Bayesian Statistics with Hannah Fry

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Channel: Stand-up Maths

Views: 241,665

Rating: 4.973526 out of 5

Keywords: maths, math, mathematics, comedy, stand-up, hannah fry, matt parker, bayes, thomas, bayesian, statistics, house, experiment, probability, balls, tables, throw, hello world, humble pi, book, Richard Price, laplace, theorem, equation, distribution

Id: 7GgLSnQ48os

Length: 13min 48sec (828 seconds)

Published: Fri Mar 29 2019

Reddit Comments

[u/NewbornMuse]

That makes me want to work through the ball throwing example analytically or at least computationally. If we say that all balls land uniformly on the square, and we know deltaX and deltaY of each throw, what does the posterior look like? Obviously the support becomes a smaller rectangle, but there should be posterior information even beyond that.

Edit: The two dimensions don't interact in any meaningful way, so I might as well work with the 1D case first.

Edit2: After some massaging of equations, the posterior is always uniform over an adequately "clipped" sub-interval. If b is the position of the first ball, and x_i is the measured offset of the i-th ball from the first, then the posterior P(b | x) is (proportional to) a product over the P(x_i | b) * P(b). The P(b) is uniform and therefore uninteresting, and the P(x_i | b) are characteristic functions of the interval [-b, 1-b], i.e. 1 or 0. If any of them is 0, the result is 0, otherwise it's 1. The result is a function that's sometimes 1 and otherwise 0: Uniform over the clipped support.

[u/Drunken_Economist]

Hannah flexing with the CDG sneakers

[u/simon255]

She is pregnant isn’t she?? Good for her, such a nice person And I love her voice

[u/juniorchemist]

I am genuinely surprised that there isnt more of a focus on bayesian stats for intro classes, at least not where I tutor (community college level) since it seems to be the new hotness for research. Goodness knows I dont inderstand it as well as I should.

[u/[deleted]]

CIA uses this!