>> FROM THE WORLD OF POLITICS
TO THE WORLD OF BUSINESS. THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER." ♪ LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D.C.
KAILEY: FROM BLOOMBERG'S WASHINGTON, TV
STUDIOS WELCOME TO BALANCE OF POWER ALONGSIDE JOE MATHIEU.
JOE: DOWN THE TROUBLE RE-AIRS GRIEVANCES IN A SPEECH AFTER
HIS FELONY CONVICTION. PRESIDENT BIDEN SAID IT
REAFFIRMED NO ONE IS ABOVE THE LAW. WE WILL ASSESS THE
RAMIFICATIONS FOR BOTH OF THEIR CAMPAIGNS WITH LARRY SABADO. >> BIDEN ALSO ANNOUNCING A NEW
ISRAELI CEASE-FIRE TO HAMAS. A THREE-PHASE PLAN AND EVOLVING
-- IN EXCHANGE FOR THE RELEASE OF HOSTAGES.
EVELYN FARKAS JOINS US WITH MORE. JOE:
DATA THIS MORNING SHOWING COOLING IN THE FED'S PREFERRED
GAUGE OF INFLATION. REACTION FROM JARED BERNSTEIN
OF THE WHITE HOUSE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISORS.
WE WILL HAVE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE ECONOMY OF SPAIN, WITH THAT
COUNTRY'S ECONOMIC MINISTER. WELCOME TO FRIDAY.
IT HAS BEEN A WEEK. THE STORY CONTINUING TO EVOLVE
IN THE LEGAL JOURNEY OF DONALD TRUMP OF WHAT WAS PROMISED TO
BE A NEWS CONFERENCE. NOT A SINGLE QUESTION WAS ASKED.
KIND OF A RE-AIRING OF GRIEVANCES.
JOE BIDEN HAS HIS FIRST CHANCE TO WEIGH IN ON THIS. >> AND HE DID SO, SPEAKING FROM
THE WHITE HOUSE LARGELY ABOUT THE MIDDLE EAST, BUT BEGINNING
HIS REMARKS IN THE STATE DINING ROOM WITH REFERENCE TO WHAT
HAPPENED IN NEW YORK YESTERDAY. THE CONVICTION OF DONALD TRUMP. >> THEY FOUND DONALD TRUMP
GUILTY ON ALL 34 FELONY COUNTS. NOW THEY HAVE BEEN GIVEN THE
OPPORTUNITY TO APPEAL THAT DECISION LIKE EVERYONE ELSE HAS
THAT OPPORTUNITY. THAT IS HOW THE AMERICAN SYSTEM
OF JUSTICE WORKS. AS A RECKLESS, AS DANGEROUS, AS
IRRESPONSIBLE FOR ANYONE TO SAY IT WAS RIGGED JUST BECAUSE THEY
DON'T LIKE THE VERDICT. JOE: THE PRESIDENT FROM A SHORT TIME
AGO AS WE NOW BRING IN A REPORTER ROUNDTABLE WITH KAYLA
GARDINER AND GREGORY KORTE. GREAT TO SEE YOU BOTH AFTER A
WEEK WE HAVE SEEN AND HEARD A LOT.
YOU COVER THE WHITE HOUSE FOR A LIVING. IT WAS A CAREFULLY
CHOREOGRAPHED SPEECH AND A REAL DECISION BY THE BIDEN WHITE
HOUSE TO ADDRESS THIS IN FRONT OF WHAT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE AN
ANNOUNCEMENT ON A POTENTIAL CEASE-FIRE IN THE MIDDLE EAST.
IS IT A NEW APPROACH TO DONALD TRUMP'S ISSUE TALKING ABOUT IT
OUT LOUD? >> IT HAS BEEN A CAREFUL
ORCHESTRATION BY THE WHITE HOUSE AND THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN.
WE HAVE SEEN THEM IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ENGAGE IN MORE
THAN WE HAVE BEFORE. WE HAVE SEEN TIME AND AGAIN
FROM THE PODIUM, THEY SAY THEY DO NOT COMMENT ON ONGOING LEGAL
TRIALS. YET WE SAW THE CAMPAIGN AT THE
COURTHOUSE THIS WEEK. THEY ARE BASICALLY SAYING WE
KNOW THE MEDIA IS COVERING THIS INCESSANTLY.
WE WANT A PIECE OF THAT. THEY ALSO SAY THE MESSAGE AND
CORE TO BIDEN'S REELECTION PITCH IS A THREAT TO DEMOCRACY. THAT IS WHAT YOU SAW HIM DO,
UNDERMINE TRUMP'S ATTACKS AGAINST HIM, BLAMING HIM AND
DEMOCRATS FOR THE LEGAL CHALLENGES AGAINST HIM. >> WE SAW TRUMP REAIRING VERY
SIMILAR RHETORIC IN REGARD TO THOSE ACCUSATIONS.
EVEN THOUGH THEY LARGELY ARE FALSE.
HE ALSO TOOK THE OPPORTUNITY TO TAKE A VICTORY LAP ABOUT THE
FUNDRAISING HIS CAMPAIGN HAS BEEN ABLE TO DO OFF OF THE BACK
OF THE JURY'S VERDICT. HERE WAS HIM AT THE NEWS
CONFERENCE. >> LAST NIGHT -- WE JUST GOT A
REPORT THIS MORNING IN THE HISTORY OF POLITICS, I BELIEVE,
MAYBE I'M WRONG. SOMEBODY WILL FIND THAT I'M
WRONG, BUT I DON'T THINK SO. THEY RAISE WITH SMALL MONEY DONORS, MEANING LIKE $21, $42,
$53, $38, A RECORD $39 MILLION IN ABOUT 10 HOURS. KAILEY:
HE SAID $39 MILLION, THE CAMPAIGN SAYS IT WAS $34.8
MILLION. NONETHELESS, THAT IS A VERY
SHORT TIME WITH A LOT OF MONEY. IS THERE EVIDENCE A GUILTY
VERDICT ONLY WORKS TO SERVE DONALD TRUMP'S CAMPAIGN EFFORT? >> WE SAW THIS TIME AND AGAIN
LAST YEAR WITH THE SUCCESSIVE INDICTMENTS.
TWO THINGS HAPPENED, HE GOT A LITTLE BIT OF A BUMP IN THE
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY POLLS, AND HE ALSO RAISE A LOT OF MONEY.
I THINK WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT IT AT THIS TABLE, THE FUNDRAISING
MACHINE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN.
THE SMALLER DOLLAR DONORS WERE GETTING FATIGUED.
IF YOU EVER GET ON THE POLITICAL EMAIL LIST, THE TEXTS
ON YOUR PHONE, THEY ARE INCESSANT.
YOU CANNOT KEEP GIVING AND GIVING. BUT SOMETHING LIKE THIS
HAPPENS, IT ENERGIZES HIS SUPPORTERS. HE NEEDED THE SHOT IN THE ARM
BECAUSE HE HAS BEEN TRAILING PRESIDENT BIDEN'S FUNDRAISING
MONTH OVER MONTH UNTIL THIS PAST MONTH.
BIDEN HAS A WAR CHEST TWICE AS BIG AS HIS.
HE NEEDS TO CATCH UP WITH THE FUNDRAISING. JOE: WAS IT SMART FOR JOE BIDEN TO
FRONTLOAD HIS ANNOUNCEMENT ON AN ISRAELI CEASE-FIRE BY
TALKING ABOUT DONALD TRUMP'S LEGAL PROBLEMS? >> HE'S GETTING MORE AGGRESSIVE.
I THOUGHT HIS REMARKS WERE MEASURED.
IT IS LESS ABOUT TRUMP AND MORE ABOUT THE INTEGRITY OF THE
LEGAL SYSTEM HE FEELS IS UNDER ATTACK BY TRUMP. JOE BIDEN IS AN
INSTITUTIONALIST. HE'S WORKED IN WASHINGTON THE LAST 50 YEARS.
HE THINKS THE RULE OF LAW IS IMPORTANT.
THAT WAS HIS OFFICIAL MESSAGE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE PODIUM.
WE WILL SEE IF IT IS A DIFFERENT MESSAGE WHEN HE GETS
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL. KAILEY: PERHAPS NOT SO MUCH ABOUT THE
WORDS THE PRESIDENT SAID IN REGARD TO TRUMP'S CONVICTION,
BUT WHEN HE WAS ASKED BY ONE OF THE REPORTERS IN THE ROOM HOW
HE FELT ABOUT TRUMP'S CHARACTERIZATION OF HIM BEING A
POLITICAL PRISONER AND BIDEN BEING AT FAULT. IN THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN HAS
SEIZED ON THAT AND TURNED IT INTO AN AD CIRCULATING ON
SOCIAL MEDIA. PRESIDENT BIDEN NOT ONLY
ADDRESSING DONALD TRUMP'S CONVICTION, BUT ALSO SHARED A
NEW PLAN FOR A CEASE-FIRE AGREEMENT BETWEEN ISRAEL AND
HAMAS. >> THIS IS TRULY A DECISIVE
MOMENT. HAMAS SAYS IT WANTS A CEASE-FIRE. THIS DEAL IS AN OPPORTUNITY TO
PROVE WHETHER THEY REALLY MEAN IT.
HAMAS NEEDS TO TAKE THE DEAL. THIS IS A THREE-PHASE PLAN THAT
WILL CONTINUE WITH A SIX-WEEK CEASE-FIRE.
THE PRESIDENT SAID ISRAEL OFFERED IT TO HAMAS THROUGH
QATAR AS AN INTERMEDIARY. ARE THEY LIKELY TO TAKE IT? >> IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW
SIGNIFICANT THE BILL CAN BE. THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT HAMAS
WANTED. THEY WANT A PATH TO A PERMANENT
CEASE-FIRE TO AGREE TO ANYTHING. THEY SAID PUBLICLY THAT THEY
WANT ISRAEL TO STOP FIGHTING BEFORE THE NEGOTIATIONS.
WE HAVE BEEN TOLD BY ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS THEY
ARE HOPEFUL HAMAS MAY BE MORE OPEN TO THE DEAL THAN THEY ARE
SIGNALING. JOE: THAT IS IMPORTANT REPORTING.
IT WOULD MEAN THE RETURN OF HOSTAGES AND PALESTINIAN
PRISONERS. IF THIS HAPPENED THE WAY JOE
BIDEN OUTLINED, IT IS NOT LOST HE WAS THE ONE MAKING THE
ANNOUNCEMENT AS OPPOSED TO ISRAEL.
DOES IT CREATE A DIFFERENT FEELING AMONG PROGRESSIVE
DEMOCRATS WHO HAVE BEEN VERY UPSET WITH HIM OVER HIS ISRAEL
POLICY QUESTION MARK >> TO YOUR POINT, BECAUSE IT IS A
THREE-PHASE PLAN, IT WILL BE CONDITIONAL. BUT HE MADE THE BIG APPEAL.
IS THAT EVERYONE AROUND THE WORLD WHO HAS BEEN CALLING FOR
THE CEASE-FIRE, HE'S SPEAKING TO SO MANY VOTERS WHO ARE
DISGRUNTLED BY MISHANDLING THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. >> A DOMESTIC AUDIENCE HE WAS
SPEAKING TO, IS IT ENOUGH TO HEAR HIM TALKING ABOUT THE
CEASE-FIRE DEAL, OR POLITICALLY YOU NEED TO SEE THE CEASE-FIRE
DONE PERMANENTLY BEFORE NOVEMBER. >> I SEE TWO PARTS TO THE
FOREIGN POLICY PROBLEM THE PRESIDENT HAS IN TERMS OF
DOMESTIC POLICY. THERE'S A LARGE NUMBER OF
LARGELY YOUNG, LARGELY PROGRESSIVE, MULTIETHNIC VOTERS
WHO ARE DEMOCRATS WHO WOULD VOTE FOR JOE BIDEN WHO THINK
HE'S TOO CLOSE TO THE BENJAMIN NETANYAHU GOVERNMENT, HAS PUT
HIS FINGER ON THE SCALE FOR ISRAEL IN THIS CONFLICT. THE OTHER PROBLEM IS HE'S
SPENDING TOO MUCH TIME ON FOREIGN POLICY IN AN ERA WITH
HIGH INFLATION, PEOPLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND
IMMIGRATION. THEY ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE
DOMESTIC ISSUES. IT IS A REAL PROBLEM.
I HEAR IT FROM THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN THEY UNDERSTAND THE
PRESIDENT HAS TO GET REENGAGED ON DOMESTIC ISSUES.
IT IS HARD WHEN HE'S COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF AND HAS TO
PAY ATTENTION TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN ISRAEL, UKRAINE, CHINA,
AROUND THE WORLD. KAILEY: GREGORY KORTE HE AND KAYLA
GARDINER. A LOT TO PAY ATTENTION TO.
THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. COMING UP, DIVING INTO THE
POLITICAL FALLOUT FOR FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP AND PRESIDENT
BIDEN IN LIGHT OF TRUMP'S CONVICTION ON 34 FELONY COUNTS
WITH LARRY SABATO. THAT IS NEXT ON "BALANCE OF
POWER." KAILEY:
THIS IS GOING TO EMBOLDEN THE BASE OF EACH PARTY.
AND WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY WAS REPUBLICANS ON CAPITOL HILL HAD
ONE OF THEIR MOST SUCCESSFUL FUNDRAISING DAYS IN HISTORY.
GREAT FROM A FUNDRAISING PERSPECTIVE, EMBOLDENING THE
BASE. JOE: THAT WAS LIBBY CANTWELL, PIMCO
MANAGING DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC POLICY.
WITH YOUR THOUGHTS ON HOW DONALD TRUMP'S CRIMINAL
CONVICTION MAY EMBOLDEN DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICAN BASIS.
I'M JOE MATHIEU ALONGSIDE KAILEY LEINZ IN WASHINGTON.
THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US THIS EVENING.
AS WE BRING IN LARRY SABATO. GREAT TO SEE YOU, WELCOME BACK
TO BLOOMBERG. I'M STRUGGLING, MAYBE YOU CAN
HELP ME OUT. I KEEP HEARING HOW THIS WILL
HELP DONALD TRUMP, POTENTIALLY BEING THE FIRST PRESIDENT TO BE
A CONVICTED FELON. I CAN ONLY THINK OF SATURDAY
NIGHT LIVE IN THE OLD DAYS, JOHN LEVITZ AS MICHAEL DUKAKIS
SAYING I CAN'T BELIEVE I'M LOSING TO THIS GUY. >> YOU CAN'T JUDGE BASED ON
WHATEVER IS HAPPENING AT THE END OF MAY OR EVEN JUNE.
THAT'S GET PAST THE CONVENTIONS. THE POLITICAL ANALYSIS GETS
SERIOUS. WHAT HAPPENED WITH THE
CONVICTIONS FOR DONALD TRUMP? SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM
EFFECTS FOR BOTH PARTIES. I THINK YOUR GUEST JUST
MENTIONED THE FUNDRAISING ADVANTAGE FOR REPUBLICANS.
THEY CLAIM TO RAISE $35 MILLION IN LESS THEN 24 HOURS.
INCREDIBLE TOTAL. THAT IS THE IMMEDIATE EFFECT
READ I DON'T KNOW WHAT DEMOCRATS HAVE RAISED.
PROBABLY LESS THAN THAT. AS WE GO ON, AS YOU SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TO HELP PEOPLE INTERPRET THESE CONVICTIONS AND
OTHER LEGAL ACTIONS THAT MAY HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND NOVEMBER.
THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LESS POSITIVE EFFECT FOR DONALD
TRUMP. AND JOE BIDEN WILL HAVE HIS OWN
EFFECTS. KAILEY:
WE ALSO YOUR INITIAL REACTION YESTERDAY WHEN THE VERDICT CAME
DOWN. ALL OF YOUR POLES JUST TURNED
TO DUST. DEARLY YOU THINK SOMETHING WILL CHANGE BECAUSE
OF THIS CONVICTION. I JUST WONDER YOUR THOUGHTS ON
HOW MUCH IT MATTERS WHO IT CHANGES FOUR.
IF IT REFERRED OF FRIES THE OPINIONS OF THE BASIS OF EACH
PARTY, ALREADY MORE DECIDED. IF THEY WERE GOING TO VOTE FOR
DONALD TRUMP OR JOE BIDEN, WHAT ABOUT THOSE WHO ARE UNDECIDED?
HOW SMALL IS THAT BASKET? >> 4% TO 6%.
TRUE HARD-CORE UNDECIDED. BY UNDECIDED, BETWEEN BIDEN AND
TRUMP, THEY HAVE NOT DECIDED WHETHER THEY WILL VOTE FOR A
THIRD-PARTY OR INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE.
MAYBE THEY HAVE NOT DECIDED WHETHER THEY WILL VOTE OR NOT.
A LOT OF DECISIONS TO BE MADE. PEOPLE GRADUALLY MAKE THEM,
ACCELERATING AFTER BOTH CONVENTIONS.
THAT IS THE GROUP WE ARE TALKING ABOUT.
IT IS NOT VERY BIG. IT IS SMALLER THAN USUAL.
THEY KNOW A GREAT DEAL ABOUT DONALD TRUMP AND JOE BIDEN.
THEY HAD TO CONSIDER THAT IN 2020 THEY HAVE CONSIDERED
DONALD TRUMP SINCE 2015. ON THE WHOLE, I WOULD SAY THAT
RIGHT NOW, IT IS BENEFITING TRUMP MORE THAN BIDEN.
BUT POLLING IS EPHEMERAL. SO ARE THE EFFECTS OF MAJOR
EVENTS. WE ALREADY KNOW ON THE CALENDAR, WE HAVE A MAJOR
DEBATE COMING EARLIER THAN EVER BEFORE AT THE END OF JUNE.
IN JULY, TRUMP WILL HAVE TO MAKE HIS VICE PRESIDENTIAL
CHOICE. ONE ASSUMES HE HAS -- THE JUDGE
WILL GIVE HIM A SENTENCE RIGHT BEFORE THE REPUBLICAN
CONVENTION IN MID JULY. THE DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION IN
LATE AUGUST. A FORMAL KICK OFF TO THE CAMPAIGN, WHICH IS
SUPPOSED TO BE ON LABOR DAY. ON THE SECOND DEBATE SHORTLY
AFTER THAT. ALL OF THESE ARE FIXED EVENTS.
AND YOU HAVE A LOT OF THINGS WE DON'T KNOW THAT WILL HAPPEN.
THE CEASE-FIRE IN THE MIDDLE EAST, JUST TO MENTION ONE.
REMINDING US OF THE UNCERTAINTY, I SUSPECT IT GOES
DOWN. IT WAS REALLY STRUCK BY THE
RESPONSE AND HOW QUICKLY IT CAME FROM REPUBLICAN LAWMAKERS.
THIS WAS ALL BREAKING NEWS. BY 510, THE SPEAKER OF THE
HOUSE HAD A STATEMENT OUT ON DONALD TRUMP'S VERDICT.
SHAMEFUL CHARGES HE SAID. SHAMEFUL DAY IN AMERICAN
HISTORY, HE CALLED IT. WHAT CAN BE THE DOWN BALLOT
EFFECT AS WE TALK ABOUT POTENTIAL BENEFITS FOR DONALD
TRUMP? BUT FOR REPUBLICANS TRYING TO
RIDE THE COATTAILS OF A CONVICT? >> IT IS A DANGEROUS PLACE TO
BE. TOO MANY REPUBLICANS JUMPED TOO
QUICKLY AND I THINK BRASHLY IN DONALD TRUMP'S DIRECTION.
ONE UNDERSTANDS WHY ANY CANDIDATE FOR VICE PRESIDENT
MAY HAVE SAID THE THINGS THEY SAID RIGHT AWAY.
I CAN SEE WHY THE SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE DID IT.
HE IS DEPENDING A GREAT DEAL ON DONALD TRUMP TO STAY IN OFFICE
FOR THE FULL TERM AS SPEAKER. BUT IT IS A DANGEROUS PLACE TO
BE. WITH DONALD TRUMP, EVERY SINGLE
DAY, HE'S GOING TO SAY SOMETHING CONTROVERSIAL OR
SOMETHING OUTRAGEOUS, OR DO SOMETHING CONTROVERSIAL OR
OUTRAGEOUS. I FEEL LIKE THEY HAVE TO STICK
WITH HIM RIGHT NOW. FOR DEMOCRATS, I SUPPOSE THEY
ARE STICKING WITH JOE BIDEN. BUT THEY ARE NOT AS LARGE, NOT
AS GREAT OR THE DANGERS ARE LESS BECAUSE JOE BIDEN IS LESS
RASH. KAILEY: YOU JUST MENTIONED THE IDEA YOU
UNDERSTAND POTENTIALLY WHY PEOPLE WANT TO BE VICE
PRESIDENT WOULD BE LOUDER ON THIS THAN OTHERS.
DOES THE FACT DONALD TRUMP HAS CAMPAIGN AS A CONVICTED FELON
MAKE THE OTHER PERSON ON THE TICKET MORE IMPORTANT IF THERE
IS SOMETHING OF A CRACK IN THE TEFLON ARMOR? >> I'M NOT SURE VICE PRESIDENT
ALWAYS MATTER ALL THAT MUCH. BUT IT WOULD BE USEFUL TO HAVE
THE REPUBLICAN TICKET THAT CAN PROJECT STABILITY WHO MAY HAVE
SOME INDEPENDENCE AT LEAST IN THEIR PAST.
THE 78-YEAR-OLD CANDIDATE, OR 78 IN TWO WEEKS SHOULD FALTER
WHETHER IT IS LEGALLY OR IN HEALTH THAT THAT PERSON WILL
HAVE THE CONFIDENCE OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE GOING FORWARD.
THE SAME IS TRUE ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE WITH A
CANDIDATE WHO WILL BE 82 IN NOVEMBER.
THESE CANDIDATES ARE VERY OLD. IT DOES CHANGE THE PICTURE FOR
THE ELECTORATE. BUT YOU ALWAYS HAVE TO MAINTAIN
IN A PARTY SOME DISTANCE BETWEEN YOURSELF AND THE
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE HOPING THAT THE COATTAIL EFFECT WON'T
BE AS SERIOUS AS SOMETIMES IT IS.
YOU CAN ADD TWO OR THREE POINTS OR SUBTRACT TWO OR THREE POINTS
FROM THE PEOPLE DOWN BALLOT. HOUSE AND SENATE, GOVERNOR,
STATE LEGISLATURE. PARTIES TEND TO RISE AND FALL
TOGETHER ANYMORE BECAUSE WE HAVE INTENSE PARTISAN
IDENTIFICATION. THAT HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE
PAST DECADE OR SO. VERY DIFFICULT TO AVOID
ENTANGLEMENT WITH THE PARTY'S PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE. KAILEY: LARRY SABATO, THANK YOU FOR
JOINING US. WE APPRECIATE YOUR INSIGHT.
COMING UP. EUROPEAN ECONOMIES PREPARING
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A SECOND TRUMP ADMINISTRATION DESPITE
YESTERDAY'S CONVICTION. UP NEXT, A CONVERSATION WITH
SPAIN'S ECONOMY ADMINISTER. THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER." >> WE ARE GOING TO MAKE AMERICA
GREAT AGAIN. WE ARE GOING TO MAKE IT BETTER
THAN EVER BEFORE. NOVEMBER 5, REMEMBER, NOVEMBER
5 IS THE MOST IMPORTANT DAY IN THE HISTORY OF OUR COUNTRY.
KAILEY: THAT WAS DONALD TRUMP EARLIER
TEASING AHEAD TO AN ELECTION THAT WILL NOT JUST BE IMPORTANT
FOR THE U.S., BUT THE OTHER COUNTRIES AS WELL AS THEY
CONSIDER POTENTIAL POLICIES A SECOND TRUMP ADMINISTRATION
COULD BRING. JOINING US IS SPAIN'S ECONOMY
MINISTER WHO IS HERE WITH US IN OUR WASHINGTON, D.C. STUDIOS.
THEY QUEUE FOR JOINING US HERE. WE HEARD FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP
TALKING ABOUT MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN.
OFTEN HE SAYS AMERICA FIRST. WE HAVE SEEN THAT BRING MORE
ISOLATIONIST AND PROTECTIONIST POLICIES.
HOW DO YOU PREPARE FOR THAT? HOW DOES SPAIN AND EUROPE
REPAIR FOR IT? >> A PLEASURE BEING HERE, THANK
YOU FOR INVITING ME. I THINK WHAT WE REALLY SEE IN
EUROPE IS WE ARE TAKING CONSCIOUS OF THESE GEOPOLITICAL
CONTEXTS OUTSIDE OF THE EU, THE RACE FOR COMPETITIVENESS.
AND WE ARE GETTING READY FOR IT. JOE: GETTING READY FOR IT.
DONALD TRUMP AND JOE BIDEN HAVE SOMETHING IN COMMON, TARIFFS.
THE PRESIDENT PROMISES A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE ON TARIFFS
AGAINST CHINA. SHOULD HE BE REELECTED?
I PRESUME THAT IS SOMETHING WE CAN SEE.
DONALD TRUMP TALKING ABOUT ACROSS THE BOARD TARIFFS.
WHAT WOULD IT MEAN FOR EU AND SPAIN? >> THE EU, WE NEED TO BALANCE
THE BET FOR OPEN TRADE. BUT AT THE SAME TIME, WE NEED
TO KEEP PUSHING FOR THE ECONOMIC SECURITY AGENDA.
IN A SENSE, IT WOULD PUT ON THE TABLE SOMETHING VERY CLEAR FOR
US. TO BE OPEN FOR INVESTMENTS. AT THE SAME TIME, WE NEED TO
PROTECT OUR COMPANIES AND ENSURE THEY ARE TREATED FAIRLY
WITHIN AND OUTSIDE THE EU. LET'S NOT BE NAIVE OR INTENSIVE
DOING THE PROPER SCREENING OF THOSE FOREIGN BACKED
INVESTMENTS TO SPAIN, BUT ALSO THE EU KAILEY:
SOMETHING THE EU HAS AN ACTIVE REVIEW ONGOING. WE ANNOUNCED NEXT WEEK TARIFFS
DECISIONS ON CHINESE MADE ELECTRIC VEHICLES.
THERE ARE CHINESE COMPANIES WITH FACTORIES IN SPAIN TRYING
TO MAKE ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN YOUR COUNTRY.
HOW DO YOU VIEW SPECIFICALLY THE CHINESE EV TARIFFS QUESTION?
>> AS WE SAID BEFORE, THERE ARE BIG COMPETITORS OUTSIDE, WHICH
ARE SOMEHOW PROVIDING US WITH KEY INPUTS INTO THE CHANGE OF
THOSE VERY IMPORTANT INDUSTRIES. WE NEED TO KEEP THIS BALANCE
BETWEEN BEING AN ATTRACTOR OF INVESTMENT, BUT ALSO PROTECTING
STRATEGIC COMPANIES WITHIN KEY INDUSTRIES.
EV INDUSTRIES IS ONE OF THE KEY ELEMENTS GOING FORWARD IN TERMS
OF KEEPING THE ECONOMIES INTO THE RIGHT TRACK. JOE:
OUR MARKETS ARE CELEBRATING THE LATEST READING ON INFLATION,
WHICH HAS BEEN DOGGING THIS PRESIDENT AND OUR ECONOMY SINCE
WE CAME OUT OF COVID. I WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE
TRAJECTORY OF INFLATION IN SPAIN AND THE U.S.
THE PRESIDENT SAYS WE ARE BETTER OFF WHEN IT COMES TO
HIGH PRICES THAN THE REST OF THE WORLD. IS HE RIGHT? >> WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE EU
AND THE EURO AREA, IT IS A LONG-TERM TREND OF MODERATION
IN INFLATION. IN MID-2022, IT WAS A TWO DIGIT
PHASE IN TERMS OF INFLATION. THIS IS GOING DOWN IN WHAT THE
ECB EXPECT, THE 2% FIGURE 42025. WE ARE GETTING THERE GRADUALLY.
IT IS ALLOWING ANALYST TO EXPECT CUTS IN TERMS OF
INTEREST RATES FROM THE ECB IN THE NEXT MEETING. KAILEY:
INTEREST RATE CUTS USUALLY COME BECAUSE INFLATION GOES DOWN OR
SOMEBODY IS GETTING DAMAGED IN THE ECONOMY, THEREFORE YOU NEED
TO EASE POLICY. WILL WE SEE WEAKNESS IN GDP? >> THE SPANISH ECONOMY IS
BEHAVING POORLY, BUT WITH 2024. WE ARE OUTPERFORMING OUR MAIN
PEERS. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE
OUTLOOK FOR THE MAIN INSTITUTIONS.
THE IMF OR THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION.
THEY EXPECT SPAIN TO GROW ABOVE OUR MAIN PEERS, FRANCE,
GERMANY, OR ITALY AROUND 2% IN 24 AND 25.
WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE GROWTH PATTERN, IT IS BALANCED. IT INCLUDES A MODERATION OF
INFLATION, ALSO SOME KEY ELEMENT THAT IS FISCAL
RESPONSIBILITY. THIS PACKAGE ALLOWS US TO KEEP
GROWING IN THE MIDTERM. JOE: THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER
SPAIN WILL HAVE A CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR BY THE 10TH OF JUNE.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN? >> WE WILL HAVE A NEW CENTRAL
BANK GOVERNOR BECAUSE THE CURRENT GOVERNOR'S TERM IS
ENDING ON THE 11TH OF JUNE. SOMEHOW IT IS NOT A HARD
DEADLINE. WE HAVE A VICE GOVERNOR WHO CAN
ACTUALLY TAKE HIS PLACE AND WHAT WE DECIDE ON THE NEW
FIGURE. BUT FOR SURE, THE PERSON WHO
WILL COME AFTER PABLO, WHO HAS BEEN AN EXCELLENT GOVERNOR,
WILL KEEP UP TO THE STANDARDS. >> IS IT A DELICATE MOMENT TO
HAVE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHO IS HELPING THE SPANISH CENTRAL
BANK? YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT IDEA THE
ECB COULD BE CUTTING RATES. WE ARE ABOUT TO ENTER A NEW
CYCLE WITHIN MONETARY POLICY. IS THIS THE MOMENT TO HAVE
UNCERTAINTY? >> IT IS THE NORMAL PROCESS.
WE HAVE TO REPLACE THE CURRENT GOVERNOR.
WE WILL DO IT IN DUE TIME. THE FACT WE FOLLOW THE CURRENT
PROCESS WILL NOT IMPLY ANYTHING IN TERMS OF OUR CLOUD AND THE
IMPACT THE NEW GOVERNOR WILL HAVE. JOE: YOU REFERRED TO THE MAGIC
NUMBER OF 2%. WE HEAR A LOT ABOUT THAT MAGIC
NUMBER AS WELL. IF IT REQUIRES MAGIC, DO WE
NEED A DIFFERENT NUMBER? >> MAGIC MAY BE IN OUR
IMAGINATION. VERY FAR FROM IT DURING THE
PRE-COVID PERIOD, REALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO CATCH UP FROM
BELOW. NOW WE ARE GETTING THERE FROM
ABOVE. I THINK MAYBE THESE SOFT LANDING PROPHECIES WE ARE
SEEING, WHICH IS APPARENTLY BECOMING TRUE, IS LEADING US
TOWARDS THIS MAGIC NUMBER. JOE: THANK YOU FOR COMING TO SEE US
TODAY. SAFE TRAVELS GETTING HOME.
SPAIN'S ECONOMY MR. -- MINISTER WITH US. TURNING TO THE U.S.
ECONOMY. APRIL DATA ON ONE OF THE MAIN
GAUGES FOR INFLATION. THE PREFERRED GAUGE, PCE UP 2%.
WITH US FROM THE WHITE HOUSE NORTH LAWN IS THE CHAIRMAN OF
THE WHITE HOUSE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISORS, JARED
BERNSTEIN. I'LL COME BACK. THIS IS GETTING EXHAUSTING.
EVERY TIME WE TALK HIM A IT IS A DIFFERENT WRINKLE, WHETHER WE
ARE MOVING UP OR MOVING DOWN. THERE HAS BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT
A RE-ACCELERATION. AND THEN A NUMBER LIKE THIS.
ARE WE BACK TO SOFT LANDING TALK? >> FOR MANY OF US, WE DID NOT
LEAVE THE FORECAST FAR. THE CONSENSUS AMONG MANY WAS
THE STALL IN DISINFLATION IN Q1 OF THIS YEAR.
IT LOOKED LIKE IT WAS ANOMALOUS FACTOR, RESIDUAL SEASONALITY.
AND THAT THE PRINT FOR APRIL, WHETHER CPI OR PCE, HAVE BEEN
MORE ON TRACK. THAT IS WELCOME NEWS, BUT JUST
ONE MONTH. WE AND CERTAINLY CENTRAL BANKS,
INCLUDING THE ONE YOU WERE TALKING WITH, NEED MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THAT FORECAST. BUT THE DISINFLATION THAT
HELPED US IN THE SECOND HALF, I THINK THEY ARE STILL IN PLACE.
KAILEY: IT BECOMES A QUESTION OF WHAT
NEEDS TO HAPPEN FOR THE DISINFLATION TO CONTINUE?
THE FACT WE GOT COOLER DATA COUPLED WITH A SLOWDOWN IN
CONSUMER SPENDING. IS THAT A SIGN FOR THE PROGRESS
ON INFLATION WILL HAVE TO MEAN A WEAKER U.S. CONSUMER? >> IT IS A REALLY IMPORTANT
POINT. SO FAR WHAT WE CALL THE SACRIFICE RATIO, EATING HOW
MUCH DEMAND WE'VE HAD TO GIVE UP TO SACRIFICE TO GET THE
DISINFLATION HAS BEEN ABOUT ZERO.
I LOOKED THIS MORNING AT THE REPORT. 4.4 PERCENTAGE POINTS OF
DISINFLATION IN THE PCE. THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED, BELOW 4% FOR OVER TWO YEARS.
IN CONSUMER SPENDING IS UP. SO THAT TELLS YOU MUCH OF THE
PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE ON THE ECONOMY COST SUPPLY-SIDE.
IT LOOKS TO ME LIKE THE DEMAND SIDE IS QUITE INTACT.
WE HAVE A SOLID LABOR MARKET SUPPORTING CONSUMER SPENDING.
I TAKE YOUR POINT REGARDING APRIL.
ONE THING I WILL SAY WHICH HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT UNDERAPPRECIATED,
IF YOU PLOT OUT REAL CONSUMER SPENDING, IT HAS BEEN GROWING
ABOVE TREND FOR A WHILE. IT CAME UP IN YOUR CONVERSATION
ABOUT THE U.S. AS A STRONG GROWTH OUTLIER WITH
THE SPANISH ECONOMIC MINISTER. THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY ABOVE TREND MEANS WE HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE
ROOM. I'M CONFIDENT WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CONTINUE TO PUSH AHEAD. JOE: THE SACRIFICE RATIO.
SOUNDS LIKE A PROUD ROCK BAND. WHERE WILL THE SACRIFICE RATIO
BE WHEN WE HIT 2%? >> IT IS ONE OF THE MOST
IMPORTANT NUMBERS ONE CAN TALK ABOUT.
A LOT OF ECONOMISTS ASSURED US THE ONLY WAY TO GET THIS MUCH
DISINFLATION WE HAVE SEEN WOULD BE THROUGH MUCH HIGHER
UNEMPLOYMENT, MORE DEMAND DESTRUCTION IN THE SPUR OF THE
QUESTION YOU JUST ASKED. THAT HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE THUS
FAR. HIS INSTRUCTIONS TO HIS ECONOMICS TEAM IS WE WILL NOT
GET INFLATION BACK TO WHERE IT NEEDS TO BE ON THE BACKS OF
WORKING PEOPLE. WE NEED TO MAINTAIN A JOB
MARKET THAT IS ATTAINING REAL WAGE GAINS.
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN NOW FOR WELL OVER A YEAR, WAGES BEATING
PRICES. THAT HELPS FEEDBACK INTO CONSUMER SPENDING. IT IS ONE OF THE REASONS THIS
RECOVERY, THIS EXPANSION HAS BEEN CONTINUOUSLY AND RELIABLY
QUITE STRONG. >> YOU TALK ABOUT WAGE DATA, WE
WILL GET MORE OF IT FRIDAY WHEN WE GET THE JOBS REPORT.
THE NONFARM PAYROLLS ESTIMATE IS 190,000.
YOU ARE ON WITH US TALKING ABOUT A LABOR MARKET RETURNING
MORE TOWARDS NORMAL, TOWARDS TREND.
PERHAPS THAT FIGURE WOULD NOT SCARE YOU.
IS THERE A NUMBER THAT WOULD FRIGHTEN YOU THAT SOMETHING IS
STARTING TO BREAK? WHERE DO JOBS NEED TO COME IN
FOR YOU TO FEEL COMFORTABLE? >> THE NUMBER THAT COMES TO
MIND TRYING TO CONTEMPLATE THAT QUESTION IS THE BREAKEVEN RATE,
THE BREAKEVEN NUMBER. THAT IS THE NUMBER OF JOBS YOU
NEED TO KEEP THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FROM RISING GIVEN THE
LABOR FORCE. WE'VE HAD SOME NICE RESULTS IN
THE LABOR FORCE. THIS IS A HISTORICAL STATISTIC
AND I THINK IT IS SOMEWHAT UNDERAPPRECIATED.
WE'VE HAD LIMIT -- WOMEN'S LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION AND
LABOR RATE, IMPORTANT DEMAND-SIDE INDICATORS, AT
THEIR HISTORICALLY LIGHT -- HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE THE DATA
BEGAN TO BE ATTRACTING 1948. AS THE LABOR FORCE HAS
EXPANDED, WE HAVE HIGHER BREAKEVEN NUMBERS. NUMBERS THAT ARE 190, 200,
NORTH OF 200. UNEMPLOYMENT KIND OF HOLDS
STEADY. SUGGESTING THE BREAKEVEN RATE
IS HIGHER THAN FOLKS THOUGHT. I THINK THE KEY POINT, WRAPPING
UP WHAT WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT ESPECIALLY ON THE
INFLATION SIDE, IS IT LOOKS LIKE SUPPLY AND DEMAND ARE MUCH
BETTER ALIGNED IN THE LABOR MARKET.
THAT ALIGNMENT HAS NOT COME THROUGH JOB LOSS.
WE HAVE NOT SEEN UNEMPLOYMENT GO UP. IT HAS COME THROUGH LOWER
VACANCIES. VACANCIES HAVE COME DOWN.
THAT IS A GREAT WAY -- IF YOU HAVE TO ALIGN SUPPLY AND DEMAND
NUMBER THAT IS THE WAY TO DO IT. IT DOES NOT FALL ON THE BACKS
OF WORKING PEOPLE. JOE: WE WILL BE TALKING ABOUT THE
LATEST JOBS REPORT. WILL THAT DATA CONFIRM THE
IDEAS WE ARE TALKING ABOUT? >> FORECASTING THE JOBS REPORT
EVEN A WEEK OUT IS A VERY TOUGH THING TO DO.
THE WAY I WOULD PHRASE IT CONSISTENT WITH OUR
CONVERSATION SO FAR IS WE HAVE AN ECONOMY THAT I THINK HAS
POSITIVE MOMENTUM. WE HAVE SEEN SOME SLOWING,
WHETHER IT IS GDP, THE NUMBER OF JOB GROWTH.
THAT IS SLOWING US DOWN TO RATES I WOULD COME MORE STEADY,
MORE STABLE AS THE ECONOMY NORMALIZES AFTER COMING OUT OF
THE PANDEMIC. 70% CONSUMER SPENDING ECONOMY,
WITH A HEALTHY LABOR MARKET, WHICH OURS HAS BEEN FOR OVER
TWO YEARS, AND YOU HAVE INFLATION COMING DOWN AT A
DECENT CLIP THIS MORNING, DOWN 60%. THAT TRANSLATES INTO REAL
EARNINGS, FEEDS BACK INTO CONSUMER SPENDING.
LET'S TAKE A CLOSE SHAVE WITH OCCAM'S RAZOR AND CALL IT A
HEALTHY PERPETUAL MOTION ECONOMY THAT HAS BEEN RELIABLY
DELIVERING FOR WORKING HOUSEHOLDS FOR A WHILE.
WE HAVE A LOT MORE WORK TO DO ON THE PRICE SIDE.
PRICES ARE STILL TOO HIGH. AND WE HAVE AN AGGRESSIVE
COST-CUTTING AGENDA WE ARE GOING TO PUSH.
THE MACRO ECONOMY HAS BEEN DELIVERING SOLID NUMBERS.
KAILEY: JARED BERNSTEIN JOINING US FROM
THE WHITE HOUSE NORTH LAWN. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR YOUR TIME.
WE APPRECIATE IT. COMING UP, WE WILL EXAMINE
ANOTHER ANNOUNCEMENT FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.
A NEWLY ANNOUNCED 3-PHASE CEASE-FIRE DEAL PROPOSAL
BETWEEN ISRAEL AND HAMAS. EVELYN FARKAS, EXECUTIVE
DIRECTOR OF THE MCCAIN INSTITUTE, WILL BE WITH US.
THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER." >> FOUR MONTHS, PEOPLE ALL OVER
THE WORLD HAVE CALLED FOR A CEASE-FIRE.
NOW IT IS TIME TO RAISE YOUR VOICES AND DEMAND HAMAS COME TO
THE TABLE. ENDING THIS WAR THAT THEY BEGAN.
JOE: PRESIDENT BIDEN EARLIER AT THE
WHITE HOUSE AS YOU SAW EARLIER ON BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO.
I'M JOE MATHIEU ALONGSIDE KAILEY LEINZ.
AS WE ADD THE VOICE OF EVELYN FARKAS TO DIG INTO THIS MORE.
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE MCCAIN INSTITUTE.
FORMER ASSISTANT DEPUTY OF STATE. WELCOME BACK. IN TERMS OF WHAT WE HEARD, I
WANT TO KNOW WHAT YOU THINK OF THE TIMING AND THE FACT IT WAS
JOE BIDEN WHO MADE THE ANNOUNCEMENT AND NOT ISRAEL? >> THE TIMING COMES ON THE HEEL
OF INCREDIBLE INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE ON ISRAEL TO HALT THIS
OFFENSIVE IN ROTH UP. THE PRESSURE COMING FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT WHERE ISRAEL IS NOT A MEMBER,
BUT THERE IS SOME WEIGHT, COMING FROM THAT HIGH COURT. ON TOP OF THAT, THE U.S.
ADMINISTRATION, THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION HAS BEEN PUTTING
PRESSURE ON ISRAEL PUBLICLY TO HALT THE EFFORT IN RAFAH AND
DECLARING A REDLINE THAT WE WOULD NOT PROVIDE ANY
ASSISTANCE TO UKRAINE THAT WOULD BE IN RAFAH PROPER.
I THINK THE PRESIDENT FELT LIKE HE HAD TO DO SOMETHING.
HE MAY HAVE BEEN WORRIED THE ISRAELIS WERE NOT GOING TO TAKE
THE CEASE-FIRE OR PROPOSE THE CEASE-FIRE TO HAMAS.
SO HE WAS TRYING TO GET AHEAD OF THEM.
OR MAYBE THIS IS HELPFUL TO BENJAMIN NETANYAHU TO HAVE THE
U.S. GOVERNMENT COME OUT FIRST AND
PROPOSE IT PUBLICLY. >> IT BECOMES A QUESTION OF
INCENTIVES. A FEW DAYS AGO EARLIER THIS
WEEK, ISRAELI OFFICIALS SAY THEY NEED ANOTHER SEVEN MONTHS. WHAT INCENTIVE DOES ISRAEL MAKE
AND WHAT DOES HAMAS HAVE TO ACCEPT IT? >> THERE IS A GREAT INCENTIVE
AS I MENTIONED ON THE SIDE OF ISRAEL BECAUSE THEY ARE LOSING
THE PUBLIC RELATIONS CAMPAIGN. PUBLIC PRESSURE IS INTENSE,
INCLUDING FROM THE U.S., THEIR NUMBER ONE ALLY GLOBALLY. AND THE REALITY IS THE ISRAELI
GOVERNMENT HAVE INTERNAL PRESSURES.
FAMILIES OF THE HOSTAGES WANT TO HAVE THEIR FAMILY MEMBERS
HOME. FAMILY MEMBERS ARE BEING CALLED
UP. THE LONGER THIS GOES ON. IT HAS BEEN EIGHT MONTHS.
THE MORE RESISTANCE THERE PROBABLY WILL BE ECONOMICALLY
FROM BUSINESS LEADERS, ETC. ESPECIALLY IF ISRAEL DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE MAKING PROGRESS ON -- ACHIEVING THEIR STANDARD
OBJECTIVES, GETTING THE HOSTAGES HOME AND DESTROYING
HAMAS. THE PRESSURE ON HAMAS IS OBVIOUS.
THE ISRAELIS IN GOING INTO RAFAH AND CLOSING THAT
CROSSING, THEY HAVE MADE IT HARDER FOR HAMAS TO SMUGGLE
MATERIALS ACCORDING TO THE ISRAELIS.
THAT WAS AN AREA THEY WERE SMUGGLING MATERIALS INTO HAMAS
FIGHTERS. SO THERE'S INCREASED PHYSICAL
PRESSURE ON THEM. THERE PROBABLY HAVE BEEN
ATTACKS SUCCESSFULLY. BUT I THINK THE OVERALL PROBLEM
FOR MOST OF US WATCHING IS WE ARE NOT SURE HOW MUCH PROGRESS
ISRAEL IS MAKING. WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE STRATEGY
IS, SO WE CANNOT MEASURE PROGRESS THAT THEY TELL US
ABOUT. AND SO IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF
HUMAN SUFFERING AND IT HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR TOO LONG.
THE PRESSURE ON BOTH SIDES HAS MOUNTED. HOPEFULLY IT MEANS THE
CEASE-FIRE AGREEMENT WILL HOLD. JOE:
IT SEEMS JOE BIDEN HAS HAD AN EVOLUTION ONCE AGAIN WHEN IT
COMES TO UKRAINE. I WOULD LOVE YOUR THOUGHTS ON
NEWS FROM THE WHITE HOUSE THAT THE U.S.
WILL ALLOW UKRAINE TO LAUNCH U.S. PROVIDED MUNITIONS AGAINST
MILITARY TARGETS IN RUSSIA. THE IDEA OF TAKING THE FIGHT TO
RUSSIA WAS SEEN AS ESCALATORY. LIMITED IN SCOPE.
IT WILL ONLY BE AROUND KHARKIV, OR WE HAVE SEEN INTENSE
FIGHTING AND SOME TROUBLE FOR UKRAINE.
IS IT THE RIGHT MOVE NOW? SHOULD IT COVER THE ENTIRE
COUNTRY? >> I'M GOING TO SOUND LIKE JOHN
MCCAIN. IT IS THE RIGHT MOVE YEARS AGO.
I'M SAYING IT IS OVERDUE. WE KEEP DRAWING THESE RED LINES.
RUSSIA HAS DRAWN SOME REDLINES AND THEY THREATEN NUCLEAR
MEANS, SOME KIND OF NUCLEAR RETALIATION.
BUT THE REALITY IS THE REDLINES THAT WE HEAR ABOUT, WE DON'T
WANT TO GIVE THIS WEAPON SYSTEM OR THAT WEAPON SYSTEM, DON'T
USE THE WEAPON SYSTEM INSIDE RUSSIAN TERRITORY, ALL OF THESE
LINES HAVE BEEN DRAWN BY US BECAUSE WE ARE SO AFRAID OF
ESCALATION. I'M HAPPY TO SEE THE BIDEN
ADMINISTRATION MADE THIS DECISION.
BUT IT IS LONG OVERDUE. PEOPLE HAVE BEEN LOSING THEIR
LIVES. UKRAINE IS IN DANGER OF LOSING
THAT CITY IF THEY ARE NOT ABLE TO TAKE ACTION VERY SOON.
KAILEY: BUT THAT FEAR OF ESCALATION YOU
SPEAK OF, IS IT NOT WARRANTED? DOES THE RISK OF THE --
ESCALATION MOVE HIGHER? >> I DON'T THINK IT MOVES
HIGHER AS A RESULT OF THIS DECISION.
YOU ARE RIGHT THAT THIS IS SOME DANGER OF ESCALATION.
THE REWARD OF TAKING ON THE RISK HAS TO BE BALANCED AGAINST
THE POTENTIAL EDUCATION. BUT WE ALL UNDERSTOOD THOSE OF
US WHO HAVE WATCHED VLADIMIR PUTIN, THAT HE WAS NOT GOING TO
USE A NUCLEAR WEAPON BECAUSE THE WEAPONS PROVIDED TO UKRAINE
WOULD BE ALLOWED TO TARGET MILITARY ASSETS INSIDE OF
RUSSIA PROPER. THE UKRAINIANS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN HITTING REFINERIES AND OTHER TARGETS USING THEIR OWN
MUNITIONS. THAT DOESN'T NOT BECAUSE THE
RUSSIANS TO LOSE THEIR MINDS AND USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
THE NUCLEAR THRESHOLD IS STILL PRETTY HIGH IN MOSCOW.
YOU CAN NEVER RULE ANYTHING OUT. I DON'T THINK VLADIMIR PUTIN IS
SUICIDAL. KAILEY: EVELYN FARKAS OF THE MCCAIN
INSTITUTE. GREAT TO GET YOUR INSIGHTS.
I THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. COMING UP, TURNING BACK TO
FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP RAISING OVER $34 MILLION, NOT EVEN 24
HOURS AFTER MANHATTAN JURY DELIVERED A GUILTY VERDICT ON
34 COUNTS AND HIS HUSH MONEY TRIAL. WE WILL BE JOINED BY OUR
CLOSERS, RICK AND JEANNE. >> MR. PRESIDENT, CAN YOU TELL
US -- DONALD TRUMP REFERS TO HIMSELF AS A POLITICAL PRISONER
WHAT IS YOUR RESPONSE? DO YOU THINK THE CONDITION WILL
HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE CAMPAIGN? WE WOULD LOVE TO HEAR YOUR
THOUGHTS. KAILEY: THAT WAS PRESIDENT BIDEN
EARLIER TODAY NOT VERBALLY RESPONDING TO QUESTIONS AROUND
DONALD TRUMP'S CONVICTION, BUT DELIVERING A SMILE THAT THE
TRUMP CAMPAIGN HAS ALREADY TURNED INTO AN ADVERTISEMENT.
WELCOME BACK TO "BALANCE OF POWER"
ON BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO. JOINING US IS OUR POLITICAL
PANEL, RICK DAVIS AND JEANNE SHEEHAN ZAINO. AND SENIOR DEMOCRACY FELLOW
WITH THE STUDY OF THE PRESIDENCY AND CONGRESS.
OF COURSE, IT IS NOT JUST ANY FRIDAY.
THIS IS THE DAY AFTER THE FORMER PRESIDENT AND
PRESUMPTIVE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE BECAME A CONVICTED FELON.
JOE BIDEN MADE THE DECISION TO ADDRESS IT WITH REMARKS YOU AND
RICK TOLD US EARLIER IN THE DAY WHEN IT WAS HAPPENING IN
REAL-TIME WERE MEASURED AND APPROPRIATE.
DID THE SMILE RUIN IT ALL? >> I DON'T THINK SO.
I THOUGHT THE PRESIDENT'S REMARKS WERE CLEAR.
I THOUGHT THEY WERE MEASURED. I THINK IT IS SOMETHING THEY
SHOULD KEEP SAYING, THE FACT THAT THIS IS A JURY OF HIS
PEERS, 12 PEOPLE. WE NEED TO RESPECT THE JURY AND
REMEMBER THAT IN THE U.S., NOBODY IS ABOVE THE LAW.
I'M LOOKING AT HOW THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN AND ALL OF HIS
ACOLYTES ARE RESPONDING. THEY ARE MONITORING EVERY
RESPONSE THAT COMES OUT. WHEN LARRY HOGAN SAYS WE SHOULD
RESPECT THE RULE OF LAW IN THE PROCESS, TRUMP CAMPAIGN MANAGER
SAYS THAT IS THE END OF YOUR CAMPAIGN. THE COLLEGE REPUBLICANS CAME
OUT AND SAID SOMETHING VERY BENIGN ABOUT RESPECT THE JURY
AFTER THEY SAID THE VERDICT WAS NOT SOUND.
AND HE ONCE AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT SAID YOU ARE A
BUNCH OF -- SO THIS IS WHAT THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN IS DOING.
ANYONE WHO STEPS OUT OF LINE IS BEING POLICED BY THIS GROUP.
I THINK THAT IS SOMETHING THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN EXPECTS AND THEY
ARE GOING TO KEEP GOING OUT AND SAYING THE SAME THING.
THIS IS THE RULE OF LAW AND WE HAVE TO RESPECT IT. JOE: AREN'T YOU GLAD YOU CAME BACK,
RICK? HOW ARE WE GOING TO HANDLE THIS?
I DON'T KNOW HOW YOU ARE GOING TO FOLLOW THAT.
JOE BIDEN HAS BEEN CRITICIZED FOR ALWAYS TAKING THE LAST
QUESTION, THE DEADLY LAST QUESTION.
WHEN YOU SAY SOMETHING YOU REGRET. TODAY WAS A SMILE.
IT IS ALREADY AN ADVERTISEMENT. WHAT DID YOU MAKE OF THE BODY LANGUAGE
IS IT A PROBLEM GOING FORWARD? >> I THINK THAT IS DARK BRANDON
TALKING TO US. IF HE HAD PUT THE AVIATORS ON
IT WOULD HAVE BEEN AN AD. I DON'T GET IT.
I THINK HIS MEASURED COMMENTS WERE FINE AS PRESIDENT OF THE
U.S. TALKING ABOUT THE FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES.
WHERE IS THE CAMPAIGN? WHERE ARE THE 25 SURROGATES WHO
ARE SUPPOSED TO BE HITTING THESE OUTLETS TALKING ABOUT HOW
THE RULE OF LAW NEEDS TO BE RESPECTED AND THIS GUY HAS BEEN
UNDERMINING THE RULE OF LAW AND TALKING ABOUT THIS REALLY
UNHINGED SPEECH HE GAVE AT TRUMP TOWER TODAY AND HOW HE'S
NOT CAPABLE OF SERVING AS A COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF IF HE CAN'T
EVEN GIVE A RESPONSE TO AN ATTACK -- AN OUTCOME LIKE THIS
WITH A JURY. I DON'T GET IT. WE ARE NOW CEDING TO CHRIS LOS
EVITA THE ENTIRE SPIN ON A FIRST TIME THE PRESIDENT HAS
BEEN CONVICTED OF A FELONY. I DON'T GET IT. KAILEY: YOU COULD SAY IT HAS BEEN, EVEN
THOUGH HE'S RAISING REAL DOLLARS OFF OF THIS.
HE TALKED ABOUT THIS IN THE PRESS CONFERENCE, THE CAMPAIGN
SAYS 34.8 MILLION DOLLARS FROM SMALL DOLLAR DONORS.
THAT IS REAL. >> SPIN ISRAEL IF YOU WIN THE
SPIN GAME. HE'S HAD TROUBLE WITH HIS LOW
DOLLAR FUNDRAISING LATELY. THIS PUT A SHOT IN THE ARM.
LET'S NOT CONFUSE IT WITH WINNING AN ELECTION.
MONEY IS NOT VOTES. SO THE BIG CHANGE HAPPENING
WITHIN THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN IS THEY ARE FOCUSED ON VOTES.
THEY HAVE BEEN FOCUSED ON MONEY THE LAST FEW MONTHS.
THEY WILL COMPETE WITH PLENTY OF CAPITAL AND MAKE PROGRESS OF
LARGE DONORS WHO ARE GIVEN TO THE SUPER PAC'S.
AT THE END OF THE DAY, IT IS ABOUT THE 1% OR 2% WHO MAY TAIL
OFF OF HIS COALITION BECAUSE OF A CONVICTION.
THEY ARE HUSTLING IT AND PAINTING A DIFFERENT PICTURE OF
THE OUTCOME OF THIS CASE. THEY ARE CREATING THEIR OWN
FACTS. AND THERE DOESN'T SEEM TO BE
ANY RESPONSE, EITHER BY THE PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE IN NEW
YORK, THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, OR THE CAMPAIGN TO SAY THIS IS THE
FACTS OF THE CASE. AT THE END OF THE DAY IN OUR
RULE OF LAW, JURORS HAVE THE LAST SAY OF WHAT A FACT IS AND
THEY HAVE CONVICTED HIM ON 34 COUNTS. IT IS AMAZING. JOE:
TALKING ABOUT THE PRESIDENT'S SMILE AND WHAT HE SAID AT THE
TRIAL, NOT SO MUCH THE WHOLE PURPOSE OF THE PRESIDENT'S
SPEECH TO ANNOUNCE A POTENTIAL CEASE-FIRE, A PROPOSAL FROM
ISRAEL THAT WE ARE HEARING ABOUT.
AFB REPORTING HAMAS SAYS IT CONSIDERS POSITIVELY THIS
ROADMAP TOWARDS A FULL CEASE-FIRE.
WE HAVE TALKED A LOT ABOUT OUTRAGE AND DISAPPOINTMENT BY
PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS WHO MADE JOE BIDEN'S ROAD TO THE WHITE
HOUSE EVEN BUMPIER. WOULD THIS CEASE-FIRE CHANGE
THAT? >> I THINK IT WOULD IN THE END.
IF THEY ARE ABLE TO ACHIEVE THIS, THE MOST IMPORTANT THING
IS WE GET THE HOSTAGES OUT. OF COURSE WE ARE ABLE TO BRING
RELIEF TO THE PEOPLE ON THE GAZA STRIP.
THOSE ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT THINGS.
POLITICALLY IT WOULD BE GOOD FOR JOE BIDEN.
IT WOULD PUT SOME OF THIS TO REST. AS WE THINK ABOUT THIS,
WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE NUMBERS IN THE POLLS WHICH SHOW IF WE
DON'T ACHIEVE A CEASE-FIRE, THIS WOULD INDEED MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR JOE BIDEN. BUT WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE
NUMBERS YET THAT THE DEMOCRATS ON THE PROGRESSIVE WING WILL GO
SOMEWHERE ELSE OR STAY HOME. BUT IT IS A POSITIVE THING.
I JUST WANT TO ADD I DON'T SEE THE PROBLEM WITH THE SMILE.
I THINK DEMOCRATS SHOULD TROLL THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN RIGHT BACK.
THAT IS JUST ME. KAILEY:
WE WILL SEE HOW MUCH PRESIDENT BIDEN IS SMILING WHEN HIS SON
BEGINS HIS TRIAL ON FEDERAL GUN CHARGES.
HUNTER BIDEN WILL BE IN COURT IN DELAWARE.
FOR ALL THE ATTENTION WE GAVE THE TRIAL OF DONALD TRUMP, HOW
MUCH NEGATIVE ATTENTION COULD THAT TRIAL GIVE THE INCUMBENT
PRESIDENT? >> I THINK IT IS A DISTRACTION
FOR THE PRESIDENT AND HIS CAMPAIGN.
NOBODY WANTS TO HAVE THEIR SON PROSECUTED.
BUT THAT IS SADISTICALLY DIFFERENT AND MUCH LOWER
THRESHOLD PROBLEM THAN WHAT WE JUST WITNESSED THE LAST SIX
WEEKS TAKING PLACE IN NEW YORK IN A COURTROOM.
I THINK IT IS LIKELY A MANAGEABLE ISSUE.
I'M NOT SURE THE REPUBLICANS IN THE DONALD TRUMP CAMPAIGN
REALLY WANT TO SPEND THAT MUCH INVESTMENT ON HUNTER BIDEN. IT HAS BEEN PROSECUTED SO FAR
IN CONGRESS, REPUBLICANS HAVE LAUNCHED INVESTIGATIONS. NOTHING HAS REALLY STUCK OR
GAINED ANY POLITICAL TRACTION. I'M SURE THE FOLKS AT
MAR-A-LAGO ARE LOOKING AT THIS GOING IT IS DEFINITELY
SOMETHING WE WANT TO TALK ABOUT WHAT I DON'T THINK IT WILL MAKE
A MATERIAL DIFFERENCE IN THE OUTCOME OF THE ELECTION. JOE:
WE WILL SEE WHAT JIM JORDAN AND JIM COMBER HAVE TO SAY.
IT WILL BE INTERESTING AROUND HERE.
RICK DAVIS WILL BE WITH US. SO WILL JEANNE SHEEHAN ZAINO.
OUR SIGNATURE POLITICAL PANEL AND OUR CLOSERS ON THIS FRIDAY.
WAIT TO HAVE YOU BOTH. I HOPE YOU HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND.
CHECK OUT THE WASHINGTON EDITION NEWSLETTER OVER YOUR
WEEKEND. GOOD READING ON THE TERMINAL AT
ONLINE. KAILEY: AND ENJOY THE WEEKEND.
EVEN THOUGH A SHORT WEEK, WE HAVE HAD A DOOZY.
THANK YOU FOR TAKING PART IN IT. THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER."
