Why I'm (completely) Out on Michael Penix Jr.

there are many misconceptions about the combine the draft and the reality of the NFL some guys dominate College put on a show at the combine and sometimes get drafted very highly despite the fact that their strengths will not translate to the next level Michael penck had a fantastic two-year run at Washington finishing his final season with 4900 yard 36 touchdowns a college football playoff final appearance second in the Heisman but the things he excelled at in college are not things that translate to the NFL today we'll take a look at the good in his game cuz obviously he's talented but then dive into why he is not going to work at the next level when popping on the tape his game is all about arm strength and the Deep ball according to Pro Football Focus he threw passes traveling more than 20 yards 21% of the time which was 18th in the nation out of 165 qualifiers and his 17 87 yards on such throws LED everybody across the entire us he loves launching deep bombs to his receivers he's extremely aggressive pushing the ball deep if he sees any kind of one-on-one matchup no matter where it is on the field that is where he's going ROM Odun who will be one of the first three receivers drafted this year was his number one Jaylen poke also went for a band 2200 combined receiving yards between the two of them this year and penx has the arm strength to reach them all over the field some of his greatest plays come up the sidelines where he consistently hits whole shots in between the second and third level of the defense this is an absolutely insane hole shot where typical hs's if we're going to make that a thing are against Zone coverage where there's a corner playing a flat and a twoo high safety who's guarding an entire half there's usually this little hole to throw into but not against man coverage which is what Michigan state is playing plus with the safety leaning pretty far towards the sideline this is not a a normal throw but penx rips an absolute laser into what I guess is the hole you can see him holding his eyes up the middle of the field to keep that safety towards the middle as much as possible then at the very last second he fires this thing into the perfect spots and look at the location his whole shot highlight reel could go up against any quarterback that's come out in the last decade he has perfect timing pacing arm strength to be able to rip the cover three whole shots which I have never seen in my my life cover three has an underneath Defender not playing as close as the cover two Defender but then three deep Defenders so there's a corner much closer to the whole area than in cover two making it non-existent however once the cornerback overlaps to the seam which is typically the only vertical route in this type of concept pennx manufactures an HS and throws it perfectly since Washington runs this air raid spread amount vertical system they have a cool wrinkle to this concept this is hos juice Juke which we talked about after the Super Bowl where you have two curls outside two seams inside and a Juke route match against a linebacker if the curl flat Defender guards the curl he's toast and the cornerback knows to overlap to the seam so the huskys add a wrinkle I've never seen in hos Juke where they put the curls on double moves just to take advantage of Pen's Big Time arm strength however that arm strength is flashy it's what looks good on the highlight reels the combine could get him drafted higher than he should but to be honest it's Fool's Gold yes his arm strength is legit but he is not consistently accurate he relies on the Deep ball too much and he doesn't do the little things to make him an overall quality Prospect his inaccuracy on these passes often gets bailed out by his Elite receiver in Odun whose best attribute is winning deep balls one-on-one penx doesn't display an advanced ability to put these balls out in front of his receivers doesn't always understand where to throw the ball let alone how to throw it to the correct spot as we'll see more of he throws a ton of iso balls outside where the huskys just put Odun outside and let him work here he's getting soft man coverage where Domani Jackson doesn't press him but mirrors him as best he can without touching Odun early in the down this helps him maintain a cushion on him so right now when penx is gearing up to throw there's really nowhere to beat Jackson over the top he's in good position a half step deeper he's basically stacked Odun then has back shoulder outside closer to the sideline written all over it throw it here to let Odun use his giant frame to adjust to it but instead penx throws it across Jackson's body out in front and he's lucky his guy makes a spectacular catch on a lot of these big time completions that helped him lead the nation he was really getting bailed out by his receivers and without good ball placement and accuracy arm strength doesn't really matter by by itself at the next level here Utah is sending the house so they have no deep safeties Odun is one-on-one and despite the all up blits it's all blocked up so penx has time but this ball needs to be out in front and deep for Odun to run under but penx lets the cornerback come into the play and luckily Odun is the guy getting targeted speaking of the blitz penx is notorious for resorting to the Deep ball when he's getting extra heat his average dep of Target jumps five yards to 15 half every time he's pressured that's 12th out of 165 qualifiers and he's always looking for his one-on-ones outside to bail him out instead of going through his reads hero dun is matched one-on-one outside and penx has this Crossing route against super soft man coverage USC blitzes the house so there's nobody in the middle of the field but penx is trying to get to his ISO curl outside so instead of progressing to the open Crosser he Wild L throws deep you'll see him struggle to read the field when pressured cuz he speeds up his process hence the wild deep throws and he'll also speed up his footwork which affects his accuracy first off he could hit the China route underneath for a first down on second and four but when we look at his footwork and mechanics too often he's throwing from the seat of his pants where his momentum is falling backwards as he's throwing which causes the ball to sail if you're throwing off your back foot instead of from a neutral plane like you should be you can't dve D the ball through your Target because your backside is locking out this leads to his struggles layering the ball meaning instead of throwing fast balls all the time there's times where you need to touch a ball over a linebacker's head in zone to lead a receiver into an open window or float a deep ball over a Corner's head in man coverage penx doesn't have that second Pitch which is a red flag this is where arm Talent comes into play people have asked me before what exactly it means penx has a ton of arm strength but arm Talent is making every throw and changing up your speed your ability to throw the ball in a variety of ways that is one thing that we don't see on his film his footwork mechanics and overreliance on the Deep ball have messed with his development as well where in times of duress he'll just panic and throw deep first of all I'm not sure what the huskys progression is here it should be Drive first with the shallow to the dig to the double move up the seam you want to go shorter routes to longer routes as the play develops but penx starts to the double move up the seam side looking at Odun match oneon-one like he always does and it derails the execution of this concept Drive is a shallow cross that is either open or pulls the coverage with it to open up the Dig NFL concepts are designed to stretch out the defense and create Windows but if you're just trying to throw to your best receiver on the perimeter every single play one you won't always have a Romo dun and two you're not really playing quarterback you're just kind of playing seven on seven you can see he starts to his left to Odun then comes back late to the shallow which Now isn't open doesn't throw the Dig locks out his backside so throws off his back foot and air mails the once open route when playing instructure when pressured with a condensed pocket when doing NFL things penx just doesn't do any of it enough to show that he's capable at the next level whether it's throwing a covered bomb instead of just hitting a check down underneath that is wide open whether it's ignoring the mesh concept over the middle that's frequently a play that's open instead just throwing the bomb outside struggling to know where to go with the ball like throwing a hospital ball into the flats or just over relying on these ISO balls which has limited his development and throwing over the middle there are too many red flags on his film that his exceptional arm strength can't overcome for a guy who doesn't have great extend the playability he needs to be a quarterback who rip RS you up from the pocket and distributes the football the old quote unquote point guard but right now I don't see that on his tape here he sees the safety coming down with the blitz so he tries to get rid of the ball this is the right idea this is his hot receiver but he doesn't look comfortable this is the stuff we need to see him hit repeatedly but he's not that distributor type of quarterback you have have to be if you're going to almost exclusively win from inside the pocket sure there are some incredible freaking throws where he demonstrates rare arm strength and at times good accuracy but ISO balls to Elite receivers against College cornerbacks is not the primary thing you can put on film to prove you will excel in the NFL I'm sure his arm will light Twitter on fire whenever he throws at the combine and his private workout but the underwear Olympics is not football roughly 65% of NFL throws happen from 0 to 10 yards down the field that is what the game is all about if penx can jump into a time machine and be planted onto the 2013 Chicago Bears with the Twin Towers Alshon Jeffrey and B Marsh massive tall dudes with huge wingspans who could jump you out of the gym so you don't have to be too accurate definitely helps when you'll Target them one-on-one over and over too then we could be cooking with gas but that is not realistic I hope penx proves me wrong I don't want to be right that he won't succeed but what we've seen on filmed today well that doesn't lie Michael penx is a great quarterback just at the college level and so if you're watching this please Mr Michael P X prove me [Music] wrong

Channel: AlexRollinsNFL

Views: 114,805

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Id: laYM20r46jA

Length: 10min 56sec (656 seconds)

Published: Sat Mar 02 2024