Caribbean Tropical System Moving West...

thank you very much for joining me at meteorologist Brian Shields this here may be catching your attention that is the strong tropical wave that'll move across the Caribbean I want to show you what I'm seeing with all of the computer models but also what I'm seeing in the environment for the chance this develops as it rides through the Caribbean I also want to get into some dust out there we'll get into the Saharan dust take a look at the winds the circulation uh in this system and the potential of a second system that may form back behind that and we'll get into the wave height so you see this blob here that's moved in that is a tropical wave that is given us some rain last night Grenada for example we've had some heavier rain we've had scattered showers and storms around over toward parts of Trinidad and Tobago up through St Lucia Barbados we had a bit of rain St fits of the Grenadines this is going to March its way closer to the ABC islands right through here now it's going to lose a little steam in the short term and then down the road later this week it may develop you see it flaring up here there's no well defined or no real circulation in this I should say it's just an area of rainstorms uh that is uh passing by did flare up a little bit these kind of fluctuate uh storm systems or disturbances they kind of breathe that different times of the day they'll they'll look different and this is going to work its way gradually toward the west and West Northwest over the next few days so we have that one here but uh catching my attention a couple waves out here in some stronger ones that will come off the coast of Africa and the early indications are that some of these May develop as they approach the Caribbean so as we work our way into July it's going to get more active no doubt about that especially out here usually this time of year we look closer to home but once we get into July we're going to start to see some of these tropical waves developing that's not not in a scary way I'm going to track it for us these all don't hit us but it's normal that as we get into July deeper into the hurricane season we are going to start to get more and more areas of development in different spots we'll have to keep an eye on as we uh continue through the season what's what's different this season is the Eastern Pacific historically quiet one of the quietest starts all time the hurricane season starts on this side May 15th and on the Eastern Pacific side there has been nothing out there now let's get back to this I want to do a few things I want to get into the small picture and then I want to widen it out and show you a few more areas that may try to develop so this is today now as this tropical disturbance moves in you see there's not a lot with it right here this is the American Model A lot of the models in pretty good agreement I'll touch on that and you see here in the short term uh not much rain with it once we get past where it is right now this is by tomorrow afternoon so near the ABC islands rain chance isn't going to be too high it's later this week it flares up again so we have the rain and storms now then it kind of dies down a little bit and then you see here here's Jamaica Cayman Islands Biz Honduras Nicaragua yucatana Mexico here's Cuba by Thursday it may start to develop somewhat now what happens here is just as it starts to develop and approach Biz and the Yucatan of Mexico well it starts to run into land these need water to uh uh kind of uh fuel them and because while it starts to develop then it runs into land it's going to lose that so the development chance is not too terribly High but there is a chance a tropical storm tries to develop or a tropical depression and works its way over here this is by the time we get into Saturday so uh that's what I'm going to be watching as this moves across and then you see more action sitting right over here so that is catching my attention so let me uh widen out the picture here and start with this the first tropical disturbance that's moving through right now in the Eastern Caribbean well what do the models do the European model says hey this is not going to be a storm because this moves toward the Yucatan it's going to run out of a water it's going to kind of run into land and it won't have enough time to develop the American model does have this developing into about a tropical depression the Canadian model has this becoming a tropical storm saying hey this is going to move over water the Bay of campiche a little bit longer kind of lift up here toward Northeast Mexico that'll give us some time to develop the German model icon model has no development now uh there's a good chance it slides toward Biz and the Yucatan nothing alarming at this time just monitoring for signs of development a much lesser chance that it would make any curve up to the north so models kind of split it just depends on if it could stay overw waterer long enough to develop so it's not a given it does develop has my attention I am watching that now here's the bigger picture so it's this area in here there's also a little disturbance coming out of the Bahamas that'll give us a better chance of rain in Bermuda a small chance that tries to develop so this here is Wednesday so that's kind of a second area right there and then you see by Thursday uh what happens this is kind of getting through the week Jamaica I'll be watching us through the week so thank you for spreading the word about this channel uh we'll see how close some of this rain gets but as of now it looks like by Friday some of this rain would be working into bise Honduras yucatana Mexico even Nicaragua close to the Cayman Islands and then we'll be watching this as a kind of lifts its way toward the Bay of campiche the longer it's able to kind of stay overw waterer the better chance it has of developing and then looking down the road this is on Saturday look at that right there I was talking about the other tropical waves that may develop by the time we get into the weekend there could be some sort of system or at least a strong tropical disturbance approaching the Eastern Caribbean almost all of the models are picking up on this so we're watching development here I want to be very clear the chance of development here and then the chance of development by the time we get into the weekend there could be some sort sort of system anywhere from Trinidad up toward Barbados and then trying to move in as of now I'm not seeing anything super strong but definitely the models are picking up on organization of some sort of tropical depression or tropical storm the potential of that near the Eastern Caribbean by this weekend and then we'll see if this kind of shoots into the Caribbean or kind of does a little bit more of a curve up to the north so wait and see on that nothing has even developed at this point this is normal starting to see a lot of areas we need to uh track and I'll do so now uh there's some dust out there it's not not the biggest area of dust we had a lot of dust a month or two ago uh so just seeing some dust this is normal as you go through the tropical season there'll be areas of dust it could suppress some of the development this here is not too terribly thick though this is by tomorrow a little surge of dust that is one of the reasons in the short term I don't expect development out of this system but as we work our way from tomorrow uh into the middle of the week uh well tomorrow would be the middle of the week as we work our way to Thursday day you see some of the Dust up here in the northeastern Caribbean but this area will be over toward Jamaica late week so this dust is not too terribly thick but the dust is always a variable I watch as we go through the hurricane season those pockets of of dry air now the water temperature certainly conducive for development 29° C to 84 Dees Fahrenheit warmer in some spots but short term uh there's some dry air around so not seeing anything developing the next couple days but once it works its way near Jamaica that's when we'll start to see some signs of developing and here's the wind shear it's not just what's going on in the water or with the dust it's also what's going on with the winds up above our heads now this is on Thursday on Thursday I know this map is a little hard to see here's Jamaica this area would be just to the south of Jamaica the wind shear which wind shear is good for us in the hurricane season that could rip apart system so wind shear is our friend but most of that would be to the north so the wind shear as it moves close closer toward Central America the yucatana Mexico the windsh is actually a little bit less another reason we'll see some signs of development out of this as we get toward the uh end of the week now you can pick out this in some of the winds here this is later today uh kilometers an hour and miles per hour both scales on your screen so uh I'll be uh tracking that as we go throughout the season different uh different units of measurement so we could uh stay safe now as we go forward and work our way into Thursday this is Thursday jumping ahead uh breezier conditions for sure some gustier winds at times not seeing any signs of circulation but then as we work our way here let me stop the clock here this is on our Friday evening you see some of the Winds 80 kilometer uh gust uh upwards of about 50 mph there could be some stronger Gust in the Western Caribbean approaching the Yucatan and bise not necessarily an organized system and then we'll see those stronger winds as we work our way into into the Bay of campee this would be by Saturday morning if it stays over water longer kind of lifts to the north that would give it a better chance of developing or else it'll just be kind of a sloppy system a rain maker that will move in for parts of Honduras B even' been watching Guatemala over toward Mexico and then here look at this this is by Sunday morning right so this is into the weekend Sunday morning see that spot right there here's Barbados here's Trinidad that spot right there uh some winds uh the potential of some sort of circulation developing that's the second system that may try to develop and approach even if it doesn't develop we're looking at some increased rain anywhere from Trinidad to the north so I'm watching St Lucia I'm watching Barbados all of us even up toward Anum burb in case anything kind of Curves into our direction and you can see everything with the wave heights as these disturbances move in the waves start to kick around two to about 3 m through the Caribbean meters here feet right here so things are definitely getting here if you have any boating interest through the Caribbean uh really uh not just today but over the next few months we're going to kind of have to weave in between tropical waves and tropical systems there's that little area I mentioned coming out of the Bahamas lifting its way up toward Bermuda Seas will be elevated in some of the Atlantic Waters and then you see here the elevated Seas near Jamaica by Thursday and then especially toward the end of the week in the central in Western Caribbean sees building to about 3 and 1 12 meters so upwards of a roughly 10 plus feet in spots off the Waters of the yucatana Mexico B Honduras so elevated Seas will be coming toward Rotan over toward Providencia and San Andre so a lot of lot of development to watch for now as far as the rain totals in the short term this stuff is scattered Cayman Islands Jamaica Haiti the Dr Bahamas Cuba scattered showers and storms watching heavier rain that will try to lift over toward Bermuda I'll touch on that in the forecast in a second spotty showers and storms as we work away from Jamaica back toward Puerto Rico not as much in the northeastern Caribbean still Monera guadaloop but we have had some rain near Dominica with this tropical wave that has uh moved in and some other locations three-day totals behind this tropical wave uh we could see anywhere from about 25 millim to 75 millim of rain or 1 to 3 in of rain not super high over the next few days we're going to wait on that next disturbance that will be moving in higher totals though again in Guyana where we could get over 100 millim or 4 in of rain scattered storms El Salvador Guatemala Costa Rica Panama Nicaragua watching for some flooding and as we work our way toward Mexico still those scattered showers around not as much Northern sections of Mexico but we'll see what tries to develop later this week and uh pushes our way so definitely a busy pattern again watching this blob here that's the first spot riding through the Caribbean and then that other area off the coast of Africa that may start to develop an approach this weekend so those are really the two areas that I'm watching you get to the northern sections of all of this Atlantic region of Canada has been busy there have been some thunderstorms around we're going to see a front pressing by so we have some fronts nearby that'll keep some instability and play this is our Wednesday afternoon that chance of some scattered showers tomorrow not as much you see some of the storms over toward Toronto moving toward the northeast of the US and then starting to move move in again as we work our way into Thursday so Jamaica 30 to 40% chance and we are hot fouth Montego Bay it is steamy Cayman Islands about a 20% chance of rain for us Jamaica and the Cayman Islands I'll watch how close this tropical disturbance will get we'll be on the edge of some heavier rain later this week and I'll be breaking that down Island by Island as we go forward Trinidad and Tobago chance of some rain and storms around at times and then we're going to shift our attention to what's going on off the coast of Africa with that next tropical wave same thing Barbados better chance of rain today a lot of this is already panned out for today St Lucia with this tropical disturbance that has moved by Grenada to we've already we've already had some of the uh areas of rain St Vincent in the Grenadine so in between the tropical waves the rain chance will be going down back down to a 30% chance tomorrow in martinque in Dominica tomorrow and Thursday rain chance will be trending down 30 to 40% chance in guadaloop 20 to 30% chance Antiga Barbuda 20 to 30% chance St kits nevas and mozara and about a 20% chance anguila and St Barts 10 to 20% chance St Martin saba and staa 30% chance of isolated storms in Puerto Rico passing shower or a thunderstorm uh us and British Virgin Islands 30 to 40% chance across the Bahamas a lot of that moisture lifting up toward Bermuda Turks and Kos could we could get a passing shower 40% chance of some scattered showers and storms in the Dominican Republic get back toward Haiti in isolate a chance of a shower storm a 40% chance in bise B all eyes on this tropical disturbance I'll be watching that approaching later this week and I'll be zooming down across bise Honduras the yucatana Mexico will get it very specific with rain totals or even any winds that may eventually come our way 20 to 30% chance in Aruba where we may get CLI by this tropical disturbance I'm hoping it could spill over some showers for Aruba Kira and Bonaire Guyana rain chance on the higher side today those pockets of flooding trending down somewhat in suram rain chance about 50% in Cuba this is more in the way of those scattered showers and storms Costa Rica and Panama a 60% chance isolate flooding a 50% chance in Nicaragua Nicaragua uh back toward Honduras I'll be watching this tropical disturbance that'll move closer later this week 40 to 50% chance in the short term in Honduras a 60% chance of scattered showers and storms Guatemala El Salvador in about a 50% chance the next few days as we get back toward Mexico City rain chance about 60% a little bit higher over toward the yucatana of Mexico isolated 30% chance in Colombia 30 to 40% chance in Northern Venezuela and that rain chance getting higher in Bermuda with that moisture lifting up even some gustier winds and higher seas that moisture lifting up from the Bahamas so a strong tropical wave moving in modering for for some development there are some areas of dust and I'm watching the coast of Africa for that next system a lot of the models are picking up on some development as that one approaches the Eastern Caribbean so those two spots have my attention that's what I'll be tracking as we go over the next week or two and things will of course get more and more active as we go throughout the month of July which is what we expect this time of year so got you covered storm by storm thank you for sharing this channel be safe and have a good rest of your day

Channel: Mr. Weatherman

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Id: 2YYpOLOc1-M

Length: 15min 50sec (950 seconds)

Published: Tue Jun 25 2024