18 Minutes Ago: Elon Musk Released Disturbing Warning

you scare the out of me when you talk about AI thing that's going to be tricky here is that it's going to be very tempting to use AI as a weapon in fact will be used as a weapon the danger is going to be more humans using it against each other I think most likely I'm very close to to The Cutting Edge in Ai and it scares the hell out of me it's capable of vastly more than almost anyone knows mark my words AI is far more dangerous than nukes so why do we have no regulatory oversight this is insane if Humanity collectivity decides that creating digital super intelligence is The Right Move then we should do so very very carefully there will be fewer and fewer jobs that a robot cannot do better okay what to do about mass unemployment this is going to be a massive social challenge I think ultimately we will have to have some kind of universal basic income the percentage of intelligence that is not human is increasing and eventually we will represent a very small percentage of intelligence the AI is informed strangely by the human limic system it is in l part our IDR Lodge I met with Congress I was at a meeting of old 50 Governors and talked about talked to everyone I could no one seemed to realize where this was going I think they didn't quite understand it or didn't think it was near term or not sure what to do about it and I said like you know an obvious thing to do is to just establish government committee to gain Insight but there's likely to be another Dark Ages which it seems my guess is that probably will be at some point um I'm not I'm not predicting that we're about to enter Dark Ages but that there's some probability that we will particularly if there's a third world war then we want to make sure that there's enough of a of a seed of human civilization somewhere else uh to bring civilization back um and perhaps uh shorten the length of the Dark Ages the AI extension of view a tertiary layer of intelligence um so you've got your Olympic system your cortex and and the tertiary layer which is the digital AI extension of you and that high bandwidth connection is what um achieves a tide symbiosis I I think that's the best outcome I I hope so if anybody's got better ideas i' love to hear it I try to convince people to slow down slow down AI to regulate AI this was futile I tried for years this seems like scen in a movie where the robots are going to take over and you're freaking me out nobody listened nobody listened what is an economy an economy is uh sort of productive entities times their productivity uh capita times out productivity per capita at the point at which there is not a limitation on capita the it's not clear what an economy even means at that point it an economy becomes quy infinite Tesla is arguably the the leader in real world AI hardware and software um and that we're building uh what is arguably the first uh uh the the most radical computer architecture since the the cray one supercomputer before you do make regulations there try to understand what's going on um and then if you have a Insight committee then the once they learn what's going on and get up to speed then they can make maybe some rules or propose some rules and and that would be probably a safer way to go about things I think people don't like normally the way that regulations work was very slow very slow indeed usually there'll be something some new technology it will cause damage or death there will be an outcry there will be an investigation years will pass there will be some sort of insight committee there will be rule making then there will be oversight eventually regulations this all takes many years this is the normal course of things New link is trying to help in that regard by creating a um high bandwidth interface between Ai and your and human brain we're already a sidewalk in the sense that um your phone and your computer are kind of an extension of you it's just low bandwidth um particularly output I mean two thumbs basically we've got a build an interface um like we didn't involv to have a Communications Jack um you know or some so there's got to be essentially vast numbers of of of tiny electrodes uh that are able to read write from your brain of course you know security is pretty important in this situation say the least um I was going to say I'm not coming with I'm keeping my brain air gapped yeah well I think a lot of people will choose to do that um but um it's a bit like y Banks's neur Ace but not but in the case of NE Ace it's sort of that that's there from when you're born or it's sort of it's not a backup sorry it's a back backup yeah kind of a backup they will improve the productivity of Transport by at least a half order of magnitude perhaps an order of magnitude perhaps more Optimus I think has maybe a two order of magnitude uh potential Improvement in uh economic output it's it's not clear it's not clear what the limit actually even is but we but we need to do this in the right way we need to do it carefully and safely and ensure that the come is one that is beneficial to uh civilization and and one that Humanity wants I can't this is extremely important obviously AI serves as a tertiary cognition layer uh where we've got the lyic system um kind of you know primitive brain essentially you've got the cortex so you're you're currently in a symbiotic relationship with your cortex and lyic system are in a symbiotic relationship and generally people like their cortex and they like their lyic system I haven't met anyone who wants to delete their Olympic system or delete their cortex everybody seems to like both and the cortex is mostly in service to the lyic system people may think that that that their that the thinking part of themselves is in charge but it's mostly their Olympic system that's in charge and the cortex is trying to make the Olympic system happy that's what most of that computing power is oriented towards how can I make the Olympic system happy if if we do have a third layer which is the AI extension of yourself that is also symbiotic um and there's enough bandwidth between the cortex and the AI extension of yourself such that the AI doesn't de facto separate then that could be a good outcome that could be quite a positive outcome for the future it will enable anyone who wants to have superhuman cognition and if that's the case then and let's say billions of people do it then the outcome for Humanity will be the sum of of human will the sum of billions of people's desire for the future we're going to be uh making a significant contribution to artificial general intelligence then then we'll for sure invest in in uh safety I'm a big believer in AI safety I think there should be an AI a uh sort of regulatory Authority at at the government level uh just as there is a regulatory Authority for uh anything that affects Public Safety so we have a regulator Authority for aircraft and cars and uh sort of food and drugs and because they affect Public Safety and AI also affects Public Safety so I think um and this is not really something that govern I think understands yet but I think I think there should be a referee that is uh ensuring um or doing trying to ensure uh Public Safety for uh AGI you know right now we we we just want to make uh basic humanoid work well and and our goal is fastest path to a useful uh humanoid robot I think this is this will ground Us in reality literally at some point there's going to be a third world war after World War III who knows what's left after World War II this race between do we become a multiplet species or World War II which one is first and if World War III is first and maybe we never get to another planet one of the reasons for World War II would be if one country has advanced AI technology and other powers want it or they're worried about some country gaining Advanced AI that would give them a strong advantage in war then they may be tempted to attack before the country that is developing the strong AI has that for use in in weapons technology certainly hope that SpaceX and Tesla are not forced to develop any kind of weapons technology obviously we would only do such a thing if it was the last resort I think I can be helpful in conf I try to take the set of actions that are most likely to improve the probability that the future will be good there are certainly some big risks that Humanity faces population collapse is a really big deal that I wish more people would think about the birth rate is far below what's needed to sustain civilization at current at its current level we need to take action on climate sustainability which is being done and we need to secure the future of Consciousness by being a multiplet species we need to address the essentially we it's important to take whatever actions we can think of to address the exist poal risks that affect the the future of of Consciousness most people in the world are operating under the false impression that uh that there are too many people um this is not true Earth could maintain a population many times at the current level and the birth rate has been dropping like crazy unfortunately like we have these like ridiculous population estimates from the UN that need to be updated cuz they just don't make any sense really you can just look at say what was the birth rate last year how many kids were born multiply that by the life expect and say okay that's how many people will be alive in the future and then say is the trend for both rat positive or negative it's negative that's the best case unless something changes with the both R giant meteor or super volcanoes or extreme climate change or World War III anyone of a number of reasons but the probable lifespan of civilizational Consciousness as we know it which we should really view as this very delicate thing like a small candle in a vast darkness that is what appears to be the case we're in this vast darkness of space and there's this little candle of consci ious that's only really come about after 42 billion years I think this is important for maximizing the probable lifespan of humanity with Consciousness the birth rate on Earth is so low that we're facing civilizational collapse unless the birth rate returns to a sustainable level population collapse is uh one of the biggest threats to the future of human civilization and that is what is going on right now take Japan for example I think population is roughly 110 million but last year if you take the number of children born times the life expectancy which is 85 years it's very impressive impressive life expectancy then Japan would have I think around 68 million people roughly half of the current population that does not tell the full story because you would have an upside down demographic permit you already have an upside down demographic permit where you know a lot of old people very few young people and that upside down demographic permit is unstable that's also here why we need Alternatives you have recently presented optimal human Robert uh and you shared Great Expectations what that could do for the world yeah could you explain a little bit your motivation I assume it's not only about the first visit to Mars that could be done by Optimus it is more than that a game changer in AI could you share a little bit your your vision yeah I mean with respect to Ai and Robotics I always approach these things with some trepidation because I certainly do not want to play a hand in uh anything that could potentially be harmful to humanity human humanid robots they're clearly happening I me you look at like Boston Dynamics they the demonstrations are better every year so there will be humanoid robots I mean the rate of advancement of AI is very rapid even if Tesla stopped doing AI that I think we're still on a track to develop artificial general intelligence meaning intelligence smarter than the smartest human I guess when I was kind of growing up I did have this like existential crisis where I was like what's the meaning of life is this old pointless is there any point in existing at all I read the bearish religious text and uh I read a bunch of the philosophers just couldn't really seem to find any any good answers and then I read hitch as Guide to the Galaxy uh which is um really a book on philosophy but it's disguised as a book on humor and and the point doas Adams was making is that the that the purpose of life is to learn more to ultimately know what questions to to to learn what questions to ask about the answer that is the universe like that's the actual point is is to figure out the point at least that was my interpretation and so therefore we should take the set of actions that are likely to expand Consciousness and our understanding of the universe so that we can know what the meaning of life is or why we're here and how the universe came to be whatever is most likely to ensure that the future is good for you know all of humanity it's not like there's no good that comes out of even a terrible situation there's some good that comes out of it but it's overwhelmingly bad it's just it's just really interesting to learn the lessons of History such that we do not uh repeat the the mistakes of the past generally I'm trying to take the actions that most likely lead to a better future for civilization I think that's like frankly the only like logical thing to do cuz like there's there's no point in having like a good future without civilization if if civilization crumbles nobody's going to have a good future so I think we want to take the set of actions that maximize the probability the future is going to be good and then we understand more about the nature of reality in the universe I mean I don't I don't think we should try to have people live for a very long time for a very long time that it would cause artification of society um because the truth is uh most people don't change their mind they just die and so if they don't die they will be will be stuck with old ideas and they won't Society want Advance um I think we already have quite a serious issue with the gerontocracy uh where the the leaders of so many countries are extremely old look I mean in the US it's you know very very ancient uh leadership and it's just impossible to stay in touch with the the people if you're um you know at the you know if you're if you're like many generations older than them um and the founders in the US they put minimum ages for uh political office but they did not put maximum ages cuz they did not expect that people would be living so long but they should have um cuz you really want in order for a democracy to function well the leaders must be reasonably in touch with the bulk of the population and if you're too young or too old it's you can't say that you would be in touch I mean I certainly would like to maintain uh health for a longer period period of time um but I'm not afraid of dying I think it will come as a relief like what are the existential threats that Humanity faces um I we spent a lot of time talking about the birth rate thing um that that might be the biggest single threat to the future of human civilization then there's um you know artificial intelligence gone wrong is a big concern um I think religious extremism is a concern so there's you know obviously uh environmental causes there are this education especially um science and engineering education um Pediatric healthc Care [Music] um you know uh H hunger these days is is more of a political and Logistics problem than it is not having enough food there's a lot of food in fact you know in the US uh and many many countries the the issue is more more obesity than it is hunger uh so um but I always like I'm looking for ways to give away money that are effective my biggest hope is that Humanity creates a self-sustaining City on Mars digital superintelligence will be like an alien but I think this is this is one of the great questions in physics and philosophy uh is uh where are the aliens maybe they're Among Us I don't know there's like Advanced programs that the military has which are classified you know if they had like some really fast missile or something even if somebody else in the military saw that then they would still not tell them what it was because it's classified there's a narrative out there that our first interaction with aliens would be violent do you think that's the case well if so I think we're in trouble because if they were able to get here and we couldn't get there then probably they've got much better technology than we oh we're done yeah we're done they're going to be way more advanced not a little bit more advanced so we be I we just be totally at their Mercy cuz if if they got spaceships that can get from other star systems to here we don't have anything like that basically we hopeless like we would just be like children or something you know maybe we have some Area 51 though no I think SpaceX needs to create some lasers if we is there better we do have space lasers oh really yeah we do have a lot of less space lasers we use them to communicate between the satellites lasers should be fully operational around the end of this year I mean if there are super intelligent aliens out there they're probably already observing us that would seem quite likely and we just are not spot enough to realize it any advanced alien civilization that that was at all interested in populating the Galaxy even without exceeding the speed of light even if you're only moving at say 10 or 20% of the speed of light you could populate the entire galaxy in let's say 10 million years maybe 20 million years Max this is nothing you know in the grand scheme of things well uh I think it was when I my interest in the future of humanity is uh I I guess as a function of reading a lot of uh sci-fi and philosophy as a kid and uh and then um and just sort of thinking about okay what what's what's important uh to do like why why do anything what's the meaning of life um and you know I came to the conclusion that what we really need to do is um make sure that life continues into the future um and particularly conscious life um and and in doing so we'll better we'll be better able to understand the nature of the universe and um and and Achieve greater Enlightenment why I don't really think of these things as all that audacious uh they seem like uh natural things to do um you know it's um it's sort of more of a long-term optimization rather than a short-term one um and uh yeah I just um not that I think you know everyone should be doing these things but someone needs to do them um so so you know so if I see that well somebody's not doing this and maybe I could be helpful uh then then then I try to do something in that regard just going to be out there in deep space for maybe millions of billions of years who knows um and uh yeah maybe discovered by some future alien race thinking what the heck what what were these guys doing did they worship with this car why do they have a little car in the car that'll really confuse them a very interesting one uh you know what is typically called the FI Paradox which is that if universe is really as old as it as science seems to think it is and as and and the where are the aliens um really been around for 13.8 billion years if so where should shouldn't there be aliens all over the place um why do the crazy thing is I've seen no evidence of of alien technology or any alien life whatsoever um and I think I I think I know um you know space acts we do a lot I mean I think I know I don't think there anyone knows more about space you know than than me or at least the space technology um so but I think it's actually a troubling thing if there are no aliens as well which is that that what what that actually could mean then is that uh sort of civilization and Consciousness is like a tiny candle in a vast darkness and and a very vulnerable tiny candle that could easily get blown out um and I think we should therefore take great care with what may very well be this tiny handle in a vast darkness and make sure that it does not go out and that we extend the light of Consciousness beyond Earth um and do everything we can to ensure that uh the light of Consciousness does not go out there are three elements to a sustainable energy future uh one is obviously sustainable energy generation uh which is primarily wind and solar uh there's also a a hydro uh geothermal uh I'm actually Pro nuclear uh uh I think I think nuclear is fine um and um but it's going to be primarily solar and and wind as the uh the the primary generators of energy the second part is you need batteries to store uh the solar and wind energy because the sun doesn't shine all the time the wind doesn't blow all the time so you needs uh a lot of stationary battery packs um and then you need uh electric transport so electric cars electric planes boats and then uh ultimately you it's not really possible to make electric Rockets I mean there's there there's obviously the transition to sustainable energy uh with solar wind batteries and electric vehicles um and and that that is if you look at the percentage growth of that that is a very high percentage growth um although because of the massive in industrial base of um of the current sort of uh um fossil fuel economy on on a more sort of near-term time frame I think artificial intelligence is something we need to be um quite concerned about and really be uh attentive to the safety of of AI we really want to wake up in the morning and and look forward to the future we want to be excited about uh what's going to happen um and um and and life cannot simply be about uh sort of solving one miserable problem after another you know Ai and Robotics will will bring um bring out what might be termed the age of abundance um other people refuse this word um and and and that this is my prediction it'll be an age of abundance um for everyone um that the the that I guess there's uh the dangers would be the artificial general intelligence or digital super intelligence uh decouples from a a collective human will and uh goes in a direction that for some reason we don't like whatever whatever Direction it might go um you know that's what sort of the idea behind neural link is to try to more tightly couple uh Collective human will to uh the to to digital uh super intelligence um and also along the way solve a lot of um brain injuries and spinal injuries and that kind of thing so even if it doesn't succeed in the greater goal it will I think it will succeed in in the uh goal of alleviating uh Brain and Spine damage you know it took me a while to sort of realize this that that in order to solve self-driving you really needed to solve real world AI um and at the point in which you solve real world AI for a car which is really a robot on four wheels uh you can then generalize that to a robot on legs as well the the two hard Parts I think like it's not obviously companies like Boston Dynamics have shown that it's possible to make uh quite compelling sometimes alarming robots right um you know so so there from a sensor and actuator standpoint it's certainly uh been demonstrated by by many that it's possible to make a humanoid robot the thing that the things that are currently missing are uh enough intelligence enough int intelligence for the robot to navigate the real world and do useful things um without being uh explicitly instructed is so so the missing things are basically real world uh intelligence and uh scaling up manufacturing um those are two things that Tesla is very good at and uh so then we we basically just need to design the the uh specialized actuators and sensors that are needed for a humanoid robot people have no idea this is this is going to be bigger than the car on on a more sort of near term time frame I think artificial intelligence is something we need to be um quite concerned about and really be uh attentive to the safety of of AI um you mentioned uh chat GPT earlier um you know I I I played a significant role in the creation of open AI um essentially at the time I was concerned that Google uh was not uh paying enough attention to AI safety and um and so I I I with the number of other people um created open AI although initially it was created as an open source nonprofit and now it is closed source and for profit I I don't have any stake in open AI anymore nor nor am I on the board nor do I control it in any way um but the chat gbt I think has Illustrated to uh people just how advanced AI has become um because the AI has been Advanced for a while it just didn't have a user interface that was um accessible to most people um so what really chat GPT has done is just put an an accessible user interface on AI technology that is um has been present for a few years um and there are much more advanced versions for that that are coming out um so I think we you know I think we we need to really be I think we need to regulate AIC Frank Frankly um because you think of any um technology which is potentially a risk to uh civil to to people like if it's aircraft or uh you know cars or uh medicine we have regulatory bodies that um oversee the public safety of of cars and planes and Medicine thing that really got me and I think is going to get a lot of other people is that there there are just so many false stores with with self-driving um where you think you think you got the problem have a handle on the problem and then it nope uh turns out uh you just hit a ceiling um and and uh uh because what if you if you were to plot the progress the progress looks like a log curve so it's like a series of log curves it it it goes It goes up sort of you know sort of a fairly straight way and then it starts tailing off and and and and you start kind of getting diminishing returns uh yeah and and you're like uhoh this it was trending up and now it's sort of curving over and not and and you you start getting to these what I call uh local local Maxima uh where uh you don't realize basically how dummy were that's uh and then and then and then it happens again so um and ultimately um these things in in you know in retrospect they seem obvious but uh in order to solve uh full self-driving uh properly you actually just you have to solve real world AI um you you CU you said like what other the road networks designed to to work with they're designed to work with a biological neural net our brains um and with uh Vision our eyes um and so in order to make it work uh with computers you basically need uh to solve real world AI uh and vision cuz cu we we we need uh we need cameras and silicon neural Nets uh in order to have to have self-driving work for a system that was designed for eyes and biological neural Nets it you know when you I guess when you put it that way it's sort of like quite obvious that the only way to solve Force soft driving is to solve real world uh Ai and sophisticated vision and um I think we should probably we should have a a similar sort of regulatory oversight for artificial intelligence because um it is I think actually a bigger risk to society than uh cars or planes or or medicine [Music] um so um and this may SL slow down AI a little bit but I think that that might also be a good thing um The Challenge here is that a government regulatory uh Authority tend to be set up in reaction to something bad that happened we're actually going to have and and already do have a massive shortage of Labor so I I think I think we'll we will have um uh not not people out of work but actually still a shortage labor even in the future uh but the this really will be a world of abundance any goods and services uh will be available to anyone who wants them that it'll be so cheap to have goods and services will be ridiculous I mean I did promise the internet that I'd make cat gos how we could make a robot cat go I mean the internet you know yeah um so yeah I I guess uh it'll be what what whatever people want really you know so you know the the first units that that we tend to make are um for jobs that are dangerous boring repetitive and things that people don't want to do and uh you know I think we'll have like an interesting prototype uh some time this year we we might have something useful next year but I think quite likely within at least 2 years uh and then we'll see rapid growth year-over-year of the usefulness of the humanid robots um and decrease in cost and and scaling up production one of the reasons for World War III would be um if one country has or one place has advanced AI technology and other powers wanted uh or they're worried about some country G gaining uh Advanced AI that would would um give them a strong advantage in war then they may be tempted to attack before the country that is developing the strong AI has that uh for use in in weapons technology certainly hope that um SpaceX and Tesla do not uh are not forced to develop any kind of weapons technology uh obviously we would only do such a thing if it was the last resort I think I can be helpful in uh conflicts [Music] um yeah uh I mean I try to take the set of actions that are most likely to improve the probability that the future will be good um and so obviously sometimes I make mistakes in this regard so it's not like I always get it right but I aspire to get it right um and so whatever you know I think is most likely to uh ensure that the future is good for you know all of humanity that that's those the actions that I will take um it's not like there's no good that comes out of even a terrible situation there's some good that comes out of it but it's overwhelmingly bad it's just it's just really interesting to to uh I read about history uh I mean learn the lessons of History such that we do not uh repeat the the mistakes of the past most people in the world are operating under the false impression that uh that there are too many people um this is not true Earth could maintain a population many times it's the current level um uh and the birth rate has been dropping like crazy um so and unfortunately like we have these like uh ridiculous uh uh population estimates from the UN that need to be updated cuz they just don't make any sense um really you can just look at say what was the birth rate last year how many kids were born multiply that by the um life expectancy and say okay that's how many people will be alive uh you know um in the future and then say is the trend for growth rate positive or negative it's negative so that's the best case unless something changes with a birth rate um I mean you can look at take take Japan for example I think uh I'm just going with memory here but I think the population is roughly 110 million um but last year um if you take the U number of uh children born times the life expectancy which is 85 years it's very impressive life expectancy then Japan would uh have I think around uh 68 million people roughly half of the current population that does not tell the full story because because those that you would have an upside down demographic permit you already have an upside down demographic permit where you know lot of old people very few young people and um um you know so so how is this that upside down demographic permit is unstable let also here why we need Alternatives you have recently presented Optimus human Robert uh and you shared Great Expectations what that could do for the world yeah could you explain a little bit your motivation I assume it's not only about uh the first visit to Mars that could be done by Optimus it is more than that a game changer in AI could you share a little bit your your vision yeah I mean with respect to Ai and Robotics I always approach these things with some trepidation because uh I certainly do not want to be play a hand in uh anything that could potentially be harmful to humanity um now humanoid robots they're clearly happening I you look at like Boston Dynamics they the demonstrations are better every year um so there will be humanoid robots I mean the rate of advancement of AI is very rapid even if Tesla stopped doing AI that I think we're still on a track to develop artificial general intelligence um meaning intelligence smarter than the smartest human I mean I don't I don't think we should try to have people live for very long time for a very long time that it would cause artification of society um because the truth is uh most people don't change their mind they just die and so if they don't die they will be will be stuck with old ideas and they won't Society w't Advance um I think we already already have quite a serious issue with the gerontocracy uh where the the leaders of so many countries are extremely old look I mean in the US it's you know very very ancient uh leadership and it's just impossible to stay in touch with the the people if you're um you know at the you know if you're if you're like many generations older than them um and the founders in the US they put minimum ages for uh political office but they did not put maximum ages CU they did not expect that people will be living so long but they should have um because you really want in order for a democracy to function well the leaders must be reasonably in touch with the bulk of the population and if you're too young or too old it's you can't say that you would be in touch I mean I I certainly would like to maintain uh health for a longer period period of time um but I'm not afraid of dying I think it will come as a relief like what are the existential threats that Humanity faces um I we spent a lot of time talking about the birth rate thing um that that might be the biggest single threat to the future of human civilization then there's um you know artificial intelligence going wrong is a big concern um I think relig just extremism is a concern so there's you know obviously uh environmental causes there are this education especially um science and engineering education um Pediatric Healthcare um you know uh hunger these days is is more of a political and Logistics problem than it is not having enough food there's a lot of food uh in fact you know in the US uh and many many countries the the issue is more obesity than it is hunger uh so [Music] um they always like looking for ways to give away money that are effective my biggest hope is that Humanity creates a self-sustaining City on [Music] Mars

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Keywords: elon musk, elon, musk, spacex, tesla, elon musk china, elon musk warning, elon musk news, elon musk ai, elon musk artificial intelligence, ai, artificial intelligence, elon musk spacex, elon musk tesla, elon musk motivation, elon musk motivational, elon musk interview, elon musk podcast, elon musk end of world, elon musk crying

Id: mdglwjqQPzs

Length: 39min 46sec (2386 seconds)

Published: Wed Dec 27 2023