It seems like the overall trend in the U.S is shifting back towards isolationism It looks like there's some sort of national development plan in place, ultimately aiming to move all production bases to the Sunbelt region [Music] This time, we will be discuss about the new population movements happening in the U.S (Point.1 Why are offices in the U.S. emptying?) From what I've seen with my students in the states, they can choose to work from home for about two days a week, like on Mondays and Fridays Remote work seems to be very much normalized in the U.S As a result, the vacancy rate in offices is gradually increasing So, what to do about it? The problem is with the owners of these office buildings, who usually bought these buildings with loans from banks, planning to pay back the loans and interest with the rent money But as the vacancy rates go up, they start missing their income, fail to pay the interest, and eventually, these companies go under, and the properties revert to the banks Such scenarios are becoming increasingly common When it comes to solving this issue, one potential solution is to convert these office buildings into residential spaces However, the challenge lies in the structural differences between office buildings and residential ones For instance, in Manhattan or any major city, office buildings typically have high ceilings, around 3 meters or more, and can extend over tens of meters in length This design works for offices where interior lighting suffices for illumination But you can't feasibly convert a building that's 20 or 40 meters wide into residential space because beyond a few meters from the windows, the interior would lack natural light and ventilation This makes the conversion especially challenging for larger buildings So these are the current problems that are making headaches A potentially viable scenario might involve converting the outer sections of these buildings into residential areas while developing indoor farms around the elevator cores and other areas that don't receive sunlight Urban farms could provide a unique value, turning these spaces into green areas that offer a different view and atmosphere for the residential areas So that allows them to build facilities with high in those values However, such remodeling would require significant investment, and currently, there isn't readily available funding for such projects Therefore, we're in a sort of transitional phase with no clear solution to this issue South Korea's current vacancy rates are not as severe as those in the United States, which I believe is due to cultural differences In America, there's a strong individualistic culture that supports the idea of working independently from home This is widely accepted within groups and organizations As works are done individually However, in South Korea, there's a tendency, especially among older generations, to value communal labor and relationships due to its agricultural society background This culture emphasizes group activities, such as company dinners, which reflect the importance of interpersonal relationships within a workplace Consequently, those who work from home may face disadvantages in evaluations and promotions, indicating that the society has not fully embraced individualism Recently, a well-known YouTuber analyzed Korean society and suggested that the prevalence of depression is partly due to adopting the disadvantages of both Confucianism and capitalism without fully embracing the benefits of individualism, leading to a high number of unhappy people This analysis seems quite accurate Due to such cultural aspects, work from home practices haven't been as widespread in South Korea as they are in the US or Western countries (Point.2 American companies are making moves) A recent interesting trend is many American IT companies moving from the traditional Silicon Valley to the Sunbelt regions like Arizona and Texas This shift can be analyzed for several reasons, with the primary one being cheaper rental costs For instance, employees in Silicon Valley or around San Francisco might spend nearly half their salary of $100,000 on rent, leaving them with little disposable income However, relocating to a place like Phoenix, Arizona, where real estate is significantly cheaper, can enhance an employee's quality of life immensely Even with a reduced salary of $60,000 to $70,000, employees can afford much larger homes, possibly with swimming pools, at a lower cost Thus, companies are motivated to move due to tax benefits, more land, among other factors Another reason for the shift to the Sunbelt region, including areas like Arizona and Texas, is due to their lower latitude, which results in stronger solar radiation This makes solar power generation highly efficient in these areas Companies like Tesla, for instance, have installed solar panels on their factory roofs to self-sustain their electricity needs With the potential implementation of a carbon tax, meeting the RE100 criteria - which requires companies to produce their products using 100% renewable energy - becomes a significant factor Since San Francisco and similar locations do not receive as much sunlight, generating solar power is more challenging there Therefore, relocating production bases to Arizona or Texas could greatly increase the proportion of solar power generation, offering a substantial advantage Additionally, a third aspect that comes to mind, which I am uncertain of its extent of influence, but based on interviews from elsewhere, is that California traditionally has a strong Democratic support base This region is highly sensitive to issues related to political correctness However, not all IT developers are Democrats Many hold conservative values and support the Republican party, finding life in California burdensome They experience discomfort with the educational content their children receive and find many aspects conflicting with their life values Consequently, individuals stressed by these disparities prefer relocating to Texas, a state with a strong Republican base This preference has led some companies to move from California to Texas, as I've heard (Point.3 The reason why the U.S is changing) American policies are indeed shifting Looking at the big picture, the U.S. has historically leaned towards isolationism They initially resisted joining both World Wars, only entering the Second World War after Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor forced their hand Sending their troops to Europe and Asia Traditionally, Americans, shielded by the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, didn't much concern themselves with the rest of the world's affairs, preferring the comfort of the North American continent However, after ending World War II with their atomic bombs, creating the United Nations, and becoming deeply involved in global issues, the U.S. found itself playing a major role on the world stage, including policing international waters Though it's not my area of expertise, the general trend in the U.S. involves dealing with an ever-increasing national debt and the challenge of covering the interest on that debt The debt is growing to a point where it could soon surpass the defense budget, and by around 2030, the costs could become equal This financial strain might lead the U.S. to reduce its military deployments abroad, as indicated by Trump's repeated demands for allies to contribute more towards defense costs The U.S. military's expenditure per soldier is staggering, and the country is finding it increasingly difficult to bear these costs, potentially leading back to a more isolationist stance and the rise of "America First" policies under Trump's ideology So, when these peopele thought of the entire world as their stage, it was fine to have semiconductor factories in South Korea or Taiwan because the U.S. military was stationed there, ensuring security, and China wasn't considered a threat at the time This setup allowed for the establishment of cost-effective production bases overseas Now, with China's rise as a powerful and potentially threatening nation, and the risk of conflict in East Asia, the U.S. is realizing the vulnerability of relying on semiconductor supplies from abroad This is why there's pressure on companies like TSMC and Samsung Electronics to move operations back to the U.S., with Samsung already making such a move to Texas Ultimately, the plan seems to be to ensure that all semiconductors needed within the U.S. are produced domestically, specifically in the Sun Belt region This strategy appears to be part of a broader initiative to restructure their industry, particularly the IT sector, within a kind of national development plan One thing I envy about the U.S. is its vast land, divided into over 50 states, each with its own tax policies, essentially functioning like different countries For economic development, urbanization is a key principle Urbanization means population movement, which requires housing and various business infrastructures to stimulate the economy In countries with limited land like ours, people move from rural areas to cities like Seoul, resulting in over 90% urbanization This process involved building apartments, subway systems, and thus, activating industries Once urbanization reached a certain level, the movement stagnated However, in the U.S., after building cities in the east and constructing railroads to the west, population movement spurred urban development and economic activation there Once the west was developed, the focus shifted southward As the population shifts southward to the Sunbelt region, industrial revitalization follows This cycle of finding empty lands, urbanizing, and boosting the economy seems feasible due to the vast territories and diverse climates the U.S. possesses, offering a unique advantage (Point.4 Could the West become slumified?) I think that could really happen This scenario suggests that Detroit became the center of the automobile industry because, around the 1900s, Ford's mass production required a large workforce At that time, racial discrimination was rampant in the U.S., particularly in the South, where most African Americans resided Moving north meant less discrimination for them, and the North needed cheap labor, leading Southern African Americans to Detroit to work in car manufacturing plants, making cities like Chicago and Detroit vibrant hubs However, as the auto industry shifted to Asian and European nations, Detroit experienced decline, becoming nearly a ghost town Just like San Francisco and other such areas have been highly activated and prosperous, there's a high possibility they could become slumified if industries continue to relocate However, slumification can also present new opportunities Just as SoHo became slumified and was then revitalized by artists creating a vibrant city culture anew Similarly, after property values in San Francisco plummet, young people could move in and create a new culture and industry there, cycling through another phase of rejuvenation In this process, I believe weather plays a critical role Detroit, for instance, suffers from harsh winters, making it less appealing for such rejuvenation efforts, which seem to struggle currently Well, they are giving lots of efforts for purification, but it seems not working out well San Francisco and California might avoid total slumification due to their favorable weather, offering a chance for the cycle to not dip as low as Detroit's Yes, today, we discussed the ongoing population movements in the U.S. I look forward for our next session Source : Gettyimages korea
