[“There are around 1022 stars in the universe, and
life came into existence here once and only once.” Upon reflection, this statement seems a little
unlikely. It’s no wonder then that through the ages, humanity has wondered at the idea of
alien life beyond planet Earth. Do aliens exist? Where are they? Are they like us? Would
we be able to find any common ground with them, or would they be completely alien to us?
What if I could tell you that I knew the answer? Before you ask; no, I’ve not been read in into any
covert men-in-black government programs that have been hiding the truth from the general population.
But neither are we simply reliant on our imaginations when it comes to alien life. There is
much that science can tell us, through discoveries and deductive reasoning, even though I assume
most of us have never met an alien in the flesh. So, are we alone in the
universe? It’s time to find out. I’m Alex McColgan, and you’re watching
Astrum. And in today’s supercut, I’m going to share with you everything I know about
alien life… Everything. Men-in-black be damned. When it comes to searching for alien life
out there, it pays to start with a very relevant question.] What do we mean by life?
Life on planet Earth comes in many shapes and sizes. From the tallest trees to the smallest
microbes, from spindly insects to birds or fish or humans, our planet is teeming with life.
We generally understand what we mean when we say “a living thing”. We might define
it by it moving around, or by it growing. Generally speaking, scientists define life as any
system that is capable of eating, metabolising, excreting, breathing, moving, growing, reproducing
and responding to external stimuli. Essentially, they are aware of their surroundings in
some way, they seek resources, they take those resources into themselves, and use them
to grow or create more of themselves. And then they get rid of any waste that’s left over. Ew.
Some forms of life are much more active than others, but even things like plants can
move to face the Sun, open their buds, or spread out their roots over time. So, we
look at these things and consider them living. Even on Earth, though, there are some systems like
viruses that push the boundary of what it means to be a living thing. Viruses are so simple, that
they lack the ability to reproduce by themselves, or to metabolise. Instead, they get cells
they infect to do that work for them. Are viruses alive? They certainly have proved
devastating to other populations of living things, and we can definitely think of
them that way. But it’s a debate that still rages on in the scientific community.
So, although there are certain qualities that are fairly universal for living things here
on earth, we must be careful about how we go about defining life. For instance, most living
things on Earth make use of water to function. It carries important nutrients around our
bodies, and is so vital for all life on Earth that we consider the absence of water to
be a serious red flag if another planet doesn’t have it. But if an alien was somehow able
to exist by pumping liquid methane through its body instead of water, would that stop
it from being a living thing? Probably not. So, let’s keep an open mind, but roughly
let’s define life as those things that seek out resources, grow and reproduce.
[Still, although it’s good to keep our starting definition general (just in case), we can actually
predict with some certainty what we expect to see when it comes to alien life. Scientists and
science fiction writers throughout the ages may have imagined all manner of living things;
from little grey men, to sentient rock monsters, and even aliens made out of pure energy. All
of these are possible – even that last one, which may sound speculative, but renowned
Astrophysicist] Neil deGrasse Tyson [did say] he wasn’t opposed to the idea. (clip).
[But not all of these are equally likely. How do we know? It’s all thanks to one
simple principle: Form follows Function.] As you look down at your own body, even if
you do not know what all of it does, you are an incredible example of optimisation. You likely
have two hands complete with fingers and opposable thumbs, ideal for grasping tools and performing
fiddly, delicate operations. You have a digestive system that is capable of taking in matter,
extracting nutrients, and using them to build up or repair yourself. You have legs for locomotion.
A brain for thinking. A heart that will on average pump 2.5 billion times across your lifetime
without breaking. All of these parts of your body perform specific functions, that have been
honed over millennia to be really good at what they do (even if you don’t feel it sometimes).
You are an example of form following function. Thanks to natural selection and random mutation,
nature is really good at figuring out what works. When Charles Darwin was voyaging through the
Galapagos Islands, he noticed that different finches had different shaped beaks. After
observing them for a time, Darwin noticed that the finches with larger, more heavy-set beaks ate
different types of food than finches with smaller, daintier beaks. In fact, a large beak was ideally
suited to breaking open tough seeds or nuts, while the smaller beaks were more suited to
getting in nooks and crannies for grabbing insects. This observation was the basis
for his well-known theory of evolution. In this theory, thanks to genetic variation and
competition, nature is constantly trying out new things to see what works. And there are certain
things that give you an edge. For instance, thanks to all the light that was bouncing around
from our Sun, organisms that evolved to take advantage of this by developing sight had a
big advantage over organisms that did not. They could find food better, or avoid predators,
or generally navigate their environment. So useful is sight, that nature did not just
come up with it once. We believe the eye evolved independently about 40 times over the course
of life on Earth. 40 different species that previously could not see evolved eyes.
This is called convergent evolution, and eyes are not the only example of it
happening. Bats are not related to birds, and yet both developed wings to fly. And speaking
of bats, both bats and dolphins independently evolved echolocation, to help them see in
environments where light was not so plentiful. Photosynthesis has arisen dozens of times. Koalas
have almost identical fingerprints to humans. This happens because there are some selective
pressures that are simply universal. Everything that lives needs to gain nutrients, grow,
and reproduce, and as a result, like a plant bending its roots around rocks to find softer
soil, nature is good at figuring out the best way of getting what it needs. Because of the
prevalence of light, eyes are just a good idea. And when something works, nature
sometimes comes up with it more than once. This means that on planets that are similar
to our own, it’s entirely possible that evolution would end up going a similar way.
Although hypothetical aliens on other planets might not look exactly like us, they might look
surprisingly similar. I always thought that it looked silly that so many aliens in sci-fi films
were humanoid, but perhaps this is more than just a way of easing pressure on the film’s costume
department. Convergent evolution says this might actually happen. If it worked with us, maybe
it just works generally. Any alien that made it to the stars would need to have the ability to
work tools. So, fingers, or something similar, would be a likely addition to an alien race. Large
heads filled with complex brains for analysis and problem-solving would also be a benefit. The
human brain is the most complex of any animal’s on earth, with 86 billion neurons. It’s not
so unreasonable that aliens would be the same. Thanks to our brains, it became less important
to keep ourselves warm with fur as we could craft clothes for ourselves, so aliens may not be
hairy or thick skinned if they are intelligent. Of course, this kind of logic might not
carry all the way, because life might not arise on a planet that’s exactly the same
as ours. If there are different selective pressures, different adaptations might occur.
For instance, on a planet with low gravity, plants and animals would be able to grow to be much
taller than on Earth. There would be less energy cost to lifting nutrients up through their bodies,
or pumping blood around (if aliens used those kinds of systems). While conversely, on a planet
with very high gravity, you’d likely see stockier, shorter, heavier-built aliens. Their bones would
need to be denser to support themselves in heavier gravity. Or possibly they would be aquatic,
as gravity is less of a problem in water. On a planet that is further out from its
star than ours, there would be less light, so an alien’s eyes might be bigger. Or maybe
aliens on such planets would rely on things like echolocation to see what is around
them. On planets with elliptical orbits, seasonal temperatures would vary much more wildly.
Perhaps on such planets you’d see an increase in the ability to hibernate, or even come back
from near death, such as tardigrades and their incredible ability to return to animation after
being in the harshest of environments like the depths of space. Temperature can also affect size,
such as in the depths of our oceans there occurs deep-sea gigantism, as large bodies can more
efficiently be kept warm, while in deserts small animals have a larger mass-to-surface-area ratio,
allowing them to disperse heat more effectively. On a planet with fewer magnetic fields, more
bombarded by cosmic radiation, perhaps life would have shorter life-spans, in much the same way as
around the heavily irradiated Chernobyl nuclear power-plant, dogs and other short-lived organisms
thrive, while longer-living humans suffer. In each case, form follows function. Life will
adapt to suit the conditions it finds itself in. Extremophiles are life forms that are able
to live in very hostile environments. There are lots of different kinds of extremophiles
that are well-adapted to different kinds of extreme conditions like very high or very low
temperatures, pressures, dryness, radiation, salinity, acidity, and heavy metals, or any
combination of those extreme conditions. These organisms span the globe, inhabiting the
harshest parts of our world. From sulfuric hot springs in Japan, to the Atacama desert in
Chile, to sewage treatment plants in Germany, and even a hypersaline deep lake in Antarctica .
What makes extremophiles so interesting is their unique biology. As you can imagine, living
in such extreme conditions kind of forces you to get creative. Extremophiles'
biochemistry and physiology are often modified in very clever ways to help them
adapt to their harsh environments. And this makes them an astrobiological goldmine.
You see, many extremophile habitats on Earth are surprisingly similar to the
conditions on other planetary bodies. These regions on Earth are called analogues,
and they can teach us a lot about where we might find life beyond our home planet.
For example, the Atacama desert in South America is a very arid environment, with
high salinity, high UV radiation levels, and oxidizing soil, just like Mars. In fact, we've
been studying it as an analogue to Mars for years. Life has been found across the Atacama desert,
but its presence is highly patchy. In a way, this is good news. It helps scientists
identify the exact factors that cause life to appear where it does, and therefore where
we might have the best chance to find it on Mars. Certain species of our haloarchaea are also
being studied as exciting astrobiological models. Specifically, Halobacterium NRC-1 and
Halobacterium lacusprofundi. They are both extremophiles that thrive in high salinity,
and are great candidates for understanding potential life on icy, salty moons like Europa.
[Through the study of extremophiles, we learn what is plausible for life out in the wider universe.
If life can exist in certain environmental analogues here on Earth, those same sorts of
environments plausibly contain life elsewhere. We also learn what’s less plausible. Life
here on Earth is diverse, and has adapted to all sorts of niches, but there are some places
even it cannot go. Bacteria such as Methanopyrus kandleri – one of our hardiest extremophiles –
can survive at temperatures of 122°C. But putting one into thousands-of-degrees lava would quickly
annihilate it, as the bonds that hold its chemical structures together would be torn apart by the
excessive energy. While tardigrades can survive the freezing cold of space, they’re not exactly
mobile there. They dry out and cease all activity, and only revive when brought back into
more suitable, energy-rich environments. So, if not all environments are equally likely
to foster life, what sorts of conditions are the most likely for enabling a fledgling alien
race to begin and thrive? And what conditions might put an end to an alien evolutionary
tree before it even had a chance to start?] When choosing [a nursery world for alien life],
just like with buying a house, it’s a good idea to start by establishing your non-negotiables.
Some of this is fairly simple to consider: for instance, temperature. You want a nice,
temperate climate, somewhere that’s not too warm, and not too hot. Given that temperature
drops the further you are from the Sun, every planetary system has a sweet spot where
the temperature of a planet is likely “just right” – not too hot, and not too cold – similar
to Goldilocks and her bowls of stolen porridge. As a rough rule of thumb if a planet is at the
right distance from a star, it may well have a suitable temperature for [aliens] to set up shop.
Of course, this is in no way a guarantee. After all, Venus - a planet residing in this zone -
in theory should be perfect, but its choking atmosphere makes it the hottest planet in our
solar system in spite of its relative distance from the Sun compared with Mercury. So it's
clear atmosphere also plays a part in all this. [Essential for life on Earth, and likely useful
for aliens too, is the presence of water on your prospective planet. Water comes with some
surprisingly handy chemical properties. It’s a solvent, allowing a wide array of molecules
to dissolve inside it and then be transported around an organism’s body. It’s important for
key chemical reactions. While it’s conceivably possible that alien organisms have learned to make
do with a less optimal liquid to form the basis of their own lifeblood, so important is water to
life on Earth that we don’t have a single example of an organism that’s learned to make do without
it. Remember, not all living things need oxygen, or sunlight, or particular kinds of food -
but everything needs water. And in all of evolutionary history when organisms adapted
themselves into every niche imaginable, not a single one figured out how to do without
it. Water could well be a non-negotiable.] However, sometimes a non-negotiable is simply the
neighbours that live close by. So, let’s consider [another] major reason why [many of] the galaxy’s
exoplanets fall short – their neighbouring stars. Our own star is known as a G-type yellow dwarf, a
relatively fast-burning, short-lived sort of star, at least compared to some of the other options
out there. Stars like our Sun tend to live for 10 billion years before their cores collapse and
they transform into a red giant. It is stable, and that stability has been useful for the
life that eventually flourished here. However, yellow dwarfs are far from common in the Milky Way
– they represent only 10% of the total stars. Far more common in occurrence are the longer-lived
red dwarfs, which make up 75% of the stars in our galaxy, and can live for around 14 trillion
years, longer than our universe has existed. And unfortunately for the planets orbiting
them, red dwarfs come with numerous drawbacks. For starters, red dwarfs have a much closer
goldilocks zone compared to their yellow cousins. They burn less brightly – with luminosities
between 10% and a measly 0.0125% that of our Sun’s – so unless [aliens] live on a world
shrouded in perpetual night (which sounds cold and depressing to me, and will make [getting
energy from sunlight] a bit of a challenge), [an alien world would probably need] to be
a lot nearer to its red dwarf to compensate. This wouldn’t be in and of itself a
problem, if it weren’t for the second characteristic of red dwarfs that make them
very unpleasant neighbours – their instability. Our Sun is the main source of our space weather.
It shoots out a frequent stream of solar winds, flares, and coronal mass ejections. However,
this doesn’t compare to the amount of space weather created by red dwarfs. Flares from red
dwarfs can be 100 to 1000 times more powerful than those emitted by our Sun. The frequent bursts
of plasma and radiation coming from red dwarfs are powerful and dangerous enough to strip away the
atmosphere, and even boil liquid water on planets in the habitable zone. And given how much closer
planets are to their star in a red dwarf system, the odds of life getting enough time to arise
before being hit with a life-sanitising dose of x-rays is pretty slim. If you want
to live on a planet around a red dwarf, you’ll likely need some serious sun-cream.
This rules out many exoplanets, such as astronomer favourite Kepler 186 f, which
some scientists hoped might be habitable. But even during periods between harsh
solar weather events, there’s another problem with planets around red dwarfs
– their tendency to be tidally locked. Being tidally locked means that the same side of
the planet always faces the star as it orbits. There is no rotation between day and night –
one side of the planet is in perpetual heat, and the other side is in permanent shadow.
Due to gravitational constraints, planets near their sun have a tendency towards being
tidally locked – just take a look at Mercury, with its days that last 176 Earth-days,
or 2 Mercurian years. This lack of rotation could render most of the planet
uninhabitable – you’d either face scorching, desert-creating heat on the day side,
or freezing ice on the night side. Even if [aliens] tried to live in the narrow
band of twilight that would ring a tidally locked planet, liquid water might prove difficult
to find. Any moisture in the air that found its way to the night side of the planet would
get locked there, solidified as ice. Overall, the planet would be very dry; and even in
the twilight zone, there would be no rain. [But the real clincher is] the low power
of a magnetic field that would likely be found on a tidally locked planet. The dynamo
effect that powers the magnetic field on Earth is thought to be influenced by the Coriolis
effect – the rotation of the Earth imparting momentum to rising and falling liquid metal in
its core. Without this rotation, such a magnetic field would be inevitably weaker, [once again
subjecting you to that lethal space radiation. So, we can conclude that if alien life
exists, it probably is going to come into being around stars much like our own due
to their stability and brightness. It’ll be on a world that’s not too hot or too cold,
probably has some liquid water, and likely is surrounded by a protective magnetic field to
shield that life from deadly space radiation. We don’t have to look out across the
stars to try to find such an environment, but can actually begin our search for
alien life much closer to home; here, in our own solar system. It may seem a little
obvious, but life has birthed here once already. Could it have done so again?
Well, not everywhere here is hospitable.] Mercury does not tick many boxes
in regards to what would be needed for life to form. It has a very tenuous atmosphere, and
is far too close to the Sun. This combination means that temperatures on the day side rise to
over 400c, and the night side can drop as low as minus 170c. It has been discovered that Mercury
was geologically active in the past, but the last eruption was thought to be one billion years ago.
Many extinction events would have happened during Mercury’s history that would most likely have
prevented life from getting anywhere. There is water ice to be found in the permanently dark
craters around the planet’s poles, but we theorise that only liquid water can support life. Mercury
seems to be a dead, inactive and sterile planet. The next place to visit is Venus. Venus does have
a rather substantial atmosphere, but the problem is that it still isn’t quite far enough away
from the Sun to be in the “goldilocks zone”, [although it’s kind of right on the border of it].
On Venus’ surface, it is even hotter than Mercury, well over 400c all over the planet. This is
due to the greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere, carbon dioxide making up 96% of it. This
heat means that water could not stay in liquid form on the surface. There is a slight
possibility, however, that there could be some form of microorganisms high in the clouds of
Venus that would use UV light from the Sun as an energy source. The temperature and pressure
high in the atmosphere is much more hospitable than on the surface, so this possibility exists.
[Indeed, scientists have even detected phosphine in Venus’ atmosphere. Phosphine is a gas that’s
only produced on Earth by microorganisms in a very low-oxygen environment. Either there’s
an unknown process on Venus that’s doing a similar thing, or it’s an indicator that similar
microorganisms could be found there. Intriguing! [We’re skipping Earth, for obvious reasons.
Yes, life is here, but let’s for now not get into the debate about whether any of it is alien…
although perhaps we’ll return to that idea later.] Moving on, one of the best bets in the solar
system is Mars. It is situated nicely in the goldilocks zone, and has an atmosphere. The big
problem with Mars though is its lack of a magnetic field. The magnetic field on Earth prevents
the solar wind from the Sun stripping away the particles in the upper atmosphere. Because
Mars doesn’t have this, its atmosphere has been stripped of all but the heaviest molecules,
[meaning it now consists] of 96% carbon dioxide. At one point in its history it did have surface
water, as can be evidenced by dried up rivers and lake beds. However, today that water has gone
and if there was any life on the surface, this has most likely gone too. Scientists have been keen
to find evidence in rocks with the Viking missions and looking for methane in the atmosphere with the
rovers currently on the planet, but they have so far found only traces of evidence. But NASA are
not deterred, finding solid evidence of life on Mars is now one of their primary objectives, so
they clearly think there is still a good chance of finding something. There are a few tell-tale
signs that life could have existed or still does on Mars. There are possible bio signatures like
methane in the atmosphere, often the by-product of life. Scientists can’t quite agree on where
the quantity of methane gas comes from, and life is a definite possibility. We also have 34
meteorites which originated from Mars. These are highly valuable as they are the only samples from
Mars that we possess. A few of these meteorites even contain what looks to be fossilised bacteria,
although they are much smaller formations than any terrestrial bacteria on Earth. This is not
conclusive evidence however, as even these formations can be explained by natural processes.
At this point in time, there are a couple of possible places to find life on Mars. One would
be about 10 meters under the surface. Water can be in liquid form this far down, and any life
would be much more protected from cosmic and UV radiation. Another theory is that microorganisms
could exist under the polar ice caps. Potential evidence of this could be the darkening of these
spider patterns next to geysers on the poles. The darkening could be these microorganisms, as they
photosynthesize the Sun's UV light from under the surface. With all the attention Mars is getting
from the global scientific community, I would guess we will know conclusively whether or not
there is life on Mars within the next 30 years. The first planet after Mars is Jupiter.
Jupiter itself is not at all hospitable to life [as] we know it. It barely has any form
of water, it doesn’t have a solid surface, and the winds and convection forces on the
planet would drag down any microorganisms that tried to form in the tops of the cloud layer. The
deeper you go into Jupiter, the more the pressure and heat increases. The chances are very slim
that life could exist here in these extremes. However, Jupiter has some moons
where the conditions are much better. The biggest of Jupiter’s moons, called
the Galilean moons, are big enough to have differentiated interiors. Smaller moons and
asteroids tend to just be the same throughout, like a rock. However bigger moons will often have
layers and cores. The second of Jupiter’s Galilean moons, Europa, is actually one of the most likely
places to find life in the whole solar system, but not on its surface. The crust of Europa looks
extremely unusual with these fault lines running all over. The crust is actually made of water
ice, and beneath this ice sheet is believed to be a liquid water ocean that spans the entire
moon. Evidence of this is can be seen through the rotation of the crust, which is thought to have
moved by up to 80°, very unlikely to have happened if the crust and core were solidly attached.
Another piece of evidence is something that has only just been confirmed in the old Galileo
spacecraft data. Galileo actually detected water plumes or geysers shooting water far into space
when it passed by the moon very closely. In 2016, the Hubble team suspected they might have
imaged water plumes shooting 200km into space, and this rediscovered Galileo data has confirmed
it. NASA considers the prospect of life here so intriguing that there will be a dedicated “Europa
Clipper” mission due to be launched in [October 2024]. The Europa Clipper will orbit Europa,
passing through the water plumes, sampling the water that is ejected. We are not expecting to
find fish blasted into space by these geysers, but the water samples will tell us what the
conditions are like under the crust, and if there really is a possibility of life down there. Future
robotic missions that aim to reach and traverse this ocean are still in the planning stages.
Interestingly, while Europa is the most likely place to habour life around Jupiter; it is not
the only moon that probably has an underground liquid ocean layer. Three out of the four biggest
moons of Jupiter, Europa, Callisto and Ganymede all could have life under their surfaces. Callisto
may have a water or ice layer up to 300km thick. Ganymede has at least one water ocean layer,
but could also have several, all separated by sheets of ice. Ganymede is probably the
second most promising moon of Jupiter, as the bottom most water layer could be touching
rock. Water/rock contact could be an important factor for life to exist as the rock provides
minerals [– just consider the deep-sea ecosystems that have formed around oceanic hydrothermal
vents, right here on Earth]. Ganymede is already the biggest moon in the solar system, but data
also suggests that its underground ocean could also be the largest. There is a European Space
Agency mission underway to Ganymede right now, known as JUICE, or the Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer,
which will be arriving at Jupiter in July 2031. Beyond Jupiter, there are three more planets
and their moons. Like Jupiter, the planets are very unlikely to contain life. However, some
of their moons also share the same characteristics with the moons of Jupiter. Particular moons of
note are Rhea, the second largest moon of Saturn, Titania, the largest moon of Uranus, Oberon, the
second largest moon of Uranus, and Triton, the largest moon of Neptune. The most exciting moon
with these characteristics though is Enceladus, a moon of Saturn. It has extremely active
geysers which spew 250kg of minerals and water into space per second at over 2,000kph. It
ejects so much material that it has formed a ring around Saturn called the E ring. Cassini,
a spacecraft that used to orbit Saturn, was able to pass through these water plumes, and
detected carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen and oxygen, all key components of life. There is definitely
heat being generated under the ice crust, as can be seen in this heat map. These are the tiger’s
stripes of Enceladus. The evidence of hydrothermal activity, water, and essential chemicals mean
that this tiny moon could be the most likely place in the whole solar system to find life.
Sadly, we are far from proving any of this. [While there are some plans to return to Enceladus, these
are a long way from launch,] and [the orbiters set to explore Jupiter’s Icy Moons from above have
not yet arrived]. Actually exploring the oceans is still a [very] long way off. I can understand the
problem though of getting a robot that deep into a moon, but it’s a little disheartening to think we
[don’t even have a timeline for such a mission]. Beyond the planets and their moons, we have
dwarf planets like Pluto, Eris and Sedna. If they follow the patterns we see in the larger
moons, they too could have liquid water oceans under their surface. But we are very far
away from being able to prove that too. There are just two more curious places to look for
life in the solar system. The first is Titan, the largest moon of Saturn. It is extremely cold, and
so is dismissed by some as uninhabitable. However, it is unusual from any other moon in the solar
system in that is has a thick atmosphere with methane in it. In fact, the temperature is just
right that liquid methane can form on the surface. The moon actually has a methane cycle similar to
Earth’s water cycle. There is evidence of seas, lakes, and rivers of methane and ethane on the
surface of Titan. Other factors essential to life also exist there, including chemicals and
minerals on the surface, plus the moon orbits mostly within Saturn’s magnetic field, which means
it is protected from solar and cosmic radiation. Theoretically, lifeforms could exist that replace
water with liquid hydrocarbons. Such hypothetical creatures would take in H2 in place of O2, react
it with acetylene instead of glucose, and produce methane instead of carbon dioxide. Titan has been
compared to primordial Earth. [Excitingly, NASA is launching a robotic rotorcraft to Titan, set to
blast off in 2028. If it flies above the methane lakes and spots something splashing around there,
perhaps we’ll have a definitive answer to the question of alien life sooner than we thought.]
The last place to look in the solar system for life is on comets. A long standing
theory is that life has propagated through the galaxy on the backs of comets,
although it is quite an outside possibility. Numerous missions have been conducted [to comets],
which have studied [them] closely. Some of these missions, like ESA’s Rosetta mission, rather
surprisingly found complex organic compounds on the comets surface. Compounds like nucleic and
amino acids, which are the building blocks of DNA and life. However, none of these missions
had dedicated instruments which were able to detect life, meaning we still don’t know
definitively if there are alien microbes to be found on comets. I should note though, that while
complex organic compounds are a fascinating find, there is still a massive gulf between organic
compounds and even the simplest of life forms. Scientists just don’t think that a comet or
asteroid can provide the environment needed for life as we know it to develop, for instance,
no atmosphere, no liquid water, no protection from the Sun. [Perhaps comets could be the universe’s
taxi service for alien life, but it seems unlikely that they’re a place life could start.
Inhospitable locations aside, there are places in the Solar System where life could have formed
beyond Earth. But at this stage, we have no proof that life did form in any of them.
Does beyond the Solar System give us any more room to hope?
To answer that, it’s time we talked about Kepler.] You may have heard many news stories about
all the thousands of exoplanets that have been discovered using the Kepler
telescope. [As of June 2023] Kepler has confirmed the existence of 2778 planets.
Now, we have not been able to actually image exoplanets in any kind of detail. In fact, this is
the clearest real image we have of an exoplanet, taken by ESO’s very large telescope. Which may
make you question: if this is the best image of an exoplanet we have, how can we discover exoplanets,
and how do we know life could be on one? To answer the first question, we have to have
a look at how Kepler worked. Kepler [was] a space probe which constantly monitored about
150,000 stars in a fixed field of view using its camera. The field of view [focused] on a
patch of sky near the constellation Cygnus. This is what Kepler [could] see. The data it
[collected was] sent to Earth and analysed to see if any stars [dimmed] periodically. You
see, the concept is that if a star’s planet [passed] in front of Kepler’s view, the star
[would] dim. If it [dimmed], for instance, once every 100 days, we [could] confirm that it
[was] a planet and it takes 100 days to orbit. Kepler [was] really good at finding exoplanets.
Before Kepler came into operation, these were the exoplanets we knew about. As you can
see, most of them are many times the size of Jupiter. Since Kepler came into operation,
we have discovered and confirmed the existence of thousands of exoplanets, with thousands more
still unconfirmed. Remember, these are planets which have been discovered in only this patch
of sky. There is still a lot more out there. Kepler’s [mission ended in October 2018]. However
the good news is that there is a new exoplanet finding spacecraft called TESS which [came into
operation a few months earlier] which [covers] an area in the sky 400 times larger than the Kepler
mission. It is expected that during its mission it will be able to find more than 20,000 exoplanets!
[In fact, based on what we’ve seen, scientists can hypothesise there are more than 100
billion exoplanets in the Milky way.] Using other telescopes, like Hubble, [ESO’s
telescopes, the Webb and the Nancy Grace Roman Space telescopes], these exoplanets can
be studied to find out their composition, particularly of their atmospheres. The way that is
done is again from the spectra of the exoplanet’s light. To give you an example of how this is done,
imagine white light shooting through a prism, producing what is actually a blend of colours
spanning from violet to red. Light from a star shooting through an atmosphere produces a similar
effect, except certain bands of light are not present. This indicates there is a certain
gas in the atmosphere that is absorbing the light in that wavelength, not allowing it to pass
through. The dips in this image shows what Earth’s spectrum looks like as sunlight passes through the
atmosphere. The dips show that oxygen is present, as well as water vapour, carbon dioxide and
methane. These gases all absorb the Sun’s light at these wavelengths. Looking at a section of
wavelengths and comparing them with other planets in the solar system, sulphur compounds can clearly
be seen on Venus, and methane on Neptune is apparent. This means that as we study exoplanets
in detail, and determine their spectra, we can search for atmospheres that resemble our own. If
it does, then the chances are that it could be a habitable world and also that it may already
harbour life. Inhabited planets, [particularly those home to intelligent life] could have
tell-tale signs of life like smog and pollution which would be seen in a planets spectrum.
So have any exoplanets like these been found? Well, out of the thousands of exoplanets that have
been discovered, [59] of them are thought to be rocky planets [that] sit in the “goldilocks” zone,
or the habitable zone of their respective stars. [Of course, this doesn’t mean that they’re
necessarily inhabited. We’d need a lot more evidence to be able to confirm that an
alien organism actually lived on one of these exoplanets for certain.
But fascinatingly, there is some evidence of that starting to come in.
Let’s talk more about biosignatures: Biosignatures are substances, signals or
patterns that could be a sign of biological activity. This could be something
as obvious and direct as a fossil, or something more subtle like the composition of
a planet's atmosphere. They are important because they indicate not only the potential presence
of life, but also its level of sophistication. There's no official classification system
for biosignatures, but it's useful to think about them falling into three categories -
gaseous, temporal, and surface signatures. Gaseous biosignatures are direct or indirect
products of metabolic activity. The most common manifestation of this is the composition of
the atmosphere. For example, the presence of haze could be an indirect byproduct of a
methane-rich world. This could tell us that a particular planet hosts microbial life similar to
what we had on Eearth over 2.5 billion years ago, before the Great Oxidation Event. It's similar
to the example we explored earlier of how having free oxygen in the atmosphere could be a
biosignature for photosynthesising life. Temporal biosignatures are time-bound
changes that can correlate with biosphere activity. For example, on Earth, the concentration
of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rises and falls with the seasons. Vegetation grows
in the spring, and decays in the autumn. This oscillation is way stronger in the northern
hemisphere than the southern hemisphere because it has more land mass. In theory, we can use this
kind of information to see where on an exoplanet life is most likely to be. However, nothing
is so black and white. Temporal biosignatures can be caused by abiotic factors, too.
I personally find surface biosignatures the most interesting. Basically, every planet reflects
some light from its star. Different materials on the surface of the planet will reflect different
combinations of wavelengths of that light. This results in a unique reflectance spectrum for
every material. Surface features like rocks, snow, water and soil can all be deduced from
reflectance spectra. Life can also influence the reflectance spectra of a planet. This
is an example of a surface biosignature. [In September of 2023, just a few months
ago at time of recording this video, the JWST provided a tantalising result – the
detection of a gaseous biosignature in an exoplanet’s atmosphere. Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is
a molecule that on Earth is only produced by life, mostly by phytoplankton in marine environments.
It was discovered by the Webb in the atmosphere of K2-18 b, an exoplanet with a hydrogen-rich
atmosphere that data suggests might be covered in an ocean. K2-18b is 124 light years away from us.
Scientists are not saying that this is alien life for certain. It’s still possible that the DMS
was produced by some natural process we’re not familiar with. But while that’s true, to
me this makes the whole subject a lot more worth investigating. It’s one thing to say
“aliens probably exist out there somewhere.” It’s another to say “aliens exist, and
it’s possible we might have seen them.” Perhaps we should take a step back. One of the
objections I have heard to the idea of discovering alien life is just how unlikely it sounds. Is
there any way of exploring how often scientists expect alien life to have arisen in our galaxy?
Yes. As it happens, there’s maths for that. And although so far we’ve focused on just
the most basic level of life – microbes, and simple organisms – some scientists have also
tried to tackle the next question after that: How likely is it that we’ll
find life that is intelligent?] Once an alien race has evolved to the
point where it has become intelligent, unless it came into being through some
weird mechanism we don’t understand, it probably did so through out-competing its
rivals and collecting resources for itself and its offspring. Civilisations made up of such
creatures will most likely also have a hunger for space and resources. Whether they gain these
things through clever diplomacy or aggression, it is most likely that they will want them. [As
we mentioned earlier, form follows function, and this applies to cultures and civilisations too].
This quest for expansion and seeking more and more energy and resources led soviet astrophysicist
Nikolai Kardashev in 1964 to propose the Kardashev scale for classifying the different kinds of
alien civilisations that might exist out there. He grouped civilisations into three kinds.
Type 1 civilisations can completely utilise the energy available on their planet. We have
not quite reached this point as a species, so we are roughly a 0.7 on Kardashev’s scale.
Type 2 completely utilise the energy available from their star, possibly by building a giant
mega-structure such as a Dyson sphere to capture and utilise all of its energy output.
Type 3 civilisations would be able to utilise the entire energy output of its galaxy. We have
seen no evidence of an alien civilisation such as this one, which is for the best, as
they would likely see us in the same way we see bacteria – mildly interesting, but
otherwise completely beneath their notice. Other scientists since Kardashev have proposed
further additions to this scale – type 4s that use all the energy in the universe, type 5s
that use all the energy in multiple universes, or even the enigmatic Type omega, capable of
utilising energy sources beyond even that, perhaps existing outside of time entirely. Such
a civilisation would essentially be gods. We would have no way of detecting them, because
nothing in this universe would exist except in the way they wanted it to, and we would have
nothing to compare their existence against. While this may seem like a bleak outlook for
humanity – if ever we come across another race, under this theory we would almost certainly end
up competing for resources in one way or another, or just getting steamrolled by a vastly higher
power – there actually are other possibilities for alien development too. After all, not all
humans are interested in expanding ever outwards. In fact, with the advent of the internet
and online cyberspace, more and more human interaction is taking place in virtual spaces.
Carl Sagan proposed a model that classifies alien races based on how many unique pieces
of information they collectively know. Although much harder for us to detect at a
distance, and admittedly hard to measure, this way of gauging advancement does not require
an alien race to infinitely expand. An intelligent race that started looking internally, or even one
that spent its entire conscious time in some kind of cyberspace could still learn more and more
about itself and the universe as a whole, while taking less and less space within that universe.
For the record, Carl Sagan’s scale is alphabetic, where we were at about a type J civilisation, as
we apparently knew 1013 bits of unique information in 1973. While I haven’t been able to find out
exactly how he worked out that figure (mention in the comments if you know), we are probably
further along this scale now, 50 years on. But as a comparison, a Z type civilisation would
need to know 1031 bits, more information than exists in the whole universe, so it’s unlikely
that such a race exists, at least not yet. While it’s true that we have not met an
alien civilisation, it is comforting to know that it’s entirely plausible there would be
something about them that we could understand, and even find relatable. Form follows function.
We as humans are the beings that think and gain mastery of our world. Perhaps one day, if we meet
another race that does the same things we do, rather than seeing something truly alien, it
perhaps will be like looking into a mirror. I’ll leave it to you to decide whether
that is a comforting thought or not. [But to get to that level of intelligence],
there are still a number of things that need to go right. [And if we are to also discover them in
the night sky, the odds get even less favourable.] To [recap, for them to even get started] they
would most likely need a star to orbit. As near as we can tell, life cannot exist without
energy. They would need a planet that suited them. They would [likely have competed]
with other organisms for limited resources, thus encouraging them to adapt and progress. In
time, they would need to develop problem-solving skills and intelligence as a way of gaining
those resources and out-competing their rivals. Their civilisation would then have to survive
without accidentally becoming extinct due to a freak meteor strike or earthquake or
global freezing. They would also have to not destroy themselves. They would have to invest in
technology, and would have to develop a level of technology that allowed them to reach out across
the universe. They’d also have to have a desire to talk to any potential neighbours as opposed
to being intensely isolationist, and finally would have to broadcast a signal out to us for
long enough that we would be able to spot them. All of this is by no means certain. However, as
was pointed out by astronomer and astrophysicist Frank Drake in the first SETI (Search for
Extraterrestrial Intelligence) meetings in 1961, all of this could be used to calculate
the probability of us finding alien life. He laid all this out in his famous Drake Equation:
This may look a little complicated, but its based on a very clever and logical idea. Using the
same logic that says you can figure out how many students are in a school by calculating how
many students were inducted into the school at the start of each year, and then multiplying that by
the number of years students studied for, Drake reasoned that the way of calculating the number of
civilisations in our galaxy whose electromagnetic emissions are detectable could be calculated,
provided you knew the rates at which all those other steps happened. Let’s break it down.
N is the number we’re looking for – how many alien races are out there for us to see or hear. This
will give us an idea of the odds of finding them. R* is the rate of formation of stars suitable for
the development of intelligent life, in number per year. Not all stars are very suitable for life
to develop, as some are too cold, or too hot, or generally too unstable. We need to know how
many are being born that could support life. fp is the fraction of those stars with planets.
ne is the number of those planets, per solar system, with atmospheres and material compositions
suitable for life. If they’re covered with lava, or are completely devoid of atmosphere
or water, it’s unlikely that life could form there, based on our own planet’s example.
fl is the fraction of how many of those planets that could support life actually do support life.
fi is the fraction of planets for which that life becomes intelligent
fc is the fraction of times that life advances enough technologically to
start sending out signals of their existence. And finally, L is the length of time
a civilisation exists, on average. If you combine all of these elements,
you could accurately predict how many alien civilisations we would be able
to see up in the night sky, right now. Of course, you might have noticed a drawback
with this equation. Some of these numbers are simply not known by us. But, where’s the fun
in not giving it a go anyway? By inputting the numbers that scientists currently believe to
be most likely, and by making a few assumptions of my own along the way, we will attempt
to solve the drake equation. If you think that any of my numbers seem unreasonable,
let me know in the comments down below! So, with that, let’s see how many
alien civilisations we might reasonably expect to see out in the night sky.
To begin with, we can input our values with reasonable certainty. Scientists looking
at the Milky Way galaxy can accurately predict how many stars form every year, as we have many
examples to draw from. Depending on who you ask, the number ranges from between 3 and 7.
Let’s say 5, at a conservative estimate. Fp is easy to solve too. Through recent
astronomical observations by the Kepler space telescope, it’s become apparent that
planets are very common in the [galaxy], with each star on average having one. So, let’s
set this number high as well – let’s say 90%. However, the number that we currently predict
is at a suitable distance from their stars, as well as having the ideal mix of elements that
would produce life similar to ours is much lower. Of the 100 billion planets in the [Milky Way
Galaxy], perhaps as few as 300 million fit into this category. Obviously, this does not account
for alien life that’s significantly different from us, but let’s discount them for the moment
as then this would be even harder to predict. This gives us a percentage chance of 0.3% - quite
a small chance that one of the planets in a solar system is suitable for life. So, 0.003 for ne.
So far, so substantiated by evidence. Here is where things get a little tricky. For
the number of times that life has arisen, we have only one example to draw on – life on
Earth. To date, we have not proved that life arose on Mars or Ganymede, for all the conjecture on
that front. So, we can take this estimate one of two ways. As near as we can tell from the fossil
record, as soon as the planet cooled down enough, life came into being, which might indicate a high
value for fl. Perhaps as high as a certainty [1]. But on the other hand, from what we know,
all life originated from a common ancestor. Which is to say, life formed on this planet from
non-biological matter exactly once, and has never risen up again since. Scientists have looked for
evidence of bacteria that might have independently come into being, but so far haven’t found any.
This may be a coincidence. Perhaps life did arise multiple times, but the life that arose first
was more advanced and so out-competed the newly formed simple bacteria into extinction. Still, it
means that life is either incredibly certain, or a million to one. Let’s go with the more pessimistic
number, and see where that takes us. fl = 0.0001% We encounter the same problem for the arising
of intelligence. There are numerous examples of animals displaying forms of intelligence. Octopi
can open jars and solve puzzles, and some birds and apes can use tools or even use sign language.
Perhaps this proves that given enough time, life always evolves into becoming more intelligent.
However, if we want to be strict about it, we could also accurately say that of all the
millions of species that have existed on the Earth, only 1 actually was intelligent enough
for our purposes. Us. Which makes the odds seem very low for it happening. Let’s once again
input our one million to one value for fi, again to just be pessimistic. [fi=0.0001%]
In terms of how many become technologically advanced enough to start communicating, I
think that this number is likely much higher. Although we only have one species to compare
to again, it’s worth noting that humans are unintentionally chatty with the universe, quite
by accident. Thanks to industry and transport, we are altering the chemical composition of
our atmosphere, which is something an alien race could detect, certain molecules in our
atmosphere are only there because they are man-made. We also send signals out into space
thanks to our radio signals and satellites. Sometimes we even send signals out into the stars
deliberately, such as the Arecibo message which was broadcast from Earth in 1974, and contained
information about human civilisation and history, expressly so any aliens that heard it could
learn about us. Although these signals would not travel far on the grand cosmological
scale of things before becoming dispersed and indistinguishable from background radiation,
we WOULD count as a communicating race. So, I’m going to predict this number as high. Let’s
say 70% of intelligent races reach this level. Finally, how long do civilisations survive?
For this number, we sadly do not even have a single example. We will not know how long
our race will survive until we all die out, by which point there will be no-one left to
write down the final figure. However, although there are numerous dangers that could end us as a
species, ranging from meteor-strikes, nuclear war, or even solar flares, the longer we are able
to survive, the more likely it is that we will go on surviving. This is because once humanity
spreads out, we become more and more resilient to a species-threatening catastrophe. If we are on
multiple planets, a comet hitting Earth would no longer threaten the survival of our species. If
we are in multiple solar systems, a solar flare would no longer be able to get all of us. Species
could in theory reach a sort of immortality level in this way, lasting for potentially billions of
years as long as they could get out of the danger range. Let’s be optimistic and use this figure.
What does that give us for the Drake Equation? Based on these assumptions,
our answer is… 0 in our galaxy. If civilisations lived for a trillion years (which
is longer than the universe has existed for), we’d still be at 0 for these values. Given
these odds, our chances of ever hearing from another civilisation is next to non-existent.
But that’s just the thing with this kind of estimate. If we instead assumed that life arising
was certain, and that intelligence arising was certain too, our final answer for even a 1000
year civilisation would no longer be 0. Instead, that comes to an answer of 9 in our galaxy. Nine
intelligent races, who might be up in the stars right now trying to communicate with us. And
if races routinely do make it to functional immortality to the point where their civilisations
last for a billion years, then we would see as many as 9,450,000 in our galaxy. Or more!
I know these are hypotheticals, but I find this very interesting. Putting the numbers through the
equation make it a bit more tangible, a bit more magical and exciting even. According to the Drake
equation, the sky could be completely silent, or absolutely teeming with alien life. If it
is the former, then we should probably prepare ourselves for a long, lonely existence. We
should learn to get along with each other, because we are all the life we are ever going
to see. There will be no aliens stopping by to say hello. [We also have an even greater
responsibility to preserve life here on Earth, as there likely won’t be any more to replace it.]
But if it’s the latter, [then space should be filled to bursting with alien races, getting
discovered all the time. So…] Where are they all? [This was the question first asked by
nobel-prize-winning physicist Enrico Fermi, in his famous “Fermi Paradox”. But as I’m about to
show you, there are actually numerous answers to this question ranging from the plausible, to the
fanciful, to the worrying, that all might account for why we might not have discovered aliens yet.]
Let’s start by addressing the elephant in the room. Maybe there’s no-one to see. If it was true
that it’s quite difficult for life to arise from non-living materials, or if it’s unlikely that
that life would go on to become intelligent as we have done, then it’s entirely possible that
there would be no ships or signals in the sky, simply because there are no aliens. We could
be the first ones to ever make it this far. All other planets could be desolate and empty.
It would then be our opportunity to spread out across the universe and discover all these empty
rocks, and the only life we’d ever encounter is whatever we brought with us from Earth.
While this is a perfectly reasonable possibility – there is no conclusive evidence to
prove it wrong – this is not the only explanation that exists for why the sky isn’t full of
signals. We should also be aware that we are constrained by a surprising natural limitation.
For us to discover or make contact with an alien civilisation, one of two things needs to happen.
Either we need to send a message out to an alien civilisation and then have them send a message
back to us, or the alien civilisation needs to have made the first overture, messaging us
directly. There are different ways of doing this – for instance, we might be sending
spaceships to each other, or we may be using unmanned probes – but there are significant
issues with doing anything other than messages. Sending a spaceship is a tricky business. At the
current speeds our spaceships are capable of, it will take potentially millions
of years for an astronaut to reach their destination. The Voyager 2 probe took
about 49 years to even leave our heliosphere. The nearest star is 4 light years away.
In other words, it would take over 81,000 years to get even there, or about 2,700 human
generations. And that’s assuming that we have aliens as our closest next-door neighbours.
Even if we make allowances for technology to improve, it takes colossal energy to accelerate
an object up to light speeds. Actually, it would take more energy than exists in the
universe, for reasons we won’t go into here. Mass just does not like to travel at those
speeds. So unless we or our alien friends are able to come up with some kind of workaround, most
likely the easiest way to communicate with other civilisations is to send them radio signals.
In fairness, it’s not implausible that this speed cap will one day be broken. Scientists have
hypothesised some [intriguing] things involving moving the space around you in warp bubbles rather
than by moving yourself directly. The speed of light limit only applies to movement within a
local area, so if it’s your local area that’s moving, you’re fine. We have actual examples of
this in nature around black holes, which I explore in one of my other videos [Black holes part 5].
But until that becomes a scientific reality, let’s just go with the fact that it’s much easier to
call than to visit in person. It’s significantly easier and cheaper to send light or radio waves
– as simple as turning on a sufficiently large lightbulb. So let’s assume that this is how
our first contact with aliens will occur. Even here, however, we hit a roadblock. Radio
signals and light are more than capable of travelling at relativistic speeds – it’s
called the speed of light for a reason, after all. However, that’s its limit – light
speed. 299 792 458 m / s. No signal can go faster than that, and this in turn limits
how far we are able to see through space. Any signal from us would need to travel out
across space before reaching alien life, and then even if they decided to respond
immediately, their response would need to travel all the way back. If they decided to respond.
Let’s imagine that happens, though. We only invented the radio in the mid 1890s, so we have
not really been able to do this for very long. As such, we would only be able to exchange
a message with aliens who lived at most 60 light years away from us – 60 years for a
signal sent out in 1900 to reach the alien civilisation, and 60 years for it to come back.
Our galaxy is roughly 100,000 light-years across, so the 60 light-year bubble we could
have communicated with is truly tiny. [So, another answer to Fermi is
that perhaps we’ve not existed long enough for aliens to message us back.]
In fairness, this limitation goes away if the aliens contact us first. After all, we are now
receiving light in the James Webb telescope that has been travelling for 13 billion years, from
nearly the beginning of the universe. If an alien civilization came into being around 2 billion
years ago, and they’ve kept existing since then, that means they now have a 2 billion light-year
bubble from which we could technically see them. A 10 billion-year-old civilization now has a 10
billion light-year bubble. But if they were 10 billion light years away and only 9 billion years
old, they would be completely invisible to us. [So, why haven’t we heard from these aliens
by now? Well, this line of thought may rest on a faulty assumption – that there haven’t
been any signals coming in from the stars. There have been signals. Although while
it’s a little speculative, perhaps we just didn’t recognise them for what they were.]
Obviously, when it comes to alien signals, there is some ambiguity as to what exactly
we are looking for. Aliens are, after all, alien. We are not quite sure what to expect
from them, as they will likely have evolved in conditions different to our own, and may well have
cultural outlooks that make perfect sense to them but are completely obscure to us. Their definition
of a good way to say hello to the universe might be very different from ours. Researchers looking
into possible signals from other planets have to remain very open-minded about what an
extra-terrestrial signal might look like. But that means such signals can get confused with
signals from natural sources that we simply do not understand yet. How can we tell the difference?
Let’s explore this with a fascinating example. In 1961, in their pursuit of evidence
for the existence of alien life, (which is worth noting because it opens
up the possibility of confirmation bias), researchers at Ohio State University finished work
on a specialised telescope called Big Ear. It was the size of three football pitches, and worked on
a similar basis to modern-day telescopes in that it captured signals using its large “mirror”
on one end, and bounced them through smaller “mirrors” on the other into two receivers in the
centre, where the results were then processed. You may notice that these capture dishes are just
wireframes, though, not true mirrors. This is because Big Ear was a radio telescope. It
wasn’t trying to see with visible light. The way Big Ear worked meant that it was more
limited in its motions than a telescope that could rotate in any direction. Big Ear could only tilt
its primary reflector up and down, which meant that it was somewhat limited to only listening
to a point in a narrow strip of space at any one time. This was cheaper and easier to design.
And the designers had an idea that would let them get around Big Ear’s limitations – they built
Big Ear at just the right orientation so that the rotation of the planet would be what turned it
left and right. With the Earth turning it one way, and with its tiltable reflector adjusting it
along the other axis, you could point Big Ear towards [almost] any point in the night sky if
you have enough patience. Quite a clever solution! Big Ear’s direction of attention would sweep
around the night sky in large, circular arcs, listening out to try to spot any unusual signals
that we did not have a natural explanation for. And sure enough, in 1977, Big Ear found something.
On the 15th of August, a 72-second-long pulse of radio waves came in that were 30 times more
powerful than anything Big Ear had heard before in the background chatter of the universe. It was
so out of the ordinary, that the researcher who found it wrote “Wow!” on the computer printout
when they saw it, giving it the historical name of the “Wow Signal”. It was incredibly uniform.
It rose in intensity, peaked, and then dropped back down again in a smooth motion, instead of the
erratic fluctuations you might have expected from cosmic radiation. This indicated that whatever
had made the sound was broadcasting consistently, kind of like the beam of a lighthouse sweeping out
across the stars, with us turning to look at it, and then turning away again.
Except, it wasn’t consistent. Due to Big Ear’s design, researchers had to wait
a few minutes before the second “ear” of Big ear moved to look at that particular patch
of space the Wow signal had come from. And when they got there, the signal had vanished.
Ever since then, despite checking back in from time to time, we have never heard another
Wow signal come from that region of space to this day. So, what was it? A fault in the
machinery of Big Ear? A passing comet that threw out a momentary burst of signals? Or
an alien civilisation trying to communicate? [We currently don’t know.]
Let’s take a look at another candidate. The somewhat mouthier SHGb02+14a.
When one of the first SETI experiments – project Ozma – was started in 1960 by Frank Drake, it
began on the basis that if alien life were to communicate with the rest of the universe, they
would do so at frequency 1420 MHz. The logic behind this was that this was the frequency
emitted commonly by Hydrogen, one of the most widespread elements in the universe. Aliens
looking to establish communication with other civilisations might use such a frequency as a
sort of common ground – a wavelength that probably holds a special significance to any race. This
might have been a leap of logic, but it certainly made SHGb02+14a of interest later. Because this
signal – let’s call it SHG for the rest of this video, for the lack of a punchier name – did
indeed broadcast at this exact wavelength. SHG was spotted on three separate occasions
in 2003, using the Arecibo telescope and the computational power of 5.2 million home computers
as part of the SETI@home initiative, a rather cool program that sadly is no longer running. SHG had
no obvious explanation for its origins in nature, and didn’t appear to be interference.
But it was also too weak to say for sure whether it was clearly technological or not.
On top of that, its location was peculiar. It came from a spot devoid of stars up
to 1000 light years away from Earth. And although it experienced drift, it did so
in a manner that made scientists suspicious. If a signal originates from a planet, then
there are a few things we might reasonably infer. A signal being broadcast from a planet
– either on the surface, or in orbit just above it – would likely experience some doppler
shift as it alternated from moving away from us, to coming towards us through the circular
path it was taking in space. There would also be moments where it dropped out of view
entirely as it moved behind the planet. While SHG did indeed experience fluctuation in
its signal frequency – ranging from 8 to 37 hertz per second – this would only come from a planet
that was rotating 40 times faster than Earth, which seemed high. It was also strange that
each time the signal was spotted again, no matter where it had been when it had last
been sighted, it always began at 1420MHz. The odds of you looking at an orbiting transmitter on
three separate occasions and each time spotting it starting off at the exact same location is
incredibly slim, which is what you’d need for this to make sense. [So, although this observation
pointed to it being more likely SHG was some kind of glitch in the technology, examples like
this one do leave a little room for ambiguity. For an example that might be aliens or might
just be a natural phenomenon, let’s look at] fast radio bursts. If an alien civilisation were
ever to be detected, it might not be intentional on their part. Powerful engines activating, or
beams firing, all might release bursts of energy that give away a galactic civilisation. Which
makes Fast Radio Bursts (or FRB’s) interesting. They are, just as the name suggests, very fast
bursts of radio waves. We have detected hundreds of these strange, millisecond-long bursts across
the sky. Scientists theorise that there might be thousands of them occurring every single day.
They have mostly been detected outside our galaxy, but one was detected within the Milky Way in
2020, so they’re not completely foreign to us. They seem to be coming from extremely powerful
magnetic fields. And as of yet, scientists have no clear idea about what their origin might be.
There are plenty of theories – perhaps they are emitted by neutron stars, or maybe black holes.
But there is no proof that puts any one theory over another – including that of alien technology.
[So, we might have already received alien signals, and simply didn’t recognise them.
There is of course a claim that takes this idea even further. Some individuals have
claimed that aliens have not just sent us signals, but have visited our planet directly, and
we still haven’t as a species recognised it.] Here, sadly, the evidence starts to get
questionable. There have been so many hoaxes, faked videos filmed on grainy, shaky cams, or
even genuine mistakes where natural phenomena or satellites are taken for UFOs, that many
people are now a little wary of entertaining such theories. There have even supposedly been
times when the US Government has deliberately, subtly propagated UFO conspiracy stories to
draw attention away from their real top-secret technological projects, like the stealth bomber.
All in all, ascribing extra-terrestrial origins to these phenomena is often factually
incorrect, and poor science. Just because we do not understand something does not mean we
should jump to the idea that it must be aliens… [Still, it only has to be proven once for our
entire world-view to be forever shaken. I also find it intriguing that so many governments
have started seriously exploring the topic of UFO’s in the last few years. In just the last
year, countries like America, Japan, and Mexico have held hearings on UAPs, or “Unidentified
Anomalous Phenomena”, with the intention of not cynically swatting away the topic, or having a
good chuckle, but as a serious attempt to address an issue congressmen are claiming to be a matter
of national security. Organisations like NASA are being tasked with coming up with explanations
for UAPs, and are seeking to collect more data on them. And so, if governments and scientists
are evaluating whether there’s actually some fire behind all the smoke, let’s take a moment to do
the same. Could it be that at least some UFOs are an alien civilisation’s efforts to visit us?]
The first UFO sighting in modern times was by an American businessman named Kenneth Arnold
in 1947. As he looked out across Mt. Rainer, Arnold claims he saw nine crescent shaped silver
objects travelling at several thousand km per hour through the air. He likened them to “saucers
skipping on water” in the way that they moved. He initially thought they might be secret military
jets, but later he and other witnesses of these crescent craft wondered if they might have been
extra-terrestrial in nature. The media picked up his turn of phrase about the saucers, and the
idea of “flying saucers” entered the national consciousness. Before long, other people
started reporting alleged UFO encounters. The US became enraptured with the idea of UFOs.
However, the US military did not take this idea quite so seriously. While initially they were
understandably alarmed at the report of unknown aircraft moving around in their airspace,
particularly coming right after World War II, the programs they set up to investigate UFOs were
eventually shut down in 1969. Project Blue Book, the last of these programs, collected 12,618 UFO
reports, but ultimately concluded that they were almost all misidentifications of natural phenomena
or just man-made aircraft. With such a damning report to go on, the US Government officially
pulled funding from the project, and investigation into UFO sightings officially ceased.
Partly as a result of project Blue Book’s findings, a certain degree of stigma became
associated with seeing a UFO. Anyone who claimed to have done so was often ridiculed or considered
crazy. It came down to a question of evidence. If aliens were real, and were visiting our
planet, where was the proof of their existence? Of course, to answer that, we need to define
what we consider to be reliable proof. Let’s imagine that a person came up to you
and claimed that they’d seen a silver disk shoot across the sky at a speed far faster
than any airplane was capable of. Would you consider a single person’s account to be
proof that he’d seen an alien spacecraft? Well, not necessarily. Human memory is unreliable. Even
if you trusted the character of the person in question enough to believe that they weren’t lying
to you, they might be misremembering details, or maybe had misjudged how fast the “spaceship”
they saw was going due to some optical phenomenon. “Ah,” they cry, “but I recorded it on film!”
You look, but unfortunately, the video they provide is grainy, and only gives you a blurry
glimpse of the spacecraft. Is that proof? Again, you might well be sceptical. Even if this
video is not a deliberate hoax (and it’s so easy to fake films these days), it could be a digital
artefact of some broken pixel in the camera. And it still could just be some natural or man-made
phenomenon neither of you had seen before. So, what would be a good proof of
alien spacecraft? Ideally, for me, I would like evidence that was seen by multiple,
trustworthy people – the more, the merrier. It would need to be recorded by multiple pieces of
hardware, to eliminate the risk of it just being glitchy technology. And it would have to evidence
characteristics that completely ruled out it being any man-made phenomenon or natural event. Best of
all, it would be repeatable. If it kept occurring, it would provide more opportunities
for study, to rule out other causes. Which brings us to the event that
started things all off again, in 2004, and the USS Nimitz. The Navy aircraft carrier
was travelling through the ocean near Southern California in November on a routine training
exercise. Another nearby vessel called the USS Princeton had recently received upgrades to
its radar, and had started noticing strange aircraft in the area. These crafts descended
from 80,000 feet to 20,000 in a blistering speed, before vanishing out of sight entirely or later
shooting back up again. After a few days of this, the Princeton called the Nimitz, asking them
to send someone to see what was going on. Two F/A-18F Super Hornet jets were
scrambled. Each jet had a weapons camera, but no weapons as this was only meant to be
a training exercise. Each jet had two pilots on board. Upon arriving at the scene, all four
pilots quickly spotted what they were looking for. A strange tic-tac shaped object was moving
weirdly, zipping back and forth above a frothy, boiling patch of water in the sea below
them. It had no visible means of propulsion. No wings. No rotors. It was about the
size of a jet, and a whitish colour. The object suddenly stopped its zig-zag.
It had seen them. It whipped around, and travelled up towards the jets, as if
it were intending to meet them in the air; but then rapidly accelerated away, faster
than anything the pilots had ever seen before. Baffled by what they’d witnessed,
the pilots returned to base, only for the radio operator to inform them that
they’d begun tracking the craft again – except, it was now over 60 km away. It had got there
in under a minute of leaving the pilot’s view. [To be clear, we have no jet or technology
that is even remotely capable of mimicking this. There is no natural phenomenon that we
know of that could do this. Whatever this was, it did things human technology can’t do.]
This was an object seen by 4 trained, professional pilots on the clock [who have
publicly spoken on what they saw under oath], aircraft cameras and modern, advanced ship-based
radar from one of the most technologically advanced nations in the world. This ticks many of
the boxes for good, reliable sources of evidence. This report was logged, and nothing else was
initially done with it. You might just point to this being a strange story, if it wasn’t for
this authenticated footage that we have of it, confirmed by the US government in
a Freedom of Information request. [To me, that’s what makes this story compelling.
When a lone individual sees a light in the sky, it’s easy to come up with any number
of explanations for what they saw, including the fact that they might be lying. But
when a government unambiguously claims that the event did indeed happen, and say they want to know
what it was, then the event probably did occur.] But the strangest thing about
this was that it kept happening. The phenomenon is currently repeating.
Navy and air force pilots were spotting strange objects in the sky so frequently,
some were claiming that it was almost a daily occurrence. Many were embarrassed to mention
what they’d seen, fearing ridicule. That said, it became so common that the Navy started handing
out cards to be kept in Navy pilot kneeboards in their cockpits about what to do in the event
of such a sighting. Between 2004 and 2021, 144 reports came in from Navy personnel of seeing
unidentified objects in the sky, 80 of them being observed by multiple sensors, 11 accounts of near
misses with jets, and only ever 1 being positively identified. Between 2021 and 2022, sensing that
there might be something to all this after all, the Navy began destigmatising reporting and
started actively encouraging its pilots to record what they saw. 247 new reports came in,
and an additional 119 incidents were reported to have happened in the past. Sure enough, that’s
1 almost every other day. In total, the number of unidentified objects had risen to 510.
So, what were these objects? Their natures, and probably their origins, varied.
Some behaved like drones, with the Navy detecting radio signals coming to and from them… only, they
stayed up in the air far longer than any drone on the market was capable of doing. Some were
more like aircraft, travelling in formations, exhibiting unheard of acceleration. Some could
both fly and submerge underwater, seemingly at will. Some acted like balloons, albeit with
unknown means of remaining up in the air, sometimes defying wind currents by remaining
completely motionless, or even moving against it. No doubt, of those 510, some will simply be
glitches in technology. This strange triangle in the sky is thought to not really be that shape.
Instead, the unique design of the night goggles is thought to be distorting the light from this
apparent drone, in a similar effect to lens glare, but uniquely tailored to this technology. However,
it’s still concerning that the Navy does not know what these “drones” were doing circling a US Navy
vessel while it did training exercises at night. The Navy started calling these objects
UAP’s, or Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, in the hopes of removing negative connotations
associated with UFOs, and this has changed again recently to Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena.
And while they do not want to assume that this is alien in origin they’re also not ruling it out.
They reported their findings in a congressional hearing on the 17th May 2021, and now are
regularly (and somewhat transparently) publishing reports for the general public about the ongoing
investigation, provided it doesn’t give away too much about classified sources or technologies they
are working on. Right now, they are attempting to simply collect as much data as possible,
knowing that it will lead to better science. And that right there is the biggest shift of
all. When you see the US government reaching out to the wider community to ask “What are
these things we keep seeing?” it certainly confirms that there is something to see.
[Of course, as a reminder, although it seems likely from our evaluations earlier that
alien life could well exist, we have no evidence that it does, and no proof that it’s here. It does
raise perhaps the most important question, though; a question that as we continue searching for
alien life out there, we really need to be asking. What do we do if we find it?
If alien life was ever proven to exist, and could come here, what would we do? If it was far
away, it would be fascinating for humanity – an answer to the question of whether we are alone.
But if alien life was found that was intelligent, and indeed more advanced than us, and knew about
us and had the means to interact with us, what then? Suddenly, this all becomes a bit more real.
Suddenly, we need to answer another vitally important question. What will
aliens do when they find us? Let’s consider.] We are the only instance of
life arising in the universe that we know of. The great human experiment of civilisation
has been going on for thousands of years, and has produced many different types of society
– socialist, capitalist, hunter-gatherer, nomadic, and theocratical, to name just a few. If we
want to understand the behaviour of alien civilisations, we need to consider societies.
We thus have quite a few ideas to compare when considering how aliens might behave.
[As we’ve not seen them in spite of looking, we know for a fact that either aliens do not
exist, or they are subtle about their existence. If they exist in our galaxy, they’re not flashy.
Even if aliens are visiting Earth – which is a big if – they are not making a big deal about it.
They are not building massive structures that might tip us off as to their existence, and
they are not flying over our cities shooting death beams or waving flags to say a friendly
hello. This allows us to conclude things. Broadly speaking,] let’s examine two great
extremes, and see how they might influence alien civilisation. These two extremes are
altruism, and aggression. Love and violence. We’ll start with violence.
While this may be a pessimistic starting point, it is sadly one we must consider, because as
human civilisation has developed throughout eras, different groups of humans have almost always
clashed violently. This ties into the evolutionary idea that competition always occurs when there are
more organisms than there are resources. Humans are organisms, and we need resources to live.
And so, all too often, war throughout the ages has been fought over resources. Agricultural land.
People, and all the labour power and industry they can produce. Oil. Gold. Even when a civilisation
develops space travel and reaches for the stars, this issue will still likely exist. After
all, we are nearly at the stars ourselves, and there certainly seems to be no shortage
of violent conflict amongst us today. So, with a sample size of exactly 1, we
have to at least consider the possibility that other alien races [if they exist]
are the same as us. Driven by a need for resources to support an ever-growing population.
Of course, when it comes to societies, there are even more reasons why clashes might occur. For
instance, religious or ideological differences. The cold war was largely fought between countries
that espoused different political ideologies, capitalism and communism, that threatened each
other. Alien civilisation might equally differ from us ideologically (in fact, it would be
surprising if they didn’t), and so it’s possible they might feel their ideology is threatened in
some way by ours. This could lead to conflict too. This is not even to mention the fact that
some cultures idolise violence itself, deeming themselves of worth only when they are
winning victories, such as Viking raiders or Spartan hoplites. Others seek to build empires,
recognising that it’s much easier to take wealth from others than it is to build it yourself.
All these reasons are perfectly plausible for an intelligent race that has mastered its
planet, outcompeted other lifeforms there, and likely feels good about doing so.
Survival feels good. We enjoy feeling strong. But if this leads to conflict, what might an alien
conflict look like? Technology raises the stakes. We currently lack the technology to move objects
to other solar systems. Given the vast distances throughout space, unless we intend to just throw
insulting messages at each other through the void, actual fighting cannot be achieved until we manage
to solve speed of light travel, and probably something faster than that. But it is possible
that one day we might get around this problem. And this instantly opens a dangerous possibility.
It is theoretically impossible to move something up to the speed of light, because of the
link between mass and energy. The more energy something has, the more “mass” it has, because
the two are linked, and thus the more energy you need to increase its speed further. This only
really is noticeable at relativistic speeds, but it does mean that you’d theoretically need
infinite energy to move mass up to the speed of light. But if you throw an asteroid-sized object
at a planet at near light speed, then all that energy gets released in one go. This kind of
strike can easily wipe out all life on a planet, and the people on it wouldn’t even see it coming.
Any intelligent race would be very aware of the impact potential of objects such as this. For us,
we only need to look at the dinosaurs. You don’t need nukes, or soldiers on the ground, to fight an
alien war. Just rocks thrown really, really fast. This opens up one possible answer to the Fermi
paradox. If alien civilisations exist, and any of them proved to be willing to do this, maybe the
other aliens realised that it was simply safer not to communicate. Letting another race know that
you are there would simply place a target on your back. After all, if you could both do this,
and they wouldn’t see it coming, could they really trust you not to strike first? They could see
us as a risk that they are not willing to take. Known as the Dark Forest theory, this possible
answer to the Fermi paradox says that the only aliens out there are silent simply because they
don’t wish to be on the possible receiving end of these kinds of planet-buster weapons. Like hunters
travelling cautiously through a dark forest, they are all either quiet, or dead. They
have been subject to this selective pressure. However, this is not the only plausible model of
behaviour that might still prevent us from seeing aliens. The second option is simply indifference:
With billions of years of history at play, it might not be the case that we are
on technological parity with all the other forms of life that might be out there.
Alien life might simply be so far beyond us, they regard us as dispassionately as we might an
ant. They might not be talking to us because we have nothing interesting to say. Why do you not
try to talk to the insects in your garden? The gap is too great. You understand what they want
perfectly, and they have no hope of understanding you. Communication would be frankly, pointless.
That said, life is [probably] rare in the universe. If they desire resources, and are that
far beyond us, they probably don’t need to mine our planet specifically. We may have value
as a curiosity, something to be left alone to flourish simply because they have decided we have
some value as a specimen in some kind of grand, cosmic zoo. And as any zookeeper will tell
you, the closer you can get an enclosure to look like an animal’s natural habitat,
the happier that animal normally is. While they may not care about us, perhaps they
do not wish to alarm us by stepping into our natural habitat. In fairness, this is a valid
line of reasoning. Humanity would likely find it very distressing to learn that we are
in fact not at the top of the food-chain, and that our very existence depends on the mild
indifference of a vastly superior alien race. Of course, if this was true, we would need to
be careful. In my home, I was perfectly willing to live and let live when I found ants in my
garden, but when ants came into my kitchen, I quickly got out the ant-killer. We
would do well not to provoke them. Both of these ideas about alien behaviour are
bleak, so you’ll be glad to know there is one alternative to hatred and indifference. And
in fact, it may prove to be the most realistic for higher-levels of society. Cooperation.
Cooperation exists within nature. Not all life competes. Packs of wolves can cooperate to
achieve their goals, protecting those within the group even as they attack those outside it. There
are giant super-colonies of ants that do this, working together and spanning entire countries,
each hill all considering themselves as part of the same colony. Aggressive to
those outside of it, but supportive and even self-sacrificing towards those within.
There are advantages to this, as we humans are well aware. We would not have gotten anywhere
if we hadn’t learned how to work together. Knowledge pooled allows the creation of all kinds
of technology. Ironically, no-one really knows how to build a computer from scratch. But there are
some people who know how to build a motherboard, other people who know how to build a screen,
and other people that know how to mine the resources. And all these people know that the
other people exists, and so can work together. Historically speaking, there is compelling
evidence that as time has gone on, we humans have become better at this kind of cooperative
thinking too. It used to be that groups of humans were localised into small tribes, fighting other
small tribes. However, that’s elevated to small kingdoms, then big ones, then whole countries
and alliances spanning across national borders. Following that to its natural conclusion, at some
point, a nation may exist that all humans in the world feel a part of. A unified planet Earth.
But why is this a more likely outcome than violence? Simply put, technology forces it. Not
only do we remove barriers to communication the more advanced our communication gets, but as
our ability to destroy ourselves increases, there simply isn’t an alternative except
learning how to get along. Other than total annihilation, of course, but that’s a pretty
unappealing alternative... one would hope. And so, it’s possible that aliens
developed the same way. If they did, how might they behave towards the universe at large?
While they might still be aggressive to outsiders initially, ultimately, they may have attempted
to take this to the next level, embracing new alien races as brothers and sisters, part of a
great galactic whole. It’s just a continuation of the trend. With potentially millions of years
of history drilling the dangers of violence into them, they may actually abhor fighting, and there
may be millions of aliens of many different races, all cooperating peacefully under one banner.
Then, why don’t we see them? Well, perhaps they prefer to let us learn our own
historical lessons about the value of cooperation before speaking to us. An aggressive race would
not benefit the galactic community as a whole, so until we learn to get along, advanced alien races
might not want to share with us their ideas and technology. Particularly if such toys could then
be used by us as weapons. Perhaps they believe that we will either figure out how to get along,
or else we’ll wipe ourselves out. Either way, in the meantime it is better they stay hands-off.
As any parent will tell you, sometimes telling a child something is not enough for a
lesson to sink in. Sometimes experience is the only effective teacher.
There might be a galactic community out there, just waiting to welcome us.
[So, what is the point I’ve been trying to make with all this? I hope that over the course of
this exploration of alien life you’ve seen that, while we’ve not found aliens definitively,
there is a high chance that alien life is out there somewhere. As such, as long as humans
continue to exist, it’s not just possible that it’ll find us or we’ll find it; it’s almost
certain. It could have already happened. It could happen tomorrow, or a million years from
now. But whenever it happens, we will be forced to make a choice about how we wish to proceed.
We hope that alien life will treat us well. We hope that we can share knowledge and discoveries,
and will come to enter into an era of peace, prosperity, and mutual respect and cooperation.
However, if this exploration on alien life has taught me anything, it’s that much of the hunt
for alien life starts by taking a look in the mirror. Aliens could be a lot like us. And the
day may one day come when we are the ones flying our spacecraft down into the atmosphere of an
alien world, while indigenous life forms look up at us in awe and fear. So, what will we do then?
Perhaps we would do well to think carefully about that interaction. Because if in that moment
we decide as humanity to exploit and control, or even exterminate, then more alien eyes could
be watching from the stars and judging us for our actions. They may one day be assessing us, whether
we are a species they feel they can work with. And they could be much more powerful than us.
I believe that we will find living alien life one day. But if we hope for a good outcome after first
contact, perhaps we need to be the kind of aliens we wish to meet. Rather than choosing violence and
war, perhaps we need to consider cooperation and altruism, no matter how difficult it might be to
do, or how strange our neighbours might be to us. After all, we hope that they will do the same.] Thanks for watching. Are you as convinced as me that alien life is out there? Or are you almost as
certain that it’s not? Let me know in the comments below. A big thanks to my members and patrons
who help make videos like these possible. If you want to support the future production of Astrum
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