Translator: Andy Liu
Reviewer: Denise RQ I think we all agree that it takes longer
to grow up today than it did in the past. That seems like a fairly
uncontroversial statement, and it is backed up by a lot of facts. So in 1960, if we take 1960
as a baseline year, relatively few people got
any education beyond high school, if they even finished high school. And 40% of people
didn't even get that far. In 1960, the median marriage age
was 20 for women and 23 for men. Now it's 27 for women
and 29 for men, and it is still rising. So a lot has changed in the course of the last 50 years
in the lives of young people. So much has changed
in fact, that I propose that it is helpful to think of it
as a new life stage of emerging adulthood in between adolescence
and young adulthood. But why does it take so long
to grow up now, so much longer than in the past? Why is there this new stage
of emerging adulthood? There are four revolutions that took place
in the 1960s and the 1970s that set the stage in many ways
for the society that we know today, including the new life stage
of emerging adulthood. Those four revolutions
are the technology revolution, the sexual revolution, the Women's Movement,
and the Youth Movement. First, the technology revolution. The technology revolution
is not just iPhones and iPads, or even laptops and the Internet. Another huge technology revolution
of the last 50 years has been a transition from a manufacturing economy
to a knowledge economy. We've gotten so good at making
things with machines that we no longer need
so many people to make them. Most of us are also aware of how a lot of jobs in manufacturing
have gone to other countries. But it's not just that. Our manufacturing output
is actually six times greater now than it was in the 1950s. But we are able to do that
with only half as many people. So gone are the days where a young man could walk
in an automobile factory or a steel plant, and make enough money to support
not only himself and his family. The new jobs in the knowledge economy are in information
and technology and services. And all of these require education
beyond high school. Those are where you get the best new jobs
in the knowledge economy. You have to have some kind of education
beyond high school. So now more people get more education
for longer than ever before. And that pushes everything else out because most people
won't get a stable long-term job for several years after
they have finished their education, and most people prefer
to wait for marriage and parenthood until after they have a stable job. The second revolution
is the sexual revolution. The invention of the birth
control pill in 1964, along with other effective methods
of contraception, broke the age-old link between sexuality
and reproduction for the first time. And in turn, the link between sexuality and marriage
became broken for the first time. And so the marriage age
started to go steadily up, even as the age of beginning
first sexual relations went down. And today, most people begin having
sexual relations in their late teens, a decade or more before they enter
marriage and parenthood. And so that changes
what the late teens and 20s are like. Instead of entering the commitments
of marriage and parenthood, people now have this longer spans
of a decade or more when they are making
a break in relationships, and they are not yet committed
to the structure of family life. Number three is the Women's Movement. In 1960, not many people
were going to college, but there were twice as many men as women
who were college students. Today, 58% of undergraduates
are female, only 42% male. And women are also half of the students in med schools, in law schools,
in business schools. That has been truly revolutionary. And that has changed how young women think
about their lives and plan their lives. It's hard for us to even imagine how much pressure there must have been
on a young woman in 1960 to find a man. Because if you didn't, what else were you going to do
with your life? There weren't really hardly
any professions open to you. And so that was
what they were most focused on, not that they can do anything. They, like young men, want to use most of their 20s
for making progress in their education
and then in their career. And that has changed entirely
what the 20s are like for both young men and young women. And finally, the Youth Movement. It used to be that adulthood
was associated with a lot of good things, like social status and authority. Well, it still is to some extent,
but not so much as it used to be. The 60s and the 70s changed that
with the Youth Movement. "I hope I die before I get old." How many of you are old enough
to remember that? Or "Never trust anyone over 30." Those were said somewhat tongue in cheek,
but only somewhat. Those are truths underlying them. Now adulthood and age became diminished, and it became youth that was venerated. And so young people are no longer
in such a hurry to enter adulthood. They preferred to prolong their youth
as long as they could and enjoyed it while it lasted. So together, those
four changes have resulted in this new life stage
of emerging adulthood. It used to be that people set up
the stable structure of an adult life by about age 20, but now it's really true that 30
is the new 20. There's a good reason why that phrase
has become more popular. Because now the transitions
that used to happen around age 20 happen closer to age 30 for most people. Instead of moving from adolescence
to young adulthood, at about age 20, it's the adolescence and then emerging
adulthood for most of the 20s, and then the entrance
into a stable young adulthood follows. Not everybody is delighted to hear about
the new life stage of emerging adulthood. Not everybody is happy that it takes longer
to grow up than it used to. Quite the contrary, a lot of people
are very unhappy about it. And a lot of people think
that the fact that young people enter these transitions of a stable
adulthood later in the past means there must be
something wrong with them. And their parents and grandparents
can't help but look at the progress or lack of it of their children
and grandchildren toward adult life in their 20s
and think, and maybe say, "When I was your age..." Because the timetable has really changed,
but I'd like to challenge you if you think that way today
to try to think about it differently. It doesn't mean there is
something wrong with them. It takes longer to prepare yourself
for the knowledge economy than it did for a manufacturing
economy, first of all. So that's not their fault. They are very intently involved
in preparing themselves for their world and are trying to find a place
in a very complex economy. Secondly, the Women's Movement
has opened up a huge range of opportunities
for young women. But that is not a bad thing. I think few of us would view that
as a negative development. It's a good thing. It's a great thing. And so, having this life stage
of emerging adulthood, allows both young men and young women
to develop their skills for the workplace. There is also that wouldn't most of us make a better choice of a marriage partner at 28, or 29, or 30,
than we would've at 19, or 20, or 21? Wouldn't most of us be a better parent if we begin at 30 or 31,
rather than 20 or 21? I don't think there is
any doubt about that. There is also this. Having the space for emerging adulthood gives young people an unprecedented
and unparalleled period of freedom. It's a time when you can do things you never could do before
when you were a kid, and you really won't be able to do later. So if you have a taste for adventure, if you'd like to see
what it is like to live in a different part of the country
or the world for a while, and maybe do some kind
of service project there, this is the time to do it. If you'd like to take a stab
at a long-shot career, like actor, or musician,
or something else in the arts, this is the time to do it. Because later, it would be
much more difficult when you've made those commitments. Right now, in emerging adulthood,
nobody else really depends on you. That's one of the unique things about it. And eventually, people will depend on you. That will narrow the range
of your choices. During emerging adulthood, you have a rare freedom
and a brief freedom, and you should make the most of it. I'd like to close by saying to the young people
who are emerging adults or about to be: don't let other stampede you
to adulthood before you are ready. Adulthood will still be ready
when you are. And a lot of well-meaning people want you
to get there as soon as possible. But it's not their life. It's your life. And you should remind them
of that if necessary. Adulthood is something
almost everybody enters eventually. And it's a land that once you enter,
you can never really go back. So make the most
of your emerging adulthood freedom while that lasts. Thank you. (Applause)
His analysis of causes makes sense, but I don't buy his rosy conclusions.
It's not our fault that it takes longer, that's true, but that doesn't mean that it's a good thing. The education system could prepare people for the knowledge economy sooner. It doesn't.
There's a lot of collective wishful thinking (and useless Health classes) that goes along with the women's movement. You can't donate eggs past 30. My wife and I are looking into getting pregnant, weighing her current health, potential maternity leave we might be able to set up, and a bunch of other factors, but when we spoke to our OB-GYN, he said, "Yeah, those studies are all real, and those things are all things, but from where I'm sitting, maternal age is the biggest factor. Forget everything else and get pregnant yesterday." Sure, women are more than just baby factories, but millions of years of evolutionary drive aren't gonna stop on a dime for a whole goddamn population. Most people want to have kids, but millennials are set to have the lowest birthrates in history. I really doubt that's Plan A for most of us.
But to start a family, you'd need a stable job, and even if the education system didn't suck and you could start working on your career at 18 instead of 22 or later, you'd still need to change jobs every two years for quite some time before you got to a position that could actually support a family.
And his discussion of "freedom" to live abroad etc. etc. just shows how out of touch his generation is. Nobody does that kind of shit these days without massive parental support. And those people, in spite of dragging all over the world on one pretext or another...are now at least five years ahead of all the rest of us when it comes to being grown up.
Human beings are products. Products with more bells and whistles take longer to develop.