Who Are the RAREST Villagers in Animal Crossing?

in this video i'll show you the rarest animal crossing villagers using stats to back it up believe it or not there are certain villagers that are statistically more rare than others is it raymond it's raymond right well it's complicated you see there are 397 total villagers for animal crossing new horizons so you're probably thinking well one divided by 397 equals roughly a point two five percent chance you'll obtain the one specific villager you're looking for right there's actually a specific way the game calculates which villagers you'll meet when visiting nook miles islands and new horizons we'll start with the most common easy to find villagers and then work our way up to the rarest villagers in the game now before we get too far into the math we need to remove the six sanrio villagers which were recently added to the game but only through amiibo cards so that leaves us with 391 and in addition to amiibo cards there are three other ways for you to get some of those villagers on your island the first method is by inviting a villager staying at your campsite to move in the other two methods are both dependent upon you having an open plot of land for a new villager when you have an open plot you can actually just do nothing that's right do absolutely nothing the game will automatically move in a new villager after a few days this villager will be pulled from an unseen move-in queue and unfortunately we don't really know how villagers get added to this queue there's quite a bit of speculation online that it's somehow tied to villagers you meet on your friends islands but then what if you don't have any friends now most players prefer not to sit around and wait for the game to automatically choose your next resident enter villager hunts visiting islands using nook miles tickets has finally given fans of the series at least some control over which villagers move in they're by far one of the most popular activities for players and new horizons i mean just look around on youtube and you'll find tons of videos with players searching for their dream villagers but just how good or bad are your odds of landing the villager you want welp let's just say i don't think you're gonna be happy let's get started with the most common villagers in animal crossing new horizons which just so happens to be any villager in the sisterly category at a 4.17 chance the reason for that is because the game will always start each island with the same two types of villagers one female sisterly villager and one male jock villager there are only 24 sisterly villagers in the entire game so your chances of getting the specific one you want when starting out for the first time is 1 in 24 or 4.17 there are 56 male jock villagers so your chances of getting the specific villager you want there is one in 56 or 1.79 percent now these numbers may actually seem pretty low but considering the vast pool of villagers remember 391 these are actually the highest odds we'll see in today's video oh trust me they're gonna get much much lower quick tip here for starting the game though if you have a specific male jock villager or female sisterly villager that you want on your island your absolute best chance of getting them is right from the start if you don't get them you can actually reset your game pretty early just follow these steps start the game and watch the scene where you see the first two villagers at the airport if you're not satisfied reset by pressing the home button and closing out of the game then restart the game and repeat the above steps until you're satisfied the odds on those villagers drop quite dramatically after the initial start of the game so if there's one of those that you're really really hoping for your best chance is gonna be right there at the beginning okay now it's time to prepare yourself anytime you visit a nook miles island while having an open plot of land the game will place a villager on that island for you to talk to and invite to your island if you wish but just how does it calculate which villager you'll see the game will first select a species and there are 35 species and new horizons which means each one has a 2.86 chance of appearing so the odds there are exactly the same across the board but after the game selects the species it will then randomly select one of the villagers from within that species and with new horizons the number in each varies drastically there are only three octopi which is why the odds of finding the specific octopus you want are the highest of any villager in the game you simply multiply 35 times 3 which gives you a 1 in 105 chance or 0.95 percent of getting the octopus you're after now there are actually some proven mathematical ways to increase your chances of getting certain villagers and that's dependent upon who you already have on your island i'll make sure to cover that after we go through the full list here moving on from the octopi though the next most likely to appear villagers are one of the four cows your odds of seeing the specific cow you want are 1 in 140 or 0.71 next up we have rhinos and bulls at 1 in 210 or 0.48 percent notice we're already seeing significant drops as we move down the list here alligators anteaters hippos lions and tigers all have 7 villagers in each so you'll see a 1 in 245 chance or 0.41 chance at one of those follow that up with the hamster kangaroo monkey and goat categories where you'll have a 1 in 280 chance or 0.36 percent there are nine villagers in each of the following species chickens eagles gorillas and koalas here you're looking at a 1 in 315 chance or 0.32 percent deer and ostriches are one in 350 or 0.29 while wolves and elephants come in at one in 385 or 0.26 percent i really hope i'm not crushing your spirits here because we are actually gonna go much much lower guys we've got sheep penguins and birds at 1 in 455 or 0.22 percent and from there we actually drop below 0.2 percent from here on out horses mice pigs or bears are one in 525 or 0.19 percent dogs and cubs are one in 560 or 0.18 there are a total of 17 ducks which puts them in a category all by themselves with a 1 in 595 chance or 0.17 and finally we've reached the top three categories for the rarest villagers in animal crossing new horizons this means your odds of landing on the specific villager you're after from this category are incredibly low at the third most rare you have any among the squirrel or frog species so if you've really been struggling to find marshall well here's why your chances of landing on the villager you want there are 1 in 630 or 0.16 percent at number two we're actually looking at the rabbit species with odds of one out of every 700 or 0.14 percent and finally atop our list we have the rarest villagers in all of animal crossing and that is any of the cat villagers there are 23 cats in total which puts them at the most populous species in the game 23 cats times 35 species means you have a 1 in 805 chance or 0.12 for landing on the cat you won so it's actually not just raymond here it's any of these cats simply because there are so many of them we're not done here just yet though because there are actually some very important caveats that will affect your odds and make them different from what i just read first up you have the move-in q which i mentioned earlier this factors in as well but since it's a hidden mechanic it's really difficult for us to include that in the math here unfortunately if you have a villager that is in this unseen move in queue it's unlikely they'll ever appear on your villager hunts and the only way to find this is really by trial and error and a whole lot of nook miles tickets korramora actually has a video up on this that goes into a lot more detail so i'll link that in the description below but here we also need to take into account which villagers you already have on your island all of those numbers we just ran through assume there are no villagers on your island and obviously that's not the case so instead your specific odds will be different based on who you already have on your island so let me show you how to calculate this for yourself based on the villagers you already have and also give you a few tips for how you can actually improve your odds of getting certain villagers okay let's say that i'm looking for lucky on my next villager hunt there are 16 dogs overall so if we multiply 16 by 35 we get a one out of 560 chance that our next villager hunt will result in lucky but what if i already have cherry and say biscuit on my island both cherry and biscuit are obviously dogs and considering you can't get duplicate villagers that would actually lower the number of possible dogs from 16 to 14. so instead of multiplying 16 by 35 as we did before we would actually multiply 14 by 35 which puts us at a slightly improved 1 in 490 chance of getting lucky see what i did there wouldn't it be great if there were ways to up your chances of getting the villager you want well here's where it gets really interesting because you could actually increase your odds of getting lucky by hoarding as many other dog villagers as you can you see what happens is because it will keep lowering the total number of dogs available within that species that means that number that you multiply by 35 is going to get lower and lower now i recognize for some people this is just not going to be feasible because you may not want to get rid of certain villagers or take in villagers that you really don't want but let's say you're someone who is really wanting a specific cat villager for example then your odds of finding the one you want actually go up the more cats you can get on your island now you can further increase your odds if you had all of a certain species this would actually up it even more unfortunately this is probably only feasible with the lower number ones like the cow or the octopus but let's say for example you were to have all four cows on your island that would actually remove one of the 35 species and lower it to 34. so then when you do the little multiplication there you're going to be multiplying by 34 rather than 35. honestly though the best way to increase your chances of getting the villagers you want is by having lots of friends who also play animal crossing this can take a lot of coordination but basically if your friend has a villager moving out and you have an open plot you can visit that friend's island and invite the villager to move to your island instead of course guys make sure you fact check me as well this was a lot of math so if i got one of these calculations wrong i definitely want to know about it so now that you know the odds which villager are you going after next let me know in the comments below if you're new to animal crossing i have a full beginners playlist filled with tips and tricks to help you get started with the game as always thank you all so much for watching i'll talk to you again soon

Channel: RetroRaconteur

Views: 1,086,290

Keywords: acnh, retroraconteur, villager hunts, acnh villagers, rare villagers, who are the rarest animal crossing villagers, most rare villagers, how to get the villager you want

Id: 9SQ3PU8QOas

Length: 10min 50sec (650 seconds)

Published: Sat Jul 03 2021