SIDELINES A TREASURE TROVE OF DATA, AND THE S&P IS 20% OFF ITS LOWS, AND THE 12 MONTH AVERAGE RETURN GOING FORWARD IS OVER 16.5%, AND 85% OF THE TIME THE MARKET WAS POSITIVE NOW, THERE WAS TWO EXCEPTIONS IN 1948 AND IN 2001 IF I AM IN VEGAS AND I HAVE SOMETHING WITH AN 85% PROBABILITY, I WOULD PROBABLY BET ON THAT. I THINK THE MARKET IN THE SHORT-TERM, I THINK WHAT JOE SAID IS IMPORTANT ABOUT INFLATION, WE WILL HAVE IT HANDLED BY
