After two years of war, where will things go next? | Russia-Ukraine war

the outbreak of the war both presidents Putin and zalinski vow to end the fight with Victory within a year or two years on there's still no end in sight joining me in the studio is Professor Michael Clark to talk a bit more about this in depth so at the start of this conflict uh what are your thoughts then that was two years ago that we were perhaps stood here talking about what lies ahead two years on yeah Leah I mean I think we we're seeing the return of industrial Warfare to Europe I've been saying that for a little while we didn't think we would see it after 1945 but it's back with us again now which means that it's the war is is won by the side that can gear up its industry to fight long campaigns in what is going to become some sort of War of Attrition and it began two years ago the Russians as as it were created a pendulum swing towards themselves they moved against Kiev they moved westwards from the dbass West to try to take this land bridge uh towards Crimea which they did they took curse on they got stopped at MV they got stopped at maripol for quite a while and they were stopped in Kev and that was critical and then the pendulum began to swing back to Ukraine uh in the Autumn of 2022 there was a a quick um surprise offensive in kiv which was successful threw the Russians out of kiv altogether there was another one west of the Nea River in kerson in kerson oblast and then we thought the pendulum was moving decisively back towards Ukraine there was a big uh offensive Ukrainian offensive that started on the 4th of June it concentrated on OD South trying to cut this land bridge it only got about 30 kilometers because of Russian defenses and then the pendulums begun to swung back to Russia again they've tried all along the front to make inroads and last weekend they succeeded at adiva and that is strategically quite important because it might allow them to take the rest of the dbass and when adika fell last weekend that was a big plus for Russia a big negative for Ukraine and so I think we'll see as the year goes on the Russians will try to consolidate in the combats the ukrainians I'm sure will try to put Crimea under more pressure but I don't think either of them will make any really strategic breakthroughs this year we're looking really at the beginning of next year which is why it comes back to the industrial capacity that both sides can uh employ and also in the the long game of war that we're talking about here funding is so so important and we've seen over the last few months that support perhaps is waning in that area financial support Michael yeah I mean Leah this is a a a rough chart of the degree of support that's gone to Ukraine so far so this is in billions of dollars and the EU has put in about 90 billion the United States has put in about $70 billion and he's looking to put another $60 billion in that's the the aid that is stalled in Congress but of course the red and the blue is important the blue represents financial support so the EU has kept the government running in Ukraine the Americans have kept the military running in Ukraine that's the red that's really important because without the um extra 60 billion the Americans won't deliver can't deliver legally any more ammunition so they haven't had any more uh Supply since December and of course Donald Trump his influence on the Republicans is holding back that Aid package so far uh very effectively it probably won't go through not in the form that President Biden wanted it to okay so what can we expect them moving forward do you think well Leah this is become a a conflict which is about more than Ukraine itself of course it's about the existence of Ukraine it's about independence of Ukraine the Russians say that Ukraine doesn't deserve to exist it should be part of Russia and every now and again they make genocidal statements about the ukrainians and sometimes we think they might be satisfied with the donbass this time but there'll be another time and so on so it's about Ukraine but it's about more than that as well because the Western world has committed itself again and again to supporting Ukraine and it seems to come down to a sort of a competition between these two men a 71y old traditional dictator warmonger as opposed to a 46y old former former comedian who's now the Savior president of an independent Ukraine but it's about much more than that the Western world has said that Ukraine is The Crucible for the ability of the western democracies to push back against this tide of autocracy which seems to be taking over the world and the rest of the world the the global South as we call it is standing back to see what happens and if the Western world is seen to be a paper tiger to is seen not to be able to deliver on its commitments then the rest of the world will take due not of that and will begin to lean towards Putin and xiin ping in China uh and other dictators on the assumption that the world is really now moving in their Direction okay so so interesting Michael thank you as always

Channel: Sky News

Views: 700,813

Keywords: Sky News, Sky, Screen, Wall, Ukraine, Russia, Detail, Professor Michael Clarke, History, Kiev, Vladimir Putin, Zelenskyy, Moscow, Lviv

Id: qn-JFqGgxJs

Length: 4min 43sec (283 seconds)

Published: Sat Feb 24 2024