Why $100 Uranium is Just The Start of a Long Bull Run

[Music] Mr guy Keller how are we Sir Mr Gordon I'm extraordinary how are you I I bet you are I bet you are it's it's fun time to be a uranium uh investor and I guess a little bit of it Told You So at the moment going on with you yeah there's a yeah I've got to admit it was quite nice spending a few weeks on the beach at the beginning of January and uh and and the strategy was ticking long making money and uh uh and it's yeah the phone has been pretty full on since we got back everybody wanting to know what's the secret source and how do we keep going with it yeah like an overnight success that it is um we here's the thing I want to talk about though it's like uranium is going to burst through I got it you 106 um dollars on on the uranium spot price obviously we we'll talk about term Contracting in the second equities have had a okay reaction to it I mean would you expected more you know I mean I don't want want to say an anticlimax but uh but I I think if I was looking back or we were looking back on previous conversations and we were daring to dream that we'd get to $100 I think we would have would have thought that some of our favorite stocks would be much higher I mean we're not complaining but you know much higher than where they are and I mean even when there some of the stuff at the junior end not even through September 21 highs I guess it's you know it's a function of you know macro nervousness uh people getting killed in other things like lithium and nickel and um you know people just saying I've I've had a quick 20% gain in 3 weeks beginning of the year I'll take it off the table so I guess we'll we we we'll see in the next few weeks as to what happens well well hope yeah hopefully we'll see a nice sort of sustained um price increase I think that's going to be a clue because I hear what he saying you know things like lithium rare Earths Etc have have had their day in the Sun and then come off a little bit doesn't help with that kind of terms that value destruction but uran's kind of got a whole different sets of drivers and I think the numbers are different and I I guess that is predicated on clearly a massive demand which we have seen across the world in terms of um you know reative bills smrs coming through the new countries new and politicians getting behind it so that's all good but the supply side isn't that where the talk is going to come from isn't that where the Leverage is going to come from because I don't believe for one second the production numbers are forecast what about you yeah well I mean it seems to be the lack of supply side at the moment um and obviously I think you know when I at the next few weeks all eyes will be closely watching what the kazaks have to say uh the beginning of February and and kamaka around the similar time as to what they're up to as well um and it you know it does it it's a it's it's it's an interesting Market when the the top two producers in the world with ti one assets that they know pretty well are struggling to uh to reach their guidance I mean it shouldn't surprise us because we're seeing majes in Copper missing production and we're seeing you know great uh everyone's High graded all sorts of things um but you know like I keep getting told that high prices are going to self Supply and uh and I sort of giggle and say great for where where's that Supply coming from I think what do we say there sort of five or six um developers that are bringing Brownfield sort of projects on but they're all small and probably you look at this year and you look at the incremental pounds coming on uh probably getting netted off by what the kazaks are going to miss and what kamiko is already guided to last year so like we it's this great year of high high price and we're not actually getting much more Supply coming well I think high price is great for um bringing new well but people dusting off old projects and bring them to the table hoping they'll work at these sorts of prices maybe could be but so I think it's good news for investors who want to invest in you know Exploration Place which may have like that kind of Leverage that they're they're looking for but in terms of actual Supply which is going to drive I think is the engine which is going to drive um you know price Discovery in ter uranium I don't think it's there I don't I don't think it's there if I kind of break that down as you say you've got the handful of producers who are struggling that doesn't bode well for people who telling us even though they've never built anything in Uranian before it's going to Easy Breezy we're going to hit our deadlines it doesn't B well for them does it yeah I mean you're really going to have to I mean 2024 is is going to be the year you really really have to pick your winners uh and do the work and you know whilst yes the price will keep going up and you will get a sector uh reflation and um you know but if it's still a macro what weak tape and uncertainty and and investors aren't you know the next investor is not there you're really going to have to you know be really mindful as to just have a smaller number of bigger bets I think um because yeah I mean this we we've had six years of of God's sort of stealing us where they got the best project in the world and all they need is a higher price and here we are at a higher price and suddenly they're updating a study or or uh or just starting debt conversations or you know or by the way I've got three or four more permits I've got to get but don't worry about it you know a lot of things it's not just prize a lot of things have to go right so where's it where's it going to come from where's this new production going to cover look I don't don't get me wrong I think if there's no if the production is not as high as people are forecasting uh that only gos well for spot price which will then have a reflection on on prices and valuations of companies but if you're a kind of purist and you say this sector must also work or people start designing it out of their Solutions um where's this production going to come from I'm looking to the aasa Basin in Canada I'm seeing long lead tians in terms of you know licensing and permits and Technical Solutions um is anyone well we know when when will we see production out of the AAS Basin do you think uh well I mean you know what are we in 2024 we're four years away from anything meaningful and and you'd have to argue that that first mover is probably next gen with arrow um you know but again they're waiting on on a permit and there's a lot things they need to get right you know after that there's you know everyone says oh cico will bring on their second tier Assets in the aaska it's like but what are which ones what are they've been doing they've done nothing with them uh they can't just turn these things on um you know so yeah I mean there's there's obviously it's it's a high-grade basin and there's some fantastic deposits and you know if you're an Explorer putting holes in and you're uh you're in the right spots you can get some really good news flow generating highr hits but turning that into a reality uh um is going to take time uh and money and expertise and you know as I said and community and everything yeah I think I think Stu and I think also the technology is something which I suspect will come back to B us on the thumb you know because I think proper tests need to happen over sustained periods to actually prove that technology will work now and well into the future because I think that's going to be a concern for First Nations across yeah and this is the thing you know like we these projects we're talking billions of dollars of capex right so you want to get it right um and you know I thing that when we sort touched on permitting you know just because the price is high and there's more urgency to potentially bring a a project to Market does not mean that the government employee sitting in the in the ministry of Mines approving permits are going to move any faster uh and if if miners continue to want to poach the good people out of those departments to help their own permitting process and then get frustrated that a unig grad's taken that position you've only got yourself to blame guys okay and let's show that's quite funny let going to drop South into into the us because again what we're seeing is it's kind of patchy right lots of little half million pound projects again given the the demand drivers in the US and and and this and the need uh for product in the US um what you what you what are you seeing that we've seen a bit of m&a clearly what do you see happening there going forward yeah look I mean as you said of of all the restart jurisdictions um it's the US that's the most active uh and it's ISR brownfields restarting um you know there's there's a handful there that are that that are starting restarting in in good management teams who know the projects uh and they're imminent um you know if you believe uh everybody else running around they've got similar projects that are just as easy but again you know they're not because they've got to get permitted uh they've also got to get the community engagement if they're there if it's BLM or federal land or uh you know there's a whole bunch of and depending which state they're in you know and and again you're still spending hundreds of millions of dollars to to bring you know 500,000 800,000 of ISR on so you know we we see this wave there may be a few more that that restart uh there may be some conventional stuff I mean you know Mark's obviously trying to bring some old conventional stuff to to have something to put through that Mill um much CH of Energy Fuels yeah but but then again after all that sort of you know excitement um peels off like what's next is there's no me mega projects in the US right there's no five or six or 7 million pound a year projects um there's some good assets but you know what do you think it's going to take something like like a you know established produc like a cam there they're sitting on a whole bunch of ISR projects in Wyoming clearly with about $180 million Bond on it as well so perhaps they'd rather get rid of that um but is it going to take someone like them to take a grip of the situation in the US where they've got the expertise they've got the balance sheet the ability to raise reasonable capital and bring and consolidate a lot of these assets together because it is patchy it is bitty and if you having to build lots of different infrastructure projects it's highly inefficient as well yeah and that's I mean it again it comes down to to to exactly that point there are whole there's a a myriad of small deposits or small production capable deposits um you know so what do you end up doing you have central processing facilities and you and you're Trucking loaded resins around the United States across you know interstate highways I mean it's not efficient there's cost in it um so even if someone like a kamico came in and tried to consolidate that you know like even with the USIS at their Peak they weren't doing you know significant volumes per year for for for compared to MacArthur River and cigar Lake for example so you know do they bother in the US um or does it just end up being uh you know localized plays where uh somebody has a processing plant and just buys up well fields around it um or in the cas of energy fields are they just tolling deals done uh with you know small Juniors who who who want to be able to pull out half a million pounds at a conventional and just send the a to the mill and and say at least I'm doing something um but again you know there's nothing major that's that you can see solving a us uh supply problem yeah well in yeah I think I think it's going to be a tough one but it's some something needs to happen there some sort joined up thinking as it were joined up financing needs to happen there um which I'm again alludes me at the moment but I think and if it doesn't then the US needs to make a whole bunch of friends and the US needs to find Solutions because we're looking at because that's some problem the conversations with Russia China where you you know that that product's heading east right um so we look to Africa I think you know we look to ner Namibia Mal uh Malawi next door um again what what are you seeing with those guys CU some some big they they seem they're talking the game of like Advance development they're talking the game of you know FID this year in a number of cases um are they going to be able to deliver yeah look I mean I'm I'm when when you look at Africa I'm surprised there's not more activity around what's available in in Namibia um you know um there's there have been historically some good uranium producing countries in in Africa and Namibia is currently the only one that's that's politically stable and uh and has you know operators actually producing uranium so it surprised me that that I mean we may see that coming we may see a little bit more action there um you know we were sort of having a giggle Before Christmas uh catching up with your mate Brandon I'm pretty convinced he owes me a bottle of wine actually because I'm sure I made a bet that I've won um you know we bought that stock what was the bet the uranium was going up to 100 bucks faster than he thought it was going to and um yeah you safely won that BB as I said offline I I I was secretly hoping I'd made it with you because it's better wine from you but anyway I'll have to put out with he drank it by the way he I I saw him I saw him two Fridays ago down in London he brought some I don't know some screw top wine from Australia and uh we're s with two other fund managers and um they brought some European in trash yeah to get like get your your good stuff if I owed it to you it's gone rather drink it there we go C like brown yeah but I mean you know like we we we we bought that stock we bought bamin seven years ago at 4 cents or something and yeah and you know as a bit of a he's got a good presence you know he's doing a lot of social media and stuff and and as a leverage player retail love it love him um you know and if if if he's making a final investment decision then wowe what a sector it's going to be and there's going to be all these projects on yeah we fast forward seven years none of the things that I expected to happen elsewhere have happened and and and here here is you know as well as others in you know D Yow is probably not far off as well but you know lowgrade sort of bulk moving operation that that you know back then we're like wow um and I think the market has to look at places like that that you know I mean nier has has obviously they've weathered plenty of political upheaval since 1972 or whatever the French started mining uranium there um I think people want to draw parallels and say that the fact they they're trying to kick the French out and stop them producing um you know I think that's probably a little bit more to do with Colonial Legacy than uh than anything else but again um you know when you're looking at at at at the the French market and you're looking at at Global trying to build daa there the market needs those pounds um they need to find a solution um you know Mali previously producing asset there Market needs it they they need to make that work um the problem with with with you know those other African countries is there there's one project there you know there's not a dozen so if a country solves everything they need to solve to to get say Calia Cara back online there's not five other C projects that are that are lining up to say right malao is now the next uranium jurisdiction um you know and that's sort of where Africa gets a bit patchy um unfortunately which is why I'm surprised there hasn't been more uh eyeballs from from consolidation in in Namibia right and no no I agre I agree with you um it it's very not just mining friendly it's very friendly country with you know without any political Strife or or um Waring um factions or anything is is fantastic um but if you're if you're looking at Africa they would we talking about some we didn't mention any numbers of it that you know in in nishia and L with lotus and and um banman to yellow and Lang high it's it's big pounds we're talking we're talking about you know three to eight million pound type production that you know things that that you know us could only dream of at the moment in terms of some of those projects half million pound here million pound here maybe ramping up to two million at some point maybe could be um so the big counts it's needed but the the kind of the the shadow which looms over the African play are it used to be oh they AK-47 countries which I thought was a ludicrous statement way back when um you know but people have never been or worked it but it's still a low grade product and people wor and I we have this conversation about low grade versus high grade across all Commodities so there not nothing new but trying to get people to understand that grade is only one of the variables that You' been looking at in terms of the economics of this thing do you do you think would are you do you understand from you know your conversations CLE that people are recognizing Africa as the kind of short-term solution the midterm solution as it were because if you've got us very few us companies getting into production with not a lot of pounds you got the Canadian sort of slightly hamstrung with permits and licenses Etc surely Africa as a North American provider is going to be really really important um going forward well I mean it has to be right because to your point you can get your two or three or four or five million pound perom projects there and you know it comes down to you can have the highest gr deposit in the world um but if you can't get to it for whatever reason be it geology be it water be it governments be it Community then it's not really worth anything is it if you've got a lowgrade um bulk tonnage operation at surface in a country that's you know easy to operate and easy to get it to port and therefore Market uh and you can get your acid you can get your power you can get your water whatever you need then it is a viable project doesn't matter if it's a 100 PPM cuto off versus a 15,000 PBM cut off that's irrelevant um you know it's the ability to to get it to Market um at a price that allows in investors to make money um so you know and $40 $50 there's a lot of stuff in in Africa that was not viable um70 or $80 there's marginal projects but 100 plus um you know for a market that needs it and and even if two or three or four of them come on and you're getting 20 or 30 million pounds out of them it's still not solving the primary mind Supply deficit it's helping it's getting us closer um but it's still not solving it so you know and you know as we know the the battle's going to be the battle for Capital coming forward and and and project Finance Capital not Equity Market Capital because you know like these projects still need two to three to6 to $800 million us right if if you believe their numbers and the equity Market's not going to give that to most of these market cap companies uh and so therefore you got to get in the project Finance route you know is is is Bay's Bank in in in uh in the counties going to be doing project Finance in Africa probably not is an Australian Bank no um so you know you're looking at these export Banks you're looking at these Credit Agencies and that takes time um so you know the first mover on that perspective is is is is going to benefit um not the second or third Mur because the first Mur will will have navigated that project Finance debt um you know the other solution of course is the utilities wake up to themselves and go down the the route of uh lithium and oems and just prepay the hell out of to to get it built instead of relying on the capital markets to solve a Uranian problem and an Africa problem for example um you know all in the same breath yeah that's that's the massive disconnect so that's what will never happen which is you know to solve a markets problem this the market problem is is about how do I drive my share price sorry I'm talking about Capital markets yeah in in sense of share you know you've got people's incentiv is to drive the share price up that's how they get rewarded they get paid their salaries they get paid bonuses um you know maybe even an accet there the industry problem is is very different which is where the hell is the supply coming from so you've got utilities who may have the balance sheet because they're much bigger than just nuclear um you know they they could step into the breach they could do the Tesla and they and and go go Upstream but they're they're they're not going to they're going of risk ofers they're not it's not an area they comfortable or know particularly that well just you know hedging BS with some term contracts which may or may not need to be paid as of if the company well when the company can deliver that's that's a that's a different ball game so the risk is much higher up here but I want to come back to the kind of valuations right because like you you run a fund yeah you got it you talk about four bucks on Balman well done I think I I did a few at five and you know very very exciting compared to where where that's the the well that did a 10 for one roll by with it so I was 4 cents in the original oral today new money and his Valu of these things were you know I asked a question earlier but would you expect that the the equities kind of caught up and kind of gone on a rip because we're you know hundred bucks right and it hasn't is the way that people should build their portfolios is what because for me I look at expiration kind of like if you're going and doing economic studies paa PFS DFS right so expiration from so paa is what could this be PFS what should this be DFS what will be right and there's a bit of that well there a bit still a bit of risk up there DFS and expiration being the Pea of investing the developers being the PFS of investing the DFS being the sort of producers you know as as as it works so in terms of the way we build our portfolios and you know we kind of balance that risk profile yeah because it's just it's slightly more confident because most explorers will do nothing you make on a run because momentum and that's great but how how when you're looking at the markets at the moment and say okay equities haven't reacted as well as they should how do you assess the the the the risk profile how should we as mere retail investors assess what's going on on out there where should we be putting on money uh for start you're not a mere retail investor but anyway so hang on hang on I'm I'm I'm bonding I'm bonding with people here right how dare you yes um the I mean the first thing I think you need to do is ignore most Equity analysis um you know everybody wants to tell me that something's screening expensive and and you know this Stock's pricing in $135 urania or whatever the hell it is right and and I sort of sit there and I go uhhuh uhhuh thanks very much noted noted noted and they've been telling me that for six years the whole way up you know uh I'm wrong I'm too aggressive and you know and and what happens they just go and adjust their model and tweak something and and and play catchup again and then say hey look at look at us we've upgraded our price deck and and you know they say you're not congratulating me I'm like You' still got a long-term price of $75 I don't care that you got a uranium price of $105 because the companies that you're covering aren't going to be producing in 2024 2025 or 2026 so it doesn't matter what the price is and you somehow think that we're going to magically fall back to to to you know $75 and and you know you're telling me that I'm wrong on my valuation so I ignore all that because there is a scarcity premium in uranium and there's no substitution the only substitution is to turn the things off or convince some government to go and down blend nuclear warheads again right um that's really IR only solution or you go and buy yellow cake or spart or something and say there's a problem solved um which again utility 101 at least have shares in the thing but anyway they don't think that way because they're nuclear fuel buyers they're not Market people um and so they're smarter than us in many ways um so you know I sort of I I ignore that and and and and I and I and i' like to sit I mean so for example I'm pivoting my portfolio a little bit um I made no bones of the fact that last year I was pretty heavily long cico because that was a trend we were seeing uh in in other resources through our Global natural resources platform so people were wanting to be in large cap copper stocks and they wanting to dance close to the door they wanted liquid they wanted you know the ability to get out if they were wrong and they didn't want to be convicted down this the capital stack right um so if it ripped um for whatever reason macro finished or you know sorry macro cleared up they at least had a finger on the pulse right so but I'm sitting here at the moment saying everybody now is saying what's next and there's a handful as I said that I like so I'm sort of moving down that but to then to your point you know you whereas as I said last year I was staying away from developers because they were all updating studies and putting numbers out which if they were a gold Explorer or sorry gold developer uh there would have been 12 analysts already pre-report in that um so the market would have been yep no problems but the uranium so there was you know one crusted on Old Blake sitting in a bar in Toronto somewhere saying uh yeah last cycle I should have retired you know and going oh wow look at that that's a big gex number I'm being cruel to equity analyst sorry because there are a handful of you that are pretty good um and you know so you have to logically think that that money is is going to especially if it's Kaz prom and Cho allegedly having all these problems that money will say well I still believe in the trade and I need to be somewhere so maybe I I do look at these developers who you know let's face it there's there's probably half a dozen that the institutional Market think could come raay so they're shorting them or they're or they're they're they're not buying them through this as aggressively as something else because they think they'll get a raise in the next month or two I don't think they will I think most of these guys will sit back for at least 3 to six months to get their ducks in a row to the point earlier not none of them have got project Finance so um you know go raise now and say Yeah in six months I'm probably going to get some debt so you know I think there's some value there because I think they release um and and then yeah I mean it's explorers I want people who are being active I you know I've I've I've played through consolidation plays I've played through spin outs and I uh know and I've made some money there obviously um there's a time and place for that but I'm starting to sort of be at the point where I want the rubber hitting the road whether as I said whether that's I'm going to get some money to start uh or I'm actually got a drill rig and uh and I'm planning another another drill program and this is what I want to do as opposed to yeah I'm going to fly a survey and and I've pigged all this other land and I'm going to have a look out there I want I want I want I want action figures I want russed on Go's kicking rocks and you know Drilling and things um because I've got the best chance of them sticking their head above the noise with some results right with some news flow as opposed to just hoping that the appetite for junior miners comes back and uh you know people get some money to spend again yeah amen Amen to that I I I I too want to see the rubber Hood the road I I do think there's this kind of G after talked about it with a few people this psychological game where you can of move from this transference of buyer Market to sellers market and therefore the sellers are are in control now so they're they're in control of the timing which is which is really interesting because um it it has the effect if the the longer they wait it has the effect of driving the price up because we're again getting further and further away from actual knee production or production which may fill that that Delta which we same between you know the the supply demand fundamentals so in a sense they're being a bit greedy because they're in control and they've had their ass spanked for the last 10 years so it's a little bit of payback going on here and all of this kind of Economic and GE political activity out there you know OB R Russia Ukraine and you know the you know the the the you know the Senate potentially about to pass that you know that Russian resolution it it it it's all primed and set up but Cy it's moves so quickly people are just looking it's kind of like you know when you're at one of those auctions and you're s desperate to buy something and you're sort of you just you you keep putting your hand up you're not quite sure why it's that same sort of psychology I I want to win this I want to win this so bad you same with the pricing no I'm not gonna I'm not gonna um go now I'm not going to go now because I think I can get extra five bucks I can get an extra 10 bucks on my contracts which I'm going to need to be able to raise my money to be able to build the godamn thing I'm not quite sure how I'm going to build Etc so I think there's a sort of human psychology there as opposed to as you say rubber hits the road this this industry needs to sort itself out and we need to get things done because the longer this goes on there's there kind of reaches a reflection point where he going to be so much damage caused and I and I and I think the developer I agree I think I want to see some developers get on with this yeah FID may may maybe that's going to be driven by with you Aussie the fact that your end end of year is not till June maybe people are going to save it to your new Financial year who knows I don't know what I don't know what the the incentives are um here other other than uh spot price kind of getting the market excited and and fluffy who knows um can I can I um I think that kind of the big by the way I did I I did want to I did want to talk about you know the fact that Alice are being quite lazy in terms of their analysis of of numbers and some of the forecasts are pathetic I mean sub 80 bucks long-term forecast which is nuts U but we'll save up for another day thing I do want to ask you about is um have if I'm coming into uranium now have I missed the boat we've we've had those questions when it got through uh what do we used to call it the psychological barrier of $30 uh you know we we had it at 40 we had it at 60 we had it at 80 we had it at and and now at 100 and uh and you know as I said it comes back to the it comes back to the maths of fundamentals we're at $100 and I don't see how the supply equals the current demand um and and I and I definitely do not see how Supply matches the future demand being added on as well you know there 30 million odd pounds a year of demand from the reactor build program um biggest in decades so you know I keep getting people say what's going to drive this higher from here and I say it's a wrong question the question is what's going to stop it going higher from here and and again coming back to I mean you could argue macro may stop it short term if the world goes into a funk um and uh and people just stop investing because it's too hard and sit in cash or whatever uh sure you know like the equities will stop going up but the real activity is not going to stop the nuclear the nuclear reactor is still going to be producing electricity because they're looking through Cycles right so it just pushes a can down the road um so suppliers got to respond or demand's got a crater and you know people say oh well you know 2007 it didn't stay very long up there at 140 and the contract price in the you know $90 to $110 doesn't stay stay there very long because there was a GFC guys you know that was a whole world falling apart so there was a perception that demand was going to Crater they hadn't solved the supply deficit then at those prices they just dumb luck that GFC kicked in and saved the nuclear fuel buyer because the he or she didn't have as much to buy then um so you know I don't think you've missed it um as I said I think there's the lazy there's the the easy option just to go and buy an ATF and you'll get some performance because the as I said you know you going by the ETF and the spot or yellow cake or whatever ever you get some physical exposure and a and a ETF you know if you'll make some money because it will keep going higher because it we haven't Sol Supply at these prices but there'll be I would say just I know you sorry to interrupt just quick I think for a lot of retail investors they absolutely should have ETF as part of their solution because it it D rest the kind of choice you can argue all boats floating the high tide all that kind of crap but mostly retail on average JP Morgan starts not me making it up you know the last 20 years making 2% return it they're shocking at getting it right more broadly yes of course there'll be the hardcore uranium Bulls who they know everything and it's going to be fine right but for most retail new people looking at this make ETF as part of your solution and then go and find do some work and find the companies most likely to meet your risk profile okay so I would say that so I'm not anti ETF although as say it's I I heard you use your word lazy easy uh for is so it shouldn't be you know 100% of what you do if if you're going to get into this oh well I mean the simple answer is you're rich your Rich wholesale High net worth mates they should just invest in my fund that's a simple answer uh and then uh when I get it right for them they can congratulate themselves on picking me when when you're playing croquet or whatever you do out in your your lawn this is the time by the way this is the time you meant to remind people of the name of your fund that's obvious isn't it marketing 101 um you know if I get it wrong you'll say God he was a bad fun manager um you know get and and that's I always say that to families down here all the time you know Aussie families love to to to want to do it themselves and I say great you know I've spent six to eight years in the in the properly in the weeds waiting through the mud in this sector and no one wanted it and you want to come in now at $106 and say yeah I can pick stocks and so you know as we talked about offline there's we we're in a bull market in uranium and there's you know not many but there's certainly one or two stocks that are going to struggle to be around in the next 6 to 12 months um you know if if last cycle is anything to come by um you know retail pters High net wor Earth families are going to get inundated with 350 more companies turning up saying hey we do uranium uh you know and three weeks ago they were a gold Explorer um so you're going to get in with that as well that's the important thing guy let's talk about that because lithium has just been through us and I referen it earlier but lithium's just been through us where we had a whole bunch of okay you people like B Patriot battery medals kind of got went early LIF and pain tight everyone gets excited there's another quite good one called lift as well those guys are ripping through the phases because they've raised them enough money to to to do that everyone else who jumped on that bandw and who were gold producers oh sorry gold gold explorers nickel explorers you name it explorers suddenly become lithium experts yeah and lithium finding it is easy because it's freaking everywhere okay see it from space and some cases um uranium a little bit harder to find and certainly much much more technical um so that it'll be harder to going to fake it there but that is where people lose money it's just happened in lithium we've seen this massive climbed down in terms of not just lithium prices but also the equities surrounding it where people have jumped on the bandwagon don't get caught out with these 350 new uranium Juniors who are going to be the next big thing because they're not they're here to take your money so I'm I'm gonna signpost that loud and proud I think and it makes me laugh as well you know that that cycle from wa the Spain PR is almost back where we were in 2020 you know it's like it's it's given up 80% of a 3,000% rally or whatever 1500% Rally or whatever the hell it yeah and you know like down here in Australia we saw PBA resources you know it's a large capap lithium producer that ried 4,000% uh and then you had things like core and a whole bunch of core lithium now the other end of the cycle about to exit um you know they ried 30 1,000% and then I've got people down here saying O you know these uranium stocks are a bit hot and say they're up 20% this month like that's not hot and and please for your lists I'm not by any means saying quick go and buy Uranian because it's going to go up 1,000% um you know but you I just it amazes me that the market could be comfortable with with that where lithium is solving for future Demand right like the reality is we're balanced market now and we need the Giga factories in Michigan to be built um and so we're trying to solve for that and we're comfortable with all these stocks going woska and uranium we can't even solve for yesterday's demand or today's demand and we definitely can't s for tomorrow's demand and everyone goes it's gone a bit too far uh I can't chase it here I need to take some profits and I think that's just more a function of macro really than anything else like if we're in a frothy Market with Bitcoin at 70,000 again and everything else going great uh this thing would be absolutely ripping along and people be falling all over themselves to get in well I think I think there's a couple of things going to happen um here certainly with price which we would hope would start to reflect in equities which is that I think price is going to go on a rep it's going to get quite peaky it may be a kind of sustained Peak until things settled down a bit but Peak nevertheless and then it should settled down as something more reasonable as in you know what meet expectations so there there's maybe a game to be played there if you're clever enough to go on that run and and call it at the top and maybe maybe you sell and kind of pick it up when it kind of settles down again who who knows how clever people L things this program are I suspect very um but then there then there's the you know in terms of that that that equities play you should say please please and I'm going to say it again is to do not get CAU out by these but yeah people jumping on the badwagon thing because you you will lose everything that you've gained elsewhere in your portfolio Okay yeah smart teams smart management teams CED assets with a plan in a jurisdiction where it it kind of matters at the moment um you know and someone do see overly can articulate all of the above clearly to you so be be be smart about this one don't get caught up in the um sentiment momentum and pumping up which never believe is going to be out there for you last cycle assets that that had progress being made on them as well you know I mean that's that for me is key there's plenty of last cycle assets that sat in a in a consolidator or a portfolio long list so that their EV to Resource looks whatever um but you know there's there's still a heap of last cycle assets that would that were progressing until the capital rug you know the Capital Market dried up post Fukushima uh you know there still so there there's there's diamonds out there that are going to come to Market um but yeah you you're right I mean try to we will at some point get back to that oh there's 500 list opportunities and as I said 300 of them you're going to be completely ignoring I me I I joke and so I want to head to some of these conferences as this starts happening so that I can come back and and have ruled out 98 of them and found two uh and somebody said that's not really a good use of your time is it I said it's a great use of my time because then when every broker and every person wants to bring me this bloody whatever you know golden uranium Corporation I can say been there done that met them move on don't even need to spend any time on it uh and I can actually put time into the things that I want to uh just by spending a couple of days Milling around a conference somewhere um yeah yeah I it it goes back to the the comment earlier about Brokers is they just don't do the work their incentivized entirely different way they want you to invest your money and everything because they pick up a Clipper C coupon on that they even pick up some warrant along the way it's it's all fine so they'll put you in any piece of crap and and I really object to that and that's a global not an ay thing just specifically it's a GL it's a global attitude of you know they're not going to do the work you've got to um and you know keep keep your head don't get carried away with the Euphoria although I think it'll it'll be hard over the next few months and weeks weeks and months but keep keep your head keep level head yeah yeah I mean and you know like you know what it's like as well it's it's even with these deals I'm in the weeds you know I'm I'm lucky that I'm part of our Global natural resources fund so we're active with every resource banker and resource broker in the world um and uh you know I've probably seen 90% of the ASX activity but I'd say in Canada and the US it's probably 70 you know because even I don't see it all um I certainly haven't participated in all of them I got to tell you that um but you know it's amazing how how you're right some of these when some of these you know you can often sometimes think maybe I'm seeing the deals that they can't fill with all their mates in Toronto but you know that's you know you got to be aware of that that's just the way the way the way the market operates yeah yeah well look I'm kind of appreciate time it's getting late there um over on the east coast so um thanks for joining us once again exciting times I'm glad your fund is doing you know reaping the benefits of all the hard work in the early days it's again a good good um example to us all about how to do investing you you you get in do the hard work at the beginning and you can in in a meaningful way kind of mostly sit back and and enjoy the bits when the when the time comes so yeah look at me it's a it is a good feeling to to sit here in in times that we've had not wondering whether I'm positioned the right way uh with the thing keeping me up at night thinking you know do I lighten up a few things here and there and uh or do I rotate um you know it's and it is you you have to just trust your conviction close your eyes put the positions on when nobody wants them uh so that when it does move you're not you know as you know when this moves it goes ding ding ding ding ding ding it's like sort of s Sydney property prices there's no there's no steps it's just goes up a floor at a time uh and and then you end up sort of in at bad levels uh because you panicked whereas you know used the periods where I mean even used now right like if you still believeing it you've and you haven't chased it for three weeks you've got opportunities to to to play in things you like here um and uh you know I'm always doing that sitting there saying great that's back at a level okay yes it's higher than what it was in December or or November it's not as high as it was last week but I still like it I want to be part of it so I'll used that just because somebody's taking some profit somewhere doesn't mean that my thesis is done agreed gu thanks very much mate all right no problems onwards and upwards we'll see how it all goes and uh and thanks very much for having me again it's always I I enjoy these sessions Matthew it's good

Channel: Crux Investor

Views: 16,460

Keywords: mining, gold, nickel, cobalt, uranium, vanadium, lithium, precious metals, crux investor, cruxinvestor, silver, TSX, ASX, AIM, LSE, investing in uranium, investing in mining, investing in stocks, investing in stocks for beginners, investing in gold, invest in stocks, invest in stocks for beginners, invest in gold, invest in mining, analyst's notes, analysts notes, analyst notes, battery metals, electric vehicles, net zero, carbon neutral, carbon credits, nuclear, best mining stocks, TSXV

Id: QF4j3Bid-wk

Length: 46min 16sec (2776 seconds)

Published: Tue Jan 23 2024