Caribbean Flood Threat as Cindy heads to Canada...

thank you very much for joining me I'm meteorologist Brian shields on this Monday I'm watching this here we are in the Caribbean and you see it here look at this blob of rain another tropical wave back behind that we're going to see this Southern storm track cranking up lifting a little bit more to the north a high chance of rain later this week we're going to be looking after that flood potential which will be very significant in some spots as some of this rain starts to work in so you see it for yourself there not a name system not organized some of the tropical waves back behind it do show some hints that eventually down the road there could be some organization now as I've been watching over here and the Eastern Pacific flaring up there was some heavy heavy rain flash flooding parts of Mexico yesterday thinking of you if you're dealing with that watching some of the rain parts of Nicaragua Honduras Panama Colombia seeing that scattered showers over toward the Bahamas now as far as the rain is concerned this new blob that is working in not organized but again we're going to see one strong tropical wave after another it's going to be this pattern which means Even in our Northern zones all the way down to the South we're going to see River and stream flooding Street flooding and spot stream flooding in spots as we go forward all the way through the end of the week so really mid-week through the end of the week that high threat of flooding and I want to break that down I'll break down the computer models ahead broader picture again as I mentioned more tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa this here what is the leftovers now again we've had a couple tropical storms out there these are the leftovers of Cindy the leftovers of Brett have worked just south of Jamaica working into Central America now now as expected Cindy fell apart those uh the wind shear very Gusty winds knocking across the tops of it knocking off the thunderstorms so again it lost its solid circulation now I want to get back to that in a second because it may regenerate now on the Pacific side there's going to be at least one or two name systems as we go throughout the week out here so monitoring that Moshe kind of parallel the coast but again a flood potential anywhere from Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala and Mexico heavy tropical rain those tropical downpours you know about that all right let me get back to what is left of Cindy now the Hurricane Center even seeing that it could regenerate it may not become tropical in nature again but at the least there's going to be some heavy rain parts of the Atlantic region of Canada and even some of this rain could be enhanced over toward Maine into Eastern New England and Northern New England as we work into later this week especially the end of the week so again it has weekend it's no longer a tropical storm but a lot of the models you see that little uptick as we go out in time these lines are the computer models they show a little bit of strengthening at least some organization down the road once it gets near Bermuda it could spin up again as it lifts up to the north so keeping this on track this is generally what I showed you yesterday my friends in Bermuda whatever this system is whatever's left of it should generally be e so choppy higher C's again not we're strengthening quickly that's some good news overall for Bermuda even if it were to bring even if we're to change direction a little bit and bring some rain in again not we're strengthening quickly but as it lifts to the north there should be some re-strengthening how much still a question mark because the water is of course cooler up here but again some are strengthening so at least anywhere from Nova Scotia even Newfoundland as we work our way down the road we could get some rain watching Maine the track of this uncertain at this point but the time frame looking Friday into Saturday high seas some Gusty winds and even if this doesn't become a true tropical storm again tropical storm conditions possible for parts of Eastern Canada I'll be highlighting that throughout the week all right back into the heavy rain in the Caribbean today look at that that's catching your eye right there this here as well Heavy Rain Honduras Nicaragua Costa Rica a Panama scattered showers parts of Mexico Hit or Miss showers Cuba Jamaica Cayman Islands Jamaica we had some areas getting some rain yesterday ABC islands will get a better chance of rain gradually as the week goes on still not a washout but again the rain chance will Trend up so let me take you out in time here and then I'll broaden out the picture for you look at this heavy rain lifting to the north this is our Tuesday afternoon Belize a better chance of rain into Jamaica scattered storms Dominican Republic and Haiti but there it is anywhere from Antigua Barbuda South that first blob working in rain chance higher Suriname Guyana Trinidad and Tobago Grenada Saint Vincent of the Grenadines Guadalupe Dominica Martinique will see some areas of heavy rain St Lucia in Barbados so again you see it there that rain that's off to the east Moves In for tomorrow now again the Virgin Islands British and U.S I'll get into that forecast specifically ahead not as much but by the time we get into late on Wednesday still watching some rain Central America but look how the rain is still round in spots Eastern Caribbean even trying to feed up towards Saint Kitts and Nevis Montserrat Saba Stacia Saint Martin British and U.S Virgin Islands Puerto Rico better chance of rain but you see it in the same spots and that's why that flood threat is still going to be around in just increasing as that week goes on and then we have another tropical way back behind us so again busy week I'll be tracking it all for you now want to break down the European model because it's doing a little bit better on timing I know this map could be a little hard to see this is Canada up here this is Bermuda this is what's left of Cindy so again as this works its way over time by midweek here's Bermuda I'll just put my finger there because I know this is a little hard to see and I'll stop the clock here this is by the time we get into Wednesday and you see the green here Wednesday night so again starting to build up a little bit of moisture trying to get a circulation again it's not going to restrain them quickly so Bermuda aside from some choppier Seas chance of some rain we'll keep an eye on that nothing super duper crazy and then this will will work to the north by Thursday and Friday once we get into Thursday and Friday we could get some strengthening here's Maine just keeping my hand on this to help you see it and again as you get over toward Nova Scotia get near Halifax spinning up and then working and by the time we get into Friday so even if it's not a Cindy again we're going to see some gustier winds that higher chance of rain and it could even try to inch its way a little bit more to the east I'll keep an eye on St John's but main Tour Nova Scotia that better chance of rain late this week got you covered with that now I want to do a couple things here here's the wide picture I want to get to the flooding in the Eastern Caribbean in a second this is just through tomorrow parts of Central America some spots could get 100 millimeters of rain that's not widespread but that's exactly what caused the flooding in parts of Mexico yesterday you get 100 millimeters of rain I think it's a millimeter 100 millimeters of rain which would be four inches of rain that is really that threshold that will cause some of that flooding so watching that and then as we work our way here look at that Heavy Rain higher totals again over the water but that's going to push in so let me go out in time now let me switch this map and I want to get into the Eastern Caribbean and show you a four day rain total so again this is over time now a lot of spots getting 100 millimeters but with that said over a period of time that's better than getting it all at once very quickly but we're going to see a good amount of rain moving in Guyana Trinidad and Tobago all the way through Grenada Saint Vincent the Grenadine St Lucia Barbados Martinique Dominica Guadalupe we could see that we are going to have that flood threat we will see some River stream flooding and some of the street flooding the roads getting flooded in some spots as we work our way this is again all the way through Thursday and even a better chance of Rainier the British U.S Virgin Islands Puerto Rico scattered showers and storms could give us 50 millimeters to 100 millimeters of rain Haiti in the Dominican Republic and we'll see some scattered showers in Jamaica Jamaica I'm going to keep an eye on this moisture that is just off to the West so let me break down these forecasts for you it's going to be very fluid I'm going to have to tweak things as we go throughout the week because it is so active again a little shift in where the rain goes by a few kilometers few miles that is going to make a big difference what happens near you so I'll be fine tuning in as we go throughout the week Jamaica by the middle of the week increasing 50 60 not a washout most of it's still off to the west but again rain chance going up and as I show you these forecasts know as we go out in time the rain chance just goes up Belize a 60 chance tomorrow a 70 percent chance by Wednesday Aruba no it's not high but by Wednesday a 30 percent chance and we'll see later this week how these tropical waves progress across the Caribbean a high 70 80 percent chance in Guyana Guyana that flood threat with us as we work our way into Trinidad and Tobago the flood threat increases tomorrow more so Wednesday into Thursday we'll get that 70 percent chance of rain tomorrow and Wednesday St Lucia tomorrow and Wednesday a 60 percent chance of wet weather you see that Trend again as I show you these forecasts Dominica 50 60 Chance by Wednesday showed you the computer model showing that rain that is working in and I always show you the computer models that I think have the best handle on the current weather situations I'm looking at everything I look at look at it all Saint Martin seba Stacia again rain chance creeping up by Wednesday a 40 percent chance of rain same thing over the British U.S Virgin Islands 20 chance today 30 percent chance tomorrow 50 percent chance by the time we get into Wednesday that would be a very welcome Puerto Rico by Wednesday up to a 60 percent chance of getting that wet weather moving in so tons going on watching the possibility of flooding parts of Central America Eastern Caribbean we have that blob moving in and more tropical waves back behind it plus watching Cindy now this season has been so active there have been four systems there was an unnamed system in January and then we had Arlene Brett and Cindy Cindy still could again spin up again so four systems an average season there are 14 named storms we are way above average as far as the activity goes but fortunately no name systems out there right now but again watching what's left over of Cindy and watching these strong tropical waves so again the areas of flooding this week can't stress that enough it is that time of year where quickly the water can rise I'll be watching that watching for development out of these tropical waves that first blob moving toward Trinidad and Tobago won't develop but a couple waves behind it have the potential of some development watching that throughout the week watching Cindy up toward Canada by the end of the week again it could spin up again at the least tropical storm conditions are possible by Friday in Nova Scotia and I was looking at very long-term stuff it looks like there'll be a surge of moisture later in July July looks to be very active the next name on the list the next name storm is Don so plenty going on and did my best to cover it for you if you have any questions comments leave them in the comments section put them out there I'll try to get to those throughout the day have a good rest of your day

Channel: Mr. Weatherman

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Length: 11min 12sec (672 seconds)

Published: Mon Jun 26 2023