When we had our fields, we used to go there and play with our friends. We used to have a lot of fun there. Then the river came and washed everything away. Over the last century, floods have become the most
common and deadly natural disaster on the planet. The Ghagra River takes everything. Our village had no warning. It would help if we were notified but we get nothing. Many countries currently lack effective
early warning systems and alerts. 20 percent of flood fatalities occur in India. WHEN RIVERS RISE [radio announcer in progress]
--see some of the highest rainfalls during the monsoon season. But this year, it has been exceptional. - One of the most important variables
during a crisis is reliable information. There's so much work
that's already been done, by governments, by the UN
and NGOs, and we're trying to learn from
that work, build on that, and assist them with their goals. In India, where we're running our
first pilot program, the government has thousands of people
who are measuring the water level in rivers across India, with what is effectively
very long measuring sticks, which are called stream gauges, every hour. Which allows them to know whether the river will overflow and flood. But it doesn't yet allow them
to understand exactly what areas
are going to be affected. What neighborhoods, or even
what villages. We received a warning from the head of the village in the morning, just a few hours before the flood hit. I wish I had known earlier. - The response time is
most crucial thing. Reducing the response time always plays
a very important and vital role in the whole disaster management framework. Advancement in technology would
help us better in spreading this message faster. - Flood forecasting was a very
exploratory project. The big technical question was, can we have enough information to try to do forecasting that
would be accurate enough to make a difference. Starting with the basic needs for
getting information about what's going on, where is it happening, what should I be doing? - To be able to provide a forecast
in real time, we rely on the government
we're working with. We complement their effort by adding accurate modeling
to that process. We start by collecting
thousands of satellite images to build a digital model
of the terrain. Based on these maps, we generate hundreds of thousands
of simulations of how the river could possibly behave. We receive the measurements
from the government, and cross those measurements
with our simulations. We can then send those forecasts
to individuals using Search, Maps, and
Android notifications. This is an example of an alert
that we can produce. This alert is for Pedana. This alert is actually--has
over 90 percent accuracy. The lead time is incredibly important. - Yeah.
- Even more than the specifics. - Any information we can give,
they will use. - Want to show them the alert? Talking to people who've directly
experienced severe floods, and understanding what they really need,
is incredibly important for us to know how
we can really help. This is an opportunity to collaborate
on a global scale. We are in a very exciting time, to use technology to try
to make a difference. I can't imagine a greater privilege than to do work we love,
which is develop technology, and do it in a way that
could actually help people directly
in a very profound way. Our hope for the future is to give people a few more days of warning
before a flood occurs. And to use AI to scale this,
and provide these forecasts anywhere in the world,
wherever people need them. The Crisis Response and Research team is exploring ways
to use AI to provide earlier warnings for other natural disasters including
fires and earthquake aftershocks.
