La Niña is Coming…

thank you very much for joining me I'm meteorologist Brian Shields and thank you for putting a like on the videos to help spread them and of course taking the time out of your day to uh hit subscribe I do appreciate that as we build this weather Community leading up to this hurricane season definitely a hurricane season pattern now no signs of development though in any of this but we are seeing the train of tropical waves the train of tropical waves is typical this time of year usually that happens uh with that said they've been a little more robust than what we typically see for this time of year so I want to get into that the chances of overall development and I want to take a look at linia plus some heavier rain totals moving in but we have four tropical waves out there here are a couple new one that new one I was watching yesterday coming off the coast of Africa still kind of hanging together usually when you get these blobs moving off the coast of Africa this time of year they hit the cooler water and almost totally fall apart but these have been hanging tougher here's uh the fourth one of the season that's the third one and we've got a couple already uh in the Caribbean now and that's what I want to dive into we have this one here by the way in Honduras some of that rain is getting a little bit close now especially as we get into our Eastern end this is a gradual sign of that pattern changing we just need more of this to move toward Mexico and bise Guatemala El Salvador Nicaragua we've had some rain and storms around especially along the coast and over toward uh Costa Rica and Panama now Grenada we had some welcome rain that is such good news uh Dominica we've been seeing some of the rain it's this tropical wave here so this was the first one of the season this is the second one of the Season moving in Trinidad and Tobago we've had some showers some spots have been dry but others have had some showers in some of this moisture here what kind of happens this time of year some of it splits Works across into the Eastern Pacific where there is a chance of development I'll show you that in a moment and then some of this may try to feed up to the north so my friends in Jamaica parts of Cuba Cayman Islands uh even the southern Bahamas we're going to see that chance of rain getting higher so Bahamas back through Florida we've been so hot few showers and storms now and then most of the action has been down to the South but watching over toward a New Providence could see that rain chance eventually ticking up now in the short term this map I know is crazy there's a lot of colors on this map you see the red shading here here's Florida get back through the Bahamas Dominican Republic Puerto Rico get over toward Biz this uh red shading here this is windar which is our friend during the hurricane season windsh and Sahar and dust also our friend Sahar and dust is very tricky to see how much we're going to get as we get into the hurricane season but that's always a big variable I'm keeping an eye on but this wind sheare kind of knocks apart some of these tropical waves so they can't develop and that's a good thing now the tropical waves themselves we do like them because a lot of us need to get some of the rain but what happens as we get into a linia period so we're going from El Nino it's pretty much done now in over the next couple weeks we crank into linia it's just a a global pattern that happens uh but with linia in the at Atlantic Basin which is the Atlantic Ocean the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean overall that means less wind shear so we have a lot of wind shear right now but throughout the season that's going to relax and what that means is less wind shear usually means more hurricanes because the showers and storms could really build up without the wind sheare kind of knocking them apart so I do believe we're going to have a lot of uh tropical storms and hurricanes this year it doesn't mean we're going to get hit that's still a wait and see we need to see the pattern and there are other variables in the season just like some of the dust and pockets of dry air that I'll be watching now this is average on average in a linia uh summer uh a Lor hurricane season that we're going into there are usually 17 name storms and nine become hurricanes in an El Nino pattern usually on average there are 11 name storms and five become hurricanes so you could see with less wind sheare there's typically less uh or with lania in less wind share there's more Nam storms and that's the issue as we get into into the season I put out my forecast a few months ago still going with that we're going to see 20 22 upwards of 25 name storms out there there'll be a lot but it's a wait and see I don't there's not a scare Channel or anything like that uh there's nothing out there right now as far as any development at least on the Atlantic side but these two tropical waves let me show you that and the possibility of some development as we get over here on the Eastern Pacific but right now you see this tropical wave here bringing some rain scattered showers today and still watching the scattered showers today Barb St Lucia we're going to see a chance of some not as much as we get toward monserat Saba Antiga and Barbuda extreme Northeastern sections of the Caribbean a little quieter now let's go out in time and watch this as we work our way into our Friday see that rain getting closer to Honduras watching over toward Providencia uh over toward Nicaragua some rain of course Costa Rica and Panama Guyana and cam we've had the flooding and even in parts of Venezuela now and back toward Columbia while beli we have been just incredibly dry in the bad sense of the term and back through Mexico but this is Saturday I showed you how some of the moisture I was mentioning would kind of feed this way but also some of it's going to feed up to the north so by this weekend parts of Cuba near the Cayman Islands Jamaica Haiti a better chance of some rain Dominican Republic to you see that just kind of creeping in this weekend and that could include the Turks and Kos and even the Bahamas you see Central and Southern Bahamas by the time we get into Sunday the rain chance is going to start to uh go up so we'll monitor this but not seeing any signs of Oran ization because remember I just showed you the wind shear there's a lot of wind shear now this time of year the waterers well not this time of year but right now the water is very warm I was talking about that over the last couple videos so there's always a chance something can spin up if it does I'll let you know but either way you see the increased chance of rain here and then this catching my eye the next tropical wave is going to start to bring in more moisture for some of us in the Eastern Caribbean this weekend and early next week so let me swing you around with some of the potential rain totals you see Jamaica this is the uh next three days so this is uh today this is Friday into Saturday right on the edge of the rain but Saturday into Sunday some of this will be starting to move in elsewhere Cuba this is mainly isolated afternoon storms Bahamas Turks and Kos not as much so if you do get some rain 25 millimeters of rain or an inch of rain more in a few spots if you get some thunderstorms but deeper into the weekend I'll be watching that surge of moisture getting closer to Jamaica Haiti and the Dominican Republic so thank you for getting that information out across Jamaica and hispan and you see the rain chance not or the rain total is not as high but that doesn't mean the next couple of days we're not going to get some scattered showers and storms Porto Rico us British Virgin Islands over toward St Martin St Bart uh St kids and Nas we'll see a chance of some passing showers now as we get here as we work our way into Saturday we're going to see another uptick in the rain we still have some scattered showers around this morning in some spots in some of our Islands but as we work forward into Saturday we'll see another surge of moisture so you see over toward Trinidad we could get a few spots over 50 millim of rain or 2 Ines of rain and then this here obviously a problem Guyana Cam and now back toward Venezuela some very high totals please keep me post in the comments if you're getting even any flooding put your location and what you're getting and we are thinking of you with some of those higher total now this here A gradual pattern change for Central America still needs to creep up really into Mexico and back toward bise but you see Coastal sections of Nicaragua on the Caribbean side over toward uh the the Bay of campee and then Costa Rica Panama Providencia uh San Andreas and then even into extreme Eastern Honduras that rain chance is making the climb over the next few days we just need more of that so as these tropical waves continue to move across eventually as I mentioned late into the first week of June second week of June Central America back through Mexico we'll see a better chance of rain bigger storms pulling back toward the US not as much in Mexico though in the short term it is going to be so dry but back toward the Eastern Pacific there's that uh area of rain near Nicaragua and Costa Rica and some will lift to Jamaica other uh batches of it will move into the Eastern Pacific now as it moves into the Eastern Pacific there are some signs some of the modeling picking up on the conditions being uh conducive for some development so as we go over the next several days into next week there is a chance of some development back on the Eastern Pacific side as that area just continues to work its way off to the west but you see those rain totals so so low as we get back through my friend and B in back toward Mexico bigger storms popping up right in the middle of the US today that's where there's going to be uh more of the potential of severe weather even stretching back toward Texas as we go from today into tomorrow once again rounds of severe weather you see it right there that's what I was talking about right there uh Bermuda we're going to see a front passing by I'll show you that in the three-day forecast with that rain chance increasing and then we look down here as we get into Friday in the weekend there's some of the moisture moving there and then there it is streaming right up there getting closer to Jamaica by the time we get into our Saturday afternoon swinging up here kind of the top ends of the systems few scattered showers watching Maine toward Nova Scotia today New Finland we could get a shower most of the heaviest stuff will be just to the South for today then as we get into tomorrow some of that moisture Clips Us by New Finland and then we'll be waiting on that next system once we get into Saturday we'll start to see some of that getting closer as we work our way into Saturday look what happens with the rain here you can see a lot of it just down to the South you see it there and then another batch back to the West getting closer to the or moving through the great lakes and over toward Quebec but this rain here by Sunday is going to be lifting up to the north so rain chance will get higher Nova Scotia New Brunswick Prince Edward Island New Finland as we get into uh deeper into the weekend so Jamaica our rain chance is going to get higher later on Saturday still some scattered showers and storms the next few days but watching how close that moisture gets so uh let me know what you're getting or not getting the next couple of days even in the caban islands we've been very dry uh the rain chance is starting to uh tick up and the rain chance in Trinidad and Tobago by the time we get into Saturday starts to Trend up Sunday it looks like it could be higher uh in uh Trinidad with that next tropical weight moving in and you see a hint of that on Saturday in Barbados that rain chance will be higher not all day stuff but scattered showers you see it ticking up as we work our way into the weekend over towards St Lucia with that next tropical tropical wave again there's a couple more out there we have four right now and that pattern is going to continue Grenada this is already panned out we had some of the rain I've been watching that overnight and this morning and we'll see it trying to creep back up as we get into the weekend we get over towards St Vincent and the Grenadine and same thing with these tropical waves around 40% chance the next couple days in Martinique rain chance as we get into Dominique about a 60% chance we've already had some of the showers around for today 50% chance today in guadaloop and about a 20 to 30% chance not as much Antiga and Barbuda lifting up toward the Northeast Caribbean isol shower St kits nevas and matzo very isolated anguila and St Barts rain chance not super high yet St Martin Sab and staia 20 to 30% chance 40% chance today in Puerto Rico but we'll be watching uh as we work our way into Sunday to see some of that moisture over toward the Dr just how close it gets isolated showers us and British Virgin Islands over toward St Croy the Bahamas rain chance holding at generally 20% the next couple days but as we get into the weekend I showed you some of that rain that we be trying to lift into the southern Bahamas first and then into the northern Bahamas especially late Saturday into Sunday and you see that on Saturday rain chance getting higher in the Turks and Kos Dominican Republic rain chance will be getting higher this weekend same thing in Haiti and a monitor for any areas of flooding and watching those River Crossings carefully believes we're too dry but at least overall we're seeing some signs of the pattern doesn't help us if we're just simply dry right now uh but there is some rain trying to creep into H Honduras and that is helpful just to break the pattern 23 30% chance Aruba Kira and boner otherwise on the hot side and watching for some areas of flooding still in Guyana today there's been a lot of flooding the last few days suram rain chance stays elevated Cuba this is mainly isolated afternoon storms about a 90% chance today Costa Rica and Panama that rain chance is going to be higher 20 to 30% chance in Honduras starting to tick up a little bit higher more like a 40 50% chance uh in our extreme Eastern zones Inland we're going to be drier in Mexico City that rain chance has actually dropped off very isolated about a 10 uh to 30% chance ukat of Mexico not a lot either 40% chance of rain in Northern Venezuela you get a little bit more to the South that's where that rain chance is even higher 60% chance as we work our way into Bermuda tomorrow with that front passing by keep me post it in Bermuda so these tropical waves continue to pump in areas of rain on the Move no signs of development uh in the Atlantic Basin as of now I watch out for any signs of those changes Central America the patter gradually starting to break but it will still take a week or two into June to get that full pattern changed but at least these tropical waves are in sight and are starting to move in and by the way the hurricane season it starts June 1st so thank you for building this weather Community subscribing and sharing it with your friends and family I see that in the comments I hope you have a good and safe rest of your day

Channel: Mr. Weatherman

Views: 437,627

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Id: 0fwLWbKJkwA

Length: 13min 20sec (800 seconds)

Published: Thu May 30 2024