Ever since the fall of the Soviet Union, the
United States has been the only true worldwide superpower. The modern world is full of potential superpowers,
like China and India, but in the 80’s people widely thought that a different country was
destined for world superpower status: Japan. Within only a few decades, Japan went from
utter devastation to becoming the second largest economy in the world, and were projected to
become a new economic superpower, on par with the United States… and then it didn’t. Japan fell into a recession, and now no one
even entertains the idea of Japan rivaling the US, or China. But the real impressive story is how Japan
rose to become a major world power in only a few decades… twice. So why did people think Japan was destined
to be the next world superpower, why didn’t it, and how did it get from this to this in
such a short time? [This video was brought to you by Fabulous] In the 1630’s, Japan’s Tokugawa shogunate
issued a series of decrees that completely closed the country off from the outside world. No one could enter Japan and no Japanese citizen
could leave for over 200 years. This period of isolation would become known
as Sakoku (鎖国), or “locked country”, and it came as a sudden change of character
to a Japan that had previously sent traders and embassies across East and Southeast Asia. One common explanation for these decisions
was the continuing encroachment of foreign powers and the gradual spread of Catholicism,
which the Edo-based government saw as a potential threat, and possibly a pretext for a Spanish
or Portuguese invasion. And so, locked. This theory however has been challenged by
modern historians, and in fact the narrative of Japan being completely isolated from the
rest of the world for two centuries isn’t completely true either. In addition to a small Dutch factory on the
island of Dejima in Nagasaki’s harbor, Japan also maintained a strong trading relationship
with China, though mostly restricted to the island of Kyūshū. Nonetheless, while Shoguns like Tokugawa Yoshimume
encouraged the so-called “Dutch studies”, this would be Japan’s only formal contact
with the Western world as the Western world itself went through a series of dramatic changes. The United States of the 1850’s was one
that had started to exert its might as an independent power, mostly by stealing a crap-ton
of land from Mexico and beginning to grow its power in the Pacific. In 1853, when Commodore Matthew Perry and
his four black, steam-powered ships arrived in Japan, bearing a message from President
Fillmore, they became the first non-Dutch westerners to be allowed into the country
since it was closed. This was not the first attempted expedition
to Japan from a foreign power, but it was the first successful one, being granted a
meeting with the bakufu, or the Shogun’s court, which they assumed was the imperial
court. It actually wasn’t, the actual Emperor was
over in Kyoto while the Shogun held the real power. Reportedly the court organized a sumo match
in a display of pure Japanese strength and machismo, an event the American delegates
found laughable. The Americans in turn assembled a small railway
with a quarter-scale locomotive, showing the technological superiority of the Western world,
with Japan having missed out on the Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolution. The Tokugawa government was forced to sign
the Convention of Kanagawa, ending its period of isolation. Four years later in 1858, Japan also signed
the Harris Treaty, which– along with similar treaties with the British, Dutch, and French–
mandated Japan open certain ports to foreign trade, and gave extraterritorial rights to
any of their citizens in Japan, meaning citizens of these countries did not have to follow
Japanese laws while in Japan. American: You’re kidding?! You mean I still have to wait three more years
to drink sake? Dutchman: You know the drinking age in America
won’t be raised to 21 for another 130 years, right? American: Shut up, Dutchie, I bet you dip
your fries in mayonnaise! Without a shot being fired, Japan ended up
in a similar position to China after the recent Opium Wars, forced to sign asymmetrical treaties
purportedly on the basis that Japan was a non-industrial, non-constitutional, non-modern
power. Japan referred to these treaties as the ‘Unequal
Treaties’ and they sought to end bring an end to this humiliating status quo. The Meiji Restoration of 1868 was a dramatic
shift in power that saw the Japanese Emperor once again overthrow the Shogun as the true
leader of Japan. Unlike previous revolutions of this kind however,
this came with a series of reforms so significant it actually affected the average person. Most Japanese power shifts of this sort didn’t
affect the average person all that much, though the Meiji Restoration (named for the Emperor
in question) had much more drastic effects on Japan. The government enacted the Charter Oath (or
Five-Article Oath) with five pledges: 1) to establish deliberative assemblies in order
to involve the public in decision-making; 2) to involve all levels of society in the
affairs of the state; 3) to abolish restrictions on the occupation and function for all people;
4) to abandon the superstitions of the past and embrace rational laws of the future; and
5) to seek knowledge from around the world to strengthen Japan. Japan reorganized its government with a formal
constitution, sent envoys around the world, and grew its army to a truly massive size. Eager to establish itself as a true world
power, Japan set its sights outside, first on the Ainu and the Ryukyu Kingdom, then Korea
and Taiwan, and then into a now much weaker Qing Empire. However another power also had plans for Korea
and Manchuria: Russia. Russia had been expanding into Manchuria and
had leased out Port Arthur on the Liaodong Peninsula, just west of Korea. The 19-month Russo-Japanese War resulted in
a victory for Japan, the first time a European colonial power was defeated by an East Asian
power, with Russia forced to abandon its expansion efforts in East Asia. Through a world war, a big-time sad, and now
allied with the worst regime to ever exist, Japan continued to grow even further, into
much of China, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific. Japan spread across the Asia-Pacific region,
committing unspeakable atrocities in their wake across China, Korea, and Southeast Asia. Their aggression however eventually resulted
in the United States joining the war, and once Germany and Italy had capitulated, Japan
was left on its own, refusing to surrender until… When the dust had settled and Emperor Hirohito
declared via radio that “the war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan’s
advantage” (which is a huge freaking euphemism if I’ve ever heard one), reactions among
the ordinary folk were mixed. Many were either ashamed at Japan’s loss
of the war, fearful of what the Americans might do to the country and the people, or
even hopeful of what could be a change for the better. In part of his speech, Hirohito called on
the Japanese people to endure the changes that would inevitably follow. Japan was virtually left in ruins by the war. Cities had been destroyed, hundreds of thousands
killed, and the Empire disbanded. Japan was put under military occupation under
the Allied powers, with the responsibility of reconstructing Japan largely falling to
American General Douglas MacArthur as the Supreme Commander of the Allied Powers (or
SCAP). Officially this occupation was under the multinational
Far Eastern Advisory Council, though in practice it ended up a mostly American-run operation. In MacArthur‘s mind, the problem lie mainly
in Japan’s overcentralization, militarism, and fascism, and as such his agenda focused
primarily on increasing democracy and demilitarizing the country. The title of Emperor was kept in place, albeit
in a much more limited fashion. This seemed to many– both at the time and
ever since– like a terrible idea, however the goal with this decision was to keep a
sense of continuity, and to prevent the people from turning against the occupation. While the Emperor was made to publicly renounce
his divinity, MacArthur received strong criticism for keeping him out of the Tokyo Trials, which
saw many of the wartime government’s top leaders tried and sentenced. The military was also disbanded– which required
around 7 million former soldiers be brought home– as was the Special Higher Police,
the so-called thought police of the wartime government. As many as 200,000 government officials and
businessmen were removed from their posts, in an attempt to transition Japan away from
its fascist administration. MacArthur also wished to dissolve the zaibatsu
conglomerates– companies which had notable influence over the imperial economy– convinced
they had operated the wartime economies of Japan’s colonies, but this wasn’t completely
successful. Often those zaibatsu that were dissolved simply
reformed around the banks that replaced them, now known as keiretsu, including the likes
of Fuji, Mitsui, Mitsubishi, Nissan, and Sumitomo. In October, 1945, MacArthur tasked legal scholar
Matsumoto Joji with assembling a committee to re-write a new constitution for Japan,
preferably before the first meeting of the Allied Council on Japan in December, because
the Soviets will be there too. Matsumoto’s committee however concluded
that the Emperor should keep his sovereignty over the country (and just not exercise this
power too much), which MacArthur found unacceptable and asked Major General Whitney to draft a
more appropriate document. They then presented their draft to the Japanese
authorities, who– likely through a miscommunication– adopted and passed it with almost no alterations,
assuming it was meant to be the final draft. Passed by the emperor as essentially an amendment
to the Meiji constitution, the 1947 constitution transferred leadership of the country over
to the people, instead of the emperor, who was to be a merely symbolic figure. It also guaranteed rights to the people based
on the American Bill of Rights, and– most controversially– forbid Japan from developing
any sort of ‘war potential’, basically building an army or a navy that isn’t solely
devoted to Japan’s self-defense. Japan however still needed to reform its image
on the world stage. Possibly the most consequential figure within
the Japanese government at this time was Yoshida Shigeru, who served as Prime Minister on and
off over the first 8 years after the war. The ‘Yoshida Doctrine’ emphasized rebuilding
Japan’s infrastructure and economy, relying on America’s military strength since they
weren’t allowed their own, and emphasizing economic diplomacy on the world stage. An accomplished diplomat and student of diplomatic
history, Yoshida once remarked, “history provides examples of winning by diplomacy
after losing in war”. The Allied administration also allowed the
establishment of political parties, though in practice many of these were rehashing of
older parties, with some exceptions, namely the Japan Socialist Party, which won a modest
18% of the vote in 1946. Then in 1947, the Socialist Party won 28%
of the vote, alarming SCAP and setting forth a dramatic purge of 13,000 accused socialists
from politics and business– even going as far as to reinstate many who had previously
been purged from the wartime government– and ending their campaigns against the zaibatsu
corporations. The administration also went on somewhat of
a union-busting spree, with union membership decreasing from 50% to 25% by the 1960’s. As Japan emerged from the rubble, the new
government invested heavily coal mining, and iron and steel manufacturing, becoming the
second most profitable steel industry in the world by 1959, partly through demand from
the nearby Korean War. This also had the knock on effect of drastically
boosting the shipbuilding and auto manufacturing industries. Japan became the largest shipbuilder in the
world, and– as the average income steadily rose– also became the second-largest car
manufacturer. And with the populace becoming richer, so
too did demand skyrocket for consumer goods. Being under the US’ sphere of influence
and not being allowed to grow its military, Japan never had to spend much on its armed
forces; and having been behind most of the world in technology, it also didn’t have
to spend much on research and development. As the 20th century progressed, Japan’s
economy started to grow to astronomical levels. While Japan’s rapid growth during this time
was far from unique, it was certainly one of the fastest, and many even started to predict
Japan’s rise as the next world superpower. It had a high population, a huge GDP, and
an economy growing so fast that it was projected to overtake the US as the world’s premier
economic superpower… and then it didn’t. An economic bubble started to form in 1986,
as real estate and stock market prices were drastically overinflated. Homes were often so expensive that families
bought out multigenerational loans to pay them back, and according to some reports the
Emperor’s palace– if it could be sold, of course– would’ve been worth as much
as the entire state of California. In 1991 that bubble finally burst and– with
drastic mismanagement from national leadership– caused a recession that would last until 2002. This era is known in Japan as the “lost
decade”, and it was marked by anxieties of Japan’s place in the world. While the recession didn’t result in a Japanese
Great Depression, it did signal the end of the post-war economic miracle, as well as
any realistic aspirations for outperforming the US. As Japan’s growth started to slow, it was
also overtaken by another emerging East Asian superpower, China. While China now seems poised to join the US
in superpower status, the idea of who is and isn’t a world superpower is incredibly vague
at best. Japan however has definitely taken over the
world in another way. Not politically or economically, and certainly
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