An Easy Win for Macron? French Election Update (November 2021) - TLDR News

[Music] this video is brought to you by our book brexit the coloring book relive the still contentious saga through our commentary and illustrations while coloring along if you're into that and if you use code macron free you'll get a free france pin badge added to your order the link is down below as you probably know the french presidential election is coming up in april next year which means that france don't have long to figure out who's going to lead him however it looks like the decision might have already kind of been made with it looking increasingly clear that macron is headed for a second term so let's get straight into it the french presidential election uses a two-person runoff system which means that if no candidate wins an outright majority in the first round of voting the two candidates who receive the most votes in the first round go through to a head-to-head second round according to most recent polling no one is set to get a majority and there are basically four candidates polling well enough to stand a chance of getting through the second round in order of popularity as of october 27th they are macron on 24 marine le pen on 17 eric zamore on 16 and xavier bertaron on 13 let's start with macron for the last year or so macron has been polling pretty steadily at about 24 with a similarly steady net approval rating of about negative 15 this might sound bad after all that means more of the french lecturer disapprove of macron than approve of him but compared to previous french presidents it's actually pretty good and it's been enough to keep him at the front of the pack regardless he's definitely not doing as well as he was in 2017 when he had a positive 20 approval rating and beat le pen in a 66 landslide in the second round head-to-head polling today puts him at 56 percent against le pen which is still a solid 10 point lead but again not as good as 2017 this is partly because bacron has shifted to the right last year he lost his absolute parliamentary majority when a group of left-leaning deputies quit his party and in response he's appointed various center-right politicians to key posts including bruno lemere gerard damina eduard philippe and his successor jean-castix all of whom are defectees from la repubblica while this shift to the right does seem to have worked insofar as macron is still the front-runner it risks failing to turn out the more left-leaning supporters he attracted in 2017 even if they don't like le pen at all anyway you get the point macron is doing well but not 2017 well this leads us onto his rival marine le pen for those who don't know le pen is the leader of the national rally a pretty far right nationalist party today le pen's policies include the end of nationalization by marriage and automatic citizenship for people born on french soil abolishing subsidies for so-called imminent energies including wind and solar and limiting benefits for immigrants nonetheless she's tried to bring her party more into the political mainstream for example she rode back on her calls for france to leave the eurozone but while this might be a clever move if she makes it to the second round she runs the risk of being outflanked by erik zamur our third candidate although he hasn't officially declared his candidacy zamor is currently polling just one percent below le pen zymor is nominally a television pundit but his candidacy is seen as so inevitable that france's media regulator ruled last month that he should be seen as a politician not a journalist and his airtime should therefore be subject to limitations it's worth noting however that zamor might actually be unable to run in france a candidate has to obtain at least 500 sponsorships from senators mps mayors or basically any other elected representatives zamor isn't directly affiliated with any party and as such he might struggle to get the numbers to run anyway if you thought le pen was right wing then you're in for a real shock with zamor because well he's something else sometimes described as french trump zamor blames france's apparent decline on immigration islamification and feminism and was convicted of provoking racial discrimination in 2011 and provoking hatred towards muslims in 2018. he also promotes the great replacement theory that france's indigenous white population are being replaced by non-white immigrants as well as planning to reimpose a napoleonic era ban on foreign names such as muhammad and weirdly he really hates the english in a recent interview he insisted that the english have been france's greatest enemy for about a thousand years and accused them of supporting nazi germany against france because they believed that france had too much influence in europe zamor is a bit of a history revisionist generally he claims that the patain regime actually defended french jews in world war ii and this is an unorthodox view to say the least the betaine regime was infamously viciously anti-semitic and collaborated with the nazis to deport 25 000 french jews to concentration camps but zamor has been able to deflect accusations of anti-semitism by pointing out the fact that he himself is jewish in much the same way that he's been able to deflect accusation of racism by pointing to his own north african heritage as a result of all of this zamor is stealing support from le pen but if he makes it through the second round he's unlikely to beat macron with limited polling on the topic suggesting that macron has a 15 to 20 point lead over him the last candidate on this list is xavier bertiron polling about 13 bertaron is the front runner for the republicans nomination which will be decided on december 4th he's sort of a bog-standard center-right politician an ex-minister under nicholas sarkozy who was recently re-elected as the head of the hultz de france region in northern france his main competition for the parties nomination are valerie pacres who describes herself as two-thirds angela merkel and one-third margaret thatcher and michelle barnier the eu's former chief negotiator all of these candidates have been forced to shift to the right because that's where the republicans voters are according to a study by the foundation jean jures a think tank there's now almost no gap between the republicans voters and national rally voters on security law and order and attitudes to islam this is why barnier previously the face of united europe has made a eurosceptic turn in recent months arguing for example that france should be free from ecj rulings in certain competencies including immigration anyway so those are the four front-runners and you might have noticed that all four of the candidates are on the right of the political spectrum and this is basically for two reasons firstly the french electra has shifted right since 2017 the share of voters describing themselves of being on the right has risen by 5 points to 38 percent while those on the left have dropped by a point to 24 percent and the second reason is just that none of the candidates on the left are having a good campaign jean-luc melenchon leader of the left-wing la france um sumis came forth with 20 the vote in 2017 but is currently polling at just 8 this is partly because he's crossed the line from firebrand to conspiracist in recent years for example in june he predicted that in the last weeks of the presidential campaign we'll have a serious incident or murder orchestrated to manipulate the electorate and insisted the result of the election had already been written in advance melanchon also suggested that macron is a puppet of the deep state he was also given a three-month suspended prison term and a 8 000 euro fine in december 2019 for intimidating officials who were carrying out a search at his office in a probe over funding irregularities similarly anne hidalgo the socialist party candidate is polling a measly five percent given that the socialist francois hollande actually won in 2012 this is quite the collapse hidalgo is the mayor of paris and polls terribly outside of the city even in paris her policies have divided opinion roads have been dug up to make room for bike lanes cars have now been banned from large stretches of the highway next to the river sen and she now wants to completely pedestrianize the city center popular policies with some but certainly not all voters it's the same story with green party candidate janek shadoo who's polling about seven percent again jadoo polls terribly with working class voters in part because green mares have apparently made some elitist gaffes recently the bordeaux mayor said that he disapproved of dead trees i.e christmas trees and the lyon mayor described the tour de france as polluting you get the idea the french left is in disarray and as such all of the front runners and for that matter most of the french electorate are on the right at the moment macron is in a good position to capitalize on this with polling suggesting that he's well ahead of both zamor and le pen in the second round but we're still away away and a lot can happen in six months and macron himself should know this because he came out of nowhere in 2017. anyway what do you think is macron in for an easy ride or are we underestimating le pen and zamor or do you think there's still time for a left-leaning candidate to outflank the front-runners let us know your thoughts in the comments below also like i said at the start you can get a free france with choose pin badge with your copy of brexit the colouring book if you use the code macron free that's right 25 illustrations and coloring opportunities as well as a completely free pin what more could you want the link to the store is down below and by purchasing you're helping us out a lot so thank you also be sure to subscribe the channel and hit the bell icon to be notified every time we release a new video special thanks to our patreon backers who make videos like this one 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Channel: TLDR News EU

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Length: 11min 3sec (663 seconds)

Published: Thu Nov 04 2021