You're Drafting The Wrong Receivers

yeah you're drafting the wrong receivers but I'm here to save you I'm here to show you the light we're going to start off with two guys going back toback in the middle round so we're going to go to the early rounds go to the late rounds I just want to talk about Jordan Addison right away I can't help it okay Jordan Addison right now is my most drafted wide receiver on Underdog going as wide receiver 39 and romad Dun Say is going as wide receiver 38 let me convince you why I need to take Addison over Rome but first I do want to address why it is so important to get this decision correct and if you look at Underdog tiers right now specifically at the wide receiver position round six is your last shot to get a good one once you get to round seven especially at the end of round seven you are in a position where you are either going to be deciding between Aaron Jones rre Stevenson zamir white or Jameson Williams or courland Sut the gap between the running backs and the wide receivers once you get to round seven at least the end of round seven and espe into round eight is so wide I could never imagine taking a receiver there obviously you need to draft wide receivers so round six in my mind is the last chance you get and I think this decision is critical now I'm going to talk about Jordan Addison first because this is someone who I like I said I think he should have a higher ADP than Rome currently does but let me give you the Good the Bad and the Ugly the good with Jordan Addison we can date this back to college we can date this back to high school I mean there's so much pedigree coming out but anyway we'll just focus in on College this is a wide receiver that wins the bitnik off this is a wide receiver that gets the nil bag that's not as important as him then declaring to go to the NFL at 21 years old him then getting drafted in round one of the NFL draft so you have the prior with Addison that he's a good Prospect that's going to be very important because what we have historically shown is that if you have a wide receiver that is a good prospect that goes round one of the NFL draft and then all of a sudden he hits as a rookie that guy is the best bet you could make going into your to that's when you see the explosion that's when you see the league winners at least that's what we've seen over the past 10 years we'll see if history repeats itself usually it does now going over to Addison if we're looking at his season we can talk about the 11 fantasy points per game we can talk about 4.1 receptions 81 intended air yards per contest all those numbers are just counting stats it's going to be a little more interesting to look at the context of this is using the road of his screener and looking at all 21-year old wide receivers since the year 2000 to had similar Seasons to Jordan Addison you had a bust on this list recently in 2021 and this is at least historically the worst case scenario for Jordan Addison going into this next year is Elijah Moore I I want to give you the bust first just so we can be very clear with you but outside of that every other wide receiver that we saw historically comped to Jordan Addison at 21 years old Hakeem Nicks Larry Fitzgerald Juju Smith Schuster T Higgins CD lamb Percy Harvin Jeremy Macklin what's very interesting is if you look at the fantasy points per game for these wide receivers in their second Seasons you had anywhere from about 19 and a half fantasy points per game down to 14 and a half fantasy points per game with a median projection hovering around 16 fantasy points per game let's pull up where does 16 fantasy points per game get you and is it any higher than the wide receiver 39 now I have not done this uh beforehand so maybe I embarrassed myself no of course it's higher than the wide receiver 39 but I want to give you an exact number now I will say even though this been the historical Norm for wide receivers at 21 years old to produce around 16 fantasy points per game do I truly believe this is the median expectation for Jordan Addison this next season no I don't we'll talk about why but historically last year this would have been good for the wide receiver 14 finish so you have a natural projection of about the wide receiver 14 finish for someone you're taking up wide receiver 39 at the moment why am I not ranking Jordan Addison wide receiver 14 actually we'll get to the bad in one second let me also talk about one other positive that we have then I can give you all the ugly the positive that you have right now with Jordan Addison is not only just natural progression and the natural projections that you have from a good prospect that had a great rookie season going into his age 22 year but you also have vacated Targets in Minnesota KJ Osborne going over to New England opens up 75 targets 540 receiving yards and also TJ hackinson right now is going past Pick 150 in Underdog drafts obviously TJ hackinson is a top five tight in the NFL the reason he is going so late is people are currently projecting that T.J hackinson due to his injury is going to miss a large chunk of this night next season and hackinson was at 127 Targets this past year so if you look at the vacated targets Jordan Addison could go out there and he could pick up a considerable amount now let's talk about the ugly two things that are holding me back from ranking Jordan Addison at wide receiver 14 at wide receiver 15 where I honestly think he would be under a different Circumstance the two negative catalysts that are going to hurt Jordan Addison going into this year in comparison to what he dealt with last year is Kurt Cousins leaving I personally do not believe KK cousins is a great real life quarterback is an elite real life quarterback I think he's solid that's about it but Kurt Cousins is Elite at producing fantasy wide receivers Addison played eight games with Kurt Cousins last year and he averaged almost 16 fantasy points per game he played nine games with no KK cousins and he only averaged about 10 and a half clearly massive red flag the second thing is Jordan Addison had the benefit of playing seven games with no Justin Jefferson and in those seven games with no Justin Jefferson he is at about 14 and a half fantasy points per game and in the 10 games with Justin Jefferson he was only at about 12 so going into 2024 this should be a situation where Justin Jefferson is fully healthy Justin Jefferson dominates the target chair and you have worst quarterback play overall with no Kirk Cousins that is the reason that Jordan Addison is going right now as a wide receiver for in drafts but taking a step back and just thinking about the median projection that you'd possibly have of him around wide receiver 14 15 16 I I think it's too much of a discount that you are getting on Jordan Addison at the moment I am perfectly fine taking him if we're going to compare him to Rome what's very interesting is you also have rookie quarterback play in Chicago you also have a considerable amount of competition you have DJ Moore you have kandan Allen I mean hell you even have c m should have more targets than hackinson this year so you have un uncertain quarterback play probably good with Caleb we don't know though you you have a lot of Target competition Rome phenomenal Prospect just like Jordan Addison was a great Prospect but we don't have the confirmation of him hitting in year one we obviously know with these guys while they could go out there and they could turn into Jordan Addison and have a phenomenal age 21 season they could also turn into Quinton Johnston am I saying that Rome's going to do that no no I'm not saying that at all but at least with Addison I think the situation also has its red flags but we have confirmed at the NF level that this is someone that's extremely talented and I would rather make that bet on as and what's crazy is if you look at the underdog pickham at the moment Underdog currently has Jordan Addison higher lower six and a half receiving touchdowns and 825 and a half receiving yards whereas if you cross reference this with Rome Rome's only at four and a half receiving touchdowns and 750 and a half receiving yards am I coming out here and telling you oh go higher on both with Jordan Addison or go lower on both with Rome no I'm not telling you that at all just telling you I think that the market has this priced wrong in fantasy football drafts and I'm going to be drafting Jordan Addison over Roman Underdog I mean you can see me do it every single night on the live stream although we're drafting these teams every night and yeah if you want to draft with us on the live stream or if you want to go check out either of those Underdog picks and find that link in the description and the comment section and if you use code flock you're going to get our 2024 rankings we get our 2024 draft guide with code flock you'll get a 50% deposit bonus up to 250 bucks if you are new on $100 dog and yeah Underdog is available in every single state you can check if your States here if you wanted to hop in and yeah I mean it's best ball just in case you don't know so that's how we draft teams every single day says there's no time commitment during the year it's how 150,000 on Underdog two years scale but yeah let's actually move over to the earlier rounds real quick and let's look at someone that I drafted a lot of now I have a history with Michael Pitman to be honest with you last year I drafted a lot of Pitman he was a round seven pick six pick two years ago he was severely overdrafted he was going in round three of Underdog drafts after not really proving much and looking at what Pitman did this past season I think he has proven yeah he's a very strong pick if you get him in the middle rounds if you're able to get Michael Pitman in round six and round seven this is someone that can return value we saw him this past year at about 12 and a half fantasy points per game we actually saw some pretty good Advanced metrics you saw his intended air yards at 78 receiving yards per game you saw yards per route run be a career high at 2.2 which is great you'll love to see it but all of a sudden you are now seeing increased Target competition where ad Mitchell is going to come over and AD Mitchell I personally believe isn't going to be a great fantasy option I think ad Mitchell more so is going to be a field stretching player in this Colts offense hopefully he's better for the Colts than he is and actually fantasy football and and maybe he does create space underneath for Michael Pitman Jr and maybe Pitman is able to just eat with safety attention taken away but you also have Josh DS going into year two so I think that this is a situation where Michael Pitman Jr is going to face more Target competition this year than what he saw last year and also this could be a situation where the passing volume dramatically declines now if you are looking at Anthony richon currently Anthony Rich's a round five pick in fantasy football drafts for one reason and one reason alone that reason is rushing upside Rush rushing upside rushing upside if you actually look at the projectable passing volume for this offense it's going to be difficult to assume that Anthony Ron has them in the top half of the league just based off The Limited sample that we have based off Anthony richson almost being locked in as a rookie quarterback and last year while Garder muu definitely a worse real life option than Anthony richson based off the fact Gard mitchu doesn't have the same rushing upside gardam mitchu is also going to be maybe a little more turnover prone but he had them at three 3,800 passing yards this season I'm actually expecting that this volume comes down and I think that the issue that you're going to have with Pitman is just the ceiling is going to be severely capped going into his age 27 season and that we really haven't seen him at any point in his zal career average more than 12 fantasy points per contest I think the passing volume comes down in this offense and you have increased competition now I have a similar theme here with the guy you should be drafting instead when it comes to Z flowers Z flowers currently is going at 36 in Underdog ADP where Michael Pitman Jr is at 33 flowers is wide receiver 26 Michael Pitman Jr is at wide receiver 24 if you are looking at Z flowers here you have Target competition in the form of a tight end in Mark Andrews but we can pretty easily project out this offense in Baltimore where Baltimore last year you had 27 passing touchdowns you had about 3,900 passing yards and if we look at what the Ravens did at wide receiver this off season they lose Odell they bring in TZ Walker I mean TZ Walker no NFL draft most likely not going to do anything and it looks like Z flowers alongside Mark Andrews is just locked and loaded as the wide receiver one and we go back to where we're talking about with Jordan Addison what we have historically seen in the past is these wide receivers that were solid prospects coming out of school and Z flowers was just that he goes round one of the NFL draft once they hit their rookie Seasons they're extremely safe bets to take that massive step forward in year to now personally if we are looking at Z flowers from a talent perspective I don't think he's that much better than Jordan Addison to be honest with you but he has much better quarterback play I think he's in a much better situation doesn't have to go up against Justin Jefferson but that's all besides the point is if you are looking at flowers here this is a wide receiver that is going to be going into his age 24 season he was definitely an older rookie coming out of Boston College the guys that he comped to at 23 this past season were AJ Green Dwayne Bo Antonio Brown Jeremy Macklin Willie Sneed Ruben Randle Corin Robinson Jerry Judy as well as Rashid rice so obviously if he turns into Jerry Judy we're we're not really happy with it if he turns it to AJ Green we're ecstatic if you go over and look at the underdog pick thems right now you actually have Z flowers at 6 and a half receiv touchdowns you have Z flowers at 925 and a half receiving yards you have Michael Pitman Jr for more receiving yards currently have Michael Pitman Jr at about 1,50 I would actually be interested in going with the lower on Pitman here but what's also interesting is just with the projections of this Colts offense and so many rushing touchdowns going over to Anthony richson you currently are sitting with four and a half receiving touchdowns for the projection for Pitman I just think that Pitman probably should be a higher floor player but he's 27 years old he's going to have a rushan quarterback and his career is high as 12 fantasy points per contest I I think flowers has a higher ceiling and in these Underdog tournaments where it's like a $25 buying 1.5 million for first I I'm chasing the ceiling rather than the floor now let's go look at two boring names these are old men one's a lot older than the other but let's look at Tyler Lockett and Curtis Samuel now right now Curtis Samuel has an ADP of wide receiver 50 Tyler Lockett ADP of wide receiver 51 now lockett's back in Seattle this year you have the changing coaching staff right now Seattle projects out to actually be a little more pass happy than what they've been in the past which obviously should be a benefit for Tyler Lockett if you look at the wide receivers that Lockett had a similar age 31 season 2 you had Larry Fitzgerald keesan Johnson Amman tumer Maris coulston and then you had a bunch of guys that did not do anything at 32 years old going over and looking at Curtis Samuel which is actually very interesting Curtis Samuel this past year had a very poor season ladies I mean Curtis Samuel has not done anything in a very long time Curtis Samuel this past year was at 7.9 points per game he's at 1.6 yards per route run two years ago he's at 1.4 yards per route run and if you look at him at 27 and what guys did at 28 who comped similarly you had Michael Crabtree Mohammad senu Taylor Gabriel Samy Watkins regie Caldwell Kevin Johnson Dwayne Bates Kevin Dyson and Richie James you have one two three four five of these guys averaging fewer than five points per game the next season you have two of them averaging more than 10 points per game in the case of Curtis Samuel whereas if you're going to go over and you're going to look at Lockett the guys that comp to be like Tyler lock ET just have significantly higher floors now going over and looking at Samuel clearly the reason he is going this high is because he's attached to Josh Allen he should be in one of the most pass happy offenses in the NFL he he should be in an offense that just has so much passing volume and scores a ton of touchdowns so let's see what could Curtis Samuel look like in an offense that potentially leads the NFL in passing attempts oh that's what he was in last year obviously kind of a joke I I know the off is down but nonetheless what I think actually is important to look at with Curtis Samuel is going to be the contract situation because we can sit here and we can say oh okay I think that Curtis Samuel I think Tyler Lockett are this talented I I I understand I mean Samuel was exciting when he was back in Carolina but you can actually see what NFL teams think about these guys currently with the money that they are willing to give them at signing you go you look at someone like Calvin Ridley who gets paid $50 million guaranteed and then you go cross reference this with someone like Curtis Samuel who just signs for $15 million total guaranteed if you look at the underdog projected pickham right now Tyler Lockett is at 775 a half receiving yards Curtis Samuel is at 575 A5 I am not interested in either one of these players if if it is just a regular redraft league if you have to submit your starting lineup every single week and we're only starting say I I don't know two receivers One Flex there's no real upside in either player where they turn into an option where you go okay I know for a fact that this is someone that I can start in week three and they are going to perform well no they're both going to be very volatile options which is kind of what we look for in best ball and just going back and looking at at some games this year where you saw those Spike weeks from Tyler Lockett you get that Spike week against the Lions eight receptions a 60 receiving yards two receiving touchdowns you get the spike week against the Browns eight receptions 81 receiving yards the receiving touchdown get a spike week against the commanders eight receptions 92 receiving Ys the receiving touchdown you get a week against Tennessee eight receptions 81 receiving yards you get the Arizona game with 71 receiving yards and the receiving touchdown I just think lock is so much of a better player than Samuel I I think the contract is not too inspiring with Samuel I think if you look at the current historical projections based off Age and what they just did if you look at the current Underdog projected pick thems I I'm going to be going lockit over Curtis yeah we're going to go locket over Curtis I'm going flowers over Pitman but most importantly draft as Mo as much Jordan Addison as you can in round six right now but I think that's all I have for you hope you enjoyed the video hope you got something from it and yeah I'll be live later tonight be live tomorrow be live every single day drafting on Underdog so if you want to hop in draft with us find that link in the description in the comment section or if you just want to go and check out any of those Underdog pums should be available in pretty much every state you can see the map here

Channel: Flock Fantasy

Views: 33,105

Keywords: fantasyfootball, 2024fantasyfootball, fantasyfootball2024

Id: 6sEG-Q6Z-Zg

Length: 19min 44sec (1184 seconds)

Published: Sun Jul 07 2024