World Renowned Historian predicts outcome of 2024 US Presidential Election | #Breakfast

good morning thanks for tuning in to us on money FM 89.3 this morning I'm Lyn Lee welcome to morning shot now U.S President Joe Biden has announced his campaign for the 2024 re-election what we're seeing could bring a repeat of the 2020 presidential race when he squared off against former president Donald Trump the 80 year old Biden is sitting on a campaign journey to convince the American electorate that his record merits another four years in the White House and that his age will not impede his ability to govern though at this point it's still not entirely clear if he will be up against Trump who has become the first former U.S president to be criminally indicted to help us make sense of how all of this these pieces fit together you're very fortunate to have with us Dr Alan Lichtman distinguished professor in history at the American University the world-renowned historian who has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential race since Ronald Reagan's re-election victory in 1984 using his 13 Keys system very good day to you Prof thank you good to be with you no let's get on to it in his three election bid Biden says that the battle for the nation's Soul isn't complete what exactly is he trying to achieve there yeah he is playing off the same message that he's successfully used in the midterm elections of 2022 usually the party holding the White House the Democrats take big losses in midterm elections that didn't happen this time Democrats actually picked up a senate seat and Republicans did not have their big red wave in the house they barely got a U.S House Majority and he was stressing then as he's stressing now that American democracy is on the ballot that Republicans pose a clear and present danger to the survival of our democracy as demonstrated by the January 6th Insurrection that tried to stop the peaceful transfer of power the counting of the Electoral College votes for Joe Biden and he's generally saying Republicans are too extreme harping also on the very important issue of abortion rights the great majority of American people support abortion rights but of course uh Republican appointees on the Supreme Court overturned the Roe versus way decision on abortion rights and Republicans Across the Nation are trying to crack down on abortion rights and Biden is trying to exploit that issue as well but there seems to be little enthusiasm for another Biden run amid concerns about his age how do you think the age Factor will play out in the upcoming election well unless it manifests itself with some significant uh health problems it shouldn't be a big issue we've seen this picture before when Ronald Reagan was up for reelection in 1984 he was in his 70s wasn't as old as Biden but age was very different back in the 80s than it is today and there was a lot of talk that he was too old that he was slipping and in fact Reagan went on to win one of the biggest landslides in 1984 in the history of the country and as you know you've indicated I have my 13 keys to the White House prediction system which turns not on the characteristics of the candidates but on the strength and performance of The White House Party and that's what's going to count in this section and I can talk about uh where the keys stand at the moment tell us more okay now for all the lack of enthusiasm for Biden in fact based on the keys to the White House Biden gives the Democrats their best chance to win the way the system works is of six Keys turn against the White House Party the Democrats they're predicted losers but by Biden running he secures two of my 13 keys for the Democrats the sitting president key he's the incumbent and the party contest key since he's not going to be seriously challenged for the nomination that means six other keys of the remaining 11 would have to turn to predict the Democrats defeat but if Biden didn't run then the Democrats obviously lose the incumbency key it would be an open seat which is very bad for the incumbent party and they'd have a big party battle because there's no error apparent so they'd lose two keys and they'd only need four more negative keys to predict their defeat so forget the polls forget the pundits look to the big picture of how elections really work in America cup I'm going to come back to those keys in a bit but uh the president's tenure in office so far has been marked by key triumphs for his colossal policy agenda but also struggles on many fronts like border policy issues revolving covet and Supply chains how would you assess his performance so far and will we see him move towards a you know maybe more populist policies to shore up support from the people well Biden really hasn't gotten credit for a lot of a policy achievements he has achieved a greater record in domestic policy than any president since the 1960s you got the big stimulus bill that may have saved the economy from collapse you have a bill to repair our infrastructure something Donald Trump had talked about a lot but never achieved you had bills to deal with veterans injured by toxic burn pits you had a bill to stimulate the chip industry you had a bill to rewrite the Electoral count act which had almost failed in 2020 you got some gun legislation and you had the big Bill on climate change and taxes and in foreign policy it was Biden and Biden alone not Merkel in Germany or macron in France or anyone else who really built the Coalition of the West to blunt the attack by Russia on Ukraine without Biden's leadership Russia May well have have overtaken all or most of Ukraine so in terms of solid accomplishments they're pretty strong but Democrats haven't really messaged that very well and the media hasn't given Biden the credit I think he deserves now this return to Global agreements in reinforcing Partnerships with allies who had been jilted by his predecessor how well has this been received from his electorate yeah but you know our International relationships were in disarray during the Trump Administration you know he had attacked and disparaged NATO he had talked about an America First policy which would not depend upon cooperation with our allies but Biden's policies in Ukraine has greatly strengthened NATO and greatly enhanced America's standing with our crucial European allies and in Asia as you know he's taken a very strong stand against potential uh Chinese aggression against Taiwan this is a very scary situation who knows what China might do but if they invaded Taiwan uh because of the strong stand the Biden Administration has taken that could pit the United States against China Biden is already for the first time stationed a nucleus submarines off the coast of South Korea very strong message to the Chinese to deter them from acting aggressively let's talk about Trump now How likely is he to continue his 2024 campaign run given that he's currently on trial you know Trump seems to be impervious to anything that happens to him impeachments indictments and accidentality tape which shows him bragging about sexually assaulting women because he is a star and he's way ahead in the polls in the Republican nomination and is likely to succeed in winning the nomination but there are huge problems he's already been criminally indicted in New York he right now is undergoing a civil case by journalist aging Carroll who claims he raped her in the 1990s he has a big civil case scheduled this year in New York which seeks to dismantle the Trump organization and he could well be indicted by the justice department both for inciting and Insurrection and for mishandling National Security information and he could be indicted by the district attorney in Atlanta for tampering with the Georgia election so we could have the ultimately extraordinary situation of a Presidential nominee of a major party this is indicted perhaps connected to felonies constitutionally bought him for running but that might you know really cause the Republicans to pause and it's conceivable that the Republican National Committee might remove him from the nomination because he has too much baggage and I think that's what his Rivals like to Sanders and Mike Pence and Nikki Haley are counting on they're not going to beat Trump straight up for the nomination of trump hops to step down then all bets are off now coming back to your 13 Keys system you're well known for accurately predicting every U.S president since 1984 I know you've mentioned a few Keys earlier but could you break it down for us what's covered under those 13 keys and how did you arrive at the number 13. well I arrived at the number 13 not by Magic but by studying every American presidential election from 1860 to 1980. I developed the system in 1981 and I've used a mathematical modeling to see what factors in the political environment were associated with incumbent party victories and defeats and the mathematical modeling turned up 13 Keys which were best able to make those retrospective predictions you've got to base your model on the past and those 13 Keys as you mentioned have been successful since 1984 and the decision rule is a simple one if six of the keys go against the White House Party they're predicted losers and they're things like incumbency third parties internal uh battles for the nomination of the White House Party short and long-term economy foreign policies successes and failures policy change Scandal social unrest they tap into the fundamentals that actually decide elections not to polls and punditry which have no predictive value whatsoever so just to put you on the spot right here if it turns out that uh you know it's going to be a Biden and Trump rematch in 2024 who's likely to emerge Victorious well it's a very different rematch because this time Biden is the sitting president and Trump is the Challenger last time Trump was the sitting president and Biden was the Challenger and I predicted a Biden win not because of Biden but because of the failures of the Trump Administration so this election will turn on the governance and the success of the Biden Administration it's too early to make a prediction uh except to say Biden gives them the best chance of winning because so many keys are fluid we don't know where the economy is going over the next 18 months or plus we don't know what's going to happen in foreign policy so those are the two things I would say keep your eye on look at how well the economy is doing and look at successes and failures in foreign affairs that's to determine the outcome of the election it's been a pleasure speaking with you Prof we've been speaking with Dr Alan lichmann distinguished professor in history at the American University he is the world-renowned historian who has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential race since 1984. have a good day Prof thank you and I'm sure I'll talk to you again money FM 89.3

Channel: MONEY FM 89.3

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Length: 13min 18sec (798 seconds)

Published: Fri Apr 28 2023