Hello, everyone. Welcome back to CTS Program. Today, we are delighted to have the popular internet celebrity, Wen Zhao, on our show. He has traveled all the way from Canada to our studio in Taipei to record this episode. He's here to discuss with us. The political scenario in China over the past year, 2023. Hello, Mr. Wen Zhao. Hello, Mr. Wang Hao. Hello, Mr. Shi Ban. Hello, Mr. Shi Ban. Hello, everyone. There are many unexpected aspects in China's political situation in 2023 This news is ongoing What's special about this is that everyone thought after the 20th National Congress Xi Jinping has already concentrated a lot of power The people he uses are all from Xi's camp They are all the loyalists he handpicked The Jiang faction has been defeated The Tuan faction has been defeated as well All sorts of anti-corruption campaigns Have been going on for a decade now Political purge has already been completed As a result, Xi Jinping keeps purging in 2023 And the ones being purged are the political confidants around him People that he personally promoted Why would he do this? Yes, these are manifestations of Xi Jinping's pathological behavior He is also a product of a pathological system In my opinion He also carries a certain inevitability In this autocratic system of the Chinese Communist Party It's determined by his superiors' and subordinates' interaction and feedback mechanism In such a bureaucratic system He can only be held accountable by those above him. Therefore, subordinates cannot hold their superiors accountable. That's why we often hear the term 'passing the buck'. It refers to superiors offloading their responsibilities onto subordinates. But the subordinates aren't stupid. If you make a mistake, it's one thing for me to clean up after you. But it's another to make me take on all the responsibility. Not only do I have to put in the effort, but, in some situations, even risk my life. So, how do subordinates compete with their superiors? Especially under an authoritarian regime. Lower-level officials mainly rely on their control of information and their play against superiors In other words, for upper-level figures to make decisions they rely on accurate information for judgment and the channel for information delivery is controlled by the middle and lower levels of the bureaucracy So, they can feed their superiors with specific information and hide some or they can exaggerate or downplay certain things in a twisted way Therefore, this forces the upper level to maintain a certain cooperative relationship with the lower level They can't reveal all their negative aspects They always push the blame onto the lower-levels They themselves are always high and mighty, playing the brilliant and luminous Peking University So, under this kind of authoritarian regime Of course, the leadership has their considerations So they also worry very much about being misled by the lower-levels So, in terms of the countermeasures of the middle and lower levels against the upper levels How does the higher-levels counteract? Basically, there are two scenarios One is to distribute eyes everywhere Which is to establish a secret service agency It's like special agent rule of Dongchang Aside from the typical feedback channels within the system, he often establishes units that are incredibly powerful, but are relatively low-ranking within the conventional organizational structure. These agencies are commonly under the direct control of high-ranking individuals, making them very convenient to use. At the same time, their executive power in certain matters is immense, which can be used to suppress subordinate bureaucrats. This is one approach. Then there is another method, which is the topic we are going to talk about today. High-ranking individuals won't stop... It's something that is very unexpected He removed a few of his close ministers This action causes everyone to feel a great sense of terror He feels this environment is never safe Even if you become the third or second in command There is always a risk of being suddenly dismissed and lose everything So, under such terror He doesn't know what kind of messages are safe to provide to his superiors Therefore, he must do his best to relay everything that he knows These are all reported to higher up It is establishing this kind of insecurity within fear Then, under those more dominant dictators They often use both approaches They often adopt unconventional methods Like Stalin setting up a secret police agency At the same time, he would constantly knock down some high-level figures Making the lower levels feel insecure Actually, in Chinese history, this is also the so-called downward technique used by Legalists The so-called emperor's technique The emperor is said to dwell in the ninth layer Being able to see him is not easy When you do see him, it's through a curtain You can't see his expressions And the Minister can only guess what I reported There is no feedback from this end You don't know what he's thinking Whether he is happy or not So you just have to suddenly blurt out everything you know It's such a tactic of willingly submitting from below So although what we're talking about here is The CCP's constant obsession with uncovering potential traitors in its midst It's a sign of an insecure leader with a sick personality But it's also in the process of bureaucratic maneuvering A unique interpersonal relationship developed in a pathological environment. Mr. Stone, what is your opinion on this? We just discussed that the logic of Mao Zedong's Cultural Revolution was to constantly expose the 'black road husbands' lying beside him. That was because Mao Zedong lacked a sense of security. Xi Jinping is also a person who lacks security. So he constantly exposes the 'black road husbands' around him as well. But on the other hand, as Wen Zhao mentioned, It's deliberate on his part. Because it's a way of intimidating those around him. It's a type of fear tactic that keeps everyone in a state of tension. Only then can he maintain his own authority. Both of these reasons exist I think they both exist It's the things that are happening under authoritarian regimes in China Nothing new under the sun has ever happened Maybe lots and lots of times, not just in Chinese history Those who are in power actually have a very, very strong sense of insecurity Because his power is too great He can manipulate everything So, there must be a lot of people who want his position And because he is alone Everyone around him is bullied and dominated by him So these people can easily unite Therefore, he needs to constantly disrupt their alliance And create a kind of balance of terror Under situation of a balance of terror But once it balances Balance will be broken sooner or later Let's say, once someone rises to power And any change occurs The balance will be broken Once the balance is broken, there will be instability in the regime So I think Xi Jinping right now, he is one In the process of exploring a new balance of terror, we need to identify some unstable elements, and that's when the situation with Qin Gang and Li Shangfu came about, So I think it's very important why we need to pursue democracy, I believe the happiness of a country hinges on two key aspects, one is to ensure that the rich feel secure, and to provide hope to the impoverished, No country can possibly achieve equality of wealth, There will always be rich and poor individuals, But it's essential that the poor, feel there is a way upward for them. I merely strive for hope In this country, the poor will work hard As for the rich, plenty of money gives me a sense of security I won't be taken away after a knock on the door in the middle of the night My wealth won't be confiscated overnight Having a sense of security makes this country more stable The present democratic countries have basically achieved this because they protect private rights in various aspects But when it comes to autocratic countries the poor there have no hope the rich have no sense of security This makes this country very terrifying. I think China under the rule of Xi Jinping, And China after his re-election in 2022, Has already fallen into a time where the poor can see no hope, And the rich have no sense of security. And it's not just the poor who have no hope, The wealthy also lack a sense of security. All officials live every day in terror, This, for so-called political decision-making process, And the operation of the country, Would actually have a very negative impact. Because on a daily basis, whether as a director Whether it's a minister When I go to work When he left I don't even know if I can come back This is the lack of transparency in communication within the entire system Because everyone has to keep guessing each other's intentions. This is very bad. Within a family If family members have to suspect each other, You know that the atmosphere is definitely not harmonious Especially when he plans something significant, During a major family decision, It often leads to chaos. So now the situation in China is much more serious than this, Yes. One of the big news last year, of course, was the death of Li Keqiang, The cause of Li Keqiang's death, There are many conspiracy theories on the internet, I personally think that people might never know the truth, Perhaps only after the communist party falls, We will have declassified files. Only then can the truth be discovered But like Li Keqiang He's actually stripped of all power But if we see it from Xi Jinping's perspective He is still the biggest hope for the so-called Xi Jinping's opponents within the party As long as Li Keqiang is alive He poses a threat to Xi Jinping. So Xi Jinping He had hundreds and thousands of motives to get rid of Li Keqiang When we are discussing this issue Firstly, I feel the need to apologize to our viewers Because you will hear our discussions later The next one contains many topics It's all sage transmission or royal transmission Because indeed, we did not intentionally choose the rumors But the current news channels are indeed very limited So this is how I treat this kind of news Usually, it's after a certain period of time Wait until some signals become clearer and then from some of the so-called rumors in the holy tradition Choose the more reliable ones, I want to make something clear to everyone first I believe Li Keqiang's death Even if it is not Xi Jinping who personally gives the order and takes the action But his falling out with Li Keqiang There's undoubtedly a complex web of connections Because, essentially speaking, Li Keqiang That is, over the ten plus years of Xi Jinping's rule We mostly understand his method of risk assessment now, In essence, Premier Li Keqiang defers to Xi Jinping. There are significant similarities between Bo Xilai and Xi Jinping. Why is that Because, according to the sacred tradition, Li Keqiang was once before the 17th CCP National Congress be cultivated as one of the hot candidates for the position of General Secretary Claiming that he is Hu Jintao's most loyal successor, It is said to be at the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China During the process of forming the Central Politburo, It was the new Central Committee that conducted the so-called It's called a recommended vote, He has experienced something like the exploration of intra-party democracy at the time Is to let all the newly elected central committee members and alternate central committee members They went to recommend this member of the Central Politburo. So everyone has received a recommendation ticket In the seventeenth Central Politburo Standing Committee that was formed Xi Jinping is ranked sixth and Li Keqiang is ranked seventh So when this result is published Everyone believes that the succession sequence for the next term is now clear Xi Jinping is the next General Secretary Li Keqiang will be the Premier of the next term So the situation then was basically noticeable Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang were once weighed on a balance But in the end, Xi Jinping won. This seemed to be a widely circulated rumor in 2007 and 2008, But looking back after ten years It seems like there's a strong possibility for it So under these circumstances, we know Li Keqiang was once Xi Jinping's most powerful competitor In this context, He and the then-rising star Bo Xilai talked Actually, for Xi Jinping, it poses a threat on the same level. The only difference is that Bo Xilai has no hope of succeeding within the system In fact, Bo Xilai has taken the path of destroying the system His 'Red Mob Purge' was rejected by top officials who rejected Mao Zedong's legacy He brought over the legacy of Mao Zedong For his own popularity among non-establishment sectors of society On the contrary, Li Keqiang falls in line with the dark side of the system The path of recommendation and promotion But from the perspective of competing for the highest authority For Xi Jinping, the effects are identical despite the different approaches So in Xi Jinping's mind There is a certain shared sentiment towards Bo Xilai and Li Keqiang There's such a foundation. So, in the subsequent decade, It should be said that Xi Jinping is even weaker in comparison to Li Keqiang From his perspective He feels that he might be bearing even more Because Bo Xilai was, after all, knocked down after 2012. And for Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, In order not to disrupt the overall power structure I had no choice but to accept that he served as prime minister for ten years. So when Li Keqiang got out of the car, Xi Jinping, of course, feels a great relief as if a heavy burden was finally lifted off This kind of feeling however, within this decade of consensus There indeed exists a deep rift during the initiation The disparity is huge This is what we can see Xi Jinping is through different methods Establishing a variety of central leadership groups in this manner Bypassing the State Council They took away the power that was originally supposed to belong to the State Council So, Li Keqiang definitely has some sort of grievance. He is very disappointing in himself And then in 2020 That year, the pandemic caused a delay in the convening of the Two Sessions. The Two Sessions was held in May At the press conference during the two sessions Li Keqiang has semi-publicized the conflicts with Xi's policy They noted that China has 600 million people with a monthly income below 1000 That was precisely the year Xi Jinping had to make his announcement The year he achieved success in poverty alleviation and wild play You are essentially having Li Keqiang handle this matter. I've torn it all down Certainly, Xi Jinping must be very annoyed with Li Keqiang. It's quite aggravating. So, under such situation Actually, it's a conflict between the two individuals You can spot a trend towards semi-openness When it came to the time of Li Keqiang's resignation It goes 'God acts and man observes' Because Li Keqiang keeps hinting strongly through this method half-publicize the disagreement between them This has resulted in a social sentiment against Xi Go to Li Keqiang for help So, it appeared before the 'Top 20' Everyone knows the rumor about Xi and Li Xia Does Li Keqiang intentionally want to portray himself as The image of an opposition within the system The current situation is still unknown to us Of course, it's not impossible that he could have such thoughts For his own future comeback Are they accumulating some popularity? I wouldn't rule out such a possibility So in Xi Jinping's eyes The main difference between Li Keqiang and Bo Xilai lies in When Bo Xilai was challenging the Central Government He is still a member of the Politburo He resumed the position of City Party Secretary And now, Li Keqiang has already retired completely It means full retirement has already been taken place. Now it gives people the feeling It seems like Li Keqiang should not pose such a strong threat. But through this year, we saw Xi Jinping To meddle with the foreign affairs system Talking about messing with the military, It seems you are in different situations, whether in office or after resigning. For Xi Jinping, these could all be perceived as threats. Their tolerance for risk is very low So despite our discussions about Li Keqiang's cause of death Many regard it as a conspiracy theory, Some people suggest he has been poisoned While swimming, he had a heart attack Then security on the shore spotted, Let's first let it sink in for a few minutes. But now, it seems like he's basically beyond saving. That's why they pulled him up Speculations regarding details such as the implementation of first aid At present, we cannot confirm. But looking at the relationship between the two along the way, And there are clues to their developing contradictions Then I believe Talking about Li Keqiang There is a certain degree of possibility of unnatural death The risk is greater than his normal demise That's what I think too Of course, we don't have any proof First of all What you just mentioned before the 17th National Congress Because I was in Beijing at the time Essentially, that rumor is fact. It's the baptism of controversy Today, Sherman finally cleared my name of spreading rumors. Year 2017 But to put it simply Because we observe the media One is to talk about things Like the one you just mentioned That sort of thing not being dealt with decisively Essentially, from the perspective of us professional media people, This is fake news. Why is it headline news with no details That is to say, if a piece of major news emerges, You don't even know what his true It's a time when you can't distinguish between truth and falsehood If he discloses many details It is impossible Because if the details were leaked out Someone must have noticed which inevitably led to premature pledges, Therefore, these details A lot of it is imagined by the later generations So, how did Li Keqiang die? I'm not entirely sure about this, However, from my observation Li Keqiang Actually, I suppose Li Keqiang's process I think it confirms a saying A scholar-led rebellion won't succeed in three years Li Keqiang actually had great potential at that time Actually, the faction at that time After Hu Jintao, he is the true leader And at that time, his benefits were quite significant But I must say He's what we call a scholar It's very conservative. And you know what, There are many detailed regulations. While Xi Jinping was wary of his every move, He chose to continually give way But if you keep backing down, you will It's feasible for you to entirely surrender it to him If indeed there's a politician mentored by Cheng Fang, He can't help but to make some sarcastic comments So, in other words He often expresses his dissatisfaction I will give it all to you But I still mocked Do you believe that the entire populace has extricated itself from poverty? I say, there are still 600 million people They're still very poor Isn't this a slap in the face? But what I mean is I also think I'm very smart I'm clever Ha, you can't catch me Then this growing dissatisfaction In fact, it includes people watching from the heavens Including many like Li Keqiang Their remarks were actually satirical towards Xi Jinping How should I put this Although Xi Jinping does not seem very enlightened But there are brilliant people everywhere Coming up immediately I may share a different viewpoint with Mr. Shiban It's slightly different. I think Xi Jinping is very sharp in some respects The talent that he possesses is unique Someone who is good at boxing is considered a master This practical matter management is a mess He might be a genius in some way. Yes So, this political influence His show phrase is very clear, In theory, actually, China has been fluctuating for many years When he was in his twenties Xi Jinping has turned 68 So Xi Jinping changed the rules He admitted it himself At that time, Li Keqiang was not even 68 years old Li Keqiang was 67 years old at the time I clearly can make it. But if Li Keqiang wants to vie for power, He is making a desperate gambit. But it's all about saving face, right? Then I will You want me to step down Then I'll take the opportunity while you're speaking. I have already resigned I retired from the peak-like program. After retiring, He also said, man proposes, God disposes Even aired their grievances And at that time, there were so many overseas There have been rumors about Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang Li Keqiang hasn't done anything It's about explaining, really. I believe that during this time, he should have learned from certain individuals. Hurry up and write a paper in school This is Xi Jinping's article The moves he made At least Xi Jinping can feel reassured with him. He pretends not to know It's fake anyway Anyway, I'm going to retire huh But considering all these, From the perspective of a person in power This poses a huge threat If you let so many rumors spread Then I think based on Xi and Xia At that time, you really need to think it through three times Basically everyone Anyone involved in Chinese politics knows this saying At that time if we say If Li Keqiang was even smarter, That is, as an old hand in politics If he has more cunning he should learn from people like Cai Qi. As for Li Hongzhong Expressing what these two safeguards are Staunchly upholding two core principles In the standing committee meeting of the State Council He has plenty of such opportunities Regarding the 'Qiushi Journal' Every time he submits, it'll definitely be posted Is that correct? He must show these gestures He didn't make these statements Then He then went to Gansu again in August Regarding my trip to Gansu, I don't know That would be when Li Keqiang might want to rebel He has long been rebellious He was just 20 back then During Xi Jinping's first term He got a lot of opportunities Xi Jinping, one by one, forms a group When all his power was taken away He has many opportunities to resist There was resistance at the time At that time, Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang also resisted Zhu Rongji and Jiang Zemin also resisted But to tell you the truth, According to the party's fundamentals Actually, at that time, Xi Jinping was not secure in his position. But Li Keqiang doesn’t resist at all One by one they were taken away So, what I'm saying is, In the end, he Everyone says he has a crime record Because when he was in Gansu province, Accompanied by the Secretary of the Gansu Provincial Party Committee The usual retiree from the Political Standing Committee acts as a deputy secretary, Or maybe accompany the vice growth This is an unwritten rule within the Chinese Communist Party. You are now a retired member of the political bureau The inspection is carried out by the incumbent provincial party secretary This is a major taboo Li Keqiang couldn’t possibly be unaware of it But he does not try to avoid arousing suspicion What is he then? He feels uncomfortable about this Would you like to calculate it? If he really wants to revolt At that time, it was widely spread on the internet Many people question whether Li Keqiang is rebelling. Li Keqiang would have rebelled long ago He's always lacked courage. But can't help himself I think it's this sour character that comes from Peking University The situation that has been brought upon. Xi Jinping's satisfaction towards him is increasingly diminishing. I believe Brother Stone has a clear understanding of the mentality of the Chinese officials, Some things are more profound than we think After all, he has stayed in Beijing for such a long time. Interviewed the high level officials His opinion on this matter is He actually interviewed Qin Gang many times Then let's discuss Qin Gang together Over the whole process We just talked about Li Keqiang In fact, what we saw throughout last year was There's more to Xi Jinping's manipulation of power struggles among his associates There is Wang Yi fighting Qin Gang There are Cai Qidou and Li Qiang There might be conflicts between He Lifeng and Liu He. This process is full of whimsicality. They are all very significant. But it also had a very serious impact on China's political decision-making Just look at these topics that are being discussed more in public Why did Qin Gang fell from power Why is this Tsai Chi so arrogant? Then why have there been recent reports saying Liu He is failing Even though Liu He has already retired Li Keqiang has retired Of course, this wouldn't work either Liu He has retired But I don't know why it has recently been brought up again How do you perceive these struggles? The downfall of Qin Gang is heavily rumoured among outsiders, It's because they promoted him too quickly So, Wang Yi is very dissatisfied at heart. So someone snitched on Qín Gāng behind his back But what was just said There is speculation that Xi Jinping might be orchestrating the factional struggles within his subordinates. This made his power more stable I feel that some are not Because dictators manipulate subordinates for factional struggles. Is to make oneself sit firmly on the Diaoyu Islands Yet in cases like Qín Gāng's, In fact, Qin Gang was rapidly promoted by himself If we knock down Qin Gang again, This gives the impression that the leader is unknowledgeable. It will bring such negative reviews to him. That is detrimental to Xi Jinping So I think about this incident with Qin Gang It's more like an accident Not because Xi Jinping personally wants to bring him down He has no reason Qin Gang has only been promoted for half a year Why did he personally want to bring him down? There must have been some kind of unexpected incident. Now, there's a power struggle within the Chinese Communist Party Displaying a particularly chaotic and illogical situation I think we may need to look from some structural reasons Which is Xi Jinping's own path to power He doesn't have much political achievement He didn't achieve anything during his tenure in Fujian and Zhejiang Naturally, his old team was also eagerly recording everything Didn't achieve much But since Xi Jinping came to power He wanted to cultivate his own followers, He has no one to rely on. He only had his old team from his days in Fujian and Zhejiang Also, there was the time when he was sent down to the countryside as an educated youth. Promote from among those old classmates and roommates which led these people to enter the central government He didn't get to his position through hard work or accomplishments therefore causing the current power struggle within the upper echelons of the Chinese Communist Party. Without it, there is no actual competition in terms of governing plans and capabilities It's turned into a simple court struggle He is simply being gossipy he seems to have lost interest. Therefore, we see these political struggles in Western countries And the power struggle within party factions You will often find him involved in The controversy surrounding the principles of governance and academic background You often hear two different points of view This is neoconservatism That's monetary economics. You heard it sounds very important There is certainly competition in these areas. And now, Xi Jinping's own team from the Communist Party of China has been promoted Xi Jinping himself does not have any profound accomplishments His cultivation in this aspect is not high The people beneath him favored him Probably nobody talked to him about monetary economics or anything like that So, they are basically all mediocrities who are incapable So you can see the interactions between them, Competing for favor towards Xi Jinping It's about Cai Qi driving out the low-end population on a winter night Cleaning up Beijing's skyline They are using various flexing measures to show their loyalty And the competition between them Of course, there would be no ideological disputes We're constantly finding faults with each other Currently, Xi Jinping is very concerned about national security Is very concerned about whether secret information has been leaked, He was looking for clues in this area everywhere Are there any suspects in this area among the competitors? It would cause such a situation So indeed, as Brother Wang Hao just said Such competition has no positive significance for society There hasn't been a deep discussion about the public interest Even in a dictatorial society You ponder a bit, the substantial discussions They haven't brought any progress in democracy to the country There are some benefits at the level of resolving specific issues But now even this is gone It has really evolved into a complete palace intrigue. This Mr. Shibata You have interviewed Qin Gang many times in Beijing There are all sorts of rumors about him, of course Recently, I wonder if you've noticed As an online comment suggested Liu Jianchao, the Minister of the United Front Work Department, might replace Qin Gang After all, Wang Yi is older On the other hand, he also holds multiple posts. He might be too busy for this Words from Liu Jianchao The reception I received while visiting America these past few days, The reception from the US government It is completely beyond the norm of the Minister of the Taiwan Affairs Office. Because the Minister of the United Front Work Department is responsible for party affairs. The United States doesn't have a Communist Party So Liu Jianchao visited the United States Of course, this is an act of diplomacy It's like announcing to the whole world He might be Qin Gang's replacement Why do you think Qin Gang has been overthrown? And now, Liu Jianchao might take his place. I think there's no doubt that Xi Jinping personally brought Qin Gang to power. Qin Gang basically got promoted from Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs From U.S. Ambassador to Secretary of State To the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the State Council. The whole process took over two years In the past, there was a comedy sketch in China called 'Three Consecutive Wins'. Qin Gang truly climbed up from consecutive wins at three levels Under the current power structure in China. Only Xi Jinping could have promoted him this quickly Then when he came up, The final decision to eliminated him was also from Xi Jinping I think this is quite similar to the time of the Cultural Revolution. During the Cultural Revolution, Mao Zedong often also assigned some cadres Like after Tao Zhu suddenly won three levels in a row But the situation arose This new guy who came up, although he has the emperor's grace But he can't get along with the people around him And the people around them have a great The emperor often promotes a new person Actually, it's about changing the route Rerouting his path But talking about these people at the center of power now They are all beneficiaries of the established routes So they will definitely have a struggle if they are successful But often at times This happens when a protest fails This emperor simply gets rid of that person. I feel that essentially Such historical stories are seen in the history of China The number of times this has happened has been countless The new could possibly also be in line with the international I feel that China has recently encountered a significant contradiction All the current members of the Politburo Standing Committee were promoted by Xi Jinping Not all of them are elites in essence. Since the era of Deng Xiaoping, China has been governed by the elites It's all like this Just like Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, they are both elites But to say that everyone was like that during that time When we were in China, it was Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao We often write about governing the country with science and engineering knowledge It refers to a socialist country They need to have a blind faith in this theory So, humanities students are not suitable Arts students are too skeptical. So they don't question what they're told, with their technical backgrounds Hence, technocrats ruling the country are more prevalent An engineer from Tsinghua University But Xi Jinping is a graduate of the Chemistry Department of Tsinghua University He didn't study much He is a peasant, soldier and student Whether he was admitted to that university But I think But we believe that after engineering and science, The democratization of China has turned into arts students ruling the country In the end, no one comes to liberal arts You also got to handle illiteracy. I believe this is a very big issue That is to say, Actually, Xi Jinping, for starters, he basically graduated from elementary school Not long ago someone said He used an online alias called 'Tsinghua Elementary Student'. As a result, they were permanently banned Then he remembered saying Tsing Hua shouldn't have elementary students That's because China is overly sensitive online now Basically, when Xi Jinping was in elementary school He dropped out of school when he was in junior high His father was overthrown Then, regarding his educational background, he doesn't possess much He's just a grade school graduate, Dealing with illiteracy Upon arriving in Shaanxi And suddenly, you’re in a village in Shaanxi They found that everyone around them was illiterate Therefore, he is the most knowledgeable person in the entire village. Having acted as the head of the production team And when he came back, It has led to a group of elites emerging We have to pretend to be illiterate Listening to him command this illiterate Everyone just now, I couldn't help but interrupt when Li Keqiang spoke there were often sour remarks, But Xi Jinping also knows All of you people are clever You guys are lying to me So, if Xi Jinping really wants to use these rural controls he had to deal with the issue of illiteracy that he brought up. It's too common. Like Li Qiang, for example He is a graduate of an agricultural machinery school in the Ningbo region That puts him in the best position to connect with Xi Jinping The highest level of conversation one can have is a 'standard'. When it comes to governing the country But these people They basically This is a sign of extreme inferiority Meaning, because of our group Everyone around us is an elite As long as you go down one level They are standing committee members of the political bureau Further down the line, to the vice-national level, to the ministerial level They are all elites China's so-called good universities Code 915 211. 985 211 Adding up to more than a hundred universities Basically, I think in any country All of them graduated from well-known universities But Xi Jinping, We refer to them as the six dwarfs Apart from Xi Jinping Among these six people, except for Wang Huning What remains above is Fudan's However, he also only started with a master's degree The rest didn't graduate from prestigious schools Most of them are credentials supplemented later These people A bunch of non-elites leading a group of elites. Of course, they are starting to challenge each other They want to resort to terrifying and ruthless tactics. Can't win others by reasoning So extreme measures are used for control So, I think this is a contradiction It's actually a major contradiction in China So, I think this struggle Xi Jinping continues to use these people's words These struggles are inevitable Will it continue non-stop The reason is due to inferiority I haven't provoked him yet, But I always feel that you look down on me You accidentally laugh I just think you're laughing at it This kind of relationship will emerge This is indeed true When would this dictator start purging? Which cleansing is by chance He never stops However, his constant purging is inevitable From Qin Gao to Li Shangfu to the Rocket Forces, you've experienced it all. He goes to all sorts of places During the National People's Congress in March 2023 last year, The appointment of this State Council minister By the end of the year, it was less than a year he changed about seven or eight of them. This situation is unprecedented in history. given your position as a minister The general congress last year was a renewal congress Words from your Minister The person you appoint usually serves a full five years Your position as the Premier of the State Council may change The minister has also changed after serving for five years Where there is a minister appointed for less than a year Completely changed the whole cabinet About twenty percent of the ministers. or a quarter of the ministers have been replaced In this situation Let's not mention this in here Not to mention in China It is rare in other Western democratic countries In terms of Japan For instance, the Kishida Cabinet Then basically twenty ministers in Japan Once we get to about the third one Then there's the political party and the media. Mainly to assign responsibilities Your poems are unclear The Minister who is in trouble? If one cut is good enough If there's a problem with money, Women's issues If it goes to the third one, Basically, the cabinet has resigned, This is how a responsible politician should behave Xi Jinping has accepted this much Change a quarter in less than a year. I think this is Xi Jinping Even though everyone remains silent. But deep down, you must acknowledge this appointment of yours. You are certainly a poet in obscurity This is definitely something that can be said So, you think his methods of purging are Can it truly uphold its authority In actuality, it's probably meant to instill fear Hence, the subordinates dare not hide anything from their superiors, He believes it will increase his authority As long as others fear him He thinks it's about authority But in reality, it did quite some damage to Xi Jinping In fact, it also results in the loss of enforcement power Because no one knows What position you sit in is safe for the long term There will always be reservations Therefore, in reality, it will also lose its execution power. For instance, a minister You serve a term of five years For instance, you have a five-year plan What are the main tasks you probably have to promote But you did it in less than ten months Suddenly stepped down Who the next minister will be I don't know why the previous minister stepped down We don't know if the previous minister made any mistakes. Whether we should continue to implement his plan This policy implementation is ordered to reform by Xi It caused a lot of problems I think there is another possibility Has already entered a mode of mutual harm For example, among us three He is the boss I think I won't mess with you two You two would trick me. I'm going to start digging up dirt on both of you I'm reporting this He's a villain, he's involved in this But when I collected the materials, it was real, genuine If indeed there is a problem with money So the boss has no choice but to act After the big boss takes action With the same conditions, you pulled out someone else's application again. The person before me, I've already dealt with His situation is even more severe. I had no other choice I speculate that the Rocket Force may be due to this situation That is to say, take that material up there I want to follow China's way of doing things We must kill one to warn the others. Arrest the big fish, ignore the little ones The corrupted officials were not all captured "If an entire army was to be detained," Everyone knows that they can't turn their own army around. but every piece of incriminating evidence ended up in Xi Jinping's hands, That is, I think the current Central Commission for Discipline Inspection That is, the Dongchang ruling the country as we just discussed Dongchang is a secret organization He didn't rise through the regular channels I wouldn't know if I didn't hear this news. If I were to strike back in retaliation, I won't be kept out of the loop next time So, if your information is proved to be correct, I still have to take care of it Xi Jinping had no choice but to deal with each one he had promoted, is There's one thing about this that I don't know if you've noticed in the article. this all started a few weeks ago, In fact, only few weeks have passed By the end of 2023 This Central Political Bureau meeting This meeting is really special Xi is quite uncompromising towards political bureau members in this meeting Each one needs to write a self-critique Then every inspection has to be compared I will critique one by one. That went on for two days That is equivalent to everyone having to Criticism and self-criticism And then, Xi Jinping demanded unity of thought from them Political unification and action unification and they need to defend the unified leadership and authority of the Party Central Committee, He is referring to the Party Central But everyone knows the Central Committee of the Party is him The Party Central The other more than two hundred central committee members Only him alone is considered the Party Central Committee I don't know if you've ever participated in China Similar small committee meetings held by the Communist Party Or if you have ever worked in China Can you imagine the atmosphere and scene at the time I think, of course, everyone is a cicada enduring the cold When we encounter these so-called ideological review meetings Everyone needs to have the right attitude As per the unified voice, This way, you can stay safe But I think it's like This is an outcome he has actually achieved within the leadership Everyone is lying low Xi Jinping is now facing a major issue, This is something his predecessor has never encountered Are the incompetence and inefficiency of the bureaucratic echelon because the bureaucratic hierarchy is always ready for rescue, If you don't do anything, it's wrong You're also wrong in what you do Because the standard for judging an action It's always changing with the superiors He appreciates you because of your achievements today But the more you do The more skeptical you are, the more likely you are to embroil those around you. You could potentially be caught because of it And there's all kind of snitching going on It could backfire Your results have become irrelevant It has become like, for instance, in the United States Like Qin Gang, he interacts with all sectors of society You should look on the bright side. As for Xi Jinping, he is steadying the overall U.S-China relations They made contributions But to look at it from the worst perspective, You might have many incorrect positions. Where are you going It's a stern face of Zhao Lijian No one would interact with you So during Qin Gang's term as the US ambassador He should also manifest which is slightly different from his predecessors. There must be a relaxed and conciliatory posture So much so that American society had a time when it felt Could he be representing a shift in attitudes towards the U.S.? but if you say so, Naturally, all sorts of opportunities for corruption and co-optation have come It represents the achievements you have made today Tomorrow it could turn into your wrongdoing Under such circumstances We have no choice but to lay low Actually, recently Some news came out from the top echelon of the Chinese Communist Party It indeed strongly encourages you to lie low It means that we only solve people, not problems One was at the central economic work meeting at the end of last year That chance has essentially gone to waste Everyone is anticipated to face so many aspects. No matter local debt financial issues, The issues with the banking system and the real estate market There's also the problem of unemployment Everyone is hoping for this year's Central Economic Work Conference Will put forward a clear plan for next year In the end, there's nothing but slogans Then again, it's not that you have no solid evidence The most concrete action that appeared after the meeting was the National Security managing the economy Even after several articles were published, we must not forget about the economy. And then Caixin published an editorial called 'seeking truth from facts'. As a result, the editorial was immediately deleted It's particularly interesting This means the signal is just too clear. They just don't want to be realistic. You talk about seeking truth from facts, but I won't let you speak Which essentially sends a very strong message to all officials It's like only solving people, not solving the problem now. Therefore, solving people's problems is a matter of loyalty At the very least, the first step is this thus everyone has to show loyalty in a unified manner, Which resulted in all problems effectively in a standstill. In a state where it is completely ignored as if it doesn't exist So, the atmosphere within the Communist Party of China is I believe this could exacerbate the ongoing economic crisis. When it bursts, the devastation will be especially intense. Indeed However, you have a problem You brought this up when we were dining the day before yesterday. I think this question is excellent We can discuss it in details, Or you can start by sharing your views So you're saying that Xi Jinping has spent the past ten years defeating the Jiang faction, the Youth League faction, the Princelings, and the Sea Turtles. The people around him have changed several times So where is his actual basis of rule now? Who exactly is supporting him? What do you think? I think Xi Jinping's current situation If we summarize it with a phrase from I Ching That is a verse from the sixth folk song, known as 'Regrets of Resisting the Dragon' When Confucius explained this nursery rhyme Three explanations were given One is noble and fearless. Then it's high and without people Then there are those who are idle and without assistance Being respected yet fearless indicates his esteemed status. What kind of veteran is he? Celebrities are precious But he does not hold specific power So under such circumstances, the greater your influence, The more famous you are, the more harmful it is to you The more others will fear you So for people like this If the confrontations continue to escalate, If he continues to expand his influence at this pace, It would bring disaster upon him He often has regrets It will harm himself Xi Jinping's situation should be high but not popular He holds a very high position But there is no real force supporting him Support for the leader comes from two sides On one hand, there's emotional admiration It comes from his personal charisma Also, his basic personality traits and ideas are identified and approved This among the public He has a strong trust and enthusiasm among the public Another one is due to the connections of interests. Then you have indeed shared benefits with many people Make others tie their future with yours Then the most ideal situation A leader possesses both aspects. But if it comes to thought and interest If one has to be chosen, Your charismatic personality and ability to spread your ideas usually It will last even longer. It would bring more lasting loyalty Xi Jinping certainly doesn't have the first part He obviously did not have The problem now is that the second part is also very mysterious He didn't have the second part either Especially after the start of this pandemic These past few years These practically represent all of Chinese society The beneficiaries of the reforms and opening up process in the past 20 or so years They are all the losers From the middle class And then to the private entrepreneurs Then to the corrupt individuals within the system. They were scared witless And then to the 'Crown Prince Party' group They are all losers Possibly during the pandemic In the industry of vaccines and nucleic acid test reagents Rumors abound that Xi Jinping's family has reaped benefits. It seems like the boss of Ke Xin suddenly passed away these days Then Ko Hsin was discontinued because Ke's new staff couldn't afford to pay wages anymore, Recently, there seem to be many big shots from industries related to the epidemic Various bizarre news have been spreading in the past year or two These are the ones that were said to be close to Xi Jinping The old officials and staff members who followed him into Beijing. They also obtain benefits It's not about enlarging the cake Instead, they got it from other interest groups Redistributing the cake The territory is being re-divided This will disrupt the existing benefits structure So Xi Jinping is making unprecedented challenges now Why can he still maintain rule? This is indeed a peculiar phenomenon Under normal circumstances, in other historical periods and societies Such ruler in fact should find it difficult to stand now Then I interpret it as It's a general fear of Communist Party authority in Chinese society. Even if the most incompetent person is in that position Then everyone feels they have to be somewhat inferior to him It's very frightening. Anyone who mastered that violence machine Even if he just holds the power in name Many people would be afraid of him Then, the elimination of this sense of fear you might just have to wait for the entire system to become paralyzed. And when everyone gradually discovers that this machine is not functioning In my opinion, this kind of rebellious spirit and its significance to Xi Jinping All kinds of uncontrollable events will occur Simply put, civil servants have not had a salary for two years That would be getting pay without doing the work Then suddenly one day Another assembly similar to the Blank Paper Revolution has occurred Everyone thinks it's strange for anyone who can stand out Why hasn't the police come to arrest me yet Because the police have already gone to deliver food Just kidding Maybe he also can't get a salary There are times when he needs to provide for his family The efficiency of regime repression has suddenly dropped There was a time when some people suddenly gathered without getting arrested Then it was over Even after the incident, the police never came looking for him again Then such a sense of fear fades into a layer After it happens several times Perhaps a sudden incident could trigger it People's overall fear of the system has greatly weakened It involves the possibility of the current social development trend So the present of Xi Jinping. He still appears to be in a safe position Despite being on the brink of a crisis But if it seems unshakable I believe it's mainly due to people's habits Years of accumulated fear of violence against the system Right?
What do you think Who is still supporting Xi Jinping after all? will the army truly be loyal This implies that Xi Jinping is currently purging the military The greatest damage was to the interest of the Crown Prince Faction. It's unknown whether Zhang Youxia can safely step down from his position now But it's obviously led by Zhang Youxia and his group That is, the people from the past Equipment Development Department Now they are facing retribution So, I believe Because Li Shangfu is the head of the Equipment Development Department succeeding Zhang Youxia Most of the people arrested were Zhang Youxia People pushed forward by Zhang Youxia Hence, I think But now, Xi Jinping is resorting to terrifying politics. He doesn't need his own people Because we can fly his flag if it's one of us Throwing weight around outside And what scares him the most Therefore, he relentlessly attacks himself. When everyone is not one of us Isolating themselves little by little Isolated He is also afraid of being deceived by everyone Just now, the earliest story that the teacher mentioned in the article So about being realistic and seeking truth from facts that we just talked about, I believe that being realistic is the motto of the Central Party School in Beijing The Chinese calligraphy on the wall at the entrance is that of Mao Zedong To tell the truth at that time I often Back then, I was often among Japanese politicians Go to Beijing to interview there I followed and went in for the interview Japan also knows many Chinese idioms I'm not sure what the Japanese think about this idiom. I explained it to him I'm saying, don't lie about this Then do more and brag less Essentially, in simple terms, this is what it means. The Japanese think he is not one Is it the minimum requirement for civil servants? He said it's like what he imagined What is it for the world to be public? The reason why people are always on my mind There are some lofty slogans You hold the position of the Central Party School But why I feel that there has been too much deceptiveness and false talk Therefore the leadership of the Central Committee He has had enough of being deceived So I wrote this as a reminder for you In other words, you supplement what you lack What is most lacking in China's officialdom is this kind of He is someone who talks less and does more So now China has entered this mode Actually, I think when Deng Xiaoping started the era of reform and opening up Most people don't really understand the term 'realism' Because you can get promoted by executing tasks effectively Working on GDP can boost development Everyone is busy working. However, the focus remains on economic development. That's why, but now as for Xi Jinping, I think We have to return to the era of seeking truth from facts. I wonder when Xi Jinping will be there They're starting to advocate for practicality and realism It seems the times of Mao Zedong have truly returned. Just now we mentioned how he cornered the Jiang faction After the collapse of the Crown Prince faction and the Taiwan Regulation Battalion It's not clear that his rule is based on the secretary gang Most are just the secretaries helping out. Because Tsai Chi and Li Keqiang were his former secretaries The eunuch is in power how he ended up in his old age under such circumstances Whether he would suddenly collapse due to a coup Wouldn't it be reminiscent of the situation when Niklaus Khrushchev fell from power? Nikita Khrushchev served as the General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union for ten years Doing just fine Suddenly one day His friends in the Political Bureau His colleagues in the Politburo held a meeting behind his back Summon him and say you're fired Would such a thing happen in China? I think it's a black swan event That's why it's a black swan event. That is, it has never happened before It's hard for everyone to predict However, history is, in fact, a pile-up of a series of unexpected events It's not constructed by a series of regular events So how will Xi Jinping finally wrap up I think from the general logic of politics So, if there is no significant loyalty to him, He is also in an environment that lacks the rule of law The leader who was born His position is hard to maintain for a long time As to how exactly his situations cause him to collapse We don't know, But I believe he will collapse in a specific way It would coincide with the malfunction of the entire bureaucratic system It is that his power will decrease as people's fear of the entire CCP system decreases It's accompanied by such a process He has lost his power Actually, there are a lot of structural problems in China right now That is, he is one of them Why do officials choose to lay low There are many internal conflicts in the policy If we are to put it in context now, Xi Jinping emphasizes national security very much Even at a point, it's said, Now it is focused on economic development, turning to national security In reality, it's all about the security of the Chinese Communist Party's regime. But in reality, in the official narrative of the Chinese Communist Party There has never been a statement like this, It's been said that the focus of our work has shifted. Therefore, the officials are now faced with a dilemma Is to both attract businesses and invite capital As well as having to hunt down half a million spies everywhere. In reality, you can't accomplish these two things. What should we do then? The best performance of an official is to manage both sides These are all just for show. It's a form of laying low Then another kind of performance is For instance, about the real estate industry The real estate industry is a highly localized industry He must have regulated the real estate industry There is certainly a need to grant local governments great authority However, this aligns with conforming everything to the Central Government Especially concerning macroeconomic policies related to finance, The range at which your local government can operate is very limited In reality, has caused the crisis to become unsolvable what can be done? Everyone is just going through the motions Then, he just laid low Therefore, it could potentially lead to the failure of the whole bureaucratic system The economy becomes worse after the bureaucracy fails The fiscal revenue is less Then it would be even more of a case of income not covering expenditure Perhaps one day, a police officer will be sought Can't find any police, they've all become delivery guys Such scenarios are indeed possible. So I believe the ultimate outcome for Xi Jinping It would definitely be along with the collapse of the entire system People's resistance to systemic violence As long as there are one or two instances of this violent malfunction If the expected violence doesn't occur People's fears would be greatly reduced So it means that Xi Jinping will die with the Chinese Communist Party The death of the CCP coincides with Xi Jinping's In fact, I disagree with the statement that Xi Jinping fell. The Chinese Communist Party will maintain this for a long time Here's what I think Xi Jinping doesn't survive on the CCP In reality, the Chinese Communist Party stands on Xi Jinping's support, If Xi Jinping falls, I think it's also hard for the Chinese Communist Party to continue this way. What do you think? I think Mao Zedong in his later years Around Mao Zedong, there was a person named Zhang Yufeng He's the lifestyle secretary There's also one named Tang Wen-Sheng and Wang Hai-Rong These are two basic-level officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs These two people are at Mao Zedong's place every day And there's a Mao Yuanxin who is a joint worker He is his nephew All rely on these few These few are at the administrative level of the Chinese Communist Party They are all very lowly people Or people who don't even rank But for example, like Zhang Yufeng Mao Zedong's speech was not clear in his later years Don't know what to say Only Zhang Yufeng can translate this. So, the responsibility of the fake imperial edicts all fell on Zhang Yufeng Everyone is trying to please Zhang Yufeng What Zhang Yufeng said, The chairman may say something Creating a very abnormal power structure When Mao Zedong died These people will soon vanish like smoke. I have thoughts about Xi Jinping's later years Probably the main reliance is on Xi Mingze. We are out of time for today Thank you both so much. Many thanks to Wen Jian for coming to our show Thank you Thank you, Mr. Yaita Thank you all Thank you. Thank you,
