CDC leak, summary and full report

well a warm welcome to today's talk it's Saturday the 31st of July most of today's video is about the leaked information from the Centers for Disease Control in the states but let me just show you why this is important first of all moving on to this screen as we see cases in the UK there's some debate but basically the trajectory has been downwards for some time it may change next week as a result of the easing of restrictions of course but for now it's going down but the United States most certainly is going up and I don't really think you need me to tell you why the cases in the United States are going up uh it's here so United Kingdom is essentially 100 Delta variant United States is now at least 93 Delta variant with the other ones like the alpha now constituting the vast minority of cases and of course we know about the massively increased transmissibility of this variant now let's get straight on to this report um I'll show you that I can show you the whole report but I've got some highlights from it let the these are the various references if you click on those you can get the whole report now it is that this leaked information is in fact a PowerPoint and of course any teacher knows that you can't really teach from someone else's PowerPoint but I think I've got some of the main points out to share with you and they are quite important ones um so um one of the officials I said we've got to acknowledge that the war has changed that is true the Delta variant has changed things now this is the summary Delta variant is different from previous strains this is the summary from the uh from the PowerPoint leaked from the Center for Disease Control this is it here so it's uh I'm summarizing from this now um Delta variance highly contagious likely to cause somewhat more severe disease now the World Health Organization we're playing that down yesterday they were saying it can cause more hospitalizations and that's true there's no direct evidence it can cause more deaths but it does cause more severe disease and it's certainly highly contagious this is new breakthrough infections may be as transmissible as unvaccinated cases now the VAC the vaccines are going to reduce the likelihood of being infected but when people are infected when there's this breakthrough infection in other words when people are vaccinated do get the infection they can have a very high viral load and can be very infectious so vaccinated people have the potential to pass the disease on in a minority of cases but if they do get it they're highly infectious and of course they very often don't know when they do have it because they may be asymptomatic or their symptoms may be fairly minimal such as a headache runny nose sore throat sneezing foreign so this is the potential for spread here so vaccine presents prevents to greater than 90 percent of severe disease but may be less effective at preventing infections and transmission so very important vaccine vaccines prevent nine about night greater than 90 of severe disease don't lose that essential point this is protecting you from severe disease but because it because um because it's less effective at preventing infection or transmission therefore more breakthrough and Community spread despite vaccination is going to occur so what they're saying here is the numbers in the United States um are going to well I think what they're saying is the numbers in the United States are going to be going up I'm afraid and this is why they change the guidelines to vaccinated people having to wear masks because vaccinated people could have breakthrough infection and they could be shedding very large amounts of virus so non-pharmaceutical interventions The Mask wearing the distancing are essential to prevent continued spread with the current vaccine coverage that is what they're saying now let's just look at a couple of the uh the points that they make on this PowerPoint slide now greater risk of disease hospitalizations and deaths among unvaccinated versus vaccinated in other words it's clear that vaccinated people have a high degree of protection against hospitalization severe disease and death and here we have the the figures so um eight-fold reduction in disease incidents so it's preventing a lot of infections but we now knows that these are the blue here the vaccinated we now know those that do get infected can be as contagious as those that are not vaccinated but that they're they're the figures they're weekly covid-19 incidents per 100 000 cases so um disease incidents without vaccination and with vaccination speaks for itself so is is preventing a lot of infection but the few that do get infected can be infectious right preventing hospitalization incidents fully vaccinated here um unvaccinated here 25-fold reduction 25 times less likely to be hospitalized by this slide which is I got it that's about 96 or 97 or something like that so very good level of protection and likewise against death and of course the figures that the likelihood of dying is much much less 0.96 per week per hundred thousand uh but uh there's a 25-fold reduction in those that are vaccinated so I mean that slide really does give pretty uh powerful reasons to get vaccinated those great reductions in in severe disease well infections and in severe disease hospitalization and in deaths so that is quite impressive data there at the current incidence 35 000 symptomatic infections per week amongst 162 million vaccinated Americans so I haven't even bothered working out the percentage of that of course it's going to be 70 000 every Fortnight and 140 000 every month but it's still right that they're calling it very minuscule risk of of the uh of infection and if you do become infected way less likely to get hospitalized if you don't get hospitalized way less likely to die now this screen here let's just take a minute to sort of take this in because it gives a awful lot of information on this screen here now um transmission of Delta and this is directly from the uh the CDC leaked PowerPoint transmission of Delta variant versus ancestral strains and other infections now what we've got here as we go up here let's go up here a disease is becoming more deadly so up here means more deadly as we go along here so it's a what you call a bival rate scattergram this so that's the that's the increase in deadness along there and here is the transmissibility it spreads faster and we see that measles there is massively uh transmissible but we see MERS Middle East Respiratory Syndrome down here thankfully that doesn't spread there's still a few outbreaks of that from Camels in Saudi Arabia in such places swine flu seasonal flute and here we see SARS coronavirus 2 ancestral strain but we see a significant shift towards this end which it means it spreads faster in SARS coronavirus 2 Delta variant so we're spreading this is more transmissible than Spanish flu bird flu Ebola MERS swine flu seasonal flu common cold polio more transmissible than smallpox and in the same range of transmissibleness as chickenpox not as transmissible as measles but measles is incredibly transmissible and we also see that it's moved up a bit so it's moved up a little bit so that box there is our slightly um that box there's a slightly lower level to that box there meaning there's a slight increase in disease severity so remarkably useful slide there meaning that this is now one of the most infectious diseases around measles is more transmissible but it's as infectious as chickenpox so I thought that was uh that that was uh pretty useful now I've no reason to suspect that the CDC weren't going to release us into the public domain pretty soon anyway let me just show you the whole um the whole report that's here and again the links I've given you will take you to that this is the whole PowerPoint so it is a bit difficult sometimes to know exactly what they're talking about some things are labeled as confidential so we're not going to talk about those because it's based on preliminary data but uh that's the information now I'm going to give you this uh summary from um so let's get back to that now vaccine breakthrough cases May reduce public confidence in vaccination are they going to this in some detail now a big part of the reason that they did this PowerPoint for internal distribution and um doctor of valinski presented it to Congress last Thursday I think it was was because the information is a bit easy to understand so it looks like on one level you can be saying that vaccinated people can be just as infectious as non-vaccinated people vaccinated people can still go to hospital all true but we've seen the magnitude of the difference and vaccinated people are less likely to get the infection than unvaccinated people but if they do it can be as transmissible now you can see that that's a bit complicated so they wanted to communicate this appropriately which is is fine that that's their job to do that that there is no attempt to deceive or mislead here it is just um I don't think they wanted to communicate it quite as soon as they have I feel comfortable communicating it to you now because as you've just seen that link is is public domain anyone can click on that and they can uh they can get exactly the same information I've taken this from so vaccine breakthrough cases are expected will increase as the proportion of total cases will increase as the proportion of total cases as vaccine coverage increases now this is what we're seeing in the UK um people being hospitalized there's not a lot of difference in the actual numbers between people being hospitalized that are vaccinated and are unvaccinated that's because the vast majority of the population in the UK is now vaccinated so that is going to carry on increasing and again it makes the vaccines look bad but it's not it's just because more and more people are being vaccinated we've just seen the very high level of protection against hospitalization and death vaccine breakthrough cases will occur more frequently in uh congregate settings so people huddled together even though they're vaccinated there can still be transmission and in groups at risk of primary vaccine failure now this is one of the big concerns at the moment people for whom the vaccine has not worked so a friend of mine recently I heard who hasn't got a spleen um he had his spleen removed from medical reason and um spleens are removed actually quite commonly sometimes it's trauma sometimes it's medical reasons but he hasn't responded to the vaccine he hasn't made the antibodies now weather is made a B and T Cell response we don't know um probably not a good one if he hasn't made any antibodies unfortunately um so these people are at risk the elderly are responding slightly less well according to Care Home data still getting good levels of coverage but but not as good as as younger people out in the community but the immune compromise for whatever reason are going to be at more risk a communication challenges have been associated with increasing proportion of cases vaccinated even when vaccination Effectiveness remains a stable in other words people can get the wrong end of the stick communication challenges are there even when vaccine Effectiveness remains stable and good so that was what this PowerPoint was largely produced for important to update communication describing breakthrough cases as rare or as a small percentage which of course they are that that is correct and this they're just advising their communicators how to communicate that which it is is true and as we've said 35 000 symptomatic infections per year with 162 vaccinated people but the point is that these combined with the asymptomatic infections spread the virus very readily perhaps spreading the virus in some cases as readily as the unvaccinated that's the big change that's the big issue that's why this is why it's so important now for vaccinated and unvaccinated people to wear masks in public data from December the 14th to April the 10th of vaccination Effectiveness against infection 91 against fully vaccinated 81 against partially vaccinated now this 81 against partially vaccinated was largely during this time period when the U.S was suffering from most cases were the alpha variant we know that protection against um the protection against infection with the Delta variant is much less in people I've only had one vaccine so while that is probably fairly similar that one will be down a bit um vaccinated people 40 lower mean viral load shorter mean duration of uh it's what I'm in duration of detectable viral RNA so it goes down to 2.7 days to eight from 8.9 and of course that means they're going to be infectious from much shorter period of time but again this is largely Alpha variant data low risk of febrile symptoms shorter mean duration of symptoms vaccine Effectiveness against hospitalization 88 and thankfully this has been maintained no evidence of waning immunity through 20 weeks post-second dose which is remarkably good news um now lower estimates for vaccine Effectiveness in those that are immunocompromised now this depends massively it varies from 59 to 80 protection so it's still good it's still a lot better than not being vaccinated depending very much on the cause of the immunocompromise so people could be immunocompromised because they've had a an organ transplant and they're taking immunosuppressing drugs they could be immuno compromised because they want steroids they could have a medical condition they could have a genetic condition or they could have cancers all of these things can reduce and certainly people on um chemotherapy will have reduced immunity so it's going to vary a lot depending on the cause of the immunosuppression and they do give examples of that in the presentation if you want to look at it uh vaccine is more effective against hospitalizations and deaths illness and infections in that order um so lots of protection against hospitalizations and deaths loss of protection against illness somewhat less protection against infection we know that with a confirmative Delta infections associated with higher viral load and duration of shedding now this comes from data from India so Delta variant definitely having a higher viral load because the CT value of the cycle threshold value is a much lower in India they found that healthcare workers were detecting positive with only 16.5 cycle thresholds as opposed to the non-delter strange which required 19 thresholds for it to detectable indicating there's a higher viral load data infections associated with longer duration of CT values less than 30 days versus 13 days sorry CT value of less than 30. let me get that right Delta infections associated with long longer duration of CT values greater than 30 right so the CT values sorry I'll get this right in a minute the CT values stay less than 30. if the CT values are less than 30 that means there's a higher viral node that's right so the CT values are less than 30 therefore there's a higher viral load and that was 18 days versus 13 days for the ancestral strain meaning that people could be giving off the virus and be infectious for longer periods of time with the Delta variant um Delta variant breakthrough cases may be transmissible as transmissible as unvaccinated cases is kind of the bit of the bombshell there really but less of them will get infected in the first place so there it is it's all there if you want to uh if you want to see it all there and the links take you straight to it so quite interesting as I say there's nothing Sinister here it's just um they didn't want to release it and it was about how they communicate the message to the public which is fair enough right now just briefly UK cases um UK cases today if we took the common symptom tracker data there's a definite leveling off there which is pretty encouraging to see now um the data for today is probably coming out about now but I haven't got it but see if you click on that link you will get it it normally comes out about four o'clock which about the time it is now in fact so basically what we saw was the cases went down for seven days then they went up for a couple days then they went down a bit so the case is the lower than the covered symptom tracker data so we're a bit confused in the UK at the moment and pandemic cases don't go down as quick as the official cases have been doing in the UK so um Clarity has not yet been fully established it has to be said so what's going to happen well because of the restrictions on the 19th of using of restrictions on the 19th of July there's going to be probably more cases next week probably I think that is the case um the the Imperial College um estimates Neil Ferguson estimates um have been backpedaled on he was querying a hundred thousand to even 150 000 even 200 000 cases per day it looks like that is not happening um I'm delighted he was wrong I'm delighted I report I'm delighted that the report I gave has turned out to be pessimistic which is really good and um But there again we don't know about next week yet so it really is too early to tell so which way is this going to go well um place your bets here basically Professor Paul Hunter who we've talked to on this channel before my guess is it's peaked but I'm not confident enough to put money on it okay fair enough I'm not a betting man so guessing that it's peaked I disagree I think because of the easing of restrictions there will be a greater number of cases um next week because we're expecting the effect of that to be feeding through now over the next today and the next few days so I wouldn't be surprised if this increases over the next few days but from the data we've looked at recently it's looking like hospitalizations uh and and deaths I go into well hospitalizations are up a bit now there's no question about that there are over 900 for the last 24 hours I had data for but um it's still very hopeful that Health Services will cope with this it's still bad for all these individuals that are being admitted um but they're again given that hospitals aren't as crowded now with covered patients maybe people are being admitted for slightly less serious conditions and and the death rate the hospitalizations of death rate are certainly disconnected from the cases as a result of the vaccine and that's emphasized by Jonathan van Tam from his Public Health England report who says deputy chief medical officer of course vaccines have now prevented 22 million covered cases and 60 000 deaths so that's what he says so there we go um it is it is um it is it is a bit of a change and and this this slide here is just so uh so revealing it gives so much information slightly more dangerous but very more transmissible and the vaccine breakthrough leading to transmissible or a minority of people with transmissible infections but a significant number that I believe that the cases will carry on increasing in the United States over the next few weeks and the risk is that there's still a lot of people there unvaccinated who are at risk so there we go um look at the links for yourself take your time peruse that more information there or as hard as I say to interpret someone else's PowerPoint but I think I'm fairly happy with what I've told you there um and that is us for today let's just have 10 minutes of wafafa who's still treating this boy with um newly diagnosed diabetes mellitus type one thank you with offer so our good people we've finished uh talking to Mama I've got the whole history Hezekiah is seven years old and he was diagnosed with diabetes type 1 uh this year so she told us one of the challenges she's having is uh insulin uh adding both administration because you know hezekiel is still young and then also of course acquiring insulin is also a challenge and then I have been also having a challenge of monitoring his bloody sugar because they don't have a glucometer so uh we are done with that we've bought for them a new glucometer but I wanted to use my glucometer here to test the uh easy blood sugar I will also I show them how they can use the other new bloody glucose machine so we are going to measure hezekia's bloody sugar right now using our glucometer and then we shall also demonstrate how they can use the Avenue glucometer such that they will be able to monitor the blood sugar so I started by explaining to Hezekiah what I was going to do and I told him the procedure is a bit painful but the pain does not last for long then I explained to the mother as well uh both consented through the procedure and I thought that maybe fears breaking but I was surprised when the mother told me that he zekiel is a very brave man in the making so he's a very brave boy he doesn't fear freaking even me I thought that maybe I was going to hurt him and I was a bit scared but I was surprised the boys brave as you are going to say like even after pricking uh he didn't cry like most of the children do he was just Brave yeah so that is how I did it okay okay okay um okay yeah so uh as you can see here we've just measured the hezekiel blood glucose level and as you can see it is really high it is 17.2 millimoles per liter so it was difficult for mama to know because she could not know when it is high or low so at least I think with the us giving them this glucometer she will be able to monitor this blood sugar and she will adjust the dose of insulin depending on the blood glucose level yes one eating [Music] okay all right thank you very much for watching part one of our video it was a bit back too with Fafa in a minute I've just made a couple of notes when I've been watching that um I've just written challenge English understatement um is like the British United States thing so to say it's the challenges I mean it's quite a big problem really 17.2 million moles per liter blood sugar in American measurements that's 310 milligrams per decilitator the child is acutely hyperglycemic fortunately he doesn't have ketosis and acidosis that can be associated with this condition and the glucometer that with Factor has given him you paid for that so thank you very much the people that donated to Rapha paid for that uh so that's us for today thank you very much for watching and we'll just um I think what was going to talk about his music and what's coming next oh and give you an update on on the lady in the previous village with a high blood pressure so we'll play out with with Fafa and that's me for today thank you for watching thank you off you go long but thank you for enduring let me know your thoughts about the video in the comment section also you had the music in the video if you like the music and if you feel like you need to use it somewhere feel free to use it because uh the song in the video I'm the one who composed it and I'm the one who sang it so there is no any copyright claim on it so what you will do if you need it I will leave a link in the comment section for the video where you can watch the video and in case you need the original audio uh just email me and I will send you the Audio I have I think around four songs that I've produced so far but only that I make them in our local language but there are worship songs so they are good you can still listen to them and you will be blessed so for the songs that I've uploaded on YouTube uh they have lyrics in English though I've sang them in my work language so that means you can easily follow those songs because you will even if you don't understand my language but you will be able to read the translation that I've put in English uh thank you very much now in the next video which will be part two uh we have explained to Mama how she can prepare a diabetic diet for our friend at home using the locally available Foods we have even demonstrated and we have also planted some seedlings in that very video and in the same video I will visit the mama we firstly listed in the first video we took for her some money and also we measured high blood pressure again and we gave her some medicine so that is what you should expect in the next video otherwise thank you very much for the support I thank you very much for the encouraging messages I pray that we shall continue working together like this and may God bless you for me peace hello everyone

Channel: Dr. John Campbell

Views: 1,146,616

Keywords: health, disease, campbell, covid, sars, sars-cov-2, pandemic, epidemic, virus, vaccination, cdc, cdc leak, covid conspiracy

Id: XsRdICFRHcc

Length: 29min 36sec (1776 seconds)

Published: Sat Jul 31 2021