Why Tesla And Other EV Ranges May Be Inaccurate

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For the last 100 years, the gas burning engine has dominated and with the engine come pollutants. Since 1971, the US Environmental Protection Agency has been testing these vehicles to ensure they comply with federal pollution rules. But electric vehicles made up 8% of all new car sales in the US in 2022, a 55% increase over the previous year. This is the exciting time right. Now here in the lab in the industry. A lot of change going on, a lot of new understanding. We're still kind of the Wild West of these things. The regulatory environment around electric vehicles is still changing pretty fast. Evs don't have tailpipes and they don't emit pollutants. But the government still requires automakers to run specific tests on their electric cars and publish estimates of how far each can drive on a single charge. And the agency tests some of those vehicles itself to ensure the estimates are accurate. The fear of running out of battery called range anxiety is one of the top concerns consumers have about EVs and something keeping many of them from making the switch. The EPA's ratings are considered more accurate for driving on American roads than systems used elsewhere in the world. But the EPA system still has its critics. One report found that EVs fell short of their stated EPA range by more than 12%. They were less accurate than the EPA fuel economy ratings for internal combustion vehicles. In addition, inconsistencies in testing rules can make differences in range among brands seem larger on paper than they are in real life. This issue where a Tesla at with a 405 mile range and a Porsche with a 250 mile range are practically the same number in the real world. So how is EV range determined by the EPA? Why do some say the ranges are not accurate and what can be done about it? CNBC visited the EPA's National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions Lab to find out. We're here in Ann Arbor, Michigan, at EPA's National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions Lab. This is the federal laboratory where all of the auto emissions and fuel economy measurements are made. This car is an electric vehicle, a Chevrolet bolt. It is about to undergo one of the tests the EPA administers to determine its range, how long it can drive on a single charge. We do more than car testing here. We test engines from large 18 wheel trucks. We test non-road equipment that's in agricultural construction. We test little engines and lawnmowers and weed whackers and snow blowers. Most of the time, manufacturers test their own vehicles and report the results to the EPA. It is similar to the approach the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration takes with safety certification. The EPA can test any car, though it often will. If there is a substantial vehicle refresh or update, which typically happens every 3 to 7 years. They provide us with a car that's either pre-production before it goes into production or shortly after a job, one when it's just into production. We actually compare their submitted results with what we get in the lab. Most of the time they match up really good once in a while. They don't. When they don't, then we figure out why. Usually sometimes we have to retest. They have to retest. If their numbers in our numbers don't line up, then they take EPA's number as the official number that's generated in this lab. So total 300 cars a year get tested in the lab. That represents about 15 to 20% of the models that make up the US fleet in any given year. 150 new cars and 150 used ones to see how those are performing throughout their entire life cycle. In addition to enforcing its own rules and providing information to the public, the EPA also passes data generated here on to other agencies. Data goes to the Department of Transportation for corporate average fuel economy or Cafe standards. The average fuel economy an entire automaker's fleet gets. Numbers also go to the IRS for the gas guzzler tax, a charge on all cars that are below a certain mile per gallon rating. Originally there were two tests a city test and a highway test. The city test is typical. A morning drive in Los Angeles is actually where it was built on the drive schedule built on the Los Angeles morning drive in the mid 60s. The highway test, which is more of a suburban test, was actually derived from driving around here in the Ann Arbor area. The EPA added three more tests in 2008 to more closely match real world driving conditions. A test in cold weather at 20°F. A hot weather test with the air conditioner running and an aggressive driving test. All the while, powertrains were changing. The EPA began testing hybrid vehicles once the Toyota Prius debuted in the United States in 2001, it began testing electric vehicles after it finalized rules for those in 2010. It added equipment for charging electric vehicles, for measuring the discharge of electricity from the battery on a battery electric or plug in hybrid. But the dynamometers themselves, the conditioning, the temperature controls, the drive cycles, all of those are the same, with just the addition of the new features for the electrified part of the vehicle. This is how the agency tests an testers first charge the battery and park the car overnight. The following morning it is subjected to a series of tests on rollers called Dynamometers or Dynos. These rollers are meant to simulate at least some of the conditions of driving. For example, engineers can add resistance to simulate wind drag. Someone gets into the driver's seat, the car is hooked up to a machine that measures how much the battery is discharging relative to the speed and distance traveled. There is a city test, a highway test, and a third test known as the steady state test, which consists of running the vehicle at a constant speed until the battery is fully depleted. Then testers charge the battery again and time it. At first, the test was simpler. The standard test was run a city test Pause. Run a city test Pause. Run a city test. Pause from when the battery was fully charged until the car couldn't stay on the drive trace anymore. They ran a highway test the same way as battery capacity has increased, that has become prohibitive. We had to have three shifts of drivers coming in and run these over and over. So we went to a multi cycle tests and those allow us to both combine city and highway and to accelerate that depletion. So now, you know, 8 to 10 or 12 hours we can deplete a battery instead of needing to run those cycles over and over again for 20, 24 or 30 hours. Part of the testing process also involves applying a reduction factor to the numbers A car gets in a test in order to account for real world driving conditions. Lab results are multiplied by a reduction factor of 0.7. Instead of the multi cycle test, automakers can conduct a five cycle test similar to the one used for gasoline vehicles. That version includes the city and highway test, along with tests in hot and cold weather and an aggressive driving test at about 80mph. The EPA does do some real world driving tests for fuel emissions and is developing similar tests for EVs. So we are looking at how the Dynamometer compares to some of the similar travel that we would see out on the road and comparing some of those things. But we also will look at how a battery charging might happen out on the real world. Figuring out how to test for the effects of heating and cooling systems on range, for example, is tough since there are so many different options in any given vehicle for heating or cooling a cabin. So whether it's a heated seat or a heated steering wheel or a cabin heating, all of these can have different effects on range, determining which one is best to represent the way the consumer is going to use that, and then using that to provide additional information on the effects of cold or hot is one of the areas that we're doing work right now in the lab. That complexity is one of the many challenges the EPA faces with EVs. We have a lot of standards already for how combustion vehicles get measured and the kinds of data that they need to report to us in order to do certification and compliance in order to drive on the roads. Those regulations are quite, I have to say, wobble pretty obvious yet, because just the kinds of data that they're generating is just so new. We've had 100 years of of, you know, looking at economy and efficiency and emissions and everything on gasoline cars we've only had at max ten years of it. And I would say not even that really just a few years, maybe 5 to 6 years where it's become important enough that people are focusing on it. It isn't just the novelty, it is also the pace at which everything is happening. It is one of the fastest changing areas that we deal with here in our laboratory. Just in terms of how fast this technology is moving. If you look at a vehicle that we had in here even five years ago, a 2016 or 2017 electric vehicle looks almost completely different to it than what we're seeing with vehicles coming in 2024. So every manufacturer kind of has their own way of reporting data on where the power is coming into and going out of the vehicle, how it's moving around between the motors and the batteries, or if it's doing things like regenerative braking, where the strategies about how power goes to the heating and cooling system. So versus how to take the battery at the right temperature. All this makes it hard to get lab results that match real world driving. I think that with our with the addition of the more aggressive cycle and the mid 90s, I think people are seeing that our fuel economy is much closer to what you would see from the values on the label versus what they're seeing on the road with EV. It's a newer area, right? Car and Driver magazine tested a 2018 model three in cold conditions and found it got only 65% of its stated range. Triple A tested electric trucks under loads and found they lost 25% of their EPA range. Edmonds, a site that provides information on cars, found that many EVs achieved ranges in their tests that were quite different from EPA ratings. Some were quite extreme. A Porsche Taycan has an EPA estimate of 203 miles on a single charge, but achieved 323 miles of range on a charge in Edmunds tests. A paper published by the Society of Automotive Engineers in April 2023 leveled several criticisms on how EV range is tested. Among other things, the paper said the EPA published only one total range number for each vehicle, rather than separating range ratings for city and highway driving, as it does for fuel burning vehicles. That total range number is weighted in favor of city driving over highway. That is a problem, the authors said. The paper drew on testing data gathered by Car and Driver magazine. One of the paper's authors, Dave Vanderwerp, is director of vehicle testing at Car and Driver. In gas vehicles. The highway number is almost always better than city. And in EVs it's the reverse. Right? So people aren't seeing that, Oh, the highway is quite a bit worse than city when you just get this one combined number. Evs are often equipped with regenerative braking. That is a mechanism that captures energy from the wheels as the vehicle is slowing down and stores it back in the battery. This gives them an edge in city driving where there is a lot of speeding up, slowing down and stopping. This is precisely where gas powered vehicles are less efficient. Even the EPA highway test involves a lot of speeding up and slowing down, which gives regenerative braking a chance to kick in. Let's say you had 400in the city. And 300 on the highway. That gets combined to something like 340, and that's what shows up on the label. However, I think most people will have range anxiety concerns when they're on the highways. One car and driver test consists of driving a vehicle at a constant 75mph. Most highways in the US have speed limits of 70mph, with a few states allowing as high as 85. Car and driver testing data found that while internal combustion cars actually outperformed their EPA highway ratings by about 4% on average, EVs fell short of their range number by 12.5%. It shows that range can vary wildly depending on how you drive the car. If you're driving in one part of the country under one set of conditions where it's really, really hilly, or if you're driving somewhere else where it's very flat, if you're driving in a place where it's cold or it's really hot, this one number will allow you to compare from model to model, but it might not represent what you'd actually get in all of those different driving cycles. The paper's authors, Pinone and Vanderwerp, even say putting the total range on the Monroney label is not accurate to real world use. No one drives the car down to zero miles. A car might have a stated range of 300 miles, but the vast majority of drivers are likely to recharge before the battery runs too low. Different brands often report very different total ranges on their vehicles. But Pinone and Vanderwerp say the differences might not amount to as much in real life and may be at least partially attributed to the fact that the EPA allows them to use different methods to report the range on their cars. Either the Multi-cycle test made up of a city and highway test or a five cycle test that incorporates hot weather, cold weather and aggressive driving. About 28% of gas burning vehicles use the five cycle test, but about 50% of EVs do. Why is that? Because it's beneficial tip In the gas world, the five cycle was generally deemed as not beneficial. So the automakers kind of stayed away from it if they could, because a lot of times come up with a worse number. But Pinone and Vanderwerp say it can give an EV a higher EPA range number than the standard multi cycle test with its 0.7 reduction factor. Their paper recommends, among other things, that the EPA publish both city and highway range apply a single multiplier close to 0.6 to get testing closer to real world circumstances and make every automaker run the same tests. I think the range testing right now is relatively stable. It's pretty representative. It's not obvious that there's streamlining that can be done that would significantly reduce the test time that it takes to run these tests and still get representative numbers. But that work is being examined and studied at by different manufacturers and by some independent labs. The EPA said the Range and fuel Economy section of the Monroney sticker hasn't been updated since 2011, when there were few electric cars and plug in hybrids. At the time, the decision was made to combine the city and highway results to keep it simple for consumers. But the agency is continuing to evaluate the procedures and methods used for determining EV range and labeling, as it has done for gas vehicles throughout its history. It is revising the cold test, for example, for the 2025 model year based on Tesla's 2023 results. The EPA estimates that for the Tesla Model Y performance, the new range estimate would theoretically decrease from 303 miles to 289 miles due to changes in the cold test, It said it is reviewing the recent SAE paper, but that it would be premature for us to comment on any specific ideas or observations. Automakers have a long history of pushing against regulations, trying to find loopholes and sometimes just lying and defrauding the public. The Dieselgate scandal is perhaps the most recent infamous example of this. A number of automakers, but most notoriously Volkswagen, were caught using devices intended to cheat on EPA emissions tests. The scandal rocked VW, currently the world's second largest automaker, leading to billions in fines and payouts and jail sentences for top executives. It also precipitated the German carmakers dramatic pivot toward electric vehicles and helped fund VW nearly $2.5 billion Electrify America Charging Infrastructure Project. The scandal also shaped the EPA. They simply don't have the resources to to look hard at electric vehicles. In fact, they are still reeling from the Dieselgate and and trying to ensure that that, you know, from an emissions standpoint that we're doing the right thing for the environment and can 100% appreciate that. Right. Electric vehicles really are not bad for the environment in the same way that gasoline powered vehicles are. There are still concerns consumers need to be protected. If automakers have been sort of allowed to stretch the regulations further than maybe they should. Getting that back in the bag is going to be coming increasingly harder. And now with the governmental push towards EVs. It's time to. It's time to make sure that. That it's right. Every test we do for is just a little bit more standing on the whole all of what can what your was do, what might they do in the future and what what should we look out for when the next vehicle comes it. We're consumers as well and you know, scientists and engineers looking at this stuff. So it's really important for us to look at what might those issues be and how do we apply it and how do we test for those things as well.
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Channel: CNBC
Views: 212,821
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Keywords: CNBC, CNBC original, business, business news, finance, financial news, tech, technology news, technology, stocks, money, electric vehicles, EVs, EPA, EV testing, longest range EVs, Tesla, vehicles, driving, EV range, testing, range testing, electric power, charging, Environmental protection agency, EV technology, consumers, retail, EPA tests
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Length: 18min 19sec (1099 seconds)
Published: Sat Jul 22 2023
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