You CAN Buy A Rolex or Patek Right Now - No Shortage in 2021

we are back you are chatting with john p today i'm going to be talking about the actual real reason why you may not be able to purchase a rolex or a patek philippe watch now many of you probably saw a video that was recently released by teddy uh i happen to think it was a really great video uh really amazing um in terms of quality and the content and also the animations i think he did a great job i think he usually actually always everything that i've seen from him he does a great job so this is no way any kind of a jab or a take or a gotcha type of video this is more along the lines of a supplementation from my perspective of a watch dealer having traded loads of patek philippe and rolex watches and the things that i experience and this should shine a little bit more insight into kind of what happens between the authorized dealers the grain market dealers which myself is included in with delray watch by the way check out delraywatch.com where we do have some rolex watches uh in stock no 5711s but it's for a reason and the reason i'm going to be sharing with you along with why there is actually not a rolex or patek philippe shortage at all that's right you heard me say it there in my opinion in my argument is that there are actually not in the market any amount of shortages in terms of these watches protect philippe and rolex watches are readily available you just need to pay the price but first please do not forget the thumbs up like and subscribe i really do appreciate it and let me know what you think about the background and the lights i've been trying to spruce things up a little bit for you here in that regard and on the wrist today go figure a rolex watch rolex always perpetual 39 in red grape i love this watch so um let's talk about you know this perceived shortage if you're not familiar you know actually please i'll put a link below to teddy's video because i think it does a really great job at especially explaining where we are today and how some of the inter workings work so if you haven't checked that out make sure to check that below because that will give us a little bit of a starting point for this video i wouldn't really necessarily want to reiterate some of the points because i think he does a great job at explaining it and animating this but certainly over the last five years or so especially but increasingly so even upwards of a decade the patek philippe nautilus watches we're going to be looking at that as well as the rolex stainless steel sports models including the rolex daytona with the ceramic bezel these have been going up in desirability and some claim that there is this shortage because you cannot just walk into an authorized dealer and buy the watch the rolex daytona has always been a watch that was a little bit harder to get at least in the last decade of course increasingly so but this was a watch that was not really in high production rolex we know produces about a million watches a year of those million watches we don't have accurate figures for the number of daytonas but daytonas were not as common as something like a datejust or something like a submariner because it's a chronograph and someone had to really like the style to purchase it because chronographs for most people that were buying at that time 10 000 now upwards of 14 for i believe retail it would need to be a function that you would either want to use or you really like the style otherwise you may have you may opt in for something a little bit more approachable like the datejust or the oyster perpetuals of the time now when we're talking about shortages in these watch these watches rather let's first examine the patek philippe 5711 now one can just go online and go to places like chrono 24 and quickly search 5711 1a which is going to be the steel variant of the 5711 now just on chrono 24 alone there are over 200 i believe time of this shooting 234 listings for the 5711 1a this is not considering the different dial variations but this is the stainless steel nautilus will lump them together now if you go to other places like ebay and the forums and other common sellers that i go and look and i'm sure you all do as well the big sellers out there there happen to be about 300 on the internet now this is not even taking into consideration the amount of exec philippe 5711s that are in retail shelf stores if they're not online this is not taking into consideration private sellers that may be selling them locally or on consignment um or different consignment websites such as the real real which are technically private sites you can sign up very easily but i'm not even including that i just want to use 300 as a base number because that's all that i can accurately account for but this is also going to make the math a little bit more conservative too which i think really lends to support here the conclusion that there's really not a shortage so i do have my laptop here for the math because i do want to get this accurate for you to really drive home the point that i want to make where there's not a shortage you just have to pay the price the other thing to consider before i do the math here for you or with you rather is that there is a distinction between buyers customers consumers collectors right that is one segment but then you have this watch dealer slash flipper category now there could be a collector that just happens to put a watch up for sale like they you know they happen to be someone that spends a million dollars with a patek fleet boutique this happens all the time think hedge fund managers traders things like that these people exist and it does happen especially with a brand that only produces something like 60 000 watches a year patek philippe so uh this actually does happen quite often and these are the guys that are getting the watches they might put it up for sale and that's why you see a private collector on something like a chrono 24 trying to cash out but there are this other distinction of dealers that are much in the similar category that either obtain it through authorized dealers or purchase from one of these people that don't want to list it and do the work themselves so rolling back into 57-11 before i lose you here on chrono 24 and all the other places online 300 examples right patek philippe produces 60 000 watches per year and also it's important to note that the president of patek philippe when they recently discontinued the 57-11 before the green dial came out as the last hurrah they uh they did make an announcement in an interview a couple interviews actually saying they never intended and they did not in the past make the tech philippe a sports watch company so they have 114 models existing currently with 60 000 watches per year now even if we didn't divide the number of models by the number of watches they make per year to give us roughly how many 5711s they they might make we could even take it to a higher end and produce a range something like five percent right um there might be five percent of the sixty thousand watches being the 57 11 1a but we'll take a range here so either divided evenly among those uh the models and the number of watches they produce per year or at that range on the higher end five percent we're looking at between 526 to 3 000 nautiluses per year and the nautilus 5711 was produced for 10 years before it was discontinued now the watch is discontinued so we're looking at something like 5200 to 30 000 pieces total of the 57 11 1a probably to be in existence now i know this is a big range here but this is what we have and i think on either end of the range it's either the same it's the same argument really but it just gets a little bit more extreme depending on where we are in the range and where we feel in terms of how many 57 lens were actually produced in that range so when you factor in that there's 300 we're just looking at the 5711s that are available online 300 somewhere between one and six percent roughly of all the 5711 1a's that were ever produced are available for sale online now this makes me personally scratch my head a little bit and i believe now i'll let you comment in the comments below and chime in as well i want to give you that that that ability and opportunity as well do you think one to six percent of the entire market of a watch that's really made for the casual buyer for sale at any given time can we really consider that a shortage now the watches are out there for you know several more than several times the retail price depending on condition and providence and box papers all of that but can we really think that one to six percent of the entire product ever made available for sale today is a shortage in my opinion no it just means you have to pay what people are asking for right i'm not saying anything about the demand because people want the watch but just because people want the watch they still have to be willing to purchase it and when we see hundreds of them available at my fingertips i could buy i could buy six per you know if if i was able to i could buy six percent of all 57 11 1a's that patek philippe ever produced right now today wire transfer but potentially even credit cards on chrono 24 in my opinion i just don't see that as really a shortage it just means you have to pay more you know people are putting these up trying to get more money for it but something we do need to keep in mind and the distinction is here just because someone is asking does not mean they are receiving until they do receive they do make the sale and they do complete the sale now this is just 57-11 and we have to consider that patek philippe once again 60 000 watches per year so you know i think it's easier to make the argument there on that end for someone to say that there is a shortage just because there are much less out there and let's face it 57 11 1a setting aside a couple of richard mills is probably the hottest watch in existence today in terms of modern watches it is discontinued but still modern watch almost within production recent times now we can also look at the 116 500 the ceramic bezel rolex daytona will lump in both of the dial variations the black and the white once again have my laptop here there are 713 available online for sale and that's just looking at chrono 24 at the time of the shooting there are other places where this watch is available we could we could go up even more but you know using a similar you know way that i calculated the math previously if you could buy the watch at your fingertips from pretty much anyone at the market price personally in my opinion i just don't think that that's really a shortage in my head a shortage would be something like there is a component that's scaling back the building of something right think of homes they can't build enough homes to keep up with people that need a place to live because there might be the lumber that's not able to be imported or things like that where truly you just couldn't buy a home in a certain market think of maybe some hot neighborhood i'm not a real estate guy but let's say i don't know some place out in la or new york there's just not more land right so if you want to live in a neighborhood you just can't buy a home because they're just not on the market whereas in this situation that we have here they're all on the market the market has dictated the price of what people are willing to accept today for the watch hundreds of them available upwards of six percent of the market when we're talking about 57-11 how i just in my in my mind if i can buy it today hundreds of them six percent of the market or a little bit less than that in terms of the daytona's because they produce more watches million watches per year who knows what percentage is rolex i just don't see that as a shortage do you let me know in the comments below once again this is in no way a jab or anything like that this is just a different way that i personally think about it as someone that trades watches and you know when you get into some of the watches that we trade some of these watches are produced in low numbers right get into the deforest get into some of the more vintage watches that are truly produced in limited small quantities you start thinking about what percentage of the market could you own or might you want to own so this is really my thought process it's in no way saying other people are wrong but really i would like to hear your opinions because you guys are the people that are posting them on chrono24 you are the ones that maybe get on the waitlist you're the ones that are buying the watches along with myself as a fellow watch geek but i always like hearing what everyone has to say and engaging in this kind of discourse and additionally you know if you do watch the video i want to comment about international rolex authorized dealers and how that works i'll share a story recently i have a friend who is in south america he's from south america he went into an authorized dealer that he actually had a really great relationship with through his family and through connections right so he's getting the best experience already walking in through the gate walking in through the door and he comes to tell me and this is something i already knew but i'm just kind of putting this in a story format for you he tells me oh they have all these rolex watches in stock sports models and so we go on to talk and it turns out you know even though he had family friends and connections they're offering the watches at what would be the market price that you would see on chrono 24 not the suggested retail price now certain countries have different tax and vat and luxury tax and things along those lines but nonetheless the authorized dealers in some countries can really get away with this and this is not something that rolex is going to like walk through the door because business is done in different places different ways it doesn't matter if you're rolex it doesn't matter if you were the government there it doesn't matter if you were the central bank in that country there's different standards ethics and practices in different places of the world depending on belief systems the history and a multitude of other factors right i'm not an economist but but you get the idea here is that just because a watch comes from an authorized dealer doesn't necessarily mean it has to come at that price and following that train of thought let's talk about the watch boxes that are connected to authorized dealers like govberg let's talk about the bucurers let's talk about the tornos where they're both heavily invested and pre-owned and new imagine you walk into a uh a torno i mean now to be renamed but let's pretend you had walked into a torno previously and you bought a rolex daytona for whatever it was at the time let's say 14 000 flat they gave you a deal they liked you a lot well you didn't like it the next day you walked it and you traded it in as pre-owned with the stickers off and maybe a little hairline scratch somewhere on the clasp a little diving mark and then you turn it back into them and they pay you more than you paid for it the next day because they're going to turn around and sell it for at that time maybe 1.5 retail but now double retail right double dipping and so there becomes this real gray line now i'm not saying that authorized dealers out there are using proxies or they're intending to use proxies to make more profit margin because for on a lot of these watches there's a bigger margin when you start getting into pre-owned i mean look at look look at what the big players do the price the publicly traded companies look how they're getting into pre-owned the margins are there compared to working with the brands um that's for sure so i'm not saying that they're purposefully using these proxies to kind of pad their pockets but effectively that's what happens right you walk in toward torno you buy the watch you walk into another tournament or you work with a different off a different sales person at the counter you trade it in as pre-owned now you're in a separate segment they can buy it back and sell it for much more they're not they're not even bound to any terms or agreements with the brand they effectively circumvent the whole thing and this is something that rolex commented on a few years ago and they didn't seem to have a problem with pre-owned doing this now do they behind the scenes that is to be told as time unfolds some brands do have a problem and they crack down and they'll even send us little nasty emails at del rey watch by where the way we have so many interesting pieces that we've just taken in on stock but sometimes these brands they try to fight it but the times are changing and the market just is what it is but one thing is for certain is that if you wanted a 5711 1a by patek philippe doesn't matter the dial or you wanted a rolex anything rolex du jour you can buy it you just need to be prepared to pay the market price let me know what you think comments below once again please check out teddy's video i do think that he did a really great job the production is absolutely killer it reminds me of something like a history channel episode really they've they've done a great job so in no way a dig at him just providing some supplementation from my experience in how i view the watch industry as someone that does this every day thanks guys you've been chatting with john p ciao

Channel: John P Watches

Views: 25,550

Keywords: You Can Can Buy A Rolex or Patek Right Now, you can't buy a rolex or patek, watch shortage 2021, The Real Reason No One Can Buy A Rolex or Patek Right Now - A Breakdown of the Shortage 2021, teddy watches, kevin oleary watches, john p watches, john p, rolex watches, patek 5711, nautilus, patek nautilus, investing in watches, hot watches, richard mille, luxury watches, expensive watches, nico watches, pride and pinion, roman sharf, federico talks watches, collecting watches

Id: C-ewNa-FbMI

Length: 17min 17sec (1037 seconds)

Published: Fri Oct 08 2021