Why China is Running out of Time to Invade Taiwan

AS Global tensions continue to rise in the last couple of years the world has been keeping a careful eye on the South China Sea where there are clear indications that something is on the horizon a remnant of the Chinese Civil War both mainland China and Taiwan currently lay claim to being the true and legitimate Chinese government in fact if war was to ever break out between the two many would consider it little more than a continuation of said Civil War which has essentially been frozen since the Communists took over the mainland and the nationalists retreated to Taiwan Taiwan is obviously the weak of the two militarily speaking and so its greatest interest in the present day is maintaining the status quo where things are tense yes but the island maintains its autonomy and democracy however China has made it very clear that they wish to reunite the two populations at some point in the future even if by force in fact us intelligence recently leaked that Chinese president Xi Jinping has potentially ordered his military to be ready for such an operation by the year 2027 considering the size of China's military in the population of Taiwan this would mean war on a massive scale and every player involved is aware that it could easily spiral into one of the largest and most devastating conflicts of the 21st century for this reason China knows that they can't launch an attack until their chances of Victory are at their highest because if an operation on this scale were to end in Failure China could be looking at a Monumental catastrophe not just militarily but also economically and socially but as we'll discussed today there's a good chance that the window for this Invasion might be closing and that the golden moment might have already passed today we're going to delve into the several factors that are holding China back from starting this historic war and how each of them could keep the Flames away from the cold war in the Pacific now for much of recorded history China has been the most populated Nation on Earth and by quite a large margin at that even today it has nearly double the population of the entire continent of Europe much of this growth was seen between the 19 60s and 2010s during which China's population Rose from around 600 million to a staggering 1.4 billion but for the first time in the modern era China is losing its status as the king of population in fact it's already been dethroned according to the United Nations department of economic and social Affairs the year 2023 saw India finally take the title of most populated country as China's population in the year previous had dropped by an estimated 850,000 people China's declining population stems from its ever shrinking birth rate a statistic that plagues many East Asian Nations and one that has finally caught up with China as a general rule a developed Nation needs an average of 2.1 children from each woman to maintain its population higher than this ratio and your population will increase lower and it's going to start to decrease in 2023 China's fertility rate was estimated at a record low of 1.09 far below the maintenance threshold if it stays this low as it's projected to it could have serious consequences for the nation for starters the overall population will continue to decline but as a side effect of this the median age will also grow older after all it's not just the size of a population that matters but also its structure and its distribution and the place that this distribution is seeing the biggest change is in the working age population cited as between 15 and 49 China's population in this age group peaked around 2010 and is expected to plummet by as much as 40% in the coming decades a figure which does not bode well for both the economy and the military clearly the consequences of declining population don't appear overnight or even in a single year however if the trend of record low birth rates continues it could begin to damage China's industrial might and economic prosperity and these effects are already becoming visible in the year 2000 China had 6.5 working people per retiree by 2010 that number had dropped to 5.4 then by 2020 that number was 3.6 current projections have this number slipping to just 1.7 by 2040 a condition which would put serious strain on the Chinese economy as a whole as less and less young energetic and easily trainable workers arried to fill in the jobs left behind by their retiring Elders to make this vacant job issue even worse youth unemployment is a serious growing problem in China in June of 2023 the unemployment rate of people aged 16 to 24 reached a record 21% a 15% increase in just the last couple of years and there's a good chance that this statistic is going to get even more drastic in 2024 we just won't know about it as the Chinese government announced that they're no longer going to be publishing the data is not a good sign what's unique here though is that the problem for China's youth isn't that there aren't enough jobs but rather it's the nature of those jobs China has been pushing heavily over the last few decades for its population to be University educated with the number of students enrolled in higher education growing from 22 million in 1990 to 380 million in 2021 this is considered a historic success especially for a nation that was so impoverished just decades ago go but the opportunities in the job market have not matched this growth specifically in the service sector service jobs which include things like healthcare management education and more employ nearly half of the nation's entire Workforce but the number of available service jobs has declined in recent years as the Chinese government has begun to shun the sector by instead incentivizing jobs in both Agriculture and Industry which the country desperately needs but young graduates in computer science psychology and business have little interest in working a laborious ious job in a factory no matter how much the government begs them leading to this growing percentage of young people remaining unemployed only compounding the nation's demographic and economic issues so this leads us right into the next factor that is holding China back from an invasion the fragility of their economy China currently has the second highest GDP on the planet with a 2022 estimate of a whopping $17.9 trillion second only to the United States for years it has long been assumed that China's GDP would entirely surpass Americas with the question really boiling down to when not if however recent developments have caused serious doubts on this future and much like their demographics China's economy might be heading downhill for starters the Chinese GDP for 2023 is projected to have dropped to 17.7 trillion a decrease of 200 billion dollar and dipping below the GDP from 2021 and this deceleration is now expected to continue unemployment aside 2023 also saw a huge slump in domestic travel a dropping car sales and a worsening housing crisis the property situation in China is especially dire with banks issuing their lowest number of long-term housing loans in over a decade this is a problem that has been brewing for a few years as housing prices began dropping in 2020 and many real estate companies went bankrupt bankrupt companies stopped building houses unable to complete units that they' already sold leading to many families refusing to pay said more mortgage this has left scores of Apartments unfinished as the developers wait for a change in the market and it's estimated that in total Chinese cities now have as many as 80 million vacant properties often leaving whole neighborhoods looking more like ghost towns this among other issues has led to the housing market freef falling over the last few years as Chinese citizens opt to instead save their money rather than place it in real estate which they no longer view as a trustworthy investment further compounding the issue another aspect of China's economy that has taken a massive hit is their exports world events like the end of the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine have led to Rising rates of inflation in most of the world and Rising inflation directly correlates with decreased consumption as money gets Tighter and is prioritized on Necessities this decrease in global consumption is bad news for the Chinese economy as exports make up around 20% of its economy from 2022 to 2023 exports decreased to both Europe and the United States and it's not clear when they'll recover with exports to the us being the more pessimistic of the two as tensions over microchip production continue to cause problems between the two superpowers it's really impossible to talk about the geopolitical situation with China and Taiwan without mentioning these chips as Taiwan is the world's foremost expert on their production causing much of the world's advanced technology to rely on this island the US has made it a clear priority in the last couple of years to increase their chip making capability in case anything happens to Taiwan they've also taken measures to decrease China's access to them the Biden Administration has passed several policies blocking the export of critical chip making minerals to China and has even convinced other key Nations like the Netherlands and Japan to join in a move which the US refers to as protecting their technology but which China calls a cold war move of containment all this put together paints a highly uncertain picture for China's economy and one that would likely not benefit from a devastating war in fact some analysts believe that a war with Taiwan could be the straw that breaks the economic camels back after all the US has already promised intense sanctions if a conflict were to erupt sanctions which much of the developed world is likely to join in on especially the rest of NATO on the other hands it could be said that a successful annexation of Taiwan would result in complete microchip dominance for China as they would acquire the precious factories in the process but that's anything but guaranteed these delicate factories with such intricate technology could be easily damaged in a war at the very least they could be intentionally sabotaged by the Taiwanese to prevent them from falling into China's hands at the moment it seems that China's economy may be simply too unstable to support such a risky War you can easily draw a parallel here to Japan who for much of the 70s and 80s was believed to have an Unstoppable economy with no slowing down in sight however it did eventually slow down and while the country is still pretty well off the economy has certainly stagnated we may be seeing the same effect happening in China as we speak or in the worst case scenario things are now only going to head downhill if true China's financially opportune moment to attack they've already passed for a moment let's forget about China's economy if their government was certain that their population and finances could support a major war it doesn't change the fact that they still face a herculan task in invading Taiwan now we'll start with the obvious Taiwan is separated from China by about 100 miles or 60 km of water this means an invading force can pretty much forget about starting the assault with armored land Vehicles as everything is going to depend on aerial operations and an unprecedented amphibious Landing this fact alone takes away a chunk of China's military prowess though the military still absolutely dwarfs taiwans overall however they most likely won't be facing just Taiwan in the event of an invasion an intervention of some sort from the United States is almost certain and there's a good chance that the US will call upon its Regional allies to assist as well this includes South Korea Japan the Philippines and perhaps even Australia and New Zealand a special note here is Japan who is quickly rising in recent years to become one of the world's most formidable militaries as they've begun budgeting hundreds of billions more dollars into their Defense Forces I'm not going to get into the speculation of what would happen if all these nations went to war with each other other than the fact it would likely turn the operation into a drawn out conflict that would be messy and Incredibly deadly what it does mean though is that China's ideal invasion of Taiwan would need to be successful before these other military Powers could must the bulk of their forces this would mean taking the entire island or at least surrounding it and controlling the skies in a matter of days reminiscent of Russia's three-day Invasion which is uh now approaching what two years speaking of Russia it's very possible that Putin's struggles in Ukraine have highlighted the unfeasibility of invading Taiwan after all Russia's military absolutely dwarfed Ukraine's in terms of Manpower tanks and the fact that the Russian Navy ranks in the world's top three while Ukraine doesn't even have a Navy regardless Ukraine surprised the World by putting up a stiff resistance spearheaded by Western anti-tank and anti-air weapons being on the defensive is an advantage that nobody should underestimate an advantage strong enough to often turn the tide of War as the war continues to evolve in Eastern Europe Russia's ongoing uphill battle sends a constant unspoken message to China a warning that Taiwan could be far stronger than meets the eye and Taiwan is only getting stronger with the threat of invasion imminence the island has been stockpiling weapons and vehicles knowing that a naval blockade could easily cut it off from Allied supply lines with every new imported F-16 Howitzer and surface to air missile system landing on the coast of Taiwan and dominating its Skies an invasion becomes ever more costly let's also keep in mind that China's military is largely untested and inexperienced in a large scale conflict China is not been to war since a brief conflict with Vietnam in 1979 and its military has yet to experience large scale Modern Combat as opposed to the United States which has a whole heap of operational experience from things like the Gulf War Bosnia Iraq Afghanistan and many more now with all of these factors combined it does seem clear to many that the risks of invading Taiwan far outweigh the supposed rewards sanctions and a worsening Chip War are the last thing China's stuttering economy wants to deal with at the moment a long drawn out War of Attrition would be unbelievably costly if a rapid attack doesn't work out and changing the relationship with the United States from political Rivals to outright enemies would have dire Global consequences for decades down the line but there's one more risk that we yet to mention when it could be the ultimate reason why Xi Jinping may leave the war with Taiwan purely rhetorical a military failure in Taiwan could have catastrophic effects on the political landscape of China the Chinese Communist party has been in sole control over the nation since the establishment of the People's Republic in 1949 over the years though their power has come more and more under question question notable protests include the famous tenan Square massacre 2011 pro-democracy protests numerous anti-censorship movements and widespread 2022 protests pushing back against strict lockdown measures it's not hard to imagine what kind of massive protests could break out if an operation into Taiwan were to result in thousands upon thousands of unnecessary deaths and economic hardship with nothing to show in return it's the kind of political ignition that could change the face of China forever perhaps even resulting in the end of one party rule over the nation considering all of this there is a good chance that China does not actually intend to attack Taiwan at least not at the moment but instead wishes to keep the threat of an invasion perpetually looming over the island with war potentially on the horizon at all times China can ensure that Taiwan doesn't do anything drastic like declare independence without ever having to take on the major risk of an actual War hopefully what this means is that if China truly wanted to invade Taiwan they had already done it it but only time is going to tell

Channel: Warographics

Views: 1,342,147

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Id: nhEv_oboywY

Length: 15min 2sec (902 seconds)

Published: Thu Dec 07 2023