Mr. Frosh, it's a pleasure to have you with us again So many people in America and around the world, especially in the states have gotten to know you through Videos and clips on the Fox and all the different networks But what I love about the real vision long program is its really getting to know? You having our investors globally getting to know a person like yourself in a deeper more personal format? just bring us back to Your days and many people don't understand the things about your past and what the evolution of your ideas So your former years ears in finance. For example, yeah. All right, my first job first September 1982 working for Drexel Burnham Lambert, which and Drexel had just bought An old firm of london metal exchange brokers in london. That was my first job. So I spent five years working At Drexel I then spent five or six years at Credit Lyonnais Which then was a state-owned? French bank it wasn't for me and there was a parting of the ways With that one and then I spent nine years working for FK that leaves chicago-based Tricia Absolutely, and that was a that was a great place to work it sort of it ended badly Yeah for them, and it was a great place to work. So most of my life Most my business life was involved with battle, you know base metals copper aluminium as we say aluminium as you say, yeah, you know nickel Tim zing LED But also I did a family currency trading as well during those years, so I spent some time As a broker but also some time as a market maker. So so yeah, I mean my life was the City, my life was financial markets. I loved it but politics kind of took over. How did you make that switch? I mean, it's so hard this you you're twenty thousand feet deep in finance. Yeah, you're in your 20s 30s. Yeah and You know first of all What inspired you to make that risk? Because one of things that I look at is the risk of taking that jump to that next field Well, it is a big risk because I mean the truth of it is, you know, the public think that politicians are incredibly well-paid They're not You never even know so actually for me doing it. There was a huge financial hit but it kind of occurred because in about 86 87 We had something developed called the single European market and the idea was that across the whole of Europe There would be exactly the same rules the same regulations the creation of an economic isotopic plane and that somehow this would be good for business and I thought well actually as a trader I Don't want things to be the same. I like differences. I like competition I think that individual government should be able to set their own tax levels their own Employment levels so as a free markets here. I was instinctively Concerned about it. But also now when the phone rang, you know, it could easily be Frankfurt or Paris, but probably it's more likely to be Santiago or Singapore It was a global business. Yeah, so I I from an economic perspective. I thought what are we doing? getting ourselves so closely tied to the European economic model given the fact as a big world out there and then politically I Began to realize in the early nineties that the common market as we called It was actually about the creation of a new state. They wanted to build the United States of Europe They just didn't want to tell anybody about what is the common market to the average viewer me? Well, the common market was the concept basically of a free trade zone. Well, you don't have quota Well, you don't have tariffs and that's how the European project was sold to my parents generation They say you know, what's not to like, you know free trade zone No, just so leniently. Absolutely But it was clear but the nineties he was becoming so much more and for me the the the biggest moment of a lot Was October 1990? quarter past hoppers 5:00 in the pub Opposite the London Metal Exchange, which is what traders tend to to say and somebody came in and said we've just joined the Exchange Rate Mechanism and the exchange rate mechanism was a means of Pegging sterling against the basket of European currencies, but of course the deutsche mark clearly being the heaviest by waiting And we were doing this Because the British government wanted us to join what became the euro And I remember that night saying this is cretinous. We're making a huge mistake It won't work and by 1992, you know We finished up with interest rates being double what they should have been record bankruptcies record house repossessions And I thought you know what? I was right about that And if I was right about that, maybe I'm right about other that it was it was me saying to myself. I don't get this but seeing virtually every national newspaper virtually every employers Federation every trade union Every political party saying it was the right thing to do and there was I screaming that it wasn't And that kind of inspired me I thought well, I forgot about it if I've got that right maybe I should give politics ago and you start the UKIP Yeah, the most lonely and I just picture this empty meadow with you out there and and and now this meadow has become a Field field filled the people. I mean what were your first steps to create the Union? What's at the the United Kingdom independence movement for a party? Yeah party. Well, I mean it was it was I Began to because of the way I was feeling about This European project, you know, I began to write letters Myself to the national newspapers and start getting published and doing things like that and before long I you know I I discovered a group of people who felt very much the same mostly academics. They were mostly people from academia. Not from business I have to say that most of my friends family Business colleagues, I mean they just thought I'd gone nuts You know, I think they sort of thought I'd smoke something funny What was I doing lord shiva's crusade, but I you know when you work in financial markets, you've got to be prepared to Admit you're wrong often several times in one day And I've always been prepared to admit I'm wrong in life and yet somehow Get it right back to the early nineties I just knew this was the right thing to do and I just knew I had to do it I mean, is it a calling? I don't quite know what it is, but I just believed but I wanted to do this and I believed I Kind knew that the gut instinct feelings I had about the European project about the loss of democracy about the loss of sovereignty I Somehow knew that at some point it would reach a wider audience. What I didn't know was quite how long it would take me and If you think of the viewers of real vision and around the world, I'm watching us right now. What's the one thing? That people don't really understand about you Well, I think it's very easy when you're a figure that is against the establishment It's quite easy given the tidal wave of abuse and criticism that you get For people to form an impression that somehow the things that I fought for Were extreme or hard right or you know? all these things that got said and and I guess I Don't let much upset me because you couldn't survive in this business if you see it But I think those that get the impression that somehow Because you want your sovereignty because you believe in sensible immigration controls that somehow this is some sort of extreme neo-fascist tendency That's the one thing that probably just does actually upset me when people form that impression I mean, I was a member of the Conservative Party. That is my biggest sin they're like really committee doesn't at all and I was a big advocate of Thatcher of Reagan do I believe in capitalism I believe in free markets Nothing extreme about it. But this is what happens all through history you Get an establishment consensus forms around a status quo position and anybody that comes and attacks it whether it's in science or business or politics is denigrated it as being mad and bad and What do you say to that middle class? Person in the UK runs a small business that has relationships throughout Europe and that they're hard brexit You know would disrupt that family and family vision in the short haul. What do you say to that person? Well, I mean the first point to make is eat that doesn't have to be the case Okay, you know I've been GATT the gap treaty has been around a very long time, you know article 24 of the cat treaty Means that we could go to The WTO. That's the World Trade Organization. Yep in Geneva So the UK can go to the WTO and the EU would need to as well And we could leave on March 29th at 11 p.m. UK time and under Article 24 of GATT we would have a minimum period of two years During which we could negotiate a new trade agreement During that series a year kind of timeout period or an integration period basically for two years nothing would change yet we would continue on the current trading terms of that two-year period So it doesn't have to be a hard landing brexit. There is actually a very sensible very very easy way out But even if we did leave with a bumpy landing and with tariffs That would be quite tough for lamp producers whiskey producers or Manufactured goods. It'll make them was no difference. No tariffs on manufactured goods right two or three percent It's less than the weekly currency move And so there's a lot of nonsense talked about many things like that, but I would say this to them the word that has disappeared from our political narrative in the UK is competitive We've been so used Over the course of 40 years to harmonizing our regulations Homogenizing our regulations they I mean past your eyes the Arabic Oh it's all become the same and actually breaking free of the European Club gives us a chance to Diverge over time and to be more competitive in terms of regulation in so I mean think of the City of London think of method to the Massive cost as a method to is this new it's kind of like your version of dodd-frank and it's like yes, that's right That's a financial regulation system that comes from the European you comes the European It impacts the banking system in London. It massively impacts the brokers dealers and traders in London. It doesn't actually protect anybody It just makes London. It makes Europe a much more expensive place to do business You know I keep hearing this argument because of what Goldman Sachs a or JP Morgan says That all the city of London is in favor of the European Union, but it's not really, you know The big might like it because they get a chance to write their own rulebook and it might hurt them a little bit But it has their competitors even more but we've seen over the last 10 years at least 18,000 jobs leaving Financial services in London going in insurance going to Bermuda hedge funds leaving going to Geneva Zurich, Singapore actually, you know, we're making London a Difficult place to do business. I've got several friends of mine. Who and that's not necessarily an independence movement created That was much more from mithy That's your point if it's one example of it, but I've got friends who now have set up businesses in in, New York It's much easier now to do business in New York than it is to do it in London the truth of it is that both the French emerge Germans have never understood the Anglo-saxon market system that New York and London, in fact, they actually hate it They hates it and so I think being outside of that common rule book Phenomenal opportunity for London, which is after all a very international City Anyway, so I see I see a great future And anyway, they given the financial services is Britain's biggest business shouldn't we be in control of the rules? Not somebody else. So you're spending more time in the United States. You're on the speaking tour here. You're working with financial institutions You're more I think an advisor now to some US investors because of this movement. How is that working? And how in your relationship with the president? I mean clearly the president being a friend makes a big difference again because everyone wants that I wasn't really like But yeah, I mean look all of business here particularly The finance business is fascinated. What's gonna happen to the euro what's gonna happen to the European project? And one of the reasons they want to hear from me and I you know, I speak a client breakfast or whatever. It may be One of the reason they want to hear from me is like what quite good form on this, you know? I've made some big calls that have turned out to be right. I mean brexit in front was a twin double You know that happened back in 2016 But also people need to understand that what's going on here is there's a giant battle going on here In politics across the entire western world, its globalism versus nationalism and Actually, the European Union is if you like the prototype for the globalists of the New World Order But I'm not being a conspiracy theorist here, but they want to create a new world order And if Hillary had won the presidency, you know She'd already talked on Wall Street about America becoming part of a hemispheric European single market. So people are People very keen to know what do I think is going to happen and I'm happy to tell them. Yeah well our bear traps report clients have mentioned the most impressive thing in the last year's most people thought that your Politics would overrule your financial opinions, but in the last year we've seen you make some profound in December I mean you you really took the may Appeasement process to heart and you thought that this would play out in other words in an extended Way in other words you in other words more bullish for the past. Yeah I've been arguing as you say before Christmas I was talking here against my own political book But I was arguing that the fears the short-term fears that the currency markets and equity markets have of us leaving with no deal of us returning to it and that peaked around December 58 did it did and I was saying very publicly Actually in reality. I think what will happen is the camel get kicked down the road I don't think Parliament's got the heart or the will at this moment in time To deliver the brexit that people voted for so yeah I've been arguing since Christmas that extension is the most likely thing and that actually the short term effect on the markets is Mildly bullish for the both the power and you can't go juice and you've had the Corbin risk for the pound and for the UK Credit rating that seems to have gone. So I think the Corbin risk peaked in June July June last year Coal, boom was running at about 40% and let's bring back. He's the head of the Labour Party in the UK He is the hard left leader the most labor most hostile to bondholders and creditors potentially on the road Absolutely. I mean this is You know the Labour Party has it socialist roots Of course But this is by far the most left-wing leader the Labour Party's ever had And indeed the whole party's been taken over by hard left Activists and I I look sometimes of what's happening to the Democrats In this country, I see slightly the same tendency beginning to occur So people were terrified that a Corbin government and there would mean basically capital flight Hmm like we had back in the nineteen seventies. I think what's happened since June is His position is so extreme he has brought with him a group of people whose Hostility to the existence of Israel actually spills over into just plain outright anti-semitism And that's something middle England doesn't like mmm middle England decent people. They don't wanna be associated with that kind of thing So you've now got a fragmentation of splinter? The nine Labour MPs so far have resigned from the past. Oh, no, it's oh, this is a splinter within the Labour Party Yeah yet nine of them have left and They they've left for three reasons one the tinge of anti-semitism to That it's so extreme now on the left that actually a sort of moderate socialist social democrat doesn't feel comfortable and three Of course because of the European position and the ones that have left are the outright We must have a second referendum. We must operates it from happening. But either way Labour is the Labour vote is split down the middle, you know of the 12 million votes the Corbyn got timber 2017 general election 5 million of those had voted brexit the year before So you've got the Labour Party split on brexit and equally the Conservative Party split as well British politics can't cope with brexit but the point is that splinter Has even though it's any you know, just more than a handful of them He's now in the polls down at 25 26 percent and I think the threat of a Corbin government has diminished Hugely, and that's very good news for investors and good news for business So let's talk about actionable cash for investors watching us over the next two months So February 27th, we have a parliamentary vote and then we have the EU summit You saw because that's in early, March 25 snack in the mouth and then we have the parliamentary elections walk us through what investors watching us right now those catalysts and in the way The those kettles are going to swing market sentiment 27th of February is the next time the government will put they call it a neutral motion before the House of Commons, but basically they bring Parliament up to date with how the negotiations are going with those lovely people like Monsieur Barnea and mr Yonkers so miss meadows around Europe can it gets a flavour of the deal that she can yes together mrs Makings it's back. The prices may goes to Europe and Beggs Before unelected bureaucrats and Brussels in ask for concessions. I just find the whole thing humiliating, but hey So whether on the 27th The anti brexit mp's strike or whether they wait remains to be seen but there was an amendment the Cooper bowls amendment that didn't pass in Parliament last time but what it basically says is that If No, Deal can be agreed Article 50 should be extended the cam should be kicked down the road. What does that mean for the market? Well, it said, it means no change It means that's why I think we're there's a reserve alley and so there will be a little bit of a rally and that happens Although it won't be a big one Because it was one thing businesses and investors do want is some certainty of where we're going with there if you kick the can down The road for a year. Well, what's to stop you kicking it down the road for another year. What's to stop maybe? Momentum for a second referendum. So in that company's CFO's Treasurer's can't make those capital expenditure. Yeah decisions everywhere I go Larry, you know people in business say look whatever the deal is. Just give it to it. Just tell us you Know and then we can start to behave again. So that's it. So that is a problem So 27th of February could be a big day 13th 14th of March will be massive in the UK Parliament because that'll be the last big debate Before she goes off on the 21st of March to Brussels to the summit where you know the 28 Presidents and Plattsburgh, she'll probably get through the final offer From the EU I would think so, but if she does get a final offer them That would any give us 7 days For parliamentary right now How does how is that connected? Don't forget that after Parliament it deals with this the European Parliament has the final say So the final final vote is actually gonna be in Brussels or Strasbourg and I of course will be a part of that so for all these reasons You can see why Extension looks more and more likely the deal the deal that she's negotiated is arguably From a political point of view even worse than EU membership, but at least with EU membership We could trigger article 50 and give an intention to leave With the withdrawal agreement we could be stuck in it in perpetuity So she's not handled this at all. Well, I really want to understand the European elections. Yeah populous evolved a obviously The movement AFD in germany liga 5 star in Italy even Vox now in Spain. Yep. These are all Populist parties that have gone from as you've explained I saw you speak at an event of banking event where you said Liga and salvini were one to three percent of the vote 10 years ago where they explained that well that impact on The 30s now in the 30. Yeah, it's remark. This is Italy Liga, you know, when do you think about Italian government? So what do they have? I think 51 governments in the first 50 years after World War two I mean, you know chaos is the norm in Italian politics and the governments come in and governments go this government this merger that has happened between Five star they were you know on the Left the Lea they're on the right. Their approval ratings are up in the 60s Together. Yep together and it's working And so this would be like an America a Bernie Sanders party and a Trump party together in many ways It would be yeah in many ways when it's just fascinating to him Americans I think but it's working they They're clearly on a collision course Because you know one group wants to spend one group wants to cut taxes the house That's different sustainable funny that well, the coalition forces compromised obviously, but you know They presented a budget their annual budget With a deficit running at about 2.4 percent and all right. I know Some of the future projections were a little bit optimistic For great, but it wasn't by any means an outrageous budget particularly given the French after yeah The expectations were I think four or five percent, right? That's right, and they came in with two point four I thought it was relatively responsible and yet The European Commission, you know and I repeat the point Men and women who we can't vote for men and women here. We can't remove people who have power without accountability rejected The Italian budget and made them cut it and I think these European elections particularly our effectively gonna be a virility test of Italian political passes against that amount of Brussels the EU Parliament and Net net net a larger percentage of populace will be in there look, you know, I mean when I was first elected to the European Parliament in in 1999 I mean I was the only Secessionist in the place. I Was I was one of the 600 the something. Hey, you know I was the only person really there Saying we shouldn't be part of this. It's gonna be very different. I think was gonna be a big move. I would I would guess that We're gonna finish up with I would think 25 percent of the Parliament may be near a 30 will be um, ep's with a pretty robustly skeptical attitude Towards the way the European Union works doesn't mean there'll be outright secessionist, but it means they will be you're a critical in many many ways and kind of what I think we're gonna see happening is I think the discipline that keeps the eurozone together You know and that combination of ECB At times IMF and set a European Commission that discipline that tells countries what they must have must not do That's gonna fragment that's gonna start very soon now, so you had miss Angela Merkel. Yeah incredible leader through obviously 2010-11 through the last eight nine. Yeah, I take a decade almost Yeah, she was the glue of Europe and what you're describing is a more fragmented power base throughout Europe Well, she's going yeah, she's gone. She's going Amazing isn't it, you know glittering political career ruined by one mistake Yep, that one phrase let them come as many they want to come Carmen. It's ruined immigration so it's ruined so a lot of people here in the state's think that if if she had taken if the Europe had handled this Immigration issue over say a decade and didn't try to jam it down. Everyone's throat is that is that your argument is that that's what well, I think that if you if you bring in You know huge numbers of people in a very short space of time Nearly all of whom are young males? Aged between 20 and 30 and who come from countries where women aren't even second-class citizens, you know Don't be surprised that they're a huge huge cultural uproar Going on in German cities and elsewhere say it was a huge huge mistake that she made either way if you think back to 2008 and on it was actually Merkel's leadership in many ways that kept the eurozone functioning and kept the whole thing working her political authority the sheer weight of Germany as an economic power kept the whole show on the road. She's on the way out very unlikely There she's gonna be replaced by anybody with that level of stature that she has this is important. So you think of the relationship between Germany and think of shoval the former finance minister you've had this group of people that were very Hard on austerity, you know really forcing the austerity into the periphery which Italy Spain Portugal Could we see a left shift there where they're actually more Supportive of deficit spending in the South could that somehow be a positive coming out of Germany? Well as disaster major, they might but it won't be enough the Greeks had their little mini rebellion No, they put mr. Tsipras in power They had the rather colorful Finance Minister mr. Varoufakis For a bit but in the end when it came to the standoff Between the Greek government and the European institutions the Greeks blinked and the Greeks have now just given up basically Italy's a very different kettle of fish. I I Think what you're beginning to see with salvini is a series of tests of will that are going on between him and the European institutions And at some points now going after the ECB. Oh absolutely books apps Absent will a proper agreement for that? but Yeah, and I said say what I see I see discipline breaking down within the eurozone. I think it becomes much harder For the ECB the commissioner and Germany to limit What governments borrow and what they spend? So it'd be much harder for the EU to enforce my financial discipline much Hong Soo So you have credit default swaps on at an Italian? Sovereign bond yet. It had gone up dramatically as of the famous Memorial Day weekend. Yeah God bless Brevan Howard. They got it, right? Yeah But now what's interesting is that even as markets have rallied here in the United States? You still have those current default swaps that did that which is actually a bet on default the cost of protection It's still very very elevated among Italy and the banks so You're talking about 1.8 trillion of near term debt maturities in Italy. So these are bonds that are coming do That at the same time they're running the deficits and they're having this confrontation. We're talking about near term debt near term Paper coming due in the next 3-4 years, maybe five. So you're near term debt maturities are extremely high 1.8 trillion How do we get through this? What where does it break? Does it break sometime in the next 18 months? Well in the end, of course That's the one thing that that's the one thing that they have over salvini Is the worry that if they rebelled too much the whole system could go back. You know, that is the one thing that perhaps holds the Italians back from being too rebellious, but ultimately in the end this is about public will and We've seen it the brexit. I mean we were told in that referendum That'll be voted to leave half a million jobs would go immediately growth would collapse House prices would collapse plagues of black locust would descend upon our farmlands and we still very brexit And youuuu you get to a point? where even if you tell the Italian electorate if you start to pursue a path Of basically looking alternatives to the euro, which is what we're talking about. Really? That terrible things will happen to you. Well in the end people haven't gotten a thing have nothing to lose And I think ultimately that's where we're going and financial markets have to deal with these different headlines So you'll have the Finance Minister the EU? Mr Conti the EU kind of a relation preparation relationship person explain how these different headlines come out one comment says, okay they're potentially Open to leave the European Union then a couple days later salvini has to come back and walk that back explain What's really happening behind the scenes? Well, the confusion of course is that you've got this coalition of Labor and The 5-star but there's also a prime minister mr. Conti and I was with him a couple of weeks ago And he is more of a he's probably yes a you have a EU Prime Minister. You have an EU private idealist It's just different but don't doubt don't doubt The changes the trends in public sentiment. I mean even in France Polling last week 40 percent of French want to leave the European Union now, I'm not predicting This whole thing is going to collapse in short order. What I am predicting is we're gonna go through years of huge battles Going on between governments. What did they make their own sovereign decisions and central bankers And euro politicians trying to prevent them from doing it, but the trend is very very clear The trend is very very clear whether it's on budget deficits Whether it's on sharing Germany's migrant quotas with the Hungarians and the polls of many countries like that You know what you're actually saying is public opinion moving in completely the opposite direction to Brussels and here's the interesting thing the growth of Euroskeptic movements or populist movements. I don't like that word because it's used in a pejorative sense But but the growth of all of this has happened during a period of relatively benign economics And that's a very important part. Right? And this is the clue. This really is the populist rise with Mister. Mr. Draghi has fired four point seven trillion dollar absolute of Economic asset that's not going to continue it So that four point seven trillion should have helped contain populism hasn't done. It hasn't done it So that program is coming very much to an end. So walk us through that so we have mr. Draghi Leaving this is mr. Everything It takes from June 2012, which was the big moment when he had fatal Markus reversed the positives ayah And he's like I said, he's a he's accumulated Four point seven trillion of bonds and assets all kinds of even corporate debt. He owned some junk bonds as well Now you may not have a strong view here. But what are you hearing around? You know macron France the influence of the next head of the ECB Germany obviously as a heavy hand Mr. Weidman, I mean, where do you see this going? Because it's all gonna come down in October This is a year of huge change, look we've got the European elections happening at the end of May We've got an entire new European Commission coming in in November so You know yonkers retiring is going off to a a bar in the sky somewhere or wherever he's going to go And also big change at the ECB. So this is a massive year of change within the European institutions and It's gonna be very interesting. You know, if if the ECB decides to be really hardcore in terms of policy And in terms of trying its utmost to maintain discipline Within the eurozone have that you have that 1.8 trillion of Italian bonds in the next three years. Yeah So you need an accommodative ECB? what I'm seeing and it's fascinating is Despite the uprising that we're seeing amongst public opinion new political parties The way Brussels is responding to this is actually to Tran centralize even more quickly so these decisions as to who gets put in as the next Commission president, you know what direction the ECB is going to take I Personally think that they will not be very accommodating. They will try They will try to maintain discipline It's rather like the schoolteacher, you know, if the kids they respect the schoolteacher the mall the schools He 'tried shouts at them the worse they behave that's almost what you've got here So I I think they're gonna try and play very tough. I think they're gonna go for I think Brussels will choose very centralizing people, you know quite Aryan People in economic terms and that will just keep the discontent going We're heading four years of conflict in the eurozone and we're also seeing of course and you know Economically some quite worrying science, you know industrial production figures a good for Germany for France, Italy in recession I Don't see any prospect to be coming out of recession in the short term. So, you know, we're now moving into negative a period of negative Economics and that's why I think the whole populist movement In Italy you have the tax cuts ends the fiscal spending that they won. Does that get put forth? I mean has that that where does that stick is you you had salvini ran on tax cuts and a five-star ran on deficits When does that stimulus come into Italy? Where is that? I didn't lay No, but as I said to you earlier there seem to be a popular government because there seem to be standing up against Brussels in the end Look in the end. This is this European project isn't gonna be that Big difficulty and it's tough enough for Britain to get out on brexit. The difficulty is How the countries leave the eurozone I'm a day somebody puts up a decent plan For how you leave? The eurozone is the day when the whole thing will change we're not they like a two euro system Where you have a southern euro in a northern euro body, that would be more fair to the attendees very much That is very much the way That some of the thinkers inside Liga, you know that's the direction of travel that they're currently it's not that they leave their two euros to a northern euro and a southern that's Currently thinking and I know that within labor they're having this conversation again Exactly how you implement it exactly how you do it. I don't know but I mean Ultimately, I have to say this I I I know a lot of people have lost a lot of money being short of the year, right? Over the last decade and more but I think we have now reached the point where I am now pretty bearish on the euro It's all yourself. Yeah, and I think Germany faces some big long-term problems I think we the massive changes in the car industry in particular Are gonna pose some real problems the German economy and years to come so we have these auto tariffs that are that the u.s Is hanging over you have the head of the a of the specialization, which is a great Trump trick, isn't it? Gee I love tariffs drives the mad I mean you think of what percentage of German GDP comes from the auto Industry is very high And then you have so we have this plan that's come from the Commerce Department's been delivered to the White House. They've kept it very Secret so far it's been leaked out that it will be more targeted tariffs versus a Shotgun, but in other words that may they may try to protect Tesla and electric vehicles because I mean he imagined this Tesla You've got 20,000 German engineers that are going to be producing electric vehicles. You've got 250 300 billion dollars of capital expenditures and investments from both wagon and BMW that's coming into the electric vehicle space, but How does how does how does how do they come up? How do how do they do a deal here with Trump? because you've got macron and and the French agricultural Demands, right? So Trump would never go away so that's how does Germany like who's I think it's Kissin Kissinger once said Years ago. He said the only problem with Europe is I never know who to call. Yeah, right like how does I know Kissinger said that and of course, you know, there were American administrations for years who actually encouraged The creation of a European political project and one of the reasons of course was there were half a million American troops You know during the Cold War helping maintain the peace in Europe at a massive cost to America But all of that all of that sixties and seventies thinking that came from the USA about Europe Ultimately proved to be wrong because how could you have one Foreign Minister for Europe? How can you have one finance minister for Europe when you've got these incredibly disparate? Not just economies but cultures. It doesn't work. It just doesn't well, how does the white house deal with this? Macron in France. That won't give German the agricultural Concessions that they need and then the Germans you have this situation I think he's got the more he wants them. Actually Trump's got them terrified I mean, don't forget You know six months ago when he when he first spoke about the iniquity as he sort of of the car trade Across the Atlantic between the EU and America, you know, and he talked about tariffs I mean within four or five days they bundled mr. Young car onto an aeroplane and sent him to the White House They are terrified of Trump. They're terrified of this threat of tariffs and ultimately I think Yeah agriculture forget there's gonna be no deal and I would call drew any card at all. So They don't give on agriculture then what kid isn't then? How can the EU and Germany offer Trump something that would satisfy Trump's demands? That's it Don't forget these these standoffs could go on for a long time This doesn't have to be resolved tomorrow. But I mean the idea in Germany that that Trump could Impose punitive tariffs on cars as I say, he's actually got the more he wants them in some ways. Well, Japan got the joke I mean if you look at Japan went through this year Do you know the percentage of Japan Japanese cars that are made the United States? It's close to 70% of the car itself in the high 60s most it's like 18 to 22 percent So so Japan got the memo 90s. Yeah, and now Germany and Bose wagon and BMW have to are getting the memo but the cheapness of these European auto companies BMW is trading at the largest spread discount to General Motors that we've ever seen the decade So it feels like to us the bear traps report that a lot of this but is priced in and if Trump delivers Something I'll just as if softens up a touch you could have a substantial Mean reversion in what he will do cause it's something I mean that isn't that isn't isn't isn't that the way that Trump plays? Ask for that but settle for that and yeah And there may be a deal coming but at the moment I don't think you're gonna see a settlement of this quickly And I think again we need to make this point very strongly that Everything changes in the European Union this year the Parliament changes the Commission changes the ECB changes Over the course of this summer. There are going to be no deals done with the European Union There's gonna be no one there and 5g. I mean, you know So Europe, it's got this 5g weapon. I mean, this is a major weapon because as 5g that you know, The major telecom infrastructure of the world China wants to have their companies have more control over 5g Your your Trump needs the Europeans on board with the US Platform and the US and and the Europeans have now held back in recent days saying that there won't stop Hawaii engines China I know I know I know while in many of these areas you almost think that some of this European decision making is just despite Trump I mean Iran being a classic Yeah A classic case of where you almost think every pronouncement Trump makes on Iran the EU say something different as I say Don't expect much transactional business to take place this year between the European Union and an America or anybody else. This is a Month after month after month of elections. That's what Europe is going through this year and we'll know by November Well, nobody will know by November what the shape of those institutions is going to be I suspect as I say that at the center They will carrot that they will carry on with their centralizing but you may see a European Parliament that has such a big minority of Euroskeptics that effectively they can block a lot of new legislation Going through so we could finish up at the end of this year with an e you even more stalemated than it is now Let's get into your vision from middle-class Britain and Britain itself for the next like how does How do how does your views and your concept actually help the man on the street? And what's your vision for the next five years? Breaks, it will happen. I Don't think it's gonna happen this year But breaks, it will happen. Why? Because the genie is out of the bottle people have made their minds up And what the negotiating process has shown us is the sheer arrogance of these bureaucrats in Brussels I mean people Britain now hate them. They are real hate figures so we so we will be free of this thing at some point of next two or three years what that means is We genuinely become a self-governing nation. We start to make our own laws again, which we haven't done for decades now We could use That opportunity to make things cuz it'll be worse for ourselves or make them considerably better for ourselves but the argument that I'm gonna go on making with brexit is Here is our opportunity to look at a section of our economy that no one talks about anymore the 5.4 million people in Britain Who run their own businesses or act as sole traders who provide over 60 percent of employment? in the private sector and it while crucial to economic growth and everything else within our economy and Governments in days of capitalism used to help these guys By lifting the burden of regulation off their backs or whatever else it may be We're not living in capitalism. We're living in an age of global corporatism We're living in an age where very big companies are very big governments acting concert and no one frankly gives a damn about everybody else My vision for brexit Britain is one will be genuinely economically, let me liberate these people and let them get out there and try and make their own money and and yet I know people Will say well The shades of regulars and the shades of Thatcherism in what you're saying But the answer is it worked and it worked then and I think it would work now and on the world stage I think brexit Britain becomes a very different country on the world stage We've been we've been seriously hemmed in but you know unable to make our own trade deals unable, really to fulfill our role in the world, and and I think logically, and obviously It is the english-speaking peoples of the world which basically means America and the Commonwealth And I think and believe are going to get a whole lot closer. And when do we get there last that? that election What general election? Yeah in the UK at the moment. It's not in the interest of either party to have a general election So all the guff you read in the newspapers about an imminent election, none of it's happening. All right, it just is not Going to happen but if the Tory party if the Tory party don't deliver brexit What you will then see is a fracture on the center-right of politics that will perhaps be even bigger than the fracture We've seen to the center from Corbin's Labour Party So British politics is actually a little bit more fluid than it's been for some time But I do think so an election within two years but not within a year. I would think very unlikely within a year okay, very unlikely within a year, but if we haven't left the EU there might be a European election and If that's the case, I should be back in the front lines doing my stuff. It's a pleasure to have you Thank you very much. Okay
