SHAPED PEOPLE, I MEAN, IT IS TOO LATE FOR ME PROBABLY, BUT BEFORE WE GET TO THAT, I THINK WE NEED TO THINK ABOUT ALL THIS. LET'S TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE MARKETS. JOINING US IS TOM THLEE, CO-FOUNDER AND CNBC CONTRIBUTOR. WE HAD RECENTLY I DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU CALL IT WITH TECHNOLOGY, BUT AT LEAST SOME OF THE BLOOM HAS COME OFF THE ROSE ON THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN OR A COUPLE OF THEM. AND ON TECHNOLOGY IN GENERAL. THOUGH THE NASDAQ RECENTLY HIT NEW HIGHS. DO YOU SEE ANY TROUBLE THERE OR AT LEAST A MODERATION OF THE GAINS FROM RECENT YEARS? >> WELL, I THINK IT IS UNDERSTANDABLE THAT TECHNOLOGY COULD BE CONSOLIDATING SOME OF THE GAINS BECAUSE THE GAINS SINCE OCTOBER HAVE BN PRODIGIOUS. I THINK IT HAS BEEN HEALTHY BECAUSE SMALL CAPS, INDUSTRIALS, OTHER SECTORS STARTED TO LEAVE. I THINK IT IS A SIGN THE MARKET IS BROADENING. I DON'T THINK TECHNOLOGY VALUATIONS ARE THE BUBBLE. I THINK IT HAS BEEN HEALTHY. >> REALLY? SO THAT IS THE HALF EMPTY, HALF FULL VIEWPOINT THAT WE -- EITHER ONE WE HAVE HAD PEOPLE EXPRESS. THE GENERALS COULD COME BACK DOWN TO THE SOLDIERS, OR THEY COULD BROADEN OUT IN THE ADVANCE AND IT COULD CONTINUE. DO YOU THINK THAT THIS ELECTION YEAR, 2024, WILL BE SIMILAR TO 2023 OR IS THAT IS PRETTY RARE AND PRETTY UNLIKELY TO BE REPEATED THIS YEAR? >> IT IS A QUESTION CLIENTS ARE ASKING US. THE STOCK MARKET SEEMS A LOT STRONGER THIS YEAR THAN LAST YEAR. WE HAVE HAD FOUR CONSECUTIVE MONTHS OF GAINS, WHICH MARK NEWTON, OUR HEAD OF TECHNICAL STRATEGY SAYS IS VERY RARE. WE ALREADY HAD A PRETTY NICE JANUARY, VERY STRONG FEBRUARY. TO ME, IF THE MARKET GAINS 20% THIS YEAR, WHICH WOULD MATCH WHAT IT DID IN 2023, IT WOULDN'T SURPRISE ME, BUT I THINK THE CHARACTER WOULD BE VERY DIFFERENT THAT IT WOULD BE A LOT MORE SECTORS PARTICIPATING AND IN SOME WAYS I THINK IF WE ARE UP 20% THIS YEAR, SMALL CAPS COULD BE UP A LOT MORE, AS MUCH AS 50%. >> WE'RE NOT GOING TO HAVE A DOWN YEAR. THAT YOU'RE TAKING OFF THE TABLE OR WHAT IS IT THAT WOULD HAVE TO HAPPEN TO THROW THIS -- YOUR SOMEWHAT BULLISH OR PRETTY BULLISH FORECAST IN JEOPARDY. WHAT WOULD HAVE TO HAPPEN? >> I THINK TWO THINGS WOULD PROBABLY DERAIL AN EQUITY MOVE OF 20% THIS YEAR. SOMETHING EVEN PUSHING THE MARKETS DOWN. ONE WOULD BE IF INFLATION REASSERTS ITSELF IN A WAY THAT THE FED HAS TO REVERSE ITS ACTION AND BECOME QUITE HAWKISH AGAIN. I THINK THAT WOULD TERRIFY MARKETS. THE SECOND IS IF MONETARY POLICY IS SO RESTRICTIVE NOW THAT WE SLIP INTO A RECESSION. I DON'T THINK WE'RE LOSING THAT MUCH ECONOMIC MOMENTUM, BUT EITHER WOULD BE NEGATIVE FOR STOCKS. >> OKAY. AND SO IT BROADENS OUT, DO YOU HAVE A FEEL FOR INTEREST RATES? HOW IMPORTANT IS THAT TO YOU BECAUSE WE HAVE A JOBS NUMBER TOMORROW, THAT COULD MOVE RATES AND THE PROSPECTS FOR CUTS LATER THIS YEAR. YOU PROBABLY WOULD BE MORE BULLISH IF YOU COULD SAY WE'RE GOING TO HAVE FOUR CUTS THIS YEAR, WOULDN'T YOU? >> YES. TO ME, MORE CUTS WOULD BE EASIER FOR MARKETS TO SORT OF FEEL COMFORTABLE BECAUSE IT WOULD ALSO HAVE -- AS YOU'RE POINTING OUT, DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INTEREST RATES. I'VE BEEN PRETTY SURPRISED THAT INTEREST RATES HAVE MOVED UP THIS YEAR AND THE STOCK MARKET HAS BEEN ABLE TO SORT OF LOOK PAST THAT BECAUSE I THINK THEY'RE VIEWING IT AS RATES ARE RISING FOR THE RIGHT REASONS, BUT, YEAH, YOU KNOW, BETTER SCENARIO IS, OF COURSE, INFLATION IS FALLING VISIBLY ENOUGH FOR THE FED TO BEGIN CUTTING WITH CONFIDENCE. >> WHEN YOU -- WHEN BITCOIN WAS 4,000 AND CAME DOWN FROM 20,000 AND YOU USED TO COME ON AND SAY, YEAH, BY THE END OF THE YEAR IT GOING BACK TO 20,000, I DON'T KNOW HOW YOU FEEL CONFIDENT DOING THOSE THINGS. YOU'VE DONE IT AGAIN, REALLY, AND WITH THE -- I DON'T KNOW WHAT DID YOU SAY BY THE END OF NEXT YEAR? WHERE COULD IT BE IN YOUR VIEW? >> I THINK THE -- YOU KNOW, SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 12, 18 MONTHS, BITCOIN CAN BE OVER 150,000. BUT THAT'S BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, BACK THE DROP FOR BITCOIN IS SO MUCH MORE FAVORABLE TODAY, WE GOT MORE VISIBLE DEMAND FROM THE SPOT ETF, AND WE KNOW THE SUPPLY DYNAMIC IS IMPROVING WITH THE HALVING COMING UP, LESS THAN A MONTH AWAY. IT DOES HELP THAT THE FED IS BECOMING DOVISH. THAT'S EASIER MONETARY POLICY. AND I THINK FROM A REGULATORY PERSPECTIVE, WE HAD SO MANY HAMMERS DROPPED IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS, 18 MONTHS, THAT UNLESS IT IS GOING TO BE WORSE OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS, BITCOIN ALREADY FACED SORT OF THE PEAK OF REGULATORY BACKLASH. >> AND IT GOT THROUGH THE OLD HIGHS. WE HAD A TRUE BITCOIN BULL ON EARLIER SAYING THAT IN PREVIOUS INSTANCES WHERE IT HAS REACHED A NEW HIGH THAT IT DOUBLES FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THAT. HE SAID 18 DAYS, THE MINUTE IT HITS A NEW HIGH, IT SOLD OFF $10,000 TO 59, BACK TO 67 TODAY. HOW LONG BEFORE IT DOUBLES AGAIN? COULD YOU SEE THAT IN THE NEAR TERM, ANOTHER DOUBLING? >> NEAR TERM, IT IS -- IT IS HARD TO KNOW NEAR TERM, JOE. I KNOW OUR DIGITAL STRATEGY PRO SAID IT IS DIFFICULT TO CONSOLIDATE AFTER MAKING A NEW HIGH. HE THINKS FOR THE NEXT NINE OR TEN DAYS WE'LL BE CHOPPING AROUND HERE. BUT, WE SAW IT WITH THE SPOT BITCOIN ETF INFLOWS. BLACKROCK SEEING 800 MILLION IN INFLOWS. I THINK AS LONG AS THERE IS STRONG SPOT DEMAND AND AREN'T EAGER SELLERS, YOU DO HAVE A MARKET THAT IS OUT OF BALANCE, THAT THERE IS TOO MUCH DEMAND FOR BITCOIN, NOT ENOUGH SUPPLY CREATED THROUGH THE BLOCK REWARD. >> RIGHT. AND AS A MEASURE OF RISK ON, I GUESS THE NASDAQ SOMETIMES TRACKS BITCOIN, DOESN'T IT? >> YES. IT IS A STUDY WE DID SEVERAL YEARS AGO SHOWED THAT THE BEST YEARS FOR BITCOIN OCCURRED WHEN THE S&P AND THE NASDAQ HAD THEIR BEST YEAR. I THINK IT DOES SORT OF CONFIRM THE IDEA THAT BITCOIN IS A RISK ON ASSET TODAY. >> DID YOU NOTICE THE OTHER DAY THAT "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL" AND THE HEADLINE, IT WAS DESCRIBING THE MOVE IN BITCOIN AND IT SAID A NEW HIGH FOR THE CURRENCY. I HAD NEVER SEEN THAT IN "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL" BEFORE. USUALLY I DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU CALL IT, I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO CALL IT REALLY, BUT FRONT PAGE, IT SAID CURRENCY. IS IT A CURRENCY? >> I MISSED THAT, THAT'S A GREAT TERM. IT CERTAINLY IS BETTER THAN SOMEONE CALLING IT SARDINE CANS OR TULIP BUBBLES. BUT TO ME, IT IS -- >> SO, JUST TO -- JUST TO PUT A FINE POINT ON THIS ISSUE ABOUT THE CORRELATION WITH THE MARKETS, HOW DO YOU -- YOU'RE SAYING IT IS CORRELATED TO THE MARKETS, AND WE HAVE A MARKET THAT IS DOING QUITE WELL, AND AS WE SAID, IT APPEARS THE ECONOMY IS DOING QUITE WELL, THE IDEA THAT WE DO VERY WELL IN A BAD ECONOMY, WHICH IS WHAT A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE BEEN TRYING TO SUGGEST, I THINK ON THIS BROADCAST EARLIER TODAY, IS THAT RIGHT OR WRONG? >> YOU KNOW, I THINK BITCOIN IS A HEDGE AGAINST UNSOUND MONEY. AND THAT'S WHY WHEN JOE, YOU KNOW, TALKED ABOUT HIS CURRENCY, THAT'S HOW MANY PEOPLE DO VIEW IT BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, BITCOIN HAS ITS OWN UNIT VALUE AND IT IS MEASURED AGAINST DOLLARS AND I THINK IT IS THE SAME WAY PEOPLE MEASURE GOLD AGAINST DOLLARS. SO, I THINK IF THERE IS AN EVENT AND WE HAVE SEEN IT IN TURKEY OR VENEZUELA, THAT WHEN THOSE CURRENCIES COLLAPSE, BITCOIN HAS BEEN A WAY FOR PEOPLE TO PRESERVE WEALTH.
