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and get access to our new educational streaming service, Nebula, at no extra cost. One week
every year - either in January or February - Chinese train stations, bus terminals, roads,
and airports overflow with travelers. Chinese New Year is the largest human migration on
earth, with nearly 400 million people returning home to their families. For comparison, Thanksgiving
sees 50 million travelers, the Arba'een Pilgrimage, 40 million, and India’s Kumbh Mela, 30.
Rather than give workers a yearly allowance of paid leave, Chinese factories and companies
shut down completely for two weeks of the year: around the Lunar New Year and National
Day. These ‘Golden Weeks’ test the limits of China’s world-class transportation network.
Many of the country’s notoriously-high toll fees which are normally designed to disincentivize
driving, are suspended, creating 40-kilometer or 25-mile traffic jams. Train and plane tickets
sell out in minutes, prices skyrocket, and, then, the celebrations begin. Kids receive
lucky red envelopes filled with cash, incense is burned for ancestors, and fireworks light
up the sky. In 2019, the year of the pig was celebrated with giant statues in malls, parade
floats, billboards, and, in Hong Kong, pig nose-shaped fireworks. The only things missing
were actual… pigs. In the last two years, a third China’s pigs have died in the largest
ever animal disease outbreak, causing pork prices to more than double. Now, losing such
a large source of food would be disastrous anywhere, but for the largest pork-consuming
country on the planet, under an administration whose power hinges on its ability to raise
the standard of living, during a trade war with the country who supplies its pig feed,
is a crisis some consider more dangerous for Beijing than the Taiwanese presidential elections,
the ban on Huawei, or, even the Hong Kong protests. Pigs are the ideal farm animals.
They don’t require much space, they bear about 12 piglets twice a year, and they eat
just about anything. Because of this, they’ve long been an important part of the Chinese
diet. But not for the reason you might expect. Mao Zedong called pigs “fertilizer factories
on four legs”, ordering they be fed leftover household scraps to produce high-nutrient
manure which would, in turn, produce higher grain yields. So, while nearly every family
owned pigs, eating pork was a rare luxury, reserved for holidays like the New Year. Today,
pork is still seen as a luxury, but one that everyone now expects. About half of the world’s
pork is consumed in China, and that’s not just because of its large population. Adjusted
per capita, China, Hong Kong, and Macau eat the 4th most pork in the world. Even more
impressive, that’s despite China’s $16,807 Per Capita GDP, compared to 3rd place, the
European Union’s $41,091. Pork accounts for two-thirds of all meat consumed in China,
with poultry accounting for 21%, beef, 8%, and lamb, 5. But even these numbers don’t
adequately explain the Chinese obsession with pigs. Throughout the country, pork is an almost
default ingredient. Dim Sum, dumplings, rice, noodles, soup, even, sometimes, desert, contains
pork, whether it’s listed on the menu or not. The Chinese word for meat, “ròu”
literally means pork. All other types of meat have to be specified. Cows, for example, are
“niú”, so beef is “niú ròu”. Fish, “Yú”, becomes “Yú ròu”. And so
on. The Chinese character for family or home, “Jiā” is composed of two elements, or
radicals - the character for roof underneath the character for pig. All of this is to say:
pork is more than just a meal in China - it’s ingrained in the culture. Which is why its
outbreak of African Swine Fever is so troubling. The good news is that the virus isn’t dangerous
to humans. The bad news is that it’s basically pig Ebola. The difference is that Ebola isn’t
airborne, only remains active for a few days at room temperature, and only has about a
50% fatality rate. African Swine Fever, meanwhile, spreads like wildfire. It’s found in all
the body fluids and tissues of its victims, who experience vomiting, high temperatures,
and difficulty breathing. Some variants have a 100% mortality rate. But death doesn’t
stop the virus from spreading. It lives in feces and urine for days and can be spread
through flies, ticks, insects, vehicles, equipment or clothing. And because there’s no vaccination,
the only solution is to kill and bury all infected animals. As of 2019, the virus has
reached Vietnam, Cambodia, Mongolia, North Korea, Hong Kong, and every province of China.
Official Chinese government sources estimate $140 billion in direct losses and the death
of a quarter of the world’s pigs. Although these numbers are likely inaccurate. Because
government subsidies for affected farms are set below-market prices, both local government
officials and farmers themselves are incentivized to hide and under-report the scale of the
outbreak. Regardless, the central government simply doesn’t have many options. Many countries
keep emergency supplies of their national obsessions: Canada has the Strategic Maple
Syrup Reserve, The U.S. has the Petroleum Reserve, and China, since 2008, has the Strategic
Pork Reserve, comprised of live farms and dozens of highly-guarded storehouses where
packaged pork is frozen and rotated. When prices rise, supplies fall, or in the days
before the New Year, the government releases some of its supply onto the market. The exact
amount of pork kept is a national secret but is said to be around 200,000 tons, which,
compared to the country’s demand for 50 million tons every year, hardly makes a difference
during a crisis of this magnitude. The government has lifted import bans, tried breeding giant
pigs, and some restaurants have resorted to cooking with dog or rabbit meat. High pork
prices present Beijing with not just an economic but also a political problem. For older generations,
being able to eat a once annual treat every day is a symbol and reminder of their country’s
progress. When pork is unavailable or too costly, on the other hand, it awakens grim
memories of China’s dark and hungry past. While international attention focuses on stories
like Hong Kong’s protests, it’s easy to forget that fighting for democracy is a privilege
afforded to the already moderately well-off. For millions of Chinese, the number one concern
is putting food on the table, and losing their favorite source of protein is more than merely
inconvenient. Even with reports of slowing inflation, it will undoubtedly take years
for China’s pig population to fully recover. In the future, China is expected to shift
more of its pig farming to large, industrial factories, giving it more direct control over
their operations. There’s one silver lining, however: the outbreak provides a golden opportunity
for China to embrace artificial and more sustainably grown meat. Less than 2% of China’s population
is currently vegetarian, and eating meat is very much part of Chinese life. So too, however,
is tea, and yet, companies like Starbucks and Luckin’ Coffee have seen explosive growth
in China. In one survey of 30 countries, 73% of Chinese respondents said they would eat
a plant-based meat substitute - higher than any other country, including India. And China’s
Ministry of Health released guidelines in 2016 recommending people cut their meat consumption
in half by 2020. No one expects China to suddenly become the leader in artificially grown meat,
but, twenty years ago, neither did anyone expect it to become the electric vehicle capital
of the world, or lay more high-speed rail than the rest of the world combined, or use
almost exclusively mobile payments, and yet here we are. China’s authoritarian model
has led to miraculously rapid technological progress. The pig could be next. There’s
another story about China I’m excited to tell but not quite ready to release. I’ve
been working on and traveling for an exclusive, extra-long video coming soon to Nebula, an
educational streaming service by some of your favorite YouTubers, including Kurzgesagt,
CGP Grey, Kento Bento, Wendover Productions, Half as Interesting, Tech Altar and Real Life
Lore. We’ve worked out a special deal with Curiosity Steam, so when you sign up with
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quick, it’s just $12 for the holidays. When you sign up with my link, you’ll get a welcome
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