You're Not Bluffing Enough in Poker. Here's why

today I'm going to teach you a very powerful  technique how to calculate value to Bluff ratios   in poker this technique lets you understand  how often you should be bluffing but also how   often your opponents ought to be bluffing  if they were balanced let's get started many players learn the basic Bluff value ratios  on the river but poker is not a one street game   you're not just playing a river there are multiple  betting streets and each Street compounds these   effects allowing you to Bluff more and more  often assuming you're using a polarized range   so in today's lecture we're going to go over  understanding the concept of indifference we'll   talk about the theory of Leverage we'll talk about  how to calculate value to Bluff ratios on the   river and finally we're going to work backwards  from the river and show you how this works in a   multi-street game so that you can calculate these  numbers on the turn and the Flop as well let's   start by talking about indifference indifference  in poker means that two actions have the same   value for example if you have a bluff catcher  that's right on the edge of the line facing a bet   your hand might be indifferent between calling  and folding if you have like a thin value hand   it might be indifferent between checking and  betting and all indifference means again is that   two actions have the same value so the reason  we understand indifference is to find balance   and the goal of balance is not by itself to be  balanced but rather to understand where the line   is to understand what balanced play looks like in  a vacuum when you understand where the line is you   have a baseline from which to deviate if your  opponents are for example not bluffing enough   or bluffing too much and in contrast you'll also  see where your own leaks might be to understand   Bluff to Value ratios we need to understand  how to solve a basic polarized River toy game   so here Hero has Ace Ace or queen queen they  have value or Bluff villain holds a bluff catcher   there's a half pot bet we can either shove or  give up with our queen queen sometimes so what   is our best strategy to solve this is pretty  straightforward of course we always want to   Value BET our essays and we need to Bluff enough  to prevent villain from always folding otherwise   their value hands don't get paid off at the  same time if we Bluff too much then they can   snap call all the time and now we're losing too  much money with our Bluffs so the correct amount   of Bluffs sits somewhere in between if you do  the math you'll find that the correct Bluff   percentage on the river is always equal to the  pot odds laid in this example we're betting half   pot what that means is that villain is getting  plot odds of 25 they need at least 25 percent   equity in order for their kings to break even  after calling if we Bluff less than 25 percent   well in that case they can always fold and if  we blow up from more than 25 percent then they   should always call now in practice you're  never going to get this just right you know   who knows exactly how often you're bluffing in  every spot but you can develop a sense for it   a really simple way to go about this on the river  anyway is to Simply use a pot odds chart so we've   got this one here on the left hand side you'll see  the BET size as a percentage of the pot and on the   right hand side you'll see the value to Bluff  construction and so for example for a half pot   bets we see that 75 percent of our betting range  should be value and 25 percent of our betting   range should be Bluffs and that's again because  they need 25 Equity to break even on a call and   therefore if a quarter of our Ranger Bluffs  then we make them indifferent between calling   and folding and you'll notice something here the  larger we bet the more Bluffs we could use so if   you bet 150 pot well in that case villain has  let's see they need somewhere like 37 38 equity   to call us bats and therefore a larger proportion  of our betting range can be Bluffs now keep in   mind that this is assuming a perfectly polarized  toy game where our value hands are always the   nuts and our Bluffs always lose in reality your  opponent might have some traps and that's going   to limit how big you can bet because you don't  want to bet so large that you're only getting   action from the few traps they have right so  returning to the toy game our value percentage   should be 75 percent our Bluff percentage should  be 25 percent which matches the pot odds for a   half pot bet conversely villain should call  according to the minimum defense frequency   which in this case is two-thirds of the time okay  let's see if you were paying attention here's a   quiz for you fill in bets seven big lines into  a 10 big blind pot on the river you shove for 25   big blinds what is the optimal value to Bluff  ratio take a moment to consider your answer [Music] thank you the answer is B 70 value 30  percent Bluffs that's how often we should be   value betting when we check raise shove the river  so the way you work this out is you calculate the   pot outs of your shove how do you calculate pot  odds well the equation is simply the amount they   have to call divided by the parts after they call  so they need to call 25 minus 7 because they've   already bet seven so 18 more big blinds and the  pawn after they call is 60 biplines 18 over 60   gives us thirty percent and therefore we they need  exactly 30 Equity to call now if you imagine that   we're raising the river with only nutted hands  that always beat their value and Bluffs that   always lose to their calls well in that case we  need exactly seventy percent value okay let's talk   about the theory of Leverage Leverage is a really  interesting concept now this idea has been known   for a long time the way that these Bluff to Value  ratios work this has been known since mathematics   of Poker I first learned it from applications  of No Limit Hold'em by Shonda but Andrew brocos   one of our writers hero wrote about it in his  book play optimal poker and he describes this   phenomenon as leverage and Leverage is this  compounding effect of you can use more Bluffs   on earlier streets as the bluffed Valley ratio  compounds and so the way he words it Leverage   is the additional value gained from betting hands  that you anticipate profitably betting on future   streets so hands that can bet multiple streets  as part of a polarized range benefit the most   from Leverage especially deep stacked if you want  to learn more about leverage we have this article   what is leverage in poker Link in the description  it's a good intro to this concept let me give   you an example of Leverage so imagine that you're  playing a hand and you have a static Bluff catcher   facing a pot sized bet on the turn your opponent  is using a range of 20 nuts to 10 Bluffs so two   to one how often should you call their turn  bet take a moment to consider your answer [Music] surprisingly the answer is zero you should  actually just fold everything and this I think   is going to be more surprising to the people that  already kind of understand this topic because if   you look at the actual numbers they have two  value bets for every Bluff and a pot sized bet   lays what pot odds two to one so if we only look  at the immediate pod odds we are getting pot odds   to call this bet and yet the best move is to  always fold why is that well the answer is that   villain is under bluffing because it's not just  a pot sized bet you see let's think about this   they have a range of two to one value to Bluff 20  knots to ten Bluffs we have static Bluff catchers   that is to say Bluff catchers that always beat  Bluffs and always lose the value can't improve   there's a pot sized bed behind on the river  what this means is that villain can always   bet the river right because they have the correct  value to Bluff ratio to pot the turn and then pot   again on the river and so essentially we're not  facing a pot sized bet we are facing a pod sized   bet and another pot sized bet for a total of like  effective 400 pot and so what ends up happening is   we are risking essentially four hundred dollars to  win 500 if we call down both bets starting with a   100 pot for this reason they actually need to be  bluffing more often on the turn and this is the   concept of Leverage without draws or implied odds  or any of those other abstract terms the simple   ability to bet twice with a polarized range or  bet three times allows you to apply leverage now   what I'd like to do next is visualize the money  but I can't quite do that just yet first I need   to teach you guys about a misconception in poker  you've probably heard this idea that the Eevee   of folding is equal to zero well this is a fine  way to look at it it's just a convention we use   to make the math easier you see other reference  points are also useful in fact what most solvers   do is they don't use EV equals zero they use the  expected value of actions is equal to the start   of your stack at the start of a hand minus your  stack at the end of a hand so let me give you an   example of what that might look like this was one  of the first articles I wrote for GTO Wizard and   it's called what is expected value in poker and  over here I wrote a section about EV relativity   and so here's an example let's say that you three  bet Ace Queen suited on the big blind and you face   a four bet from the button you can either fold  call or shove now if we check the expected value   of Ace Queen Suited we can see the expected value  of folding is zero calling is four and shoving is   2.5 and so calling is the best action however this  is not the expected value we actually get from a   silver from a silver it actually calculates this  assuming that your three bet was to 11 big blinds   and so again we're choosing between three options  and trying to choose the best option which in this   case is calling but the actual amount of money  you'll make relative to your stack is losing about   seven big blinds on average now why am I teaching  you this because using a common reference point is   really useful for understanding multi-street EV  calculations this concept of folding equals zero   EV is is great for one street calculations but it  kind of fails miserably when you're trying to do   EV calculations over multiple streets and so you  need to kind of let that idea go and use a fixed   reference points for your EV calculations if you  want to calculate multiple streets of betting so   with that EV perspective in mind let's now  visualize the money because a lot of people   don't understand how you can face a balanced bet  on the turn and yet it's a bad call so let's take   a look here we'll start on the left hand side  it's a 100 pot a 400 stack and villain bets a   hundred dollars on the turn we can either call or  fault if we call villain will always bet the river   if we call again and we win we'll win 500 that  is the starting stack so villain stack plus the   pot if we call and lose we'll lose our 400 stack  now conversely if we call the turn and then fold   the river we'll lose our turn call which is a  hundred dollars and the final option is to just   fold immediately on the turn and lose zero so this  is our fixed reference point let's calculate how   much money each line makes and so if we calculate  our equity on the river it turns out to be minus   a hundred dollars and so one-third times 500 plus  two-thirds times 400 gives us a minus one hundred   dollar River call conversely folding is also worth  minus one hundred dollars and so we're indifferent   between two minus one hundred dollar decisions on  the river and you see the problem is that they'll   always bet the river so if we trace the decision  back back back to our turn call we'll see that the   best option was actually just to fold immediately  and never see a river to begin with and so this   begs the question why do we ever call down with a  static Bluff catcher well how often should villain   actually be bluffing the turn for this to make  sense and so let's add another diagram and this   time we've given villain a give up range and these  are hands that will bet the turn and then give up   on the river when this happens we're going to win  the pots a hundred dollars plus their turn bet   so a grand total of 200 and if this happens often  enough we can recuperate our turn bet again if we   calculate the expected value we find that we need  them to give up on the river at least a third of   the time and bet again two-thirds of the time and  in fact the math works out such that their give   up frequency on the river should be equal to our  pod odds on the turn regardless of the bat size   and so that's how you actually recuperate your  money with a static Bluff catcher you recuperated   through villain giving up on later straights and  a villain is not giving up on later straights that   tells you that either a they're over bluffing  they're just not taking their foot off the gas   pedal or B they were under bluffing to begin with  and never needed to slow down because they were   too nitty to start with okay so you understand  how to calculate these value to Bluff ratios for   one street and we've seen the power of Leverage  now it's time to understand how this extends to   multiple streets so how often should villain be  bluffing the turn if ten Bluffs wasn't enough   remember the stack the Pod ratio is four we're  facing a pot sized turn bet and there's another   pot sized bet behind on the river and villain  starts with 20 nut combos how many turn Bluffs   do they need in order to be balanced on the turn  take a moment to consider your answer [Music]   the answer is D 55 in fact they should be bluffing  more often than their value betting on the turn in   order for us to have a break even call with our  Bluff Catcher And so this brings us back to the   power of Leverage here I've graphed the value to  Bluff ratio on the Flop turn and river and we can   see they can use more Bluffs in the Flop than  they can in the turn than they can on the River   on each Street we expect them to give up with a  portion of their Bluffs and bet such that they're   balanced by the river how do they construct their  strategy let's walk through this step by step with   an example so again let's imagine this time that  we're hero and we're the polarized player holding   either a value bet or a bluff and just pretend  that our value bets will always be value at our   Bluffs will always be Bluffs and their Bluff  catchers will always be Bluff catchers we start   with eight knotted hens and 37 total combinations  so 29 of those combinations are bluffs we're going   to fill out this table together to show you how  to calculate value to Bluff ratios over multiple   Straits so first of all in a perfectly polarized  toy game you always want to bet your value hands   so our value hands always bet flop turn and  River and the reason for this is that there's   no reason to trap if you don't have any Showdown  value so in this case if we check why would they   bet just to fold out our Bluffs and get called  by any traps now betting does nothing for them   so there's no reason for us to trap or to protect  that range so we're always going to bet our value   Okay so we've got that column figured out what  about the bluff column well we know on the river   that and again we're using a pot pot so we're  potting all three straights on the river we should   be bluffing half as often as we're value betting  we want to use two to one two value bets for every   one Bluff and so we already know this column but  how often we should we be giving up well a give up   percentage is equal to odd odds laid on the turn  and so odds laid for a pot sized bet so 33 percent   so we should be giving up a third of our range  on the river and that works out to six so six   over eighteen is one third a third of the time we  give up now that we know how many Bluffs we have   on the river we know how many Bluffs we have on  the turn six plus four is ten and again our give   up range should be such that we're giving up a  third of the time on the turret which works out   to nine and again ten plus nine that's nineteen  and that leaves the remaining 10 give UPS on   the Flop and so we can already figure out with if  we just know the total number of nuts and Bluffs   how often we should be value betting and bluffing  on each Street let's visualize that on the right   hand side we can see a flow chart that shows how  often we're value betting and bluffing each Street   as well as our give UPS now why did we  calculate all this what is the point   well the ultimate goal is very simple we  just want to get our value bets paid off   as often as possible without becoming  exploitable by over bluffing and so we   arrive at the river with a perfectly balanced  range of eight value bets to every four Bluffs   well simultaneously giving up just often enough  Reven villain from snap folding earlier so the   entire purpose of this strategy is to get your  value bets paid off as much as possible now you   may be asking yourself this is based on Three Pot  sized bets however you can calculate this for any   batch size it's actually relatively simple now I  have a simple spreadsheet application here caveman   GTO calculator you might have seen from some of  my earlier work but I've never actually explained   how this works the math is fairly straightforward  so for a perfectly polarized range that is to say   value bets always win Bluffs always lose the value  betting percentage is just one minus the product   of the Pod odds so for example in the river one  minus the river pot odds is equal to the amount   of value you should have right if you bet pots  on the river you're laying pot odds that dictate   33 Bluffs and therefore two-thirds value and so  you can multiply it out for example in the turn   you can multiply out one minus the turnpot odds  multiplied by one minus the River Products and   that gives you the percentage of value that  you should be betting with on the turn and   same thing for the Flop just the product of one  minus pod odds pretty straightforward calculation   so let me show you the caveman GTO calculator next  okay this is a pretty basic application again we   can enter any set of bet sizes here so 67 89  152 uh it'll just calculate this out for you   so let's just go over the assumptions that we're  making here we assume that villain can only call   or fold which again if we're perfectly polarized  there they would have no reason to raise we assume   that Equity is static that we're balanced and  that there are no blocker effects so this is a   a nice simple toy game I've also included  sections here to add the equity of your   Bluffs and value bets and this is a calculation  that Janda did in his work applications of No   Limit Holdem in my experience this actually does  not work out well because the way he models it   he models a bluff for example having 20  Equity meaning that it always has 20 percent   no matter how much you narrow the opponent's  range or conversely if you have value bets   he would model that as this always has  eighty percent no matter how much we   narrow the opponent's range which  isn't really the case in reality   so I'm not actually going to use that I'm just  going to use perfectly polarized equity and here   we can see the value to Bluff ratios on flop turn  and River and so let's enter our pot pot toy game and here we can see the appropriate value to  Bluff ratio says we should be bluffing quite   a lot on the Flop less so on the turn and less  so on the river now next I'd like to show you   how this actually works in GTL Wizard and we'll  compare the idealized caveman toy game to what   the solver thinks we should be doing but before  we do that we need to address the elephant or   rather the cow in the room you see the cow is a  sphere but what this means is that we're trying   to represent an extremely complex topic which is  Nash equilibrium in poker in an almost infinite   game space with a super basic toy game model and  this doesn't really match reality our Equity is   not static Bluffs and value is a false dichotomy  on earlier straights and we can't perfectly plan   out bet sizes we can't just pretend that we know  exactly what bet size we're going to use and we   can't pretend that we don't have Showdown value  in some of these lines this is not how actual poke   Works obviously however the reason we represent  the cow as a sphere in physics and the reason   we use oversimplified models in engineering  to represent more complex topics is because   it allows us to understand the inner mechanics  behind how stuff works and once you understand   those inner mechanics you can extrapolate those  ideas and Abstract them to more complex spots to   spots that cannot be calculated with standard  handwritten calculations as you could with   this toy game and so by using simplified models  like this we can understand spots more deeply   and understand this idea of Leverage and Bluff  to Value ratios compounding on a better level   so without further Ado let's open GTA Wizard and  see how the solver applies these Concepts now the   beauty of this is that it works for all formats  MTT cash heads up Spin and goes you name it the   the math is universal throughout poker so I've  got three examples here we'll look at an MTT   spot first at 35 big blind steep for this first  example I've chosen a hijacked versus button spot   so hijack opens the button calls Bob is  Queen five for rainbow I jack see bets   and we get a raise in position this is going  to give us a pretty polarized line that will   match our toy game model quite well eject  calls turn is the Deuce of Clubs Daryl a jack calls again and on the river  we ship it in for the last 40 pot   now when button shoves hijack has 22 pod odds  22 Equity all and therefore button should be   bluffing 22 percent of the time just go over  to the ranges tab look at the equity buckets   see at 22 percent of buttons  shoving range contains Bluffs   exactly what we expect going to our toy game model  typing at the BET sizes here so raise 33 percent   on the Flop Barrel 55 on the turn shove 40 on  the river and again we see a ratio of about 78.22   on the river Shelf what about the turn how closely  does that match if we just go back to the turn   after we've put in the 55 bet I just select the  best and the good hands that button is barreling   with see that 58 of their turn betting range  contains value bets again our tour game model says   57 pretty darn close lastly if I go over to the  flop after button has raised and this time instead   of equity buckets let's use hands is and this may  be a little easier to Define this as the value bet   what does it say 48 so about 48 of buttons flop  raising range should contain value BET our toy   gay model predicts 46 percent pretty darn close  all right for this next example we're going to   take a look at a cutoff versus big blind 200 big  blind deep cash game so cutoff opens and big blind   calls see a queen 4 Deuce rainbow flop cut off  cvet's third pot and the big blind hits him with   a pot sized check race representing sets two pair  and top pair cut off calls Knight of Hearts turn   and the big blind continues to Barrel  referring this 125 over bet size cut off calls river is the Queen  of Hearts pairing the top card   and the big blind ships it in  representing a whole lot of boats   so after the big land shubs there's a little  thing here we've just added this feature this   shows your pod odds and so the cutoff's  Pod odds facing this shove are 38 percent   going back to the start of the lecture what  does that tell you well it tells you that   about 38 of the big Blends shoving range should  contain Bluffs and that's exactly what we see   just select all of these bluffy hens at 38 percent or we can select the value hens about 60 to  63 percent so let's go over to our caveman   GTO calculator to see if it agrees with us we  check raised Parts on the Flop over bet the   turn and shipped it in on the river so on the  river we would expect about 62 percent value   and that's exactly what we see now again it's  not going to be perfect because there's some   minor blocker effects but this is pretty  darn close so let's go back to the turn   we've overbed 125 action on cutoff and I'm  just going to select our value hands here   so again these sets these two pairs these are  clearly value uh the only other question is   does top pair count as value and so if we  include these we have Queen Seven Queen six   Queen five Queen three some very marginal top  hair weak kicker hands as a merged bet and so   then we'd have 43 percent value bets and if you  don't include some of those then it's closer to   37 value bets so somewhere between 37 and 43. and  if we go over here we expect in an idealized toy   game about 40 Value so lastly going over to the  Flop after we've check raised pot we can select   let's say top pair plus as our value region it  gives us about 30.7 uh if you don't count some of   the mergy top pair then it's maybe closer to like  25 percent and that's exactly what we see here   now you'll notice something else we're very deep  in this spot which means that the big blind can   over bet twice and this means that they can  Bluff more we can see that they only need about   a quarter of their range to be value bets on the  Flop check raise so the deeper you are the more   important the nut Advantage becomes because you  can polarize much harder when you're able to bet   much bigger and that also means that a larger  portion of your range can start Bluff racing   relative to the number of value hands you have  okay for our last example we have a heads up sit   and go 25 picked lines deep the small blind starts  with a two big blind open and yes I know if you   haven't seen heads up sit and go Solutions there  is a lot of limping in position that is just part   of the strategy so they open big blind calls  and we get a low connected flop six for deuce   the aggressor C bets and the big blind again  check raises and I'm showing you a lot of   raising lines because these are quite polarized  and will closely match our toy game models uh   whereas here it's very hard to tell where  the Bluffs end and the value bets begin so   they raise and we got an another low  connected card this time the five of clubs   which is actually pretty good for the big blinds  Check Racing line they have a lot of these low   cards this hits their check race well so they  continue to Barrel this time two-thirds pot   and we get an ace on the river and so the big  blind shoves it in with a good portion of their   range representing mostly straights or nothing  now let's take a look at the value to bet ratio   so on the river again I'm going to use the ranges  Tab and we're going to use well let's just say   straights and maybe two pairs two pair value bet  it's hard to say uh about 70 72 percent equity   that's approximately how many value bats they  should be using on the river let's see what our   toy game model says check raise 33 on the Flop  65 cbat on the turn 59 on the river okay so on   the river we expect about 73 value bets okay that  makes sense for this size this is the Pod odds for   a 60 pot size bed and yeah this is exactly what we  see now on the turn we would expect to see about   52 value bets so let's go back here we'll head  over to the turn so we've barreled the turn Barrel   and again let's just use I don't know two pair and  straights as the value portion of this C bet which   comes out to about 50 49.4 call that 50 percent  value bets on the turn for this bet size and yeah   here it says 52 so our toy game model predicts  slightly more value but the fact is we also block   a lot of the straights when we have a straight  so that changes the calculation a bit but we're   ignoring card removal in our simplified model and  finally on the Flop we expect about 42 value bets   here if we go back to the flop okay and  we say what are we check raising with   well let's see top pair two pair of sets all  of these hands so let's say top Hair Plus is   our value region that's about 39 of our overall  check raising value range and here it predicts 42   percent so reasonably close and you can see this  concept of Leverage is applied to all of these   scenarios and especially when I'm you know cherry  picking these very polarized lines this toy game   model works very well and so the real takeaway  here is that you need to be bluffing more on   earlier straights giving up portion of your range  and knowing that just because you have direct pot   odds to call doesn't actually mean that you should  be calling in fact you should be bluffing quite a   lot more on earlier straights and so should your  opponents and if you're playing against people   that aren't doing that well you know what to do  let's summarize so Leverage is the phenomenon   of compounding pot odds over multiple streets  and the result is that you should have more   flop Bluffs than turn Bluffs than River Bluffs  now if you're a cash game player who's mainly   playing 100 big blinds in single race Parts you  can use the one-third one-half two-thirds rule   this is a simple rule of thumb that tells you  approximately what portion of your range should   be value bets on flop turn and River your static  Bluff catchers recover their calls when villain   gives up and so a villain is not giving up often  enough your static Bluff catchers won't recuperate   their calls and so you should probably start over  folding those especially if your opponents are too   value heavy the give up percentage that is to say  the proportion of range that someone should give   up after bluffing is approximately equal to the  previous Street Pawn out so if someone bets pot on   the turn with a polarized range they should give  up approximately pod odds of the time on the river   so about a third of the time if they were to bed  for example half pots on the turn then you would   expect them to give up about a quarter of the time  on the river and that's ultimately how you recover   the previous Street call and finally if villain  isn't giving up enough they're unbalanced in some   way so either they're you know balanced on the  turn but then they're over bluffing the river or   they're under bluffing the turn and then directly  bluffing the river or somewhere in between there   but it is impossible to be balanced if they don't  have give ups and so a lot of old school poker   theories said you know you should just never  give up with a bluff if you're going to Bluff   just pull the trigger all the way through well  that might be fine exploitative advice sometimes   it disagrees directly with Game Theory which says  you actually need give UPS in order to achieve a   balanced range check out the articles in the  description for more information I'll post a   link there about leverage as well as the caveman  GTO calculator so you can read that if you want   to learn more about these Concepts if you have  any questions if you need something clarified   please reach out to our Discord Channel we'd love  to hear from you and as always happy grinding

Channel: GTOWizard

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Keywords: gtowizard, poker gto, poker, gto strategy, poker gto trainer, poker gto tutorial, gto poker software, gto poker, gto poker solvers, poker strategy, software poker, gto wizard, game theory optimal, online poker, gto, gto analysis, poker theory, poker coaching, poker charts, poker tips, poker strategy gto, how to gto, poker bluffing strategy, bluffing in poker, Youre Not Bluffing Enough in Poker Heres why, poker leverage, bluff catcher, how to bluff in poker, poker 2023

Id: G5XVN8Up45E

Length: 34min 39sec (2079 seconds)

Published: Mon Mar 20 2023