When: The Scientific Secrets of Perfect Timing | Daniel H. Pink | Talks at Google

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DANIEL PINK: All right. Thank you, Heath. Thank you guys for being here. So I'm eager to tell you about this latest book, tell you why I wrote it, and then give you some ideas from it and then take some questions. I wrote this book out of a sense of frustration largely. I was making all kinds of decisions in my own life about when to do things. When should I exercise? When should I do this kind of work? What should I do that kind of work? When should I start a project? When should I abandon a project that's not working? And I was making those decisions in a very, very sloppy way. I felt that I can make them in a more coherent-- I wanted to make them in a better way. I looked around for guidance. It didn't exist, but that got me curious. I've written some books about social science. And I said, I wonder if there is any research on this question? And it turned out there was a lot of research on this question. It was in many, many fields-- literally dozens of fields. It was in economics and social psychology, but it was also in molecular biology. There's a whole field of chronobiology. There is research in anesthesiology, endocrinology-- all these different fields asking very similar questions. What's the effect of time of day on what we do and how we do it? How do beginnings affect our behavior? How do midpoints affect our behavior? How do endings affect our behavior? And I felt if you go wide enough and deep enough into this research you can begin to piece together the evidence-based ways to make better, smarter, shorter decisions about when to do things. For you guys, what I did is I just put together five questions. I'm going to ask five questions and then provide the answers to those questions based on this research. But the main idea here-- and then I'm going to spend a lot of time taking your questions. The main idea here is that we think that timing is an art, but it's really a science. We don't have to make these timing decisions in such a haphazard, intuitive, guesswork-centered way. We can make them in a better, smarter, more systematic way. So let's talk about five. I'm talking five very specific, nitty-gritty questions about timing-- all kinds of different things, fairly idiosyncratic list here. So number one-- at what time of day should Alphabet hold its quarterly earnings calls? Alphabet holds its earnings calls at 1:30 Pacific, 4:30 Eastern. Is that a good idea? Does it matter at what time of day we do things? Does it matter a little? Does it matter a lot? Let's find out, all right? There's a huge amount of research on this. This is just one tiny little nugget. And as many of you know, there's some incredible insights one can get from big data now. I don't need to explain all that to you. One of the really interesting programs being used in big data research is something called LIWC-- L-I-W-C-- the Linguistic Inquiry Word Count. It's basically a gigantic text analyzer. It can take a giant body of text or a small body of text and do all kinds of analysis that would otherwise take an army of people to do. So these researchers at NYU-- so there's been research on tracking. You can actually have a pretty good read on the patterns of mood over the course of a day by analyzing tweets, because the program can measure the emotional valence of the words there. You can do all kinds of things with this, including measuring any body of text. So here's a body of text-- 26,000 corporate earnings calls. All these corporate earnings calls are transcribed. You guys put them on your site-- the transcriptions of all of your earnings calls. These researchers at NYU took these 26,000 calls from 2,100 companies over 6 and 1/2 years. Now, just think about manually reading through 26,000 corporate earnings calls. You would want to just beat your head against the wall after about five, right? And so they were actually looking for something else. And they said, does the emotional content of the words being used in these earnings calls both by the executives who are leading it and by the analysts and journalists who are asking questions-- does the mood change at all based on time of day? And the answer was, yeah, even when you control for fundamentals-- even when you control for fundamentals, right? Here's what happened. Afternoon calls were more negative, irritable, and combative, leading to-- here's the punch line right here-- temporary stock mispricings for firms hosting earnings calls later in the day. Now, think about that for a second. That's kind of weird, right? It doesn't make any sense. Think about it. You guys are familiar with earnings calls. The people who do your earnings calls-- your CEO and your CFO-- what's your CEO's first name? Sundar, right? OK, right. And then your CFO is Ruth. So are Sundar and Ruth pretty good? Are they any good? They know what they're doing more or less? You're being videotaped, but you know. They know what they're doing more or less? OK. Do you think those guys prepare for these earnings calls? Any of you ever been involved in anything like that? They prepare like crazy-- not just these two but any CFO and CEO. They prepare like crazy. They have talking points. They rehearse the questions. They're very well prepared. Do Sundar and Ruth have anything at stake in these earnings calls? What? Repetition. What else? You can say it-- personal wealth. Exactly. All right. So here you have-- and just extrapolate to how many companies were there? 2,100 companies. Extrapolate to 2,000 companies. Their CEOs and CFOs know what they're doing. They're well prepared. They have something at stake. And yet time of day had an effect on the mood of these calls to the point where the stocks for afternoon conference calls were temporarily mispriced. And I'm convinced there's someone out there-- maybe even in this building-- who has written a program to exploit that delta between the true price and the misprice because of time of day. And over and over and over again, we see this in the research-- over and over and over again. Here's what we know. Our mood does not stay the same throughout the day. Our cognitive abilities don't stay the same throughout the day. Our mood and our cognitive abilities change throughout the day. They change in predictable ways, and they sometimes can change in dramatic ways. Let me tell you what that means. Basically what we know is this. We tend to move through the day in three stages-- peak, trough, recovery, peak, trough, recovery. In general, our mood goes up, then it dips, then it goes back up again. And that has an effect on performance, and performance varies more than you would think over time of day. I'll give you an example of that-- hospitals. If you learn nothing else from our little session here this morning, don't go to the hospital in the afternoon if you can avoid it. There are predictable differences in hospital performance based on time of day. Example-- anesthesia errors-- four times more likely at 3:00 PM than at 9:00 AM. hand washing in hospitals-- huge deterioration in hand washing at hospitals in the afternoon. It's lunchtime. Let's talk about colonoscopies. Colonoscopies-- doctors find half as many polyps in afternoon exams as they do in morning exams. Unnecessary antibiotics fueling the rise of superbugs-- much more likely to be prescribed in the afternoon versus the morning. You see it in health care. You see it in education. There's a great piece of research from the University of Chicago looking at 2 million students from the LA Unified School District. Students who took math in the morning had better GPAs, higher test scores than students who took math in the afternoon. Over and over and over again we see this pattern. Here's what we need to know. Our cognitive abilities don't remain the same over the course of the day. They change. They change in predictable ways. They sometimes change in dramatic ways, and the right time to do something depends on what you're doing. We can talk more about that in Q&A, because I'm going to be pretty brief here. Another question about the particular tactical-- just put basically a dog's breakfast of tactical questions about timing. Two-- when should you ask your boss for a raise? When should you ask your boss for a raise? What time of day do you think you should ask your boss for a raise? AUDIENCE: After lunch. DANIEL PINK: After lunch. OK. Good instinct. What makes you say that? AUDIENCE: They're happy that they've eaten. DANIEL PINK: They're happy that they've eaten a free meal, OK? That's a good instinct. Tell me your first name. AUDIENCE: Amelia. DANIEL PINK: Amelia. All right. So let's take a look at this. Here's what we're going to do. We're going to analogize to some research-- very powerful pretty well-known research out of Israel. This is a study done of judges-- a study done of parole hearings. You'll see why this matters. These judges come before-- you have prisoners in Israel who come before these judges, and these judges decide whether they get parole. Do they stay in prison for the rest of their term? Do they get early release? Do they continue wearing an ankle monitor, or are they allowed to remove it? These are pretty significant decisions about human liberty. Does time of day effect those judicial decisions? And the answer is-- what do you think the answer is? Why else would I be mentioning it, right? I want you to take a look at this chart here. This is a chart. On the vertical axis is your probability of getting paroled. The horizontal axis is time of day. Early in the day, you've got a pretty good chance, then big drop. Then-- Amelia's instincts were very good-- the judge has a break. It goes back up then way back down. Then the judge has a break, then way back up. Now think about this for a second. Remember, your timing of when you appear before that judge is largely random, right? It's like going to the DMV. How long is a person waiting in line? I guess nobody here owns a car, so let's make something more relevant to your life. You're waiting in line at Whole Foods, OK? You're waiting in line at Whole Foods. How long it takes depends on who's in front of you-- how long that takes. You don't know when you're going to get taken. So take a look at that here. So imagine your loved one is coming in for a parole hearing immediately before the judge has a break. Your odds are not good. And then imagine the schmo behind-- the next person in line, the person who had ticket number 14 versus ticket number 13 in the order-- comes in after the judge has their break. There's like a seven or eight x difference. So what does this have to do with your boss? Here's what it has to do with your boss. When we make decisions-- human beings make decisions-- So first of all, this should scare the hell out of us about the criminal justice system. There other things about this. There's a great book that I recommend to you called "Unfair" by a guy named Adam Benforado who's a professor at Temple Law School. And it basically makes this very powerful argument that much of our justice system is built on assumptions and premises about human behavior that are not true. That's problematic. And so this might be another example. I'll give you another example of time of day effects on juror decision making. This is experimental research. Here's what they do. They have a fact pattern, all right? So here's what we're going to do. I got a fact pattern about a defendant. And I'm going to give this group this fact pattern, and I'm going to give this group this fact pattern. I'm going to describe to you a defendant and all the evidence about that defendant. You get the same fact pattern. You get the same fact pattern. The only difference is that this group, the defendant's name is Robert Garner, and in this group, the defendant's name is Roberto Garcia-- same exact facts though. When jurors deliberated in the morning, both defendants are treated the same way. When jurors deliberated in the afternoon, they were more likely to exonerate Garner and convict Garcia on the same set of facts. Yeah. So we should be disturbed about this for a number of different reasons. But let's take this back to decision making writ large. When people make decisions-- anybody makes a decision-- they come to that decision with, in their back pocket, a default decision. And that decision is largely no. Anybody here in sales? OK, yeah. So when you go to pitch a prospect or something like that, you know what I'm talking about. The default decision is no, right? You go to ask your boss for a raise. The default decision is no. You go to ask somebody out for a date. The default decision is no-- at least that was my experience. And when parole judges make decisions, the default answer is no. Remember, if a judge doesn't grant parole, she's fine. If a judge grants parole and that person she's paroled goes on to do something horrible, that's really bad for her. So the default decision is not to grant parole. What we see over and over again in studies of decision making is the following. People are more likely to overcome the default early in the day and immediately after breaks-- early in the day and immediately after breaks. So Amelia, you were exactly right about that. Hit your boss after lunch if you want a raise, because her default answer is going to be no. Let's go to another idiosyncratic tactical question. When should you begin a new diet or exercise program? Does it matter the day that you begin? Of course it does. Let's talk about this. We're going to move beyond the unit of a day. We're going to talk about timing in a broader sense. There's some very interesting research on what are called "temporal landmarks." So think about a landmark in physical space. What does a landmark in physical space do? Get you to slow down and pay attention. Helps you navigate, right? So there are also temporal landmarks. There's some good research-- a lot of research on this. Some of the best research is done by researchers at Penn, including Katy Milkman, Jason Reese, and Hengchen Dai, who's no longer at Penn-- now at UCLA. Here's what they found out. There's certain dates that seem to be better-- make it more likely that people will embark on behavior change. So you know this with New Year's resolutions, right? Anybody ever made New Year's resolutions? New Year's resolutions get a lot of bad press. Here's the thing. New Year's resolutions-- oh, my God. Half the people don't even-- half of New Year's resolutions fail. To me, you've buried the lead in that. I think the lead is that means half of New Year's resolutions succeed. That's a big deal when you think about how hard changing behavior is. That's a big deal. Why? Because all dates are not created equal. Some of them operate as temporal landmarks, operating somewhat similar to physical landmarks in space. What do these temporal landmarks do? They trigger a peculiar form of mental accounting. We open up a fresh ledger on ourselves essentially, the same way a business would open up a fresh ledger on a new quarter or a new year. So when they look at the research on when people begin behavior change-- and again, it's axiomatic. You're more likely to change your behavior if you begin to try to change your behavior. You don't begin, your behavior is not going to change, right? So what do we see? This is a study of a very large university, and they were able to get the data by looking at-- when you go to the gym, you have to swipe in. And so they had massive amounts of data. When do people go to the gym? Start of a new semester-- huge increase. Start of a new year-- big increase. Start of a new month-- big increase. Start of a new week-- very big increase. After your birthday-- a somewhat big increase. This is mitigated by the fact that there are decreases. There's a big drop in going to the gym on the day after your 21st birthday. I'm not joking. So what do we know about that? What's our question here? Our question here is, when should you begin a new diet or exercise program-- any behavior change? The day you choose to begin-- those days are not all created equal. You have a better chance if you begin on a Monday rather than a Thursday, if you begin on the first of the month rather than on the 13th of the month. You can choose personal temporal landmarks. You're better off beginning the day after your birthday, the day after your anniversary working here than three days before that. Temporal landmarks shape our behavior, help us change our behavior. Number four-- when are you most likely to run your first marathon-- at what age? AUDIENCE: 35. DANIEL PINK: 35. Great guess. Who else has a guess? 35 is a great guess. AUDIENCE: 29. DANIEL PINK: 29. Who said 29? Why do you think 29? AUDIENCE: I think as you approach 30, you start to [INAUDIBLE]. DANIEL PINK: Have you run a marathon? AUDIENCE: No. I'll be 29 next year, and I'd like to run a marathon. DANIEL PINK: OK, there you go. So tell me your first name. AUDIENCE: Abby. DANIEL PINK: Abby. Abby wants to run a marathon at age 29. Why, Abby? AUDIENCE: Because it's something I've said I wanted to do for a long time, and I'd rather do it when I'm in better physical fitness. I don't know. 30 feels like a-- a thing to do before 30. DANIEL PINK: Absolutely. So here's what we know about that. As luck would have it, I have a chart on 29-year-olds and marathon running believe it or not. Now, here's what we know. The age at which people are most likely to run a first marathon is age 29. This is the work of Hal Hershfield at UCLA and Adam Alter at NYU. 29-year-olds-- twice as likely to run a first marathon as 28-year-olds. 29-year-olds-- twice as likely to run a first marathon as 30-year-olds for exactly the reason that Abby is telling us. Abby, do you think you're going to be physiologically different next year-- twice as physiologically set to run a marathon? AUDIENCE: If our trainer at the gym has anything to say. DANIEL PINK: There are not massive physiological differences between 28-year-olds and 29-year-olds, between 29 and 30-year-olds. Let me give you another question. What's another age at which people are most-- I'll give you a hint. It's about 10 years later. What's another age at which people are disproportionately likely to run their first marathon? 39. OK. Here's another one. What's another age at which people are disproportionately likely to run the first marathon? 49. Let's look at that. 49-year-olds-- three times more likely to run a first marathon than 50-year-olds. Right? There's a whole effect. Remember, our lives in some ways are episodic. And there's a whole line of research that I write about in here about the effect of endings on our behavior. One of the things that endings do is endings help us energize. When the end of something becomes salient, we kick a little harder. One final question for all of you before we take some questions from you-- another idiosyncratic tactical question. Here we go. We're going to play a guessing game. What activity am I describing? I'm going to describe the benefits of a particular activity. You are to tell me what activity I'm describing. Here's what this activity does for us. It delivers a significant boost to positive mood. Any guesses yet? AUDIENCE: Sleeping. DANIEL PINK: Sleeping, good. AUDIENCE: Dancing. DANIEL PINK: Dancing, good. AUDIENCE: Exercise. DANIEL PINK: Exercise, good. OK. This is good, so stick with those answers. Here, I'll give you another one. This like a game show. We're going to peel this back a little bit. It increases sensitivity to others and makes you more likely to subsequently cooperate with others or perform a good deed. AUDIENCE: Alcohol. DANIEL PINK: Alcohol, good. Great guess. OK. So what do we have on the table here? We have alcohol. AUDIENCE: The holidays. DANIEL PINK: The holidays? OK. So let's see what we have on the table here. We have celebrating a holiday. We have exercise. We have alcohol. AUDIENCE: Expressing gratitude. DANIEL PINK: Expressing gratitude, very good. AUDIENCE: Meditation. AUDIENCE: Taking a walk. DANIEL PINK: Taking a walk, very good. Meditation, very good. All right. So there's more here, folks. There's more. Here's what else it does. It calms heart rates and it boost endorphin levels. AUDIENCE: Meditation? DANIEL PINK: Meditation, good. We have two votes for meditation. We're not done. AUDIENCE: Eating. DANIEL PINK: Eating, good. Good guess. AUDIENCE: Sex. DANIEL PINK: Good guess. Sex is good. It increases pain thresholds and reduces the need for pain medication. AUDIENCE: Friday. DANIEL PINK: Friday. Good guess. Great guess. You guys are circling this. AUDIENCE: Marijuana? DANIEL PINK: Marijuana, good. So what do we have? We have marijuana. We have meditation. We have Friday. We have sex. We have alcohol. We have exercise. That's not it. One more-- it increases the production of immunoglobulin, making it easier to fight infections. AUDIENCE: Sleep? DANIEL PINK: Sleep? Good guess. It's not sleep either. You know what it is? AUDIENCE: Reading? DANIEL PINK: Say again? AUDIENCE: Reading. DANIEL PINK: Reading. Good guess. AUDIENCE: Sunlight? DANIEL PINK: Sunlight? Good guess. AUDIENCE: Your birthday? DANIEL PINK: Your birthday? My birthday? My birthday has this effect on people worldwide. When it's my birthday, July 23, immunoglobulin levels around the world spike. AUDIENCE: Adaptogens? DANIEL PINK: Say again? AUDIENCE: Adaptogens? DANIEL PINK: Adaptogens? OK. I don't even know what that is, but it's a great guess. Here's what it is. It's an activity. It's an activity. You guys had a lot of guesses for activities, but you didn't manage to get the right activity. The activity that has all these benefits is choral singing. You seem pumped about that answer. Why? AUDIENCE: Because I just started singing again, and I'm actually working one on one with a coach. And she probably said all these benefits to me verbatim. And I forgot that that was singing. DANIEL PINK: Yeah. But it's not just singing, it's singing in a group. It's singing in a group that is different. Here's what this is about. There is a rich and fascinating body of evidence showing how people coordinate and synchronize in time-- how we're able to do that but also the benefits of it. These are the benefits of choral singing. Basically, choral singing is about as good for you as exercise. Tell me your first name? AUDIENCE: Lakshmana. DANIEL PINK: Lakshmana? Lakshmana says exercise. Exercise is so good for you. You're crazy if you don't exercise. Exercise is so, so, so, so good for you, all right? Choral singing gets the silver medal. I think it delivers more benefits than meditation. The research is overwhelming on this, and it's part of a larger body of research showing the benefits of synchronization. When we synchronize with other people, we feel better. I'll give you an example of it. Let's take rowing. Measure people rowing individually-- you can measure, because it's physical. You can put cameras on people, sensors on people and say, go row. And you row your whatever the boat is called. You row the boat, all right? And so you can measure physical exertion. And then you can say to people, how much pain are you experiencing? Because it's very physically exerting. You can give them a chart saying, how much pain are you experiencing? Then you can have them row with a team-- row in a group. And they can exert themselves physically the exact same amount. We can measure this. Exert the exact same amount-- they report feeling less pain even though they were exerting themselves the same amount. They were in a group doing it in synchrony. They reported less pain. You see this in some really fascinating work on children. You have children. Imagine you're children. I'm the teacher. This half of the room-- we're going to play an awesome, fun game for a little while. This group over here-- we're going to play an awesome, fun game, but it's going to be a synchronous game. We're going to play a game like clap and tap where you go-- everybody follow me. Clap, clap, clap. Oh, you don't-- I mean just hypothetically. Tap, tap, clap, clap-- we play a synchronous game. Totally fun game-- it's synchronous. Totally fun game-- it's not synchronous. We take these kids, move them out of this room-- more likely to help the teacher, more likely to want to play with kids who don't look like them. Same thing is true on swing sets. This is incredible. This is research out of Oxford. This is incredible. Swinging-- swinging is awesome, right? Being on a swing set is awesome, right? Total mood booster. Unless you have serious motion sickness issues, swinging is cool, right? So you put two kids on a swing. These two kids swing synchronously. Next two kids swing asynchronously. These two kids who swung synchronously-- same thing-- more likely to cooperate, more likely to collaborate, more likely to be open to playing with kids who don't look like them. There is something really peculiar in the human condition that makes us-- synchronizing makes us feel good. Synchronizing makes us do a good. Synchronizing with other people is a powerful elixir-- more than I ever would have expected. Because there's something about us that makes us want to synchronize with others. So those are five simple idiosyncratic questions about timing. There are about 100 more of these really cool things. So I'm happy to talk to you and answer any of your questions about the pattern of the day, why breaks are important, how beginnings affect us, how midpoints affect us, how endings affect us, how groups synchronize in time, and how the very way we think about time-- including even the verb tenses we use-- shapes our behavior. So what are your questions? Yes sir? AUDIENCE: How can I optimize my schedule to the peak, trough, recovery thing? I heard you on the Tim Ferriss podcast, so I was starting to use this. And I started noticing how, yeah, earlier in the day, I'm better at analysis. Then I go through the trough, then I recover in the afternoon. However, my schedule is kind of inconsistent. Left to my own devices, I go to bed at 2:00 AM, wake up at 10:30. But sometimes I have early meetings, so I can't do that. So how do I-- does the PTR start when you wake up, or is it a regular time every day? And so if I wake up late, I might wake up in the trough. DANIEL PINK: Great question. I totally understand your question. I just like to throw things in public. It's a great question, and it's complicated. Tell me your first name. AUDIENCE: Chris. DANIEL PINK: Chris, OK. So one thing that we have to think about is-- what we're looking for in terms of figuring out the right time to do work during the day is what social psychologists call the "synchrony effect." It's sort of a fancy word. What you want to line up are type, task, and time. So type is really important here. So type means chronotype. Chronotype is basically your propensity. Do you wake up early and go to sleep early? Do you wake up late and go to sleep late? On a free day when you don't have to be anywhere or do anything, what time would you typically go to sleep? Do you say 2:00? AUDIENCE: Probably around 1:00 or 1:30. But if I have a week of nothing, by the end of the week, I'm going to bed at 2:30. DANIEL PINK: OK. So let's split the difference and call it 2:00. All right, so 2:00. And then what time do you typically wake up? AUDIENCE: 10:00. DANIEL PINK: 10:00. OK. So what we're trying to do here-- there's a very easy back of the envelope way to figure out someone's chronotype. So what we're looking for is the midpoint of your sleep. So the midpoint of your sleep-- if you go to sleep at 2:00 and wake up at 10:00, your midpoint of sleep is 6:00 AM. And basically the way it works is that if your midpoint is before 3:30 AM, you're generally a morning person-- a lark. If your midpoint is after 5:30 AM, you're generally an owl. So about 15% of us are larks, 20% of us are owls, but 2/3 of us are in the middle. And so would you consider yourself more of an owl than a lark? AUDIENCE: Yeah. DANIEL PINK: OK. But you still have to go to 8:30 meetings. So in general, 80% of us move through the day peak, trough, recovery. Owls are more complicated. Owls are more complicated. And in many ways, as you're hinting, I think that the corporate world-- the traditional world of work-- is designed to crush the spirits of owls. And to my mind what should go on is that the organization should accommodate the owls rather than force the owls to accommodate the organization. That said, that doesn't always happen. In fact, that rarely happens. Let's talk about the early morning meetings here. What time would you have a meeting? AUDIENCE: The earlier ones are 9:00 AM? DANIEL PINK: 9:00 AM. All right. So how do you feel in those 9:00 AM meetings? AUDIENCE: Usually not good. DANIEL PINK: OK. Great, awesome. Do you feel like you do your better work later in the day? AUDIENCE: Yeah, typically. Although now I'm realizing that also I do some good work earlier in the day. If I get up at 9:00 AM, I am doing good work at around 11:30. DANIEL PINK: Oh, interesting. OK. AUDIENCE: There is a zone there, and then I do hit the trough after noon and then 7:00 PM, 8:00 PM on again. DANIEL PINK: Interesting. OK, good. So one thing here is-- and I think Chris raises one of the most important points here-- is that what the research gives us are general guidelines for large populations, but there's going to be some human individual variation. And I think the key is to actually pay attention to how you're feeling and what you're doing to observe yourself better. So you could be, Chris, either-- it'd be interesting to see what kind of work you do. But you could be either basically peak, trough, recovery just starting later, or you could be actually recovery, trough, peak, which is actually fairly common among owls. What would be happening early on is that recovery period which is good for certain kinds of work, and then the peak period is later in the day. But leaving that aside for the moment here, let's be very practical and tactical here. You feel like you really get going at around 7:00. Here's what I would do for you if you have those 9 o'clock meetings when you're not at your best. It's clear based on your facial expression that you're not at your best at 9 o'clock in the morning, which is totally cool. Here's what I recommend you do. The day before you have an important 9:00 meeting-- say you're working between 7:00 and 10:00 PM-- here's what I recommend that you do. Make a checklist for what you want to say at that meeting, what you want to accomplish at that meeting, what you need to get done at that meeting. Any questions you need to ask-- make that checklist. And actually come into the meeting with that checklist so you don't have to draw on your hazy mind when you're at your worst. Figure out what you want to do when you're at your best, and then give yourself those guidelines to rely on when you're at your worst. The other thing that I would absolutely recommend is-- and this goes to the whole chapter that I have on breaks-- is before that 9:00 meeting, take a walk around the block. Movement, sunlight, nature-- take a walk around the block. The other thing-- someone here mentioned gratitude, and there's a first cousin of this. Doing a good deed for somebody else is a pretty significant mood booster. So maybe bring somebody a cup of coffee or help somebody move something-- that kind of thing. So go into that 9:00 meeting with your checklist. Before you do it, take a walk around the block. Maybe do somebody a good deed. You're going to be a little bit better. And the key here that I want to emphasize, not only the individual variation-- the fact that science gives us these broad design principles-- but individual variation is going to play a role in all of this. You really have to get better-- what we're talking about here is not like, oh, my God, you're going to be a superstar in every meeting now at 9:00 in the morning if you do this. Here's what we're talking about. We're talking about this in a probabilistic way. So let's say that you have-- for you going to a 9:00 AM meeting, you have a 23% chance of getting good work done, getting good stuff accomplished. And if you do these other things, we can dial that up to a 28% chance. There's still a 72% chance this meeting is going to be a bomb, Chris, right? But I'll take that turn from 24%-- whatever I said-- to 28%, because you're going to go to a lot of meetings, right? Over and over and over, that's going to do it. So what we're talking about here is turning the dial in our favor a little bit using some of these principles and the individual variation that we notice in ourselves. Who else has a question? Because I get to throw something. All right, back there. How heavy is this? Ooh. That was my slider. AUDIENCE: Yes. So I noticed that, yeah, I'm much more productive in the mornings. And also doctors and dentists are all more productive in the morning. So traditionally I've always scheduled my appointments in the afternoon, that way I'm most productive at work. And then I go to visit them in the afternoon. But what you're showing now would be you should actually try to visit them in the middle of the day. But that means that impacts my productivity, because I'm working in the afternoon. So have you kind of thought about that trade off of optimizing yours versus others? DANIEL PINK: Great point. Great point, particularly on medical appointments. So here's the thing. If it's a significant medical appointment, I would pay the price of my own productivity and go in the morning. So for my own family, when there's something important going on-- a visit to a hospital-- my elder daughter at age 20 had her wisdom teeth taken out. She had to have general anesthesia. No way in hell she's going in the afternoon to that appointment. I mean that. I'm dead serious about that. For things serious, nobody in my family goes in the afternoon now. The numbers are that overwhelming, so I put a heavy weight on that. I'll give you an example of something that I do literally schedule in the afternoon-- a routine dental visit. It's going to be fine. It's pretty simple and straightforward. I don't have any serious dental problems. They're just going to do a cleaning and X-rays and whatever. They can probably do that reasonably well, and it's not worth getting a tiny little bit advantage of slightly, infinitesimally cleaner teeth and sacrifice my best work period of the day. So it's that kind of a trade off. But for anything significant? No way. Go in the morning. I'm dead serious. Go in the morning. I don't even think it's a close call. Yes sir. Oh, sorry. AUDIENCE: Similar to that, have you thought about time zones? Because then the trade off is interesting. Let's say you have a meeting or an interview with somebody in London. Do you optimize for their time, or do you optimize for yours? DANIEL PINK: It's really hard. It depends on the meeting and to some extent who's more important. So if you have an important customer, I would take the hit yourself and optimize for the customer. Make it the customer's best time. If you're talking about distributed teams within Google, Alphabet, then I think it becomes a little more complicated. Because remember, let's take a step back here. Think about our brains. Our brains evolved in a world where there were not hours let alone time zones. It is completely unnatural for our brain to be talking to someone who is literally in a different day, right? Our brains aren't wired to do that kind of thing, so it's very hard. So if you have these distributed teams as is very, very common, I think there are probably two solutions-- not even solutions. There are two responses to that. I think the meta thing is recognizing we are not built to do that, so it's going to be very hard. I think the key thing to do tactically are the following. One-- when we think about that conference call-- I imagine everybody in this room has been in a conference call where somebody is in Asia, and somebody is in Europe, and somebody is here-- multi-continent kinds of calls. I think what you have to do is, before you even schedule that call, you have to say, what are we trying to accomplish? And what, if anything, can be done asynchronously? If you think about a call-- a meeting of any kind-- it's basically a series of tasks to be done, questions to ask, tasks to be done. So you have this bucket of tasks to be done. You've got to look inside of that bucket and say, do all these things need to be done synchronously? And they usually don't. And so what you can do is you can take some of the things that don't need to be done synchronously, have them done asynchronously. So let's say something like you're going to talk over, I don't know, ideas for a new product or something like that. I think that what you could do is you could have people generate those ideas asynchronously and then send them around and then have the discussion synchronously. Because a discussion about those ideas is going to be more valuable synchronously. But if you say, OK, so who has some ideas, you're going to have some people in their absolute worst time of day. So figure out what you can do asynchronously. And then also spread the pain-- except if it's your customer, then you take the pain. Who else? Yes. I have to say, I'm very impressed with the hand-eye coordination of the people in this room today just throughout. We have not had a bobble let alone a drop. AUDIENCE: If you have bad hand-eye coordination, you just don't ask questions with this thing. DANIEL PINK: Oh, I guess that's right. We're self-selecting. Yeah, well put. That's a great point. So we're only hearing questions from people with very good hand-eye coordination. AUDIENCE: Level of confidence. So given the scope of normal adult day-- which is on a weekday, we're working. We've got maybe family and kids. We've got dinners. We've got maybe some prayer or meditation time-- what's the best use of recovery time? If you could structure your perfect day, what tasks or activities would you do during those recovery periods where we already know we're not productive or mentally sharp? DANIEL PINK: OK. Yeah, that's an interesting question. So remember, what we have on mood is we have this sort of peak, trough, recovery. Would you consider yourself more of a morning, more of an evening, or in the middle? AUDIENCE: Somewhere in the middle-- aspiring morning, but honestly more in the middle. DANIEL PINK: Yeah. So how would you do on midpoint of sleep on the question that I asked Chris on a free day-- not a day you have to wake up to an alarm clock, not a day you have to-- AUDIENCE: Right now I'm aiming for like 10:00 PM to 5:00 AM. DANIEL PINK: But not aiming. What would you do naturally if you didn't have an aim-- you just let your body do whatever it wanted to do? AUDIENCE: Maybe 11:00 to 8:00. DANIEL PINK: OK, 11:00 to 8:00. So you're-- AUDIENCE: 11:00 to 7:00, I guess. Eight hours. DANIEL PINK: So your midpoint would be 3:00, so you're larky. You're more of a lark than an owl. AUDIENCE: A lefty. DANIEL PINK: Oh, you're also left-handed? So here's what I think about it. So recovery-- this is mood-- peak. Did I screw something up? OK. Here's your mood over the course of a day-- peak, trough, recovery. So let's talk about that recovery period, because it's a very interesting period. The key in the peak period-- whether it's at the beginning of the day, or whether it begins at 7:00 PM, whether it begins at 8:00 in the morning or 9:00 in the morning as it does for me, or whether it begins at 7:00 PM as it does for Chris-- the key aspect of the peak is this. That's when we are most vigilant. Vigilance is the key point here. Vigilance means we're able to bat away distractions. That makes it a good time for the heads down, locked down, analytic kinds of work. The recovery period is actually a really interesting period, because here's what happens. Our mood goes back up, but we're less vigilant. And that ends up being actually an interesting combination. Think about brainstorming, for instance. I'm sure you've been in brainstorming sessions where someone says, that's a bad idea. That's a bad idea. They're hyper-vigilant, hyper-analytical, and so they're knocking down anything that's wobbly. But for brainstorming, you actually want a little bit of disinhibition. You don't want super-vigilance. And so it turns out that there's certain kinds of problem solving-- certain kinds of non-obvious problem solving-- that people do better in that recovery period which we look at as kind of a non-optimal period. You want your locked down, important, heads down work during your peak, but there's an advantage to that recovery period. You have elevated mood, less vigilance. You have some disinhibition, and you're feeling OK. Brainstorming, iterative work-- I end up doing a lot of my interviews-- so when I'm interviewing people for books and things like that, because my interviews-- I'm not an investigative reporter. I'm not taking a deposition. I'm not trying to trap people in contradictions or anything like that. My interviews are, hey, what do you think about this? What do you think about that? Does that make any sense-- much sort of yeastier. And I find I do those interviews better. I find I do my locked down writing-- making the words march in order on the page-- in the morning and then the looser stuff later in the day during that recovery period. Yes. I don't even know if we need this. AUDIENCE: I was wondering if there's been any work done to help, for example, the judges or the anesthesiologists perform better their drops or act more fairly. Do you just take more breaks? What's the solution there? DANIEL PINK: That's part of it. It's a really, really great question. At some level, there are two different kinds of breaks. One of them is a restorative break, and that's the kind of breaks that most of us should be taking at work. So we should be going out in the afternoon to take-- we know a lot about breaks. Basically, my view is that the science of breaks is where the science of sleep was 15 years ago. 15 years ago here at Alphabet-- or Google then-- writ large, people who pulled all-nighters were heroes. And now we know a lot about the science of sleep, and we say, no. You're not a hero if you pull an all-nighter. You're an idiot. You're hurting your performance. You're probably hurting the performance of people you're working with. I think the science of breaks are where the science of sleep was 15 years ago. We should be taking more breaks, and we should be taking certain kinds of breaks. So part of it is actually in some of this more breaks, and we should be taking these certain kinds of breaks. We should be taking breaks where we're moving rather than stationary. We should be taking them outside rather than inside. We know from the research that social beats solo in break taking, so take a break with somebody else. And we know the importance-- this is urgent-- of full detachment. So when you take a break, leave your phone behind. Don't talk about work. So if you were to start a regimen where twice an afternoon-- once an afternoon-- you took a 10 or 15 minute break outside, take a walk outside with someone you like, leaving your phone behind and talking about something other than work, I'm convinced it will be a performance booster. Now, another kind of break is a vigilance break. And so what you see in medicine is the following. So the stakes are a little bit higher. Stakes are a little bit higher if you're talking about life and death or human liberty. And there what you do-- and I write about this. Go to the University of Michigan Medical Center, and they're about to do a surgery in the afternoon. And before they even begin the surgery, they take a time out. And everybody-- the surgeon, the nurses, the anesthesiologists-- take a step back. They take a break, look at the checklist, go over everything again. They basically have a check on their vigilance. They don't go right in. So a way to mitigate a lot of that is a vigilance break for those high stakes kinds of encounters where before you begin, you take a step back. You go back and say, I know I'm not at my vigilance best right now. So what I want to do is I want to take a step back and actually go through a list and figure out, am I following the procedures? Am I doing everything I need to do to be as vigilant as possible? I actually think there's a good argument for judges doing that. Because I don't think it's simply a case-- I don't want to rely on a justice system that-- I don't want the justice system to hinge on whether the judge has a walk in the park. And so I think there's ways to do that. In fact, there are a lot of moves to actually-- for sentencing and those kinds of things-- to turn it into a sort of almost algorithmic sentencing. So there's a script that we use for that, but I think that vigilance breaks for judges would be a big deal. And so you could say something like, I'm about to make a decision here. Am I treating this like a comparable-- what have I done in comparable cases? What have I done for comparable kinds of things? And they take a step back and actually make sure they're being vigilant rather than just being a hostage of the diurnal patterns. Do we have one more, two more? AUDIENCE: I wonder if we have any similar problems with interviewing here or elsewhere. DANIEL PINK: Absolutely. There's absolutely no question about that. There's no question that there's going to be time of day bias introduced in anything like that. In interviewing-- no question. In reading college admissions files-- no question. Remember, axiomatic-- our cognitive abilities don't say the same throughout the day. Our mood doesn't stay the same throughout the day. Our decision making capacities don't stay the same throughout the day. So there are going to be-- now, you guys do multiple interviews with people. So your candidates will interview with multiple people. So you might be able to actually tease that out of the system by having enough variation so that-- OK, so every candidate's going to have some afternoon interviews, some evening interviews, some morning interviews. And so you might actually be able to even it out that way. There's no question there's going to be bias in any kind of human encounter based on time of day, period. AUDIENCE: So I actually had a question about when you should do fun things. When will you enjoy-- DANIEL PINK: Don't. AUDIENCE: --fun things more? DANIEL PINK: You won't. No, give me an example. AUDIENCE: Well, like socializing. Sometimes you feel like you have a better time with friends or sometimes you're more frustrated. What times are good to bond with friends or strangers more? DANIEL PINK: I think what you see is-- well, I don't want to recommend bonding with strangers in all cases-- just want to say that for the record. As a father, I don't-- you know. So if we look at the pattern of mood again, what you see is there's some chicken and egg effect here. So remember-- peak, trough, recovery. And in the evenings, our mood is-- for the 80% of us who have that more traditional kind of pattern-- our moods in the evenings are actually pretty good. And so it's a little chicken and egg, and it's hard to disentangle. Our moods could be good because we're more likely to socialize, but it could also be that we're more likely to socialize because our moods are good. I think that's the time to do it. But there's some really, really good research out there irrespective of timing on friendship and what are the elements of maintaining friendships? And I can't think of the name of the book, but what it shows is that making and maintaining friendships is actually much harder than we realized. It requires two things that we're often not comfortable with. Number one-- it requires a significant amount of time. There's no instant-- you have to put in the time if you really want to have an enduring friendship. The other thing-- which is a reason why men often don't have as many or as rich friendships as women talking about broad populations-- is that the research on friendship-- you've got to devote the time to it. The second thing is the importance of self-disclosure. Self-disclosure ends up being this incredible bonding agent for friendships. I mean, I hate self-disclosure, and that's why I have no friends. To answer your question directly, mood is better in the evening. That's probably a good time. And there's a huge amount of research on the importance of friendships and relationships to our overall well being. The challenge, as I said, is that it requires devoting time. It really does. And it requires self-disclosure, and that's something that a lot of us, myself included, are a little bit leery of. Let's take one more, and then we'll wrap up. AUDIENCE: This is going to sound like a joke question, but where does coffee play into all of this? DANIEL PINK: That's not a joke question. That's a very serious question. AUDIENCE: Does it change those energy patterns? If you have an important meeting with someone, how smart is it to say, it should be a coffee meeting. Because then you can ensure everybody's energy levels will be spiked. DANIEL PINK: There's going to be some individual variation on that, but the positive benefits of caffeine up to a certain limit-- I mean, not going crazy-- are very high. And so what you also have-- just remember, it takes a certain amount of time for the caffeine to get into the bloodstream. If you and I sit down and begin to have a cup of coffee, the caffeine's not going to hit our bloodstream for 25 minutes. It depends on how long our meeting's going to be. So what it could be is that you and I have a crappy meeting, and then my meeting with this guy a half hour later is awesome thanks to you. The effects of caffeine, obviously, are ephemeral. There are two caffeine tips that are in the book. One of them is this. You're better off not having caffeine immediately when you wake up-- immediately when you wake up. When we wake up we begin producing cortisol. It's a stress hormone. That's how we wake up in some ways. We have this hormone coming. Wake up, wake up, wake up. So we start producing this stress hormone of cortisol. Our cortisol levels rise as we wake up, and caffeine actually can inhibit the production of cortisol. And so if you have coffee when you first wake up, you're really not gaining much. What you're better off doing is waiting about an hour after you wake up when your cortisol levels begin to drop and then hit it with the caffeine. That's something that I've tried. That's something that I've tried to do. There are other people who I'm convinced have basically a conditioned psychological response to coffee first thing in the morning. That is, you could probably switch out decaf. And what they're responding to is not the caffeine, but they're responding to the ritual. I'm convinced of that. Now, another good use of caffeine is the following. Do you guys have nap pods here? OK. So anybody ever use them? No. All right. So here's how to use it. Here's how to take the ideal nap. Here's what you do. The ideal nap it turns out is very, very short-- between 10 and 20 minutes long-- much shorter than I would have expected. 10 and 20 minutes is the ideal length nap-- gets you that restoration without what's called sleep inertia, which is that groggy, boggy feeling that you get when you take a nap. So the ideal nap-- what I do in my office is this. I sit in a chair in my office. I will put on noise canceling headphones. I'll set my timer on my phone for 25 minutes, and I can usually fall asleep in about 10 or 12 minutes. And so that gives me a 14, 15 minute nap, which is ideal, because the alarm goes off after 25 minutes. But before I turn on the timer or close my eyes, I down a cup of coffee before the nap. And so what happens is the following. I wake up with that ideal short nap restored, but it takes 25 minutes for the caffeine to get into my bloodstream. So when I'm waking up, I get hit with that second boost of caffeine. And it's something called a "nappuccino." There are actually several papers on this showing its efficacy believe it or not. You had a question here in the front row? AUDIENCE: My question was, it all seems like the topic-- I'll reflect back what you just said-- is the "when" depends on freshness of mind. Is there any other major causal factor of to when? DANIEL PINK: Oh, absolutely. Yeah. So that's a great question. So some of it is on the judges-- this is speculation in the judges research. Some of it has to do with-- it could be with glucose levels. Another big factor, especially in physical stuff, is body temperature. Body temperature has a surprisingly large role in our-- not surprising-- in our physical performance. So this is one reason why if you're deciding whether to exercise-- what time of day to exercise-- there are virtues of morning exercise big time. It's better for habit formation, better for weight loss. There are virtues for afternoon and evening exercise, too. Because around 4:00 to 7:00 or so, our body temperature is at its highest. So afternoon exercise-- you're less likely to get injured. Fewer injuries then. Afternoon exercise-- people find it less effortful, and so that can aid in habit formation. And actually, our performance is better, too. Hand-eye coordination improves, so coming here at 6:00 would be amazing. Hand-eye coordination improves, lung function improves, speed improves. So there's actually a disproportionate number of records and speed events that were set between 4:00 PM and 7:00 PM local time. So body temperature really surprised me as a driver behind that. Our bodies and brains are very complex systems, so some of it's hormonal. Some of it is body temperature. Some of it is purely cognitive. Some of it is neurochemical. I mean, these are exquisitely complex systems, so it's hard to disentangle what exactly every causal agent is. Let's go one more, then we'll wrap up-- back in the left field bleachers or right field bleachers. AUDIENCE: We've talked a lot about time of day, but how about time of year? One question is, have you studied optimal time of year to take a vacation for a company's maximum productivity? I know some people kind of scatter out their vacation days. Some people save them for holidays. Based on your research, I assume if you're most productive at the start of a quarter, start of the year, then maybe it would be middle of a quarter. DANIEL PINK: Part of the question is just observing your own behavior and seeing what works for you. I don't write about this in the book, but did I have looked at the research on vacations for something else. The restorative effects of vacations are significant. They're very fleeting. It's sad. They really don't last for that long. And so there's an argument for taking more shorter ones than some longer ones. It's going to depend, OK? There's so many variables in there. It depends on your family situation. It depends on maybe where you are in your career. It depends on all kinds of things. But vacations have a positive effect on restoring mood, focus, clear thinking, but the effects are shockingly short-lived. I mean, it's really sad how short-lived those things can be. As for time of year, there's something to be said for taking a vacation or taking some kind of break or something like that at a midpoint of a year, because midpoints have this effect on getting our attention and galvanizing us. Here the design principles are less distinct and clear. I think you have to experiment a little bit with yourself. But I do think that there's a solid argument for fewer, shorter vacations just because the effects of the vacation are so ephemeral. Let me just say one more thing. So tell me your first name. AUDIENCE: David. DANIEL PINK: David? So David's question is actually a good way to end in that what David's talking about are two things that are really, really important in this overall body of work. One of them is asking the right questions and observing our own behavior, which I mentioned before. The other one is being intentional. And one of the things that we don't do a very good job of-- especially when it comes to temporal things-- is being intentional. And so if you look at today-- anybody here have a to-do list? That's intentionality right there. You're being very intentional about what you're going to do. We're intentional about what we're going to do. We're intentional about who we're going to do it. So we have at Google rounds of interviews. We're intentional about how we do things. But when it comes to when we do things, we're not intentional at all. You see it in meetings. How do we schedule meetings? We use only one criterion. What criterion do we use in scheduling meetings? Availability. Are the people available, the room available? We don't say, what kind of work are we doing? Are they morning people doing this thing? Are they afternoon people doing this thing? Is it a purely administrative? We don't think about that. It's all about availability. We're not intentional about that. So if we observe our own behavior and are intentional and we recognize that we are temporal creatures in a temporal world, I really think that it can be a big boost to your overall well being and a big boost to your productivity and creativity. Thank you. [APPLAUSE]
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Channel: Talks at Google
Views: 83,813
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Keywords: talks at google, ted talks, inspirational talks, educational talks, When The Scientific Secrets of Perfect Timing, Daniel H. Pink, decision making, the science of timing, perfect timing
Id: zUhnzxrNpCc
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Length: 59min 12sec (3552 seconds)
Published: Wed May 09 2018
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