For not being a country, Somaliland
looks an awful lot like a country. To visit this… place twice the size
of Portugal on the Horn of Africa, you apply for a Somaliland visa. To buy a mango or a cup of coffee,
you pay with Somaliland Shillings. It has its own flag. Its own president, laws, license plate, passport,
police, and even military. The only thing it doesn’t have is recognition. While the world is divided on the
status of Taiwan, China, Israel, Palestine, and North Korea, it’s in complete
agreement about Somaliland: it doesn’t exist. Companies don’t delicately tiptoe around it with
euphemisms like the “region” of Taiwan. They don’t refer vaguely to a complex “issue” or delicate
“situation”. And you won’t find it on any map. All 193 members of the UN are absolutely,
100% certain that this is just… Somalia. Ironically, if Somaliland is the
most country-like non-country, Somali-a, which is widely recognized, is
perhaps the least country-like country. It ranks number one on the Fragile
States Index — higher than North Korea, Afghanistan, or war-torn Yemen. The government struggles to maintain control
over even the capital. Outside Mogadishu, it’s the lawless open ocean. If a given
town hasn’t been captured by militants, it might be occupied by a rival clan,
or some good old-fashioned pirates. In fact, Somaliland isn’t the only self-governing
region. Another roughly third of the area claimed by Somalia also elects its own president
— although it doesn’t assert independence. In other words, the Somali national government
isn’t just deeply dysfunctional. It barely exists. And what little control it has over its territory, it owes to the near-constant
presence of UN peacekeepers. Unsurprisingly, the country sits at the bottom
of nearly every international benchmark. It has the sixth-lowest life expectancy,
the second-highest infant mortality, and a shocking 8% primary school enrollment rate. When Somalia isn’t at the bottom, it’s usually
because the data couldn’t safely be collected. Then there’s Somaliland — only
miles away, yet worlds apart. For the past thirty years, while violence,
famine, and anarchy have consumed the South, these six million people have
been going about their lives. They’ve been going to school. Universities have
sprung up and enrollment is steadily rising. They’ve been voting in regular
elections. There’ve been five presidents from three separate parties since 1991. And they’ve been running marathons and
reading books. The capital city hosts an international book fair and women
are allowed to run in the annual race. The streets are safe. Shopping malls have been
built. And refugees flock to, not from here . Now, Somaliland is far from perfect. Like most poor countries, it suffers from
corruption. The current president’s term was extended by two years under
questionable circumstances. And protests recently erupted on its Eastern border. Still, it seems only fair to
compare it to its neighbors. According to Freedom House, Somaliland is the
second-freest state within a 1,500-mile radius. A foreign observer called its
2003 elections “possibly one of the most peaceful… in Africa [in] 20 years” And in 2010, Somaliland became only
the 4th state on the entire continent to experience a peaceful transfer of
power from an incumbent president. More impressively, it accomplished
all this entirely on its own. Without recognition, Somaliland doesn’t
qualify for loans. Most companies refuse to invest. And unlike its neighbors across the
Gulf, it hasn’t been blessed with oil or gas. Everything it has today, it built from nothing. In 1991, Somalia’s dictator reduced the
North to rubble — bombing nearly everything, including the very airport
those planes took off from. After the dust settled and while it remained
littered with landmines, 10,000 survivors slowly rebuilt the city brick-by-brick. Today,
the capital is home to about a million people. Clearly, if any place deserves the
world’s support, it’s Somaliland. Even from a purely strategic perspective,
the United States has a lot to gain. Its adventures in the Middle East have
proven the danger of leaving power vacuums. And unlike Somalia, the Somaliland government patrols its coast for pirates
and prosecutes terrorists. When the U.S. pulled out of Afghanistan, Somaliland offered to host thousands
of refugees fleeing the Taliban. And as countries around the world bow to
Chinese pressure, Somaliland is one of a very small handful of states to maintain
relations and show solidarity with Taiwan. In a region rife with instability, here
lies a relative oasis of peace, democracy, and prosperity. It’s principled,
it’s patient, and it’s pro-Taiwan. Could the U.S. ask for a better ally? Unfortunately, it’s not so simple. As the creator and beneficiary of what it
calls the “rules-based” international order, the United States does everything
in its power to preserve that order. That means, for example, not going rogue
and deciding on its own what is and isn’t a country, and instead, deferring to
large, multilateral organizations. In other words, someone else should decide. And
that someone, in this case, is the African Union. The African Union is a bit like a larger, younger version of the European Union. And
it suffers from many of the same problems. Though its goals may be noble, its actions, ultimately, are only as good as its members
— each of which have their own agenda. Its constitution pledges to
“defend the sovereignty [and] territorial integrity [of its members]”
— a reasonable enough-sounding principle. In practice, however, this means fiercely opposing
any plea for self-determination, no matter how sympathetic. After all, creating a new country
necessarily means splitting apart an existing one. This concern is especially acute in Africa, where, thanks to European imperialism, most borders are
absurdly arbitrary — sometimes deliberately so. There’s perhaps no better example
of this than Somalia itself, which was at one point split into
French, British, and Italian colonies. Over the years, large chunks
of majority Somali areas were absorbed by Ethiopia, Kenya, and Djibouti. Then, what remained in 1960 was
unified into a single “Somalia”. But this too made little sense. Before Europeans arrived, Somalia didn’t exist
as a single, coherent nation. Its vast desert was home to independent nomadic clans. Unification,
therefore, was not so much a return to some lost, pre-European ideal, but rather the creation
of a new and equally arbitrary arrangement. And this absurdity was painfully obvious
from day one. Should this new country, for instance, speak English, as did British
Somalia, or Italian, like the South? The British and Italians each governed their
colonies very differently, which all but guaranteed conflict between North and South in
this new, fragile, and deeply divided country. Needless to say, few countries would
choose to open this “Pandora’s Box” debate about the legitimacy of their borders. As a result, over the last 33 years, just
two new countries have been recognized in Africa — Eritrea in 1993 and South Sudan in 2011. …Both, notably, with permission from
the country they broke away from, whereas Somalia is not so generous. In 2005, Somaliland applied
for membership to the African Union. Nineteen years later, it’s still waiting. It’s now been functionally independent for
longer than it was unified with Somalia. And yet, international recognition feels as
distant a dream today as it did in 1991. That is… until now. Ethiopia is the eleventh-largest country
in the world and the second-largest in Africa. Its population of 126 million is
roughly as big as Russia, Mexico, or Japan. It’s also growing incredibly quickly — faster than any of the ten largest countries
and three times as fast as India. And for the first two decades of this century,
the Ethiopian economy grew at an average rate of 8.8% — on pace with China and about
twice the average in Sub-Saharan Africa. Now, the country remains extremely poor. But its
momentum was unmistakable. Ethiopia, it seemed, was following in China’s footsteps,
soon to become the world’s factory. Then, war brought everything to a standstill. Between 2020 and 22, as many as 600,000 people
were killed in one of the deadliest civil wars in recent history. Millions fled their homes
and entire cities were burned to the ground. But today, relative stability
is returning to Ethiopia. After a long, costly, and incredibly
deadly diversion, a peace agreement was signed in 2022 and Ethiopia is now
ready to resume its economic take-off. In other words, the last thing it
needs is to provoke another conflict. …But there’s something Ethiopia needs
even more — something it considers almost existential — one critical, missing ingredient
to realize its economic potential: the ocean. It’s no secret that, to escape poverty
and, hopefully, one day become rich, Ethiopia must shift from an agricultural
to a manufacturing-based economy. Like China thirty years ago,
it has a boundless supply of cheap labor — labor it can use to
climb the development ‘ladder’. What it desperately needs is some way to
get the fruits of that labor — toys, TVs, and T-shirts — into the hands of wealthy
consumers an ocean away — your Americans, your Australians, your South Koreans. That’s a problem because Ethiopia is stuck in what
its Prime Minister called a “geographic prison”. Looking at a map, it’s as if its neighbors
conspired to deny it access to the sea. About half of its border is within 200 miles
of the ocean — it just never quite touches. And to add insult to injury, Ethiopia did have
a beach before 1993, when Eritrea broke away. Ethiopia is, by far, the most populous of
the world’s 44 landlocked nations — two and a half times larger than second-place Uganda. No other country has so much untapped
labor with nowhere to send it. Now, currently, its exports are
shipped through Djibouti — a tiny country to its East a little smaller than Vermont. But Djibouti is acutely aware
of Ethiopia’s desperation and feels no shame in setting its prices accordingly. It charges a borderline extortionate $1.5 billion
each year for access to its port. This fee alone generates 43% of Djibouti’s GDP and amounts
to 10% of Ethiopia’s entire public budget. This is so profitable that if it distributed
the money evenly, Djibouti could give every one of its citizens $1,400 U.S. Dollars — half
its per capita GDP — each and every year. And, of course, it has the power to disconnect
Ethiopia from the world at any moment. Clearly, not ideal. Now, in theory, Ethiopia could diversify
its options by striking a deal with Eritrea. But it prefers to keep its northern
neighbor weak and isolated. That leaves one other option… Somaliland. Unlike Eritrea, no one is concerned that
Somaliland will grow too powerful. Unlike Somalia, it has a functional government. And unlike
Djibouti, it can be bought relatively cheaply. Ethiopia needs a port and Somaliland
needs recognition. These are the ingredients for a deal. And
that’s exactly what happened. On January 1st, the two leaders signed
a historic agreement. The details are still emerging, but it appears Ethiopia
will get 50 years of access to a 12-mile stretch of coastline in exchange
for shares in its national airline. And, most importantly, recognition.
By becoming the first UN-member to acknowledge its existence, Ethiopia would
be effectively creating a new country. What happens next is anyone’s guess. On one hand, Somalia absolutely despises
this development. As far as it’s concerned, Somaliland is an “inseparable” part of
its territory. By signing this agreement, it argues, Ethiopia is blatantly
violating its sovereignty. On the other, Somalia is in no position
to stop its much larger and stronger neighbor. There’s no question that Ethiopia
would prevail in a head-on confrontation. …But, that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t try. Remember, Somalia is barely holding itself
together as it is. Any move to legitimize Somaliland could open the door to other parts
of the country to follow. Should that happen, the complete disintegration of Somalia
would be only a stone’s throw away. Another, more likely scenario, is that Somalia
collapses from within. If it allows a foreign power — especially Ethiopia — to, in its
words, “steal” part of its territory, militant groups could exploit this weakness
to rally opposition against the government. This potential for instability is the reason why
countries from the United States to Egypt have condemned the deal, even while some may
support Somaliland’s cause in principle. Simply put: there’s no shortage
of ways this could end badly. After all, we need only look less
than two years in the past to see what the Ethiopian government is capable of. The Tigray War remains, even after
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the most deadly war this century. But because
of Russia’s invasion, along with the pandemic, few of us know anything about
this incredibly consequential war. Luckily for you and I, RealLifeLore has
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explaining the war from start to finish. This is just one of about thirty deep-dive
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and Gaza to the Korean peninsula. Modern Conflicts, along with my series
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